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Ghofrani-Jahromi M, Poudel GR, Razi A, Abeyasinghe PM, Paulsen JS, Tabrizi SJ, Saha S, Georgiou-Karistianis N. Prognostic enrichment for early-stage Huntington's disease: An explainable machine learning approach for clinical trial. Neuroimage Clin 2024; 43:103650. [PMID: 39142216 DOI: 10.1016/j.nicl.2024.103650] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/18/2024] [Revised: 07/11/2024] [Accepted: 07/31/2024] [Indexed: 08/16/2024]
Abstract
BACKGROUND In Huntington's disease clinical trials, recruitment and stratification approaches primarily rely on genetic load, cognitive and motor assessment scores. They focus less on in vivo brain imaging markers, which reflect neuropathology well before clinical diagnosis. Machine learning methods offer a degree of sophistication which could significantly improve prognosis and stratification by leveraging multimodal biomarkers from large datasets. Such models specifically tailored to HD gene expansion carriers could further enhance the efficacy of the stratification process. OBJECTIVES To improve stratification of Huntington's disease individuals for clinical trials. METHODS We used data from 451 gene positive individuals with Huntington's disease (both premanifest and diagnosed) from previously published cohorts (PREDICT, TRACK, TrackON, and IMAGE). We applied whole-brain parcellation to longitudinal brain scans and measured the rate of lateral ventricular enlargement, over 3 years, which was used as the target variable for our prognostic random forest regression models. The models were trained on various combinations of features at baseline, including genetic load, cognitive and motor assessment score biomarkers, as well as brain imaging-derived features. Furthermore, a simplified stratification model was developed to classify individuals into two homogenous groups (low risk and high risk) based on their anticipated rate of ventricular enlargement. RESULTS The predictive accuracy of the prognostic models substantially improved by integrating brain imaging features alongside genetic load, cognitive and motor biomarkers: a 24 % reduction in the cross-validated mean absolute error, yielding an error of 530 mm3/year. The stratification model had a cross-validated accuracy of 81 % in differentiating between moderate and fast progressors (precision = 83 %, recall = 80 %). CONCLUSIONS This study validated the effectiveness of machine learning in differentiating between low- and high-risk individuals based on the rate of ventricular enlargement. The models were exclusively trained using features from HD individuals, which offers a more disease-specific, simplified, and accurate approach for prognostic enrichment compared to relying on features extracted from healthy control groups, as done in previous studies. The proposed method has the potential to enhance clinical utility by: i) enabling more targeted recruitment of individuals for clinical trials, ii) improving post-hoc evaluation of individuals, and iii) ultimately leading to better outcomes for individuals through personalized treatment selection.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Govinda R Poudel
- Mary MacKillop Institute for Health Research, Australian Catholic University, Melbourne VIC3000, Australia
| | - Adeel Razi
- Turner Institute for Brain and Mental Health, Monash University, Clayton VIC3800, Australia
| | - Pubu M Abeyasinghe
- Turner Institute for Brain and Mental Health, Monash University, Clayton VIC3800, Australia
| | - Jane S Paulsen
- Department of Neurology, University of Wisconsin-Madison, 1685 Highland Avenue, Madison, WI, USA
| | - Sarah J Tabrizi
- UCL Huntington's Disease Centre, UCL Queen Square Institute of Neurology, UK Dementia Research Institute, Department of Neurodegenerative Diseases, University College London, London, UK
| | - Susmita Saha
- Turner Institute for Brain and Mental Health, Monash University, Clayton VIC3800, Australia
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Chintapalli SS, Wang R, Yang Z, Tassopoulou V, Yu F, Bashyam V, Erus G, Chaudhari P, Shou H, Davatzikos C. NeuroSynth: MRI-Derived Neuroanatomical Generative Models and Associated Dataset of 18,000 Samples. ARXIV 2024:arXiv:2407.12897v1. [PMID: 39070036 PMCID: PMC11275685] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 07/30/2024]
Abstract
Availability of large and diverse medical datasets is often challenged by privacy and data sharing restrictions. For successful application of machine learning techniques for disease diagnosis, prognosis, and precision medicine, large amounts of data are necessary for model building and optimization. To help overcome such limitations in the context of brain MRI, we present NeuroSynth: a collection of generative models of normative regional volumetric features derived from structural brain imaging. NeuroSynth models are trained on real brain imaging regional volumetric measures from the iSTAGING consortium, which encompasses over 40,000 MRI scans across 13 studies, incorporating covariates such as age, sex, and race. Leveraging NeuroSynth, we produce and offer 18,000 synthetic samples spanning the adult lifespan (ages 22-90 years), alongside the model's capability to generate unlimited data. Experimental results indicate that samples generated from NeuroSynth agree with the distributions obtained from real data. Most importantly, the generated normative data significantly enhance the accuracy of downstream machine learning models on tasks such as disease classification. Data and models are available at: https://huggingface.co/spaces/rongguangw/neuro-synth.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sai Spandana Chintapalli
- Center for AI and Data Science for Integrated Diagnostics (AI2D), Perelman School of Medicine, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA 19104, USA
| | - Rongguang Wang
- Center for AI and Data Science for Integrated Diagnostics (AI2D), Perelman School of Medicine, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA 19104, USA
| | - Zhijian Yang
- Center for AI and Data Science for Integrated Diagnostics (AI2D), Perelman School of Medicine, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA 19104, USA
| | - Vasiliki Tassopoulou
- Center for AI and Data Science for Integrated Diagnostics (AI2D), Perelman School of Medicine, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA 19104, USA
| | - Fanyang Yu
- Center for AI and Data Science for Integrated Diagnostics (AI2D), Perelman School of Medicine, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA 19104, USA
| | - Vishnu Bashyam
- Center for AI and Data Science for Integrated Diagnostics (AI2D), Perelman School of Medicine, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA 19104, USA
| | - Guray Erus
- Center for AI and Data Science for Integrated Diagnostics (AI2D), Perelman School of Medicine, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA 19104, USA
- Department of Radiology, Perelman School of Medicine, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA 19104, USA
| | - Pratik Chaudhari
- Department of Electrical and Systems Engineering, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA 19104, USA
| | - Haochang Shou
- Center for AI and Data Science for Integrated Diagnostics (AI2D), Perelman School of Medicine, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA 19104, USA
- Department of Biostatistics, Epidemiology and Informatics, Perelman School of Medicine, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA 19104, USA
| | - Christos Davatzikos
- Center for AI and Data Science for Integrated Diagnostics (AI2D), Perelman School of Medicine, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA 19104, USA
- Department of Radiology, Perelman School of Medicine, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA 19104, USA
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Estarellas M, Oxtoby NP, Schott JM, Alexander DC, Young AL. Multimodal subtypes identified in Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative participants by missing-data-enabled subtype and stage inference. Brain Commun 2024; 6:fcae219. [PMID: 39035417 PMCID: PMC11259979 DOI: 10.1093/braincomms/fcae219] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/02/2023] [Revised: 03/14/2024] [Accepted: 06/22/2024] [Indexed: 07/23/2024] Open
Abstract
Alzheimer's disease is a highly heterogeneous disease in which different biomarkers are dynamic over different windows of the decades-long pathophysiological processes, and potentially have distinct involvement in different subgroups. Subtype and Stage Inference is an unsupervised learning algorithm that disentangles the phenotypic heterogeneity and temporal progression of disease biomarkers, providing disease insight and quantitative estimates of individual subtype and stage. However, a key limitation of Subtype and Stage Inference is that it requires a complete set of biomarkers for each subject, reducing the number of datapoints available for model fitting and limiting applications of Subtype and Stage Inference to modalities that are widely collected, e.g. volumetric biomarkers derived from structural MRI. In this study, we adapted the Subtype and Stage Inference algorithm to handle missing data, enabling the application of Subtype and Stage Inference to multimodal data (magnetic resonance imaging, positron emission tomography, cerebrospinal fluid and cognitive tests) from 789 participants in the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative. Missing-data Subtype and Stage Inference identified five subtypes having distinct progression patterns, which we describe by the earliest unique abnormality as 'Typical AD with Early Tau', 'Typical AD with Late Tau', 'Cortical', 'Cognitive' and 'Subcortical'. These new multimodal subtypes were differentially associated with age, years of education, Apolipoprotein E (APOE4) status, white matter hyperintensity burden and the rate of conversion from mild cognitive impairment to Alzheimer's disease, with the 'Cognitive' subtype showing the fastest clinical progression, and the 'Subcortical' subtype the slowest. Overall, we demonstrate that missing-data Subtype and Stage Inference reveals a finer landscape of Alzheimer's disease subtypes, each of which are associated with different risk factors. Missing-data Subtype and Stage Inference has broad utility, enabling the prediction of progression in a much wider set of individuals, rather than being restricted to those with complete data.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mar Estarellas
- Centre for Medical Image Computing, Department of Computer Science, University College London, London, UK
- School of Biological and Behavioural Sciences, Queen Mary University of London, London, UK
| | - Neil P Oxtoby
- Centre for Medical Image Computing, Department of Computer Science, University College London, London, UK
| | - Jonathan M Schott
- Dementia Research Centre, UCL Queen Square Institute of Neurology, London, UK
| | - Daniel C Alexander
- Centre for Medical Image Computing, Department of Computer Science, University College London, London, UK
| | - Alexandra L Young
- Centre for Medical Image Computing, Department of Computer Science, University College London, London, UK
- Department of Neuroimaging, Institute of Psychiatry, Psychology and Neuroscience, King’s College London, London, UK
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Planche V, Mansencal B, Manjon JV, Meissner WG, Tourdias T, Coupé P. Staging of progressive supranuclear palsy-Richardson syndrome using MRI brain charts for the human lifespan. Brain Commun 2024; 6:fcae055. [PMID: 38444913 PMCID: PMC10914441 DOI: 10.1093/braincomms/fcae055] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/13/2023] [Revised: 12/22/2023] [Accepted: 02/19/2024] [Indexed: 03/07/2024] Open
Abstract
Brain charts for the human lifespan have been recently proposed to build dynamic models of brain anatomy in normal aging and various neurological conditions. They offer new possibilities to quantify neuroanatomical changes from preclinical stages to death, where longitudinal MRI data are not available. In this study, we used brain charts to model the progression of brain atrophy in progressive supranuclear palsy-Richardson syndrome. We combined multiple datasets (n = 8170 quality controlled MRI of healthy subjects from 22 cohorts covering the entire lifespan, and n = 62 MRI of progressive supranuclear palsy-Richardson syndrome patients from the Four Repeat Tauopathy Neuroimaging Initiative (4RTNI)) to extrapolate lifetime volumetric models of healthy and progressive supranuclear palsy-Richardson syndrome brain structures. We then mapped in time and space the sequential divergence between healthy and progressive supranuclear palsy-Richardson syndrome charts. We found six major consecutive stages of atrophy progression: (i) ventral diencephalon (including subthalamic nuclei, substantia nigra, and red nuclei), (ii) pallidum, (iii) brainstem, striatum and amygdala, (iv) thalamus, (v) frontal lobe, and (vi) occipital lobe. The three structures with the most severe atrophy over time were the thalamus, followed by the pallidum and the brainstem. These results match the neuropathological staging of tauopathy progression in progressive supranuclear palsy-Richardson syndrome, where the pathology is supposed to start in the pallido-nigro-luysian system and spreads rostrally via the striatum and the amygdala to the cerebral cortex, and caudally to the brainstem. This study supports the use of brain charts for the human lifespan to study the progression of neurodegenerative diseases, especially in the absence of specific biomarkers as in PSP.
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Affiliation(s)
- Vincent Planche
- Institut des Maladies Neurodégénératives, Univ. Bordeaux, CNRS, UMR 5293, F-33000 Bordeaux, France
- Centre Mémoire Ressources Recherches, Service de Neurologie des Maladies Neurodégénératives, Pôle de Neurosciences Cliniques, CHU de Bordeaux, F-33000 Bordeaux, France
| | - Boris Mansencal
- CNRS, Univ. Bordeaux, Bordeaux INP, Laboratoire Bordelais de Recherche en Informatique (LABRI), UMR5800, F-33400 Talence, France
| | - Jose V Manjon
- Instituto de Aplicaciones de las Tecnologías de la Información y de las Comunicaciones Avanzadas (ITACA), Universitat Politècnica de València, Camino de Vera s/n, 46022, Valencia, Spain
| | - Wassilios G Meissner
- Institut des Maladies Neurodégénératives, Univ. Bordeaux, CNRS, UMR 5293, F-33000 Bordeaux, France
- Service de Neurologie des Maladies Neurodégénératives, Réseau NS-Park/FCRIN, CHU Bordeaux, F-33000, Bordeaux, France
- Department of Medicine, Christchurch, and New Zealand Brain Research Institute, Christchurch, 8011, New Zealand
| | - Thomas Tourdias
- Inserm U1215—Neurocentre Magendie, Bordeaux F-33000, France
- Service de Neuroimagerie diagnostique et thérapeutique, CHU de Bordeaux, F-33000 Bordeaux, France
| | - Pierrick Coupé
- CNRS, Univ. Bordeaux, Bordeaux INP, Laboratoire Bordelais de Recherche en Informatique (LABRI), UMR5800, F-33400 Talence, France
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Young AL, Oxtoby NP, Garbarino S, Fox NC, Barkhof F, Schott JM, Alexander DC. Data-driven modelling of neurodegenerative disease progression: thinking outside the black box. Nat Rev Neurosci 2024; 25:111-130. [PMID: 38191721 DOI: 10.1038/s41583-023-00779-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 11/30/2023] [Indexed: 01/10/2024]
Abstract
Data-driven disease progression models are an emerging set of computational tools that reconstruct disease timelines for long-term chronic diseases, providing unique insights into disease processes and their underlying mechanisms. Such methods combine a priori human knowledge and assumptions with large-scale data processing and parameter estimation to infer long-term disease trajectories from short-term data. In contrast to 'black box' machine learning tools, data-driven disease progression models typically require fewer data and are inherently interpretable, thereby aiding disease understanding in addition to enabling classification, prediction and stratification. In this Review, we place the current landscape of data-driven disease progression models in a general framework and discuss their enhanced utility for constructing a disease timeline compared with wider machine learning tools that construct static disease profiles. We review the insights they have enabled across multiple neurodegenerative diseases, notably Alzheimer disease, for applications such as determining temporal trajectories of disease biomarkers, testing hypotheses about disease mechanisms and uncovering disease subtypes. We outline key areas for technological development and translation to a broader range of neuroscience and non-neuroscience applications. Finally, we discuss potential pathways and barriers to integrating disease progression models into clinical practice and trial settings.
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Affiliation(s)
- Alexandra L Young
- UCL Centre for Medical Image Computing, Department of Computer Science, University College London, London, UK.
- Department of Neuroimaging, Institute of Psychiatry, Psychology and Neuroscience, King's College London, London, UK.
| | - Neil P Oxtoby
- UCL Centre for Medical Image Computing, Department of Computer Science, University College London, London, UK.
| | - Sara Garbarino
- Life Science Computational Laboratory, IRCCS Ospedale Policlinico San Martino, Genova, Italy
| | - Nick C Fox
- Dementia Research Centre, UCL Queen Square Institute of Neurology, University College London, London, UK
| | - Frederik Barkhof
- UCL Centre for Medical Image Computing, Department of Computer Science, University College London, London, UK
- Department of Radiology & Nuclear Medicine, Amsterdam University Medical Center, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Jonathan M Schott
- Dementia Research Centre, UCL Queen Square Institute of Neurology, University College London, London, UK
| | - Daniel C Alexander
- UCL Centre for Medical Image Computing, Department of Computer Science, University College London, London, UK
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