Estimating the prognosis of hepatitis C patients infected by transfusion in Canada between 1986 and 1990

Another Step Toward Hepatitis C Elimination: An Economic Evaluation of an Irish National Birth Cohort Testing Program

OBJECTIVES

We aimed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of offering once-off birth cohort testing for hepatitis C virus (HCV) to people in Ireland born between 1965 and 1985, the cohort with the highest reported prevalence of undiagnosed chronic HCV infection.

METHODS

Systematic and opportunistic HCV birth cohort testing programs, implemented over a 4-year timeframe, were compared with the current practice of population risk-based testing only in a closed-cohort decision tree and Markov model hybrid over a lifetime time horizon. Outcomes were expressed in quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs). Costs were presented from the health system's perspective in 2020 euro (€). Uncertainty was assessed via deterministic, probabilistic, scenario, and threshold analyses.

RESULTS

In the base case, systematic testing yielded the largest cost and health benefits, followed by opportunistic testing and risk-based testing. Compared with risk-based testing, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio for opportunistic testing was €14 586 (95% confidence interval €4185-€33 527) per QALY gained. Compared with opportunistic testing, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio for systematic testing was €16 827 (95% confidence interval €5106-€38 843) per QALY gained. These findings were robust across a range of sensitivity analyses.

CONCLUSIONS

Both systematic and opportunistic birth cohort testing would be considered an efficient use of resources, but systematic testing was the optimal strategy at willingness-to-pay threshold values typically used in Ireland. Although cost-effective, any decision to introduce birth cohort testing for HCV (in Ireland or elsewhere) must be balanced with considerations regarding the feasibility and budget impact of implementing a national testing program given high initial costs and resource use.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of hepatitis C virus (HCV) point-of-care assay for HCV screening

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) continues to pose significant public health concerns with approximately 44% of chronically infected Canadians undiagnosed. The current HCV screening in Canada is a two-step diagnosis pathway consisting of anti-HCV testing and HCV ribonucleic acid (RNA) testing. The introduction of HCV point-of-care assays, such as the Xpert HCV viral load finger-stick assay, can facilitate HCV RNA diagnosis during a single visit and provide quick linkage to care. We evaluated the cost-effectiveness of HCV point-of-care testing compared with current HCV screening strategies for injection drug users (IDUs) from a Canadian provincial Ministry of Health perspective.

METHODS

A state-transition model based on published literature was developed to compare HCV point-of-care assay with the standard-of-care blood screening for a one-time HCV screening and treatment program. It adopted a lifetime time horizon and included health states related to treatment, fibrosis stages, and advanced liver disease clinical states. Outcomes were expressed in costs, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to assess the robustness of the model.

RESULTS

HCV point-of-care assay generated an additional 0.035 QALYs/person at a cost reduction of $21.15 compared with the standard-of-care screening. The results were the most sensitive to the specificity of HCV point-of-care assay.

CONCLUSIONS

The implementation of HCV point-of-care screening in Canada is likely to be cost-saving for IDUs. Early detection and treatment of undiagnosed individuals can prolong people's life span and save healthcare costs associated with HCV-related complications.

Cost-Utility Analysis of Vasoconstrictors Plus Albumin in the Treatment of Thai Patients with Type 1 Hepatorenal Syndrome

Purpose

Type 1 hepatorenal syndrome (type 1 HRS) or hepatorenal syndrome-acute renal injury (HRS-AKI) leads to high short-term mortality rates in patients with cirrhosis. Vasoconstrictor therapy effectively improves survival of these patients and has been a bridge to liver transplantation. The aim of this study was to assess the cost-utility of terlipressin plus albumin (T+A) and noradrenaline plus albumin (N+A) compared to best supportive care (BSC) for treating type 1 HRS patients in Thailand.

Methods

A cost-utility analysis using a six-state Markov model was performed from societal and payer perspectives over a lifetime horizon. The clinical outcomes, costs, and utility parameters were obtained from literature, network meta-analyses, and expert opinion. One-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were conducted to account for uncertainty.

Results

The T+A yielded the highest cost (848,325 Thai Baht (THB)) and health outcomes (2.82 life-years (LY) and 2.27 quality-adjusted life-years (QALY)). Compared to BSC, incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) of the T+A and N+A were 377,566 and 412,979 THB per QALY gained, respectively. If N+A is administered outside the intensive care unit, the ICER was 308,964 THB per QALY. The treatment cost after liver transplantation from year 3 onwards was the most influential factor for ICERs, followed by the cost of terlipressin, duration of noradrenaline treatment, and cost of albumin. At the Thai societal willingness-to-pay threshold of 160,000 THB per QALY gained, the probabilities of being cost-effective for T+A, N+A, and BSC were 11%, 20%, and 69%, respectively.

Conclusion

The T+A and N+A treatments would not be cost-effective compared to BSC in the Thai setting.

Treatment of Chronic Hepatitis C in Young Children Reduces Adverse Outcomes and Is Cost-Effective Compared with Deferring Treatment to Adulthood

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of treating young children with chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) with new direct-acting antivirals.

STUDY DESIGN

A state-transition model of chronic HCV was developed to conduct a cost-effectiveness analysis comparing treatment at age 6 years vs delaying treatment until age 18 years. Model inputs were derived from recently conducted systematic reviews, published literature, and government statistics. Medical care costs were obtained from linked population level laboratory and administrative data (Ontario, Canada). Outcomes are expressed in expected quality-adjusted life-years and costs (CAD$). Analysis included a base-case to estimate the expected value and one-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses to evaluate the impact of uncertainty of the model inputs.

RESULTS

After 20 years, treating 10 000 children early would prevent 330 cases of cirrhosis, 18 cases of hepatocellular carcinoma, and 48 liver-related deaths. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of early treatment compared to delayed treatment was approximately $12 690/quality-adjusted life-years gained and considered cost-effective. Model results were robust to variation in fibrosis progression rates, disease state-based costs, treatment costs, and utilities.

CONCLUSIONS

Delaying treatment until age 18 years results in an increased lifetime risk of late-stage liver complications. Early treatment in children is cost effective. Our work supports clinical and health policies that broaden HCV treatment access to young children.

Social values for health technology assessment in Canada: a scoping review of hepatitis C screening, diagnosis and treatment

Background

Health care system decision makers face challenges in allocating resources for screening, diagnosis and treatment of hepatitis C. Approximately 240,000 individuals are infected with the hepatitis C virus (HCV) in Canada. Populations most affected by HCV include Indigenous people, people who inject drugs, immigrants and homeless or incarcerated populations as well as those born between 1946 and 1965. Curative but expensive drug regimens of novel direct acting antivirals (DAAs) are available. We aim to identify social values from academic literature for inclusion in health technology assessments.

Methods

We conducted a scoping review of academic literature to identify and analyze the social values and evidence-based recommendations for screening, diagnosis and treatment of HCV in Canada. After applying inclusion/exclusion criteria, we abstracted: type of intervention(s), population(s) affected, study location, screening methods, diagnostics and treatments. We then abstracted and applied qualitative codes for social values. We extracted social value statements and clustered them into one of 4 categories: (1) equity and justice, (2) duty to provide care, (3) maximization of population benefit, and (4) individual versus community interests.

Results

One hundred and eighteen articles met our inclusion criteria on screening, diagnosis and treatment of HCV in Canada. Of these, 54 (45.8%) discussed screening, 4 (3.4%) discussed diagnosis and 60 (50.8%) discussed treatment options. Most articles discussed the general population and other non-vulnerable populations. Articles that discussed vulnerable populations focused on people who inject drugs. We coded 1243 statements, most of which fell into the social value categories of equity and justice, duty to provide care and maximization of population benefit.

Conclusion

The academic literature identified an expanded set of social values to be taken into account by resource allocation decision makers in financially constrained environments. In the context of hepatitis C, authors called for greater consideration of equity and justice and the duty to provide care in making evidence-based recommendations for screening, diagnosis and treatment for different populations and in different settings that also account for individual and community interests.

The health impact of delaying direct-acting antiviral treatment for chronic hepatitis C: A decision-analytic approach

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) are highly effective, but expensive treatments for chronic hepatitis C (CHC). To manage costs, drug plans worldwide have rationed access to DAAs in a variety of ways. This study quantifies the health impact of formulary restrictions and presents a clinical decision tool for informing treatment timing decisions.

METHODS

A decision-analytic model was developed to quantify the health impact of delaying DAAs for subpopulations stratified by age, fibrosis level, viral genotype, and injection drug use over their lifetime. The health impact was quantified in terms of quality-adjusted life expectancy (quality-adjusted life years, or QALYs) and life expectancy (years).

RESULTS

Deferring DAAs for patients with no or mild fibrosis (F0/F1) for 1-5 years is unlikely to result in life expectancy losses and leads only to marginal losses of 0.02-0.06 QALYs per year of delay. However, for 30-50-year-olds with advanced fibrosis (≥F3) delays as short as a year results in a considerable health loss (0.25-1.04 QALYs and 0.19-1.53 years). Reimbursement limits for those with substance use are associated with large health losses. People who actively inject drugs with advanced fibrosis (≥F3) may lose 0.18-1.05 QALYs and 0.13-1.16 years per year of delay, despite the risk of reinfection and competing mortality. Results are robust to parameter uncertainty and key assumptions.

CONCLUSIONS

We present a clinical decision tool for informing treatment timing for various CHC subpopulations. In general, findings suggest that patients with at least moderate fibrosis should be treated promptly regardless of active drug use.

Can we afford not to screen and treat hepatitis C virus infection in Canada?

BACKGROUND

Screening for hepatitis C virus (HCV) followed by direct-acting antiviral (DAA) treatment in individuals born between 1945 and 1964 has been shown to be both effective and cost-effective, but the question of affordability remains unresolved. We looked at long-term cost and health outcomes of HCV screening for Ontario up to 2030.

METHODS

We used a validated state-transition model to analyze the budget and health impact of HCV screening followed by DAA treatment in individuals born between 1945 and 1964 versus current practice. We used a payer's perspective, discounting costs at an annual rate of 1.5%. Costs, liver-related deaths, and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and decompensated cirrhosis (DC) cases detected were measured over a 14-year period.

RESULTS

By 2030, the cost of implementing a HCV screening program for individuals born between 1945 and 1964 will add an additional $845 million to the Ontario health care budget. Sensitivity analyses showed that DAA costs had the largest effect on the budget, and decreasing DAA costs to $16,000 will lead to a significantly lower budget impact of $331 million. Regarding population health, a screen-and-treat strategy will prevent 1,199 cases of HCC, 1,565 cases of DC, and 1,665 liver-related deaths by 2030.

CONCLUSIONS

Contrasting the budget impact of this HCV screening strategy with other recommended health services and technologies, we conclude that HCV screening should be considered affordable. If Canada is committed to meeting the targets set out by the World Health Organization, then provinces cannot afford to not expand current screening programs.

Future complications of chronic hepatitis C in a low-risk area: projections from the hepatitis c study in Northern Norway

BACKGROUND

Hepatitis C (HCV) infection causes an asymptomatic chronic hepatitis in most affected individuals, which often remains undetected until cirrhosis and cirrhosis-related complications occur. Screening of high-risk subjects in Northern Norway has revealed a relatively low prevalence in the general population (0.24%). Despite this, late complications of HCV infection are increasing. Our object was to estimate the future prevalence and complications of chronic HCV infection in the period 2013-2050 in a low-risk area.

METHODS

We have entered available data into a prognostic Markov model to project future complications to HCV infection.

RESULTS

The model extrapolates the prevalence in the present cohort of HCV-infected individuals, and assumes a stable low incidence in the projection period. We predict an almost three-fold increase in the incidence of cirrhosis (68 per 100,000), of decompensated cirrhosis (21 per 100,000) and of hepatocellular carcinoma (4 per 100,000) by 2050, as well as a six-fold increase in the cumulated number of deaths from HCV-related liver disease (170 per 100,000 inhabitants). All estimates are made assuming an unchanged treatment coverage of approximately 15%. The estimated numbers can be reduced by approximately 50% for cirrhosis, and by approximately one third for the other endpoints if treatment coverage is raised to 50%.

CONCLUSION

These projections from a low-prevalence area indicate a substantial rise in HCV-related morbidity and mortality in the coming years. The global HCV epidemic is of great concern and increased treatment coverage is necessary to reduce the burden of the disease.

Model-based projection of health and economic effects of screening for hepatitis C in Canada

BACKGROUND

Because most hepatitis C virus (HCV) infections are asymptomatic and often unrecognized, screening for hepatitis C has been proposed as a plausible public health strategy. We examined the health and economic consequences of a selective one-time hepatitis C screening program for specific populations in the context of current treatment patterns.

METHODS

We used a state-transition model to evaluate 2 general strategies: no screening, and screen and treat with direct-acting antiviral agents. We examined these strategies for 4 different target populations (scenarios): 1) asymptomatic people not at high risk for HCV infection, 2) immigrant populations with high prevalence, 3) a birth cohort of people aged 25-64 years and 4) a birth cohort of people aged 45-64 years of age. We obtained model data from the published literature and expert opinions. We used a payer perspective, a lifetime time horizon and a 5% discount rate.

RESULTS

Screening would prevent 49.7%, 57.4%, 64.1% and 49.6% of HCV-related deaths over the lifetime of the cohort for scenarios 1, 2, 3 and 4, respectively. Screening would produce incremental-cost-effectiveness ratios between $31 468/quality-adjusted life-year and $50 490/quality-adjusted life-year. Probabilistic sensitivity analyses indicated that the chance that screening would be cost-effective at $50 000 willingness-to-pay threshold was 39.5%, 63.2%, 58.4% and 58.1% for scenarios 1, 2, 3 and 4, respectively.

INTERPRETATION

Our analyses suggest that a one-time hepatitis C screening and treatment program in Canada is likely to be cost-effective for scenarios 2, 3 and 4. The screening programs we have evaluated would identify asymptomatic people with chronic HCV infection and would enable medical treatment to be offered if needed before the development of advanced liver disease.

Drug therapies for chronic hepatitis C infection: a cost-effectiveness analysis

BACKGROUND

Before 2011, pegylated interferon plus ribavirin was the standard therapy for chronic hepatitis C. Interferon-free direct-acting antiviral agents were then approved. Although these treatments appear to be more effective, they are substantially more expensive. In anticipation of the need for information regarding the comparative cost-effectiveness of new regimens in a recent therapeutic review, we conducted the analysis to inform listing decision in Canada.

METHODS

A state-transition model was developed in the form of a cost-utility analysis. Regimens included in the analysis were comprehensive. The cohort under consideration had a mean age of 50 years. The cohort was defined by treatment status and cirrhosis status. Inputs for the model were derived from published sources and validated by clinical experts.

RESULTS

For each genotype 1 population, at least 1 of the interferon-free agents appeared to be economically attractive compared with pegylated interferon-ribavirin, at a willingness-to-pay of $50 000 per quality-adjusted life-year. The drug that was the most cost-effective varied by population. For genotype 2-4 population, the direct-acting antiviral therapies appeared not to be economically attractive compared with pegylated interferon-ribavirin for the treatment-naive; however, there were direct-acting antiviral therapies that appeared to be attractive when compared with no treatment for the treatment-experienced.

INTERPRETATION

Public health policy should be informed by consideration of health benefit, social and ethical values, feasibility and cost-effectiveness. Our analysis assists the development of reimbursements and policies for interferon-free direct-acting antiviral agent regimens for chronic hepatitis C infection by informing the last criterion. Considering the rapid development of treatments for chronic hepatitis C, further update and expanded reviews will be necessary.

Economic evaluation of pegylated interferon plus ribavirin for treatment of chronic hepatitis C in Thailand: genotype 1 and 6

Background

Pegylated interferon alpha 2a, alpha 2b and ribavirin have been included to the National List of Essential Medicines (NLEM) for treatment of only chronic hepatitis C genotypes 2 and 3 in Thailand. This reimbursement policy has not covered for other genotypes of hepatitis C virus infection (HCV) especially for genotypes 1 and 6 that account for 30-50 % of all HCV infection in Thailand. Therefore, this research determined whether pegylated interferon alpha 2a or alpha 2b plus ribavirin is more cost-effective than a palliative care for treatment of HCV genotype 1 and 6 in Thailand.

Methods

A cost-utility analysis using a model-based economic evaluation was conducted based on a societal perspective. A Markov model was developed to estimate costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) comparing between the combination of pegylated interferon alpha 2a or alpha 2b and ribavirin with a usual palliative care for genotype 1 and 6 HCV patients. Health-state transition probabilities, virological responses, and utility values were obtained from published literatures. Direct medical and direct non-medical costs were included and retrieved from published articles and Thai Standard Cost List for Health Technology Assessment. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was presented as costs in Thai baht per QALY gained.

Results

HCV treatment with pegylated interferon alpha 2a or alpha 2b plus ribavirin was dominant or cost-saving in Thailand compared to a palliative care. The ICER value was negative with lower in total costs (peg 2a- 747,718vs. peg 2b- 819,921 vs. palliative care- 1,169,121 Thai baht) and more in QALYs (peg 2a- 13.44 vs. peg 2b- 13.14 vs. palliative care- 11.63 years) both in HCV genotypes 1 and 6.

Conclusion

As cost-saving results, the Subcommittee for Development of the NLEM decided to include both pegylated interferon alpha 2a and alpha 2b into the NLEM for treatment of HCV genotype 1 and 6 recently. Economic evaluation for these current drugs can be further applied to other novel medications for HCV treatment.

Visualizing the hepatic vascular architecture using superb microvascular imaging in patients with hepatitis C virus: A novel technique

AIM: To identify the hepatic vascular architecture of patients with hepatitis C virus (HCV) using superb microvascular imaging (SMI) and investigate the use of SMI in the evaluation of liver fibrosis.

METHODS: SMI was performed in 100 HCV patients. SMI images were classified into five types according to the vascular pattern, and these patterns were compared with the fibrosis stage. Moreover, the images were analyzed to examine vascularity by integrating the number of SMI signals in the region of interest ROI [number of vascular trees (VT)]. The number of VT, fibrosis stage, serum parameters of liver function, and CD34 expression were investigated.

RESULTS: There was a significant difference between SMI distribution pattern and fibrosis stage (P < 0.001). The mean VT values in each of the fibrosis stages were as follows: 26.69 ± 7.08 in F0, 27.72 ± 9.32 in F1, 36.74 ± 9.23 in F2, 37.36 ± 5.32 in F3, and 58.14 ± 14.08 in F4. The VT showed excellent diagnostic ability for F4 [area under the receiver operator characteristic (AUROC): 0.911]. The VT was significantly correlated with the CD34 labeling index (r = 0.617, P < 0.0001).

CONCLUSION: SMI permitted the detailed delineation of the vascular architecture in chronic liver disease. SMI appears to be a reliable tool for noninvasively detecting significant fibrosis or cirrhosis in HCV patients.

Prevention of Hepatitis C by Screening and Treatment in U.S. Prisons

BACKGROUND

The prevalence of hepatitis C virus (HCV) in U.S. prisoners is high; however, HCV testing and treatment are rare. Infected inmates released back into society contribute to the spread of HCV in the general population. Routine hepatitis screening of inmates followed by new therapies may reduce ongoing HCV transmission.

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the health and economic effect of HCV screening and treatment in prisons on the HCV epidemic in society.

DESIGN

Agent-based microsimulation model of HCV transmission and progression of HCV disease.

DATA SOURCES

Published literature.

TARGET POPULATION

Population in U.S. prisons and general community.

TIME HORIZON

30 years.

PERSPECTIVE

Societal.

INTERVENTIONS

Risk-based and universal opt-out hepatitis C screening in prisons, followed by treatment in a portion of patients.

OUTCOME MEASURES

Prevention of HCV transmission and associated disease in prisons and society, costs, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER), and total prison budget.

RESULTS OF BASE-CASE ANALYSIS

Implementing risk-based and opt-out screening could diagnose 41,900 to 122,700 new HCV cases in prisons in the next 30 years. Compared with no screening, these scenarios could prevent 5500 to 12,700 new HCV infections caused by released inmates, wherein about 90% of averted infections would have occurred outside of prisons. Screening could also prevent 4200 to 11,700 liver-related deaths. The ICERs of screening scenarios were $19,600 to $29,200 per QALY, and the respective first-year prison budget was $900 to $1150 million. Prisons would require an additional 12.4% of their current health care budget to implement such interventions.

RESULTS OF SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS

Results were sensitive to the time horizon, and ICERs otherwise remained less than $50,000 per QALY.

LIMITATION

Data on transmission network, reinfection rate, and opt-out HCV screening rate are lacking.

CONCLUSION

Universal opt-out HCV screening in prisons is highly cost-effective and would reduce HCV transmission and HCV-associated diseases primarily in the outside community. Investing in U.S. prisons to manage hepatitis C is a strategic approach to address the current epidemic.

PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE

National Institutes of Health.

Cost-effectiveness of daclatasvir plus sofosbuvir-based regimen for treatment of hepatitis C virus genotype 3 infection in Canada

OBJECTIVE

New regimens for the treatment of chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) genotype 3 have demonstrated substantial improvement in sustained virologic response (SVR) compared with existing therapies, but are considerably more expensive. The objective of this study was to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of two novel all-oral, interferon-free regimens for the treatment of patients with HCV genotype 3: daclatasvir plus sofosbuvir (DCV + SOF) and sofosbuvir plus ribavirin (SOF + RBV), from a Canadian health-system perspective.

METHODS

A decision analytic Markov model was developed to compare the effect of various treatment strategies on the natural history of the disease and their associated costs in treatment-naïve and treatment-experienced patients. Patients were initially distributed across fibrosis stages F0-F4, and may incur disease progression through fibrosis stages and on to end-stage liver disease complications and death; or may achieve SVR. Clinical efficacy, health-related quality-of-life, costs, and transition probabilities were based on published literature. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis was performed to assess parameter uncertainty associated with the analysis.

RESULTS

In treatment-naive patients, the expected quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) for interferon-free regimens were higher for DCV + SOF (12.37) and SOF + RBV (12.48) compared to that of pINF + RBV (11.71) over a lifetime horizon, applying their clinical trial treatment durations. The expected costs were higher for DCV + SOF ($170,371) and SOF + RBV ($194,776) vs pINF + RBV regimen ($90,905). Compared to pINF + RBV, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICER) were $120,671 and $135,398 per QALYs for DCV + SOF and SOF + RBV, respectively. In treatment-experienced patients, DCV + SOF regimen dominated the SOF + RBV regimen. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis indicated a 100% probability that a DCV + SOF regimen was cost saving in treatment-experienced patients.

CONCLUSION

Daclatasvir plus sofosbuvir is a safe and effective option for the treatment of chronic HCV genotype 3 patients. This regimen could be considered a cost-effective option following a first-line treatment of peg-interferon/ribavirin treatment experienced patients with HCV genotype-3 infection.

Disease burden of chronic hepatitis C among immigrants in Canada

Immigrants with chronic hepatitis C (CHC) in Canada have doubled risk of hepatocellular carcinoma. To measure the burden of CHC among immigrants in Canada. A decision analytic model was developed to compare immigrants with CHC and age-matched immigrants without CHC for survival years, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) and medical costs per life year. Hepatitis C epidemiology among immigrants was based on hepatitis C prevalence in their home countries. A cohort of immigrant patients was retrospectively followed up to estimate fibrosis stage distribution, treatment patterns and prognosis of compensated cirrhosis. Other model variables were based on published sources. Base case analysis, one-way sensitivity analysis and probabilistic sensitivity analysis were performed to measure the burden of CHC and assess the impact of uncertainty associated with model variables on the burden of CHC. CHC could reduce survival by 9.6 years [95% credible interval (CI): 8.0-10.9 years], reduce QALYs by 9.5 years (95% CI: 6.0-13.8 years) and increase medical costs per life year by $1950 (95% CI: $1518 to $2486, 2006 Canadian dollars). Because nearly half of immigrants with CHC were not diagnosed until the development of cirrhosis, the burden of CHC was highly sensitive to the risks of liver-related complications and mortality but insensitive to pegylated interferon plus ribavirin. The burden of CHC among immigrants in Canada is substantial mainly due to liver-related complications and mortality. The delay in diagnosis was another important contributor to the burden of CHC among immigrants.

Los alamos hepatitis C immunology database

The Los Alamos Hepatitis C Virus (HCV) Sequence Database (http://hcv.lanl.gov or http://hcv-db.org) was officially launched in September 2003. The sister HCV Immunology Database was made public in September 2004. The HCV Immunology Database is based on the Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) Immunology Database. The HCV Immunology Database contains a curated inventory of immunological epitopes in HCV and their interaction with the immune system, with associated retrieval and analysis tools. This article describes in detail the types of data and services that the new database offers, the tools provided and the database framework. The data and some of the HCV database tools are available for download for non-commercial use.

A Parallel Sliding Region Algorithm to Make Agent-Based Modeling Possible for a Large-Scale Simulation: Modeling Hepatitis C Epidemics in Canada

Agent-based models (ABMs) are computer simulation models that define interactions among agents and simulate emergent behaviors that arise from the ensemble of local decisions. ABMs have been increasingly used to examine trends in infectious disease epidemiology. However, the main limitation of ABMs is the high computational cost for a large-scale simulation. To improve the computational efficiency for large-scale ABM simulations, we built a parallelizable sliding region algorithm (SRA) for ABM and compared it to a nonparallelizable ABM. We developed a complex agent network and performed two simulations to model hepatitis C epidemics based on the real demographic data from Saskatchewan, Canada. The first simulation used the SRA that processed on each postal code subregion subsequently. The second simulation processed the entire population simultaneously. It was concluded that the parallelizable SRA showed computational time saving with comparable results in a province-wide simulation. Using the same method, SRA can be generalized for performing a country-wide simulation. Thus, this parallel algorithm enables the possibility of using ABM for large-scale simulation with limited computational resources.

Cost-effectiveness of screening for hepatitis C in Canada

BACKGROUND

The seroprevalence of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection among Canadians is estimated at 0.3% to 0.9%. Of those with chronic HCV infection, 10% to 20% will experience advanced liver disease by 30 years of infection. Targeted screening seems a plausible strategy. We aimed to estimate the health and economic effects of various screening and treatment strategies for chronic HCV infection in Canada.

METHODS

We used a state-transition model to examine the cost-effectiveness of 4 screening strategies: no screening; screen and treat with pegylated interferon plus ribavarin; screen and treat with pegylated interferon and ribavarin-based direct-acting antiviral agents; and screen and treat with interferon-free direct-acting antivirals. We considered Canadian residents in 2 age groups: 25-64 and 45-64 years of age. We obtained model data from the literature. We predicted deaths related to chronic HCV infection, costs, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios.

RESULTS

We found that screening and treating would prevent at least 9 HCV-related deaths per 10,000 persons screened over the lifetime of the cohort. Screening was associated with QALY increases of 0.0032 to 0.0095 and cost increases of $124 to $338 per person, which translated to an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $34,359 to $44,034 per QALY gained, relative to no screening, depending on age group screened and antiviral therapy received.

INTERPRETATION

A selective one-time HCV screening program for people 25-64 or 45-64 years of age in Canada would likely be cost-effective. Identification of silent cases of chronic HCV infection and the offer of treatment when appropriate could extend the lives of Canadians at reasonable cost.

Risk factors for liver-related mortality in chronic hepatitis C patients: A deceased case-living control study

AIM: To investigate the risk factors for liver-related mortality in chronic hepatitis C (CHC) patients.

METHODS: All deceased CHC inpatient data were collected from the Beijing 302 Hospital clinical database, which includes more than 8250 CHC inpatients during the period from 2002 to 2012. The controls were matched to cases by age (± 2 years), sex and date of hospital admission (within the same year). Potential risk factors were included for the evaluation, and odds ratios (OR) and 95%CI were estimated using univariate (unadjusted) and multivariate (adjusted OR, AOR) conditional logistic regression. All statistical tests were two-sided. P values < 0.05 were considered statistically significant.

RESULTS: Based on examinations of 144 CHC-related deceased cases and 576 controls, we found that antiviral therapy with interferon-α was associated with a 47% decrease in the risk of hepatic mortality (AOR = 0.53, 95%CI: 0.28-0.99, P = 0.048). Additionally, the initial diagnostic stage of the disease (AOR = 2.89, 95%CI: 1.83-4.56 and P < 0.001 for liver cirrhosis/AOR = 8.82, 95%CI: 3.99-19.53 and P < 0.001 for HCC compared with CHC), diabetes (AOR = 2.35, 95%CI: 1.40-3.95, P = 0.001), hypertension (AOR = 1.76, 95%CI: 1.09-2.82, P = 0.020), alcohol consumption (AOR = 1.73, 95%CI: 1.03-2.81, P = 0.037) and HBsAg positivity (AOR = 22.28, 95%CI: 5.58-89.07, P < 0.001) were associated with a significant increase in the risk of liver-related mortality in CHC patients.

CONCLUSION: This study indicates that interferon-α treatment, the stage at the initial diagnosis of the disease and comorbidities are all independent risk factors for liver-related mortality in CHC patients.

Efficacy and cost-effectiveness of consensus interferon monotherapy with high-dose induction for hepatitis C patients with genotype 2

OBJECTIVE

Several treatment strategies for patients with chronic hepatitis C have been compared mainly in terms of their efficacy, and it has been found that pegylated interferon (IFN) plus ribavirin has become the standard therapy, but aged patients may not tolerate ribavirin and the cost-effectiveness of treatment should also be further considered. We conducted a study to evaluate the efficacy, safety, and cost-effectiveness of consensus IFN monotherapy with high-dose induction for patients with chronic hepatitis C in clinical practice.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

We consecutively enrolled 104 patients with chronic hepatitis C. Patients were scheduled to receive 12 or 18 μg of consensus IFN daily for 2 weeks, then three times a week for 22 weeks. Efficacy, safety, and cost-effectiveness were assessed. A Markov model was developed to investigate cost-effectiveness in patients with chronic hepatitis C treated by different IFN-based treatment strategies.

RESULTS

Of the 104 study patients, a sustained virological response (SVR) was achieved in 66 (63%). Logistic regression analysis revealed that genotype 2, lower hepatitis C virus RNA levels, and patient age were independently associated with SVR. The response rate was significantly higher in patients with genotype 2 (51/66, 77%) versus genotype 1 (15/38, 40%). Cost-effectiveness analysis in patients with genotype 2 revealed that high-dose induction with consensus IFN monotherapy was as highly cost-effective as pegylated IFN plus ribavirin.

CONCLUSION

Consensus IFN monotherapy with high-dose induction shows high efficacy and cost-effectiveness in chronic hepatitis C patients with genotype 2 infection. Thus, it may be a reliable alternative in aged patients and for those excluded from standard combination therapy.

Natural history of chronic hepatitis C: genotype 1 versus genotype 6

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Data on the natural history of chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) genotype 6 is lacking.

METHODS

We compared the natural history of 138 HCV genotype 1 patients (median age: 50) with 78 HCV genotype 6 patients (median age: 46.5). Baseline demographic data including gender, route of transmission, liver biochemistry, HCV RNA levels, and serial alanine aminotransferase (ALT) levels were compared. The rate of development of complications and mortality were also analyzed.

RESULTS

A total of 71.7% and 8.7% of genotype 1 patients were infected through blood transfusion and intravenous drug addiction, respectively, compared with 56.4% and 28.2% for genotype 6 patients, respectively (p<0.05). There were no differences in the baseline liver biochemistry in terms of ALT, albumin, bilirubin, alpha-fetoprotein (AFP), and HCV RNA levels between the two groups. Comparison of the proportion of normal and abnormal ALT levels between the two groups showed no statistical difference (p=0.121). There was also no statistical difference in the cumulative rate of development of cirrhotic complications and hepatocellular carcinoma (p=0.358) and mortality (p=0.649) between the two groups.

CONCLUSIONS

HCV genotype 1 patients were largely infected through blood transfusion, while a statistically larger proportion of genotype 6 patients were infected through intravenous drug injection. Both genotypes have comparable liver biochemistry, HCV viral load, and similar rates of development of cirrhotic complications and mortality.

Prognosis of hepatitis C virus-infected Canadian post-transfusion compensation claimant cohort

Accurate prognostic estimates were required to ensure the sufficiency of the $1.1 billion compensation fund established in 1998 to compensate Canadians who acquired hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection through blood transfusion between 1986 and 1990. This article reports the application of Markov modelling and epidemiological methods to estimate the prognosis of individuals who have claimed compensation. Clinical characteristics of the claimant cohort (n = 5004) were used to define the starting distribution. Annual stage-specific transition probabilities (F0-->F1, . . ., F3-->F4) were derived from the claimants, using the Markov maximum likelihood estimation method. HCV treatment efficacy was derived from the literature and practice patterns were estimated from a national survey. The estimated stage-specific transition probabilities of the cohort between F0-->F1, F1-->F2, F2-->F3 and F3-->F4 were 0.032, 0.137, 0.150 and 0.097 respectively. At 20 years after the index transfusion, approximately 10% of all living claimants (n = 3773) had cirrhosis and 0.5% developed hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). For nonhaemophilic patients, the predicted 20-year (2030) risk of HCV-related cirrhosis was 23%, and the risk of HCC and liver-related death was 7% and 11% respectively. Haemophilic patients who are younger and are frequently co-infected with human immunodeficiency virus would have higher 20-year risks of cirrhosis (37%), HCC (12%) and liver-related death (19%). Our results indicate that rates of progression to advanced liver disease in post-transfusion cohorts may be lower than previously reported. The Canadian post-transfusion cohort offers new and relevant prognostic information for post-transfusion HCV patients in Canada and is an invaluable resource to study the natural history and resource utilization of HCV-infected individuals in future studies.

Undiagnosed hepatitis C on the general medicine and trauma services of two urban hospitals

The inpatient medical service may be an important location to identify undiagnosed hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection. We conducted a cross-sectional HCV prevalence study in consecutive patients aged 18-65 admitted in a three-month period to two urban hospitals' general internal medicine and trauma services. Patient sera were anonymously screened for anti-HCV antibody with an enzyme-linked immunoassay and, when anti-HCV positive (+), for HIV. Health system records were examined for prior HCV testing or diagnosis or an HIV diagnosis then linked anonymously to test results. Multivariate logistic regression was used to examine associations of patient and health care factors with unknown HCV+ status. Of 786 unique patients tested (60.3% of all admitted patients), 62 (7.9%) were HCV+ without a prior HCV+ test or diagnosis while 61 patients (7.8%) tested HCV+ but had prior HCV+ test or diagnosis. Of 62 patients with unknown HCV+, 6 (9.7%) were HIV+ but only 3 had a prior HIV diagnosis; of 61 patients with known HCV+, all 9 (14.8%) HIV+ had been diagnosed. Among the 640 patients with prior unknown HCV status, an HCV+ test was strongly associated with age: 50-65 (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] 5.44, CI 2.20-13.48) and age 36-49 (AOR 4.65, CI 1.91-11.32) versus. 18-35. In this anonymous study, we could not obtain HCV risk factor data but the positive and negative predictive values of HCV testing all inpatients with an unknown HCV status were 99.3% and 99.0%, respectively. In similar urban general medicine and trauma services, broader efforts to test for HCV in inpatients aged 36-65 may be warranted.

Low uptake of treatment for hepatitis C virus infection in a large community-based study of inner city residents

Despite the availability of effective therapy for hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection, there are little data on the uptake of treatment. We evaluated factors associated with HCV infection and the uptake of HCV treatment in a large community-based inner city cohort in Vancouver, Canada. The Community Health and Safety Evaluation is a cohort study of inner city residents recruited from January 2003 to June 2004. HIV and HCV status and information on prescriptions for HCV treatment were determined through linkage with provincial databases. HCV prevalence was calculated and factors associated with HCV infection were identified. HCV treatment uptake and incidence of HCV infection from January 2000 to December 2004 were expressed in terms of person-years of observation. Among 2913 individuals, HCV antibody testing was performed in 2118 and the HCV seroprevalence was 64.2% (1360 of 2118). In total, 1.1% of HCV antibody-positive individuals (15 of 1360) initiated treatment for HCV infection from January 2000 to December 2004 [0.28 cases per 100 person-years (95% CI, 0.15-0.46)]. Three of 15 (20.0%) treated individuals achieved a sustained virological response. During the same period, the incidence of HCV infection was 7.26 cases (95% CI, 5.72-8.80) per 100 person-years. Overall, the rate of new HCV seroconversions in this cohort in the study period was about 25 times the rate of HCV treatment uptake. There are extremely low rates of HCV treatment initiation and very limited effectiveness, despite a high prevalence of HCV infection in this large community-based cohort of inner city residents with access to universal healthcare.

Health care costs of persons with newly diagnosed hepatitis C virus: a population-based, observational study

The objective of this paper was to conduct an analysis of the health services costs for persons who have been diagnosed with hepatitis C, from the time of diagnosis. Data were based on 1230 persons diagnosed with hepatitis C in 1998 in the Capital Health region of Alberta. Identifiers and dates of diagnosis were sent to Alberta Health and Wellness where records were linked to those of physician visits and billings, as well as hospital (inpatient and outpatient) visit records. Costs were assigned to all visits, and data were analysed for one pre- and two post-diagnosis years. Total cost per person increased from $2630 (Canadian) to $3514 between the pre- and first post-diagnosis year. They then returned to $2694 in the second post-diagnosis year. Liver-related costs were a low portion of the total in all periods, though they increased following diagnosis. Mental-health related costs were the largest component. Observational data present a more balanced picture of the costs of persons with hepatitis C, though most current estimates are not based on such data. Our results indicate that, when analysed within the picture of the entire person, liver-related costs (which have been the focus of most studies to date) are the tip of the iceberg.

Disease progression in chronic hepatitis C: modifiable and nonmodifiable factors

The hepatic complications of chronic hepatitis C (CHC) usually occur only after progression to cirrhosis has taken place. Progression to cirrhosis, however, is extremely variable and depends on a broad set of host and viral factors that modify the rate at which fibrosis develops in a given individual. Despite their inherent limitations, studies of the natural history of CHC have identified several nonmodifiable factors associated with disease progression. These include age at acquisition of infection, sex, and race. More recent reports suggest important roles for host genetic polymorphisms and viral factors. Of greater immediate relevance to patients and their clinicians are the potentially modifiable factors, which include excessive alcohol consumption; smoking (tobacco and marijuana); insulin resistance; and coinfection with hepatitis B virus, human immunodeficiency virus type 1, or schistosomiasis. Unfortunately, to date, there are no reliable predictive models that can accurately estimate the risk of CHC disease progression.

Barriers associated with the treatment of hepatitis C virus infection among illicit drug users

BACKGROUND

Illicit drug users account for the majority of cases of HCV infection in the developed world, but few have received treatment.

METHODS

We evaluated barriers to initiating HCV treatment -- including general treatment willingness -- and factors associated with these among HCV infected illicit drug users. Participants were recruited via convenience sampling from two community clinics in Canada. Individuals age >18 years with a history of illicit drug use completed interviewer-administered surveys. Those reporting positive HCV testing underwent additional questioning on willingness, uptake and barriers to treatment for HCV.

RESULTS

Of 188 HCV positive illicit drug users, 16% (n=30) had received treatment for HCV. Factors associated with a decreased treatment uptake included current heroin use and HIV/HCV co-infection. Among those not having received therapy, 77% (117/153) indicated a willingness to receive HCV treatment. Factors associated with treatment willingness included not being infected with HIV, having not recently used drugs by injection and having reported physical health problems. Among those not having sought HCV treatment (n=107), the major reasons for not doing so were: lack of information about HCV or knowledge that treatment was available (23%), the absence of symptoms (20%) and the perceived side effects of treatment (14%).

CONCLUSIONS

Among illicit drug users attending inner city clinics, we have observed a low uptake of HCV treatment, but a high willingness to receive therapy. An increased focus on improving education about the long-term consequences of HCV and the availability of effective treatment are important components for expanding HCV treatment among illicit drug users.

The hepatitis C sequence database in Los Alamos

The hepatitis C virus (HCV) is a significant public health threat worldwide. The virus is highly variable and evolves rapidly, making it an elusive target for the immune system and for vaccine and drug design. Presently, ∼50 000 HCV sequences have been published. A central website that provides annotated sequences and analysis tools will be helpful to HCV scientists worldwide. The HCV sequence database collects and annotates sequence data, and provides them to the public via a website that contains a user-friendly search interface and a large number of sequence analysis tools, following the model of the highly regarded and widely used Los Alamos HIV database. The HCV website can be accessed via http://hcv.lanl.gov and http://hcv-db.org.

Management of solitary 1 cm to 2 cm liver nodules in patients with compensated cirrhosis: a decision analysis

OBJECTIVES

Current guidelines, based on expert opinion, recommend that suspected 1 cm to 2 cm hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) detected on screening be biopsied and, if positive, treated (eg, resection or transplantation). Alternative strategies are immediate treatment or observation until disease progression occurs.

METHODS

A Markov decision model was developed that compared three management strategies - immediate resection, biopsy and resection if positive, and ultrasound surveillance every three months until disease progression - for a single 1 cm to 2 cm liver nodule suspicious for HCC following ultrasound screening and computed tomography confirmation. The cohort included 55-year-old patients with compensated cirrhosis and no significant comorbidities. The model used in the present study incorporated the probabilities of false-positive and false-negative results, needle-track seeding, HCC recurrence, cirrhosis progression and death. The quality-adjusted life expectancy (LE) and the unadjusted LE were evaluated and the model's strength was assessed with sensitivity analyses.

RESULTS

In the base case analysis, biopsy, resection and surveillance yielded an unadjusted LE of 60.5, 59.7 and 56.6 months, respectively, and a quality-adjusted LE of 46.6, 45.6 and 43.8 months, respectively. In probabilistic sensitivity analyses, biopsy was the preferred strategy 69.5% of the time, resection 30.5% of the time and surveillance never. Resection was the optimal decision if the sensitivity of biopsy was very low (less than 0.45) or if the accuracy of the imaging tests resulted in a high percentage of HCC-positive patients (greater than 76%) in the screened cohort, as with expert interpretation of triphasic computed tomography.

CONCLUSIONS

The present model suggests that biopsy is the preferred management strategy for these patients. When postimaging probability of HCC is high or pathology expertise is lacking, resection is the best alternative. Surveillance is never the optimal strategy.

Hepatitis C, illicit drug use and public health: does Canada really have a viable plan?

Some 300,000 individuals are infected with the hepatitis C virus (HCV) in Canada. HCV infection is associated with major morbidity, mortality and health care costs; these indicators are projected to rise over the next decade. The vast majority of prevalent and incident HCV infections in Canada are illicit drug use-related; thus, the HCV disease burden can only be addressed through interventions targeting this primary risk factor. Both preventive (e.g., needle exchange, methadone treatment) and therapeutic (e.g., the accessibility of HCV treatment for illicit drug users) interventions aimed at HCV in illicit drug users have been broadly expanded in Canada in recent years. However, evidence suggests that existing preventive measures only offer limited effectiveness in reducing HCV risk exposure. Also, due to restricted resources, treatment for HCV currently only reaches an extremely small proportion (i.e., <5%) of HCV-infected drug users. Thus, on the basis of current HCV incidence as well as given interventions and their impact, Canada is not achieving a net reduction in the prevalence of HCV-related to illicit drug use. In order to reduce the HCV disease burden, Canada needs to reconsider the scope, delivery and resourcing of both preventive and treatment interventions targeting the primary risk population of illicit drug users.

Immunopathogenesis in hepatitis C virus cirrhosis

HCV (hepatitis C virus) has a high propensity to persist and to cause chronic hepatitis C, eventually leading to cirrhosis. Since HCV itself is not cytopathic, liver damage in chronic hepatitis C is commonly attributed to immune-mediated mechanisms. HCV proteins interact with several pathways in the host's immune response and disrupt pathogen-associated pattern recognition pathways, interfere with cellular immunoregulation via CD81 binding and subvert the activity of NK (natural killer) cells as well as CD4(+) and CD8(+) T-cells. Finally, HCV-specific T-cells become increasingly unresponsive and apparently disappear, owing to several possible mechanisms, such as escape mutations in critical viral epitopes, lack of sufficient help, clonal anergy or expansion of regulatory T-cells. The role of neutralizing antibodies remains uncertain, although it is still possible that humoral immunity contributes to bystander damage of virally coated cells via antibody-dependent cellular cytotoxicity. Cytotoxic lymphocytes kill HCV-infected cells via the perforin/granzyme pathway, but also release Fas ligand and inflammatory cytokines such as IFNgamma (interferon gamma). Release of soluble effector molecules helps to control HCV infection, but may also destroy uninfected liver cells and can attract further lymphocytes without HCV specificity to invade the liver. Bystander damage of these non-specific inflammatory cells will expand the tissue damage triggered by HCV infection and ultimately activate fibrogenesis. A clear understanding of these processes will eventually help to develop novel treatment strategies for HCV liver disease, independent from direct inhibition of HCV replication.

Cost-effectiveness of hematologic growth factors for anemia occurring during hepatitis C combination therapy

In hepatitis C virus (HCV)-infected patients who develop anemia during combination therapy, erythropoietic growth factors maintain higher drug treatment levels compared to ribavirin dose reduction, which may lead to an increase in treatment response rates. This study estimated the cost-effectiveness of growth factor therapy in maintaining anemic HCV-infected patients on target drug levels during combination therapy. A decision analysis using a Markov model was developed with 7 health states: Sustained viral response, chronic HCV, compensated cirrhosis, decompensated cirrhosis, hepatocellular carcinoma, liver transplantation, and death. Data sources included population-based studies of growth factor therapy, previously published estimates of costs and natural history of hepatitis C, and recent prospective studies. Our reference case was a 45-year-old Caucasian man with HCV infection (genotype 1, 2, or 3) who developed anemia while undergoing combination therapy with ribavirin and pegylated interferon. We compared growth factor injections (darbepoetin alpha or epoetin alpha) during combination therapy with standard ribavirin dose reduction. Compared to a ribavirin dose reduction strategy, the cost of darbepoetin per additional quality-adjusted life-year was 34,793 dollars for genotype 1 and 33,832 dollars for genotypes 2 or 3 versus 60,600 dollars and 64,311 dollars for epoetin. For all genotypes, the results were sensitive to changes in the cure rates of HCV therapy, the utility of chronic HCV, the costs of growth factors, and the age at which therapy is begun. In conclusion, use of erythropoietic growth factors, specifically darbepoetin, for patients with anemia occurring during HCV combination therapy appears to be cost-effective for genotypes 1, 2, or 3.

Hepatitis C databases, principles and utility to researchers

Part of the effort to develop hepatitis C-specific drugs a nd vaccines is the study of genetic variability of allpublicly available HCV sequences. Three HCV databases are currently available to aid this effort and to provide additional insight into the basic biology, immunology, and evolution of the virus. The Japanese HCV database (http://s2as02.genes.nig.ac.jp) gives access to a genomic mapping of sequences as well as their phylogenetic relationships. The European HCV database (http://euhcvdb.ibcp.fr) offers access to a computer-annotated set of sequences and molecular models of HCV proteins and focuses on protein sequence, structure and function analysis. The HCV database at the Los Alamos National Laboratory in the United States (http://hcv.lanl.gov) provides access to a manually annotated sequence database and a database of immunological epitopes which contains concise descriptions of experimental results. In this paper, we briefly describe each of these databases and their associated websites and tools, and give some examples of their use in furthering HCV research.

Predictors of antiviral therapy in a post-transfusion cohort of hepatitis C patients

INTRODUCTION

In the past, antiviral therapy has been given to 15% to 30% of patients infected with hepatitis C virus (HCV). The efficacy of therapy has recently improved with the addition of ribavirin and pegylated interferon. The aim of the present study was to identify the clinical, socioeconomic and health-system predictors of antiviral treatment for HCV.

METHODS

A retrospective analysis of compensation claims data of patients who acquired HCV through blood transfusions between 1986 and 1990 was performed. The patients consisted of 2456 Canadian HCV-positive individuals. The authors reviewed narrative comments from physicians, and constructed univariate and multivariate logistic regression models, using receipt of antiviral therapy with interferon or interferon/ribavirin as the primary outcome.

RESULTS

Of the 2456 patients, approximately 30% appeared to be eligible, but only 16% received treatment. Univariate analyses suggested that the disease severity, age, HIV status and province of residence were associated with the likelihood of receiving treatment (P<0.01). The final, multivariable model indicated that in patients with HCV: intermediate disease severity (eg, fibrosis, P<0.0001); middle age (P<0.0001); HIV-negative status (P<0.0001); and province of residence (Quebec, P<0.0001; and Saskatchewan, P<0.0001) were independent predictors of treatment. Narrative comments of physicians emphasized the importance of age, HIV status and patient preferences in clinical decision-making.

DISCUSSION

Given the efficacy and cost-effectiveness of current antiviral therapy, treatment rates of HCV patients may be suboptimal. Further work is required to understand barriers to treatment related to geography, organization of medical care, age, medical provider and patient preferences.

Treatment of hepatitis C

The combination of pegylated interferon alpha and ribavirin has improved treatment success rates in patients with hepatitis C with sustained response rates of just over 50% overall and more than 70% for those with genotypes 2 and 3. This article reviews the use of combination therapy, contraindications, factors influencing response and describes approaches to specific patient groups.

Prevention of hepatitis C virus-related hepatocellular carcinoma

The incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is increasing in North America, Europe, and Japan, caused largely by the high rates of chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection. In such individuals, the risk factors for developing HCC are advancing age, male gender, worsening hepatic fibrosis (particularly cirrhosis), and greater degrees of hepatic inflammation. Additional, potentially modifiable risk factors include coinfection with hepatitis B, excessive alcohol use, iron overload, and diabetes/obesity. Thus, approaches to preventing HCC should focus on eradicating HCV infection, responsible for the inflammation and fibrosis, and also on treating or reducing the modifiable risks, such as through hepatitis B vaccination, decreasing alcohol use, phlebotomy for iron overload, and weight control and diabetes prevention. These approaches have yet to be proven effective. Meta-analyses of standard interferon monotherapy trials in patients with HCV-related cirrhosis suggest that interferon has a small but significant effect on reducing HCC risk, particularly in those who achieve a sustained response. Other studies indicate that the reduction in HCC is greatest if a response is achieved before cirrhosis develops. Secondary prevention when HCC has been ablated or resected may be partially effected with interferon treatment or oral polyprenoic acid. No long-term studies of the effect of the currently recommended regimen of peginterferon and ribavirin have been reported, and no current trials include untreated control groups. Studies of maintenance peginterferon therapy in virological nonresponders are under way in the hope of proving that this approach is effective in decreasing the risk of HCC.

The Los Alamos hepatitis C sequence database

MOTIVATION

The hepatitis C virus (HCV) is a significant threat to public health worldwide. The virus is highly variable and evolves rapidly, making it an elusive target for the immune system and for vaccine and drug design. At present, some 30 000 HCV sequences have been published. A central website that provides annotated sequences and analysis tools will be helpful to HCV scientists worldwide.

RESULTS

The HCV sequence database collects and annotates sequence data and provides them to the public via a website that contains a user-friendly search interface and a large number of sequence analysis tools, based on the model of the highly regarded Los Alamos HIV database. The HCV sequence database was officially launched in September 2003. Since then, its usage has steadily increased and is now at an average of approximately 280 visits per day from distinct IP addresses.

AVAILABILITY

The HCV website can be accessed via http://hcv.lanl.gov and http://hcv-db.org.