Epidemiology of multiple sclerosis in Glasgow

FutureMS cohort profile: a Scottish multicentre inception cohort study of relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis

PURPOSE

Multiple sclerosis (MS) is an immune-mediated, neuroinflammatory disease of the central nervous system and in industrialised countries is the most common cause of progressive neurological disability in working age persons. While treatable, there is substantial interindividual heterogeneity in disease activity and response to treatment. Currently, the ability to predict at diagnosis who will have a benign, intermediate or aggressive disease course is very limited. There is, therefore, a need for integrated predictive tools to inform individualised treatment decision making.

PARTICIPANTS

Established with the aim of addressing this need for individualised predictive tools, FutureMS is a nationally representative, prospective observational cohort study of 440 adults with a new diagnosis of relapsing-remitting MS living in Scotland at the time of diagnosis between May 2016 and March 2019.

FINDINGS TO DATE

The study aims to explore the pathobiology and determinants of disease heterogeneity in MS and combines detailed clinical phenotyping with imaging, genetic and biomarker metrics of disease activity and progression. Recruitment, baseline assessment and follow-up at year 1 is complete. Here, we describe the cohort design and present a profile of the participants at baseline and 1 year of follow-up.

FUTURE PLANS

A third follow-up wave for the cohort has recently begun at 5 years after first visit and a further wave of follow-up is funded for year 10. Longer-term follow-up is anticipated thereafter.

Gene-Environment Interactions in Multiple Sclerosis: A UK Biobank Study

Objective

We sought to determine whether genetic risk modifies the effect of environmental risk factors for multiple sclerosis (MS). To test this hypothesis, we tested for statistical interaction between polygenic risk scores (PRS) capturing genetic susceptibility to MS and environmental risk factors for MS in UK Biobank.

Methods

People with MS were identified within UK Biobank using ICD-10–coded MS or self-report. Associations between environmental risk factors and MS risk were quantified with a case-control design using multivariable logistic regression. PRS were derived using the clumping-and-thresholding approach with external weights from the largest genome-wide association study of MS. Separate scores were created including major histocompatibility complex (MHC) (PRS_MHC) and excluding (PRS_non-MHC) the MHC locus. The best-performing PRS were identified in 30% of the cohort and validated in the remaining 70%. Interaction between environmental and genetic risk factors was quantified using the attributable proportion due to interaction (AP) and multiplicative interaction.

Results

Data were available for 2,250 people with MS and 486,000 controls. Childhood obesity, earlier age at menarche, and smoking were associated with MS. The optimal PRS were strongly associated with MS in the validation cohort (PRS_MHC: Nagelkerke's pseudo-R² 0.033, p = 3.92 × 10⁻¹¹¹; PRS_non-MHC: Nagelkerke's pseudo-R² 0.013, p = 3.73 × 10⁻⁴³). There was strong evidence of interaction between polygenic risk for MS and childhood obesity (PRS_MHC: AP = 0.17, 95% CI 0.06–0.25, p = 0.004; PRS_non-MHC: AP = 0.17, 95% CI 0.06–0.27, p = 0.006).

Conclusions

This study provides novel evidence for an interaction between childhood obesity and a high burden of autosomal genetic risk. These findings may have significant implications for our understanding of MS biology and inform targeted prevention strategies.

The epidemiology of multiple sclerosis in the Scottish Highlands: Prevalence, incidence and time to confirmed diagnosis and treatment initiation

INTRODUCTION

Although multiple sclerosis (MS) is frequent in the northern hemisphere, there have not been recent epidemiological studies in the Scottish Highlands about MS.

OBJECTIVES

To get updated data regarding MS prevalence, incidence and mortality in the Highlands. Time between symptom onset and MS diagnosis was also evaluated in incident MS cases and the pattern of use of disease-modifying therapies (DMTs) was analysed.

METHODS

Study population was people with MS under the care of the Highland Health and Social Care Partnership. The catchment area included North area (Wick, Thurso, Brora, Invergordon), Center (Inverness, Aviemore, Nairn, Fort William), and West coast (Ullapool, Skye). Data were obtained from the MS database at Raigmore hospital (prevalence, midyear 2017) and the prospective hospital-register based study (diagnosis) that was carried out over a 12-month period, in 2016. The 2010 McDonald criteria for diagnosis of new MS cases were used. Crude prevalence and incidence and 95% confidence interval (CI) were calculated for the MS adult onset population, and data was standardised to the European standard population 2013; cause-specific mortality rate was analysed. Pattern of use of DMTs during the first year of diagnosis was also registered.

RESULTS

745 patients were registered in the MS database. 75.4% (562 cases) were females, and female/male ratio was 3:1. Mean age of population was 54.1 ± 14.1 years (range: 15-95 years). Mean number of years since diagnosis was 8.5 ± 4.6 years. Estimated prevalence for the population aged 15 and older was 376 cases per 100,000 inhabitants (95% CI: 354-399). 36 incident MS cases were registered in 2016 (88.8% females; mean age 40.4 ± 12.1 years). Annual incidence in Highlands was 18.2 per 100,000 inhabitants (95% CI: 14-24). The mean period of time from symptom onset to diagnosis was 38.8 ± 43.2 months. 47.2% (17/36) did not take any DMT during the first year after the diagnosis.

CONCLUSION

Prevalence and incidence of MS in the Scottish Highlands is high. Although the gap period between symptom onset and diagnosis is moderate, a significant proportion of recently diagnosed MS patients were not keen to start a DMT the first year after the diagnosis.

Reproductive history and progressive multiple sclerosis risk in women

Being a woman is one of the strongest risk factors for multiple sclerosis. The natural reproductive period from menarche to natural menopause corresponds to the active inflammatory disease period in multiple sclerosis. The fifth decade marks both the peri-menopausal transition in the reproductive aging and a transition from the relapsing-remitting to the progressive phase in multiple sclerosis. A short reproductive period with premature/early menopause and/or low number of pregnancies may be associated with an earlier onset of the progressive multiple sclerosis phase. A cross-sectional study of survey-based reproductive history in a multiple sclerosis clinical series enriched for patients with progressive disease, and a case–control study of multiple sclerosis and age/sex matched controls from a population-based cohort were conducted. Menarche age, number of complete/incomplete pregnancies, menopause type and menopause age were compared between 137 cases and 396 control females. Onset of relapsing-remitting phase of multiple sclerosis, progressive disease onset and reaching severe disability (expanded disability status scale 6) were studied as multiple sclerosis-related outcomes (n = 233). Menarche age was similar between multiple sclerosis and control females (P = 0.306). Females with multiple sclerosis had fewer full-term pregnancies than the controls (P < 0.001). Non-natural menopause was more common in multiple sclerosis (40.7%) than in controls (30.1%) (P = 0.030). Age at natural menopause was similar between multiple sclerosis (median, interquartile range: 50 years, 48–52) and controls (median, interquartile range: 51 years, 49–53) (P = 0.476). Nulliparous females had earlier age at progressive multiple sclerosis onset (mean ± standard deviation: 41.9 ± 12.5 years) than females with ≥1 full-term pregnancies (mean ± standard deviation: 47.1 ± 9.7 years) (P = 0.069) with a pregnancy-dose effect [para 0 (mean ± standard deviation: 41.9 ± 12.5 years), para 1–3 (mean ± standard deviation: 46.4 ± 9.2 years), para ≥4 (mean ± standard deviation: 52.6 ± 12.9 years) (P = 0.005)]. Menopause age was associated with progressive multiple sclerosis onset age (R² = 0.359, P < 0.001). Duration from onset of relapses to onset of progressive multiple sclerosis was shorter for females with premature/early menopause (n = 26; mean ± standard deviation: 12.9 ± 9.0 years) than for females with normal menopause age (n = 39; mean ± standard deviation: 17.8 ± 10.3 years) but was longer than for males (mean  ±standard deviation: 10.0 ± 9.4 years) (P = 0.005). There was a pregnancy-dose effect of age at expanded disability status scale 6 (para 0: 43.0 ± 13.2 years, para 1–3: 51.7 ± 11.3 years, para ≥4: 53.5 ± 4.9 years) (P = 0.013). Age at menopause was associated with age at expanded disability status scale 6 (R² = 0.229, P < 0.003). Premature/early menopause or nulliparity was associated with earlier onset of progressive multiple sclerosis with a ‘dose effect’ of pregnancies on delaying progressive multiple sclerosis and severe disability. Although causality remains uncertain, our results suggest a beneficial impact of oestrogen in delaying progressive multiple sclerosis. If confirmed in prospective studies, our findings have implications for counselling women with multiple sclerosis about pregnancy, surgical menopause and menopausal hormone therapy.

Sunshine, Sea, and Season of Birth: MS Incidence in Wales

Maternal sun exposure in gestation and throughout the lifetime is necessary for vitamin D synthesis, and living near the sea is a population level index of seafood consumption. The aim of this study was to estimate the incidence rate of multiple sclerosis (MS) in Wales and examine its association with sun exposure, coastal living, and latitude. The study used a database of MS hospital visits and admissions in Wales between 2002 and 2013. For the 1,909 lower layer super output areas (LSOAs) in Wales, coastal status, population, longitude/latitude, and average sunshine hours per day were obtained. Age-specific and age-standardised MS incidence were calculated and modelled using Poisson regression. The distribution of births by month was compared between MS cases and the combined England and Wales population. There were 3,557 new MS cases between 2002 and 2013, with an average annual incidence of 8.14 (95% CI: 7.69–8.59) among males and 12.97 (95% CI: 12.44–13.50) among females per 100,000 population. The female-to-male ratio was 1.86:1. For both sexes combined, the average annual incidence rate was 9.10 (95% CI: 8.80–9.40). All figures are age-standardized to the 1976 European standard population. Compared to the combined England and Wales population, more people with MS were born in April, observed-to-expected ratio: 1.21 (95% CI: 1.08–1.36). MS incidence varied directly with latitude and inversely with sunshine hours. Proximity to the coast was associated with lower MS incidence only in easterly areas. This study shows that MS incidence rate in Wales is comparable to the rate in Scotland and is associated with environmental factors that probably represent levels of vitamin D.

The epidemiology of multiple sclerosis in the Isle of Man: 2006-2011

BACKGROUND

We sought to determine the prevalence of MS on the Isle of Man in 2006 and 2011, and the incidence and mortality rates over this interval.

METHODS

Cases were identified by hospital medical record review, General Practitioners and the local MS Society. The significance of the change in prevalence over time and the significance of differences in frequencies by sex and place of birth were assessed by Poisson regression.

RESULTS

The 2006 prevalence was 153.64 per 100,000 persons and the 2011 prevalence was 179.89. The prevalence was higher among females and persons born in the Isle of Man at both time points. The 2006-2011 incidence rate was 6.86 per 100,000 person-years, much higher among females and persons born in the Isle of Man. The prevalence sex ratios in 2006 and 2011, 2.77 and 2.59, respectively, and the incidence sex ratio, 2.19, are similar to others found in the region. The mortality rate over the study period was 2.84 per 100,000 person-years, this solely among persons born overseas.

CONCLUSIONS

This is the first study of MS epidemiology in the Isle of Man, finding this area to be of high prevalence and to have one of the highest incidence rates in the UK region.

Incidence and prevalence of multiple sclerosis in Europe: a systematic review

BACKGROUND

Multiple sclerosis (MS) is the most common cause of neurological disability in young adults worldwide and approximately half of those affected are in Europe. The assessment of differential incidence and prevalence across populations can reveal spatial, temporal and demographic patterns which are important for identifying genetic and environmental factors contributing to MS. However, study methodologies vary and the quality of the methods can influence the estimates. This study aimed to systematically review European studies of incidence and prevalence of MS and to provide a quantitative assessment of their methodological quality.

METHODS

A comprehensive literature search was performed to obtain all original population-based studies of MS incidence and prevalence in European populations conducted and published between January 1985 and January 2011. Only peer-reviewed full-text articles published in English or French were included. All abstracts were screened for eligibility and two trained reviewers abstracted the data and graded the quality of each study using a tool specifically designed for this study.

RESULTS

There were 123 studies that met the inclusion criteria. The study estimates were highly heterogeneous, even within regions or countries. Quality was generally higher in the more recent studies, which also tended to use current diagnostic criteria. Prevalence and incidence estimates tended to be higher in the more recent studies and were higher in the Nordic countries and in northern regions of the British Isles. With rare exceptions, prevalence and incidence estimates were higher in women with ratios as high as 3:1. Few studies examined ethnicity. Epidemiological data at the national level was uncommon and there were marked geographical disparities in available data, with large areas of Europe unrepresented and other regions well-represented in the literature. Only 37% of the studies provided standardized estimates.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite the breadth of the literature on the epidemiology of MS in Europe, inter-study comparisons are hampered by the lack of standardization. Further research should focus on regions not yet studied and the evaluation of ethnic differences in MS prevalence and incidence. National-level studies using current diagnostic criteria, validated case definitions and similar age- and sex-standardization would allow better geographical comparisons.

Geomagnetic disturbances may be environmental risk factor for multiple sclerosis: an ecological study of 111 locations in 24 countries

BACKGROUND

We noticed that a hypothesis based on the effect of geomagnetic disturbances (GMD) has the ability to explain special features of multiple sclerosis (MS). Areas around geomagnetic 60 degree latitude (GM60L) experience the greatest amount of GMD. The easiest way to evaluate our hypothesis was to test the association of MS prevalence (MSP) with angular distance to geomagnetic 60 degree latitude (AMAG60) and compare it with the known association of MS with geographical latitude (GL). We did the same with angular distance to geographic 60 degree latitude (AGRAPH60) as a control.

METHODS

English written papers with MSP keywords, done in Europe (EUR), North America (NA) or Australasia (AUS) were retrieved from the PubMed. Geomagnetic coordinates were determined for each location and AMAG60 was calculated as absolute value of numerical difference between its geomagnetic latitude from GM60L. By an ecological study with using meta-regression analyses, the relationship of MSP with GL, AMAG60 and AGRAPH60 were evaluated separately. MSP data were weighted by square root of number of prevalent cases. Models were compared by their adjusted R square (AR2) and standard error of estimate (SEE).

RESULTS

111 MSP data were entered in the study. In each continent, AMAG60 had the best correlation with MSP, the largest AR2 (0.47, 0.42 and 0.84 for EUR, NA and AUS, respectively) and the least SEE. Merging both hemispheres data, AMAG60 explained 56% of MSP variations with the least SEE (R = 0.75, AR2 = 0.56, SEE = 57), while GL explained 17% (R = 0.41, AR2 = 0.17, SEE = 78.5) and AGRAPH60 explained 12% of that variations with the highest SEE (R = 0.35, AR2 = 0.12, SEE = 80.5).

CONCLUSIONS

Our results confirmed that AMAG60 is the best describer of MSP variations and has the strongest association with MSP distribution. They clarified that the well-known latitudinal gradient of MSP may be actually a gradient related to GM60L. Moreover, the location of GM60L can elucidate why MSP has parabolic and linear gradient in the north and south hemisphere, respectively. This preliminary evaluation supported that GMD can be the mysterious environmental risk factor for MS. We believe that this hypothesis deserves to be considered for further validation studies.

Paediatric acquired demyelinating syndromes: incidence, clinical and magnetic resonance imaging features

Objective:

Changing trends in multiple sclerosis (MS) epidemiology may first be apparent in the childhood population affected with first onset acquired demyelinating syndromes (ADSs). We aimed to determine the incidence, clinical, investigative and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) features of childhood central nervous system ADSs in the British Isles for the first time.

Methods:

We conducted a population active surveillance study. All paediatricians, and ophthalmologists (n = 4095) were sent monthly reporting cards (September 2009–September 2010). International Paediatric MS Study Group 2007 definitions and McDonald 2010 MS imaging criteria were used for acute disseminated encephalomyelitis (ADEM), clinically isolated syndrome (CIS) and neuromyelitis optica (NMO). Clinicians completed a standard questionnaire and provided an MRI copy for review.

Results:

Card return rates were 90%, with information available for 200/222 positive notifications (90%). After exclusion of cases, 125 remained (age range 1.3–15.9), with CIS in 66.4%, ADEM in 32.0% and NMO in 1.6%. The female-to-male ratio in children older than 10 years (n = 63) was 1.52:1 (p = 0.045). The incidence of first onset ADS in children aged 1–15 years old was 9.83 per million children per year (95% confidence interval [CI] 8.18–11.71). A trend towards higher incidence rates of ADS in children of South Asian and Black ethnicity was observed compared with White children. Importantly, a number of MRI characteristics distinguished ADEM from CIS cases. Of CIS cases with contrast imaging, 26% fulfilled McDonald 2010 MS diagnostic criteria.

Conclusions:

We report the highest surveillance incidence rates of childhood ADS. Paediatric MS diagnosis at first ADS presentation has implications for clinical practice and clinical trial design.

MHC transmission: insights into gender bias in MS susceptibility

OBJECTIVE

Major histocompatibility complex (MHC) genes dominate genetic susceptibility factors in multiple sclerosis (MS). Given the general consensus that incidence and prevalence of MS has been rising and specifically in women, we evaluated MHC-gender interactions.

METHODS

In a large family-based cohort consisting of 7,093 individuals (2,127 affected individuals) from 1,055 MS families, we examined MHC transmission by family structure and gender stratified by genetic distance of affected relatives from the MS proband.

RESULTS

We found that affected individuals with HLA-DRB1*15-positive genotypes have higher female-to-male ratios as compared with affected individuals with HLA-DRB1*15-negative genotypes (χ(2) = 9.97, p = 0.0015) with the exception of multiplex families with 3 or more affected across 2 generations. Transmission disequilibrium test results show that HLA-DRB1*15 transmission was more distorted in collateral families vs nuclear families (χ(2) = 8.030, p = 0.0046), exclusively in affected female-female pairs (χ(2) = 7.81, p = 0.0051), but not in mixed gender pairs (χ(2) = 1.58, p = 0.21) or matched male pairs (Fisher p = 0.21).

CONCLUSIONS

These observations implicate the MHC as the site of interactions and modifications mediating the female-to-male gender ratio in MS and its progressive increase. They further suggest this occurs via gene-environment interactions and epigenetic modifications in this region. The difference between collateral and nuclear families provides some insight into the inheritance, decay, and gender specificity of putative epigenetic marks.

Epidemiology of multiple sclerosis in Europe: a review

Multiple sclerosis (MS) is a progressive demyelinating and degenerative disease of the CNS with symptoms dependent on the type of the disease and the site of lesions. During the progression of the disease, symptoms become more permanent and progressive disability ensues. MS is a disease characterized by wide variations between patients, thus making categorization difficult. The aim of the current study was to review the existing epidemiological data of MS in Europe published during the last decade (2000-2009), using PubMed. Findings revealed an increasing incidence of MS during the last decade. Recent data indicate that latitude does not play a key role in determining the onset of the disease. MS has a significant impact on the quality of life for most patients over many years. The disease is twice as common in women than in men, and is at its peak in the most economically productive years of life. Pregnancy, postpartum status and vaccines may influence the onset and the course of the disease. Only one of the reviewed papers provides a view of progression from onset to death.

The changing demographic pattern of multiple sclerosis epidemiology

The uneven distribution of multiple sclerosis (MS) across populations can be attributed to differences in genes and the environment and their interaction. Prevalence and incidence surveys could be affected by inaccuracy of diagnosis and ascertainment, and prevalence also depends on survival. These sources of error might play a part in the geographical and temporal variations. Our literature search and meta-regression analyses indicated an almost universal increase in prevalence and incidence of MS over time; they challenge the well accepted theory of a latitudinal gradient of incidence of MS in Europe and North America, while this gradient is still apparent for Australia and New Zealand; and suggest a general, although not ubiquitous, increase in incidence of MS in females. The latter observation should prompt epidemiological studies to focus on changes in lifestyle in females. New insights into gene-environment and gene-gene interactions complicate interpretations of demographic epidemiology and have made obsolete the idea of simple causative associations between genes or the environment and MS.

Temporal trends in the incidence of multiple sclerosis: a systematic review

BACKGROUND

Multiple sclerosis (MS) has been traditionally considered to be more frequent in women and in regions more distant from the equator. However, recent reports suggest that the latitude gradient could be disappearing and that the female-to-male ratio among patients with MS has increased in the last decades. We have conducted a systematic review of incidence studies of MS to assess the overall incidence of MS and explore possible changes in the latitude gradient and the female-to-male ratio over time.

METHODS

Systematic review of incidence studies of MS published in Medline between 1966 and February 2007. Age- and sex-specific incidence rates were collected from eligible publications. We computed age-adjusted rates using the world population as standard, and assessed differences in rates according to latitude and period of case ascertainment. Additionally, we evaluated the association between period of case ascertainment and the female-to-male ratio.

RESULTS

The overall incidence rate of MS was 3.6 cases per 100,000 person-years (95% CI 3.0, 4.2) in women and 2.0 (95% CI 1.5, 2.4) in men. Higher latitude was associated with higher MS incidence, though this latitude gradient was attenuated after 1980, apparently due to increased incidence of MS in lower latitudes. The female-to-male ratio in MS incidence increased over time, from an estimated 1.4 in 1955 to 2.3 in 2000.

CONCLUSION

The latitude gradient present in older incidence studies of multiple sclerosis (MS) is decreasing. The female-to-male MS ratio has increased in the last five decades.

Factors in the rising prevalence of multiple sclerosis in the north-east of Ireland

BACKGROUND

Northern Ireland is recognized as an area of high risk for multiple sclerosis. The original study of Allison and Millar in 1951 found a prevalence of 51/100,000 and mean annual incidence of 2.74/100,000/year. Subsequent studies in 1961, 1986, and 1996 suggested rising prevalence--80, 138, and 168.2/100,000, respectively.

METHODS

In 2004, we surveyed the North-East of Northern Ireland (population 160,446, area 2030 km(2)) using multiple sources of case ascertainment, all satisfying the Poser criteria for definite or probable multiple sclerosis (MS) or the McDonald criteria.

RESULTS

From a provisional list of 469 cases, 370 (123 males, 247 females) were identified. The prevalence was 230.6 per 100,000 (95% CI 207.0-255.4) with significantly higher prevalence in females (300.8/100,000) than males (157.0/100,000). Direct standardization to the 1961 Northern Ireland population reduced the overall prevalence rate to 200.5/100,000 (95% CI 193.2-208.0), in females to 270.2/100,000 (95% CI 258.8-282.4) and in males to 131.1/100,000 (95% CI 122.8-139.9). In 1996, incidence had risen to 9.3/100,000/year (14 cases in population of 151,000) with a higher incidence in females (10.3/100,000/year) than males (8.3/100,000/year).

CONCLUSIONS

Northern Ireland continues to have a rising prevalence of MS. The increase in incidence suggests a true increase in the disease.

Incidence of multiple sclerosis in the United Kingdom

Existing data on the incidence of multiple sclerosis (MS) in the UK have some limitations. Few studies have reported age- and sex-specific incidence rates of MS, and none of those is based on a large sample of the general population. Further, no published reports have provided age- and sex-specific incidence rates of MS by clinical course from onset. To estimate the age- and sex-specific incidence rate and lifetime risk of multiple sclerosis, we identified all new cases of MS during the period 1993-2000 in the General Practice Research Database, which includes health information on over three million Britons. Based on 642 incident cases, incidence rates of MS adjusted to the world population were 7.2 (95 % CI 6.5, 7.8) in women and 3.1 (95 % CI 2.6, 3.5) in men. The incidence of MS with relapsing-remitting onset was higher in women than in men (incidence rate ratio 2.5, 95% CI 2.1, 3.1), but there were no sex differences for primary-progressive MS (incidence rate ratio 1.1, 95% CI 0.7, 1.8). The estimated lifetime risk from birth of receiving an MS diagnosis was 5.3 per 1,000 in women and 2.3 per 1,000 in men. These results confirm the relatively high incidence of MS in the UK and show marked differences in the sex-specific pattern of MS incidence by clinical course from onset.