Longitudinal inference of multiscale markers in psychosis: from hippocampal centrality to functional outcome

Multiscale neuroscience conceptualizes mental illness as arising from aberrant interactions across and within multiple biopsychosocial scales. We leverage this framework to propose a multiscale disease progression model of psychosis, in which hippocampal-cortical dysconnectivity precedes impairments in episodic memory and social cognition, which lead to more severe negative symptoms and lower functional outcome. As psychosis represents a heterogeneous collection of biological and behavioral alterations that evolve over time, we further predict this disease progression for a subtype of the patient sample, with other patients showing normal-range performance on all variables. We sampled data from two cross-sectional datasets of first- and multi-episode psychosis, resulting in a sample of 163 patients and 119 non-clinical controls. To address our proposed disease progression model and evaluate potential heterogeneity, we applied a machine-learning algorithm, SuStaIn, to the patient data. SuStaIn uniquely integrates clustering and disease progression modeling and identified three patient subtypes. Subtype 0 showed normal-range performance on all variables. In comparison, Subtype 1 showed lower episodic memory, social cognition, functional outcome, and higher negative symptoms, while Subtype 2 showed lower hippocampal-cortical connectivity and episodic memory. Subtype 1 deteriorated from episodic memory to social cognition, negative symptoms, functional outcome to bilateral hippocampal-cortical dysconnectivity, while Subtype 2 deteriorated from bilateral hippocampal-cortical dysconnectivity to episodic memory and social cognition, functional outcome to negative symptoms. This first application of SuStaIn in a multiscale psychiatric model provides distinct disease trajectories of hippocampal-cortical connectivity, which might underlie the heterogeneous behavioral manifestations of psychosis.

Mortality surrogates in combined pulmonary fibrosis and emphysema

BACKGROUND

Idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) with coexistent emphysema, termed combined pulmonary fibrosis and emphysema (CPFE) may associate with reduced forced vital capacity (FVC) declines compared to non-CPFE IPF patients. We examined associations between mortality and functional measures of disease progression in two IPF cohorts.

METHODS

Visual emphysema presence (>0% emphysema) scored on computed tomography identified CPFE patients (CPFE/non-CPFE: derivation cohort n=317/n=183, replication cohort n=358/n=152), who were subgrouped using 10% or 15% visual emphysema thresholds, and an unsupervised machine-learning model considering emphysema and interstitial lung disease extents. Baseline characteristics, 1-year relative FVC and diffusing capacity of the lung for carbon monoxide (D LCO) decline (linear mixed-effects models), and their associations with mortality (multivariable Cox regression models) were compared across non-CPFE and CPFE subgroups.

RESULTS

In both IPF cohorts, CPFE patients with ≥10% emphysema had a greater smoking history and lower baseline D LCO compared to CPFE patients with <10% emphysema. Using multivariable Cox regression analyses in patients with ≥10% emphysema, 1-year D LCO decline showed stronger mortality associations than 1-year FVC decline. Results were maintained in patients suitable for therapeutic IPF trials and in subjects subgrouped by ≥15% emphysema and using unsupervised machine learning. Importantly, the unsupervised machine-learning approach identified CPFE patients in whom FVC decline did not associate strongly with mortality. In non-CPFE IPF patients, 1-year FVC declines ≥5% and ≥10% showed strong mortality associations.

CONCLUSION

When assessing disease progression in IPF, D LCO decline should be considered in patients with ≥10% emphysema and a ≥5% 1-year relative FVC decline threshold considered in non-CPFE IPF patients.

Distinct spatiotemporal atrophy patterns in corticobasal syndrome are associated with different underlying pathologies

Objective

To identify imaging subtypes of the cortico-basal syndrome (CBS) based solely on a data-driven assessment of MRI atrophy patterns, and investigate whether these subtypes provide information on the underlying pathology.

Methods

We applied Subtype and Stage Inference (SuStaIn), a machine learning algorithm that identifies groups of individuals with distinct biomarker progression patterns, to a large cohort of 135 CBS cases (52 had a pathological or biomarker defined diagnosis) and 252 controls. The model was fit using volumetric features extracted from baseline T1-weighted MRI scans and validated using follow-up MRI. We compared the clinical phenotypes of each subtype and investigated whether there were differences in associated pathology between the subtypes.

Results

SuStaIn identified two subtypes with distinct sequences of atrophy progression; four-repeat-tauopathy confirmed cases were most commonly assigned to the Subcortical subtype (83% of CBS-PSP and 75% of CBS-CBD), while CBS-AD was most commonly assigned to the Fronto-parieto-occipital subtype (81% of CBS-AD). Subtype assignment was stable at follow-up (98% of cases), and individuals consistently progressed to higher stages (100% stayed at the same stage or progressed), supporting the model's ability to stage progression.

Interpretation

By jointly modelling disease stage and subtype, we provide data-driven evidence for at least two distinct and longitudinally stable spatiotemporal subtypes of atrophy in CBS that are associated with different underlying pathologies. In the absence of sensitive and specific biomarkers, accurately subtyping and staging individuals with CBS at baseline has important implications for screening on entry into clinical trials, as well as for tracking disease progression.

Data-driven modelling of neurodegenerative disease progression: thinking outside the black box

Data-driven disease progression models are an emerging set of computational tools that reconstruct disease timelines for long-term chronic diseases, providing unique insights into disease processes and their underlying mechanisms. Such methods combine a priori human knowledge and assumptions with large-scale data processing and parameter estimation to infer long-term disease trajectories from short-term data. In contrast to 'black box' machine learning tools, data-driven disease progression models typically require fewer data and are inherently interpretable, thereby aiding disease understanding in addition to enabling classification, prediction and stratification. In this Review, we place the current landscape of data-driven disease progression models in a general framework and discuss their enhanced utility for constructing a disease timeline compared with wider machine learning tools that construct static disease profiles. We review the insights they have enabled across multiple neurodegenerative diseases, notably Alzheimer disease, for applications such as determining temporal trajectories of disease biomarkers, testing hypotheses about disease mechanisms and uncovering disease subtypes. We outline key areas for technological development and translation to a broader range of neuroscience and non-neuroscience applications. Finally, we discuss potential pathways and barriers to integrating disease progression models into clinical practice and trial settings.

Disease progression modelling reveals heterogeneity in trajectories of Lewy-type α-synuclein pathology

Lewy body (LB) disorders, characterized by the aggregation of misfolded α-synuclein proteins, exhibit notable clinical heterogeneity. This may be due to variations in accumulation patterns of LB neuropathology. By applying data-driven disease progression modelling to regional neuropathological LB density scores from 814 brain donors, we describe three inferred trajectories of LB pathology that were characterized by differing clinicopathological presentation and longitudinal antemortem clinical progression. Most donors (81.9%) showed earliest pathology in the olfactory bulb, followed by accumulation in either limbic (60.8%) or brainstem (21.1%) regions. The remaining donors (18.1%) exhibited the first abnormalities in brainstem regions. Early limbic pathology was associated with Alzheimer's disease-associated characteristics. Meanwhile, brainstem-first pathology was associated with progressive motor impairment and substantial LB pathology outside of the brain. Our data provides evidence for heterogeneity in the temporal spread of LB pathology, possibly explaining some of the clinical disparities observed in LBDs.

A data-driven study of Alzheimer's disease related amyloid and tau pathology progression

Amyloid-β is thought to facilitate the spread of tau throughout the neocortex in Alzheimer's disease, though how this occurs is not well understood. This is because of the spatial discordance between amyloid-β, which accumulates in the neocortex, and tau, which accumulates in the medial temporal lobe during ageing. There is evidence that in some cases amyloid-β-independent tau spreads beyond the medial temporal lobe where it may interact with neocortical amyloid-β. This suggests that there may be multiple distinct spatiotemporal subtypes of Alzheimer's-related protein aggregation, with potentially different demographic and genetic risk profiles. We investigated this hypothesis, applying data-driven disease progression subtyping models to post-mortem neuropathology and in vivo PET-based measures from two large observational studies: the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) and the Religious Orders Study and Rush Memory and Aging Project (ROSMAP). We consistently identified 'amyloid-first' and 'tau-first' subtypes using cross-sectional information from both studies. In the amyloid-first subtype, extensive neocortical amyloid-β precedes the spread of tau beyond the medial temporal lobe, while in the tau-first subtype, mild tau accumulates in medial temporal and neocortical areas prior to interacting with amyloid-β. As expected, we found a higher prevalence of the amyloid-first subtype among apolipoprotein E (APOE) ε4 allele carriers while the tau-first subtype was more common among APOE ε4 non-carriers. Within tau-first APOE ε4 carriers, we found an increased rate of amyloid-β accumulation (via longitudinal amyloid PET), suggesting that this rare group may belong within the Alzheimer's disease continuum. We also found that tau-first APOE ε4 carriers had several fewer years of education than other groups, suggesting a role for modifiable risk factors in facilitating amyloid-β-independent tau. Tau-first APOE ε4 non-carriers, in contrast, recapitulated many of the features of primary age-related tauopathy. The rate of longitudinal amyloid-β and tau accumulation (both measured via PET) within this group did not differ from normal ageing, supporting the distinction of primary age-related tauopathy from Alzheimer's disease. We also found reduced longitudinal subtype consistency within tau-first APOE ε4 non-carriers, suggesting additional heterogeneity within this group. Our findings support the idea that amyloid-β and tau may begin as independent processes in spatially disconnected regions, with widespread neocortical tau resulting from the local interaction of amyloid-β and tau. The site of this interaction may be subtype-dependent: medial temporal lobe in amyloid-first, neocortex in tau-first. These insights into the dynamics of amyloid-β and tau may inform research and clinical trials that target these pathologies.

Identification of different MRI atrophy progression trajectories in epilepsy by subtype and stage inference

Artificial intelligence (AI)-based tools are widely employed, but their use for diagnosis and prognosis of neurological disorders is still evolving. Here we analyse a cross-sectional multicentre structural MRI dataset of 696 people with epilepsy and 118 control subjects. We use an innovative machine-learning algorithm, Subtype and Stage Inference, to develop a novel data-driven disease taxonomy, whereby epilepsy subtypes correspond to distinct patterns of spatiotemporal progression of brain atrophy.In a discovery cohort of 814 individuals, we identify two subtypes common to focal and idiopathic generalized epilepsies, characterized by progression of grey matter atrophy driven by the cortex or the basal ganglia. A third subtype, only detected in focal epilepsies, was characterized by hippocampal atrophy. We corroborate external validity via an independent cohort of 254 people and confirm that the basal ganglia subtype is associated with the most severe epilepsy.Our findings suggest fundamental processes underlying the progression of epilepsy-related brain atrophy. We deliver a novel MRI- and AI-guided epilepsy taxonomy, which could be used for individualized prognostics and targeted therapeutics.

Comparison of United Kingdom and United States screening criteria for detecting retinopathy of prematurity in Hong Kong

INTRODUCTION

We examined whether the United Kingdom (UK) or the United States (US) screening criteria are more appropriate for retinopathy of prematurity (ROP) screening in Hong Kong, in terms of sensitivity for detecting type 1 ROP and the number of infants requiring screening.

METHODS

In this retrospective cohort study, we reviewed the medical records of all infants who underwent ROP screening from 2009 to 2018 at a tertiary hospital in Hong Kong. During this period, all infants born at gestational age (GA) ≤31 weeks and 6 days or birth weight (BW) <1501 g (ie, the UK screening criteria) underwent ROP screening. We determined the number of infants requiring screening and the number of type 1 ROP cases that would have been missed if the US screening criteria (GA ≤30 weeks & 0 days or BW ≤1500 g) had been used.

RESULTS

Overall, 796 infants were screened using the UK screening criteria. If the US screening criteria had been used, the number of infants requiring screening would have decreased by 21.1%; all type 1 ROP cases would have been detected (38/38, 100% sensitivity). Of the 168 infants who would not have been screened using the US screening criteria, only four of them (2.4%) had developed ROP (all maximum stage 1 only).

CONCLUSION

In our population, the use of the US screening criteria could reduce the number of infants screened without compromising sensitivity for the detection of type 1 ROP requiring treatment. We suggest narrowing the GA criterion for consistency with the US screening criteria during ROP screening in Hong Kong.

Data-driven neuropathological staging and subtyping of TDP-43 proteinopathies

TAR DNA-binding protein-43 (TDP-43) accumulation is the primary pathology underlying several neurodegenerative diseases. Charting the progression and heterogeneity of TDP-43 accumulation is necessary to better characterize TDP-43 proteinopathies, but current TDP-43 staging systems are heuristic and assume each syndrome is homogeneous. Here, we use data-driven disease progression modelling to derive a fine-grained empirical staging system for the classification and differentiation of frontotemporal lobar degeneration due to TDP-43 (FTLD-TDP, n = 126), amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS, n = 141) and limbic-predominant age-related TDP-43 encephalopathy neuropathologic change (LATE-NC) with and without Alzheimer's disease (n = 304). The data-driven staging of ALS and FTLD-TDP complement and extend previously described human-defined staging schema for ALS and behavioural variant frontotemporal dementia. In LATE-NC individuals, progression along data-driven stages was positively associated with age, but negatively associated with age in individuals with FTLD-TDP. Using only regional TDP-43 severity, our data driven model distinguished individuals diagnosed with ALS, FTLD-TDP or LATE-NC with a cross-validated accuracy of 85.9%, with misclassifications associated with mixed pathological diagnosis, age and genetic mutations. Adding age and SuStaIn stage to this model increased accuracy to 92.3%. Our model differentiates LATE-NC from FTLD-TDP, though some overlap was observed between late-stage LATE-NC and early-stage FTLD-TDP. We further tested for the presence of subtypes with distinct regional TDP-43 progression patterns within each diagnostic group, identifying two distinct cortical-predominant and brainstem-predominant subtypes within FTLD-TDP and a further two subcortical-predominant and corticolimbic-predominant subtypes within ALS. The FTLD-TDP subtypes exhibited differing proportions of TDP-43 type, while there was a trend for age differing between ALS subtypes. Interestingly, a negative relationship between age and SuStaIn stage was seen in the brainstem/subcortical-predominant subtype of each proteinopathy. No subtypes were observed for the LATE-NC group, despite aggregating individuals with and without Alzheimer's disease and a larger sample size for this group. Overall, we provide an empirical pathological TDP-43 staging system for ALS, FTLD-TDP and LATE-NC, which yielded accurate classification. We further demonstrate that there is substantial heterogeneity amongst ALS and FTLD-TDP progression patterns that warrants further investigation in larger cross-cohort studies.

Uncovering spatiotemporal patterns of atrophy in progressive supranuclear palsy using unsupervised machine learning

To better understand the pathological and phenotypic heterogeneity of progressive supranuclear palsy and the links between the two, we applied a novel unsupervised machine learning algorithm (Subtype and Stage Inference) to the largest MRI data set to date of people with clinically diagnosed progressive supranuclear palsy (including progressive supranuclear palsy-Richardson and variant progressive supranuclear palsy syndromes). Our cohort is comprised of 426 progressive supranuclear palsy cases, of which 367 had at least one follow-up scan, and 290 controls. Of the progressive supranuclear palsy cases, 357 were clinically diagnosed with progressive supranuclear palsy-Richardson, 52 with a progressive supranuclear palsy-cortical variant (progressive supranuclear palsy-frontal, progressive supranuclear palsy-speech/language, or progressive supranuclear palsy-corticobasal), and 17 with a progressive supranuclear palsy-subcortical variant (progressive supranuclear palsy-parkinsonism or progressive supranuclear palsy-progressive gait freezing). Subtype and Stage Inference was applied to volumetric MRI features extracted from baseline structural (T1-weighted) MRI scans and then used to subtype and stage follow-up scans. The subtypes and stages at follow-up were used to validate the longitudinal consistency of subtype and stage assignments. We further compared the clinical phenotypes of each subtype to gain insight into the relationship between progressive supranuclear palsy pathology, atrophy patterns, and clinical presentation. The data supported two subtypes, each with a distinct progression of atrophy: a 'subcortical' subtype, in which early atrophy was most prominent in the brainstem, ventral diencephalon, superior cerebellar peduncles, and the dentate nucleus, and a 'cortical' subtype, in which there was early atrophy in the frontal lobes and the insula alongside brainstem atrophy. There was a strong association between clinical diagnosis and the Subtype and Stage Inference subtype with 82% of progressive supranuclear palsy-subcortical cases and 81% of progressive supranuclear palsy-Richardson cases assigned to the subcortical subtype and 82% of progressive supranuclear palsy-cortical cases assigned to the cortical subtype. The increasing stage was associated with worsening clinical scores, whilst the 'subcortical' subtype was associated with worse clinical severity scores compared to the 'cortical subtype' (progressive supranuclear palsy rating scale and Unified Parkinson's Disease Rating Scale). Validation experiments showed that subtype assignment was longitudinally stable (95% of scans were assigned to the same subtype at follow-up) and individual staging was longitudinally consistent with 90% remaining at the same stage or progressing to a later stage at follow-up. In summary, we applied Subtype and Stage Inference to structural MRI data and empirically identified two distinct subtypes of spatiotemporal atrophy in progressive supranuclear palsy. These image-based subtypes were differentially enriched for progressive supranuclear palsy clinical syndromes and showed different clinical characteristics. Being able to accurately subtype and stage progressive supranuclear palsy patients at baseline has important implications for screening patients on entry to clinical trials, as well as tracking disease progression.

Data-driven neuropathological staging and subtyping of TDP-43 proteinopathies

TAR DNA-binding protein-43 (TDP-43) accumulation is the primary pathology underlying several neurodegenerative diseases. Charting the progression and heterogeneity of TDP-43 accumulation is necessary to better characterise TDP-43 proteinopathies, but current TDP-43 staging systems are heuristic and assume each syndrome is homogeneous. Here, we use data-driven disease progression modelling to derive a fine-grained empirical staging system for the classification and differentiation of frontotemporal lobar degeneration due to TDP-43 (FTLD-TDP, n=126), amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS, n=141) and limbic-predominant age-related TDP-43 encephalopathy neuropathologic change (LATE-NC) with and without Alzheimer’s disease (n=304). The data-driven staging of ALS and FTLD-TDP complement and extend previously described human-defined staging schema for ALS and behavioural variant frontotemporal dementia. In LATE-NC individuals, progression along data-driven stages was positively associated with age, but negatively associated with age in individuals with FTLD-TDP. Using only regional TDP-43 severity, our data driven model distinguished individuals diagnosed with ALS, FTLD-TDP or LATE-NC with a cross-validated accuracy of 85.9%, with misclassifications associated with mixed pathological diagnosis, age and genetic mutations. Adding age and SuStaIn stage to this model increased accuracy to 92.3%. Our model differentiates LATE-NC from FTLD-TDP, though some overlap was observed between late-stage LATE-NC and early-stage FTLD-TDP. We further tested for the presence of subtypes with distinct regional TDP-43 progression patterns within each diagnostic group, identifying two distinct cortical-predominant and brainstem-predominant subtypes within FTLD-TDP and a further two subcortical-predominant and corticolimbic-predominant subtypes within ALS. The FTLD-TDP subtypes exhibited differing proportions of TDP-43 type, while there was a trend for age differing between ALS subtypes. Interestingly, a negative relationship between age and SuStaIn stage was seen in the brainstem/subcortical-predominant subtype of each proteinopathy. No subtypes were observed for the LATE-NC group, despite aggregating AD+ and AD-individuals and a larger sample size for this group. Overall, we provide an empirical pathological TDP-43 staging system for ALS, FTLD-TDP and LATE-NC, which yielded accurate classification. We further demonstrate that there is substantial heterogeneity amongst ALS and FTLD-TDP progression patterns that warrants further investigation in larger cross-cohort studies.

pySuStaIn: a Python implementation of the Subtype and Stage Inference algorithm

Progressive disorders are highly heterogeneous. Symptom-based clinical classification of these disorders may not reflect the underlying pathobiology. Data-driven subtyping and staging of patients has the potential to disentangle the complex spatiotemporal patterns of disease progression. Tools that enable this are in high demand from clinical and treatment-development communities. Here we describe the pySuStaIn software package, a Python-based implementation of the Subtype and Stage Inference (SuStaIn) algorithm. SuStaIn unravels the complexity of heterogeneous diseases by inferring multiple disease progression patterns (subtypes) and individual severity (stages) from cross-sectional data. The primary aims of pySuStaIn are to enable widespread application and translation of SuStaIn via an accessible Python package that supports simple extension and generalization to novel modelling situations within a single, consistent architecture.

Presumed small vessel disease, imaging and cognition markers in the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative

MRI-derived features of presumed cerebral small vessel disease are frequently found in Alzheimer's disease. Influences of such markers on disease-progression measures are poorly understood. We measured markers of presumed small vessel disease (white matter hyperintensity volumes; cerebral microbleeds) on baseline images of newly enrolled individuals in the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative cohort (GO and 2) and used linear mixed models to relate these to subsequent atrophy and neuropsychological score change. We also assessed heterogeneity in white matter hyperintensity positioning within biomarker abnormality sequences, driven by the data, using the Subtype and Stage Inference algorithm. This study recruited both sexes and included: controls: [n = 159, mean(SD) age = 74(6) years]; early and late mild cognitive impairment [ns = 265 and 139, respectively, mean(SD) ages =71(7) and 72(8) years, respectively]; Alzheimer's disease [n = 103, mean(SD) age = 75(8)] and significant memory concern [n = 72, mean(SD) age = 72(6) years]. Baseline demographic and vascular risk-factor data, and longitudinal cognitive scores (Mini-Mental State Examination; logical memory; and Trails A and B) were collected. Whole-brain and hippocampal volume change metrics were calculated. White matter hyperintensity volumes were associated with greater whole-brain and hippocampal volume changes independently of cerebral microbleeds (a doubling of baseline white matter hyperintensity was associated with an increase in atrophy rate of 0.3 ml/year for brain and 0.013 ml/year for hippocampus). Cerebral microbleeds were found in 15% of individuals and the presence of a microbleed, as opposed to none, was associated with increases in atrophy rate of 1.4 ml/year for whole brain and 0.021 ml/year for hippocampus. White matter hyperintensities were predictive of greater decline in all neuropsychological scores, while cerebral microbleeds were predictive of decline in logical memory (immediate recall) and Mini-Mental State Examination scores. We identified distinct groups with specific sequences of biomarker abnormality using continuous baseline measures and brain volume change. Four clusters were found; Group 1 showed early Alzheimer's pathology; Group 2 showed early neurodegeneration; Group 3 had early mixed Alzheimer's and cerebrovascular pathology; Group 4 had early neuropsychological score abnormalities. White matter hyperintensity volumes becoming abnormal was a late event for Groups 1 and 4 and an early event for 2 and 3. In summary, white matter hyperintensities and microbleeds were independently associated with progressive neurodegeneration (brain atrophy rates) and cognitive decline (change in neuropsychological scores). Mechanisms involving white matter hyperintensities and progression and microbleeds and progression may be partially separate. Distinct sequences of biomarker progression were found. White matter hyperintensity development was an early event in two sequences.

Characterizing the Clinical Features and Atrophy Patterns of MAPT-Related Frontotemporal Dementia With Disease Progression Modeling

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

Mutations in the MAPT gene cause frontotemporal dementia (FTD). Most previous studies investigating the neuroanatomical signature of MAPT mutations have grouped all different mutations together and shown an association with focal atrophy of the temporal lobe. The variability in atrophy patterns between each particular MAPT mutation is less well-characterized. We aimed to investigate whether there were distinct groups of MAPT mutation carriers based on their neuroanatomical signature.

METHODS

We applied Subtype and Stage Inference (SuStaIn), an unsupervised machine learning technique that identifies groups of individuals with distinct progression patterns, to characterize patterns of regional atrophy in MAPT-associated FTD within the Genetic FTD Initiative (GENFI) cohort study.

RESULTS

Eighty-two MAPT mutation carriers were analyzed, the majority of whom had P301L, IVS10+16, or R406W mutations, along with 48 healthy noncarriers. SuStaIn identified 2 groups of MAPT mutation carriers with distinct atrophy patterns: a temporal subtype, in which atrophy was most prominent in the hippocampus, amygdala, temporal cortex, and insula; and a frontotemporal subtype, in which atrophy was more localized to the lateral temporal lobe and anterior insula, as well as the orbitofrontal and ventromedial prefrontal cortex and anterior cingulate. There was one-to-one mapping between IVS10+16 and R406W mutations and the temporal subtype and near one-to-one mapping between P301L mutations and the frontotemporal subtype. There were differences in clinical symptoms and neuropsychological test scores between subtypes: the temporal subtype was associated with amnestic symptoms, whereas the frontotemporal subtype was associated with executive dysfunction.

CONCLUSION

Our results demonstrate that different MAPT mutations give rise to distinct atrophy patterns and clinical phenotype, providing insights into the underlying disease biology and potential utility for patient stratification in therapeutic trials.

Ordinal SuStaIn: Subtype and Stage Inference for Clinical Scores, Visual Ratings, and Other Ordinal Data

Subtype and Stage Inference (SuStaIn) is an unsupervised learning algorithm that uniquely enables the identification of subgroups of individuals with distinct pseudo-temporal disease progression patterns from cross-sectional datasets. SuStaIn has been used to identify data-driven subgroups and perform patient stratification in neurodegenerative diseases and in lung diseases from continuous biomarker measurements predominantly obtained from imaging. However, the SuStaIn algorithm is not currently applicable to discrete ordinal data, such as visual ratings of images, neuropathological ratings, and clinical and neuropsychological test scores, restricting the applicability of SuStaIn to a narrower range of settings. Here we propose 'Ordinal SuStaIn', an ordinal version of the SuStaIn algorithm that uses a scored events model of disease progression to enable the application of SuStaIn to ordinal data. We demonstrate the validity of Ordinal SuStaIn by benchmarking the performance of the algorithm on simulated data. We further demonstrate that Ordinal SuStaIn out-performs the existing continuous version of SuStaIn (Z-score SuStaIn) on discrete scored data, providing much more accurate subtype progression patterns, better subtyping and staging of individuals, and accurate uncertainty estimates. We then apply Ordinal SuStaIn to six different sub-scales of the Clinical Dementia Rating scale (CDR) using data from the Alzheimer's disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) study to identify individuals with distinct patterns of functional decline. Using data from 819 ADNI1 participants we identified three distinct CDR subtype progression patterns, which were independently verified using data from 790 ADNI2 participants. Our results provide insight into patterns of decline in daily activities in Alzheimer's disease and a mechanism for stratifying individuals into groups with difficulties in different domains. Ordinal SuStaIn is broadly applicable across different types of ratings data, including visual ratings from imaging, neuropathological ratings and clinical or behavioural ratings data.

O45 Gender representation in the authorship of surgical journals

Introduction

Despite the increase in female doctors graduating from medical schools internationally, gender disparity in surgery remains. This disparity is also evident in academic surgery. This study aims to quantify the extent of gender disparity in the authorship of articles in major surgical journals.

Method

The Top 10 Surgical Journals were identified using SCImago Journal Rank indicator. Authorship details for papers published in 2019 were collected. Authors were assigned as female, male or unknown using Gender API software (Gender API, Germany). For each journal, the percentage of first author, last author, corresponding author and all authors split by gender was interrogated. Gender differences by publication type were also identified.

Result

9 of the 10 journals had full names publicly available. Overall, 2414 manuscripts were interrogated which included 16,277 number of authors. Respectively, females and males accounted for 29.8% [22.9–34.9%] (N = 655) and 62.4% [56.3–70.2%] (N = 1419) of first authors, 20.6% [11.8–27.1%] (N = 453) and 74.2% [65.6–84.1%] (N = 1706) of last authors, 23.9% [14.9–29.6%] (N = 510) and 69.9% [60.5–79.3%] (N = 2341) of corresponding authors and in total 27% [19.4–31.6%] (N = 4298) and 65.5% [58.6–73.4%] (N = 9982) of all authors. The wide range in these results could be a result of various factors.

Conclusion

This study has identified a gender imbalance in authorship positions, with the greatest difference observed in the most senior author position. Whether this is reflective of the current disparity observed in senior academic surgery positions or due to gender discrimination is unclear.

Take-home Message

This study identified a gender imbalance in authorship positions of major surgical journals, which has implications for women who choose to pursue a career in academic surgery.

Inter-Cohort Validation of SuStaIn Model for Alzheimer's Disease

Alzheimer’s disease (AD) is a neurodegenerative disorder which spans several years from preclinical manifestations to dementia. In recent years, interest in the application of machine learning (ML) algorithms to personalized medicine has grown considerably, and a major challenge that such models face is the transferability from the research settings to clinical practice. The objective of this work was to demonstrate the transferability of the Subtype and Stage Inference (SuStaIn) model from well-characterized research data set, employed as training set, to independent less-structured and heterogeneous test sets representative of the clinical setting. The training set was composed of MRI data of 1043 subjects from the Alzheimer’s disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI), and the test set was composed of data from 767 subjects from OASIS, Pharma-Cog, and ViTA clinical datasets. Both sets included subjects covering the entire spectrum of AD, and for both sets volumes of relevant brain regions were derived from T1-3D MRI scans processed with Freesurfer v5.3 cross-sectional stream. In order to assess the predictive value of the model, subpopulations of subjects with stable mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and MCIs that progressed to AD dementia (pMCI) were identified in both sets. SuStaIn identified three disease subtypes, of which the most prevalent corresponded to the typical atrophy pattern of AD. The other SuStaIn subtypes exhibited similarities with the previously defined hippocampal sparing and limbic predominant atrophy patterns of AD. Subject subtyping proved to be consistent in time for all cohorts and the staging provided by the model was correlated with cognitive performance. Classification of subjects on the basis of a combination of SuStaIn subtype and stage, mini mental state examination and amyloid-β_1-42 cerebrospinal fluid concentration was proven to predict conversion from MCI to AD dementia on par with other novel statistical algorithms, with ROC curves that were not statistically different for the training and test sets and with area under curve respectively equal to 0.77 and 0.76. This study proves the transferability of a SuStaIn model for AD from research data to less-structured clinical cohorts, and indicates transferability to the clinical setting.

Four distinct trajectories of tau deposition identified in Alzheimer's disease

Alzheimer's disease (AD) is characterized by the spread of tau pathology throughout the cerebral cortex. This spreading pattern was thought to be fairly consistent across individuals, although recent work has demonstrated substantial variability in the population with AD. Using tau-positron emission tomography scans from 1,612 individuals, we identified 4 distinct spatiotemporal trajectories of tau pathology, ranging in prevalence from 18 to 33%. We replicated previously described limbic-predominant and medial temporal lobe-sparing patterns, while also discovering posterior and lateral temporal patterns resembling atypical clinical variants of AD. These 'subtypes' were stable during longitudinal follow-up and were replicated in a separate sample using a different radiotracer. The subtypes presented with distinct demographic and cognitive profiles and differing longitudinal outcomes. Additionally, network diffusion models implied that pathology originates and spreads through distinct corticolimbic networks in the different subtypes. Together, our results suggest that variation in tau pathology is common and systematic, perhaps warranting a re-examination of the notion of 'typical AD' and a revisiting of tau pathological staging.

O54: GENDER REPRESENTATION IN EDITORIAL BOARDS OF INTERNATIONAL GENERAL SURGERY JOURNALS

Introduction

Despite women constituting over half of new UK doctors, and a similar proportion worldwide, gender disparity remains an issue throughout academic medicine. Surgery has shown particularly slow progress towards gender parity. This study aims to quantify gender representation within editorial boards of the top 25 general surgical journals.

Method

All surgical journals were collated using the SCImago Journal Rank (SJR) and Journal Impact Factor (JIF). Non general surgery journals were excluded. Journals were contacted requesting gender editorial team demographics. Editorial board data was collected via journal websites on 20th November 2019.

Result

The top 25 surgical journals were determined through SJR and JIF ranking methods. Editorial board data was publicly available for 31 of these 32 different surgical journals. This data was then examined. Women accounted for 18.4% (576/3135) of total editorial board positions. Women constituted 12.5% (5/40) of Editors-in-Chief positions, 31.6% (31/98) of Deputy Editors and 17.2% (416/2415) of general editorial board positions.

Conclusion

For the first time, gender disparity has been demonstrated within editorial boards of the most prominent general surgery journals. The implications of such significant gender disparity are wide reaching. Action should be taken to champion fair female representation, eliminate risk of bias and provide more visible female role models in academic surgery.

Take-home message

For the first time, this study demonstrates gender disparity in Editorial boards of major general surgery journals. Action should be taken to champion fair female representation, eliminate risk of bias and provide more visible female role models in academic surgery.

Sequence of clinical and neurodegeneration events in Parkinson's disease progression

Dementia is one of the most debilitating aspects of Parkinson's disease. There are no validated biomarkers that can track Parkinson's disease progression, nor accurately identify patients who will develop dementia and when. Understanding the sequence of observable changes in Parkinson's disease in people at elevated risk for developing dementia could provide an integrated biomarker for identifying and managing individuals who will develop Parkinson's dementia. We aimed to estimate the sequence of clinical and neurodegeneration events, and variability in this sequence, using data-driven statistical modelling in two separate Parkinson's cohorts, focusing on patients at elevated risk for dementia due to their age at symptom onset. We updated a novel version of an event-based model that has only recently been extended to cope naturally with clinical data, enabling its application in Parkinson's disease for the first time. The observational cohorts included healthy control subjects and patients with Parkinson's disease, of whom those diagnosed at age 65 or older were classified as having high risk of dementia. The model estimates that Parkinson's progression in patients at elevated risk for dementia starts with classic prodromal features of Parkinson's disease (olfaction, sleep), followed by early deficits in visual cognition and increased brain iron content, followed later by a less certain ordering of neurodegeneration in the substantia nigra and cortex, neuropsychological cognitive deficits, retinal thinning in dopamine layers, and further deficits in visual cognition. Importantly, we also characterize variation in the sequence. We found consistent, cross-validated results within cohorts, and agreement between cohorts on the subset of features available in both cohorts. Our sequencing results add powerful support to the increasing body of evidence suggesting that visual processing specifically is affected early in patients with Parkinson's disease at elevated risk of dementia. This opens a route to earlier and more precise detection, as well as a more detailed understanding of the pathological mechanisms underpinning Parkinson's dementia.

Gender representation in editorial boards of international general surgery journals

Background

Despite women constituting over half of new doctors, gender disparity remains an issue. Surgery has shown particularly slow progress towards gender parity. This study aimed to quantify gender representation within editorial boards of the highest ranking international general surgery journals.

Methods

Surgical journals were collated using two indices: SCImago Journal Rank (SJR) and Journal Impact Factor (JIF). Non-general surgery journals were excluded. Journals were contacted, requesting gender editorial team demographics. Editorial board data were collected via journal websites on 28 November 2019.

Results

The top 25 general surgery journals according to SJR and JIF ranking methods were determined, identifying 28 unique journals. Editorial board data were publicly available for 27 of these 28 surgical journals, and were examined. Women accounted for 20.2 per cent (568 of 2816) of total editorial board positions. Women constituted 11 per cent (4 of 36) of editor-in-chief positions, 32 per cent (29 of 92) of deputy editors, and 19.1 per cent (369 of 1935) of general editorial board positions.

Conclusion

The findings demonstrate gender disparity within editorial boards of the most prominent general surgery journals.

Thoracic Imaging at Exacerbation of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease: A Systematic Review

Exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) are currently diagnosed based on changes in respiratory symptoms. Characterizing the imaging manifestation of exacerbations could be useful for objective diagnosis of exacerbations in the clinic and clinical trials, as well as provide a mechanism for monitoring exacerbation treatment and recovery. In this systematic review, we employed a comprehensive search across three databases (Medline, EMBASE, Web of Science) to identify studies that performed imaging of the thorax at COPD exacerbation. We included 51 from a total of 5,047 articles which met all our inclusion criteria. We used an adapted version of the Modified Newcastle-Ottawa Quality Assessment Scale for cohort studies to assess the quality of the included studies. Conclusions were weighted towards higher-quality articles. We identified a total of 36 thoracic imaging features studied at exacerbation of COPD. Studies were generally heterogeneous in their measurements and focus. Nevertheless, considering studies which performed consecutive imaging at stable state and exacerbation, which scored highest for quality, we identified salient imaging biomarkers of exacerbations. An exacerbation is characterized by airway wall and airway calibre changes, hyperinflation, pulmonary vasoconstriction and imaging features suggestive of pulmonary arterial hypertension. Most information was gained from CT studies. We present the first ever composite imaging signature of COPD exacerbations. While imaging during an exacerbation is comparatively new and not comprehensively studied, it may uncover important insights into the acute pathophysiologic changes in the cardiorespiratory system during exacerbations of COPD, providing objective confirmation of events and a biomarker of recovery and treatment response.

Sequences of cognitive decline in typical Alzheimer's disease and posterior cortical atrophy estimated using a novel event-based model of disease progression

Introduction

This work aims to characterize the sequence in which cognitive deficits appear in two dementia syndromes.

Methods

Event‐based modeling estimated fine‐grained sequences of cognitive decline in clinically‐diagnosed posterior cortical atrophy (PCA) (n=94) and typical Alzheimer's disease (tAD) (n=61) at the UCL Dementia Research Centre. Our neuropsychological battery assessed memory, vision, arithmetic, and general cognition. We adapted the event‐based model to handle highly non‐Gaussian data such as cognitive test scores where ceiling/floor effects are common.

Results

Experiments revealed differences and similarities in the fine‐grained ordering of cognitive decline in PCA (vision first) and tAD (memory first). Simulation experiments reveal that our new model equals or exceeds performance of the classic event‐based model, especially for highly non‐Gaussian data.

Discussion

Our model recovered realistic, phenotypical progression signatures that may be applied in dementia clinical trials for enrichment, and as a data‐driven composite cognitive end‐point.

Disease Progression Modeling in Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease

Rationale: The decades-long progression of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) renders identifying different trajectories of disease progression challenging.Objectives: To identify subtypes of patients with COPD with distinct longitudinal progression patterns using a novel machine-learning tool called "Subtype and Stage Inference" (SuStaIn) and to evaluate the utility of SuStaIn for patient stratification in COPD.Methods: We applied SuStaIn to cross-sectional computed tomography imaging markers in 3,698 Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD) 1-4 patients and 3,479 controls from the COPDGene (COPD Genetic Epidemiology) study to identify subtypes of patients with COPD. We confirmed the identified subtypes and progression patterns using ECLIPSE (Evaluation of COPD Longitudinally to Identify Predictive Surrogate Endpoints) data. We assessed the utility of SuStaIn for patient stratification by comparing SuStaIn subtypes and stages at baseline with longitudinal follow-up data.Measurements and Main Results: We identified two trajectories of disease progression in COPD: a "Tissue→Airway" subtype (n = 2,354, 70.4%), in which small airway dysfunction and emphysema precede large airway wall abnormalities, and an "Airway→Tissue" subtype (n = 988, 29.6%), in which large airway wall abnormalities precede emphysema and small airway dysfunction. Subtypes were reproducible in ECLIPSE. Baseline stage in both subtypes correlated with future FEV₁/FVC decline (r = -0.16 [P < 0.001] in the Tissue→Airway group; r = -0.14 [P = 0.011] in the Airway→Tissue group). SuStaIn placed 30% of smokers with normal lung function at elevated stages, suggesting imaging changes consistent with early COPD. Individuals with early changes were 2.5 times more likely to meet COPD diagnostic criteria at follow-up.Conclusions: We demonstrate two distinct patterns of disease progression in COPD using SuStaIn, likely representing different endotypes. One third of healthy smokers have detectable imaging changes, suggesting a new biomarker of "early COPD."

Evolution of white matter damage in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis

OBJECTIVE

To characterize disease evolution in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis using an event-based model designed to extract temporal information from cross-sectional data. Conventional methods for understanding mechanisms of rapidly progressive neurodegenerative disorders are limited by the subjectivity inherent in the selection of a limited range of measurements, and the need to acquire longitudinal data.

METHODS

The event-based model characterizes a disease as a series of events, each comprising a significant change in subject state. The model was applied to data from 154 patients and 128 healthy controls selected from five independent diffusion MRI datasets acquired in four different imaging laboratories between 1999 and 2016. The biomarkers modeled were mean fractional anisotropy values of white matter tracts implicated in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis. The cerebral portion of the corticospinal tract was divided into three segments.

RESULTS

Application of the model to the pooled datasets revealed that the corticospinal tracts were involved before other white matter tracts. Distal corticospinal tract segments were involved earlier than more proximal (i.e., cephalad) segments. In addition, the model revealed early ordering of fractional anisotropy change in the corpus callosum and subsequently in long association fibers.

INTERPRETATION

These findings represent data-driven evidence for early involvement of the corticospinal tracts and body of the corpus callosum in keeping with conventional approaches to image analysis, while providing new evidence to inform directional degeneration of the corticospinal tracts. This data-driven model provides new insight into the dynamics of neuronal damage in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis.

Disease Knowledge Transfer across Neurodegenerative Diseases

We introduce Disease Knowledge Transfer (DKT), a novel technique for transferring biomarker information between related neurodegenerative diseases. DKT infers robust multimodal biomarker trajectories in rare neurodegenerative diseases even when only limited, unimodal data is available, by transferring information from larger multimodal datasets from common neurodegenerative diseases. DKT is a joint-disease generative model of biomarker progressions, which exploits biomarker relationships that are shared across diseases. Our proposed method allows, for the first time, the estimation of plausible multimodal biomarker trajectories in Posterior Cortical Atrophy (PCA), a rare neurodegenerative disease where only unimodal MRI data is available. For this we train DKT on a combined dataset containing subjects with two distinct diseases and sizes of data available: 1) a larger, multimodal typical AD (tAD) dataset from the TADPOLE Challenge, and 2) a smaller unimodal Posterior Cortical Atrophy (PCA) dataset from the Dementia Research Centre (DRC), for which only a limited number of Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) scans are available. Although validation is challenging due to lack of data in PCA, we validate DKT on synthetic data and two patient datasets (TADPOLE and PCA cohorts), showing it can estimate the ground truth parameters in the simulation and predict unseen biomarkers on the two patient datasets. While we demonstrated DKT on Alzheimer's variants, we note DKT is generalisable to other forms of related neurodegenerative diseases. Source code for DKT is available online: https://github.com/mrazvan22/dkt.

Multi-study validation of data-driven disease progression models to characterize evolution of biomarkers in Alzheimer's disease

Understanding the sequence of biological and clinical events along the course of Alzheimer's disease provides insights into dementia pathophysiology and can help participant selection in clinical trials. Our objective is to train two data-driven computational models for sequencing these events, the Event Based Model (EBM) and discriminative-EBM (DEBM), on the basis of well-characterized research data, then validate the trained models on subjects from clinical cohorts characterized by less-structured data-acquisition protocols.

Seven independent data cohorts were considered totalling 2389 cognitively normal (CN), 1424 mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and 743 Alzheimer's disease (AD) patients. The Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) data set was used as training set for the constriction of disease models while a collection of multi-centric data cohorts was used as test set for validation. Cross-sectional information related to clinical, cognitive, imaging and cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) biomarkers was used.

Event sequences obtained with EBM and DEBM showed differences in the ordering of single biomarkers but according to both the first biomarkers to become abnormal were those related to CSF, followed by cognitive scores, while structural imaging showed significant volumetric decreases at later stages of the disease progression. Staging of test set subjects based on sequences obtained with both models showed good linear correlation with the Mini Mental State Examination score (R²_EBM = 0.866; R²_DEBM = 0.906). In discriminant analyses, significant differences (p-value ≤ 0.05) between the staging of subjects from training and test sets were observed in both models. No significant difference between the staging of subjects from the training and test was observed (p-value > 0.05) when considering a subset composed by 562 subjects for which all biomarker families (cognitive, imaging and CSF) are available.

Event sequence obtained with DEBM recapitulates the heuristic models in a data-driven fashion and is clinically plausible. We demonstrated inter-cohort transferability of two disease progression models and their robustness in detecting AD phases. This is an important step towards the adoption of data-driven statistical models into clinical domain.

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Data-driven event sequences describe evolution of relevant biomarkers in AD.

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Agreement between event sequences and heuristic AD progression models

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Accuracy in classifying subjects from clinical cohorts up to 91%

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Staging of subjects and MMSE scores of individuals show linear relation.

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Transferability of AD progression models based on research data to clinical cohorts

Progression of regional grey matter atrophy in multiple sclerosis

See Stankoff and Louapre (doi:10.1093/brain/awy114) for a scientific commentary on this article.

Grey matter atrophy is present from the earliest stages of multiple sclerosis, but its temporal ordering is poorly understood. We aimed to determine the sequence in which grey matter regions become atrophic in multiple sclerosis and its association with disability accumulation. In this longitudinal study, we included 1417 subjects: 253 with clinically isolated syndrome, 708 with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis, 128 with secondary-progressive multiple sclerosis, 125 with primary-progressive multiple sclerosis, and 203 healthy control subjects from seven European centres. Subjects underwent repeated MRI (total number of scans 3604); the mean follow-up for patients was 2.41 years (standard deviation = 1.97). Disability was scored using the Expanded Disability Status Scale. We calculated the volume of brain grey matter regions and brainstem using an unbiased within-subject template and used an established data-driven event-based model to determine the sequence of occurrence of atrophy and its uncertainty. We assigned each subject to a specific event-based model stage, based on the number of their atrophic regions. Linear mixed-effects models were used to explore associations between the rate of increase in event-based model stages, and T₂ lesion load, disease-modifying treatments, comorbidity, disease duration and disability accumulation. The first regions to become atrophic in patients with clinically isolated syndrome and relapse-onset multiple sclerosis were the posterior cingulate cortex and precuneus, followed by the middle cingulate cortex, brainstem and thalamus. A similar sequence of atrophy was detected in primary-progressive multiple sclerosis with the involvement of the thalamus, cuneus, precuneus, and pallidum, followed by the brainstem and posterior cingulate cortex. The cerebellum, caudate and putamen showed early atrophy in relapse-onset multiple sclerosis and late atrophy in primary-progressive multiple sclerosis. Patients with secondary-progressive multiple sclerosis showed the highest event-based model stage (the highest number of atrophic regions, P < 0.001) at the study entry. All multiple sclerosis phenotypes, but clinically isolated syndrome, showed a faster rate of increase in the event-based model stage than healthy controls. T₂ lesion load and disease duration in all patients were associated with increased event-based model stage, but no effects of disease-modifying treatments and comorbidity on event-based model stage were observed. The annualized rate of event-based model stage was associated with the disability accumulation in relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis, independent of disease duration (P < 0.0001). The data-driven staging of atrophy progression in a large multiple sclerosis sample demonstrates that grey matter atrophy spreads to involve more regions over time. The sequence in which regions become atrophic is reasonably consistent across multiple sclerosis phenotypes. The spread of atrophy was associated with disease duration and with disability accumulation over time in relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis.

Longitudinal neuroanatomical and cognitive progression of posterior cortical atrophy

Posterior cortical atrophy is a clinico-radiological syndrome characterized by progressive decline in visual processing and atrophy of posterior brain regions. With the majority of cases attributable to Alzheimer's disease and recent evidence for genetic risk factors specifically related to posterior cortical atrophy, the syndrome can provide important insights into selective vulnerability and phenotypic diversity. The present study describes the first major longitudinal investigation of posterior cortical atrophy disease progression. Three hundred and sixty-one individuals (117 posterior cortical atrophy, 106 typical Alzheimer's disease, 138 controls) fulfilling consensus criteria for posterior cortical atrophy-pure and typical Alzheimer's disease were recruited from three centres in the UK, Spain and USA. Participants underwent up to six annual assessments involving MRI scans and neuropsychological testing. We constructed longitudinal trajectories of regional brain volumes within posterior cortical atrophy and typical Alzheimer's disease using differential equation models. We compared and contrasted the order in which regional brain volumes become abnormal within posterior cortical atrophy and typical Alzheimer's disease using event-based models. We also examined trajectories of cognitive decline and the order in which different cognitive tests show abnormality using the same models. Temporally aligned trajectories for eight regions of interest revealed distinct (P < 0.002) patterns of progression in posterior cortical atrophy and typical Alzheimer's disease. Patients with posterior cortical atrophy showed early occipital and parietal atrophy, with subsequent higher rates of temporal atrophy and ventricular expansion leading to tissue loss of comparable extent later. Hippocampal, entorhinal and frontal regions underwent a lower rate of change and never approached the extent of posterior cortical involvement. Patients with typical Alzheimer's disease showed early hippocampal atrophy, with subsequent higher rates of temporal atrophy and ventricular expansion. Cognitive models showed tests sensitive to visuospatial dysfunction declined earlier in posterior cortical atrophy than typical Alzheimer's disease whilst tests sensitive to working memory impairment declined earlier in typical Alzheimer's disease than posterior cortical atrophy. These findings indicate that posterior cortical atrophy and typical Alzheimer's disease have distinct sites of onset and different profiles of spatial and temporal progression. The ordering of disease events both motivates investigation of biological factors underpinning phenotypic heterogeneity, and informs the selection of measures for clinical trials in posterior cortical atrophy.

Epidemiology of myopia and prevention of myopia progression in children in East Asia: a review

INTRODUCTION

Myopia (short-sightedness) exhibits high prevalence in East Asia. Methods to mitigate myopia progression are important in preventing the vision-threatening complications associated with high myopia. In this review, we examine the regional epidemiology of myopia and provide updated evidence regarding interventions to slow myopia progression in children.

METHODS

We performed a literature search using PubMed from the date of inception through 25 June 2018. Studies involving myopia epidemiology and control of myopia progression were selected; only studies published in English were reviewed. Preference was given to prospective studies, as well as those conducted in Hong Kong or East Asia.

RESULTS

Atropine eye drops and pirenzepine eye gel are highly effective for controlling myopia progression in children. Orthokeratology, peripheral defocus contact lenses, bifocal or progressive addition spectacles, and increased involvement in outdoor activities are also effective for controlling myopia progression; however, myopia undercorrection and single vision contact lenses are ineffective.

CONCLUSION

Although various methods are effective for controlling myopia progression in children, no curative remedy exists for myopia. Health care professionals should be aware of the available methods, as well as their risks and benefits. Treatment should be individualised and based on the preferences of the patient's family, after full discussion of the risks and benefits of each modality.

Expectations of outcomes in patients with colorectal cancer

Background

Understanding patients' expectations of their treatment is critical to ensure appropriate treatment decisions, and to explore how expectations influence coping, quality of life and well‐being. This study aimed to examine these issues related to treatment in patients with colorectal cancer.

Methods

A literature search from January 1946 to September 2016 was performed to identify available data regarding patients' expectations of outcomes following colorectal cancer treatment. A narrative synthesis of the evidence was planned.

Results

Of 4337 items initially identified, 20 articles were included in the review. In studies presenting data on overall and short‐term survival, patients considerably overestimated prognosis. Patients also had unrealistic expectations of the negative aspects of chemotherapy and stomas. There was marked discordance between patients' and clinicians' expectations regarding chemotherapy, end‐of‐life care, bowel function and psychosocial outcomes. Level of education was the most consistent factor influencing the accuracy of patients' expectations.

Conclusion

Patients with colorectal cancer frequently have unrealistic expectations of treatment. Marked disparities exist between patients' and clinicians' expectations of outcomes.