Geographic-Level Association of Contemporary Changes in Localized and Metastatic Prostate Cancer Incidence in the Era of Decreasing PSA Screening

COVID-19 Deaths and the Impact of Health Disparities, Hospital Characteristics, Community, Social Distancing, and Health System Competition

The United States has one of the highest cumulative mortalities of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and has reached 1 million deaths as of May 19th, 2022. Understanding which community and hospital factors contributed to disparities in COVID-19 mortality is important to inform public health strategies. This study aimed to explore the potential relationship between hospital service area (1) community (ie, health professional shortage areas, market competition, and uninsured percentage) and (2) hospital (ie, teaching, system, and ownership status) characteristics (2013-2018) on publicly available COVD-19 (February to October 2020) mortality data. The study included 2514 health service areas and used multilevel mixed-effects linear model to account for the multilevel data structure. The outcome measure was the number of COVID-19 deaths. This study found that public health, as opposed to acute care provision, was associated with community health and, ultimately, COVID-19 mortality. The study found that population characteristics including more uninsured greater proportion of those over 65 years, more diverse populations, and larger populations were all associated with a higher rate of death. In addition, communities with fewer hospitals were associated with a lower rate of death. When considering region in the United States, the west region showed a higher rate of death than all other regions. The association between some community characteristics and higher COVID-19 deaths demonstrated that access to health care, either for COVID-19 infection or worse health from higher disease burden, is strongly associated with COVID-19 deaths. Thus, to be better prepared for potential future pandemics, a greater emphasis on public health infrastructure is needed.

Forecasting of overall and aggressive prostate cancer incident counts at the small area level

OBJECTIVES

This study aims to forecast overall and aggressive prostate cancer counts at the local government area (LGA) level over 10 years (2019-2028) in Victoria, Australia, using Victorian Cancer Registry (2001-2018) data.

METHODS

We used the Age-Period-Cohort approach to estimate the annual age-specific incidence and used Bayesian spatiotemporal models that account for non-linear temporal trends and area-level risk factors. We evaluated the models' performance by withholding and comparing forecasts with the 2014-2018 data.

RESULTS

There were 80,449 prostate cancer cases between 2001 and 2018, with an overall increasing trend. Compared to 2001, prostate cancer incidence increased by 69%, from 3049 to 5167 cases in 2018. Prostate cancer counts are expected to reach 7631 cases in 2028, a further 48% increase. Unexplained area-level spatial variation was substantially reduced after adjusting for the area-level elderly population. Aggressive prostate cancer cases increased by 107% between 2001 and 2018 and are expected to rise by 123% increase in 2028. The proportion of aggressive prostate cancer cases will increase to 31% in 2028 from 20% in 2018. By 2028, overall and aggressive prostate cancer cases are projected to be increasing in 66% and 61% of LGAs.

CONCLUSION

Prostate cancer cases are projected to rise at the state level and most LGAs in the next 10 years, with much steeper increases in aggressive cases. Population growth and an ageing population have primarily contributed to this rise besides prostate-specific antigen testing. These prediction estimates help inform prostate cancer burden and facilitate efficient healthcare delivery.

Prostate cancer management: long-term beliefs, epidemic developments in the early twenty-first century and 3PM dimensional solutions

In the early twenty-first century, societies around the world are facing the paradoxal epidemic development of PCa as a non-communicable disease. PCa is the most frequently diagnosed cancer for men in several countries such as the USA. Permanently improving diagnostics and treatments in the PCa management causes an impressive divergence between, on one hand, permanently increasing numbers of diagnosed PCa cases and, on the other hand, stable or even slightly decreasing mortality rates. Still, aspects listed below are waiting for innovate solutions in the context of predictive approaches, targeted prevention and personalisation of medical care (PPPM / 3PM).A.PCa belongs to the cancer types with the highest incidence worldwide. Corresponding economic burden is enormous. Moreover, the costs of treating PCa are currently increasing more quickly than those of any other cancer. Implementing individualised patient profiles and adapted treatment algorithms would make currently too heterogeneous landscape of PCa treatment costs more transparent providing clear "road map" for the cost saving.B.PCa is a systemic multi-factorial disease. Consequently, predictive diagnostics by liquid biopsy analysis is instrumental for the disease prediction, targeted prevention and curative treatments at early stages.C.The incidence of metastasising PCa is rapidly increasing particularly in younger populations. Exemplified by trends observed in the USA, prognosis is that the annual burden will increase by over 40% in 2025. To this end, one of the evident deficits is the reactive character of medical services currently provided to populations. Innovative screening programmes might be useful to identify persons in suboptimal health conditions before the clinical onset of metastasising PCa. Strong predisposition to systemic hypoxic conditions and ischemic lesions (e.g. characteristic for individuals with Flammer syndrome phenotype) and low-grade inflammation might be indicative for specific phenotyping and genotyping in metastasising PCa screening and disease management. Predictive liquid biopsy tests for CTC enumeration and their molecular characterisation are considered to be useful for secondary prevention of metastatic disease in PCa patients.D.Particular rapidly increasing PCa incidence rates are characteristic for adolescents and young adults aged 15-40 years. Patients with early onset prostate cancer pose unique challenges; multi-factorial risks for these trends are proposed. Consequently, multi-level diagnostics including phenotyping and multi-omics are considered to be the most appropriate tool for the risk assessment, prediction and prognosis. Accumulating evidence suggests that early onset prostate cancer is a distinct phenotype from both aetiological and clinical perspectives deserving particular attention from view point of 3P medical approaches.