Prediction of Outcome and Endovascular Treatment Benefit: Validation and Update of the MR PREDICTS Decision Tool

Mechanical thrombectomy in stroke patients of advanced age with score-based prediction of outcome

BACKGROUND

Stroke patients ≥80 years constituted only 15% in randomised trials on mechanical thrombectomy (MT), but is a considerable higher proportion in clinical practice. Association of clinical variables collected before MT with functional outcome has not been independently described in these patients, while being important in the decision of patient eligibility for MT.

METHODS

We included patients consecutively at a single centre (2017-2021) categorised as octogenarians (age: 80-89 years) or nonagenarians (age: 90-99 years). Functional outcome at 90 days was defined as fair (modified Rankin Scale (mRS) 0-3) or poor (mRS 4-6). Clinical variables collected before MT were analysed for association with shift of mRS in a poor direction. Significant predictors were used to produce a risk score of fair outcome. Significance was set at the p < 0.05 level.

RESULTS

Nonagenarians (n = 43, 15.5%) compared to octogenarians (n = 235, 84.5%) less likely achieved fair outcome (20.9% vs. 46.0%, p < 0.01) with higher mortality (65.1% vs. 31.9%, p < 0.01). Significant predictors of outcome were: age, adjusted odds ratio (aOR) = 0.91 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.86-0.97); pre-stroke mRS, aOR = 0.57 (95% CI: 0.44-0.73); National Institute of Health Stroke Scale at admission, aOR = 0.91 (95% CI: 0.87-0.95); Alberta Stroke Program Early Computed Tomography, aOR = 1.23 (95% CI: 1.05-1.45). After bootstrap validation, the area under the curve of the risk score was 0.74 and the optimal cut-off for fair outcome was a score of >7 points.

CONCLUSIONS

One in two octogenarians achieved fair outcome, however, only one in five nonagenarians had fair outcome. The clinical risk score could be considered as guidance when deciding patient eligibility for MT.

Predictors of futile recanalization after intravenous thrombolysis in stroke patients transferred for endovascular treatment

Some patients with large vessel occlusion (LVO) achieve insufficient clinical improvement (futile recanalization, FR) after intravenous thrombolysis (IVT) during inter-hospital transfer for thrombectomy, while others show good outcomes (effective recanalization, ER). This study assessed FR and ER rates among patients treated with IVT at non-thrombectomy primary stroke centers (PSCs) and aimed to identify predictors of FR. We analyzed data from two PSC registries (2016-2022). Inclusion criteria: IVT treatment, anterior circulation LVO, NIHSS ≥ 6, ASPECTS ≥ 5, and documented recanalization at thrombectomy centers. FR was defined as a 90-day poor outcome (mRS 3-6) despite LVO recanalization on initial angiography. Among 190 PSC patients with documented recanalization post-IVT, 113 (59.5%) had FR. Multivariable analysis identified age (OR = 1.03, 95%CI = 1.01-1.07, p = 0.021), NIHSS at the PSC (OR = 1.13, 95%CI = 1.05-1.22, p = 0.026), and collateral status (OR = 0.54, 95%CI = 0.39-0.75, p = 0.001) as independent predictors of FR and 90-day mortality. A model combining age, NIHSS, and collateral score provided the highest predictive accuracy for FR and mortality. FR is common in LVO-related ischemic stroke treated with IVT at non-thrombectomy centers. FR is common in LVO-related ischemic stroke treated with IVT at non-thrombectomy centers. Identifying predictors of FR can guide clinicians in early decision-making, allowing for tailored interventions and informed discussions about expected outcomes, potentially leading to more optimized patient management.The GOTIC-VTE trial Unique identifier, jRCTs031180124; Registration date, April 06, 2017.

Assessment of automated TICI scoring during endovascular treatment in patients with an ischemic stroke

BACKGROUND

The extended Thrombolysis in Cerebral Infarction (eTICI) score is used in digital subtraction angiography (DSA) to quantify reperfusion grade in patients with an ischemic stroke who undergo endovascular thrombectomy (EVT). A previously developed automatic TICI score (autoTICI), which quantifies the ratio of reperfused pixels after EVT, demonstrates good correlation with eTICI.

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the autoTICI model in a large multicenter registry of patients with an ischemic stroke, investigate the association with visual eTICI, and compare prediction of functional outcome between autoTICI and eTICI.

METHODS

Patients in the MR CLEAN Registry with an internal carotid artery, M1, and M2 occlusion were selected if both anteroposterior and lateral views were present in pre- and post-EVT DSA scans. The autoTICI score was compared with eTICI in predicting favorable functional outcome (modified Rankin Scale score 0-2), using area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUC) with a multivariable logistic regression model including known prognostic characteristics.

RESULTS

In total 421 of 3637 patients were included. AutoTICI was significantly associated with eTICI non-linearly (below 70% cOR=2.3 (95% CI 2.1 to 2.5), above 70% cOR=1.6 (95% CI 1.6 to 1.7) per 10% increment). The AUC of the model predicting favorable functional outcome was similar for autoTICI and eTICI (0.86, 95% CI 0.82 to 0.92 vs 0.86, 95% CI 0.83 to 0.90, P=0.73) and was higher than for a model with prognostic patient characteristics alone (0.86 vs 0.84, P=0.01).

CONCLUSION

Automatic quantitative assessment of reperfusion after EVT is associated with eTICI, and prediction of functional outcome is similar to that with visual eTICI. Therefore, autoTICI could be used as an alternative or additional review for visual reperfusion assessment to facilitate reproducible and uniform reporting.

Outcomes and safety of endovascular treatment from 6 to 24 hours in patients with a pre-stroke moderate disability (mRS 3): a multicenter retrospective study

BACKGROUND

Approximately 30% of patients presenting with acute ischemic stroke (AIS) due to large vessel occlusion have pre-stroke modified Rankin Scale (mRS) scores ≥2. We aimed to investigate the safety and outcomes of endovascular treatment (EVT) in patients with AIS with moderate pre-stroke disability (mRS score 3) in an extended time frame (ie, 6-24 hours from the last time known well).

METHODS

Data were collected from five centers in Europe and the USA from January 2018 to January 2023 and included 180 patients who underwent EVT in an extended time frame. Patients were divided into two groups of 90 each (Group 1: pre-mRS 0-2; Group 2: pre-mRS 3; 71% women, mean age 80.3±11.9 years). Primary outcomes were: (1) 3-month good clinical outcome (Group 1: mRS 0-2, Group 2: mRS 0-3) and ΔmRS; (2) any hemorrhagic transformation (HT); and (3) symptomatic HT. Secondary outcomes were successful and complete recanalization after EVT and 3-month mortality.

RESULTS

No between-group differences were found in the 3-month good clinical outcome (26.6% vs 25.5%, P=0.974), any HT (26.6% vs 22%, P=0.733), and symptomatic HT (8.9 vs 4.4%, P=0.232). Unexpectedly, ΔmRS was significantly smaller in Group 2 compared with Group 1 (1.64±1.61 vs 2.97±1.69, P<0.001). No between-group differences were found in secondary outcomes.

CONCLUSION

Patients with pre-stroke mRS 3 are likely to have similar outcomes after EVT in the extended time frame to those with pre-stroke mRS 0-2, with no difference in safety.

Contralateral Neurovascular Coupling in Patients with Ischemic Stroke After Endovascular Thrombectomy

BACKGROUND

Neurovascular coupling (NVC) refers to the process of aligning cerebral blood flow with neuronal metabolic demand. This study explores the potential of contralateral NVC-linking neural electrical activity on the stroke side with cerebral blood flow velocity (CBFV) on the contralesional side-as a marker of physiological function of the brain. Our aim was to examine the association between contralateral NVC and neurological outcomes in patients with ischemic stroke following endovascular thrombectomy.

METHODS

We concurrently recorded the CBFVs of the middle cerebral arteries and electroencephalographic (EEG) signals of patients after endovascular thrombectomy. We employed phase-amplitude cross-frequency coupling to quantify the contralateral coupling between EEG activity on the stroke side and CBFV on the contralesional side. Key neurological outcomes were measured, including changes in National Institute of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) scores, infarct volume progression over 7 days, and modified Rankin Scale scores at 90 days.

RESULTS

A total of 52 study participants were enrolled in our study (mean age 61.5 ± 10.4 years; 90.4% male; median preprocedural NIHSS score 14 [interquartile range 10-17]). We successfully computed contralateral NVC in 48 study participants. A significant association emerged between contralateral coupling and improvements in NIHSS scores over 7 days (theta band, P = 0.030) and in infarct volume progression (delta band, P = 0.001; theta band, P = 0.013). Stronger contralateral NVC in the delta and theta bands correlated with better outcomes at 90 days (adjusted odds ratio for delta 7.53 [95% confidence interval 1.13-50.30], P = 0.037; adjusted odds ratio for theta 6.36 [95% confidence interval 1.09-37.01], P = 0.039).

CONCLUSIONS

A better contralateral coupling between stroke-side EEG and contralesional CBFV is associated with favorable neurological outcomes, suggesting that contralateral NVC analysis may aid in assessing brain function after recanalization. Replication with a deeper understanding of the mechanisms is needed before clinical translation.

APMCG-1 attenuates ischemic stroke injury by reducing oxidative stress and apoptosis and promoting angiogenesis via activating PI3K/AKT pathway

Ischemic stroke (IS) is a major cause of mortality and morbidity worldwide. Beyond thrombolysis, strategies targeting anti-oxidative apoptosis and angiogenesis are considered prospective therapeutic strategies. Nevertheless, existing natural and clinical remedies have limited efficacy in the management of IS. Moreover, despite their millennial legacy of IS remediation, natural remedies such as ginseng incur high production costs. The novel glycopeptide APMCG-1, extracted from mountain-cultivated ginseng dregs in our previous study, is a potent therapeutic candidate for IS. This study investigated APMCG-1's remedial mechanisms against IS injury using an H2O2-induced oxidative stress paradigm in human umbilical vein endothelial cells (HUVECs) emulating ischemic endothelial cells, in a ponatinib-induced zebrafish IS model, and in rat middle cerebral artery occlusion (MCAO) prototypes. Cellular assays confirmed the proficiency of APMCG-1 in preventing oxidative stress and cell death, fostering regeneration, and facilitating neovascularization within the H2O2-stressed HUVECs framework. Moreover, APMCG-1 augmented hemodynamic velocity, oxidative stress mitigation, apoptosis reduction, and motor enhancement in a zebrafish model of IS. In MCAO rats, APMCG-1 ameliorated neurological deficits and cerebral injury, as evidenced by increased neurological scores and diminished infarct dimensions. In cells and animal models, APMCG-1 activated the PI3K/AKT signaling pathway, modulating factors such as Nrf2, Bcl-2, Caspase 3, eNOS, and VEGFA, thereby ameliorating cellular oxidative distress and catalyzing angiogenesis. Collectively, these results demonstrate the potential protective effects of APMCG-1 in IS pharmacotherapy and its prospective utility as an herbal-derived IS treatment modality.

Association of renal biomarkers with fast progressor phenotype and related outcomes in anterior circulation large vessel occlusion stroke

Background

Renal dysfunction is a known predictor of long-term functional dependency after anterior circulation large vessel occlusion (ACLVO) stroke. However, the impact of renal dysfunction on early infarct growth rate (IGR) has not been previously demonstrated. The objective of this study was to define the association of creatinine-based renal biomarkers with fast or slow progressor phenotypes and related clinical outcomes in ACLVO stroke.

Methods

This retrospective study examined patients with acute intracranial internal carotid artery or middle cerebral artery-M1 occlusions admitted between 2014 and 2019. Patients were included if they received baseline CT perfusion (CTP) or MRI on presentation within 24 h of estimated stroke onset. Infarct growth rate (IGR) was determined by ischemic core volume on CTP or MRI divided by time from stroke onset to imaging. IGR was used to stratify fast progressor (IGR ≥10 mL/h) and slow progressor (IGR < 10 mL/h) status. Renal dysfunction was assessed based on serum creatinine and estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) on presenting laboratories. Logistic regression models, adjusted for significant covariates, identified independent associations between renal dysfunction biomarkers, progressor status, and clinical outcomes based on modified Rankin Scale (mRS) at 90 days.

Results

Among 230 patients with ACLVO, 29% were fast progressors, with median serum creatinine levels higher than slow progressors (1.1 vs. 0.9 mg/dL, p < 0.05) and lower median eGFR (66.2 vs. 69.0 mL/min/1.73m2, p < 0.05). Elevated creatinine (≥1.2 mg/dL) was independently associated with fast progressor status (adjusted OR 2.37, 95% CI 1.18-4.77), worse 90-day mRS (adjusted OR 1.88, 95% CI 1.01-3.51) and mortality (adjusted OR 2.57, 95% CI 1.14-5.79). Reduced eGFR (<60 mL/min/1.73m2) was independently associated with fast progressor status (adjusted OR 2.38, 95% CI 1.14-4.94), but not with 90-day mRS or mortality.

Conclusion

Serum creatinine-based biomarkers of renal dysfunction were associated with fast progressor phenotype of ACLVO stroke, and worse clinical outcomes, which may help identify such patients earlier during emergency evaluation for expedited access to EVT. Future prospective studies are warranted to confirm and test implementation of these findings.

Endovascular Stroke Thrombectomy for Patients With Large Ischemic Core: A Review

Importance

Recently, 6 randomized clinical trials-RESCUE-Japan-LIMIT (Recovery by Endovascular Salvage for Cerebral Ultra-Acute Embolism-Japan Large Ischemic Core Trial), ANGEL-ASPECT (Trial of Endovascular Therapy for Acute Ischemic Stroke With Large Infarct), SELECT2 (Trial of Endovascular Thrombectomy for Large Ischemic Strokes), TESLA (Thrombectomy for Emergent Salvage of Large Anterior Circulation Ischemic Stroke), TENSION (Endovascular Thrombectomy for Acute Ischemic Stroke With Established Large Infarct), and LASTE (Large Stroke Therapy Evaluation)-have concluded their investigations on the efficacy and safety of endovascular thrombectomy (EVT) for the treatment of patients with ischemic stroke, anterior-circulation large vessel occlusions, and large areas of ischemic changes defined as an Alberta Stroke Program Early Computed Tomography Score (ASPECTS) of 5 or less. Overall, the results appeared to be positive, with 5 of the 6 trials meeting their primary efficacy end point, and 1 trial that was a near miss. However, questions remain regarding how these trial results should be interpreted and incorporated into routine clinical practice.

Observations

In this narrative review and analysis of published trials, important nuances of the available clinical data were identified, and important areas of lingering uncertainty were highlighted, including the efficacy and safety of EVT for patients with a low ASPECTS score in late treatment windows and those with large core volumes. Also emphasized was the possibly important role of advanced neuroimaging modalities such as perfusion and magnetic resonance imaging when making EVT treatment decisions for select patients with low ASPECTS scores.

Conclusions and Relevance

Recent trial data provide strong evidence that EVT is safe and effective for patients with anterior, large vessel-occlusion stroke and low ASPECTS scores who present within 6 hours from stroke onset. However, patient outcomes often remain poor despite EVT treatment. The efficacy and safety of EVT for patients with low ASPECTS scores who present beyond 6 hours of stroke onset remain uncertain, and the current trial data seem too scarce to justify forgoing advanced stroke imaging during this extended time window. Furthermore, the efficacy and safety of EVT for patients with large core volumes (100 mL or greater) or M2 occlusions (ie, occlusions of the second segment of the middle cerebral artery) remain uncertain. Future research to better identify patients likely to meaningfully respond to EVT is needed to further optimize the stroke triage process and health care resource utilization.

Development and Validation of a Two-step Model to Predict Outcomes After Endovascular Treatment for Patients With Acute Ischemic Stroke

BACKGROUND

Physicians and patients are eager to know likely functional outcomes at different stages of treatment after acute ischemic stroke (AIS). The aim of this study was to develop and validate a 2-step model to assess prognosis at different time points (pre- and posttreatment) in patients with AIS having endovascular thrombectomy (EVT).

METHODS

The prediction model was developed using a prospective nationwide Chinese registry (ANGEL-ACT). A total of 1676 patients with AIS who underwent EVT were enrolled into the study and randomly divided into development (n=1351, 80%) and validation (n=325, 20%) cohorts. Multivariate logistic regression, least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression, and the random forest recursive feature elimination algorithm were used to select predictors of 90-day functional independence. We constructed the model via discrimination, calibration, decision curve analysis, and feature importance.

RESULTS

The incidence of 90-day functional independence was 46.3% and 40.6% in the development and validation cohorts, respectively. The area under the curve (AUC) for model 1 which included 5 pretreatment predictors (age, admission National Institutes for Health Stroke Scale score, admission glucose level, admission systolic blood pressure, and Alberta Stroke Program Early Computed Tomography score) was 0.699 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.668-0.730) in the development cohort and 0.658 (95% CI, 0.592-0.723) in the validation cohort. Two treatment-related predictors (time from stroke onset to puncture and successful reperfusion) were added to model 2 which had an AUC of 0.719 (95% CI, 0.688-0.749) and 0.650 (95% CI, 0.585-0.716) in the development cohort and validation cohorts, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The 2-step prediction model could be useful for predicting the functional independence in patients with AIS 90-days after EVT.

Incidence, Risk Factors, and Clinical Implications of Subarachnoid Hyperdensities on Flat-Panel Detector CT following Mechanical Thrombectomy in Patients with Anterior Circulation Acute Ischemic Stroke

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

Flat-panel detector CT immediately after mechanical thrombectomy can detect complications, including early hemorrhagic transformation and subarachnoid hyperdensities. The clinical significance of subarachnoid hyperdensities in patients undergoing mechanical thrombectomy remains unclear.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We studied 223 patients who underwent mechanical thrombectomy for anterior circulation stroke who had flat-panel detector CT performed immediately after the procedure and had follow-up imaging within 24 hours. Subarachnoid hyperdensity severity was categorized into 5 grades (subarachnoid hyperdensities, 0: absent to subarachnoid hyperdensities, IV: extensive). Baseline and procedural characteristics as well as outcome measures were analyzed using group comparisons and multivariable logistic regression analyses.

RESULTS

Overall, 100/223 (45%) patients showed subarachnoid hyperdensities on immediate postinterventional flat-panel detector CT. The factors associated with an increased subarachnoid hyperdensity risk were the following: medium-vessel occlusion or distal-vessel occlusion compared with a large-vessel occlusion, a more distal device position, a higher number of device passes, a larger volume of contrast applied, worse final reperfusion expanded TICI, and after receiving IV thrombolysis. The occurrence of subarachnoid hyperdensity grades II-IV was independently associated with worse functional outcomes (adjusted OR for mRS, 3-6: 2.2; 95% CI 1.1-4.3), whereas patients with subarachnoid hyperdensity grade I had outcomes similar to those in patients without subarachnoid hyperdensities.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study identified risk factors for subarachnoid hyperdensities, most of which reflect increasingly challenging procedures or more peripheral recanalization attempts. The presence of subarachnoid hyperdensity grades II-IV was associated with poorer outcomes, suggesting the need for personalized strategies to reduce its incidence and severity or potentially improve recovery after subarachnoid hyperdensities.

External validation of clinical risk prediction score for elderly treated with endovascular thrombectomy

BACKGROUND AND AIM

The thrombectomy in the elderly prediction score (TERPS) for functional outcome after anterior circulation endovascular therapy (EVT) in patients ≥ 80 years was recently developed. The aim of this study was to assess predictors of functional outcome in the elderly and validate the prediction model.

METHODS

Consecutive patients treated with EVT from the Oslo Acute Reperfusion Stroke Study were evaluated for inclusion. Clinical and radiological parameters were used to calculate the TERPS, and functional outcome were assessed at 3-month follow-up.

RESULTS

Out of 1028 patients who underwent EVT for acute ischemic stroke from January 2017 to July 2022, 218 (21.2%) patients ≥ 80 years with anterior ischemic stroke were included. Fair outcome, defined as modified Rankin scale ≤ 3 (mRS), was achieved in 117 (53.7%). In bivariate analyses, male sex (p 0.035), age (p 0.025), baseline National Institute of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS, p < 0.001), pre-stroke mRS (p 0.002) and Alberta Stroke Program Early Computed Tomography score (ASPECTS, p 0.001) were associated with fair outcome. Significant predictors for fair outcome in regression analyses were lower pre-stroke mRS, adjusted odd ratio, (aOR) 0.67 (95% CI 0.50-0.91, p 0.01), NIHSS, aOR 0.92 (95% CI 0.87-0.97, p 0.002), and higher ASPECTS, aOR 1.22 (95% CI 1.03-1.44, p 0.023). The area under the curve (AUC) using TERPS was 0.74 (95% CI 0.67-0.80).

CONCLUSIONS

The risk prediction score TERPS showed moderate performance in this external validation. Other variables may still be included to improve the model and validation using other cohorts is recommended.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

NCT06220981.

HERMES-24 Score Derivation and Validation for Simple and Robust Outcome Prediction After Large Vessel Occlusion Treatment

BACKGROUND

Clinicians need simple and highly predictive prognostic scores to assist practical decision-making. We aimed to develop a simple outcome prediction score applied 24 hours after anterior circulation acute ischemic stroke treatment with endovascular thrombectomy and validate it in patients treated both with and without endovascular thrombectomy.

METHODS

Using the HERMES (Highly Effective Reperfusion Evaluated in Multiple Endovascular Stroke Trials) collaboration data set (n=1764), patients in the endovascular thrombectomy arm were divided randomly into a derivation cohort (n=430) and a validation cohort (n=441). From a set of candidate predictors, logistic regression modeling using forward variable selection was used to select a model that was both parsimonious and highly predictive for modified Rankin Scale (mRS) ≤2 at 90 days. The score was validated in validation cohort, control arm (n=893), and external validation cohorts from the ESCAPE-NA1 (Efficacy and Safety of Nerinetide for the Treatment of Acute Ischaemic Stroke; n=1066) and INTERRSeCT (Identifying New Approaches to Optimize Thrombus Characterization for Predicting Early Recanalization and Reperfusion With IV Alteplase and Other Treatments Using Serial CT Angiography; n=614).

RESULTS

In the derivation cohort, we selected 2 significant predictors of mRS ≤2 (National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score at 24 hours and age [β-coefficient, 0.34 and 0.06]) and derived the HERMES-24 score: age (years)/10+National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score at 24 hours. The HERMES-24 score was highly predictive for mRS ≤2 (c-statistic 0.907 [95% CI, 0.879-0.935]) in the derivation cohort. In the validation cohort and the control arm, the HERMES-24 score predicts mRS ≤2 (c-statistic, 0.914 [95% CI, 0.886-0.944] and 0.909 [95% CI, 0.887-0.930]). Observed provability of mRS ≤2 ranged between 3.1% and 3.4% when HERMES-24 score ≥25, while it ranged between 90.6% and 93.0% when HERMES-24 score <10 in the derivation cohort, validation cohort, and control arm. The HERMES-24 score also showed c-statistics of 0.894 and 0.889 for mRS ≤2 in the ESCAPE-NA1 and INTERRSeCT populations.

CONCLUSIONS

The post-treatment HERMES-24 score is a simple validated score that predicts a 3-month outcome after anterior circulation large vessel occlusion stroke regardless of intervention, which helps prognostic discussion with families on day 2.

Days Alive and Out of Hospital as an Outcome Measure in Patients Receiving Hyperacute Stroke Intervention

BACKGROUND

Patient outcome after stroke is frequently assessed with clinical scales such as the modified Rankin Scale score (mRS). Days alive and out of hospital at 90 days (DAOH-90), which measures survival, time spent in hospital or rehabilitation settings, readmission and institutionalization, is an objective outcome measure that can be obtained from large administrative data sets without the need for patient contact. We aimed to assess the comparability of DAOH with mRS and its relationship with other prognostic variables after acute stroke reperfusion therapy.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Consecutive patients with ischemic stroke treated with intravenous thrombolysis or endovascular thrombectomy were analyzed. DAOH-90 was calculated from a national minimum data set, a mandatory nationwide administrative database. mRS score at day 90 (mRS-90) was assessed with in-person or telephone interviews. The study included 1278 patients with ischemic stroke (714 male, median age 70 [59-79], median National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score 14 [9-20]). Median DAOH-90 was 71 [29-84] and median mRS-90 score was 3 [2-5]. DAOH-90 was correlated with admission National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score (Spearman rho -0.44, P<0.001) and Alberta Stroke Program Early CT [Computed Tomography] Score (Spearman rho 0.24, P<0.001). There was a strong association between mRS-90 and DAOH-90 (Spearman rho correlation -0.79, P<0.001). Area under receiver operating curve for predicting mRS score >0 was 0.86 (95% CI, 0.84-0.88), mRS score >1 was 0.88 (95% CI, 0.86-0.90) and mRS score >2 was 0.90 (95% CI, 0.89-0.92).

CONCLUSIONS

In patients with stroke treated with reperfusion therapies, DAOH-90 shows reasonable comparability to the more established outcome measure of mRS-90. DAOH-90 can be readily obtained from administrative databases and therefore has the potential to be used in large-scale clinical trials and comparative effectiveness studies.

CLEAR Thrombectomy Score: An Index to Estimate the Probability of Good Functional Outcome With or Without Endovascular Treatment in the Late Window for Anterior Circulation Occlusion

BACKGROUND

With the expanding eligibility for endovascular therapy (EVT) of patients presenting in the late window (6-24 hours after last known well), we aimed to derive a score to predict favorable outcomes associated with EVT versus best medical management.

METHODS AND RESULTS

A multinational observational cohort of patients from the CLEAR (Computed Tomography for Late Endovascular Reperfusion) study with proximal intracranial occlusion (2014-2022) was queried (n=58 sites). Logistic regression analyses were used to derive a 9-point score for predicting good functional outcome (modified Rankin Scale score 0-2 or return to premorbid modified Rankin Scale score) at 90 days, with sensitivity analyses for prespecified subgroups conducted using bootstrapped random forest regressions. Secondary outcomes included 90-day functional independence (modified Rankin Scale score 0-2), poor outcome (modified Rankin Scale score 5-6), and 90-day survival. The score was externally validated with a single-center cohort (2014-2023). Of the 3231 included patients (n=2499 EVT), a 9-point score included age, early computed tomography ischemic changes, and stroke severity, with higher points indicating a higher probability of a good functional outcome. The areas under the curve for the primary outcome among EVT and best medical management subgroups were 0.72 (95% CI, 0.70-0.74) and 0.87 (95% CI, 0.84-0.90), respectively, with similar performance in the external validation cohort (area under the curve, 0.71 [95% CI, 0.66-0.76]). There was a significant interaction between the score and EVT for good functional outcome, functional independence, and poor outcome (all Pinteraction<0.001), with greater benefit favoring patients with lower and midrange scores.

CONCLUSIONS

This score is a pragmatic tool that can estimate the probability of a good outcome with EVT in the late window.

REGISTRATION

URL: https://www.Clinicaltrials.gov; Unique identifier: NCT04096248.

Development and validation of outcome prediction model for reperfusion therapy in acute ischemic stroke using nomogram and machine learning

OBJECTIVE

To develop logistic regression nomogram and machine learning (ML)-based models to predict 3-month unfavorable functional outcome for acute ischemic stroke (AIS) patients undergoing reperfusion therapy.

METHODS

Patients undergoing reperfusion therapy (intravenous thrombolysis and/or endovascular treatment) were prospectively recruited. Unfavorable outcome was defined as 3-month modified Rankin Scale (mRS) score 3-6. The independent risk factors associated with unfavorable outcome were obtained by regression analysis and included in the prediction model. The performance of nomogram was assessed by the area under the curve (AUC), calibration curve, and decision curve analysis (DCA). ML models were compared with nomogram using AUC; the generalizability of all models was ascertained in an external cohort.

RESULTS

A total of 505 patients were enrolled, with 256 in the model construction, and 249 in the external validation. Five variables were identified as prognostic factors: baseline NIHSS, D-dimer level, random blood glucose (RBG), blood urea nitrogen (BUN), and systolic blood pressure (SBP) before reperfusion. The AUC values of nomogram were 0.865, 0.818, and 0.779 in the training set, test set, and external validation, respectively. The calibration curve and DCA indicated appreciable reliability and good net benefits. The best three ML models were extra trees (ET), CatBoost, and random forest (RF) models; all of them showed favorable discrimination in the training cohort, and confirmed in the test and external sets.

CONCLUSION

Baseline NIHSS, D-dimer, RBG, BUN, and SBP before reperfusion were independent predictors for 3-month unfavorable outcome after reperfusion therapy in AIS patients. Both nomogram and ML models showed good discrimination and generalizability.

Alterations of Hemostatic Molecular Markers During Acute Large Vessel Occlusion Stroke

BACKGROUND

This study aimed to investigate regional levels of TAT (thrombin-antithrombin complex), PIC (plasmin-α2 plasmin inhibitor complex), t-PAIC (tissue plasminogen activator-plasminogen activator inhibitor complex), sTM (soluble thrombomodulin), and D-dimer, along with their associations with clinical and procedural characteristics in patients with acute ischemic stroke undergoing endovascular thrombectomy.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We retrospectively analyzed 166 consecutive patients with acute ischemic stroke (62±11.54 years of age, 34.3% women) using prospectively maintained clinical databases and blood samples from local ischemic (proximal to thrombus) and systemic (femoral artery, self-control) arterial compartments. Levels of TAT, PIC, t-PAIC, and D-dimer were significantly elevated, whereas sTM was significantly reduced, in local ischemic regions compared with their systemic levels. Each 1-unit increase in ischemic TAT (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 1.086 [95% CI, 1.03-1.145]; P=0.002; area under the curve [AUC], 0.833) and PIC (aOR, 1.337 [95% CI, 1.087-1.644]; P=0.006; AUC, 0.771) correlated significantly with higher symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage risk. Additionally, each 1-unit increase in ischemic TAT (aOR, 1.076 [95% CI, 1.016-1.139]; P=0.013; AUC, 0.797), PIC (aOR, 1.554 [95% CI, 1.194-2.022]; P=0.001; AUC, 0.798), and sTM (aOR, 0.769 [95% CI, 0.615-0.961]; P=0.021; AUC, 0.756) was significantly associated with an increased risk of an unfavorable 90-day outcome (modified Rankin scale of 3-6). These hemostatic molecules, individually or combined, significantly improved the predictive power of conventional risk factors, as evidenced by significant increases in net reclassification improvement and integrated discrimination improvement (all P<0.01).

CONCLUSIONS

We observed a hyperactive state of the coagulation-fibrinolysis system within the local ischemic region during hyperacute stroke. Rapid automated measurement of hemostatic molecular markers, particularly TAT, PIC, and sTM, during intra-arterial procedures may provide additional information for stroke risk stratification and therapeutic decision-making, and warrants further investigation.

Clinical consequence of vessel perforations during endovascular treatment of acute ischemic stroke

PURPOSE

Endovascular treatment (EVT) of acute ischemic stroke can be complicated by vessel perforation. We studied the incidence and determinants of vessel perforations. In addition, we studied the association of vessel perforations with functional outcome, and the association between location of perforation on digital subtraction angiography (DSA) and functional outcome, using a large EVT registry.

METHODS

We included all patients in the MR CLEAN Registry who underwent EVT. We used DSA to determine whether EVT was complicated by a vessel perforation. We analyzed the association with baseline clinical and interventional parameters using logistic regression models. Functional outcome was measured using the modified Rankin Scale at 90 days. The association between vessel perforation and angiographic imaging features and functional outcome was studied using ordinal logistic regression models adjusted for prognostic parameters. These associations were expressed as adjusted common odds ratios (acOR).

RESULTS

Vessel perforation occurred in 74 (2.6%) of 2794 patients who underwent EVT. Female sex (aOR 2.0 (95% CI 1.2-3.2)) and distal occlusion locations (aOR 2.2  (95% CI 1.3-3.5)) were associated with increased risk of vessel perforation. Functional outcome was worse in patients with vessel perforation (acOR 0.38 (95% CI 0.23-0.63)) compared to patients without a vessel perforation. No significant association was found between location of perforation and functional outcome.

CONCLUSION

The incidence of vessel perforation during EVT in this cohort was low, but has severe clinical consequences. Female patients and patients treated at distal occlusion locations are at higher risk.

Application of a nomogram model for the prediction of 90-day poor outcomes following mechanical thrombectomy in patients with acute anterior circulation large-vessel occlusion

Background

The past decade has witnessed advancements in mechanical thrombectomy (MT) for acute large-vessel occlusions (LVOs). However, only approximately half of the patients with LVO undergoing MT show the best/independent 90-day favorable outcome. This study aimed to develop a nomogram for predicting 90-day poor outcomes in patients with LVO treated with MT.

Methods

A total of 187 patients who received MT were retrospectively analyzed. Factors associated with 90-day poor outcomes (defined as mRS of 4-6) were determined by univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyzes. One best-fit nomogram was established to predict the risk of a 90-day poor outcome, and a concordance index was utilized to evaluate the performance of the model. Additionally, 145 patients from a single stroke center were retrospectively recruited as the validation cohort to test the newly established nomogram.

Results

The overall incidence of 90-day poor outcomes was 45.16%, affecting 84 of 186 patients in the training set. Moreover, five variables, namely, age (odds ratio [OR]: 1.049, 95% CI [1.016-1.083]; p = 0.003), glucose level (OR: 1.163, 95% CI [1.038-1.303]; p = 0.009), baseline National Institute of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) score (OR: 1.066, 95% CI [0.995-1.142]; p = 0.069), unsuccessful recanalization (defined as a TICI grade of 0 to 2a) (OR: 3.730, 95% CI [1.688-8.245]; p = 0.001), and early neurological deterioration (END, defined as an increase of ≥4 points between the baseline NIHSS score and the NIHSS score at 24 h after MT) (OR: 3.383, 95% CI [1.411-8.106]; p = 0.006), were included in the nomogram to predict the potential risk of poor outcomes at 90 days following MT in LVO patients, with a C-index of 0.763 (0.693-0.832) in the training set and 0.804 (0.719-0.889) in the validation set.

Conclusion

The proposed nomogram provided clinical evidence for the effective control of these risk factors before or during the process of MT surgery in LVO patients.

Mediation of Age and Thrombectomy Outcome by Neuroimaging Markers of Frailty in Patients With Stroke

Importance

Age is a leading predictor of poor outcomes after brain injuries like stroke. The extent to which age is associated with preexisting burdens of brain changes, visible on neuroimaging but rarely considered in acute decision-making or trials, is unknown.

Objectives

To explore the mediation of age on functional outcome by neuroimaging markers of frailty (hereinafter neuroimaging frailty) in patients with acute ischemic stroke receiving endovascular thrombectomy (EVT).

Design, Setting, and Participants

This cohort study was a post hoc analysis of the Safety and Efficacy of Nerinetide (NA-1) in Subjects Undergoing Endovascular Thrombectomy for Stroke (ESCAPE-NA1) randomized clinical trial, which investigated intravenous (IV) nerinetide in patients who underwent EVT within a 12-hour treatment window. Patients from 48 acute care hospitals in 8 countries (Canada, US, Germany, Korea, Australia, Ireland, UK, and Sweden) were enrolled between March 1, 2017, and August 12, 2019. Markers of brain frailty (brain atrophy [subcortical or cortical], white matter disease [periventricular or deep], and the number of lacunes and chronic infarctions) were retrospectively assessed while reviewers were blinded to other imaging (eg, computed tomography angiography, computed tomography perfusion) or outcome variables. All analyses were done between December 1, 2022, and January 31, 2023.

Exposures

All patients received EVT and were randomized to IV nerinetide (2.6 mg/kg of body weight) and alteplase (if indicated) treatment vs best medical management.

Main Outcome and Measures

The primary outcome was the proportion of the total effect of age on 90-day outcome, mediated by neuroimaging frailty. A combined mediation was also examined by clinical features associated with frailty and neuroimaging markers (total frailty). Structural equation modeling was used to create latent variables as potential mediators, adjusting for baseline, early ischemic changes; stroke severity; onset-to-puncture time; nerinetide treatment; and alteplase treatment.

Results

Among a total of 1105 patients enrolled in the study, 1102 (median age, 71 years [IQR, 61-80 years]; 554 [50.3%] male) had interpretable imaging at baseline. Of these participants, 549 (49.8%) were treated with IV nerinetide. The indirect effect of age on 90-day outcome, mediated by neuroimaging frailty, was associated with 85.1% of the total effect (β coefficient, 0.04 per year [95% CI, 0.02-0.06 per year]; P < .001). When including both frailty constructs, the indirect pathway was associated with essentially 100% of the total effect (β coefficient, 0.07 per year [95% CI, 0.03-0.10 per year]; P = .001).

Conclusions and Relevance

In this cohort study, a secondary analysis of the ESCAPE-NA1 trial, most of the association between age and 90-day outcome was mediated by neuroimaging frailty, underscoring the importance of features like brain atrophy and small vessel disease, as opposed to chronological age alone, in predicting poststroke outcomes. Future trials could include such frailty features to stratify randomization or improve adjustment in outcome analyses.

Predicting outcome in acute stroke with large vessel occlusion-application and validation of MR PREDICTS in the ESCAPE-NA1 population

BACKGROUND

Predicting outcome after endovascular treatment for acute ischemic stroke is challenging. We aim to investigate differences between predicted and observed outcomes in patients with acute ischemic stroke treated with endovascular treatment and to evaluate the performance of a validated outcome prediction score.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

MR PREDICTS is an outcome prediction tool based on a logistic regression model designed to predict the treatment benefit of endovascular treatment based on the MR CLEAN and HERMES populations. ESCAPE-NA1 is a randomized trial of nerinetide vs. placebo in patients with acute stroke and large vessel occlusion. We applied MR PREDICTS to patients in the control arm of ESCAPE-NA1. Model performance was assessed by calculating its discriminative ability and calibration.

RESULTS

Overall, 556/1105 patients (50.3%) in the ESCAPE-NA1-trial were randomized to the control arm, 435/556 (78.2%) were treated within 6 h of symptom onset. Good outcome (modified Rankin scale 0-2) at 3 months was achieved in 275/435 patients (63.2%), the predicted probability of good outcome was 52.5%. Baseline characteristics were similar in the study and model derivation cohort except for age (ESCAPE-NA1: mean: 70 y vs. HERMES: 66 y), hypertension (72% vs. 57%), and collaterals (good collaterals, 15% vs. 44%). Compared to HERMES we observed higher rates of successful reperfusion (TICI 2b-3, ESCAPE-NA1: 87% vs. HERMES: 71%) and faster times from symptom onset to reperfusion (median: 201 min vs. 286 min). Model performance was good, indicated by a c-statistic of 0.76 (95%confidence interval: 0.71-0.81).

CONCLUSION

Outcome-prediction using models created from HERMES data, based on information available in the emergency department underestimated the actual outcome in patients with acute ischemic stroke and large vessel occlusion receiving endovascular treatment despite overall good model performance, which might be explained by differences in quality of and time to reperfusion. These findings underline the importance of timely and successful reperfusion for functional outcomes in acute stroke patients.

Prognostic value of collateral perfusion estimation by arterial spin labeling for acute anterior circulation ischemic stroke

PURPOSE

This study aimed to verify the value of arterial spin labeling (ASL) collateral perfusion estimation for predicting functional outcomes in acute anterior circulation ischemic stroke.

METHODS

This secondary analysis of an ongoing prospective observational study included data from participants with acute ischemic stroke due to steno-occlusion of the internal carotid artery and/or the middle cerebral artery within 8 h of symptom onset. We compared the collateral map, which is a 5-phase collateral imaging derived from dynamic contrast-enhanced magnetic resonance angiography, and ASL to validate the ASL collateral perfusion estimation. Multiple logistic regression analyses were conducted to identify independent predictors of favorable functional outcomes.

RESULTS

One hundred forty-eight participants (68 ± 13 years, 96 men) were evaluated. The ASL collateral perfusion grade was positively correlated with the collateral perfusion grade of the collateral map (P < .001). Younger age (OR = 0.53, 95% CI = 0.36-0.78, P = .002), lower baseline NIHSS score (OR = 0.85, 95% CI = 0.78-0.92, P < .001), intermediate ASL collateral perfusion grade (OR = 4.02, 95% CI = 1.43-11.26, P = .008), good ASL collateral perfusion grade (OR = 26.37, 95% CI = 1.06-655.01, P = .046), and successful reperfusion (OR = 5.84, 95% CI = 2.08-16.42, P < .001) were independently associated with favorable functional outcomes.

CONCLUSION

ASL collateral perfusion estimation provides prognostic information, which can be helpful in guiding management decisions.

Predicting Penumbra Salvage and Infarct Growth in Acute Ischemic Stroke: A Multifactor Survival Game

BACKGROUND

Effective treatment of acute ischemic stroke requires reperfusion of salvageable tissue. We investigated the predictors of penumbra salvage (PS) and infarct growth (IG) in a large cohort of stroke patients.

METHODS

In the ASTRAL registry from 2003 to 2016, we selected middle cerebral artery strokes <24 h with a high-quality CT angiography and CT perfusion. PS and IG were correlated in multivariate analyses with clinical, biochemical and radiological variables, and with clinical outcomes.

RESULTS

Among 4090 patients, 551 were included in the study, 50.8% male, mean age (±SD) 66.3 ± 14.7 years, mean admission NIHSS (±SD 13.3 ± 7.1) and median onset-to-imaging-time (IQR) 170 (102 to 385) minutes. Increased PS was associated with the following: higher BMI and lower WBC; neglect; larger penumbra; absence of early ischemic changes, leukoaraiosis and other territory involvement; and higher clot burden score. Reduced IG was associated with the following: non-smokers; lower glycemia; larger infarct core; absence of early ischemic changes, chronic vascular brain lesions, other territory involvement, extracranial arterial pathology and hyperdense middle cerebral artery sign; and higher clot burden score. When adding subacute variables, recanalization was associated with increased PS and reduced IG, and the absence of haemorrhage with reduced IG. Collateral status was not significantly associated with IG nor with PS. Increased PS and reduced IG correlated with better 3- and 12-month outcomes.

CONCLUSION

In our comprehensive analysis, multiple factors were found to be responsible for PS or IG, the strongest being radiological features. These findings may help to better select patients, particularly for more aggressive or late acute stroke treatment.

Admission systolic blood pressure and effect of endovascular treatment in patients with ischaemic stroke: an individual patient data meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Current guidelines for ischaemic stroke treatment recommend a strict, but arbitrary, upper threshold of 185/110 mm Hg for blood pressure before endovascular thrombectomy. Nevertheless, whether admission blood pressure influences the effect of endovascular thrombectomy on outcome remains unknown. Our aim was to study the influence of admission systolic blood pressure (SBP) on functional outcome and on the effect of endovascular thrombectomy.

METHODS

We used individual patient data from seven randomised controlled trials (MR CLEAN, ESCAPE, EXTEND-IA, SWIFT PRIME, REVASCAT, PISTE, and THRACE) that randomly assigned patients with anterior circulation ischaemic stroke to endovascular thrombectomy (predominantly using stent retrievers) or standard medical therapy (control) between June 1, 2010, and April 30, 2015. We included all patients for whom SBP data were available at hospital admission. The primary outcome was functional outcome (modified Rankin Scale) at 90 days. We assessed the association of SBP with outcome in both the endovascular thrombectomy group and the control group using multilevel regression analysis and tested for non-linearity and for interaction between SBP and effect of endovascular thrombectomy, taking into account treatment with intravenous thrombolysis.

FINDINGS

We included 1753 patients (867 assigned to endovascular thrombectomy, 886 assigned to control) after excluding 11 patients for whom SBP data were missing. We found a non-linear association between SBP and functional outcome with an inflection point at 140 mm Hg (732 [42%] of 1753 patients had SBP <140 mm Hg and 1021 [58%] had SBP ≥140 mm Hg). Among patients with SBP of 140 mm Hg or higher, admission SBP was associated with worse functional outcome (adjusted common odds ratio [acOR] 0·86 per 10 mm Hg SBP increase; 95% CI 0·81-0·91). We found no association between SBP and functional outcome in patients with SBP less than 140 mm Hg (acOR 0·97 per 10 mm Hg SBP decrease, 95% CI 0·88-1·05). There was no significant interaction between SBP and effect of endovascular thrombectomy on functional outcome (p=0·96).

INTERPRETATION

In our meta-analysis, high admission SBP was associated with worse functional outcome after stroke, but SBP did not seem to negate the effect of endovascular thrombectomy. This finding suggests that admission SBP should not form the basis for decisions to withhold or delay endovascular thrombectomy for ischaemic stroke, but randomised trials are needed to further investigate this possibility.

FUNDING

Medtronic.

TICI-RANKIN mismatch: Poor clinical outcome despite complete endovascular reperfusion in the ETIS Registry

INTRODUCTION

Endovascular treatment (EVT) is a well-established technic for acute ischemic stroke, but despite a high recanalization rate of near 80%, at 3 months roughly 50% of patients have a poor functional outcome with a modified Rankin score (mRS) ≥3. The aim of this study was to determine predictive factors of poor functional outcomes in patients with complete recanalization after EVT, defined as modified thrombolysis in cerebral infarction (mTICI) 3.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

This retrospective analysis based on the prospective multicenter ETIS registry (endovascular treatment in ischemic stroke) in France included 795 patients from January 2015 and November 2019 with acute ischemic stroke due to anterior circulation occlusion and prestroke mRS 0-1, treated with EVT and who achieved complete recanalization. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression models were used to identify predictive factors of poor functional outcome.

RESULTS

365 patients (46%) showed a poor functional outcome (mRS>2). In backward-stepwise logistic regression analysis, poor functional outcome was independently associated with older age (OR per 10-year increase, 1.51; 95%CI, 1.30 to 1.75), higher admission NIHSS (OR per 1 point increase, 1.28; 95%CI, 1.21 to 1.34), absence of prior intravenous thrombolysis (OR, 0.59; 95%CI, 0.39 to 0.90), and an unfavorable 24-hour NIHSS change (24h-baseline) (OR, 0.82; 95%CI, 0.79 to 0.87). We calculated that patients whose 24h NIHSS decreased by less than 5 points are more at risk of a poor outcome, with a sensitivity and a specificity of 65.0%.

CONCLUSION

Despite complete reperfusion after EVT, half of patients had a poor clinical outcome. These patients, who were mainly older with a high initial NIHSS and an unfavorable post-EVT 24h NIHSS change, could represent a target population for early neurorepair and neurorestorative strategies.

Outcome prediction in large vessel occlusion ischemic stroke with or without endovascular stroke treatment: THRIVE-EVT

INTRODUCTION

The THRIVE score and the THRIVE-c calculation are validated ischemic stroke outcome prediction tools based on patient variables that are readily available at initial presentation. Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) have demonstrated the benefit of endovascular treatment (EVT) for many patients with large vessel occlusion (LVO), and pooled data from these trials allow for adaptation of the THRIVE-c calculation for use in shared clinical decision making regarding EVT.

METHODS

To extend THRIVE-c for use in the context of EVT, we extracted data from the Virtual International Stroke Trials Archive (VISTA) from 7 RCTs of EVT. Models were built in a randomly selected development cohort using logistic regression that included the predictors from THRIVE-c: age, NIH Stroke Scale (NIHSS) score, presence of hypertension, diabetes mellitus, and/or atrial fibrillation, as well as randomization to EVT and, where available, the Alberta Stroke Program Early CT Score (ASPECTS).

RESULTS

Good outcome was achieved in 366/787 (46.5%) of subjects randomized to EVT and in 236/795 (29.7%) of subjects randomized to control (P < 0.001), and the improvement in outcome with EVT was seen across age, NIHSS, and THRIVE-c good outcome prediction. Models to predict outcome using THRIVE elements (age, NIHSS, and comorbidities) together with EVT, with or without ASPECTS, had similar performance by ROC analysis in the development and validation cohorts (THRIVE-EVT ROC area under the curve (AUC) = 0.716 in development, 0.727 in validation, P = 0.30; THRIVE-EVT + ASPECTS ROC AUC = 0.718 in development, 0.735 in validation, P = 0.12).

CONCLUSION

THRIVE-EVT may be used alongside the original THRIVE-c calculation to improve outcome probability estimation for patients with acute ischemic stroke, including patients with or without LVO, and to model the potential improvement in outcomes with EVT for an individual patient based on variables that are available at initial presentation. Online calculators for THRIVE-c estimation are available at www.thrivescore.org and www.mdcalc.com/thrive-score-for-stroke-outcome.

Multivariable Prediction Model for Futile Recanalization Therapies in Patients With Acute Ischemic Stroke

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Very poor outcome despite IV thrombolysis (IVT) and mechanical thrombectomy (MT) occurs in approximately 1 of 4 patients with ischemic stroke and is associated with a high logistic and economic burden. We aimed to develop and validate a multivariable prognostic model to identify futile recanalization therapies (FRTs) in patients undergoing those therapies.

METHODS

Patients from a prospectively collected observational registry of a single academic stroke center treated with MT and/or IVT were included. The data set was split into a training (N = 1,808, 80%) and internal validation (N = 453, 20%) cohort. We used gradient boosted decision tree machine learning models after k-nearest neighbor imputation of 32 variables available at admission to predict FRT defined as modified Rankin scale 5-6 at 3 months. We report feature importance, ability for discrimination, calibration, and decision curve analysis.

RESULTS

A total of 2,261 patients with a median (interquartile range) age of 75 years (64-83 years), 46% female, median NIH Stroke Scale 9 (4-17), 34% IVT alone, 41% MT alone, and 25% bridging were included. Overall, 539 (24%) had FRT, more often in MT alone (34%) as compared with IVT alone (11%). Feature importance identified clinical variables (stroke severity, age, active cancer, prestroke disability), laboratory values (glucose, C-reactive protein, creatinine), imaging biomarkers (white matter hyperintensities), and onset-to-admission time as the most important predictors. The final model was discriminatory for predicting 3-month FRT (area under the curve 0.87, 95% CI 0.87-0.88) and had good calibration (Brier 0.12, 0.11-0.12). Overall performance was moderate (F1-score 0.63 ± 0.004), and decision curve analyses suggested higher mean net benefit at lower thresholds of treatment (up to 0.8).

CONCLUSIONS

This FRT prediction model can help inform shared decision making and identify the most relevant features in the emergency setting. Although it might be particularly useful in low resource healthcare settings, incorporation of further multifaceted variables is necessary to further increase the predictive performance.

Association between blood pressure variability and clinical outcomes after successful recanalization in patients with large vessel occlusion stroke after mechanical thrombectomy

Objective

Nearly half of patients who undergo mechanical thrombectomy (MT) do not experience a favorable outcome. The association between blood pressure fluctuation and clinical outcomes after successful MT is controversial. We evaluated the influence of blood pressure variability (BPV) on the clinical outcomes of stroke patients with large vessel occlusion (LVO) who underwent successful recanalization after MT.

Methods

Patients with anterior circulation LVO stroke who underwent successful emergency MT (modified Thrombolysis in Cerebral Infarction, mTICI ≥ 2b) at the Shanghai Tenth People's Hospital of Tongji University from 2017 to 2021 were enrolled. Multivariate logistic models were used to investigate the association between BPV (mean arterial pressure [MAP] assessed using the standard deviation [SD]) and clinical outcomes. The primary outcome was 90-day modified Rankin Scale scores (mRS), and the secondary outcomes were 30-day mortality and symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage (sICH).

Results

A total of 458 patients (56.8% men), with a mean age of 72 ± 1 years, were enrolled. Among them, 207 (45.2%) patients had unfavorable functional outcomes (mRS score 3–6) at 90 days, 61 (13.3%) patients died within 30 days, and 20 (4.4%) patients had sICH. In a fully adjusted model, BPV was associated with a higher risk of a 90-day mRS score of 3–6 (P = 0.04), 30-day mortality (P < 0.01), and sICH (P < 0.01). A significant interaction between MAP SD and rescue futile recanalization treatment was observed (P < 0.01).

Conclusions

Among patients with LVO stroke who underwent successful recanalization, higher BPV was associated with worse functional outcomes, especially in those who underwent rescue treatment.

Cerebral Collateral Circulation in the Era of Reperfusion Therapies for Acute Ischemic Stroke

Clinical outcomes of patients with acute ischemic stroke depend in part on the extent of their collateral circulation. A good collateral circulation has also been associated with greater benefit of intravenous thrombolysis and endovascular treatment. Treatment decisions for these reperfusion therapies are increasingly guided by a combination of clinical and imaging parameters, particularly in later time windows. Computed tomography and magnetic resonance imaging enable a rapid assessment of both the collateral extent and cerebral perfusion. Yet, the role of the collateral circulation in clinical decision-making is currently limited and may be underappreciated due to the use of rather coarse and rater-dependent grading methods. In this review, we discuss determinants of the collateral circulation in patients with acute ischemic stroke, report on commonly used and emerging neuroimaging techniques for assessing the collateral circulation, and discuss the therapeutic and prognostic implications of the collateral circulation in relation to reperfusion therapies for acute ischemic stroke.

Inter-rater reliability for assessing intracranial collaterals in patients with acute ischemic stroke: comparing 29 raters and an artificial intelligence-based software

Purpose

Outcome of endovascular treatment in acute ischemic stroke patients is depending on the collateral circulation maintaining blood flow to the ischemic territory. We evaluated the inter-rater reliability and accuracy of raters and an automated algorithm for assessing the collateral score (CS, range: 0–3) in acute ischemic stroke patients.

Methods

Baseline CTA scans with an intracranial anterior occlusion from the MR CLEAN study (n=500) were used. For each core lab CS, ten CTA scans with sufficient quality were randomly selected. After a training session in collateral scoring, all selected CTA scans were individually evaluated for a visual CS by three groups: 7 radiologists, 13 junior and 9 senior radiology residents. Two additional radiologists scored CS to be used as reference, with a third providing a CS to produce a 2 out of 3 consensus CS in case of disagreement. An automated algorithm was also used to compute CS. Inter-rater agreement was reported with intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC). Accuracy of visual and automated CS were calculated.

Results

39 CTA scans were assessed (1 corrupt CTA-scan excluded). All groups showed a moderate ICC (0.689-0.780) in comparison to the reference standard. Overall human accuracy was 65± 7% and increased to 88± 5% for dichotomized CS (0–1, 2–3). Automated CS accuracy was 62%, and 90% for dichotomized CS. No significant difference in accuracy was found between groups with different levels of expertise.

Conclusion

After training, inter-rater reliability in collateral scoring was not influenced by experience. Automated CS performs similar to residents and radiologists in determining a collateral score.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00234-022-02984-z.

Diagnostic performance of an algorithm for automated collateral scoring on computed tomography angiography

OBJECTIVES

Outcome of endovascular treatment in acute ischemic stroke patients depends on collateral circulation to provide blood supply to the ischemic territory. We evaluated the performance of a commercially available algorithm for assessing the collateral score (CS) in acute ischemic stroke patients.

METHODS

Retrospectively, baseline CTA scans (≤ 3-mm slice thickness) with an intracranial carotid artery (ICA), middle cerebral artery segment M1 or M2 occlusion, from the MR CLEAN Registry (n = 1627) were evaluated. All CTA scans were evaluated for visual CS (0-3) by eight expert radiologists (reference standard). A Web-based AI algorithm quantified the collateral circulation (0-100%) for correctly detected occlusion sides. Agreement between visual CS and categorized automated CS (0: 0%, 1: > 0- ≤ 50%, 2: > 50- < 100%, 3: 100%) was assessed. Area under the curve (AUC) values for classifying patients in having good (CS: 2-3) versus poor (CS: 0-1) collaterals and for predicting functional independence (90-day modified Rankin Scale 0-2) were computed. Influence of CTA acquisition timing after contrast material administration was reported.

RESULTS

In the analyzed scans (n = 1024), 59% agreement was found between visual CS and automated CS. An AUC of 0.87 (95% CI: 0.85-0.90) was found for discriminating good versus poor CS. Timing of CTA acquisition did not influence discriminatory performance. AUC for predicting functional independence was 0.66 (95% CI 0.62-0.69) for automated CS, similar to visual CS 0.64 (95% CI 0.61-0.68).

CONCLUSIONS

The automated CS performs similar to radiologists in determining a good versus poor collateral score and predicting functional independence in acute ischemic stroke patients with a large vessel occlusion.

KEY POINTS

• Software for automated quantification of intracerebral collateral circulation on computed tomography angiography performs similar to expert radiologists in determining a good versus poor collateral score. • Software for automated quantification of intracerebral collateral circulation on computed tomography angiography performs similar to expert radiologists in predicting functional independence in acute ischemic stroke patients with a large vessel occlusion. • The timing of computed tomography angiography acquisition after contrast material administration did not influence the performance of automated quantification of the collateral status.

Nijeholt G, van Es A, van der Lugt A, Majoie C, Burke J, Roozenbeek B, Lingsma H, Dippel D. Outcome Prediction Models for Endovascular Treatment of Ischemic Stroke: Systematic Review and External Validation

Supplemental Digital Content is available in the text.

Prediction models for outcome of patients with acute ischemic stroke who will undergo endovascular treatment have been developed to improve patient management. The aim of the current study is to provide an overview of preintervention models for functional outcome after endovascular treatment and to validate these models with data from daily clinical practice.