The city and the virus

Spatiotemporal dynamics of epidemiology diseases: mobility based risk and short-term prediction modeling of COVID-19

Nowadays, epidemiological modeling is applied to a wide range of diseases, communicable and non-communicable, namely AIDS, Ebola, influenza, Dengue, Malaria, Zika. More recently, in the context of the last pandemic declared by the World Health Organization (WHO), several studies applied these models to SARS-CoV-2. Despite the increasing number of researches using spatial analysis, some constraints persist that prevent more complex modeling such as capturing local epidemiological dynamics or capturing the real patterns and dynamics. For example, the unavailability of: (i) epidemiological information such as the frequency with which it is made available; (ii) sociodemographic and environmental factors (e.g., population density and population mobility) at a finer scale which influence the evolution patterns of infectious diseases; or (iii) the number of cases information that is also very dependent on the degree of testing performed, often with severe territorial disparities and influenced by context factors. Moreover, the delay in case reporting and the lack of quality control in epidemiological information is responsible for biases in the data that lead to many results obtained being subject to the ecological fallacy, making it difficult to identify causal relationships. Other important methodological limitations are the control of spatiotemporal dependence, management of non-linearity, ergodicy, among others, which can impute inconsistencies to the results. In addition to these issues, social contact, is still difficult to quantify in order to be incorporated into modeling processes. This study aims to explore a modeling framework that can overcome some of these modeling methodological limitations to allow more accurate modeling of epidemiological diseases. Based on Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and spatial analysis, our model is developed to identify group of municipalities where population density (vulnerability) has a stronger relationship with incidence (hazard) and commuting movements (exposure). Specifically, our framework shows how to operate a model over data with no clear trend or seasonal pattern which is suitable for a short-term predicting (i.e., forecasting) of cases based on few determinants. Our tested models provide a good alternative for when explanatory data is few and the time component is not available, once they have shown a good fit and good short-term forecast ability.

Urban-rural disparities in COVID-19 hospitalisations and mortality: A population-based study on national surveillance data from Germany and Italy

PURPOSE

Recent literature has highlighted the overlapping contribution of demographic characteristics and spatial factors to urban-rural disparities in SARS-CoV-2 transmission and outcomes. Yet the interplay between individual characteristics, hospitalisation, and spatial factors for urban-rural disparities in COVID-19 mortality have received limited attention.

METHODS

To fill this gap, we use national surveillance data collected by the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control and we fit a generalized linear model to estimate the association between COVID-19 mortality and the individuals' age, sex, hospitalisation status, population density, share of the population over the age of 60, and pandemic wave across urban, intermediate and rural territories.

FINDINGS

We find that in what type of territory individuals live (urban-intermediate-rural) accounts for a significant difference in their probability of dying given SARS-COV-2 infection. Hospitalisation has a large and positive effect on the probability of dying given SARS-CoV-2 infection, but with a gradient across urban, intermediate and rural territories. For those living in rural areas, the risk of dying is lower than in urban areas but only if hospitalisation was not needed; while for those who were hospitalised in rural areas the risk of dying was higher than in urban areas.

CONCLUSIONS

Together with individuals' demographic characteristics (notably age), hospitalisation has the largest effect on urban-rural disparities in COVID-19 mortality net of other individual and regional characteristics, including population density and the share of the population over 60.

Harnessing Nanovaccines for Effective Immunization─A Special Concern on COVID-19: Facts, Fidelity, and Future Prospective

Nanotechnology has emerged as a transformative pathway in vaccine research and delivery. Nanovaccines, encompassing lipid and nonlipid formulations, exhibit considerable advantages over traditional vaccine techniques, including enhanced antigen stability, heightened immunogenicity, targeted distribution, and the potential for codelivery with adjuvants or immune modulators. This review provides a comprehensive overview of the latest advancements and applications of lipid and non-lipid-based nanovaccines in current vaccination strategies for immunization. The review commences by outlining the fundamental concepts underlying lipid and nonlipid nanovaccine design before delving into the diverse components and production processes employed in their development. Subsequently, a comparative analysis of various nanocarriers is presented, elucidating their distinct physicochemical characteristics and impact on the immune response, along with preclinical and clinical studies. The discussion also highlights how nanotechnology enables the possibility of personalized and combined vaccination techniques, facilitating the creation of tailored nanovaccines to meet the individual patient needs. The ethical aspects concerning the use of nanovaccines, as well as potential safety concerns and public perception, are also addressed. The study underscores the gaps and challenges that must be overcome before adopting nanovaccines in clinical practice. This comprehensive analysis offers vital new insights into lipid and nonlipid nanovaccine status. It emphasizes the significance of continuous research, collaboration among interdisciplinary experts, and regulatory measures to fully unlock the potential of nanotechnology in enhancing immunization and ensuring a healthier, more resilient society.

Planning for social distancing: How the legacy of historical epidemics shaped COVID-19's spread in Madrid

This paper combines historical and contemporary sources to examine 'epidemic urban planning' from the first decades of the 20th century through to the present day. It considers how infamous early 20th-century epidemics triggered the development of several urban regulations that profoundly shaped the city's future. To reduce the risk of contagion in bourgeois space, the city began displacing and spatially segregating the urban poor, leading to deprived neighbourhoods in the city's suburbs. The social and urban structure of these deprived, 'vulnerable' neighbourhoods remains to this day. Madrid was also greatly impacted by the COVID-19 crisis, and the initial distribution of COVID geographies seemed to reflect these historical legacies. Epidemic-influenced segregation kept wealthy neighbourhoods relatively safe during the first waves of the COVID-19 pandemic, concentrating the disease in poorer areas.

Vulnerability, neglect, and collectivity in Brazilian favelas: Surviving the threats of the COVID-19 pandemic and the state's necropolitics

The COVID-19 pandemic has deepened existing inequities and injustices in Brazil, seen in the disproportionately detrimental impacts on favelas. State policy responses to the pandemic have disregarded favela residents' experiences. Recommendations such as 'shelter-in-place' ignore the reality of over 11.4 million favela residents who cannot work from home or afford to stop working, nor practise physical distancing from others. This study investigates the discourse of community organisations in favelas as they respond to the threats of the COVID-19 pandemic and the state's necropolitics. Community organisations in favelas have taken action to protect their residents from the virus, unemployment and hunger. I assess organisations' (1) justification to act as a collective in their communities, and (2) stances about the government's responses to the crisis. Through content analysis of social media, websites and media appearances of eight favela organisations and collectives in São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro, this study finds three main themes through which organisations justify their actions: vulnerability, neglect, and collectivity and care. More than survival strategies, the actions of favela organisations are counter-political acts as they oppose the decrepit necropolitics of the state by collectively enduring in the Brazilian context of the COVID-19 pandemic. Understanding favela organisations' actions in response to the pandemic is fundamental. It further illuminates the impact of public health emergencies in the lives of informal settlements' residents and the governance of public health emergencies in these communities.

Initial signs of post-covid-19 physical structures of cities in Israel

The physical structure of cities is the result of self-organization processes in which profit-maximizing developers are key players. The recent Covid-19 pandemic was a natural experiment by means of which it is possible to gain insights into shifts in the spatial structure of cities by studying developers' behavior. Behavioral changes of urbanites triggered by the quarantine and lockdown periods, such as home-based work and online shopping on scales that were unthinkable heretofore, are expected to persist. These are likely to induce changes in the demand for housing, for work, and for retail space, impacting developers' decisions. Associated changes in the land values at different locations are occurring faster than changes of the physical shape of urban landscapes. It is possible that current changes in dwelling preferences will result in significant future shifts in the locational incidence of the urban intensities. We test this hypothesis by examining changes in land values during the last two years by means of a land value model calibrated with vast Geo-referenced data of the major metropolitan area in Israel. Data concerning all real estate transactions include information about the assets and the price of the exchanges. In parallel, built densities are calculated using detailed building data. Based on these data, we estimate the changes of land values for different types of dwellings before and during the pandemic. The result allows us to highlight possible initial signs of post-Covid-19 urban structures, driven by shifting behavior of developers.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s12076-023-00346-8.

Economic geography II: The economic geographies of the COVID-19 pandemic

This is the second of three reports on economic geography. It focuses on research that addresses issues deemed to be both urgent and generative of crisis. This report focuses on the crisis created by the emergence of COVID-19. While the virus may have been novel, many of its implications were not, as several important processes of uneven development and inequality accelerated. The paper first determines the extent to which the emergence of a pandemic virus constituted a 'crisis', before examining some of the most salient economic geographical impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. These include the rise of friction within the global economy resulting in significant disruption to global supply chains; the acceleration of the digital platform as an ever more dominant form of economic organisation; and how the pandemic deepened social inequalities and uneven development. The report concludes with observations about the emergence of what has been described as a post-pandemic polycrisis.

Mobility and Dissemination of COVID-19 in Portugal: Correlations and Estimates from Google’s Mobility Data

The spread of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has important links with population mobility. Social interaction is a known determinant of human-to-human transmission of infectious diseases and, in turn, population mobility as a proxy of interaction is of paramount importance to analyze COVID-19 diffusion. Using mobility data from Google’s Community Reports, this paper captures the association between changes in mobility patterns through time and the corresponding COVID-19 incidence at a multi-scalar approach applied to mainland Portugal. Results demonstrate a strong relationship between mobility data and COVID-19 incidence, suggesting that more mobility is associated with more COVID-19 cases. Methodological procedures can be summarized in a multiple linear regression with a time moving window. Model validation demonstrate good forecast accuracy, particularly when we consider the cumulative number of cases. Based on this premise, it is possible to estimate and predict future evolution of the number of COVID-19 cases using near real-time information of population mobility.

Demographic and Social Dimension of the COVID-19 Pandemic in Polish Cities: Excess Deaths and Residents’ Fears

The aim of this article is to present the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on demographic facts and social opinions regarding life in Polish cities under conditions of an epidemic threat. We point out that the way of informing the public about the threat of the disease was conducive to causing moral panic, and the imposed top-down methods of protection against infection and treatment methods, which were uniform for all, brought negative effects in the form of increased mortality and excess deaths. In this article, we present statistical data on the deaths of city dwellers with more than 100,000 inhabitants and the results of public opinion polls on changes in the perception of satisfaction with life in the city and fears related to the risk of disease. The pandemic has contributed to a deterioration in both health (excess deaths, health debt) and the broader quality of life. Previously, living in a large city in Poland provided a number of economic, social, and health benefits. The period of the pandemic and the methods used to fight this threat, have created a situation of moral panic and change unfavorable for urban residents. Based on statistical data and survey research, we attempt to verify this thesis.