The changing relationship between bacterial STIs and HIV prevalence in South Africa - an ecological study

Variations in sexual network connectivity may explain dramatic variations in sexually transmitted infection prevalence between populations and over time: a selected four-country analysis

Background: The incidence of sexually transmitted infections (STIs) has been noted to vary dramatically between population groups and over time. Here, the hypothesis that changes in network connectivity underpin these changes is explored.

Methods: The incidence/prevalence estimates of HIV, herpes simplex virus-2, syphilis, chlamydia, and gonorrhoea, as well as two markers of sexual network connectivity (partner concurrency and multiple partnering) by ethnic group and sexual orientation in Kenya, South Africa, the United Kingdom (UK) and the United States (USA) were extracted from published studies. Pearson’s correlation was used to test the association between the markers of network connectivity and the incidence/prevalence of these five STIs. A literature review was performed to evaluate the possible causes of the increases and decreases in syphilis incidence over the past 60 years.

Results: In each country, the five STIs were found to cluster in particular ethnic groups and sexual orientations and to be positively associated with the two markers of network connectivity. Syphilis incidence in the UK and USA was found to increase dramatically in the 1960s/1970s, decline in the 1980s and again increase in the late 1990s. These changes took place predominantly in men who have sex with men, and were preceded by corresponding changes in network connectivity. The large decline in antenatal syphilis prevalence in Kenya and South Africa in the 1990s were likewise preceded by declines in network connectivity.

Conclusions: Although other explanatory variables are not controlled for, the present analysis is compatible with the hypothesis that differential network connectivity is a parsimonious explanation for variations in STI incidence over time and between populations.

Epidemiology of Treponema pallidum, Chlamydia trachomatis, Neisseria gonorrhoeae, Trichomonas vaginalis, and herpes simplex virus type 2 among female sex workers in the Middle East and North Africa: systematic review and meta-analytics

BACKGROUND

The epidemiology of sexually transmitted infections (STIs) and the role of commercial heterosexual sex networks in driving STI transmission in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region remain largely unknown.

OBJECTIVE

To characterize the epidemiology of Treponema pallidum (syphilis), Chlamydia trachomatis, Neisseria gonorrhoeae, Trichomonas vaginalis, and herpes simplex virus type 2 (HSV-2) among female sex workers (FSWs) in MENA using an in-depth quantitative assessment.

METHODS

A systematic review on ten international, regional, and country-level databases was conducted, and reported following PRISMA guidelines. Pooled prevalences of current and/or ever infection for each STI were estimated using random-effects meta-analyses. Sources of between-study heterogeneity were investigated through random-effects meta-regressions.

RESULTS

One T. pallidum incidence study and 144 STI prevalence studies were identified for 45 812 FSWs in 13 MENA countries. The pooled prevalence of current infection was 12.7% (95% confidence interval (CI) = 8.5%-17.7%) for T. pallidum, 14.4% (95% CI = 8.2%-22.0%) for C. trachomatis, 5.7% (95% CI = 3.5%-8.4%) for N. gonorrhoeae, and 7.1% (95% CI = 4.3%-10.5%) for T. vaginalis. The pooled prevalence of ever infection (seropositivity using antibody testing) was 12.8% (95% CI = 9.4%-16.6%) for T. pallidum, 80.3% (95% CI = 53.2%-97.6%) for C. trachomatis, and 23.7% (95% CI = 10.2%-40.4%) for HSV-2. The multivariable meta-regression for T. pallidum infection demonstrated strong subregional differences, with the Horn of Africa and North Africa showing, respectively 6-fold (adjusted odds ratio (AOR): 6.4; 95% CI = 2.5-16.7) and 5-fold (AOR = 5.0; 95% CI = 2.5-10.6) higher odds of infection than Eastern MENA. There was also strong evidence for declining T. pallidum odds of infection at 7% per year (AOR = 0.93; 95% CI = 0.88-0.98). Study-specific factors including diagnostic method, sample size, sampling methodology, and response rate, were not associated with syphilis infection. The multivariable model explained 48.5% of the variation in T. pallidum prevalence.

CONCLUSIONS

STI infection levels among FSWs in MENA are considerable, supporting a key role for commercial heterosexual sex networks in transmission dynamics, and highlighting the health needs of this neglected and vulnerable population. Syphilis prevalence in FSWs appears to have been declining for at least three decades. Gaps in evidence persist for multiple countries.

Adult gonorrhea, chlamydia and syphilis prevalence, incidence, treatment and syndromic case reporting in South Africa: Estimates using the Spectrum-STI model, 1990-2017

OBJECTIVES

To estimate trends in prevalence and incidence of syphilis, gonorrhea and chlamydia in adult men and women in South Africa.

METHODS

The Spectrum-STI tool estimated trends in prevalence and incidence of active syphilis, gonorrhea and chlamydia, fitting South African prevalence data. Results were used, alongside programmatic surveillance data, to estimate trends in incident gonorrhea cases resistant to first-line treatment, and the reporting gap of symptomatic male gonorrhea and chlamydia cases treated but not reported as cases of urethritis syndrome.

RESULTS

In 2017 adult (15-49 years) the estimated female and male prevalences for syphilis were 0.50% (95% CI: 0.32-0.80%) and 0.97% (0.19-2.28%), for gonorrhea 6.6% (3.8-10.8%) and 3.5% (1.7-6.1%), and for chlamydia 14.7% (9.9-21%) and 6.0% (3.8-10.4%), respectively. Between 1990 and 2017 the estimated prevalence of syphilis declined steadily in women and men, probably in part reflecting improved treatment coverage. For gonorrhea and chlamydia, estimated prevalence and incidence showed no consistent time trend in either women or men. Despite growing annual numbers of gonorrhea cases - reflecting population growth - the estimated number of first line treatment-resistant gonorrhea cases did not increase between 2008 and 2017, owing to changes in first-line antimicrobial treatment regimens for gonorrhea in 2008 and 2014/5. Case reporting completeness among treated male urethritis syndrome episodes was estimated at 10-28% in 2017.

CONCLUSION

South Africa continues to suffer a high STI burden. Improvements in access and quality of maternal, STI and HIV health care services likely contributed to the decline in syphilis prevalence. The lack of any decline in gonorrhea and chlamydia prevalence highlights the need to enhance STI services beyond clinic-based syndromic case management, to reinvigorate primary STI and HIV prevention and, especially for women, to screen for asymptomatic infections.

Trends and Predictors of Syphilis Prevalence in the General Population: Global Pooled Analyses of 1103 Prevalence Measures Including 136 Million Syphilis Tests

Background

This study assessed levels, trends, and associations of observed syphilis prevalence in the general adult population using global pooled analyses.

Methods

A standardized database of syphilis prevalence was compiled by pooling systematically gathered data. Random-effects meta-analyses and meta-regressions were conducted using data from the period 1990-2016 to estimate pooled measures and assess predictors and trends. Countries were classified by World Health Organization region. Sensitivity analyses were conducted.

Results

The database included 1103 prevalence measures from 136 million syphilis tests across 154 countries (85% from women in antenatal care). Global pooled mean prevalence (weighted by region population size) was 1.11% (95% confidence interval [CI], .99-1.22). Prevalence predictors were region, diagnostic assay, sample size, and calendar year interacting with region. Compared to the African Region, the adjusted odds ratio (AOR) was 0.42 (95% CI, .33-.54) for the Region of the Americas, 0.13 (95% CI, .09-.19) for the Eastern Mediterranean Region, 0.05 (95% CI, .03-.07) for the European Region, 0.21 (95% CI, .16-.28) for the South-East Asia Region, and 0.41 (95% CI, .32-.53) for the Western Pacific Region. Treponema pallidum hemagglutination assay (TPHA) only or rapid plasma reagin (RPR) only, compared with dual RPR/TPHA diagnosis, produced higher prevalence (AOR >1.26), as did smaller sample-size studies (<500 persons) (AOR >2.16). Prevalence declined in all regions; the annual AORs ranged from 0.84 (95% CI, .79-.90) in the Eastern Mediterranean to 0.97 (95% CI, .97-1.01) in the Western Pacific. The pooled mean male-to-female prevalence ratio was 1.00 (95% CI, .89-1.13). Sensitivity analyses confirmed robustness of results.

Conclusions

Syphilis prevalence has declined globally over the past 3 decades. Large differences in prevalence persist among regions, with the African Region consistently the most affected.

An Update on the Global Epidemiology of Syphilis

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Syphilis continues to cause morbidity and mortality worldwide. While syphilis infection is easily identifiable and treatable, rates of syphilis infection continue to increase among select populations in high-income countries and remain at endemic levels in low- and middle-income counties.

RECENT FINDINGS

World Health Organization recommended strategies have led to the dual elimination of mother-to-child transmission of syphilis and HIV in several countries, however outbreaks among select populations need to be adequately addressed.

SUMMARY

Continued vigilance and investment is needed to address syphilis worldwide. The epidemiology of syphilis differs in high-income and low- and middle-income counties.

Strong associations between national prevalence of various STIs suggests sexual network connectivity is a common underpinning risk factor

Background

If national peak Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) prevalence is positively associated with the prevalence of other sexually transmitted infections (STIs) from before or early on in the HIV epidemics this would suggest common underlying drivers.

Methods

Pearson’s correlations were calculated between the prevalence of seven STIs at a country-level: chlamydia, gonorrhoea, trichomoniasis, syphilis, bacterial vaginosis, herpes simplex virus-2 (HSV-2) and HIV.

Results

The prevalence of all the STIs was highest in the sub-Saharan African region excluding chlamydia. The prevalence of all seven STIs were positively correlated excluding chlamydia. The correlations were strongest for HIV-HSV-2 (r = 0.85, P < 0.0001) and HSV-2-trichomoniasis (r = 0.82, P < 0.0001).

Conclusion

Our results of a generally positive association between the prevalences of a range of STIs suggests that higher prevalences were driven by common underlying determinants. We review different types of evidence which suggest that differential sexual connectivity is a plausible common determinant.

The Prevalence of Syphilis from the Early HIV Period is Correlated With Peak HIV Prevalence at a Country Level

BACKGROUND

Could we have predicted national peak HIV based on syphilis prevalence in the 1990s? Earlier studies have shown positive correlations between various sexually transmitted infections at different population levels. In this article, we test the hypothesis that there was a residual variation in the national prevalence rates of syphilis and that these rates could predict subsequent peak HIV prevalence rates.

METHODS

This analysis uses linear regression to evaluate the country-level relationship between antenatal syphilis prevalence (1990-1999) and peak HIV prevalence. Antenatal syphilis data were taken from an Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation database on the prevalence of syphilis in low-risk populations. Peak HIV prevalence was calculated based on data taken from the Global Health Observatory Data Repository of the World Health Organization.

RESULTS

A moderately strong association is found for the 76 countries with data available (R = 0.53, P < 0.001). The association was weakened but remained significantly positive when we adjusted for the type of syphilis testing used.

CONCLUSIONS

Syphilis prevalence in the 1990s predicted approximately 53% of the variation in peak HIV prevalence. Populations with generalized HIV epidemics had a higher prevalence of syphilis in the pre-HIV period. This finding provides additional rationale to carefully monitor sexual behavior, sexual networks, and sexually transmitted infection incidence in these populations.

The Global Epidemiology of Syphilis in the Past Century - A Systematic Review Based on Antenatal Syphilis Prevalence

BACKGROUND

How can we explain the uneven decline of syphilis around the world following the introduction of penicillin? In this paper we use antenatal syphilis prevalence (ASP) to investigate how syphilis prevalence varied worldwide in the past century, and what risk factors correlate with this variance.

METHODS

1) A systematic review using PubMed and Google Scholar was conducted to identify countries with published data relating to ASP estimates from before 1952 until the present. Eleven countries were identified (Canada, Denmark, Finland, India, Japan, Norway, Singapore, South Africa, United States of America (USA), United Kingdom (UK) and Zimbabwe). The ASP epidemic curve for each population was depicted graphically. In South Africa and the USA, results are reported separately for the black and white populations. 2) National antenatal syphilis prevalence estimates for 1990 to 1999 and 2008 were taken from an Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation database on the prevalence of syphilis in low risk populations compiled for the Global Burden of Diseases study and from a recent review paper respectively. National ASPs were depicted graphically and regional median ASPs were calculated for both time periods. 3) Linear regression was used to test for an association between ASP in 1990-1999 and 2008 and four risk factors (efficacy of syphilis screening/treatment, health expenditure, GDP per capita and circumcision prevalence). WHO world regions were included as potential explanatory variables.

RESULTS

In most populations, ASP dropped to under 1% before 1960. In Zimbabwe and black South Africans, ASP was high in the pre-penicillin period, dropped in the post-penicillin period, but then plateaued at around 6% until the end of the 20th century when ASP dropped to just above 1%. In black Americans, ASP declined in the post penicillin period, but plateaued at 3-5% thereafter. ASP was statistically significantly higher in sub-Saharan Africa in 1990-1999 and 2008 than in the other world regions (P < 0.001). On multivariate analysis in both time periods, ASP was only associated with residence in sub-Saharan Africa.

CONCLUSIONS

Further research is necessary to elucidate the reasons for the higher prevalence of syphilis in sub-Saharan Africa.

Strong Country Level Correlation between Syphilis and HSV-2 Prevalence

Background. Syphilis is curable but Herpes Simplex Virus-2 (HSV-2) is not. As a result, the prevalence of syphilis but not HSV-2 may be influenced by the efficacy of national STI screening and treatment capacity. If the prevalence of syphilis and HSV-2 is found to be correlated, then this makes it more likely that something other than differential STI treatment is responsible for variations in the prevalence of both HSV-2 and syphilis. Methods. Simple linear regression was used to evaluate the relationship between national antenatal syphilis prevalence and HSV-2 prevalence in women in two time periods: 1990–1999 and 2008. Adjustments were performed for the laboratory syphilis testing algorithm used and the prevalence of circumcision. Results. The prevalence of syphilis was positively correlated with that of HSV-2 for both time periods (adjusted correlations, 20–24-year-olds: 1990–99: R² = 0.54, P < 0.001; 2008: R² = 0.41, P < 0.001 and 40–44-year-olds: 1990–99: R² = 0.42, P < 0.001; 2008: R² = 0.49, P < 0.001). Conclusion. The prevalence of syphilis and HSV-2 is positively correlated. This could be due to a common set of risk factors underpinning both STIs.

Did AIDS mortality decrease the number of lifetime sexual partners in Kenya: an ecological analysis?

We assessed if there has been a decline in the median number of reported lifetime sexual partners in Kenya following the AIDS epidemic. The Wilcoxon rank-sum test was used to compare the median and interquartile range (IQR) of the number of lifetime sexual partners for men aged 20-54 years in the 1993 and 2008 Kenyan Demographic Health Surveys. The median number of sexual partners in 1993 increased rapidly to 10 partners reported at age 30 years then plateaued at this level. In 2008, the median number of sexual partners plateaued at around half the value of the 1993 plateau. The median number of lifetime sexual partners for men aged 20-54 years declined from 10 (IQR 4-20) in 1993 to 3 (IQR 2-7) in 2008 (P < 0·001). This decline could be due to a combination of the effects of AIDS mortality and a misreporting bias.

The Prevalence of HIV by Ethnic Group Is Correlated with HSV-2 and Syphilis Prevalence in Kenya, South Africa, the United Kingdom, and the United States

Background. This paper investigates two issues: do ethnic/racial groups with high HIV prevalences also have higher prevalences of other STIs? and is HIV prevalence by ethnic group correlated with the prevalence of circumcision, concurrency, or having more than one partner in the preceding year? Methods. We used Spearman's correlation to estimate the association between the prevalence of HIV per ethnic/racial group and HSV-2, syphilis, symptoms of an STI, having more than one partner in the past year, concurrency, and circumcision in Kenya, South Africa, the United Kingdom, and the United States. Results. We found that in each country HSV-2, syphilis, and symptomatic STIs were positively correlated with HIV prevalence (HSV-2: Kenya rho = 0.50, P = 0.207; South Africa rho-1, P = 0.000; USA rho-1, P = 0.000, Syphilis: Kenya rho = 0.33, P = 0.420; South Africa rho-1, P = 0.000; USA rho-1, P = 0.000, and STI symptoms: Kenya rho = 0.92, P = 0.001; South Africa rho-1, P = 0.000; UK rho = 0.87, P = 0.058; USA rho-1, P = 0.000). The prevalence of circumcision was only negatively associated with HIV prevalence in Kenya. Both having more than one partner in the previous year and concurrency were positively associated with HIV prevalence in all countries (concurrency: Kenya rho = 0.79, P = 0.036; South Africa rho-1, P = 0.000; UK 0.87, P = 0.058; USA rho-1, P = 0.000 and multiple partners: Kenya rho = 0.82, P = 0.023; South Africa rho-1, P = 0.000; UK rho = 0.87, P = 0.058; USA rho-1, P = 0.000). Not all associations were statistically significant. Conclusion. Further attention needs to be directed to what determines higher rates of partner change and concurrency in communities with high STI prevalence.