Modeling costs and benefits of the organized colorectal cancer screening programme and its potential future improvements in Hungary

Roadmap to improve the organized cancer screening programs - The case of colorectal cancer screening in Montenegro

BACKGROUND

Implementation of organized cancer screening programs comes with many challenges and barriers, which may inhibit the achievement of the screening activities' desired benefits. In this paper we outline a plan for improving the colorectal cancer (CRC) screening system in Montenegro.

METHODS

We formulated a roadmap, which was generally defined as a country-specific strategic plan to improve cancer screening programs. The roadmap development was an iterative, step-by-step process. First, we described the current screening program, then identified and described key barriers, and finally proposed actions to overcome them. Multiple sources of information (e.g., documents, expert opinions) were collected and processed by local and international stakeholders.

RESULTS

The CRC screening program was implemented between 2013-2019 by gradually increasing the invitation of the target population. Key barriers of the implementation were defined: 1) Lack of colonoscopy capacity in the northern part of the country; 2) Inadequate information technology systems; 3) Inadequate public promotion of screening. The defined actions were related to overcoming lack of available resources (e.g., financial, human and technological), to improve the policy environment and the knowledge, and to facilitate information sharing.

CONCLUSION

The collaboration between local stakeholders of CRC screening and researchers experienced in planning and evaluating screening programs resulted in the first comprehensive description of CRC screening in Montenegro, detailed understanding of key barriers that emerged during implementation and a carefully designed list of actions. The implementation of these actions and the evaluation of whether barriers were solved will be captured in the upcoming period by maintaining this collaboration.

Long-term trends in the burden of colorectal cancer in Europe over three decades: a joinpoint regression and age-period-cohort analysis

Background

The burden of colorectal cancer (CRC) in Europe is at a high level, but the epidemiological features have not yet been systematically studied. This study aimed to provide a timely and reliable assessment of the burden and trends of CRC in Europe to provide a scientific basis for its prevention and treatment.

Methods

We analyzed data on CRC in 44 European countries between 1990 and 2019 from the Global Burden of Disease study (GBD) 2019. In addition, the joinpoint regression model was applied to reflect temporal trends. The age-period-cohort model was constructed to explore age, period, and birth cohort effects that influence the risk of morbidity and mortality.

Results

In Europe, new cases, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and deaths of CRC rose by 70.01%, 22.88% and 38.04% from 1990 to 2019, respectively. The age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) has increased, while age-standardized DALY rate and age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) have declined. We found that men experienced a significantly higher CRC burden than women. Age-period-cohort analysis showed that the risk of incidence and mortality increased with age and time; and it was lower in the later-born cohort than the earlier-born cohort.

Conclusion

ASIR for CRC in Europe generally trended upwards from 1990 to 2019, stabilizing in recent years but still at a high level. CRC burden varied considerably in different countries. There was a pronounced gender difference in CRC burden, and middle-aged and older men should be a priority population for CRC prevention and treatment.

A Systematic Review of Cost-Effectiveness Analyses of Colorectal Cancer Screening in Europe: Have Studies Included Optimal Screening Intensities?

OBJECTIVE

To assess the range of strategies analysed in European cost-effectiveness analyses (CEAs) of colorectal cancer (CRC) screening with respect to the screening intervals, age ranges and test cut-offs used to define positivity, to examine how this might influence what strategies are found to be optimal, and compare them with the current screening policies with a focus on the screening interval.

METHODS

We searched PubMed, Web of Science and Scopus for peer-reviewed, model-based CEAs of CRC screening. We included studies on average-risk European populations using the guaiac faecal occult blood test (gFOBT) or faecal immunochemical test (FIT). We adapted Drummond's ten-point checklist to appraise study quality.

RESULTS

We included 39 studies that met the inclusion criteria. Biennial screening was the most frequently used interval which was analysed in 37 studies. Annual screening was assessed in 13 studies, all of which found it optimally cost-effective. Despite this, 25 of 26 European stool-based programmes use biennial screening. Many CEAs did not vary the age range, but the 14 that did generally found broader ranges optimal. Only 11 studies considered alternative FIT cut-offs, 9 of which found lower cut-offs superior. Conflicts between current policy and CEA evidence are less clear regarding age ranges and cut-offs.

CONCLUSIONS

The existing CEA evidence indicates that the widely adopted biennial frequency of stool-based testing in Europe is suboptimal. It is likely that many more lives could be saved throughout Europe if programmes could be offered with more intensive annual screening.

Overcoming barriers: Modelling the effect of potential future changes of organized breast cancer screening in Italy

OBJECTIVES

Organized breast cancer screening may not achieve its full potential due to organizational and cultural barriers. In Italy, two identified barriers were low attendance in Southern Italy and, in Italy as a whole, underscreening and overscreening in parts of the eligible population. The objective of this study was to identify potential changes to overcome these barriers and to quantify their costs and effects.

METHODS

To assess the impact of potential measures to improve breast cancer screening in Italy, we performed an evaluation of costs and effects for increasing adherence for Southern Italy and harmonizing screening intervals (biennial screening) for the whole of Italy, using an online tool (EU-TOPIA evaluation tool) based on the MIcrosimulation SCreening ANalysis (MISCAN) model.

RESULTS

Increasing adherence in Southern Italy through investing in mobile screening units has an acceptable cost-effectiveness ratio of €9531 per quality-adjusted life year gained. Harmonizing the screening interval by investing in measures to reduce opportunistic screening and simultaneously investing in mobile screening units to reduce underscreening is predicted to gain 1% fewer life-years, while saving 19% of total screening costs compared to the current situation.

CONCLUSIONS

Increasing adherence in Southern Italy and harmonizing the screening interval could result in substantial improvements at acceptable costs, or in the same benefits at lower costs. This example illustrates a systematic approach that can be easily applied to other European countries, as the online tools can be used by stakeholders to quantify effects and costs of a broad range of specific barriers, and ways to overcome them.

Effectiveness of artificial intelligence-assisted colonoscopy in early diagnosis of colorectal cancer: a systematic review

INTRODUCTION

As artificial intelligence (AI)-assisted diagnosis gained immense popularity, it is imperative to consider its utility and efficiency in the early diagnosis of colorectal cancer (CRC), responsible for over 1.8 million cases and 881 000 deaths globally, as reported in 2018. Improved adenoma detection rate, as well as better characterizations of polyps, are significant advantages of AI-assisted colonoscopy (AIC). This systematic review (SR) investigates the effectiveness of AIC in the early diagnosis of CRC as compared to conventional colonoscopy.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Electronic databases such as PubMed/Medline, SCOPUS, and Web of Science were reviewed for original studies (randomized controlled trials, observational studies), SRs, and meta-analysis between 2017 and 2022 utilizing Medical Subject Headings terminology in a broad search strategy. All searches were performed and analyzed according to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analysis methodology and were conducted from November 2022. A data extraction form based on the Cochrane Consumers and Communication Review group's extraction template for quality assessment and evidence synthesis was used for data extraction. All included studies considered for bias and ethical criteria and provided valuable evidence to answer the research question.

RESULTS

The database search identified 218 studies, including 87 from PubMed, 60 from SCOPUS, and 71 from Web of Science databases. The retrieved studies from the databases were imported to Rayyan software and a duplicate article check was performed, all duplicate articles were removed after careful evaluation of the data. The abstract and full-text screening was performed in accordance with the following eligibility criteria: Strengthening the Reporting of Observational Studies in Epidemiology (STROBE) for observational studies; Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analysis for review articles, ENTREQ for narrative studies; and modified JADAD for randomized controlled trials. This yielded 15 studies that met the requirements for this SR and were finally included in the review.

CONCLUSION

AIC is a safe, highly effective screening tool that can increase the detection rate of adenomas, and polyps resulting in an early diagnosis of CRC in adults when compared to conventional colonoscopy. The results of this SR prompt further large-scale research to investigate the effectiveness in accordance with sex, race, and socioeconomic status, as well as its influence on prognosis and survival rate.

Effectiveness of Colorectal Cancer (CRC) Screening on All-Cause and CRC-Specific Mortality Reduction: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

(1) Background: The aim of this study was to pool and compare all-cause and colorectal cancer (CRC) specific mortality reduction of CRC screening in randomized control trials (RCTs) and simulation models, and to determine factors that influence screening effectiveness. (2) Methods: PubMed, Embase, Web of Science and Cochrane library were searched for eligible studies. Multi-use simulation models or RCTs that compared the mortality of CRC screening with no screening in general population were included. CRC-specific and all-cause mortality rate ratios and 95% confidence intervals were calculated by a bivariate random model. (3) Results: 10 RCTs and 47 model studies were retrieved. The pooled CRC-specific mortality rate ratios in RCTs were 0.88 (0.80, 0.96) and 0.76 (0.68, 0.84) for guaiac-based fecal occult blood tests (gFOBT) and single flexible sigmoidoscopy (FS) screening, respectively. For the model studies, the rate ratios were 0.45 (0.39, 0.51) for biennial fecal immunochemical tests (FIT), 0.31 (0.28, 0.34) for biennial gFOBT, 0.61 (0.53, 0.72) for single FS, 0.27 (0.21, 0.35) for 10-yearly colonoscopy, and 0.35 (0.29, 0.42) for 5-yearly FS. The CRC-specific mortality reduction of gFOBT increased with higher adherence in both studies (RCT: 0.78 (0.68, 0.89) vs. 0.92 (0.87, 0.98), model: 0.30 (0.28, 0.33) vs. 0.92 (0.51, 1.63)). Model studies showed a 0.62-1.1% all-cause mortality reduction with single FS screening. (4) Conclusions: Based on RCTs and model studies, biennial FIT/gFOBT, single and 5-yearly FS, and 10-yearly colonoscopy screening significantly reduces CRC-specific mortality. The model estimates are much higher than in RCTs, because the simulated biennial gFOBT assumes higher adherence. The effectiveness of screening increases at younger screening initiation ages and higher adherences.

Patterns of Somatic Variants in Colorectal Adenoma and Carcinoma Tissue and Matched Plasma Samples from the Hungarian Oncogenome Program

Analysis of circulating cell-free DNA (cfDNA) of colorectal adenoma (AD) and cancer (CRC) patients provides a minimally invasive approach that is able to explore genetic alterations. It is unknown whether there are specific genetic variants that could explain the high prevalence of CRC in Hungary. Whole-exome sequencing (WES) was performed on colon tissues (27 AD, 51 CRC) and matched cfDNAs (17 AD, 33 CRC); furthermore, targeted panel sequencing was performed on a subset of cfDNA samples. The most frequently mutated genes were APC, KRAS, and FBN3 in AD, while APC, TP53, TTN, and KRAS were the most frequently mutated in CRC tissue. Variants in KRAS codons 12 (AD: 8/27, CRC: 11/51 (0.216)) and 13 (CRC: 3/51 (0.06)) were the most frequent in our sample set, with G12V (5/27) dominance in ADs and G12D (5/51 (0.098)) in CRCs. In terms of the cfDNA WES results, tumor somatic variants were found in 6/33 of CRC cases. Panel sequencing revealed somatic variants in 8 out of the 12 enrolled patients, identifying 12/20 tumor somatic variants falling on its targeted regions, while WES recovered only 20% in the respective regions in cfDNA of the same patients. In liquid biopsy analyses, WES is less efficient compared to the targeted panel sequencing with a higher coverage depth that can hold a relevant clinical potential to be applied in everyday practice in the future.

Costs and outcomes of colorectal cancer screening program in Isfahan, Iran

BACKGROUND

Colorectal cancer is one of the most prevalent gastrointestinal cancers in Iran i.e., the fourth and the second prevalent cancer among Iranian males and females, respectively. A routine screening program is effective in the early detection of disease which can reduce the cancer burden both for individuals and society. In 2015, Iran's Package of Essential Non- communicable Diseases program had been piloted in Shahreza city in Isfahan province. Colorectal cancer screening for the population aged 50-70 was a part of this program. So far, there was no study about the cost and outcomes of that program. Thus, this study aimed to analyze the costs and outcomes of colorectal cancer screening done from 2016 to 2019 in Shahreza.

METHODS

This cost-outcome description study used the data of 19,392 individuals who were 50-70 years old experienced a fecal immunochemical test (FIT) and had an electronic health record. All direct costs including personnel, building space, equipment, training, etc. were extracted from the financial documents existing in the Isfahan province Health Center. The outcome was defined as positive FIT, detection of adenoma or malignancy as recorded in the E-integrated health system.

RESULTS

The results of this study indicated that the direct costs of the colorectal cancer screening program during the years 2016-2019 were 7,368,707,574 Rials (321,029 PPP$) in Shahreza, Isfahan province. These costs resulted in identifying 821 people with a positive FIT test, of those 367 individuals were undergone colonoscopy. Of whom 8 cases of colorectal cancer, and 151 cases with polyps were diagnosed.

CONCLUSION

This study showed that by paying a small amount of 320 thousand international dollars we could prevent 151 cases of polyps to be progressed to colorectal cancer,resulting in a significant reduction in colorectal cancer incidence.

Cost-effectiveness of colorectal cancer screening in Slovakia

BACKGROUND

Colorectal cancer (CRC) is an ideal disease for screening due to known and detectable precursor lesions and slow progression from benign adenoma to invasive cancer. The introduction of organized population-based screening programs reduces the burden of colorectal cancer and increases the quality of the screening process with a more favorable harm to benefit ratio compared to opportunistic screening.

METHODS

The study used the microsimulation screening analysis-colon simulation model for the estimation of the effect of various factors on cancer incidence and mortality. The model simulated the Slovakian population from 2018 to 2050. Study includes the analysis of two screening strategies the fecal immunochemical test (FIT) every 2 years and annual FIT. Cost-effectiveness parameters were evaluated comparing each simulated screening scenario with no screening.

RESULTS

Compared to no screening, the biennial FIT would detect 29 600 CRC cases and annual FIT 37 800 CRC cases. Mortality due to CRC showed benefits for both strategies with 17,38% reduction in biennial FIT and 24,67% reduction in annual FIT approach. Both screening programs were more costly as well as more effective compared to no screening. The ICER for biennial FIT strategy was 1776 EUR per 1 QALY and for the annual FIT 3991 EUR per 1 QALY.

CONCLUSIONS

In summary, this is the first cost-effectiveness analysis focusing on multiple national CRC screening strategies in Slovakia. Both strategies demonstrated cost-effectiveness compared to no screening. However, for optimal population-based programmatic screening strategy, the policymakers should also consider human resources availability, acceptability of screening test among the population or additional resources including the screening funding.

Heterogeneous impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on lung, colorectal and breast cancer incidence in Hungary: results from time series and panel data models

OBJECTIVE

During the COVID-19 pandemic, health system resources were reallocated to provide care for patients with COVID-19, limiting access for others. Patients themselves also constrained their visits to healthcare providers. In this study, we analysed the heterogeneous effects of the pandemic on the new diagnoses of lung, colorectal and breast cancer in Hungary.

DESIGN

Time series and panel models of quarterly administrative data, disaggregated by gender, age group and district of residence.

PARTICIPANTS

Data for the whole population of Hungary between the first quarter of 2017 and the second quarter of 2021.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Number of patients newly diagnosed with lung, colorectal and breast cancer, defined as those who were hospitalised with the appropriate primary International Classification of Diseases Tenth Revision diagnosis code but had not had hospital encounters with such a code within the previous 5 years.

RESULTS

The incidence of lung, colorectal and breast cancer decreased by 14.4% (95% CI 10.8% to 17.8%), 19.9% (95% CI 12.2% to 26.9%) and 15.5% (95% CI 2.5% to 27.0%), respectively, during the examined period of the pandemic, with different time patterns across cancer types. The incidence decreased more among people at least 65 years old than among the younger (p<0.05 for lung cancer and p<0.1 for colorectal cancer). At the district level, both the previously negative income gap in lung cancer incidence and the previously positive income gap in breast cancer incidence significantly narrowed during the pandemic (p<0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

The decline in new cancer diagnoses, caused by a combination of supply-side and demand-side factors, suggests that some cancer cases have remained hidden. It calls for action by policy makers to engage individuals with high risk of cancer more in accessing healthcare services, to diagnose the disease early and to prepare for effective management of patient pathways from diagnosis to survival or end-of-life care.

The EU-TOPIA evaluation tool: An online modelling-based tool for informing breast, cervical, and colorectal cancer screening decisions in Europe

Background

Aiming to support European countries in improving their breast, cervical, and colorectal cancer (CRC) screening programmes, the EU-TOPIA consortium has developed an online user-friendly tool (the EU-TOPIA evaluation tool; https://miscan.eu-topia.org) based on the Microsimulation Screening Analysis (MISCAN) model.

Methods

We designed an online platform that allows stakeholders to use their country-specific data (demographic, epidemiological, and cancer screening information) to quantify future harms and benefits of different cancer screening scenarios in their country. Current cancer screening programmes and impacts of potential changes in screening protocols (such as extending target ages or increasing screening attendance) can be simulated. Results are scaled to the country-specific population. To illustrate the tool, we used the tool to simulate two different CRC screening scenarios in the Netherlands: biennial fecal immunochemical testing (FIT) in ages 55–75 and colonoscopy every ten years in ages 55–75. Data from the Dutch screening programme was used to inform both scenarios.

Results

A total of 482,700 CRC cases and 178,000 CRC deaths were estimated in the Netherlands with FIT screening (for individuals aged 40–100 years, 2018–2050), with 47.3 million FITs performed (1.92 million positives of which 1.64 million adhered to diagnostic colonoscopy). With colonoscopy screening, CRC incidence and mortality were, respectively, up to 17% and 14% lower than in the current FIT screening programme, requiring, however, a colonoscopy demand that was 7-fold higher.

Conclusions

Our study presents an essential online tool for stakeholders and medical societies to quantify estimates of benefits and harms of early cancer detection in Europe.