Sequential Organ Failure Assessment Component Score Prediction of In-hospital Mortality From Sepsis

Correlations of three scoring systems with the prognosis of patients with liver cirrhosis complicated with sepsis syndrome

BACKGROUND

Severe symptoms associated with sepsis syndrome (SS) are considered a severe threat, which not only increases therapeutic difficulty but also causes a prognostic mortality rate. However, at present, few related studies focused on the application of different score scales for disease and prognosis assessment in liver cirrhosis (LC) complicated with SS.

AIM

To determine the correlations of the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD), sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA), and modified early warning score (MEWS) points with the prognosis of patients with LC complicated with SS.

METHODS

This retrospective analysis included 426 LC cases from February 2019 to April 2022. Of them, 225 cases that were complicated with SS were assigned to the LC + SS group, and 201 simple LC cases were included in the LC group. Intergroup differences in MELD, SOFA, and MEWS scores were compared, as well as their diagnostic value for LC + SS. The correlations of the three scores with the prognosis of patients with LC + SS were further analyzed, as well as the related risk factors affecting patients’ outcomes, after the follow-up investigation.

RESULTS

MELD, SOFA, and MEWS scores were all higher in the LC + SS group vs the LC group, and their combined assessment for LC + SS revealed a diagnostic sensitivity and a specificity of 89.66% and 90.84%, respectively (P < 0.05). The LC + SS group reported 58 deaths, with an overall mortality rate of 25.78%. Deceased patients presented higher MELD, SOFA, and MEWS points than those who survived (P < 0.05). MELD, SOFA, and MEWS scores were determined by COX analysis as factors independently affecting the prognosis of patients with LC + SS (P < 0.05).

CONCLUSION

MELD, SOFA, and MEWS effectively diagnosed LC in patients complicated with SS, and they demonstrated great significance in assessing prognosis, which provides a reliable prognosis guarantee for patients with LC + SS. However, their assessment effects remain limited, which is worthy of further investigation by more in-depth and rigorous experimental analysis.

Analyzing how the components of the SOFA score change over time in their contribution to mortality

OBJECTIVE

Determine how each organ component of the SOFA score differs in its contribution to mortality risk and how that contribution may change over time.

METHODS

We performed multivariate logistic regression analysis to assess the contribution of each organ component to mortality risk on Days 1 and 7 of an intensive care unit stay. We used data from two publicly available datasets, eICU Collaborative Research Database (eICU-CRD) (208 hospitals) and Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care IV (MIMIC-IV) (1 hospital). The odds ratio of each SOFA component that contributed to mortality was calculated. Mortality was defined as death either in the intensive care unit or within 72 hours of discharge from the intensive care unit.

RESULTS

A total of 7,871 intensive care unit stays from eICU-CRD and 4,926 intensive care unit stays from MIMIC-IV were included. Liver dysfunction was most predictive of mortality on Day 1 in both cohorts (OR 1.3; 95%CI 1.2 - 1.4; OR 1.3; 95%CI 1.2 - 1.4, respectively). In the eICU-CRD cohort, central nervous system dysfunction was most predictive of mortality on Day 7 (OR 1.4; 95%CI 1.4 - 1.5). In the MIMIC-IV cohort, respiratory dysfunction (OR 1.4; 95%CI 1.3 - 1.5) and cardiovascular dysfunction (OR 1.4; 95%CI 1.3 - 1.5) were most predictive of mortality on Day 7.

CONCLUSION

The SOFA score may be an oversimplification of how dysfunction of different organ systems contributes to mortality over time. Further research at a more granular timescale is needed to explore how the SOFA score can evolve and be ameliorated.

Are Deep Odontogenic Infections Associated With an Increased Risk for Sepsis?

BACKGROUND

Quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (qSOFA) is recommended to identify sepsis. Odontogenic infection (OI) can progress to sepsis, causing systematic inflammatory complications or organ failure.

PURPOSE

The purpose of the study was to measure the association between OI location and risk for sepsis at admission.

STUDY DESIGN, SETTING, AND SAMPLE

This retrospective cohort study included subjects treated for OI at Baylor University Medical Center in Dallas, TX, from January 9, 2019 to July 30, 2022. Subjects > 18 years old who were treated under general anesthesia were included. OI limited to periapical, vestibular, buccal, and/or canine spaces were excluded from the sample.

PREDICTOR VARIABLE

The primary predictor variable was OI anatomic location (superficial or deep). Superficial OI infection includes submental, submandibular, sublingual, submasseteric, and/or superficial temporal spaces. Deep OI includes pterygomandibular, deep temporal, lateral pharyngeal, retropharyngeal, pretracheal, and/or prevertebral.

MAIN OUTCOME VARIABLES

The primary outcome variable was risk for sepsis measured using a qSOFA score (0 to 3). A higher score (>0) indicates the patient has a high risk for sepsis.

COVARIATES

Covariates were demographics, clinical, laboratory, and radiological findings, antibiotic route, postoperative endotracheal intubation, tracheostomy, intensive care unit, admission, and length of stay.

ANALYSES

Descriptive and bivariate analyses were performed. A χ2 test was used for categorical variables. The Mann-Whitney U test was used for continuous variables. Statistical significance was P < .05.

RESULTS

The sample was composed of 168 subjects with a mean age of 42.8 ± 21.5 and 69 (48.6%) subjects were male. There were 11 (6.5%) subjects with a qSOFA score > 0. The relative risk of a qSOFA > 0 for a deep OI is 5.4 times greater than for a superficial OI (136 (95.8) versus 21 (80.8%): RR (95% confidence interval): 5.4 (1.51 to 19.27), P = .004). After adjusting for age, sex, American Society of Anesthesiologists score, and involved anatomical spaces, there was a significant correlation between laterality and the number of involved anatomical spaces and qSOFA score (odd ratio = 9.13, 95% confidence interval: 2.48 to 33.55, adjusted P = <.001).

CONCLUSION AND RELEVANCE

The study findings suggest that the OI location is associated with the qSOFA score >0.

A nomogram for predicting 28-day mortality in elderly patients with acute kidney injury receiving continuous renal replacement therapy: a secondary analysis based on a retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Acute kidney injury (AKI) is a common and serious condition, particularly among elderly patients. It is associated with high morbidity and mortality rates, further compounded by the need for continuous renal replacement therapy in severe cases. To improve clinical decision-making and patient management, there is a need for accurate prediction models that can identify patients at a high risk of mortality.

METHODS

Data were extracted from the Dryad Digital Repository. Multivariate analysis was performed using least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) logistic regression analysis to identify independent risk factors and construct a predictive nomogram for mortality within 28 days after continuous renal replacement therapy in elderly patients with acute kidney injury. The discrimination of the model was evaluated in the validation cohort using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), and calibration was evaluated using a calibration curve. The clinical utility of the model was assessed using decision curve analysis (DCA).

RESULTS

A total of 606 participants were enrolled and randomly divided into two groups: a training cohort (n = 424) and a validation cohort (n = 182) in a 7:3 proportion. A risk prediction model was developed to identify independent predictors of 28-day mortality in elderly patients with AKI. The predictors included age, systolic blood pressure, creatinine, albumin, phosphorus, age-adjusted Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI), Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) score, and sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) score. These predictors were incorporated into a logistic model and presented in a user-friendly nomogram. In the validation cohort, the model demonstrated good predictive performance with an AUC of 0.799. The calibration curve showed that the model was well calibrated. Additionally, DCA revealed significant net benefits of the nomogram for clinical application.

CONCLUSION

The development of a nomogram for predicting 28-day mortality in elderly patients with AKI receiving continuous renal replacement therapy has the potential to improve prognostic accuracy and assist in clinical decision-making.

Associations Between Volume of Early Intravenous Fluid and Hospital Outcomes in Septic Patients With and Without Heart Failure: A Retrospective Cohort Study

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate the relationship between early IV fluid volume and hospital outcomes, including death in-hospital or discharge to hospice, in septic patients with and without heart failure (HF).

DESIGN

A retrospective cohort study using logistic regression with restricted cubic splines to assess for nonlinear relationships between fluid volume and outcomes, stratified by HF status and adjusted for propensity to receive a given fluid volume in the first 6 hours. An ICU subgroup analysis was performed. Secondary outcomes of vasopressor use, mechanical ventilation, and length of stay in survivors were assessed.

SETTING

An urban university-based hospital.

PATIENTS

A total of 9613 adult patients were admitted from the emergency department from 2012 to 2021 that met electronic health record-based Sepsis-3 criteria. Preexisting HF diagnosis was identified by the International Classification of Diseases codes.

INTERVENTIONS

None.

MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS

There were 1449 admissions from patients with HF. The relationship between fluid volume and death or discharge to hospice was nonlinear in patients without HF, and approximately linear in patients with HF. Receiving 0-15 mL/kg in the first 6 hours was associated with lower likelihood of death or discharge to hospice compared with 30-45 mL/kg (odds ratio = 0.61; 95% CI, 0.41-0.90; p = 0.01) in HF patients, but no significant difference for non-HF patients. A similar pattern was identified in ICU admissions and some secondary outcomes. Volumes larger than 15-30 mL/kg for non-HF patients and 30-45 mL/kg for ICU-admitted non-HF patients were not associated with improved outcomes.

CONCLUSIONS

Early fluid resuscitation showed distinct patterns of potential harm and benefit between patients with and without HF who met Sepsis-3 criteria. Restricted cubic splines analysis highlighted the importance of considering nonlinear fluid outcomes relationships and identified potential points of diminishing returns (15-30 mL/kg across all patients without HF and 30-45 mL/kg when admitted to the ICU). Receiving less than 15 mL/kg was associated with better outcomes in HF patients, suggesting small volumes may be appropriate in select patients. Future studies may benefit from investigating nonlinear fluid-outcome associations and a focus on other conditions like HF.

Association between white blood cell-to-haemoglobin ratio and 30 day mortality in heart failure in intensive care unit

AIMS

The short-term mortality of heart failure (HF) patients admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) is reported to be high. This study aims to explore the association between white blood cell-to-haemoglobin ratio (WHR) and 30 day mortality from the admission to the ICU.

METHODS AND RESULTS

This retrospective cohort study was performed based on the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care III (MIMIC-III) database (2001-12) and MIMIC-IV database (2008-19). Covariables were selected using the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression. Based on the optimal cutoff point selected using the survminer package, WHR was divided into high-ratio group (≥1.6) and low-ratio group (<1.6). The association between WHR and the risk of 30 day mortality was explored using univariate and multivariable Cox regression models. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was calculated to evaluate the prediction performance of WHR. A total of 13 702 patients were included. After adjusting the potential covariates, high WHR was associated with a greater risk of 30 day mortality compared with low WHR [hazard ratio = 1.16, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.07-1.27, P < 0.001]. WHR also showed a good performance for the prediction of risk of 30 day mortality (AUC = 0.751, 95% CI: 0.746-0.756).

CONCLUSIONS

WHR was positively associated with and performed well to predict 30 day mortality, indicating that WHR may be a reliable index to assess the prognosis of HF patients admitted to the ICU.

Racial disparities in septic shock mortality: a retrospective cohort study

Background

Patients with septic shock have the highest risk of death from sepsis, however, racial disparities in mortality outcomes in this cohort have not been rigorously investigated. Our objective was to describe the association between race/ethnicity and mortality in patients with septic shock.

Methods

Our study is a retrospective cohort study of adult patients in the OneFlorida Data Trust (Florida, United States of America) admitted with septic shock between January 2012 and July 2018. We identified patients as having septic shock if they received vasopressors during their hospital encounter and had either an explicit International Classification of Disease (ICD) code for sepsis, or had an infection ICD code and received intravenous antibiotics. Our primary outcome was 90-day mortality. Our secondary outcome was in-hospital mortality. Multiple logistic regression with Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) for variable selection was used to assess associations.

Findings

There were 13,932 patients with septic shock in our cohort. The mean age was 61 years (SD 16), 68% of the cohort identified as White (n = 9419), 28% identified as Black (n = 3936), 2% (n = 294) identified as Hispanic ethnicity, and 2% as other races not specified in the previous groups (n = 283). In our logistic regression model for 90-day mortality, patients identified as Black had 1.57 times the odds of mortality (95% CI 1.07-2.29, p = 0.02) compared to White patients. Other significant predictors included mechanical ventilation (OR 3.66, 95% CI 3.35-4.00, p < 0.01), liver disease (OR 1.75, 95% CI 1.59-1.93, p < 0.01), laboratory components of the Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score (OR 1.18, 95% CI 1.16-1.21, p < 0.01), lactate (OR 1.10, 95% CI 1.08-1.12, p < 0.01), congestive heart failure (OR 1.19, 95% CI 1.10-1.30, p < 0.01), human immunodeficiency virus (OR 1.35, 95% CI 1.04-1.75, p = 0.03), age (OR 1.04, 95% CI 1.04-1.04, p < 0.01), and the interaction between age and race (OR 0.99, 95% CI 0.99-1.00, p < 0.01). Among younger patients (<45 years), patients identified as Black accounted for a higher proportion of the deaths. Results were similar in the in-hospital mortality model.

Interpretation

In this retrospective study of septic shock patients, we found that patients identified as Black had higher odds of mortality compared to patients identified as non-Hispanic White. Our findings suggest that the greatest disparities in mortality are among younger Black patients with septic shock.

Funding

National Institutes of Health National Center for Advancing Translational Sciences (1KL2TR001429); National Institute of Health National Institute of General Medical Sciences (1K23GM144802).

Modified Cardiovascular Sequential Organ Failure Assessment Score in Sepsis: External Validation in Intensive Care Unit Patients

BACKGROUND

There is a need to update the cardiovascular (CV) Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score to reflect the current practice in sepsis. We previously proposed the modified CV SOFA score from data on blood pressure, norepinephrine equivalent dose, and lactate as gathered from emergency departments. In this study, we externally validated the modified CV SOFA score in multicenter intensive care unit (ICU) patients.

METHODS

A multicenter retrospective observational study was conducted on ICU patients at six hospitals in Korea. We included adult patients with sepsis who were admitted to ICUs. We compared the prognostic performance of the modified CV/total SOFA score and the original CV/total SOFA score in predicting 28-day mortality. Discrimination and calibration were evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) and the calibration curve, respectively.

RESULTS

We analyzed 1,015 ICU patients with sepsis. In overall patients, the 28-day mortality rate was 31.2%. The predictive validity of the modified CV SOFA (AUROC, 0.712; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.677-0.746; P < 0.001) was significantly higher than that of the original CV SOFA (AUROC, 0.644; 95% CI, 0.611-0.677). The predictive validity of modified total SOFA score for 28-day mortality was significantly higher than that of the original total SOFA (AUROC, 0.747 vs. 0.730; 95% CI, 0.715-0.779; P = 0.002). The calibration curve of the original CV SOFA for 28-day mortality showed poor calibration. In contrast, the calibration curve of the modified CV SOFA for 28-day mortality showed good calibration.

CONCLUSION

In patients with sepsis in the ICU, the modified SOFA score performed better than the original SOFA score in predicting 28-day mortality.

Prognostic Accuracy of SpO2-based Respiratory Sequential Organ Failure Assessment for Predicting In-hospital Mortality

Introduction

In this study we aimed to investigate the prognostic accuracy for predicting in-hospital mortality using respiratory Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) scores by the conventional method of missing-value imputation with normal partial pressure of oxygen (PaO2)- and oxygen saturation (SpO2)-based estimation methods.

Methods

This was a single-center, retrospective cohort study of patients with suspected infection in the emergency department. The primary outcome was in-hospital mortality. We compared the area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUROC) and calibration results of the conventional method (normal value imputation for missing PaO2) and six SpO2-based methods: using methods A, B, PaO2 is estimated by dividing SpO2 by a scale; with methods C and D, PaO2 was estimated by a mathematical model from a previous study; with methods E, F, respiratory SOFA scores was estimated by SpO2 thresholds and respiratory support use; with methods A, C, E are SpO2-based estimation for all PaO2 values, while methods B, D, F use such estimation only for missing PaO2 values.

Results

Among the 15,119 patients included in the study, the in-hospital mortality rate was 4.9%. The missing PaO2was 56.0%. The calibration plots were similar among all methods. Each method yielded AUROCs that ranged from 0.735-0.772. The AUROC for the conventional method was 0.755 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.736-0.773). The AUROC for method C (0.772; 95% CI 0.754-0.790) was higher than that of the conventional method, which was an SpO2-based estimation for all PaO2 values. The AUROC for total SOFA score from method E (0.815; 95% CI 0.800-0.831) was higher than that from the conventional method (0.806; 95% CI 0.790-0.822), in which respiratory SOFA was calculated by the predefined SpO2 cut-offs and oxygen support.

Conclusion

In non-ICU settings, respiratory SOFA scores estimated by SpO2 might have acceptable prognostic accuracy for predicting in-hospital mortality. Our results suggest that SpO2-based respiratory SOFA score calculation might be an alternative for evaluating respiratory organ failure in the ED and clinical research settings.

Validity of the total SOFA score in patients ≥ 80 years old acutely admitted to intensive care units: a post-hoc analysis of the VIP2 prospective, international cohort study

BACKGROUND

Little is known about the performance of the Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score in older critically ill adults. We aimed to evaluate the prognostic impact of physiological disturbances in the six organ systems included in the SOFA score.

METHODS

We analysed previously collected data from a prospective cohort study conducted between 2018 and 2019 in 22 countries. Consecutive patients ≥ 80 years old acutely admitted to intensive care units (ICUs) were eligible for inclusion. Patients were followed up for 30 days after admission to the ICU. We used logistic regression to study the association between increasing severity of organ dysfunction and mortality.

RESULTS

The median SOFA score among 3882 analysed patients was equal to 6 (IQR: 4-9). Mortality was equal to 26.1% (95% CI 24.7-27.5%) in the ICU and 38.7% (95% CI 37.1-40.2%) at day 30. Organ failure defined as a SOFA score ≥ 3 was associated with variable adjusted odds ratios (aORs) for ICU mortality dependant on the organ system affected: respiratory, 1.53 (95% CI 1.29-1.81); cardiovascular 1.69 (95% CI 1.43-2.01); hepatic, 1.74 (95% CI 0.97-3.15); renal, 1.87 (95% CI 1.48-2.35); central nervous system, 2.79 (95% CI 2.34-3.33); coagulation, 2.72 (95% CI 1.66-4.48). Modelling consecutive levels of organ dysfunction resulted in aORs equal to 0.57 (95% CI 0.33-1.00) when patients scored 2 points in the cardiovascular system and 1.01 (0.79-1.30) when the cardiovascular SOFA equalled 3.

CONCLUSIONS

Different components of the SOFA score have different prognostic implications for older critically ill adults. The cardiovascular component of the SOFA score requires revision.

Prognostic accuracy of initial and 24-h maximum SOFA scores of septic shock patients in the emergency department

Background

We compared the prognostic accuracy of in-hospital mortality of the initial Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFAini) score at the time of sepsis recognition and resuscitation and the maximum SOFA score (SOFAmax) using the worst variables in the 24 h after the initial score measurement in emergency department (ED) patients with septic shock.

Methods

This was a retrospective observational study using a multicenter prospective registry of septic shock patients in the ED between October 2015 and December 2019. The primary outcome was in-hospital mortality. The prognostic accuracies of SOFAini and SOFAmax were evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUC) curve.

Results

A total of 4860 patients was included, and the in-hospital mortality was 22.1%. In 59.7% of patients, SOFAmax increased compared with SOFAini, and the mean change of total SOFA score was 2.0 (standard deviation, 2.3). There was a significant difference in in-hospital mortality according to total SOFA score and the SOFA component scores, except cardiovascular SOFA score. The AUC of SOFAmax (0.71; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.69-0.72) was significantly higher than that of SOFAini (AUC, 0.67; 95% CI, 0.66-0.69) in predicting in-hospital mortality. The AUCs of all scores of the six components were higher for the maximum values.

Conclusion

The prognostic accuracy of the initial SOFA score at the time of sepsis recognition was lower than the 24-h maximal SOFA score in ED patients with septic shock. Follow-up assessments of organ failure may improve discrimination of the SOFA score for predicting mortality.

Machine learning models for prediction of invasion Klebsiella pneumoniae liver abscess syndrome in diabetes mellitus: a singled centered retrospective study

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to develop and validate a machine learning algorithm-based model for predicting invasive Klebsiella pneumoniae liver abscess syndrome(IKPLAS) in diabetes mellitus and compare the performance of different models.

METHODS

The clinical signs and data on the admission of 213 diabetic patients with Klebsiella pneumoniae liver abscesses were collected as variables. The optimal feature variables were screened out, and then Artificial Neural Network, Support Vector Machine, Logistic Regression, Random Forest, K-Nearest Neighbor, Decision Tree, and XGBoost models were established. Finally, the model's prediction performance was evaluated by the ROC curve, sensitivity (recall), specificity, accuracy, precision, F1-score, Average Precision, calibration curve, and DCA curve.

RESULTS

Four features of hemoglobin, platelet, D-dimer, and SOFA score were screened by the recursive elimination method, and seven prediction models were established based on these variables. The AUC (0.969), F1-Score(0.737), Sensitivity(0.875) and AP(0.890) of the SVM model were the highest among the seven models. The KNN model showed the highest specificity (1.000). Except that the XGB and DT models over-estimates the occurrence of IKPLAS risk, the other models' calibration curves are a good fit with the actual observed results. Decision Curve Analysis showed that when the risk threshold was between 0.4 and 0.8, the net rate of intervention of the SVM model was significantly higher than that of other models. In the feature importance ranking, the SOFA score impacted the model significantly.

CONCLUSION

An effective prediction model of invasion Klebsiella pneumoniae liver abscess syndrome in diabetes mellitus could be established by a machine learning algorithm, which had potential application value.

Association and prediction of red blood cell distribution width to albumin ratio in all-cause mortality of acute kidney injury in critically ill patients

Aim

The progression of acute kidney injury (AKI) might be associated with systemic inflammation. Our study aims to explore the association and predictive value of the red blood cell distribution width (RDW) to human serum albumin (ALB) ratio (RDW/ALB ratio), an inflammation-related indicator, in the risk of all-cause mortality and renal replacement therapy (RRT) in AKI patients admitted in intensive care units (ICU).

Methods

A retrospective cohort study was designed, and data were extracted from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care III (MIMIC-III). The primary outcome was the risk of all-cause mortality (1-month, 3-month, and 12-month), and the secondary outcome was the risk of RRT. The association between the RDW/ALB ratio and the risk of all-cause mortality and RRT was assessed using the Cox regression analysis, with results shown as hazard ratio (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). The relationship between the RDW/ALB ratio and crude probability of all-cause mortality or RRT was assessed using restricted cubic splines (RCS). The concordance index (C-index) was used to assess the discrimination of the prediction model.

Results

A total of 13,856 patients were included in our study. In the fully adjusted Cox regression model, we found that a high RDW/ALB ratio was associated with an increased risk of 1-month, 3-month, and 12-month all-cause mortality and RRT (all p &lt; 0.05). Moreover, RCS curves showed the linear relationship between the RDW/ALB ratio and the probability of all-cause mortality and RRT, and the probability was elevated with the increase of the ratio. In addition, the RDW/ALB ratio showed a good predictive performance in the risk of 1-month all-cause mortality, 3-month all-cause mortality, 12-month all-cause mortality, and RRT, with a C-index of 0.728 (95%CI: 0.719–0.737), 0.728 (95%CI: 0.721–0.735), 0.719 (95%CI: 0.713–0.725), and 0.883 (95%CI: 0.876–0.890), respectively.

Conclusion

The RDW/ALB ratio performed well to predict the risk of all-cause mortality and RRT in critically ill patients with AKI, indicating that this combined inflammatory indicator might be effective in clinical practice.

IDENTIFICATION OF SUBPHENOTYPES OF SEPSIS-ASSOCIATED LIVER DYSFUNCTION USING CLUSTER ANALYSIS

ABSTRACT

Objectives: We attempted to identify and validate the subphenotypes of sepsis-associated liver dysfunction (SALD) using routine clinical information. Design: This article is a retrospective observational cohort study. Setting: We used the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care IV database and the eICU Collaborative Research Database. Patients: We included adult patients (age ≥18 years) who developed SALD within the first 48 hours of intensive care unit (ICU) admission. We excluded patients who died or were discharged from the ICU within the first 48 hours of admission. Patients with abnormal liver function before ICU admission were also excluded. Measurements and Main Results: Patients in the MIMIC-IV 1.0 database served as a derivation cohort. Patients in the eICU database were used as validation cohort. We identified four subphenotypes of SALD (subphenotype α, β, γ, δ) using K-means cluster analysis in 5234 patients in derivation cohort. The baseline characteristics and clinical outcomes were compared between the phenotypes using one-way analysis of variance/Kruskal-Wallis test and the χ 2 test. Moreover, we used line charts to illustrate the trend of liver function parameters over 14 days after ICU admission. Subphenotype α (n = 1,055) was the most severe cluster, characterized by shock with multiple organ dysfunction (MODS) group. Subphenotype β (n = 1,179) had the highest median bilirubin level and the highest proportion of patients with underlying liver disease and coexisting coagulopathy (increased bilirubin group). Subphenotype γ (n = 1,661) was the cluster with the highest mean age and had the highest proportion of patients with chronic kidney disease (aged group). Subphenotype δ (n = 1,683) had the lowest 28-day and in-hospital mortality (mild group). The characteristics of clusters in the validation cohort were similar to those in the derivation cohort. In addition, we were surprised to find that GGT levels in subphenotype δ were significantly higher than in other subphenotypes, showing a different pattern from bilirubin. Conclusions: We identified four subphenotypes of SALD that presented with different clinical features and outcomes. These results can provide a valuable reference for understanding the clinical characteristics and associated outcomes to improve the management of patients with SALD in the ICU.

Critical care hepatology: definitions, incidence, prognosis and role of liver failure in critically ill patients

Organ dysfunction or overt failure is a commonplace event in the critically ill affecting up to 70% of patients during their stay in the ICU. The outcome depends on the resolution of impaired organ function, while a domino-like deterioration of organs other than the primarily affected ones paves the way for increased mortality. “Acute Liver Failure” was defined in the 1970s as a rare and potentially reversible severe liver injury in the absence of prior liver disease with hepatic encephalopathy occurring within 8 weeks. Dysfunction of the liver in general reflects a critical event in “Multiple Organ Dysfunction Syndrome” due to immunologic, regulatory and metabolic functions of liver parenchymal and non-parenchymal cells. Dysregulation of the inflammatory response, persistent microcirculatory (hypoxic) impairment or drug-induced liver injury are leading problems that result in “secondary liver failure,” i.e., acquired liver injury without underlying liver disease or deterioration of preexisting (chronic) liver disease (“Acute-on-Chronic Liver Failure”). Conventional laboratory markers, such as transaminases or bilirubin, are limited to provide insight into the complex facets of metabolic and immunologic liver dysfunction. Furthermore, inhomogeneous definitions of these entities lead to widely ranging estimates of incidence. In the present work, we review the different definitions to improve the understanding of liver dysfunction as a perpetrator (and therapeutic target) of multiple organ dysfunction syndrome in critical care.

Graphic Abstract

Modified cardiovascular SOFA score in sepsis: development and internal and external validation

BACKGROUND

The Sepsis-3 criteria introduced the system that uses the Sequential Organ-Failure Assessment (SOFA) score to define sepsis. The cardiovascular SOFA (CV SOFA) scoring system needs modification due to the change in guideline-recommended vasopressors. In this study, we aimed to develop and to validate the modified CV SOFA score.

METHODS

We developed, internally validated, and externally validated the modified CV SOFA score using the suspected infection cohort, sepsis cohort, and septic shock cohort. The primary outcome was 28-day mortality. The modified CV SOFA score system was constructed with consideration of the recently recommended use of the vasopressor norepinephrine with or without lactate level. The predictive validity of the modified SOFA score was evaluated by the discrimination for the primary outcome. Discrimination was assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUC). Calibration was assessed using the calibration curve. We compared the prognostic performance of the original CV/total SOFA score and the modified CV/total SOFA score to detect mortality in patients with suspected infection, sepsis, or septic shock.

RESULTS

We identified 7,393 patients in the suspected cohort, 4038 patients in the sepsis cohort, and 3,107 patients in the septic shock cohort in seven Korean emergency departments (EDs). The 28-day mortality rates were 7.9%, 21.4%, and 20.5%, respectively, in the suspected infection, sepsis, and septic shock cohorts. The model performance is higher when vasopressor and lactate were used in combination than the vasopressor only used model. The modified CV/total SOFA score was well-developed and internally and externally validated in terms of discrimination and calibration. Predictive validity of the modified CV SOFA was significantly higher than that of the original CV SOFA in the development set (0.682 vs 0.624, p < 0.001), test set (0.716 vs 0.638), and all other cohorts (0.648 vs 0.557, 0.674 vs 0.589). Calibration was modest. In the suspected infection cohort, the modified model classified more patients to sepsis (66.0 vs 62.5%) and identified more patients at risk of septic mortality than the SOFA score (92.6 vs 89.5%).

CONCLUSIONS

Among ED patients with suspected infection, sepsis, and septic shock, the newly-developed modified CV/total SOFA score had higher predictive validity and identified more patients at risk of septic mortality.

Association of Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) components with mortality

BACKGROUND

Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) is a practical method to describe and quantify the presence and severity of organ system dysfunctions and failures. Some proposals suggest that SOFA could be employed as an endpoint in trials. To justify this, all SOFA component scores should reflect organ dysfunctions of comparable severity. We aimed to investigate whether the associations of different SOFA components with in-hospital mortality are comparable.

METHODS

We performed a study based on nationwide register data on adult patients admitted to 26 Finnish intensive care units (ICUs) during 2012-2015. We determined the SOFA score as the maximum score in the first 24 hours after ICU admission. We defined organ failure (OF) as an organ-specific SOFA score of three or higher. We evaluated the association of different SOFA component scores with mortality.

RESULTS

Our study population comprised 63,756 ICU patients. Overall hospital mortality was 10.7%. In-hospital mortality was 22.5% for patients with respiratory failure, 34.8% for those with coagulation failure, 40.1% for those with hepatic failure, 14.9% for those with cardiovascular failure, 26.9% for those with neurologic failure and 34.6% for the patients with renal failure. Among patients with comparable total SOFA scores, the risk of death was lower in patients with cardiovascular OF compared with patients with other OFs.

CONCLUSIONS

All SOFA components are associated with mortality, but their weights are not comparable. High scores of other organ systems mean a higher risk of death than high cardiovascular scores. The scoring of cardiovascular dysfunction needs to be updated.

Albumin levels predict mortality in sepsis patients with acute kidney injury undergoing continuous renal replacement therapy: a secondary analysis based on a retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Albumin (ALB) levels are negatively associated with mortality in patients with sepsis. However, among sepsis patients with acute kidney injury (AKI) undergoing continuous renal replacement therapy (CRRT), there has been no similar study on the correlation between ALB levels and mortality alone. This study tested the hypothesis that ALB levels are negatively associated with mortality among such patients.

METHODS

We conducted a secondary analysis of 794 septic patients who were diagnosed with AKI and underwent CRRT in South Korea. For the Kaplan-Meier survival analysis, Cox proportional hazards models were used to study the hypotheses, with adjustments for the pertinent covariables. We also explore the possible nonlinear relationship and conducted sensitivity analyses including subgroup analyses and tests for interactions to investigate the association further. Additionally, ALB was used to construct model and we then compared the performance of ALB with that of APACHE II and SOFA in predicting mortality.

RESULTS

The ALB level was an independent prognostic factor for death at 28 and 90 days after CRRT initiation (HR = 0.75, 95% CI: 0.62-0.90, P = 0.0024 for death at 28 days and HR = 0.73, 95% CI: 0.63-0.86, P < 0.0001 for death at 90 days). A nonlinear association was not identified between ALB levels and the endpoints. Subgroup analyses and tests for interactions indicated that HCO₃ and CRP played an interactive role in the association. ROC analysis indicated ALB, SOFA and APACHE-II were separately inadequate for clinical applications.

CONCLUSION

A 1 g/dL increase in ALB levels was independently associated with a 25 and 27% decrease in the risk of death at 28 and 90 days, respectively. However, this conclusion needs to be taken with caution as this study has several limitations.

Evaluating a digital sepsis alert in a London multisite hospital network: a natural experiment using electronic health record data

Objective

The study sought to determine the impact of a digital sepsis alert on patient outcomes in a UK multisite hospital network.

Materials and Methods

A natural experiment utilizing the phased introduction (without randomization) of a digital sepsis alert into a multisite hospital network. Sepsis alerts were either visible to clinicians (patients in the intervention group) or running silently and not visible (the control group). Inverse probability of treatment-weighted multivariable logistic regression was used to estimate the effect of the intervention on individual patient outcomes.

Outcomes

In-hospital 30-day mortality (all inpatients), prolonged hospital stay (≥7 days) and timely antibiotics (≤60 minutes of the alert) for patients who alerted in the emergency department.

Results

The introduction of the alert was associated with lower odds of death (odds ratio, 0.76; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.70-0.84; n = 21 183), lower odds of prolonged hospital stay ≥7 days (OR, 0.93; 95% CI, 0.88-0.99; n = 9988), and in patients who required antibiotics, an increased odds of receiving timely antibiotics (OR, 1.71; 95% CI, 1.57-1.87; n = 4622).

Discussion

Current evidence that digital sepsis alerts are effective is mixed. In this large UK study, a digital sepsis alert has been shown to be associated with improved outcomes, including timely antibiotics. It is not known whether the presence of alerting is responsible for improved outcomes or whether the alert acted as a useful driver for quality improvement initiatives.

Conclusions

These findings strongly suggest that the introduction of a network-wide digital sepsis alert is associated with improvements in patient outcomes, demonstrating that digital based interventions can be successfully introduced and readily evaluated.

Mortality related to drug-resistant organisms in surgical sepsis-3: an 8-year time trend study using sequential organ failure assessment scores

The difference in sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) scores from the baseline to sepsis is a known predictor of sepsis-3 outcome, but the prognostic value of drug-resistant organisms for mortality is unexplained. We employed sepsis stewardship and herein report an observational study. Study subjects were patients admitted to the Departments of Surgery/Chest Surgery from 2011 through 2018 with a diagnosis of sepsis and a SOFA score of 2 or more. Our sepsis stewardship methods included antimicrobial and diagnostic stewardship and infection control. We determined the primary endpoint as in-hospital death and the secondary endpoint as the annual trend of the risk-adjusted mortality ratio (RAMR). For mortality, we performed logistic regression analysis based on SOFA score, age, sex, comorbid disease, and the presence of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) and extended-spectrum beta-lactamase inhibitor–producing bacteria. In a total of 457 patients, two factors were significant predictors for fatality, i.e., SOFA score of 9 or more with an odds ratio (OR) 4.921 and 95% confidence interval [95% CI] 1.968–12.302 (P = 0.001) and presence of MRSA with an OR 1.83 and 95% CI 1.003–3.338 (P = 0.049). RAMR showed a decrease during the study years (P < 0.05). Early detection of MRSA may help patients survive surgical sepsis-3. Thus, MRSA-oriented diagnosis may play a role in expediting treatment with anti-MRSA antimicrobials.

Time to Recognition of Sepsis in the Emergency Department Using Electronic Health Record Data: A Comparative Analysis of Systemic Inflammatory Response Syndrome, Sequential Organ Failure Assessment, and Quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment

OBJECTIVES

Early identification of sepsis is critical to improving patient outcomes. Impact of the new sepsis definition (Sepsis-3) on timing of recognition in the emergency department has not been evaluated. Our study objective was to compare time to meeting systemic inflammatory response syndrome (Sepsis-2) criteria, Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (Sepsis-3) criteria, and quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment criteria using electronic health record data.

DESIGN

Retrospective, observational study.

SETTING

The emergency department at the University of California, San Francisco.

PATIENTS

Emergency department encounters between June 2012 and December 2016 for patients greater than or equal to 18 years old with blood cultures ordered, IV antibiotic receipt, and identification with sepsis via systemic inflammatory response syndrome or Sequential Organ Failure Assessment within 72 hours of emergency department presentation.

INTERVENTIONS

None.

MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS

We analyzed timestamped electronic health record data from 16,612 encounters identified as sepsis by greater than or equal to 2 systemic inflammatory response syndrome criteria or a Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score greater than or equal to 2. The primary outcome was time from emergency department presentation to meeting greater than or equal to 2 systemic inflammatory response syndrome criteria, Sequential Organ Failure Assessment greater than or equal to 2, and/or greater than or equal to 2 quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment criteria. There were 9,087 patients (54.7%) that met systemic inflammatory response syndrome-first a median of 26 minutes post-emergency department presentation (interquartile range, 0-109 min), with 83.1% meeting Sequential Organ Failure Assessment criteria a median of 118 minutes later (interquartile range, 44-401 min). There were 7,037 patients (42.3%) that met Sequential Organ Failure Assessment-first, a median of 113 minutes post-emergency department presentation (interquartile range, 60-251 min). Quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment was met in 46.4% of patients a median of 351 minutes post-emergency department presentation (interquartile range, 67-1,165 min). Adjusted odds of in-hospital mortality were 39% greater in patients who met systemic inflammatory response syndrome-first compared with those who met Sequential Organ Failure Assessment-first (odds ratio, 1.39; 95% CI, 1.20-1.61).

CONCLUSIONS

Systemic inflammatory response syndrome and Sequential Organ Failure Assessment initially identified distinct populations. Using systemic inflammatory response syndrome resulted in earlier electronic health record sepsis identification in greater than 50% of patients. Using Sequential Organ Failure Assessment alone may delay identification. Using systemic inflammatory response syndrome alone may lead to missed sepsis presenting as acute organ dysfunction. Thus, a combination of inflammatory (systemic inflammatory response syndrome) and organ dysfunction (Sequential Organ Failure Assessment) criteria may enhance timely electronic health record-based sepsis identification.

Early noncardiovascular organ failure and mortality in the cardiac intensive care unit

Background

Noncardiac organ failure has been associated with worse outcomes among a cardiac intensive care unit (CICU) population.

Hypothesis

We hypothesized that early organ failure based on the sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) score would be associated with mortality in CICU patients.

Methods

Adult CICU patients from 2007 to 2015 were reviewed. Organ failure was defined as any SOFA organ subscore ≥3 on the first CICU day. Organ failure was evaluated as a predictor of hospital mortality and postdischarge survival after adjustment for illness severity and comorbidities.

Results

We included 10 004 patients with a mean age of 67 ± 15 years (37% female). Admission diagnoses included acute coronary syndrome in 43%, heart failure in 46%, cardiac arrest in 12%, and cardiogenic shock in 11%. Organ failure was present in 31%, including multiorgan failure in 12%. Hospital mortality was higher in patients with organ failure (22% vs 3%, adjusted OR 3.0, 95% CI 2.5‐3.7, P < .001). After adjustment, each failing organ system predicted twofold higher odds of hospital mortality (adjusted OR 1.9, 95% CI 1.1‐2.1, P < .001). Mortality risk was highest with cardiovascular, coagulation and liver failure. Among hospital survivors, organ failure was associated with higher adjusted postdischarge mortality risk (P < .001); multiorgan failure did not confer added long‐term mortality risk.

Conclusions

Early noncardiovascular organ failure, especially multiorgan failure, is associated with increased hospital mortality in CICU patients, and this risk continues after hospital discharge, emphasizing the need to promote early recognition of organ failure in CICU patients.