Identifying Work Capacity and Promoting Work: A Strategy for Modernizing the SSDI Program

Independent and joint contributions of physical disability and chronic pain to incident opioid use disorder and opioid overdose among Medicaid patients

BACKGROUND

Chronic pain has been extensively explored as a risk factor for opioid misuse, resulting in increased focus on opioid prescribing practices for individuals with such conditions. Physical disability sometimes co-occurs with chronic pain but may also represent an independent risk factor for opioid misuse. However, previous research has not disentangled whether disability contributes to risk independent of chronic pain.

METHODS

Here, we estimate the independent and joint adjusted associations between having a physical disability and co-occurring chronic pain condition at time of Medicaid enrollment on subsequent 18-month risk of incident opioid use disorder (OUD) and non-fatal, unintentional opioid overdose among non-elderly, adult Medicaid beneficiaries (2016-2019).

RESULTS

We find robust evidence that having a physical disability approximately doubles the risk of incident OUD or opioid overdose, and physical disability co-occurring with chronic pain increases the risks approximately sixfold as compared to having neither chronic pain nor disability. In absolute numbers, those with neither a physical disability nor chronic pain condition have a 1.8% adjusted risk of incident OUD over 18 months of follow-up, those with physical disability alone have an 2.9% incident risk, those with chronic pain alone have a 3.6% incident risk, and those with co-occurring physical disability and chronic pain have a 11.1% incident risk.

CONCLUSIONS

These findings suggest that those with a physical disability should receive increased attention from the medical and healthcare communities to reduce their risk of opioid misuse and attendant negative outcomes.

Has the opening of Amazon fulfillment centers affected demand for disability insurance?

An estimated 17.6% of blue-collar, manufacturing jobs were lost in the United States between 1970 and 2016. These jobs, often union-represented, provided relatively generous pay and benefits, creating a path to the middle class for individuals without a four-year college degree. Evidence suggests the closure of manufacturing facilities and resulting decline in economic opportunity increased demand for disability insurance (SSDI) among blue-collar workers. In recent years, the opening of Amazon Fulfillment Centers (FCs) has accelerated around the country, driving a wave of blue-collar job creation. We estimated the extent to which the opening of FCs affected SSDI application rates, including rates of approvals and denials, using a synthetic control group approach. We found that FC openings were associated with a 1.4% reduction in the SSDI application rate over the subsequent three years, translating to 5,528 fewer applications per year across commuting zones with an FC opening. Our findings are consistent with FC openings improving economic opportunities in local labor markets, though our confidence intervals were wide and included the null.

Pain, Physical Demands at Work, and Future Work Expectations Among Older Adults in the United States

Background and Objectives

In the United States, pain is becoming increasingly prevalent among older adults at the same time as policies are incentivizing work longer. Given that pain and physically demanding jobs are both linked to early retirement and they often go hand-in-hand, it is important to assess how the unique effects of pain and physical work demands may interact in predicting future work expectations.

Research Design and Methods

Using Health and Retirement Study data (1998, 2004, 2010, and 2016 waves), we assess how pain and physical job demands influence future work expectations of 10,358 adults at midlife (ages 51-56), after accounting for sociodemographic, job, health, and financial characteristics.

Results

Compared to men with no pain, activity-interfering pain was associated with low expectations of full-time work past 62 regardless of job demands, while noninterfering pain was associated with 62% higher odds (odds ratio [OR] = 1.62, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.35-1.93) of expecting not to work full-time past age 62 only among those with physically demanding jobs. Having both interfering pain and a physically demanding job was associated with increased odds of expecting not to work full-time past age 65 for men (OR = 1.25, 95% CI: 1.06-1.47) and past age 62 for women (OR = 1.18, 95% CI: 1.00-1.39).

Discussion and Implications

The co-occurrence of physically demanding work with pain-particularly activity-interfering pain-is associated with low expectations of full-time work past ages 62 and 65 for adults at midlife. Working longer may be feasible for older adults whose pain does not interfere with work, but unrealistic for individuals facing both pain and physically demanding work.

Do disability benefits hinder work resumption after recovery?

While a large share of Disability Insurance recipients in OECD countries are expected to recover, outflow rates from temporary disability schemes are typically negligible. We estimate the disincentive effects of disability benefits on the response to a (mental) health improvement using administrative data on all Dutch disability benefit applicants. We compare those below the DI eligibility threshold with those above and find that disincentives significantly reduce work resumption after health improves. Approximately half of the response to recovery is offset by benefits. Estimates from a structural labor supply model suggest that disincentives are substantially larger when the worker's earnings capacity is fully restored.

The effect of awarding disability benefits on opioid consumption

Strong empirical evidence points towards a significantly higher prevalence of opioid consumption among people receiving disability benefits (DB) than in the general population of the United States. However, no previous research established a causal relationship between the decision to award DB to applicants and their subsequent opioid use. We aim to contribute towards filling this gap. There are channels through which awarding DB may both increase and depress opioid consumption, and thus, ex ante, the sign of a potential causal relationship is ambiguous. To correct for the treatment endogeneity, since an individual's age at the time of the decision on an application impacts discontinuously at certain age cutoffs the award decision, we employ a fuzzy Regression Discontinuity model with three age cutoffs used for identification. We find that awarding DB increases the likelihood of using opioids by about 27-30 percentage points. This suggests that the positive association between DB receipt and opioid consumption is likely to be causal.

COVID-19 and the US Safety Net

We examine trends in employment, earnings and incomes over the last two decades in the United States, and how the safety net has responded to changing fortunes, including the shutdown of the economy in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. The US safety net is a patchwork of different programmes providing in-kind as well as cash benefits, and it had many holes prior to the pandemic. In addition, few of the programmes are designed explicitly as automatic stabilisers. We show that the safety net response to employment losses in the COVID-19 pandemic largely consists only of increased support from unemployment insurance and food assistance programmes, an inadequate response compared with the magnitude of the downturn. We discuss options to reform social assistance in the United States to provide more robust income floors in times of economic downturns.