Ideals as Anchors for Relationship Experiences

Demography as a Field: Where We Came From and Where We Are Headed

This essay provides a series of reflections on the current state of demography as seen by four early-career researchers who are actively engaged in aspects of the discipline as varied as research, teaching, mentorship, data collection efforts, policy making, and policy advising. Despite some claims that the discipline is weakening, we showcase the great potential of the field and outline promising pathways and novel directions for the future. In so doing, we critically assess recent innovations in data quality and availability, stressing the need to "revolutionize" the way that demographic methods are taught by adopting a viewpoint that more closely reflects the rapidly changing, or "fast," nature of global social phenomena such as conflict-related displacements, environmental disasters, migration streams, pandemics, and evolving population policies. We conclude by discussing the relevance of careful demographic analyses for policy making, stressing three main points: (i) the need to make demography more visible and understandable to the public eye; (ii) the importance of engaging and co-creating with local communities to "break" the academic bubble; and (iii) the urge to counteract the spread of misinformation-a phenomenon that has become even more visible in the aftermath of the COVID-19 outbreak.

Knowledge Discovery: Methods from data mining and machine learning

The interdisciplinary field of knowledge discovery and data mining emerged from a necessity of big data requiring new analytical methods beyond the traditional statistical approaches to discover new knowledge from the data mine. This emergent approach is a dialectic research process that is both deductive and inductive. The data mining approach automatically or semi-automatically considers a larger number of joint, interactive, and independent predictors to address causal heterogeneity and improve prediction. Instead of challenging the conventional model-building approach, it plays an important complementary role in improving model goodness of fit, revealing valid and significant hidden patterns in data, identifying nonlinear and non-additive effects, providing insights into data developments, methods, and theory, and enriching scientific discovery. Machine learning builds models and algorithms by learning and improving from data when the explicit model structure is unclear and algorithms with good performance are difficult to attain. The most recent development is to incorporate this new paradigm of predictive modeling with the classical approach of parameter estimation regressions to produce improved models that combine explanation and prediction.

Researcher reasoning meets computational capacity: Machine learning for social science

Computational power and big data have created new opportunities to explore and understand the social world. A special synergy is possible when social scientists combine human attention to certain aspects of the problem with the power of algorithms to automate other aspects of the problem. We review selected exemplary applications where machine learning amplifies researcher coding, summarizes complex data, relaxes statistical assumptions, and targets researcher attention to further social science research. We aim to reduce perceived barriers to machine learning by summarizing several fundamental building blocks and their grounding in classical statistics. We present a few guiding principles and promising approaches where we see particular potential for machine learning to transform social science inquiry. We conclude that machine learning tools are increasingly accessible, worthy of attention, and ready to yield new discoveries for social research.

A Sequence-Analysis Approach to the Study of the Transition to Adulthood in Low- and Middle-Income Countries

This study investigates whether young people in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) have experienced processes of destandardization of the life course similar to those observed in high-income societies. We provide two contributions to the relevant literature. First, we use data from 263 Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) across 69 LMICs, offering the richest comparative account to date of women's transition to adulthood (TTA) patterns in the developing world. In so doing, we adopt sequence analysis and shift the focus from individual life-course events-namely first sexual intercourse, first union, and first birth-to a visually appealing approach that allows us to describe interrelations among events. By focusing on the analysis of trajectories rather than the occurrence of single events, the study provides an in-depth focus on the timing of events, time intervals between events, and how experiencing (or not) one event might have consequences for subsequent markers in the TTA in cross-national comparative perspective. Second, we identify clusters of TTA and explore their changes across cohorts by region and household location of residence (rural vs. urban). We document significant differences by macro-regions, yet relative stability across cohorts. We interpret the latter as suggestive of cultural specificities that make the TTA resistant to change and slow to converge across regions, if converging at all. Also, we find that much of the difference across cluster typologies ensues from variation related to when the transition begins (early vs. late), rather than from the duration between events, which tends to be uniformly quick across three out of four clusters.

Norms and sexual relations among adolescents in the context of an intervention trial in rural Zambia

High levels of adolescent pregnancy and child marriage rates in low- and middle-income countries is an issue of concern to many stakeholders, including in Zambia where almost one-third of women give birth before age 18. The aim of this paper is to explore and analyse social norms concerning adolescents' sexual behaviour within the context of an intervention trial in rural communities in southern Zambia. It is based on a qualitative study applying individual interviews, focus group discussions and participatory research methods. We apply the distinction between injunctive and descriptive norms to demonstrate that adolescent girls are caught between conflicting norms. Injunctive norms express that premarital sex, contraceptive use, and discussions about sex between adults and youths are socially condemned. At the same time poor girls are reported to feel pressure towards having sexual relations for the economic benefits such relations can bring, and this practice is considered so common that it amounts to a descriptive norm. Norms and structural conditions combine to create a disabling and disempowering environment for adolescent sexual and reproductive health, which limits girls' agency and exposes them to unwanted pregnancies.

Attitudes Toward Intimate Partner Violence in Dyadic Perspective: Evidence From Sub-Saharan Africa

Although intimate partner violence (IPV) is inherently a relational event shaped by couple-level factors, most empirical examinations of IPV-related attitudes have used individuals as the unit of analysis. We apply a dyadic perspective to the study of attitudes about the acceptability of IPV, harnessing couple-level data from 33 countries in sub-Saharan Africa, a region characterized by particularly high levels of both the incidence and acceptance of IPV. We document considerable geographic heterogeneity in the distribution of attitudinal concordance or discordance regarding the acceptability of IPV within couples, a descriptive finding that is overlooked by studies focused on individuals as the unit of analysis. In addition, applying a dyadic perspective to the correlates of attitudinal concordance, we demonstrate that joint exposure to schooling, work, and media is more predictive of joint rejection of IPV than are singular exposures of wives or husbands. Finally, we show that distinct combinations of attitudes within couples are associated with differential likelihoods of wives reporting having recently experienced emotional, physical, or sexual IPV. In particular, when both partners reject IPV, wives are significantly less likely to report experiencing each type of IPV in the past year compared with any other combination of attitudes. Our results reveal that a dyadic perspective provides a comprehensive understanding of intracouple contexts that enhances our perspective on these important demographic outcomes.

Intramarital Status Differences across Africa's Educational Expansion

OBJECTIVE

This paper documents how intra-marital differences in educational status vary across Africa's heterogeneous educational expansion, which has encompassed an enormous breadth of educational opportunities over the past 50 years.

BACKGROUND

Educational expansion influences intra-marital status differences both by altering the educational composition of men and women and by reconfiguring the social conventions associated with a given educational context. Status differentials between marital partners can influence spousal wellbeing and, in the aggregate, determine the extent to which marriage provides a pathway to upward social mobility.

METHOD

Using Demographic and Health Survey data representing 32 sub-Saharan African countries and 5 decades of birth cohorts, the paper examines the prevalence and propensity of educational pairings as a function of educational access (the percentage of a cohort who ever attended school) and wife's education level.

RESULTS

Educational expansion created gendered changes in educational compositions of married individuals, which led to increased prevalence of hypergamy (wives who married "up") in most countries. Educational expansion has also led hypogamous marriages to become less of a social aberration: in lower-education contexts (but less so in higher-education contexts), conventions lead women to "marry down" at far lower rates than would be expected based on the sex-specific compositions of husbands and wives.

CONCLUSION

Educational attainment remains a central determinant of social positioning in African society. However, as schooling expands across the continent, social conventions regarding educational status are playing a weakening role in determining who marries whom.

Navigating intimate sexual partnerships in an era of HIV: dimensions of couple relationship quality and satisfaction among adults in Eswatini and linkages to HIV risk

Couple relationship functioning impacts individual health and well-being, including HIV risk, but scant research has focused on emic understandings of relationship quality in African populations. We explored relationship quality and satisfaction in Eswatini (formerly Swaziland) using data from 148 in-depth interviews (117 life-course interviews with 28 adults and 31 interviews with 29 marriage counselors and their clients) and 4 focus group discussions. Love, respect, honesty, trust, communication, sexual satisfaction, and sexual faithfulness emerged as the most salient characteristics of good relationships, with both men and women emphasising love and respect as being most important. Participants desired relationships characterised by such qualities but reported relationship threats in the areas of trust, honesty, and sexual faithfulness. The dimensions of relationship quality identified by this study are consistent with research from other contexts, suggesting cross-cultural similarities in conceptions of a good relationship. Some relationship constructs, particularly respect, may be more salient in a Swazi context.

Displacement contexts and violent landscapes: How conflict and displacement structure women's lives and ongoing threats at the Thai-Myanmar border

Chronic conflict and displacement carry consequences for personal and social violence. How is violence embedded in displacement-related histories and ongoing circumstances? How might it underlie social and health inequities in host countries? For addressing these questions, I offer a new approach to conceptualizing and measuring displacement contexts and the structural violence embedded therein. I present the empirical case of the Thai-Myanmar border. Myanmar's civil conflict has fueled one of the largest and most chronically displaced populations globally. Thailand's border population has consequently grown with people displaced from the varied conflict-related circumstances within Myanmar. I administered a novel survey in two sub-districts along Thailand's northern border with Myanmar in 2016-17. With data from 520 respondents, I used clustering of life events and circumstances to uncover displacement-related contexts and violence. I uncovered livelihood- and security-based threat contexts, which disproportionately affected ethnic minority women. Among women from Myanmar, past military occupation and acute violence co-occurred with unexpectedly low perceived past oppression-indicative of covert everyday violence. In contrast, women who fled home destruction or deprivation, but often less overt military violence, were more likely to perceive oppression. Women born in Myanmar also experienced acute potential violence at the border, including severe livelihood and security threats. These threats were most prevalent among women that experienced the most forceful and abrupt displacement. This study uses a person-centered perspective to characterize and measure violence embedded in displacement, including the structural violence against women that is perpetuated across displacement contexts and embodied over time.

Stressor landscapes, birth weight, and prematurity at the intersection of race and income: Elucidating birth contexts through patterned life events

Women of color and women in poverty experience disproportionately high rates of adverse birth outcomes in the United States (US). We use an intersectionality-based approach to examine how maternal life events (LE's) preceding childbirth are patterned and shape birth outcomes at the intersection of race and income. Using population data from the Pregnancy Risk Assessment Monitoring System we uncover common maternal LE clusters preceding births in 2011-2015, offering a description and measurement of what we call "stressor landscapes" that go beyond standard measures by frequency or type alone. Three landscapes emerge: (1) Protected, characterized by very few LE's; (2) Illness/Isolated, with very few LE's and most commonly involving an illness or death of someone close; and (3) Toxic/Cumulative, comprising more frequent and acute LE's. Mothers in the toxic landscape experience on average 107-g lighter birth weights and a 27%, 49%, and 57% greater risk of PTB, LBW, and VLBW, respectively, compared to in the protected landscape. Low-income and non-Hispanic black (NHB), Hispanic, American Indian (AI), and Alaska Native (AN) mothers are among the groups disproportionately exposed to toxic stressor landscapes. The association between landscape and birth outcomes additionally varies by race and income. Among non-Hispanic white mothers, toxic landscapes are linked to poor birth outcomes at lower incomes. Among NHB mothers, illness-related stressors are additionally linked to worse outcomes and stressor landscapes disproportionately harm middle-income mothers. Toxic stressors may contribute to worse outcomes among middle- and high-income Hispanic and AI/AN mothers, but these patterns are less clear. Our study offers a new approach to measuring LE's that match common conceptions of exposure clustering and applies it to US population data to reveal LE patterns underlying persistent social disparities in maternal and child health.

Well-Being and Romantic Relationships: A Systematic Review in Adolescence and Emerging Adulthood

Adolescence and emerging adulthood are both stages in which romantic relationships play a key role in development and can be a source of both well-being and negative outcomes. However, the limited number of studies prior to adulthood, along with the multiplicity of variables involved in the romantic context and the considerable ambiguity surrounding the construct of well-being, make it difficult to reach conclusions about the relationship between the two phenomena. This systematic review synthesizes the results produced into this topic over the last three decades. A total of 112 studies were included, following the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis Protocols (PRISMA-P) guidelines. On the one hand, these works revealed the terminological heterogeneity in research on well-being and the way the absence of symptoms of illness are commonly used to measure it, while on the other hand, they also showed that romantic relationships can be an important source of well-being for both adolescents and emerging adults. The findings underline the importance of providing a better definition of well-being, as well as to attribute greater value to the significance of romantic relationships. Devoting greater empirical, educational, and community efforts to romantic development in the stages leading up to adulthood are considered necessary actions in promoting the well-being of young people.

Tsogolo la Thanzi: A Longitudinal Study of Young Adults Living in Malawi's HIV Epidemic

Tsogolo la Thanzi (TLT) was designed to study how young adults navigate sexual relationships and childbearing during a generalized HIV epidemic. TLT began in 2009 with a population-representative sample of 1,505 women and 574 men between the ages of 15 and 25 living in Balaka, southern Malawi, where regional adult HIV prevalence then stood at 15 percent. The first phase (2009-11) included a series of eight interviews, spaced four months apart. During this time, women's romantic and sexual partners enrolled in the study on an ongoing basis. A refresher sample of 315 women was added in 2012. Seventy-eight percent of respondents were re-interviewed in the second phase of TLT (2015), which consisted of follow-up interviews approximately 3.5 years after the previous interview (ages 21-31). At each wave, detailed information about fertility intentions and behaviors, relationships, sexual behavior, health, and a range of sociodemographic and economic traits was gathered by means of face-to-face surveys. Biomarkers for HIV and pregnancy were also collected. Distinguishing features include: a population-representative sample, closely spaced data collection, dyadic data on couples over time, and an experimental approach to HIV testing and counseling. Data are available through restricted data-user agreements managed by Data Sharing for Demographic Research (DSDR) at the University of Michigan.

Awareness and perceived fairness of Option B+ in Malawi: A population-level perspective

Introduction: Policies for rationing antiretroviral therapy (ART) have been subject to on-going ethical debates. Introduced in Malawi in 2011, Option B+ prioritized HIV-positive pregnant women for lifelong ART regardless of the underlying state of their immune system, shifting the logic of allocation away from medical eligibility. Despite the rapid expansion of this policy, we know little about how it has been understood and interpreted by the people it affects.

Methods: We assessed awareness and perceived fairness of the prioritization system for ART among a population-based sample of young women (n = 1440) and their partners (n = 574) in southern Malawi. We use a card-sort technique to elicit understandings of who gets ART under Option B+ and who should be prioritized, and we compare perceptions to actual ART policy using sequence analysis and optimal matching. We then use ordered logistic regression to identify the factors associated with policy awareness.

Results: In 2015, only 30.7% of women and 21.1% of male partners understood how ART was being distributed. There was widespread confusion around whether otherwise healthy HIV-positive pregnant women could access ART under Option B + . Nonetheless, more young adults thought that the fairest policy should prioritize such women than believed the actual policy did. Women who were older, more educated or had recently engaged with the health system through antenatal care or ART had more accurate understandings of Option B + . Among men, policy awareness was lower, and was patterned only by education.

Conclusions: Although most respondents were unaware that Option B+ afforded ART access to healthy-pregnant women, Malawians support the prioritization of pregnant women. Countries adopting Option B+ or other new ART policies such as universal test-and-treat should communicate the policies and their rationales to the public – such transparency would be more consistent with a fair and ethical process and could additionally serve to clarify confusion and enhance retention.​​

Physical attractiveness and women's HIV risk in rural Malawi

BACKGROUND

Qualitative evidence from sub-Saharan Africa, where a generalized AIDS epidemic exists, suggests that attractiveness may play a role in shaping individual-level HIV risk. Attractive women, who are often blamed for the epidemic and stigmatized, are believed to pose a higher HIV risk because they are viewed as having more and riskier partners.

OBJECTIVE

We examine the association between perceived attractiveness and HIV infection and risk in rural Malawi in the midst of the country's severe AIDS epidemic.

METHODS

We use interviewers' ratings of respondents' attractiveness, along with HIV test results and women's assessments of their own likelihood of infection, to estimate the association between perceived attractiveness and HIV infection and risk for a random sample of 961 women aged 15-35.

RESULTS

Results show that women who are rated by interviewers as 'much less' or 'less' attractive than other women their age are 9% more likely to test positive for HIV. We also find that attractiveness is associated with women's own assessments of their HIV risk: Among women who tested negative, those perceived as 'much less' or 'less' attractive than average report themselves to be at greater risk of HIV infection.

CONCLUSIONS

These results suggest that attractiveness is negatively associated with HIV risk in Malawi, countering local beliefs that hold attractive women responsible for perpetuating the epidemic.

CONTRIBUTION

This study highlights the need to consider perceived physical attractiveness, and sexual desirability more broadly, as an under-examined axis of inequality in HIV risk in high-prevalence settings.

Cultural Meanings and the Aggregation of Actions: The Case of Sex and Schooling in Malawi

How can cultural understandings simultaneously diverge from and contribute to aggregate patterns of action? On one hand, shared cognitive associations guide people’s everyday actions, and these actions comprise the behavioral trends that sociologists seek to measure and understand. On the other hand, these shared understandings often contradict behavioral trends. I address this theoretical puzzle by considering the empirical case of sexual relationships and school dropout in Malawi. Moving recursively between longitudinal survey data and in-depth interviews, I compare statistical patterns and cultural beliefs about the relationship between sexual relationships and school dropout. Interviewees emphasized ways that relationships render girls incapable of continuing in school, whereas survey data provide limited support for these posited causal processes. However, these shared beliefs about the detrimental effects of relationships for school performance have real effects: teachers, parents, and students act as if these narratives were true, and these behavioral responses sustain the broader antinomy between sex and schooling. This analysis reveals new insights into how cultural understandings—and the various ways people respond to and enforce them—contribute to the demographic patterns we observe using survey data.

You can't always get what you want: Network determinants of relationship inactualization in adolescence

Despite widespread interest in the link between social and sexual networks, little research has focused on how social networks influence the progression of intimate relationships (e.g., from holding hands to sexual intercourse). I argue that social networks not only affect individuals' opportunities to meet romantic partners, but also shape the ideal and actual progressions of intimate acts within their relationships. Using data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Adolescent to Adult Health (Add Health), I conduct an optimal matching analysis of adolescents' purported ideal versus actual relationship sequences, which are comprised of romantic and sexual events. Low discrepancy scores indicate that intimate acts in one's recent relationship were sequenced much as one had desired. Results demonstrate that how students are situated within their schools' broader friendship networks affects their experiences with intimacy: high rank prestige individuals are better able to achieve their ideal relationships, as are individuals with densely knit friendship networks. Additionally, increased gender salience among boys within the socio-centric friendship network is associated with increased discord between desired and actual relationship progressions, but this relationship is mediated by the rareness of the individual's ideal relationship trajectory.