Long-term predictive validity of the risk matrix 2000: a comparison with the static-99 and the sex offender risk appraisal guide

Consistency and Construct Validity of the Five-Level System for Risk Communication Using Static and Dynamic Tools: An Investigation Using the Static-99R and VRS-SO

This study examined the Council of State Governments' five-level system for risk communication, as applied to the Static-99R and Violence Risk Scale-Sexual Offense Version (VRS-SO). Aims of the system include increasing consistency in risk communication and linking risk categories to psychologically meaningful constructs. We investigated concordance between risk levels assigned by the instruments, and distributions of VRS-SO dynamic needs associated with Static-99R risk levels, among a multisite sample (n = 1,404) of persons who have sexually offended. Concordant categorical risk ratings were assigned in just over a third of cases, suggesting that consistency remains a concern with the system, particularly when conceptually disparate tools are applied. Densities of criminogenic needs varied widely among persons assigned the same risk level by the Static-99R and diverged from the descriptions ascribed by the system. These findings can inform clinical assessments and further refinement of the system.

The predictive performance of criminal risk assessment tools used at sentencing: Systematic review of validation studies

Although risk assessment tools have been widely used to inform sentencing decisions, there is uncertainty about the extent and quality of evidence of their predictive performance when validated in new samples. Following PRISMA guidelines, we conducted a systematic review of validation studies of 11 commonly used risk assessment tools for sentencing. We identified 36 studies with 597,665 participants, among which were 27 independent validation studies with 177,711 individuals. Overall, the predictive performance of the included risk assessment tools was mixed, and ranged from poor to moderate. Tool performance was typically overestimated in studies with smaller sample sizes or studies in which tool developers were co-authors. Most studies only reported area under the curve (AUC), which ranged from 0.57 to 0.75 in independent studies with more than 500 participants. The majority did not report key performance measures, such as calibration and rates of false positives and negatives. In addition, most validation studies had a high risk of bias, partly due to inappropriate analytical approach used. We conclude that the research priority is for future investigations to address the key methodological shortcomings identified in this review, and policy makers should enable this research. More sufficiently powered independent validation studies are necessary.

The Council of State Governments Justice Center Approach to Increasing Risk-Level Consistency in the Application of Risk Assessment Instruments

Correctional and forensic mental health settings potentially have multiple risk assessment instruments administered on a single client. Because of the various methods of determining risk categories, risk-level consistency can become an issue. The Council of State Governments Justice Center developed a Five-Level System that can be applied to most risk assessment instruments. Using the Level of Service Inventory-Revised and two created risk assessment instruments, the present study assessed if the Five-Level System (vs. normative percentile categories) demonstrated greater agreement between the two instruments, and, if so, the percentage of greater agreement. The Five-Level System demonstrated 4% to 5% greater agreement for both risk-level placement and recidivism rates. The implications of this greater consistency among risk assessment instruments is an increased fairness in making risk-level assignments.

Relationships between denial, risk, and recidivism in sexual offenders

The aim of this study was to examine the relationship between denial, static risk, and sexual recidivism for offenders with different types of current sexual offense. Denial was defined as failure to accept responsibility for the current offense and was assessed using the Offender Assessment System. Static risk level (measured using a revised version of the Risk Matrix 2000) was examined as a moderator in the relationship between denial and sexual and violent recidivism. In the full sample (N = 6,891), lower levels of sexual recidivism were found for those who denied responsibility for their offense, independent of static risk in a Cox regression analysis. Higher levels of violent recidivism among those denying responsibility were not significant after controlling for static risk using Cox regression. For specific offender types, denial of responsibility was not significantly associated with sexual or violent recidivism. In conclusion, the presumption that denial represents increased risk, which is common in much of the decision making surrounding sex offenders, should be reconsidered. Instead, important decisions regarding sentencing, treatment, and release decisions should be based on empirically supported factors.

An examination of the interrater reliability between practitioners and researchers on the static-99

Many studies have validated the psychometric properties of the Static-99, the most widely used measure of sexual offender recidivism risk. However much of this research relied on instrument coding completed by well-trained researchers. This study is the first to examine the interrater reliability (IRR) of the Static-99 between practitioners in the field and researchers. Using archival data from a sample of 1,973 formerly incarcerated sex offenders, field raters' scores on the Static-99 were compared with those of researchers. Overall, clinicians and researchers had excellent IRR on Static-99 total scores, with IRR coefficients ranging from "substantial" to "outstanding" for the individual 10 items of the scale. The most common causes of discrepancies were coding manual errors, followed by item subjectivity, inaccurate item scoring, and calculation errors. These results offer important data with regard to the frequency and perceived nature of scoring errors.

Circles South East: the first 10 years 2002-2012

This article describes the first 10 years of the implementation of Circles of Support and Accountability (Circles) in the management of sexual offenders in South-East England by Circles South East (CSE). The Circles of 71 core members are reviewed in detail, with reference to demographic data, offense and sentencing histories, risk assessment data, and considerations regarding Multi-Agency Public Protection Arrangements. A group of 71 comparison subjects who were referred to CSE and deemed suitable for but did not receive the service was identified. Follow-up behaviors of both groups are examined (including all forms of reconviction, breach of orders, and prison recall). Over a comparable follow-up period of 55 months, the incidence of violent and contact sexual reconviction in the comparison group was significantly higher than for the Circles cohort. Comparisons are made between expected and actual levels of sexual reconviction, with the Circles cohort showing lower than expected rate of sexual reconviction but not to a statistically significant degree.

Sexual sadism in sexual offenders and sexually motivated homicide

This article gives a clinically oriented overview of forensically relevant forms of sexual sadism disorder and its specific relationship to sexual homicide. In sexual homicide perpetrators, peculiar patterns of sexual sadism may be a motivational pathway to kill. Sexual sadism increases the risk for reoffending in sexual offenders. Through psychotherapy and pharmacological interventions, treatment of sadistic sex offenders has to consider special characteristics that may be different from those of nonsadistic sex offenders. Many of these offenders share a combination of sexual sadistic motives and an intact self-regulation, sometimes combined with a high level of sexual preoccupation.

Rates of violence in patients classified as high risk by structured risk assessment instruments

BACKGROUND

Rates of violence in persons identified as high risk by structured risk assessment instruments (SRAIs) are uncertain and frequently unreported by validation studies.

AIMS

To analyse the variation in rates of violence in individuals identified as high risk by SRAIs.

METHOD

A systematic search of databases (1995-2011) was conducted for studies on nine widely used assessment tools. Where violence rates in high-risk groups were not published, these were requested from study authors. Rate information was extracted, and binomial logistic regression was used to study heterogeneity.

RESULTS

Information was collected on 13 045 participants in 57 samples from 47 independent studies. Annualised rates of violence in individuals classified as high risk varied both across and within instruments. Rates were elevated when population rates of violence were higher, when a structured professional judgement instrument was used and when there was a lower proportion of men in a study.

CONCLUSIONS

After controlling for time at risk, the rate of violence in individuals classified as high risk by SRAIs shows substantial variation. In the absence of information on local base rates, assigning predetermined probabilities to future violence risk on the basis of a structured risk assessment is not supported by the current evidence base. This underscores the need for caution when such risk estimates are used to influence decisions related to individual liberty and public safety.

The influence of risk and psychopathy on the therapeutic climate in sex offender treatment

The current study examines the relationship between therapeutic climate of sexual offender treatment groups, risk level, psychopathy and phase (i.e., early/later) of treatment. The participants were 137 sexual offenders detained indefinitely under Wisconsin's Sexually Violent Person's Law who attended a treatment group based on their level of psychopathy: higher levels of psychopathy (i.e., PCL-R scores of 25 or above) or lower levels of psychopathy (i.e., PCL-R scores of less than 25). Using MANOVA with aspects of the therapeutic climate as the dependent variables, the therapeutic climate did not differ as a function of the risk level of the participants. However, the overall therapeutic climate of the two treatment tracks (Lower vs. Higher PCL-R) differed significantly. The mean therapeutic climate scores for both treatment tracks were in the medium to high range (with exception of group cohesion, which was low in the Higher PCL-R track), indicating a fairly positive therapeutic climate in both treatment tracks overall. The therapeutic climate also differed as a function of phase of treatment for each of the treatment tracks, with some aspects being rated more positively early in treatment and others in more positively in later phases. In particular, group cohesion was viewed more positively for the Higher PCL-R group in later phases of treatment.

A large-scale evaluation of Risk Matrix 2000 in Scotland

Risk Matrix 2000 is a statistically derived risk-assessment instrument for use with convicted male sex offenders. It is a core element of the sex offender risk assessments carried out in England, Wales, and Scotland. This study examines its validity in a large cohort of sex offenders released from Scottish prisons. It compares 5-year outcomes with findings from the original Risk Matrix validity sample (a 1979 cohort of sex offenders in England and Wales). The instrument had moderate predictive validity and performed in a similar manner in the two studies in spite of different underlying base rates of reconviction.

An examination of the predictive validity of the risk matrix 2000 in England and wales

This study examined the predictive validity of an actuarial risk-assessment tool with convicted sexual offenders in England and Wales. A modified version of the RM2000/s scale and the RM2000 v and c scales (Thornton et al., 2003) were examined for accuracy in predicting proven sexual violent, nonsexual violent, and combined sexual and/or nonsexual violent reoffending in a sample of sexual offenders who had either started a community sentence or been released from prison into the community by March 2007. Rates of proven reoffending were examined at 2 years for the majority of the sample (n = 4,946), and 4 years ( n = 578) for those for whom these data were available. The predictive validity of the RM2000 scales was also explored for different subgroups of sexual offenders to assess the robustness of the tool. Both the modified RM2000/s and the complete v and c scales effectively classified offenders into distinct risk categories that differed significantly in rates of proven sexual and/or nonsexual violent reoffending. Survival analyses on the RM2000/s and v scales (N = 9,284) indicated that the higher risk groups offended more quickly and at a higher rate than lower risk groups. The relative predictive validity of the RM2000/s, v, and c, as calculated using Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC) analyses, were moderate (.68) for RM2000/s and large for both the RM2000/c (.73) and RM2000/v (.80), at the 2-year follow-up. RM2000/s was moderately accurate in predicting relative risk of proven sexual reoffending for a variety of subgroups of sexual offenders.

The importance of individual differences in pornography use: theoretical perspectives and implications for treating sexual offenders

This article reviews the extant literature regarding pornography's influence on antisocial attitudes, sexual arousal, and sexually aggressive behavior in both noncriminal and criminal samples. The article concludes that when examined in the context of multiple, interacting factors, the findings are highly consistent across experimental and nonexperimental studies and across differing populations in showing that pornography use can be a risk factor for sexually aggressive outcomes, principally for men who are high on other risk factors and who use pornography frequently. Finally, this article presents theoretical implications based on these findings, as well as some clinical implications relevant to the assessment and treatment of sexual offenders.