Polygenic Risk Score Is Associated With Intraocular Pressure and Improves Glaucoma Prediction in the UK Biobank Cohort

Polygenic Risk Scores Driving Clinical Change in Glaucoma

Glaucoma is a clinically heterogeneous disease and the world's leading cause of irreversible blindness. Therapeutic intervention can prevent blindness but relies on early diagnosis, and current clinical risk factors are limited in their ability to predict who will develop sight-threatening glaucoma. The high heritability of glaucoma makes it an ideal substrate for genetic risk prediction, with the bulk of risk being polygenic in nature. Here, we summarize the foundations of glaucoma genetic risk, the development of polygenic risk prediction instruments, and emerging opportunities for genetic risk stratification. Although challenges remain, genetic risk stratification will significantly improve glaucoma screening and management.

Screening Strategies and Methodologies

PRCIS

While glaucoma is a leading cause of irreversible vision loss, it presents technical challenges in the design and implementation of screening. New technologies such as PRS and AI offer potential improvements in our ability to identify people at high risk of sight loss from glaucoma and may improve the viability of screening for this important disease.

PURPOSE

To review the current evidence and concepts around screening for glaucoma.

METHODS/RESULTS

A group of glaucoma-focused clinician scientists drew on knowledge and experience around glaucoma, its etiology, and the options for screening. Glaucoma is a chronic progressive optic neuropathy affecting around 76 million individuals worldwide and is the leading cause of irreversible blindness globally. Early stages of the disease are asymptomatic meaning a substantial proportion of cases remain undiagnosed. Early detection and timely intervention reduce the risk of glaucoma-related visual morbidity. However, imperfect tests and a relatively low prevalence currently limit the viability of population-based screening approaches. The diagnostic yield of opportunistic screening strategies, relying on the identification of disease during unrelated health care encounters, such as cataract clinics and diabetic retinopathy screening programs, focusing on older people and/or those with a family history, are hindered by a large number of false-positive and false-negative results. Polygenic risk scores (PRS) offer personalized risk assessment for adult-onset glaucoma. In addition, artificial intelligence (AI) algorithms have shown impressive performance, comparable to expert humans, in discriminating between potentially glaucomatous and non-glaucomatous eyes. These emerging technologies may offer a meaningful improvement in diagnostic yield in glaucoma screening.

CONCLUSIONS

While glaucoma is a leading cause of irreversible vision loss, it presents technical challenges in the design and implementation of screening. New technologies such as PRS and AI offer potential improvements in our ability to identify people at high risk of sight loss from glaucoma and may improve the viability of screening for this important disease.

Screening of Glaucoma: Consensus and Directions

PURPOSE

Glaucoma is a leading public health concern globally. This summary discusses barriers to glaucoma screening and novel strategies for a cost-effective glaucoma screening.

METHODS/RESULTS

We discuss barriers to glaucoma screening and recent advancements in glaucoma detection and care, including targeted screening approach as well as telemedicine, genetic testing, and artificial intelligence (AI). A major barrier to glaucoma screening is the cost-effectiveness of case finding resulting from the low prevalence of the disease and the complexity of the diagnosis. Targeted-screening, as well as multi-level screening, can reduce the false positive rate and increase the cost-effectiveness of the program. Telemedicine, availability of genetic testing and polygenic risk scores, and AI provide the opportunity for novel glaucoma screening programs in primary care, portable, and home-based settings and will be helpful for lowering the costs, identifying patients in need of urgent treatment and enabling timely diagnosis and early intervention.

CONCLUSIONS

Screening of glaucoma is challenging and changing. Recent advancements in digital technology and genetics have led to the development of tools that are promising for novel screening methodologies. Clinical trials are needed to demonstrate the long-term effect of targeted screening on the burden of glaucoma worldwide.

Use of Diagnostic Codes for Primary Open-Angle Glaucoma Polygenic Risk Score Construction in Electronic Health Record-Linked Biobanks

PURPOSE

Polygenic risk scores (PRSs) likely predict risk and prognosis of glaucoma. We compared the PRS performance for primary open-angle glaucoma (POAG), defined using International Classification of Diseases (ICD) codes vs manual medical record review.

DESIGN

Retrospective cohort study.

METHODS

We identified POAG cases in the Mount Sinai BioMe and Mass General Brigham (MGB) biobanks using ICD codes. We confirmed POAG based on optical coherence tomograms and visual fields. In a separate 5% sample, the absence of POAG was confirmed with intraocular pressure and cup-disc ratio criteria. We used genotype data and either self-reported glaucoma diagnoses or ICD-10 codes for glaucoma diagnoses from the UK Biobank and the lassosum method to compute a genome-wide POAG PRS. We compared the area under the curve (AUC) for POAG prediction based on ICD codes vs medical records.

RESULTS

We reviewed 804 of 996 BioMe and 367 of 1006 MGB ICD-identified cases. In BioMe and MGB, respectively, positive predictive value was 53% and 55%; negative predictive value was 96% and 97%; sensitivity was 97% and 97%; and specificity was 44% and 53%. Adjusted PRS AUCs for POAG using ICD codes vs manual record review in BioMe were not statistically different (P ≥.21) by ancestry: 0.77 vs 0.75 for African, 0.80 vs 0.80 for Hispanic, and 0.81 vs 0.81 for European. Results were similar in MGB (P ≥.18): 0.72 vs 0.80 for African, 0.83 vs 0.86 for Hispanic, and 0.74 vs 0.73 for European.

CONCLUSIONS

A POAG PRS performed similarly using either manual review or ICD codes in 2 electronic health record-linked biobanks; manual assessment of glaucoma status might not be necessary for some PRS studies. However, caution should be exercised when using ICD codes for glaucoma diagnosis given their low specificity (44%-53%) for manually confirmed cases of glaucoma.

Genetic Risk Assessment of Degenerative Eye Disease (GRADE): study protocol of a prospective assessment of polygenic risk scores to predict diagnosis of glaucoma and age-related macular degeneration

BACKGROUND

Glaucoma and age-related macular degeneration (AMD) account for a substantial portion of global blindness. Both conditions are highly heritable, with recognised monogenic and polygenic inheritance patterns. Current screening guidelines lack decisive recommendations. Polygenic risk scores (PRS) allow for cost-effective broad population risk stratification for these conditions. The predictive potential of PRS could facilitate earlier diagnosis and treatment, and prevent unnecessary vision loss.

METHODS

The Genetic Risk Assessment of Degenerative Eye disease (GRADE) study is a prospective study designed to generate high-quality evidence about the feasibility of PRS to stratify individuals from the general population, enabling identification of those at highest risk of developing glaucoma or AMD. The targeted recruitment is 1000 individuals aged over 50 years, from which blood or saliva samples will be used for genotyping and an individual PRS for glaucoma and AMD will be derived. Individuals with PRS values in the bottom decile (n = 100), top decile (n = 100) and middle 80% (n = 100) for both glaucoma and AMD will undergo a detailed eye examination for glaucoma and/or AMD.

DISCUSSION

The primary objective will be to compare the prevalence of glaucoma and AMD cases between low, intermediate, and high PRS risk groups. We expect to find a higher prevalence of both diseases in the high PRS risk group, as compared to the middle and low risk groups. This prospective study will assess the clinical validity of a PRS for glaucoma and AMD in the general Australian population. Positive findings will support the implementation of PRS into clinical practice.

The Application of MicroRNAs in Glaucoma Research: A Bibliometric and Visualized Analysis

Glaucoma is similar to a neurodegenerative disorder and leads to global irreversible loss of vision. Despite extensive research, the pathophysiological mechanisms of glaucoma remain unclear, and no complete cure has yet been identified for glaucoma. Recent studies have shown that microRNAs can serve as diagnostic biomarkers or therapeutic targets for glaucoma; however, there are few bibliometric studies that focus on using microRNAs in glaucoma research. Here, we have adopted a bibliometric analysis in the field of microRNAs in glaucoma research to manifest the current tendencies and research hotspots and to present a visual map of the past and emerging tendencies in this field. In this study, we retrieved publications in the Web of Science database that centered on this field between 2007 and 2022. Next, we used VOSviewer, CiteSpace, Scimago Graphica, and Microsoft Excel to present visual representations of a co-occurrence analysis, co-citation analysis, tendencies, hotspots, and the contributions of authors, institutions, journals, and countries/regions. The United States was the main contributor. Investigative Ophthalmology and Visual Science has published the most articles in this field. Over the past 15 years, there has been exponential growth in the number of publications and citations in this field across various countries, organizations, and authors. Thus, this study illustrates the current trends, hotspots, and emerging frontiers and provides new insight and guidance for searching for new diagnostic biomarkers and clinical trials for glaucoma in the future. Furthermore, international collaborations can also be used to broaden and deepen the field of microRNAs in glaucoma research.

Deep Ocular Phenotyping Across Primary Open-Angle Glaucoma Genetic Burden

Importance

Better understanding of primary open-angle glaucoma (POAG) genetics could enable timely screening and promote individualized disease risk prognostication.

Objective

To evaluate phenotypic features across genetic burden for POAG.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This was a cross-sectional, population-based study conducted from 2006 to 2010. Included participants were individuals from the UK Biobank aged 40 to 69 years. Individuals with non-POAG forms of glaucoma were excluded from the analysis. Data were statistically analyzed from October 2022 to January 2023.

Main Outcomes and Measures

POAG prevalence based on structural coding, self-reports, and glaucoma-related traits.

Results

Among 407 667 participants (mean [SD] age, 56.3 [8.1] years; 219 183 majority sex [53.8%]) were 14 171 POAG cases. Area under receiver operating characteristic curve for POAG detection was 0.748 in a model including polygenic risk score (PRS), age, sex, and ancestry. POAG prevalence in the highest decile of PRS was 7.4% (3005 of 40 644) vs 1.3% (544 of 40 795) in lowest decile (P < .001). A 1-SD increase in PRS was associated with 1.74 times higher odds of POAG (95% CI, 1.71-1.77), a 0.61-mm Hg increase in corneal-compensated intraocular pressure (IOP; 95% CI, 0.59-0.64), a -0.09-mm Hg decrease in corneal hysteresis (95% CI, -0.10 to -0.08), a 0.08-mm Hg increase in corneal resistance factor (95% CI, 0.06-0.09), and a -0.08-diopter decrease in spherical equivalent (95% CI, -0.11 to -0.07; P < .001 for all). A 1-SD increase in PRS was associated with a thinning of the macula-region retinal nerve fiber layer (mRNFL) of 0.14 μm and macular ganglion cell complex (GCC) of 0.26 μm (P < .001 for both). In the subset of individuals with fundus photographs, a 1-SD increase in PRS was associated with 1.42 times higher odds of suspicious optic disc features (95% CI, 1.19-1.69) and a 0.013 increase in cup-disc ratio (CDR; 95% CI, 0.012-0.014; P < .001 for both). A total of 22 of 5193 fundus photographs (0.4%) in decile 10 had disc hemorrhages, and 27 of 5257 (0.5%) had suspicious optic disc features compared with 9 of 5158 (0.2%) and 10 of 5219 (0.2%), respectively, in decile 1 (P < .001 for both). CDR in decile 10 was 0.46 compared with 0.41 in decile 1 (P < .001).

Conclusion and Relevance

Results suggest that PRS identified a group of individuals at substantially higher risk for POAG. Higher genetic risk was associated with more advanced disease, namely higher CDR and corneal-compensated IOP, thinner mRNFL, and thinner GCC. Associations with POAG PRS and corneal hysteresis and greater prevalence of disc hemorrhages were identified. These results suggest that genetic risk is an increasingly important parameter for risk stratification to consider in clinical practice.

Familial normal tension glaucoma genetics

Glaucoma is defined by characteristic optic nerve damage and corresponding visual field defects and is the leading cause of irreversible blindness in the world. Elevated intraocular pressure (IOP) is a strong risk factor for developing glaucoma. However, glaucoma can occur at any IOP. Normal tension glaucoma (NTG) arises with IOPs that are within what has been defined as a normal range, i.e., 21 mm Hg or less, which may present challenges in its diagnosis and management. Identifying inheritance patterns and genetic mutations in families with NTG has helped elucidate mechanisms of NTG, however the pathophysiology is complex and not fully understood. Approximately 2% of NTG cases are caused primarily by mutations in single genes, optineurin (OPTN), TANK binding kinase 1 (TKB1), or myocilin (MYOC). Herein, we review pedigree studies of NTG and autosomal dominant NTG caused by OPTN, TBK1, and MYOC mutations. We review identified mutations and resulting clinical features of OPTN-associated and TBK1-associated NTG, including long-term follow up of these patients with NTG. In addition, we report a new four-generation pedigree of NTG caused by a Glu50Lys OPTN mutation, including six family members with a mean follow up of 17 years. Common features of OPTN -associated NTG due to Glu50Lys mutation included early onset of disease with an IOP <21 mm Hg, marked optic disc cupping, and progressive visual field loss which appeared to stabilize once an IOP of less than 10 mm Hg was achieved. Lastly, we review risk factor genes which have been identified to contribute to the complex inheritance of NTG.

10 Years of GWAS in intraocular pressure

Intraocular pressure (IOP) is the only modifiable risk factor for glaucoma, the leading cause of irreversible blindness worldwide. In this review, we summarize the findings of genome-wide association studies (GWASs) of IOP published in the past 10 years and prior to December 2022. Over 190 genetic loci and candidate genes associated with IOP have been uncovered through GWASs, although most of these studies were conducted in subjects of European and Asian ancestries. We also discuss how these common variants have been used to derive polygenic risk scores for predicting IOP and glaucoma, and to infer causal relationship with other traits and conditions through Mendelian randomization. Additionally, we summarize the findings from a recent large-scale exome-wide association study (ExWAS) that identified rare variants associated with IOP in 40 novel genes, six of which are drug targets for clinical treatment or are being evaluated in clinical trials. Finally, we discuss the need for future genetic studies of IOP to include individuals from understudied populations, including Latinos and Africans, in order to fully characterize the genetic architecture of IOP.

Explainable machine learning aggregates polygenic risk scores and electronic health records for Alzheimer's disease prediction

Alzheimer's disease (AD) is the most common late-onset neurodegenerative disorder. Identifying individuals at increased risk of developing AD is important for early intervention. Using data from the Alzheimer Disease Genetics Consortium, we constructed polygenic risk scores (PRSs) for AD and age-at-onset (AAO) of AD for the UK Biobank participants. We then built machine learning (ML) models for predicting development of AD, and explored feature importance among PRSs, conventional risk factors, and ICD-10 codes from electronic health records, a total of > 11,000 features using the UK Biobank dataset. We used eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) and SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP), which provided superior ML performance as well as aided ML model explanation. For participants age 40 and older, the area under the curve for AD was 0.88. For subjects of age 65 and older (late-onset AD), PRSs were the most important predictors. This is the first observation that PRSs constructed from the AD risk and AAO play more important roles than age in predicting AD. The ML model also identified important predictors from EHR, including urinary tract infection, syncope and collapse, chest pain, disorientation and hypercholesterolemia, for developing AD. Our ML model improved the accuracy of AD risk prediction by efficiently exploring numerous predictors and identified novel feature patterns.

Diversity in Polygenic Risk of Primary Open-Angle Glaucoma

Glaucoma is the leading cause of irreversible blindness worldwide. Primary open-angle glaucoma (POAG), the most common glaucoma subtype, is more prevalent and severe in individuals of African ancestry. Unfortunately, this ancestral group has been historically under-represented among genetic studies of POAG. Moreover, both genetic and polygenic risk scores (GRS, PRS) that are typically based on genetic data from European-descent populations are not transferable to individuals without a majority of European ancestry. Given the aspirations of leveraging genetic information for precision medicine, GRS and PRS demonstrate clinical potential but fall short, in part due to the lack of diversity in these studies. Prioritizing diversity in the discovery of risk variants will improve the performance and utility of GRS and PRS-derived risk estimation for disease stratification, which could bring about earlier POAG intervention and treatment for a disease that often goes undetected until significant damage has occurred.

Whole-exome sequencing study identifies rare variants and genes associated with intraocular pressure and glaucoma

Elevated intraocular pressure (IOP) is a major risk factor for glaucoma, the leading cause of irreversible blindness worldwide. IOP is also the only modifiable risk factor for glaucoma. Previous genome-wide association studies have established the contribution of common genetic variants to IOP. The role of rare variants for IOP was unknown. Using whole exome sequencing data from 110,260 participants in the UK Biobank (UKB), we conducted the largest exome-wide association study of IOP to date. In addition to confirming known IOP genes, we identified 40 novel rare-variant genes for IOP, such as BOD1L1, ACAD10 and HLA-B, demonstrating the power of including and aggregating rare variants in gene discovery. About half of these IOP genes are also associated with glaucoma phenotypes in UKB and the FinnGen cohort. Six of these genes, i.e. ADRB1, PTPRB, RPL26, RPL10A, EGLN2, and MTOR, are drug targets that are either established for clinical treatment or in clinical trials. Furthermore, we constructed a rare-variant polygenic risk score and showed its significant association with glaucoma in independent participants (n = 312,825). We demonstrated the value of rare variants to enhance our understanding of the biological mechanisms regulating IOP and uncovered potential therapeutic targets for glaucoma.

Glaucoma Genetic Risk Scores in the Million Veteran Program

PURPOSE

Primary open-angle glaucoma (POAG) is a degenerative eye disease for which early treatment is critical to mitigate visual impairment and irreversible blindness. POAG-associated loci individually confer incremental risk. Genetic risk score(s) (GRS) could enable POAG risk stratification. Despite significantly higher POAG burden among individuals of African ancestry (AFR), GRS are limited in this population. A recent large-scale, multi-ancestry meta-analysis identified 127 POAG-associated loci and calculated cross-ancestry and ancestry-specific effect estimates, including in European ancestry (EUR) and AFR individuals. We assessed the utility of the 127-variant GRS for POAG risk stratification in EUR and AFR Veterans in the Million Veteran Program (MVP). We also explored the association between GRS and documented invasive glaucoma surgery (IGS).

DESIGN

Cross-sectional study.

PARTICIPANTS

MVP Veterans with imputed genetic data, including 5830 POAG cases (445 with IGS documented in the electronic health record) and 64 476 controls.

METHODS

We tested unweighted and weighted GRS of 127 published risk variants in EUR (3382 cases and 58 811 controls) and AFR (2448 cases and 5665 controls) Veterans in the MVP. Weighted GRS were calculated using effect estimates from the most recently published report of cross-ancestry and ancestry-specific meta-analyses. We also evaluated GRS in POAG cases with documented IGS.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Performance of 127-variant GRS in EUR and AFR Veterans for POAG risk stratification and association with documented IGS.

RESULTS

GRS were significantly associated with POAG (P < 5 × 10-5) in both groups; a higher proportion of EUR compared with AFR were consistently categorized in the top GRS decile (21.9%-23.6% and 12.9%-14.5%, respectively). Only GRS weighted by ancestry-specific effect estimates were associated with IGS documentation in AFR cases; all GRS types were associated with IGS in EUR cases.

CONCLUSIONS

Varied performance of the GRS for POAG risk stratification and documented IGS association in EUR and AFR Veterans highlights (1) the complex risk architecture of POAG, (2) the importance of diverse representation in genomics studies that inform GRS construction and evaluation, and (3) the necessity of expanding diverse POAG-related genomic data so that GRS can equitably aid in screening individuals at high risk of POAG and who may require more aggressive treatment.

Background polygenic risk modulates the association between glaucoma and cardiopulmonary diseases and measures: an analysis from the UK Biobank

AIMS

To assess whether associations of cardiopulmonary conditions and markers with glaucoma differ by background genetic risk for primary open angle glaucoma (POAG).

METHODS

We constructed a POAG polygenic risk score (PRS) using genome-wide association study summary statistics from a large cross-ancestry meta-analysis. History of glaucoma (including self-report and codes for POAG, 'other glaucoma' or unspecified glaucoma), history of common cardiopulmonary conditions and cardiopulmonary measures were assessed in the UK Biobank. Stratifying by PRS decile 1 (lowest risk) versus decile 10 (highest risk), separate multivariable models were estimated to assess the associations of cardiopulmonary diseases or factors with glaucoma, adjusting for age, sex, smoking and medication use. A Bonferroni correction was used to adjust p values for multiple comparisons.

RESULTS

Individuals in POAG PRS decile 1 (417 cases, 44 458 controls; mean age 56.8 years) and decile 10 (2135 cases, 42 413 controls; mean age 56.7 years) were included. Within decile 1, glaucoma cases had significantly higher glycated haemoglobin (38.5 vs 35.9 mmol/mol) and higher prevalence of diabetes (17.5% vs 6.5%), dyslipidaemia (31.2% vs 18.3%) and chronic kidney disease (CKD) (6.7% vs 2.0%) than controls (adjusted p<0.0013 for each). Within decile 10, glaucoma was associated with higher prevalence of dyslipidaemia (27.7% vs 17.3%, p=6.9E-05). The magnitude of association between glaucoma and diabetes, CKD and glycated haemoglobin differed between deciles 1 and 10 (contrast test p value for difference <0.05).

CONCLUSION

The relations between systemic conditions and glaucoma vary by underlying genetic predisposition to POAG, with larger associations among those who developed glaucoma despite low genetic risk.

The genetics of glaucoma: Disease associations, personalised risk assessment and therapeutic opportunities-A review

Glaucoma refers to a heterogenous group of disorders characterised by progressive loss of retinal ganglion cells and associated visual field loss. Both early-onset and adult-onset forms of the disease have a strong genetic component. Here, we summarise the known genetic associations for various forms of glaucoma and the possible functional roles for these genes in disease pathogenesis. We also discuss efforts to translate genetic knowledge into clinical practice, including gene-based tests for disease diagnosis and risk-stratification as well as gene-based therapies.

Attitudes towards polygenic risk testing in individuals with glaucoma

PURPOSE

Glaucoma is the leading cause of irreversible blindness worldwide however, vision loss from glaucoma can generally be prevented through early identification and timely implementation of treatment. Recently, polygenic risk scores (PRS) have shown promise in stratifying individual risk and prognostication for primary open-angle glaucoma to reduce disease burden. Integrating PRS testing into clinical practice is becoming an increasingly realistic prospect, however, little is known about the attitudes of patients towards such testing.

DESIGN

Cross-sectional, questionnaire-based study.

PARTICIPANTS

2369 participants were invited to participate from the Australian and New Zealand Registry of Advanced Glaucoma (ANZRAG), who fit the inclusion criteria of adults with a diagnosis of POAG, had not received genetic results that explain their condition, were not known to be deceased, resided in Australia and had agreed to receive correspondence.

METHODS

1169 individuals (response rate 49%) with primary open-angle glaucoma completed the survey evaluating their attitudes towards polygenic risk testing for glaucoma.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Sociodemographic, health, perception, and emotional factors were examined to assess associations with interest in PRS testing. Interest in PRS testing was evaluated through assessing likelihood to take the test to predict personal risk of disease and disease severity, and whether the individual would recommend the test to family or non-family members.

RESULTS

Our results show strong interest in the test, with 69.4% of individuals (798 of 1150) indicating a keenness in testing prior to diagnosis, had it been available. In particular, interest was seen in those from an urban area (OR 1.70, 95%CI (1.15-2.49), p=0.007), those who perceived their risk of developing glaucoma as higher (OR 2.05, 95%CI (1.28-3.29), p=0.003), and those who were worried about developing glaucoma (OR 2.07, 95%CI (1.27-3.37), p=0.004). People who were interested in testing were more likely to change their eye health-seeking intentions and recommend testing to family and non-family members, as well as undergo testing for prognostication.

CONCLUSIONS

These findings will help to facilitate the clinical implementation of PRS testing for glaucoma to reduce irreversible vision loss.

Genome-Wide Polygenic Risk Score for Predicting High Risk Glaucoma Individuals of Han Chinese Ancestry

Glaucoma is a progressive and irreversible blindness-causing disease. However, the underlying genetic factors and molecular mechanisms remain poorly understood. Previous genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have made tremendous progress on the SNP-based disease association and characterization. However, most of them were conducted for Europeans. Since differential genetic characteristics among ethnic groups were evident in glaucoma, it is worthwhile to complete its genetic landscape from the larger cohorts of Asian individuals. Here, we present a GWAS based on the Taiwan Biobank. Among 1013 glaucoma patients and 36,562 controls, we identified a total of 138 independent glaucoma-associated SNPs at the significance level of p < 1 × 10⁻⁵. After clumping genetically linked SNPs (LD clumping), 134 independent SNPs with p < 10⁻⁴ were recruited to construct a Polygenic Risk Score (PRS). The model achieved an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.8387 (95% CI = [0.8269–0.8506]), and those within the top PRS quantile had a 45.48-fold increased risk of glaucoma compared with those within the lowest quantile. The PRS model was validated with an independent cohort that achieved an AUC of 0.7283, thereby showing the effectiveness of our polygenic risk score in predicting individuals in the Han Chinese population with higher glaucoma risks.

Estimating disease prevalence in large datasets using genetic risk scores

Clinical classification is essential for estimating disease prevalence but is difficult, often requiring complex investigations. The widespread availability of population level genetic data makes novel genetic stratification techniques a highly attractive alternative. We propose a generalizable mathematical framework for determining disease prevalence within a cohort using genetic risk scores. We compare and evaluate methods based on the means of genetic risk scores' distributions; the Earth Mover's Distance between distributions; a linear combination of kernel density estimates of distributions; and an Excess method. We demonstrate the performance of genetic stratification to produce robust prevalence estimates. Specifically, we show that robust estimates of prevalence are still possible even with rarer diseases, smaller cohort sizes and less discriminative genetic risk scores, highlighting the general utility of these approaches. Genetic stratification techniques offer exciting new research tools, enabling unbiased insights into disease prevalence and clinical characteristics unhampered by clinical classification criteria.

Automated Detection of Glaucoma With Interpretable Machine Learning Using Clinical Data and Multimodal Retinal Images

PURPOSE

To develop a multimodal model to automate glaucoma detection DESIGN: Development of a machine-learning glaucoma detection model METHODS: We selected a study cohort from the UK Biobank data set with 1193 eyes of 863 healthy subjects and 1283 eyes of 771 subjects with glaucoma. We trained a multimodal model that combines multiple deep neural nets, trained on macular optical coherence tomography volumes and color fundus photographs, with demographic and clinical data. We performed an interpretability analysis to identify features the model relied on to detect glaucoma. We determined the importance of different features in detecting glaucoma using interpretable machine learning methods. We also evaluated the model on subjects who did not have a diagnosis of glaucoma on the day of imaging but were later diagnosed (progress-to-glaucoma [PTG]).

RESULTS

Results show that a multimodal model that combines imaging with demographic and clinical features is highly accurate (area under the curve 0.97). Interpretation of this model highlights biological features known to be related to the disease, such as age, intraocular pressure, and optic disc morphology. Our model also points to previously unknown or disputed features, such as pulmonary function and retinal outer layers. Accurate prediction in PTG highlights variables that change with progression to glaucoma-age and pulmonary function.

CONCLUSIONS

The accuracy of our model suggests distinct sources of information in each imaging modality and in the different clinical and demographic variables. Interpretable machine learning methods elucidate subject-level prediction and help uncover the factors that lead to accurate predictions, pointing to potential disease mechanisms or variables related to the disease.

Risk Stratification and Clinical Utility of Polygenic Risk Scores in Ophthalmology

Translational Relevance

Common genetic variants can be used to effectively stratify the risk of disease development and progression and may be used to guide screening, triaging, monitoring, or treatment thresholds.

Analysis of risk allele frequencies of single nucleotide polymorphisms related to open-angle glaucoma in different ethnic groups

BACKGROUND

The prevalence of open-angle glaucoma (OAG) varies from 0.5% to 7.0% among populations of diverse ancestry, suggesting the existence of genetic differences. The purposes of this study were to provide insights into genetic causes of OAG, which can result in prevalence and phenotype differences among populations of diverse ancestry for OAG, and to compare allele frequencies of intraocular pressure (IOP) elevation-related SNPs in OAG among Koreans and other ethnic groups.

METHODS

We collected the data on a total of 135 OAG-associated single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) from a genome-wide association studies (GWAS) catalog. The population-level allele frequencies of these SNPs were derived based on the 1000 Genomes Project and Korean Reference Genome Database. We used Fisher's exact test to assess whether the effect allele at a given SNP was significantly enriched or depleted.

RESULTS

European, American, and South Asian populations showed similar heatmap patterns, while African, East Asian, and Korean populations had distinct patterns. Korean population presented different profiles compared to other groups; rs1579050 (FMNL2 gene), rs2024211 (CAV2;CAV1), and rs8141433 (GNB1L;TXNRD2 gene), which are known to be associated with IOP variation, were enriched in Americans, Europeans, and Africans, and depleted in Koreans. These can be the candidates for the causative genes of differences in the prevalence of IOP variation in OAG according to ethnic groups.

CONCLUSIONS

Differences in allele frequencies associated with IOP related SNPs between Koreans and other ethnicities were observed, which may explain the high prevalence of OAG with normal IOP predominantly in Koreans and East Asians.

Molecular Genetics of Glaucoma: Subtype and Ethnicity Considerations

Glaucoma, the world’s leading cause of irreversible blindness, is a complex disease, with differential presentation as well as ethnic and geographic disparities. The multifactorial nature of glaucoma complicates the study of genetics and genetic involvement in the disease process. This review synthesizes the current literature on glaucoma and genetics, as stratified by glaucoma subtype and ethnicity. Primary open-angle glaucoma (POAG) is the most common cause of glaucoma worldwide, with the only treatable risk factor (RF) being the reduction of intraocular pressure (IOP). Genes associated with elevated IOP or POAG risk include: ABCA1, AFAP1, ARHGEF12, ATXN2, CAV1, CDKN2B-AS1, FOXC1, GAS7, GMDS, SIX1/SIX6, TMCO1, and TXNRD2. However, there are variations in RF and genetic factors based on ethnic and geographic differences; it is clear that unified molecular pathways accounting for POAG pathogenesis remain uncertain, although inflammation and senescence likely play an important role. There are similar ethnic and geographic complexities in primary angle closure glaucoma (PACG), but several genes have been associated with this disorder, including MMP9, HGF, HSP70, MFRP, and eNOS. In exfoliation glaucoma (XFG), genes implicated include LOXL1, CACNA1A, POMP, TMEM136, AGPAT1, RBMS3, and SEMA6A. Despite tremendous progress, major gaps remain in resolving the genetic architecture for the various glaucoma subtypes across ancestries. Large scale carefully designed studies are required to advance understanding of genetic loci as RF in glaucoma pathophysiology and to improve diagnosis and treatment options.

Update on the genetics of keratoconus

In the past few years we have seen a great acceleration of discoveries in the field of keratoconus including new treatments, diagnostic tools, genomic and molecular determinants of disease risk. Recent genome-wide association studies (GWAS) of keratoconus cases and population wide studies of variation in central corneal thickness and in corneal biomechanical properties confirmed already identified genes and found many new susceptibility variants and biological pathways. Recent findings in genetic determinants of familial keratoconus revealed functionally important variants and established first mouse model of keratoconus. Latest transcriptomic and expression studies started assessing novel non-coding RNA targets in addition to identifying tissue specific effects of coding genes. First genomic insights into better prediction of treatment outcomes are bringing the advent of genomic medicine into keratoconus clinical practice.

"Association of APOE gene polymorphisms with primary open angle glaucoma in Brazilian patients"

Background: Primary open-angle glaucoma (POAG) is a multifactorial disease that affects 65.5 million people worldwide. In addition to the genetic variants already established as indicators of greater risk for POAG, the apolipoprotein (APOE) gene has been studied in some populations, with controversial results. The aim of this study is to investigate the frequency of the genetic variants of APOE in the Brazilian population, and to evaluate the association between these polymorphisms and the risk of POAG. Methods: APOE variants (rs429358; rs7412) were genotyped in 402 POAG patients and 401 controls. We evaluated the association between APOE genetic variants and the risk for POAG, as well as the correlation between the requirement of glaucoma surgery and the APOE polymorphisms. Results: Among the three APOE gene isoforms, we found a low frequency of APOE alleles ε2 (7.34%) and ε4 (11.76%), but a high frequency of ε3 (80.88%) in our population. When compared to ε3ε3 reference genotype, ε2 allele-carriers (OR = 1.516; p-value = 0.04) and ε2ε3 genotype (OR = 1.655; p-value = 0.02) were associated with a greater risk for POAG. An additive genetic model confirmed the influence of the ε2 allele in the risk of POAG in this sample of the Brazilian population (OR = 1.502; p-value = 0.04). There was no significant association between the analyzed genotypes and the requirement or number of glaucoma surgeries (p > .05). Conclusion: Brazilian individuals carrying the APOEε2 allele may be at an increased risk for the development of POAG.

Electronic health records and polygenic risk scores for predicting disease risk

Accurate prediction of disease risk based on the genetic make-up of an individual is essential for effective prevention and personalized treatment. Nevertheless, to date, individual genetic variants from genome-wide association studies have achieved only moderate prediction of disease risk. The aggregation of genetic variants under a polygenic model shows promising improvements in prediction accuracies. Increasingly, electronic health records (EHRs) are being linked to patient genetic data in biobanks, which provides new opportunities for developing and applying polygenic risk scores in the clinic, to systematically examine and evaluate patient susceptibilities to disease. However, the heterogeneous nature of EHR data brings forth many practical challenges along every step of designing and implementing risk prediction strategies. In this Review, we present the unique considerations for using genotype and phenotype data from biobank-linked EHRs for polygenic risk prediction.

Genetic Risk Scores

Genome-wide variation data with millions of genetic markers have become commonplace. However, the potential for interpretation and application of these data for clinical assessment of outcomes of interest, and prediction of disease risk, is currently not fully realized. Many common complex diseases now have numerous, well-established risk loci and likely harbor many genetic determinants with effects too small to be detected at genome-wide levels of statistical significance. A simple and intuitive approach for converting genetic data to a predictive measure of disease susceptibility is to aggregate the effects of these loci into a single measure, the genetic risk score. Here, we describe some common methods and software packages for calculating genetic risk scores and polygenic risk scores, with focus on studies of common complex diseases. We review the basic information needed, as well as important considerations for constructing genetic risk scores, including specific requirements for phenotypic and genetic data, and limitations in their application. © 2019 by John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

Update on the genetics of primary open-angle glaucoma

Affecting nearly 80 million individuals, glaucoma is the number one cause of irreversible blindness in the world. This ocular disease describes a set of optic neuropathies of which primary open angle glaucoma (POAG) is the most common. POAG is associated with progressive visual field deterioration resulting from damage to the optic nerve and loss of retinal ganglion cells. Risk factors for POAG include elevated intraocular pressure, aging, African and Hispanic ancestry, and a positive family history of POAG. Multiple genes have been found to contribute to POAG. Much of POAG genetics and pathology has yet to be explained. Recent genome-wide association studies have identified a large number of novel loci associated with POAG and its endophenotypes. Genomic and proteomic profiling of biofluids has contributed to our knowledge of differential gene expression in POAG. Functional studies both in cell culture and animal models have confirmed the effects of variants and differential gene expression on ocular physiology while in silico analyses have increased our understanding of disease risk and progression so that we might better diagnose and treat this complex genetic illness.

Neuroprotection in Glaucoma: Towards Clinical Trials and Precision Medicine

Purpose: The eye is currently at the forefront of translational medicine and therapeutics. However, despite advances in technology, primary open-angle glaucoma remains the leading cause of irreversible blindness worldwide. Traditional intraocular pressure (IOP)-lowering therapies are often not sufficient to prevent progression to blindness, even in patients with access to high-quality healthcare. Neuroprotection strategies, which aim to boost the ability of target cells to withstand a pathological insult, have shown significant promise in animal models but none have shown clinically relevant efficacy in human clinical trials to date. We sought to evaluate the current status of neuroprotection clinical trials for glaucoma and identify limitations which have prevented translation of new glaucoma therapies to date.Methods: Literature searches identified English language references. Sources included MEDLINE, EMBASE, the Cochrane Library and Web of Science databases; reference lists of retrieved studies; and internet pages of relevant organisations, meetings and conference proceedings, and clinical trial registries.Results: We discuss six key neuroprotective strategies for glaucoma that have reached the clinical trial stage. Delivery of neurotrophic factors through gene therapy is also progressing towards glaucoma clinical trials. Refinements in trial design and the use of new modalities to define structural and functional endpoints may improve our assessment of disease activity and treatment efficacy. Advances in our understanding of compartmentalised glaucomatous degeneration and continued progress in the molecular profiling of glaucoma patients will enable us to predict individual risk and tailor treatment.Conclusion: New approaches to future glaucoma neuroprotection trials could improve the prospects for new glaucoma therapies. Glaucoma treatment tailored according to an individual's unique risk profile may become increasingly common in the future.