Situational and Victim Correlates of Increased Case Fatality Rates in Los Angeles Shootings, 2005-2021

The gun assault case fatality rate measures the fraction of shooting victims who die from their wounds. Considerable debate has surrounded whether gun assault case fatality rates have changed over time and what factors may be involved. We use crime event data from Los Angeles to examine the victim and situational correlates of gun assault case fatality rates over time. We estimated log binomial regression models for the probability of death in each year from 2005 to 2021, conditioned on situational and victim characteristics of the crime. Case fatality rates increased by around 1.3% per year between 2005 and 2021 from around 15.9 to 19.7%. Baseline case fatality rates differed systematically by most situational and victim but followed similar temporal trends. Only victim age significantly covaried with the temporal trend in case fatality rates. An individual shot in Los Angeles in 2021 was 23.7% more likely to die than the equivalent victim in 2005. The steady increase in case fatality rates suggests that there were around 394 excess fatalities over what would have occurred if case fatality rates remained at the 2005 level. Increases in the average age of victims over time may contribute to the general temporal trend. We hypothesize that older victims are more likely to be shot indoors where lethal close-range wounds are more likely.

Linking out-of-hospital deaths with a regional hospital-based firearm injury database: a clinical researcher's guide to accessing data from the National Death Index

IntroductionFirearm injuries are a public health crisis in the US. The National Death Index (NDI) is a well-established, comprehensive database managed by the National Center for Health Statistics at the CDC. In this methodology paper we describe our experience accessing and linking data from the NDI to our regional, hospital-based violent injury database to identify out-of-hospital deaths from firearms.

METHODS

We outline the key steps of our submission to the NDI. Data were collected from research team meeting notes, team member emails with NDI staff, and information provided from the NDI website and supplementary guides. Few of our collaborators or university partner investigators had accessed or used data from the NDI. We discuss the online NDI Processing Portal data request, data preparation and receipt from the NDI, troubleshooting tips, and a timeline of events.

RESULTS

Our query to the NDI returned 12 034 records of 12 219 firearm-injured patient records from 2010 and 2019. The record match rate was 98.5%.

DISCUSSION

Linking hospital-based data sets with NDI data can provide valuable information on out-of-hospital deaths. This has the potential to improve the quality of longitudinal morbidity and mortality calculations in hospital-based patient cohorts. We encountered logistic and administrative challenges in completing the online NDI Processing Portal and in preparing and receiving data from the NDI. It is our hope that the lessons learnt presented herein will help facilitate easy and streamlined acquisition of valuable NDI data for other clinical researchers.

WHAT THIS STUDY ADDS

- A step-by-step guide for clinical researchers of how to apply to access data from the National Death Index (NDI).- Advice and lessons learned on how to efficiently and effectively access data from the NDI.- A well-described methodology to improve the quality of longitudinal morbdity and mortality calculations in hospital-based cohorts of firearm injured patients.What is already known on this subject:- There is a need for robust, longitudinal data sources that reliably track morbidity and mortality among firearm injured patients in the United States.- The NDI is a well-established, comprehensive database that holds death records for all 50 states, which provides valuable mortality data to the public health and medical research community.

Comparison of cost and resource utilization between firearm injuries and motor vehicle collisions at pediatric hospitals

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES

Firearm injuries are converging with motor vehicle collisions (MVC) as the number one cause of death for children in the United States. Thus we examine differences in hospital cost and hospital resource utilization between motor vehicle and firearm injury.

METHODS

This retrospective, cross-sectional study compares hospital costs and resource utilization of motor vehicle and firearm-injured children aged 0 to 19 years of age over a 5-year time frame (January 1, 2013-December 31, 2017) in 35 freestanding children's hospitals that submitted data to the Pediatric Health Information System. The primary outcome was hospital-adjusted comparative cost per patient presentation. Generalized linear mixed models were used to quantify the relationship between the type of injury and each outcome, adjusting for patient characteristics and hospital.

RESULTS

There were 89,133 emergency department (ED) visits attributed to MVCs and 3,235 for firearm injury. Of the youths who presented for firearm injury, 49% were hospitalized versus 14% of youths presenting with MVC (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] = 6.6, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 6.1 to 7.2). Youths with firearm injury were more likely to be admitted to an intensive care unit (aOR = 6.7, 95% CI = 5.9 to 7.7) and had longer lengths of stays (aOR = 2.2, 95% CI = 1.9 to 2.6) compared to their MVC counterparts. Children admitted for firearm injury had more imaging and ED return visits, along with subsequent inpatient admission within 3 days (aOR = 3.4, 95% CI = 2.1 to 5.5) and 1 year (aOR = 2.5, 95% CI = 2.1 to 2.9). The mean relative per-patient costs were nearly fivefold higher for the firearm-injured group.

CONCLUSIONS

Hospital costs and markers of resource utilization were higher for youths with firearm injury compared to MVC. High medical resource utilization is one of several important reasons to advocate for a comparable national focus and funding on firearm-related injury prevention.