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Vaziri T, Rao YJ, Whalen M, Bethony J, Thakkar P, Lin J, Goyal S. Management of Localized Prostate Cancer in Men With Human Immunodeficiency Virus: Analysis of a Large Retrospective Cohort. Clin Genitourin Cancer 2023; 21:614.e1-614.e8. [PMID: 37208248 PMCID: PMC10543456 DOI: 10.1016/j.clgc.2023.04.012] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/12/2023] [Revised: 03/31/2023] [Accepted: 04/25/2023] [Indexed: 05/21/2023]
Abstract
INTRODUCTION We aimed to characterize the clinicopathological characteristics and outcomes of HIV-positive patients with clinically localized, prostate cancer (PCa). METHODS A retrospective study was conducted of HIV-positive patients from a single institution with elevated PSA and diagnosis of PCa by biopsy. PCa features, HIV characteristics, treatment type, toxicities, and outcomes were analyzed by descriptive statistics. Kaplan-Meier analysis was used to determine progression-free survival (PFS). RESULTS Seventy-nine HIV-positive patients were included with a median age at PCa diagnosis of 61 years-old and median duration from HIV infection to PCa diagnosis of 21 years. The median PSA level at diagnosis and Gleason Score was 6.85 ng/mL and 7, respectively. The 5-year PFS was 82.5% with the lowest survival observed in patients treated with radical prostatectomy (RP) + radiation therapy (RT), followed by cryosurgery (CS). There were no reports of PCa-specific deaths, and the 5-year overall survival was 97.5%. CD4 count declined post-treatment in pooled treatment groups that included RT (P = .02). CONCLUSION We present the characteristics and outcomes of the largest cohort of HIV-positive men with prostate cancer in published literature. RP and RT ± ADT is well-tolerated in HIV-positive patients with PCa as seen by the adequate biochemical control and mild toxicity. CS resulted in worse PFS compared to alternative treatments for patients within the same PCa risk group. A decline in CD4 counts was observed in patients treated RT, and further studies are needed to investigate this relationship. Our findings support the use of standard-of-care treatment for localized PCa in HIV-positive patients.
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Affiliation(s)
- Tina Vaziri
- Department of Radiation Oncology, George Washington University Medical Faculty Associates, Washington, DC
| | - Yuan J Rao
- Department of Radiation Oncology, George Washington University Medical Faculty Associates, Washington, DC
| | - Michael Whalen
- Department of Urology, George Washington University School of Medicine, Washington, DC
| | - Jeffrey Bethony
- Department of Microbiology, Immunology & Tropical Medicine, George Washington University School of Medicine, Washington, DC
| | - Punam Thakkar
- Department of Otolaryngology/Head and Neck Surgery, George Washington University School of Medicine, Washington, DC
| | - Jianqing Lin
- Department of Medicine, GW Cancer Center, George Washington University School of Medicine, Washington, DC
| | - Sharad Goyal
- Department of Radiation Oncology, George Washington University Medical Faculty Associates, Washington, DC.
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Levinson AW. Editorial Comment. Urology 2015; 85:421-2. [DOI: 10.1016/j.urology.2014.09.057] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/15/2022]
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Abstract
Cohort analysis is a widespread tool for computing expected costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) in Markov models for medical cost-effectiveness analyses. Although not always explicitly identified, such models commonly have multiple simple factors, or components. In these, a health state consists of a multiple component vector, one component for each factor, and arbitrary combinations of components are possible. The authors show here that when the model does not assume any probabilistic dependence among these factors, then a standard cohort analysis may be decomposed into several independent cohort analyses, one for each factor, and the results may be combined to produce desired expected costs and QALYs. These single-factor cohort analyses are not only simpler but also computationally more efficient. The authors derive the appropriate formulas for this cohort decomposition in discrete time and give several examples of their use based on published cost-effectiveness analyses. Explicitly identifying the simple factors of which a model is composed allows these factors to be portrayed graphically. Graphical depiction of the simple factors that comprise a model reduces model complexity, makes model formulation easier and more transparent, and thereby facilitates peer inspection and critique.
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Affiliation(s)
- Gordon Hazen
- Department of Industrial Engineering and Management Sciences, Northwestern University, Evanston, Illinois
| | - Zhe Li
- Department of Industrial Engineering and Management Sciences, Northwestern University, Evanston, Illinois
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Basu A, Dale W, Elstein A, Meltzer D. A linear index for predicting joint health-states utilities from single health-states utilities. HEALTH ECONOMICS 2009; 18:403-419. [PMID: 18773392 DOI: 10.1002/hec.1373] [Citation(s) in RCA: 15] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/26/2023]
Abstract
Direct elicitation of utilities for joint health (JS) states may pose substantial interview burden, while traditional models to predict these utilities from utilities of component single states (SS) are inconsistent with the data. Using individual-level data on utilities for health states associated with prostate cancer, we report the performance of a new model that encompasses three traditional models - additive, multiplicative, and minimum - previously used for predicting utilities for joint health states. Describing utilities in terms of utility losses l(.) relative to prefect health, our final estimated linear index for predicting joint health-state utilities is El(JS)=0.05+0.72 x max l(SS1),l(SS2)+0.33.min x l(SS1),l(SS2)-0.18 x l(SS1) x l(SS2). Based on out-of-sample predictions, this model produces up to 50% reduction in mean-square error compared with traditional models and consistent prediction across different ranges of joint-state utilities, which the traditional models do not. Parameter estimates of the new model proposed here provide direct evidence on the inconsistencies of the traditional models, are grounded in psychological theory by emphasizing the more severe component of a joint health state, and provide a simple linear index to generate consistent predictions of utilities for joint health states. Further validation of this function for joint health states in other clinical scenarios is warranted.
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Affiliation(s)
- Anirban Basu
- Department of Medicine, Section of General Internal Medicine, Center for Health and the Social Sciences, University of Chicago, Chicago, IL 60637, USA.
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Preliminary results of radiation therapy for prostate cancer in human immunodeficiency virus-positive patients. Urology 2008; 72:1135-8; discussion 1138. [PMID: 18407325 DOI: 10.1016/j.urology.2008.01.022] [Citation(s) in RCA: 18] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/22/2006] [Revised: 11/12/2007] [Accepted: 01/11/2008] [Indexed: 11/21/2022]
Abstract
OBJECTIVES The purpose of this study was to report on the clinical outcomes of patients treated at our institution for prostate cancer (PCa) who had been previously diagnosed as Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) positive. METHODS The authors conducted a retrospective study of 14 PCa/HIV patients who were being treated for PCa with external beam radiotherapy, brachytherapy, or a combination of the two. Each patient's prostate-specific antigen (PSA) level, CD4 count, and viral load were obtained before the initial radiation treatment and at the time of their most recent follow-up. In addition, 13 of 14 patients completed a quality of life survey with a social worker on staff and were examined by their radiation oncologist to assess the complications after treatment. RESULTS Comparing pretreatment data with the data at last follow-up, only 1 patient's PSA level remained above 1.1 ng/mL. The average CD4 count remained stable, increasing from 523 to 577 cells/mm(3), with the lowest final count at 200 cells/mm(3). Viral load increased in only 2 of 14 patients. There were no unusual rectal, urinary, or sexual complications, and no infections related to treatment. CONCLUSIONS Based on changes in viral load and CD4 count, radiotherapy does not appear to have a long-term negative effect on the immune system. Treatment complications are consistent with HIV-negative patients, giving no evidence that the subset of PCa/HIV patients should be treated differently from PCa patients without HIV when considering radiation therapy. More investigation will be necessary before reliable mortality and morbidity data can be assessed.
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Pantanowitz L, Bohac G, Cooley TP, Aboulafia D, Dezube BJ. Human immunodeficiency virus-associated prostate cancer: clinicopathological findings and outcome in a multi-institutional study. BJU Int 2008; 101:1519-23. [PMID: 18384640 DOI: 10.1111/j.1464-410x.2008.07474.x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 24] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/31/2022]
Abstract
OBJECTIVE To characterize the clinicopathological findings and the outcome of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected patients diagnosed and treated for prostate carcinoma, as HIV-positive men being treated with highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) are living longer and thus are more likely to develop cancers such as prostate cancer. PATIENTS AND METHODS We performed a retrospective, multi-institutional study involving HIV-positive men with concomitant prostate carcinoma. We collected data regarding patient demographics (age, race), HIV status (CD4(+) cell count, HIV viral load, HAART), PSA level (at cancer diagnosis), symptoms and signs, radiological findings, pathology (Gleason score, stage), cancer treatment (type, side-effects), and outcome (response, survival). Accrued data was analysed using descriptive statistics. RESULTS We identified 17 patients (mean age 59 years) with HIV-associated prostate adenocarcinoma. The mean CD4(+) count was 336 cells/mm(3) and the mean HIV viral load was 17 319 copies/mL. In all, 14 (82%) of these men were receiving HAART. Most patients were diagnosed with carcinoma after an abnormal screening PSA level. The mean PSA level was 30 ng/mL. Only six (35%) men had an abnormal prostate on examination. The mean Gleason score was 6.8, and in most cases, cancer was confined to the prostate gland. Most patients were amenable to curative treatment with hormonal therapy, radiation, and/or prostatectomy. There were no serious treatment related side-effects. One patient remained untreated. All treated patients had a complete response (undetectable PSA level). Most patients were long-term survivors. Documented death in five cases was unrelated to prostate cancer. CONCLUSION The management of HIV-positive men with prostate carcinoma in the HAART era is becoming increasingly important. Our data shows that in men receiving HAART, their age, PSA levels, clinical presentation, management, and outcome from treated prostate carcinoma does not appear to be significantly altered by HIV status. Therefore, we recommend that patients with prostate cancer and well-controlled HIV viraemia be managed similarly to their HIV-negative counterparts.
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Affiliation(s)
- Liron Pantanowitz
- Department of Pathology, Baystate Medical Center, Tufts University School of Medicine, Springfield, MA 01199, USA.
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O'Connor JK, Nedzi LA, Zakris EL. Prostate adenocarcinoma and human immunodeficiency virus: report of three cases and review of the literature. Clin Genitourin Cancer 2006; 5:85-8. [PMID: 16859585 DOI: 10.3816/cgc.2006.n.023] [Citation(s) in RCA: 17] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/20/2022]
Abstract
The objective of this study was to evaluate the acute tolerance to definitive external-beam radiation therapy (RT; EBRT) in patients with prostate adenocarcinoma and HIV and to review the published literature for this population. Three patients with prostate adenocarcinoma and HIV were treated with definitive RT. Medical records were reviewed for prostate cancer and HIV characteristics, RT details, and acute toxicity. A review of the published literature was performed for epidemiology, management, and outcome of these patients. All 3 patients had excellent acute tolerance to definitive EBRT and, with short follow-up, all had decreasing prostate-specific antigen levels. The published literature regarding patients with prostate adenocarcinoma and HIV is scarce but suggests that men with HIV might be at higher risk of developing prostate cancer. External-beam radiation therapy, brachytherapy, and surgery have all been used in the management of these patients. All 3 patients with prostate adenocarcinoma and HIV had an excellent acute tolerance to EBRT. Prostate cancer is expected to become an increasingly important health problem for men infected with HIV as their life expectancy lengthens.
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Affiliation(s)
- John K O'Connor
- Medical Center of Louisiana at New Orleans, Charity Hospital, Radiation Oncology, Tulane University School of Medicine New Orleans, LA 70112, USA.
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Honiden S, Sundaram V, Nease RF, Holodniy M, Lazzeroni LC, Zolopa A, Owens DK. The effect of diagnosis with HIV infection on health-related quality of Life. Qual Life Res 2006; 15:69-82. [PMID: 16411032 DOI: 10.1007/s11136-005-8485-x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 41] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 06/06/2005] [Indexed: 10/25/2022]
Abstract
We sought to understand how diagnosis with HIV affects health-related quality of life. We assessed health-related quality of life using utility-based measures in a Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) clinic and a University-based clinic. Respondents assessed health-related quality of life regarding their current health, and retrospectively assessed their health 1 month prior to and 2 months after diagnosis with HIV infection. Sixty-six patients completed the study. The overall mean utilities for health 1 month before and 2 months after diagnosis were 0.87 (standard error 0.037), and 0.80 (0.043) (p<0.005 by rank sign test), but the effect of diagnosis differed between the two clinics, with a substantial decrease in the university clinic and a small non-significant decrease in the VA clinic. The overall mean utility for current health was 0.85 (0.034), assessed on average 7.5 years after diagnosis. When asked directly whether diagnosis of HIV decreased health-related quality of life, 47% agreed, but 35% stated that HIV diagnosis positively affected health-related quality of life. Diagnosis with HIV decreased health-related quality of life at 2 months on average, but this effect diminished over time, and differed among patient populations. Years after diagnosis, although half of the patients believed that diagnosis reduced health-related quality of life, one-third reported improved health-related quality of life.
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Affiliation(s)
- Shyoko Honiden
- VA Palo Alto Health Care System (111A), 3801 Miranda Avenue, Palo Alto, CA
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Manfredi R, Fulgaro C, Sabbatani S, Dentale N, Legnani G. Disseminated, lethal prostate cancer during human immunodeficiency virus infection presenting with non-specific features. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2006; 30:20-3. [PMID: 16455210 DOI: 10.1016/j.cdp.2005.10.002] [Citation(s) in RCA: 13] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 10/21/2005] [Indexed: 11/29/2022]
Abstract
INTRODUCTION Prostate cancer is a very infrequent occurrence in persons aged 55 years or less, and it has been rarely reported in HIV-infected patients (10 overall cases so far); therefore, an increased incidence compared with the general population has not been established, although a younger age seems more frequent among population with HIV disease. CASE REPORT We report a case of metastatic prostate cancer occurred in a 53-year-old HIV-infected man, admitted due to non-specific signs, and symptoms: impaired general conditions, fever, weight loss, fatigue, and exertional dyspnea. A remarkable anemia and an aortic systolic murmur were the prominent initial findings, while AIDS-related conditions were not suspected due to a sustained CD4+ count and a contained viremia, which never required antiretroviral therapy. Repeated red blood cell transfusions and an empiric, combined antimicrobial therapy were promptly carried out, under the suspicion of infectious endocarditis, but no appreciable improvement of clinical conditions was achieved. Subsequently, our patient complained not only of an increasingly severe pain at the root of his left thigh, together with overcoming dysuria and urgency, but also urinary tract infection that was rapidly ruled out. During the diagnostic workup for an HIV-associated fever of undetermined origin, a bone marrow biopsy disclosed a metastatic prostatic cancer, with elevated prostate specific antigen (PSA) and acid phosphate levels. An abdominal-pelvic ultrasonography and computerized tomographic scan allowed to detect a dyshomogeneous endopelvic expansive mass with extrinsic compression of the urinary bladder, and involvement of the last lumbar vertebra, large portions of pelvis, and the proximal epiphysis of the right femur. A skeleton scintigraphy pointed out multiple hypercaptation (areas of concentrated traces of radioactivity) areas with involvement of cranial, cervical, dorsal, lumbar, and sacral vertebrae, as well as the pelvis and upper portions of both femurs. Despite therapeutic attempts, our patient deceased after seven weeks due to an overwhelming disseminated intravascular coagulation (DIC). CONCLUSIONS The non-specific clinical presentation of our case (mimicking other generalized or focal illnesses), and the final, lethal complication (DIC) pose striking problems related to the differential diagnosis during HIV disease, while the rapid evolution into an advanced, complicated, and widely metastatic disease with extensive bone marrow invasion which preceded the appearance of local signs-symptoms, and the lethal overwhelming DIC, deserves attention by specialists who care for HIV-infected subjects.
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Affiliation(s)
- Roberto Manfredi
- Department of Clinical and Experimental Medicine, Division of Infectious Diseases, University of Bologna Alma Mater Studiorum, S. Orsola Hospital, Via Massarenti 11, I-40138 Bologna, Italy.
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Levinson A, Nagler EA, Lowe FC. Approach to management of clinically localized prostate cancer in patients with human immunodeficiency virus. Urology 2005; 65:91-4. [PMID: 15667871 DOI: 10.1016/j.urology.2004.08.053] [Citation(s) in RCA: 36] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/10/2004] [Accepted: 08/27/2004] [Indexed: 11/25/2022]
Abstract
OBJECTIVES To evaluate the approach to management of localized prostate cancer (PCa) in patients with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) in the highly active antiretroviral therapy era. METHODS A retrospective analysis was performed on 10 HIV-positive patients who recently presented with elevated prostate-specific antigen levels and clinically localized PCa. RESULTS At the diagnosis of PCa, the average patient was 54.0 years old, had been HIV positive for 8.75 years, had a CD4 count of 417, a prostate-specific antigen level of 9.2 ng/mL, and a Gleason score of 6. Eight of the patients had risk factors for PCa--either African-American descent (n = 6) or a positive family history (n = 2). The treatment was laparoscopic radical prostatectomy in 1, potency-preserving androgen deprivation in 1, cryosurgery in 1, brachytherapy in 2, observation in 2, and external beam radiotherapy in 3. CONCLUSIONS Screening of all HIV-positive men should be initiated at age 40 if they have either a positive family history of prostate cancer or are of African-American descent. Asymptomatic HIV-positive patients should be offered all therapeutic PCa treatment options.
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Affiliation(s)
- Adam Levinson
- Department of Urology, Columbia University College of Physicians and Surgeons, New York, New York, USA
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Crum NF, Spencer CR, Amling CL. Prostate carcinoma among men with human immunodeficiency virus infection. Cancer 2004; 101:294-9. [PMID: 15241826 DOI: 10.1002/cncr.20389] [Citation(s) in RCA: 42] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Several malignancies are known to occur more frequently in individuals with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection. To determine the incidence of prostate carcinoma in men with HIV infection, the authors initiated a prostate carcinoma screening program in a large HIV clinic. METHODS Beginning in February 2002, monitoring of prostate-specific antigen (PSA) levels and digital rectal examination (DRE) were included in the routine annual health maintenance provided to men with HIV infection age > or = 35 years who were followed in the infectious disease clinic at the Naval Medical Center San Diego. All men with prostate carcinoma in this population over the last 2 years were reviewed. Demographic data (age, ethnicity), duration of HIV infection, laboratory values (CD4 counts and HIV viral load), and medication use were determined by medical record review. Men with elevated PSA levels (levels above age-adjusted PSA values or PSA velocity > or = 0.75 ng/mL per year) or abnormal DRE results were referred for urologic evaluation. Comparisons between groups were performed using a logistic regression model and the Fisher exact test. Multivariate analysis was performed by logistic regression to determine relations between prostate carcinoma and patient characteristics. RESULTS Two hundred sixty-nine men age > or = 35 years (mean age, 43.4 years; range, 35-72years) underwent prostate carcinoma screening by DRE, and 216 men also received PSA testing. Overall, 56.3% of the patients were white, 28.7% were African American, and 15% were of other racial ethnicity. Of the 216 men, 7 (3.2%) had elevated PSA values, and none had abnormal DRE results. Three patients were diagnosed with prostatitis (PSA range, 3.3-25.7 ng/mL), and 1 patient had high-grade prostatic intraepithelial neoplasia, which was determined after a biopsy was performed. Repeat PSA evaluations were within normal limits for the remaining three patients. Review of the cohort during the 2-year period before the current study was initiated revealed 5 additional cases of prostate neoplasia. Prostate carcinoma was common (4 of 11 men, 36.4%) in men age > 60 years and occurred with relatively preserved CD4 counts (mean, 509 cells/mm(3)). In multivariate analysis, African-American race (P = 0.020) and duration of HIV infection (P = 0.047) were found to be associated with the development of prostate carcinoma. CONCLUSIONS Prostate carcinoma screening identified abnormal PSA values in 3.2% of the HIV-positive cohort, many associated with prostatitis. Prostate carcinoma was common in older men and was associated with duration of HIV infection. As the life expectancy of men with HIV infection increases, prostate carcinoma screening will become increasingly important in this population.
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Affiliation(s)
- Nancy F Crum
- Division of Infectious Diseases, Department of Internal Medicine, Naval Medical Center San Diego, San Diego, California 92134, USA.
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Abstract
The authors performed a meta-analysis to derive pooled utilities for HIV/AIDS and to assess the relative importance of study design characteristics in predicting utilities. Twenty-five articles were identified reporting 74 unique utilities elicited from 1956 respondents. The authors used a hierarchical linear model to perform the meta-analysis, with disease stage, elicitation method, respondent type, and the upper-bound and lower-bound labels for the utility scale as the independent variables. Disease stage (P = 0.016) and respondent type (P = 0.014) were significant predictors of utility. Elicitation method was of marginal significance (P = 0. 052). Bounds were not significant. Pooling utilities, the authors estimate a utility of 0.70 for AIDS, 0.82 for symptomatic HIV and 0.94 for asymptomatic HIV when the time tradeoff method is used to elicit utilities from patients and the scale ranges from death to perfect health. The pooled utilities reported here should be of great use to researchers performing cost-utility analyses of interventions for HIV/AIDS.
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Affiliation(s)
- Tammy O Tengs
- Health Priorities Research Group, School of Social Ecology, University of California, Irvine 92697-7075, USA.
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Abstract
Attitudes held by health care workers towards people with HIV and AIDS are on the whole negative, and numerous studies confirm the reality and complexity of this tendency. This paper will provide a related literature review, and identify four particular factors that go some way towards explaining the robustness of these attitudes. These are social, psychological, political and anthropological in nature. A model from classical physics will be used metaphorically to illustrate and articulate the apparent inevitability of this harmful process, and also a possible solution.
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Affiliation(s)
- I Hodgson
- School of Health Studies, University of Bradford, England
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Abstract
BACKGROUND The technique of decision analysis is often applied to clinical policy and economic issues in surgery. Because surgeons may be unfamiliar with such work, this article catalogues decision analysis studies in the surgical specialties. METHODS We reviewed the medical literature (1966 to 1994) to identify surgical decision analysis studies and to assess trends over time. Each article was categorized according to the type of journal (surgical, other clinical, or technical) in which it was published and content, including surgical specialty, clinical topic, article focus (individual patient decision making, clinical policy, or cost-effectiveness), and primary findings. RESULTS Publication rates of surgical decision analysis have increased dramatically over time. Of the 86 total studies only six were published before 1980. In contrast, 44 studies appeared between 1990 and 1994. Although 77% were published in nonsurgical journals, decision analyses have begun to appear more regularly in surgical forums. Studies addressing all of the surgical specialties were found, although more than one half addressed topics in general surgery (34%) or cardiothoracic surgery (22%). The most frequent topics were gallstones (11 articles), head and neck cancer (five articles), coronary artery disease (four articles), and cerebral arteriovenous malformations (four articles). Articles focusing on clinical policy (i.e., those assessing surgical efficacy for broad groups of patients) now account for large majority of published decision analyses. CONCLUSIONS The use of decision analysis in surgery is growing steadily. Because decision analysis is being used to influence clinical policy, it is important for surgeons to be aware of these studies and to be able to review them critically.
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Affiliation(s)
- J D Birkmeyer
- Department of Surgery, Dartmouth Medical School, Hanover, N.H., USA
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Benbassat J, Zajicek G, van Oortmarssen GJ, Ben-Dov I, Eckman MH. Inaccuracies in estimates of life expectancies of patients with bronchial cancer in clinical decision making. Med Decis Making 1993; 13:237-44. [PMID: 8412553 DOI: 10.1177/0272989x9301300310] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/30/2023]
Abstract
Approximations of life expectancy in clinical decision making frequently assume constant disease-specific ("excess") mortality hazards over age at diagnosis and over time from diagnosis. This assumption is inconsistent with the longer relative survival of younger patients with bladder cancer and with the declines in mortality hazards from bladder and breast cancers over time from diagnosis. To estimate the error that may result from these assumptions, the authors derived excess mortality hazards from the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Result (SEER) tumor registry for bronchial cancers stratified by age at diagnosis and time from diagnosis. They compared the life expectancies calculated by a model using an average constant annual cancer-specific mortality hazard over time from diagnosis with those calculated using data-derived cancer-specific annual mortality hazards that varied as a function of time from diagnosis. For younger patients with less advanced disease, the constant-average-mortality model underestimated life expectancies by up to 50% relative to those predicted by the time-variant model. For those over 75 years old at diagnosis, and for all patients with advanced disease, the constant-average-mortality model overestimated life expectancies by up to 65% relative to those predicted by the time-variant model. The authors conclude that predictions of life expectancy with bronchial cancer, and probably with other neoplasms, are limited by the widespread use of oversimplified methods of calculation and by the lack of data describing mortality hazards as a function of time from diagnosis.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)
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Affiliation(s)
- J Benbassat
- Department of Medicine, New England Medical Center, Tufts University School of Medicine, Boston, Massachusetts 02111
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Hazen GB. Factored stochastic trees: a tool for solving complex temporal medical decision models. Med Decis Making 1993; 13:227-36. [PMID: 8412552 DOI: 10.1177/0272989x9301300309] [Citation(s) in RCA: 20] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/30/2023]
Abstract
The stochastic tree is a continuous-time version of a Markov-cycle tree, useful for constructing and solving medical decision models in which risks of mortality and morbidity may extend over time. Stochastic trees have advantages over Markov-cycle trees in graphic display and computational solution. Like the decision tree or Markov-cycle tree, stochastic tree models of complex medical decision problems can be too large for convenient graphic formulation and display. This paper introduces the notion of factoring a large stochastic tree into simpler components, each of which may be easily displayed. It also shows how the rollback solution procedure for unfactored stochastic trees may be conveniently adapted to solve factored trees. These concepts are illustrated using published examples from the medical literature.
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Affiliation(s)
- G B Hazen
- Department of Industrial Engineering and Management Sciences, Northwestern University, Evanston, Illinois 60208-3119
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Abstract
BACKGROUND The management of early stage prostatic cancer is controversial. METHODS Pertinent literature concerning the conservative management of early stage prostatic cancer by early endocrine therapy (EET) or by deferred treatment (DT) was reviewed. RESULTS EET has not been systematically studied. Available evidence suggests that early stage prostatic cancer often progresses slowly and that DT results in a cancer-specific mortality of approximately 80% at 10 years. CONCLUSIONS EET warrants clinical investigation. DT is a management option, at least in patients with a life expectancy of 10 years or less.
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Affiliation(s)
- W F Whitmore
- Department of Urology, Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center, New York, NY 10021
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Abstract
A review of the literature on the use of decision analysis in clinical oncology shows that, although these techniques have been available for more than 25 years, they have not been widely applied: only 19 decision analyses of therapeutic management in clinical oncology were found. The main disadvantages concern the difficulty of accurately assessing probabilities and defining measures of outcome. Time-consuming analysis may produce results that are either equivocal or simply confirm the expectations of common sense. If the basic design fails to include all relevant factors then any conclusions will be of little value. The main advantages are that, by demanding that problems be explicitly stated and analysed in a logical fashion, deficiencies in current knowledge, belief and practice are identified. The usefulness of these techniques lies in formulating management guidelines, either for treatment or for follow-up. They have only a limited role in decision making for individual patients.
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Affiliation(s)
- A J Munro
- Department of Radiotherapy, St Bartholomew's Hospital, West Smithfield, London, UK
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Abstract
This paper introduces stochastic trees, a new modeling approach for the class of medical decision problems in which risks of mortality and morbidity may extend over time. A stochastic tree may be regarded as a continuous-time version of a Markov-cycle tree, or alternately, as a multi-state DEALE model. Optimal decisions in stochastic trees can be determined by rollback, much in the same fashion as decision trees. The author discusses how age-dependent mortality rates and declining incidence rates may be modeled using stochastic trees. Concepts are illustrated using examples from the medical literature. It is argued that stochastic trees possess important advantages over Markov-cycle trees for medical decision modeling.
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Affiliation(s)
- G B Hazen
- Department of Industrial Engineering and Management Sciences, Northwestern University, Evanston, Illinois 60208-3119
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Gallop RM, Lancee WJ, Taerk G, Coates RA, Fanning M. Fear of contagion and AIDS: nurses' perception of risk. AIDS Care 1992; 4:103-9. [PMID: 1562626 DOI: 10.1080/09540129208251624] [Citation(s) in RCA: 22] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/27/2022]
Abstract
Nurses' fear of contagion when caring for persons with AIDS remains high despite increased levels of knowledge. This paper examines the multiple factors that contribute to nurses' perception of risk within the workplace. The authors suggests that constructs from theories such as decision making, psychoanalysis and cognitive psychology can provide insight into the assessment of risk. Findings from a recent survey of nurses are used to illustrate the complex nature of fear of contagion. Understanding this complexity may be an essential first step in order to provide opportunities for resolution of fears and modification of behaviors.
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Affiliation(s)
- R M Gallop
- Faculty of Nursing, University of Toronto, Ontario, Canada
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23
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Quebbeman EJ, Telford GL, Hubbard S, Wadsworth K, Hardman B, Goodman H, Gottlieb MS. Risk of blood contamination and injury to operating room personnel. Ann Surg 1991; 214:614-20. [PMID: 1953115 PMCID: PMC1358618 DOI: 10.1097/00000658-199111000-00012] [Citation(s) in RCA: 120] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/29/2022]
Abstract
The potential for transmission of deadly viral diseases to health care workers exists when contaminated blood is inoculated through injury or when blood comes in contact with nonintact skin. Operating room personnel are at particularly high risk for injury and blood contamination, but data on the specifics of which personnel are at greater risk and which practices change risk in this environment are almost nonexistent. To define these risk factors, experienced operating room nurses were employed solely to observe and record the injuries and blood contaminations that occurred during 234 operations involving 1763 personnel. Overall 118 of the operations (50%) resulted in at least one person becoming contaminated with blood. Cuts or needlestick injuries occurred in 15% of the operations. Several factors were found to significantly alter the risk of blood contamination or injury: surgical specialty, role of each person, duration of the procedure, amount of blood loss, number of needles used, and volume of irrigation fluid used. Risk calculations that use average values to include all personnel in the operating room or all operations performed substantially underestimate risk for surgeons and first assistants, who accounted for 81% of all body contamination and 65% of the injuries. The area of the body contaminated also changed with the surgical specialty. These data should help define more appropriate protection for individuals in the operating room and should allow refinements of practices and techniques to decrease injury.
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Affiliation(s)
- E J Quebbeman
- Department of Surgery, Medical College of Wisconsin, Milwaukee
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24
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Whitmore WF. Natural History of Low-Stage Prostatic Cancer and the Impact of Early Detection. Urol Clin North Am 1990. [DOI: 10.1016/s0094-0143(21)01364-1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 26] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/21/2022]
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25
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Deber RB, Goel V. Using explicit decision rules to manage issues of justice, risk, and ethics in decision analysis: when is it not rational to maximize expected utility? Med Decis Making 1990; 10:181-94. [PMID: 2196412 DOI: 10.1177/0272989x9001000305] [Citation(s) in RCA: 76] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/30/2022]
Abstract
Concepts of justice, risk, and ethics can be merged with decision analysis by requiring the analyst to specify explicity a decision rule or sequence of rules. Decision rules are categorized by whether they consider: 1) aspects of outcome distributions beyond central tendencies; 2) probabilities as well as utilities of outcomes; and 3) means as well as ends. This formulation suggests that distribution-based decision rules could address both risk (for an individual) and justice (for the population). Rational choice under risk if choices are one-time only (vs. repeated events) or if one branch contains unlikely but disastrous outcomes might ignore probability information. Incorporating risk attitude into decision rules rather than utilities could facilitate use of multiattribute approaches to measuring outcomes. Certain ethical concerns could be addressed by prior specification of rules for allowing particular branches. Examples, including selection of polio vaccine strategies, are discussed, and theoretical and practical implications of a decision rule approach noted.
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Affiliation(s)
- R B Deber
- Department of Health Administration, University of Toronto, Ontario, Canada
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26
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McKinney WP, Young MJ. The Cumulative Probability of Occupationally-Acquired HIV Infection: The Risks of Repeated Exposures during a Surgical Career. Infect Control Hosp Epidemiol 1990. [DOI: 10.2307/30147036] [Citation(s) in RCA: 23] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/10/2022]
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27
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Geriatric oncology: perspectives from decision analysis. A review. Arch Gerontol Geriatr 1990; 10:141-62. [PMID: 15374510 DOI: 10.1016/0167-4943(90)90015-x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/26/1989] [Revised: 11/27/1989] [Accepted: 11/29/1989] [Indexed: 11/19/2022]
Abstract
The management of advanced cancer in the older person is variable. In some patients with common malignancies chemotherapy may palliate symptoms and prolong survival, while in other patients chemotherapy is a cause of overwhelming toxicity and supportive care is the preferred form of treatment. We explored the principles of individualized management for the older person with cancer and we used decision analysis as a guide. From a decisional standpoint, geriatric malignancies may be subdivided into two categories: diseases whose management is not affected by age and diseases whose management may be age-conditioned. In the latter group one can distinguish three clinical situations: diseases with short survival when untreated, which are responsive only to highly toxic chemotherapy; diseases with short survival when untreated, which may be responsive to low-toxicity chemotherapy; and diseases with prolonged survival when untreated, whose clinical course may be affected by chemotherapy. From the analysis of these clinical situations, a critical paucity of information has emerged in five areas: prognostic evaluation of the older patients, interaction of comorbid conditions and cancer chemotherapy, availability of low-toxicity alternative treatment regimens, life expectancy and estimate of outcome utilities. Further research in these areas, according to the lines we propose, may fill critical gaps of knowledge and allow optimal management of geriatric cancer.
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28
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Abstract
Conceptual advances include attempts to achieve uniformity among systems for characterizing and reporting experiences with prostatic cancer, better understanding of the zonal anatomy of the prostate, and recognition of probable precursor lesions to prostatic cancer. Prostatic-specific antigen, transrectal ultrasonography, and fine-needle aspiration biopsy are major innovations in diagnosis and staging of prostatic cancer. The varied and unpredictable behavior of prostatic cancer has stimulated the search for reliable indicators of the biologic potential of the disease. Management of localized prostatic cancer remains controversial. A nerve-sparing technique of radical retropubic prostatectomy accomplishes total removal of the prostate with possible preservation of sexual potency. Linear accelerator irradiation is an acceptable alternative treatment. Interstitial irradiation with a variety of radionuclides remains under investigation using ultrasound to enhance distribution of radiation sources. Endocrine therapy may prove especially advantageous if administered before development of bone metastasis.
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Affiliation(s)
- W F Whitmore
- Department of Surgery, Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center, New York, New York 10021
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29
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Pauker SG. HIV screening: nosocomial epidemiologic risks and decision analysis. LAW, MEDICINE & HEALTH CARE : A PUBLICATION OF THE AMERICAN SOCIETY OF LAW & MEDICINE 1990; 18:33-40. [PMID: 2197512 DOI: 10.1111/j.1748-720x.1990.tb01129.x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/30/2022]
Abstract
Acquired immunodeficiency syndrome continues to expand exponentially, although the rate of growth in some sectors of the population has been slowing. Unfortunately, these clinically manifest cases constitute only a tiny fraction of the population infected with the human immunodeficiency virus. Epidemiologic data provide only crude estimates of the prevalence of asymptomatic viral infection, although more specific information is available for certain groups, most often defined by demographic, behavioral and medical information. Those data suggest that the prevalence of virus varies some 5000-fold from as low as 0.01 percent up to 50 percent.The extraordinary and relatively unmodifiable consequences of HIV infection provoke increasing concern among health care workers about the possibility of nosocomial infection. For nosocomial transmission to occur: 1) the patient must be infected; 2) parenteral exposure to blood or certain other body fluids must occur; and 3) the virus must be transferred (with the latter likelihood being proportional to the quantity of exposure).
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