Prediction of recidivism in exhibitionists: psychological, phallometric, and offense factors

Recidivism rates of sex offenders managed under the Dangerous Prisoners (Sexual Offenders) Act 2003: an evaluation of actuarial justice

According to the Dangerous Prisoners Sexual Offenders Act 2003 (DPSOA), an offender is considered 'dangerous' if there is an 'unacceptable risk' that he will commit 'serious sexual harm'. Current legislation operates within an actuarial justice framework, whereby increasing resources are spent on those considered at greater risk. There is limited research on the efficacy of this approach. The current study examines sexual recidivism rates of a sample of DPSOA offenders. Court files of 104 community-supervised dangerous sex offenders (M age = 50.7 SD = 10.8) were examined to determine date and type of re-offending. Recidivism was operationalised as time until arrest (for a sexual conviction/contravention). The overall level of sexual recidivism was low (7.69%). Kaplan-Meier analyses of survival curves identified no difference in rates between risk categories. While this likely suggests that they are not dangerous or an unacceptable risk, the strict conditions of supervision may be effective in preventing sexual re-offending. Further, limitations in empirically understanding the construct need to be considered.

The Predictive Properties of Psychiatric Diagnoses, Dynamic Risk and Dynamic Risk Change Assessed by the VRS-SO in Forensically Admitted and Released Sexual Offenders

Psychiatric diagnoses, static risk factors, and criminogenic needs at time of admission and release were examined in a mentally ill sample of psychiatrically detained sexual offenders. Although clinically found to be at low or even very low risk at discharge, 12% reoffended sexually over an average follow-up of 7 years. Psychotic disorders were present in only 5% of offenders, whereas 93% had a personality disorder diagnosis and 76% a paraphilic disorder diagnosis. Only exhibitionism and alcohol misuse were associated with relapse. Static risk factors captured by the Static-99 also did not significantly predict recidivism; however, the VRS-SO-a structured risk assessment tool that assesses criminogenic needs and changes in risk from treatment or other change agents, rated retrospectively on the present sample-predicted sexual recidivism as well as any new imprisonment or psychiatric placement. In particular, the sexual deviance factor of the VRS-SO had large in magnitude predictive associations with sexual reoffending, while treatment related changes assessed on this factor were significantly related to non-reoffending. Findings corroborate the advantages of structured risk assessment and structured change monitoring, particularly for complex clientele such as mentally ill sexual offenders.

Genital Responses to Rape Vignettes Among Young Men: The Influence of Mood and Directed Attention

Although it is clear that men with a history of sexual assaults against women produce higher relative genital responses to rape vignettes in the laboratory than do men without such a history, it remains unclear what aspects of the vignettes are eliciting these responses, and whether the genital responses are affected by situational factors. The antisocial tendencies hypothesis states that many men are inhibited by cues of violence, suffering, and coercion in rape vignettes, but other men, particularly antisocial and sexually aggressive men, are not so inhibited. In this study, we investigated whether the hypothesized inhibition to rape vignettes among nonoffenders could be affected by manipulation of mood and directed attention. A total of 48 young men were exposed to audio-recorded vignettes describing mutually consenting and nonviolent sexual interactions, mutually consenting and violent sexual interactions, nonconsenting and violent sexual interactions, and nonsexual and nonviolent social interactions (within-subjects). Participants were randomly assigned to a mood manipulation designed to induce a happy, neutral, or sad mood (between-subjects). All were asked to pay attention to either sex words or violent words while listening to the vignettes (within-subjects). As is typically observed, genital responses were lower (inhibited) when vignettes included cues of violence or nonconsent. Both happy and sad mood inductions reduced this inhibition, so that men induced into a happy or sad mood showed greater relative responding to cues of violence or nonconsent compared with men in a neutral mood. The attention manipulation had no significant effect. Results suggest that genital responses to rape cues can be situationally influenced, but not necessarily as predicted by the antisocial tendencies hypothesis.

An Examination of Escalation in Burglaries Committed by Sexual Offenders

Research in the field of sexual aggression often assumes escalation in the criminal careers of sexual offenders. Sexual offenders are thought to begin their criminal careers with non-contact sexual offenses or non-sexual offenses and then escalate to more serious crimes, specifically sexual violence. The commission of one crime in particular--burglary--has been found to be a predictor of future violence in sexual offenders. The present study investigated the nature and extent of escalation in the criminal histories of 161 sex offenders who committed at least two burglaries. Six types of escalations were considered: type of burglary, occupancy, violence, weapon, frequency, and the victim-offender relationship. Escalators and non-escalators were compared, differences between the groups were reviewed, and the cumulative effect of various forms of escalation was analyzed. Results indicated that escalators and non-escalators could be differentiated on a number of important dimensions that might assist in the earlier detection of subsequently more dangerous offenders.

Differentiating offenders by index offense and personality inventories: the characteristics of adult probationers in Israel

The current study examines the differences between four groups of offenders (N = 230) according to the type of crime they committed: domestic violence, sex offenses, traffic violations, and nonspecific violence offenses. The study was conducted on the offenders undergoing treatment in the Israeli Adult Probation Service. A comparison between the groups included an examination of the differences in aggression levels, anxiety levels, and two Minnesota Multiphasic Personality Inventory-2 (MMPI-2) scales-the Psychopathic Deviate (PD-4) and the Antisocial Practices (ASP) scales. The findings provide a glimpse of the features that characterize each group, in relation to each other and in relation to the body of literature. The domestic violence group differed from the other groups in most of the research variables. They were found to have low anxiety levels and high aggression levels. Together with other findings that pointed to antisocial practices and attitudes, this group constitutes a population that is violent and aggressive to a far greater extent compared with the other groups. Sex offenders were found to be a unique group that does not fit in the "classic offenders" category. They were found to have low aggression levels and high anxiety levels and their scores on PD-4 and ASP scales were low compared with the other groups. The traffic group was characterized with typically low levels of anxiety and high levels of physical aggression. This group also obtained high scores on ASP scale and the measure that examined confrontation with authority figures. Finally, study findings did not indicate characteristics that typify the nonspecific violence offenses.

A time series modeling approach in risk appraisal of violent and sexual recidivism

For over half a century, various clinical and actuarial methods have been employed to assess the likelihood of violent recidivism. Yet there is a need for new methods that can improve the accuracy of recidivism predictions. This study proposes a new time series modeling approach that generates high levels of predictive accuracy over short and long periods of time. The proposed approach outperformed two widely used actuarial instruments (i.e., the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide and the Sex Offender Risk Appraisal Guide). Furthermore, analysis of temporal risk variations based on specific time series models can add valuable information into risk assessment and management of violent offenders.

Coercive paraphilic disorder

Sexual coercion is a manifestation of sexual conflict that is not in itself pathological according to Wakefield's (1992) criteria because sexual coercion can increase a man's Darwinian fitness. There are, however, differences among men in their propensity to commit rape and this propensity is linked to antisocial personality characteristics and relatively more sexual interest in brutal rape depictions. If highly rape-prone men were to be considered pathological, it would be possible to develop diagnostic criteria to identify them.

Personality disorders in a sample of paraphilic and nonparaphilic child molesters: a comparative study

This article renders the results of research that investigated personality disorders in a sample of paraphilic and nonparaphilic child molesters. The sample contained 36 paraphilic child molesters and a matched comparison group of 34 nonparaphilic child molesters. The analyses of the research results show that four personality disorders discriminate between both groups. Only the obsessive-compulsive personality disorder contributes significantly to the explanation of paraphilic child molestation. This result also contributes to the development and differentiation of the treatment of paraphilia-related disorders. For several child molesters, psychological approaches to the treatment of sexual offending (e.g., cognitive-behavioral treatment, psychotherapy in general) are limited and cannot be expected to immediately reduce risk. Interest has been expressed in medical approaches to reduce recidivism, in combination with psychotherapy.

A large-scale meta-analysis relating the hare measures of psychopathy to antisocial conduct

The present meta-analysis integrated effect sizes from 95 non-overlapping studies (N=15,826) to summarize the relation between Hare Psychopathy Checklists and antisocial conduct. Whereas prior meta-analyses focused on specific subdomains of the literature, we used broad inclusion criteria, incorporating a diversity of samples, settings, methodologies, and outcomes in our analysis. Our broad perspective allowed us to identify general trends consistent across the entire literature and improved the power of our analyses. Results indicated that higher PCL Total, Factor 1 (F(1)), and Factor 2 (F(2)) scores were moderately associated with increased antisocial conduct. Study effect sizes were significantly moderated by the country in which the study was conducted, racial composition, gender composition, institutional setting, the type of information used to score psychopathy, and the independence of psychopathy and transgression assessments. However, multiple regression analyses indicated that the information used to assess psychopathy did not have a unique influence on effect sizes after accounting for the influence of other moderator variables. Furthermore, racial composition of the sample was related to the country in which the study was conducted, making it unclear whether one or both of these moderators influenced effect sizes. We provide potential explanations for the significant findings and discuss implications of the results for future research.

[Evaluation of risk assessment instruments for sex offenders]

In order to evaluate risk assessment instruments for sex offenders in Germany, we compared the predictive validity of the Static-99, HCR-20, SVR-20, and PCL-R scales for 134 sex offenders. The mean follow-up time was 9 years (range 1-340 months), using the first entry into the National Register of Criminal Convictions as endpoint variable. For the estimate of predictive power, the area under the curve (AUC) of receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis was calculated. The AUC plots accurately identified violent or sexual recidivists and "false positives" at all scale levels. Comparing the predictive validity of these four instruments, the results favored Static-99. As for the limited sample size, differences between the assessment instruments were, however, not statistically significant. The ROC analysis for Static-99 showed that including treatment dropouts does not improve predictive accuracy (including dropouts: AUC 0.710; excluding dropouts: AUC 0.721). Kaplan-Meier survival analyses yielded highly a significant correlation to recidivism time point for two Static-99 and SVR-20 risk categories. Higher-risk categories were related to earlier recidivism. However, relying on the Static-99 and SVR-20 alone showed false positive results: for up to two out of three sex offenders, they predicted recidivism which did not occur.

Biological fathers and stepfathers who molest their daughters: psychological, phallometric, and criminal features

A sample (N=143) of men who sexually abused their biological daughters or their step/adopted daughters were examined on a comprehensive array of demographic and historical information, offense characteristics, psychological and phallometric measures, and recidivism. Biological fathers were significantly less sexually aroused by children than were the stepfathers. On all the remaining variables, however, no statistically significant differences were found. Overall, biological and stepfathers in the present study appear to be much more similar than different from one another.