Some Health States Are Better Than Others: Using Health State Rank Order to Improve Probabilistic Analyses

Cost-effectiveness of nirsevimab and palivizumab for respiratory syncytial virus prophylaxis in preterm infants 29-34 6/7 weeks' gestation in the United States

BACKGROUND

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) hospitalizations have increased since the 2014 guideline update recommended against the use of palivizumab for preterm infants born ≥29 0/7 weeks' gestational age (GA) without additional risk factors. A novel drug candidate, nirsevimab, has been developed for this population. We analyzed the cost-effectiveness of palivizumab/nirsevimab vs. no prophylaxis in this population.

METHODS

A hybrid-Markov model predicted the RSV clinical course in the first year of life and sequelae in the subsequent four years for preterm infants from the healthcare and societal perspectives. Model parameters were derived from the literature. We calculated costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) to produce an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) evaluated at a willingness-to-pay threshold of $150,000/QALY. Sensitivity analyses assessed model robustness. A threshold analysis examined nirsevimab pricing uncertainty.

RESULTS

Compared to no prophylaxis, palivizumab costs $9572 and $9584 more from the healthcare and societal perspectives, respectively, with 0.0019 QALYs gained per patient over five years, resulting in ICERs >$5 million per QALY from each perspective. Results were robust to parameter uncertainties; probabilistic sensitivity analysis revealed that no prophylaxis had a 100% probability of being cost-effective. The threshold analysis suggested that nirsevimab is not cost-effective when compared to no prophylaxis if the price exceeds $1962 from a societal perspective.

CONCLUSION

Palivizumab is dominated by no prophylaxis for preterm infants 29 0/7-34 6/7 weeks' GA with no additional risk factors. Relevant stakeholders should consider alternatives to palivizumab for this population that are both effective and economical.

Population-Wide Screening for Chronic Kidney Disease : A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis

BACKGROUND

Sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 (SGLT2) inhibitors have the potential to alter the natural history of chronic kidney disease (CKD), and they should be included in cost-effectiveness analyses of screening for CKD.

OBJECTIVE

To determine the cost-effectiveness of adding population-wide screening for CKD.

DESIGN

Markov cohort model.

DATA SOURCES

NHANES (National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey), U.S. Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services data, cohort studies, and randomized clinical trials, including the DAPA-CKD (Dapagliflozin and Prevention of Adverse Outcomes in Chronic Kidney Disease) trial.

TARGET POPULATION

Adults.

TIME HORIZON

Lifetime.

PERSPECTIVE

Health care sector.

INTERVENTION

Screening for albuminuria with and without adding SGLT2 inhibitors to the current standard of care for CKD.

OUTCOME MEASURES

Costs, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs), all discounted at 3% annually.

RESULTS OF BASE-CASE ANALYSIS

One-time CKD screening at age 55 years had an ICER of $86 300 per QALY gained by increasing costs from $249 800 to $259 000 and increasing QALYs from 12.61 to 12.72; this was accompanied by a decrease in the incidence of kidney failure requiring dialysis or kidney transplant of 0.29 percentage points and an increase in life expectancy from 17.29 to 17.45 years. Other options were also cost-effective. During ages 35 to 75 years, screening once prevented dialysis or transplant in 398 000 people and screening every 10 years until age 75 years cost less than $100 000 per QALY gained.

RESULTS OF SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS

When SGLT2 inhibitors were 30% less effective, screening every 10 years during ages 35 to 75 years cost between $145 400 and $182 600 per QALY gained, and price reductions would be required for screening to be cost-effective.

LIMITATION

The efficacy of SGLT2 inhibitors was derived from a single randomized controlled trial.

CONCLUSION

Screening adults for albuminuria to identify CKD could be cost-effective in the United States.

PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE

Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality, Veterans Affairs Office of Academic Affiliations, and National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases.

An Introductory Tutorial on Cohort State-Transition Models in R Using a Cost-Effectiveness Analysis Example

Decision models can combine information from different sources to simulate the long-term consequences of alternative strategies in the presence of uncertainty. A cohort state-transition model (cSTM) is a decision model commonly used in medical decision making to simulate the transitions of a hypothetical cohort among various health states over time. This tutorial focuses on time-independent cSTM, in which transition probabilities among health states remain constant over time. We implement time-independent cSTM in R, an open-source mathematical and statistical programming language. We illustrate time-independent cSTMs using a previously published decision model, calculate costs and effectiveness outcomes, and conduct a cost-effectiveness analysis of multiple strategies, including a probabilistic sensitivity analysis. We provide open-source code in R to facilitate wider adoption. In a second, more advanced tutorial, we illustrate time-dependent cSTMs.

Simulating Study Data to Support Expected Value of Sample Information Calculations: A Tutorial

The expected value of sample information (EVSI) can be used to prioritize avenues for future research and design studies that support medical decision making and offer value for money spent. EVSI is calculated based on 3 key elements. Two of these, a probabilistic model-based economic evaluation and updating model uncertainty based on simulated data, have been frequently discussed in the literature. By contrast, the third element, simulating data from the proposed studies, has received little attention. This tutorial contributes to bridging this gap by providing a step-by-step guide to simulating study data for EVSI calculations. We discuss a general-purpose algorithm for simulating data and demonstrate its use to simulate 3 different outcome types. We then discuss how to induce correlations in the generated data, how to adjust for common issues in study implementation such as missingness and censoring, and how individual patient data from previous studies can be leveraged to undertake EVSI calculations. For all examples, we provide comprehensive code written in the R language and, where possible, Excel spreadsheets in the supplementary materials. This tutorial facilitates practical EVSI calculations and allows EVSI to be used to prioritize research and design studies.

Cost-Effectiveness and Quality-Adjusted Survival of Watch and Wait After Complete Response to Chemoradiotherapy for Rectal Cancer

BACKGROUND

Neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (CRT) followed by total mesorectal excision (TME) is the standard treatment for locally advanced rectal cancer. There is interest in deescalating local therapy after a clinical complete response to CRT. We hypothesized that a watch-and-wait (WW) strategy offers comparable cancer-specific survival, superior quality-adjusted survival, and reduced cost compared with upfront TME.

METHODS

We developed a decision-analytic model to compare WW, low anterior resection, and abdominoperineal resection for patients achieving a clinical complete response to CRT. Rates of local regrowth, pelvic recurrence, and distant metastasis were derived from series comparing WW with TME after pathologic complete response. Lifetime incremental costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALY) were calculated between strategies, and sensitivity analyses were performed to study model uncertainty.

RESULTS

The base case 5-year cancer-specific survival was 93.5% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 91.5% to 94.9%) on a WW program compared with 95.9% (95% CI = 93.6% to 97.4%) after upfront TME. WW was dominant relative to low anterior resection, with cost savings of $28 500 (95% CI = $22 200 to $39 000) and incremental QALY of 0.527 (95% CI = 0.138 to 1.125). WW was also dominant relative to abdominoperineal resection, with a cost savings of $32 100 (95% CI = $21 800 to $49 200) and incremental QALY of 0.601 (95% CI = 0.213 to 1.208). WW remained dominant in sensitivity analysis unless the rate of surgical salvage fell to 73.0%.

CONCLUSIONS

Using current multi-institutional recurrence estimates, we observed comparable cancer-specific survival, superior quality-adjusted survival, and decreased costs with WW compared with upfront TME. Upfront TME was preferred when surgical salvage rates were low.

Prioritizing Additional Data Collection to Reduce Decision Uncertainty in the HIV/AIDS Response in 6 US Cities: A Value of Information Analysis

OBJECTIVES

The ambitious goals of the US Ending the HIV Epidemic initiative will require a targeted, context-specific public health response. Model-based economic evaluation provides useful guidance for decision making while characterizing decision uncertainty. We aim to quantify the value of eliminating uncertainty about different parameters in selecting combination implementation strategies to reduce the public health burden of HIV/AIDS in 6 US cities and identify future data collection priorities.

METHODS

We used a dynamic compartmental HIV transmission model developed for 6 US cities to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of a range of combination implementation strategies. Using a metamodeling approach with nonparametric and deep learning methods, we calculated the expected value of perfect information, representing the maximum value of further research to eliminate decision uncertainty, and the expected value of partial perfect information for key groups of parameters that would be collected together in practice.

RESULTS

The population expected value of perfect information ranged from $59 683 (Miami) to $54 108 679 (Los Angeles). The rank ordering of expected value of partial perfect information on key groups of parameters were largely consistent across cities and highest for parameters pertaining to HIV risk behaviors, probability of HIV transmission, health service engagement, HIV-related mortality, health utility weights, and healthcare costs. Los Angeles was an exception, where parameters on retention in pre-exposure prophylaxis ranked highest in contributing to decision uncertainty.

CONCLUSIONS

Funding additional data collection on HIV/AIDS may be warranted in Baltimore, Los Angeles, and New York City. Value of information analysis should be embedded into decision-making processes on funding future research and public health intervention.

Cost-effectiveness of Active Identification and Subsequent Colonoscopy Surveillance of Lynch Syndrome Cases

BACKGROUND & AIMS

The province of Ontario, Canada is considering immunohistochemical followed by cascade analyses of all patients who received a diagnosis of colorectal cancer (CRC) at an age younger than 70 years to identify individuals with Lynch syndrome. We evaluated the costs and benefits of testing for Lynch syndrome and determined the optimal surveillance interval for first-degree relatives (FDRs) found to have Lynch syndrome.

METHODS

We developed a patient flow diagram to determine costs and yield of immunohistochemical testing for Lynch syndrome in CRC cases and, for those found to have Lynch syndrome, their FDRs, accounting for realistic uptake. Subsequently, we used the MISCAN-colon model to compare costs and benefits of annual, biennial, and triennial surveillance in FDRs identified with Lynch syndrome vs colonoscopy screening every 10 years (usual care for individuals without a diagnosis of Lynch syndrome).

RESULTS

Testing 1000 CRC cases was estimated to identify 20 CRC index cases and 29 FDRs with Lynch syndrome at a cost of $310,274. Despite the high cost of Lynch syndrome tests, offering the FDRs with Lynch syndrome biennial colonoscopy surveillance was cost-effective at $8785 per life-year gained compared with usual care because of a substantial increase in life-years gained (+122%) and cost savings in CRC care. Triennial surveillance was more costly and less effective, and annual surveillance showed limited additional benefit compared with biennial surveillance.

CONCLUSIONS

Immunohistochemical testing for Lynch syndrome in persons younger than 70 years who received a diagnosis of CRC and then testing FDRs of those found to have Lynch syndrome provide a good balance between costs and long-term benefits. Colonoscopy surveillance every 2 years is the optimal surveillance interval for patients with Lynch syndrome.

Cost-effectiveness of Digital Breast Tomosynthesis in Population-based Breast Cancer Screening: A Probabilistic Sensitivity Analysis

BackgroundDigital breast tomosynthesis (DBT) is a promising screening test, but its outcomes and cost-effectiveness remain uncertain.PurposeTo determine if biennial DBT is cost-effective in a screening setting, when compared with digital mammography (DM) in the Netherlands, and to quantify the uncertainty.Materials and MethodsIn this study, performed from March 2018 to February 2019, the MIcrosimulation SCreening ANalysis model was used to conduct a probabilistic sensitivity analysis (PSA), consisting of 10 000 model runs with 1 000 000 women simulated per run. The Bayesian Cost-Effectiveness Analysis package and the Sheffield Accelerated Value of Information tool were used to process PSA outcomes. Two simulated cohorts born in 1970 were invited to undergo biennial screening between ages 50 and 74 years-one cohort was assigned to DM screening, and one was assigned to DBT screening. DM input parameters were based on data from the Dutch breast cancer screening program. DBT parameters were based on literature and expert opinion. Willingness-to-pay thresholds of €20 000 ($22 000) and €35 000 ($38 500) per life-year gained (LYG) were considered. Effects and costs were discounted at 3.5% per year.ResultsDBT resulted in a gain of 13 additional life-years per 1000 women invited to screening (7% increase, 13 of 193), followed over lifetime, compared with DM and led to 2% (four of 159) fewer false-positive results. DBT screening led to incremental discounted lifetime effects of 5.09 LYGs (95% confidence interval: -0.80, 9.70) and an increase in lifetime costs of €137 555 ($151 311) per 1000 women (95% confidence interval: €31 093 [$34 202], €263 537 [$289 891]) compared with DM, resulting in a mean incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of €27 023 ($29 725) per LYG. The probability of DBT being more cost-effective was 0.36 at €20 000 and 0.66 at €35 000 per LYG.ConclusionSwitching from digital mammography to biennial digital breast tomosynthesis is not cost-effective at a willingness-to-pay threshold of €20 000 per life-year gained, but digital breast tomosynthesis has a higher probability of being more cost-effective than digital mammography at a threshold of €35 000 per life-year gained.© RSNA, 2020Online supplemental material is available for this article.See also the editorial by Slanetz in this issue.

Calculating the Expected Value of Sample Information in Practice: Considerations from 3 Case Studies

Background. Investing efficiently in future research to improve policy decisions is an important goal. Expected value of sample information (EVSI) can be used to select the specific design and sample size of a proposed study by assessing the benefit of a range of different studies. Estimating EVSI with the standard nested Monte Carlo algorithm has a notoriously high computational burden, especially when using a complex decision model or when optimizing over study sample sizes and designs. Recently, several more efficient EVSI approximation methods have been developed. However, these approximation methods have not been compared, and therefore their comparative performance across different examples has not been explored. Methods. We compared 4 EVSI methods using 3 previously published health economic models. The examples were chosen to represent a range of real-world contexts, including situations with multiple study outcomes, missing data, and data from an observational rather than a randomized study. The computational speed and accuracy of each method were compared. Results. In each example, the approximation methods took minutes or hours to achieve reasonably accurate EVSI estimates, whereas the traditional Monte Carlo method took weeks. Specific methods are particularly suited to problems where we wish to compare multiple proposed sample sizes, when the proposed sample size is large, or when the health economic model is computationally expensive. Conclusions. As all the evaluated methods gave estimates similar to those given by traditional Monte Carlo, we suggest that EVSI can now be efficiently computed with confidence in realistic examples. No systematically superior EVSI computation method exists as the properties of the different methods depend on the underlying health economic model, data generation process, and user expertise.

Cost-effectiveness of population-level proactive tobacco cessation outreach among socio-economically disadvantaged smokers: evaluation of a randomized control trial

AIMS

To estimate the cost-effectiveness at population-level of the OPT-IN proactive tobacco cessation outreach program for adult smokers enrolled in publicly funded health insurance plans for low-income persons (e.g. Medicaid).

DESIGN

Cost-effectiveness analysis using a state transition model based on data from the Offering Proactive Treatment Intervention (OPT-IN) randomized control trial.

SETTING

The trial was conducted in Minnesota, USA, and the economic analysis was conducted from the Medicaid program perspective.

PARTICIPANTS

Data were used from 2406 smokers who were randomized into the intervention or comparator groups.

INTERVENTION AND COMPARATOR

The intervention was comprised of proactive outreach (mailed invitation and telephone calls) and free cessation treatment (nicotine replacement therapy and intensive telephone counseling). The comparator was usual care, which comprised access to a primary care physician, insurance coverage of Food and Drug Administration (FDA)-approved smoking cessation medications and the state's telephone quitline.

MEASUREMENTS

Smoking status, quality of life and health-care use at varying times, including at baseline and 1 year.

FINDINGS

The OPT-IN program cost an average of $84 per participant greater than the comparator. One year after randomization, the population-level, 6-month prolonged smoking abstinence rate was 16.5% in the proactive outreach intervention group and 12.1% in the usual care group (P < 0.05). The model projected that the proactive outreach intervention added $78 in life-time cost and generated 0.005 additional quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), with an expected incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $4231 per QALY. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis found that the proactive outreach intervention would be cost-effective against a willingness-to-pay threshold of $50 000/QALY approximately 68% of the time.

CONCLUSIONS

Population-level proactive tobacco treatment with personal telephone outreach was effective in achieving higher population-level quit rates and was cost-effective at various willingness-to-pay thresholds, compared with usual care (i.e. reactive treatment). Taken together with prior research, population-level proactive tobacco cessation outreach programs are judged to be highly cost-effective over the long term.

Operative Versus Nonoperative Management of Appendicitis: A Long-Term Cost Effectiveness Analysis

Background. Recent clinical trials suggest that nonoperative management (NOM) of patients with acute, uncomplicated appendicitis is an acceptable alternative to surgery. However, limited data exist comparing the long-term cost-effectiveness of nonoperative treatment strategies. Design. We constructed a Markov model comparing the cost-effectiveness of three treatment strategies for uncomplicated appendicitis: 1) laparoscopic appendectomy, 2) inpatient NOM, and 3) outpatient NOM. The model assessed lifetime costs and outcomes from a third-party payer perspective. The preferred strategy was the one yielding the greatest utility without exceeding a $50,000 willingness-to-pay threshold. Results. Outpatient NOM cost $233,700 over a lifetime; laparoscopic appendectomy cost $2500 more while inpatient NOM cost $7300 more. Outpatient NOM generated 24.9270 quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), while laparoscopic appendectomy and inpatient NOM yielded 0.0709 and 0.0005 additional QALYs, respectively. Laparoscopic appendectomy was cost-effective compared with outpatient NOM (incremental cost-effectiveness ratio $32,300 per QALY gained); inpatient NOM was dominated by laparoscopic appendectomy. In one-way sensitivity analyses, the preferred strategy changed when varying perioperative mortality, probability of appendiceal malignancy or recurrent appendicitis after NOM, probability of a complicated recurrence, and appendectomy cost. A two-way sensitivity analysis showed that the rates of NOM failure and appendicitis recurrence described in randomized trials exceeded the values required for NOM to be preferred. Limitations. There are limited NOM data to generate long-term model probabilities. Health state utilities were often drawn from single studies and may significantly influence model outcomes. Conclusion. Laparoscopic appendectomy is a cost-effective treatment for acute uncomplicated appendicitis over a lifetime time horizon. Inpatient NOM was never the preferred strategy in the scenarios considered here. These results emphasize the importance of considering long-term costs and outcomes when evaluating NOM.

Cost-effectiveness of novel regimens for Chinese patients with chronic hepatitis C

OBJECTIVE

Direct-acting antiviral agents (DAAs) have been approved for treating hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection in China. However, they are substantially more expensive. The current analysis will investigate the cost-effectiveness of novel regimens compared with pegylated interferon and ribavirin (PR) therapies for informing Chinese decision-makers.

METHODS

A Markov model was developed to measure economic and health outcomes of novel regimens for genotype 1b, 2, 3, and 6 HCV infections compared with PR treatment. Clinical, cost, and utility inputs were gathered from published sources. Discounted quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), costs, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) are shown. The uncertainty was facilitated by one-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses.

RESULTS

For genotype 1b HCV infection, the combination of paritaprevir, ritonavir, ombitasvir and dasabuvir was cost-saving compared with four competing alternatives. The ICERs of sofosbuvir plus ribavirin for genotypes 2 and 3 were lower than the threshold ($18,234/QALY). Among available strategies for patients with genotype 6, sofosbuvir in combination with ribavirin was the cost-saving alternative compared with PR. The results were robust to sensitivity analyses.

CONCLUSIONS

For both genotype 1b and 6 HCV infections in the context of Chinese patients, there were combinations of DAAs that were cost-saving compared with the usual PR treatment, and cost-effective for genotypes 2 and 3.

Cost-effectiveness of Screening for Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma among Asian American Men in the United States

OBJECTIVE

Most patients with nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) in the United States are diagnosed with stage III-IV disease. Screening for NPC in endemic areas results in earlier detection and improved outcomes. We examined the cost-effectiveness of screening for NPC with plasma Epstein-Barr virus DNA among Asian American men in the United States.

STUDY DESIGN

We used a Markov cohort model to estimate discounted life-years, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), costs, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios for screening as compared with usual care without screening.

SETTING

The base case analysis considered onetime screening for 50-year-old Asian American men.

SUBJECTS AND METHODS

Confirmatory testing was magnetic resonance imaging and nasopharyngoscopy. Cancer-specific outcomes, health utility values, and costs were determined from cancer registries and the published literature.

RESULTS

For Asian American men, usual care without screening resulted in the detection of NPC at stages I, II, III-IVB, and IVC among 6%, 29%, 54%, and 11% of those with cancer, respectively, whereas screening resulted in earlier detection with a stage distribution of 43%, 24%, 32%, and 1%. This corresponded to an additional 0.00055 QALYs gained at a cost of $63 per person: an incremental cost of $113,341 per QALY gained. In probabilistic sensitivity analysis, screening Asian American men was cost-effective at $100,000 per QALY gained in 35% of samples.

CONCLUSION

Although screening for NPC with plasma Epstein-Barr virus DNA for 50-year-old Asian American men may result in earlier detection, in this study it was unlikely to be cost-effective. Screening may be reasonable for certain subpopulations at higher risk for NPC, but clinical studies are necessary before implementation.

Comparing Simultaneous Liver-Kidney Transplant Strategies: A Modified Cost-Effectiveness Analysis

BACKGROUND

The proportion of patients with kidney failure at time of liver transplantation is at a historic high in the United States. The optimal timing of kidney transplantation with respect to the liver transplant is unknown.

METHODS

We used a modified cost-effectiveness analysis to compare 4 strategies: the old system ("pre-OPTN"), the new Organ Procurement Transplant Network (OPTN) system since August 10, 2017 ("OPTN"), and 2 strategies which restrict simultaneous liver-kidney transplants ("safety net" and "stringent"). We measured "cost" by deployment of deceased donor kidneys (DDKs) to liver transplant recipients and effectiveness by life years (LYs) and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) in liver transplant recipients. We validated our model against Scientific Registry for Transplant Recipients data.

RESULTS

The OPTN, safety net and stringent strategies were on the efficiency frontier. By rank order, OPTN > safety net > stringent strategy in terms of LY, QALY, and DDK deployment. The pre-OPTN system was dominated, or outperformed, by all alternative strategies. The incremental LY per DDK between the strategies ranged from 1.30 to 1.85. The incremental QALY per DDK ranged from 1.11 to 2.03.

CONCLUSIONS

These estimates quantify the "organ"-effectiveness of various kidney allocation strategies for liver transplant candidates. The OPTN system will likely deliver better liver transplant outcomes at the expense of more frequent deployment of DDKs to liver transplant recipients.

Using Cerebrospinal Fluid Biomarker Testing to Target Treatment to Patients with Mild Cognitive Impairment: A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis

OBJECTIVE

Cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) biomarkers are shown to facilitate a risk identification of patients with mild cognitive impairment (MCI) into different risk levels of progression to Alzheimer's disease (AD). Knowing a patient's risk level provides an opportunity for earlier interventions, which could result in potential greater benefits. We assessed the cost effectiveness of the use of CSF biomarkers in MCI patients where the treatment decision was based on patients' risk level.

METHODS

We developed a state-transition model to project lifetime quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) and costs for a cohort of 65-year-old MCI patients from a US societal perspective. We compared four test-and-treat strategies where the decision to treat was based on a patient's risk level (low, intermediate, high) of progressing to AD with two strategies without testing, one where no patients were treated during the MCI phase and in the other all patients were treated. We performed deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses to evaluate parameter uncertainty.

RESULTS

Testing and treating low-risk MCI patients was the most cost-effective strategy with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of US$37,700 per QALY. Our results were most sensitive to the level of treatment effectiveness for patients with mild AD and for MCI patients. Moreover, the ICERs for this strategy at the 2.5th and 97.5th percentiles were US$18,900 and US$50,100 per QALY, respectively.

CONCLUSION

Based on the best available evidence regarding the treatment effectiveness for MCI, this study suggests the potential value of performing CSF biomarker testing for early targeted treatments among MCI patients with a narrow range for the ICER.

Cost-effectiveness of multidisciplinary care in mild to moderate chronic kidney disease in the United States: A modeling study

BACKGROUND

Multidisciplinary care (MDC) programs have been proposed as a way to alleviate the cost and morbidity associated with chronic kidney disease (CKD) in the US.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We assessed the cost-effectiveness of a theoretical Medicare-based MDC program for CKD compared to usual CKD care in Medicare beneficiaries with stage 3 and 4 CKD between 45 and 84 years old in the US. The program used nephrologists, advanced practitioners, educators, dieticians, and social workers. From Medicare claims and published literature, we developed a novel deterministic Markov model for CKD progression and calibrated it to long-term risks of mortality and progression to end-stage renal disease. We then used the model to project accrued discounted costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) over patients' remaining lifetime. We estimated the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of MDC, or the cost of the intervention per QALY gained. MDC added 0.23 (95% CI: 0.08, 0.42) QALYs over usual care, costing $51,285 per QALY gained (net monetary benefit of $23,100 at a threshold of $150,000 per QALY gained; 95% CI: $6,252, $44,323). In all subpopulations analyzed, ICERs ranged from $42,663 to $72,432 per QALY gained. MDC was generally more cost-effective in patients with higher urine albumin excretion. Although ICERs were higher in younger patients, MDC could yield greater improvements in health in younger than older patients. MDC remained cost-effective when we decreased its effectiveness to 25% of the base case or increased the cost 5-fold. The program costed less than $70,000 per QALY in 95% of probabilistic sensitivity analyses and less than $87,500 per QALY in 99% of analyses. Limitations of our study include its theoretical nature and being less generalizable to populations at low risk for progression to ESRD. We did not study the potential impact of MDC on hospitalization (cardiovascular or other).

CONCLUSIONS

Our model estimates that a Medicare-funded MDC program could reduce the need for dialysis, prolong life expectancy, and meet conventional cost-effectiveness thresholds in middle-aged to elderly patients with mild to moderate CKD.

An Overview of R in Health Decision Sciences

As the complexity of health decision science applications increases, high-level programming languages are increasingly adopted for statistical analyses and numerical computations. These programming languages facilitate sophisticated modeling, model documentation, and analysis reproducibility. Among the high-level programming languages, the statistical programming framework R is gaining increased recognition. R is freely available, cross-platform compatible, and open source. A large community of users who have generated an extensive collection of well-documented packages and functions supports it. These functions facilitate applications of health decision science methodology as well as the visualization and communication of results. Although R’s popularity is increasing among health decision scientists, methodological extensions of R in the field of decision analysis remain isolated. The purpose of this article is to provide an overview of existing R functionality that is applicable to the various stages of decision analysis, including model design, input parameter estimation, and analysis of model outputs.