A method for analyzing changing prison populations: explaining the growth of the elderly in prison

A Generational Shift: Race and the Declining Lifetime Risk of Imprisonment

Mass incarceration fundamentally altered the life course for a generation of American men, but sustained declines in imprisonment in recent years raise questions about how incarceration is shaping current generations. This study makes three primary contributions to a fuller understanding of the contemporary landscape of incarceration in the United States. First, we assess the scope of decarceration. Between 1999 and 2019, the Black male incarceration rate dropped by 44%, and notable declines in Black male imprisonment were evident in all 50 states. Second, our life table analysis demonstrates marked declines in the lifetime risks of incarceration. For Black men, the lifetime risk of incarceration declined by nearly half from 1999 to 2019. We estimate that less than 1 in 5 Black men born in 2001 will be imprisoned, compared with 1 in 3 for the 1981 birth cohort. Third, decarceration has shifted the institutional experiences of young adulthood. In 2009, young Black men were much more likely to experience imprisonment than college graduation. Ten years later, this trend had reversed, with Black men more likely to graduate college than go to prison. Our results suggest that prison has played a smaller role in the institutional landscape for the most recent generation compared with the generation exposed to the peak of mass incarceration.

Psychopathic Expression From Early to Late Adulthood: An Item Response Theory Analysis of the Hare Psychopathy Checklist-Revised

Several investigators have assessed the Psychopathy Checklist-Revised (PCL-R) for invariance across offender ethnicities and in correctional and forensic-psychiatric contexts. Yet we do not know whether, or to what extent, item properties among male offenders vary throughout adulthood. With a combined sample of PCL-R data on offenders from Canada and the United States (N = 4,820), we measured item properties for offenders in age groups of Early (18-30 years old), Middle (31-49 years old), and Late (50+ years old) adulthood. Nine items showed differential item functioning across age group comparisons. Among the Early group, the PCL-R Interpersonal and Affective traits were most informative for measuring the latent trait of psychopathy. Among the Late group, the PCL-R Lifestyle and Antisocial items were most informative for the latent trait. These differences in item information illustrate how psychopathy manifests in male offenders throughout adulthood.

Comparing health status, disability, and access to care in older and younger inmates in the New South Wales corrections system

PURPOSE

The purpose of this paper is to compare the rates of chronic illness, disability and access to care between older and younger inmates who took part in a large epidemiological study in New South Wales, Australia.

DESIGN/METHODOLOGY/APPROACH

Data are presented from a cross-sectional study based on a sample of inmates from correctional sites in NSW. The inclusion of results here was guided by the literature with regard to their relevance to older people, and older inmates in particular.

FINDINGS

Results indicate that a higher proportion of older inmates suffer a range of chronic illnesses, with prevalence often many times higher than that of younger inmates. Older inmates are more likely to be classified as disabled and have a disability which impacts their mobility. Older inmates also reported accessing medical services in prison more recently than younger inmates and were more likely to have seen both nurses and general practitioners.

PRACTICAL IMPLICATIONS

Older inmates appear to be considerably more resource intensive than younger inmates. The increasing proportion of inmates who are classified as older thus poses a pressing challenge to those working in the carceral space and, in particular, those responsible for providing healthcare to incarcerated people.

ORIGINALITY/VALUE

The impact of aging prisoners on resource demand has yet to be effectively measured. This study provides an important first step towards that goal.

The Growth of Older Inmate Populations: How Population Aging Explains Rising Age at Admission

Objectives

Older inmates are the fastest growing segment of the prison population; however, the reasons for this are not well understood. One explanation is that the general population is aging, driving prison age distributions to change. For this article, we study the role of population aging in prison growth by investigating how the baby boom phenomenon of post-World War II has contributed to the growth of older inmate populations.

Method

We identify the impact of population aging using simulation methods that explain prison growth as the combination of criminal justice processes.

Results

Overall, we find evidence that population aging has played a significant role in explaining the growth of older inmate populations, in particular among inmates aged between 50 and 64 years, contributing to as much as half of the observed increase in these groups since 2000.

Discussion

This finding stands in contrast to the notion that population aging has little explanatory power in describing the growth of prison populations and implies that older inmate groups are more sensitive to compositional changes in the general population. We argue that prediction-based modeling of prison growth should more seriously consider the impacts and consequences of demographic shifts among older prisoner populations.

HOW THE U.S. PRISON BOOM HAS CHANGED THE AGE DISTRIBUTION OF THE PRISON POPULATION

This article provides a demographic exposition of the changes in the U.S prison population during the period of mass incarceration that began in the late twentieth century. By drawing on data from the Survey of Inmates in State Correctional Facilities (1974-2004) for inmates 17-72 years of age (N = 336), we show that the age distribution shifted upward dramatically: Only 16 percent of the state prison population was 40 years old or older in 1974; by 2004, this percentage had doubled to 33 percent with the median age of prisoners rising from 27 to 34 years old. By using an estimable function approach, we find that the change in the age distribution of the prison population is primarily a cohort effect that is driven by the "enhanced" penal careers of the cohorts who hit young adulthood-the prime age of both crime and incarceration-when substance use was at its peak. Period-specific factors (e.g., proclivity for punishment and incidence of offense) do matter, but they seem to play out more across the life cycles of persons most affected in young adulthood (cohort effects) than across all age groups at one point in time (period effects).

Toward a Demographic Understanding of Incarceration Disparities: Race, Ethnicity, and Age Structure

OBJECTIVES

Non-Hispanic blacks and Hispanics in the United States are more likely to be incarcerated than non-Hispanic whites. The risk of incarceration also varies with age, and there are striking differences in age distributions across racial/ethnic groups. Guided by these trends, the present study examines the extent to which differences in age structure account for incarceration disparities across racial and ethnic groups.

METHODS

We apply two techniques commonly employed in the field of demography, age-standardization and decomposition, to data provided by the Bureau of Justice Statistics and the 2010 decennial census to assess the contribution of age structure to racial and ethnic disparities in incarceration.

FINDINGS

The non-Hispanic black and Hispanic incarceration rates in 2010 would have been 13-20 % lower if these groups had age structures identical to that of the non-Hispanic white population. Moreover, age structure accounts for 20 % of the Hispanic/white disparity and 8 % of the black/white disparity.

CONCLUSION

The comparison of crude incarceration rates across racial/ethnic groups may not be ideal because these groups boast strikingly different age structures. Since the risk of imprisonment is tied to age, criminologists should consider adjusting for age structure when comparing rates of incarceration across groups.