Modeling social dimensions of oral health among older adults in urban environments

Knowledge-seeking and knowledge sharing of health services across social networks and communities: a scoping review

INTRODUCTION

Lay people's knowledge influences healthcare service utilisation, but the literature on people's knowledge-seeking and sharing about different healthcare services across social networks is patchy and not well integrated. This scoping review was undertaken to map how different studies report healthcare service -related (healthcare) knowledge-seeking or sharing in social circles and to identify evidence gaps for further research.

METHOD

Levac's enhanced scoping review framework was adapted to develop a comprehensive electronic search strategy. Four electronic databases-Medline, Web of Science, PsychINFO, and CINAHL were searched as well as Grey literature. Five per cent of all titles and abstracts screened were screened by a blinded second reviewer. After full-text screening, data were extracted and summarised.

RESULTS

The review included 14 quantitative, 23 qualitative, 2 mixed-method studies, one literature review and one report [N = 41]. Theories included within studies ranged from the socio-ecological model to bricolage. The concept of healthcare-related knowledge was generally ill defined and usually positioned within the concept of health literacy more generally. Lay people's healthcare knowledge was not generally considered as a distinct entity in a holistic sense, with only two studies identified which investigated healthcare knowledge exclusively at inter-personal (meso) levels. However, included studies showed that people's healthcare knowledge in everyday life is co-constructed when they engage in inter-personal interactions with informal social network ties. People tend to acquire healthcare knowledge from others who share similar lived experiences of using healthcare services, which binds the knowledge seekers through homophily. Due to the social responsibility to help others being ingrained within the community, people (predominantly women), support each other, providing emotional and instrumental support in addition to essential healthcare information. This then builds holistic healthcare literacy, which people conventionally do not gain solely from the knowledge transmitted by healthcare professionals.

CONCLUSION

People in diverse community settings acquired, co-constructed, transmitted, or suppressed knowledge about various healthcare services with the support of informal networks, mostly family and friends, combined with mass media sources. Therefore, people's healthcare knowledge is not an individual asset but a shared resource among their social circles. It is multi-faceted and acquired from diverse sources available in the local and online communities and not limited only to individually held lay accounts of using healthcare services.

Prevalence and associated factors of denture use among older adults living in rural and urban areas of China: a national cross-sectional study

BACKGROUNDS

Tooth loss, often considered as an inevitable result of ageing, is one of the most frequently stated problems with older adults worldwide, which entails a negative impact on physical and mental health, as well as quality of life. However, there is urban-rural gap among older adults in both oral health condition and dental service utilization. The study focused on the urban-rural gap in Chinese older population, aiming to describe their tooth loss and denture use status, and explore the associated factors, hoping to provide insights into improving the oral healthcare system in China and other developing countries.

METHODS

This cross-sectional study used data collected from May to September in 2020. A stratified, multi-stage cluster sampling design was used to produce nationally representative samples of 2709 adults aged 60 years and older. The dependent variable was denture use of the participant. Determinants included demographic characteristics, health status, social support, oral health knowledge and health service utilization. Descriptive analysis was conducted to describe the sample characteristics, and Generalized Linear Mixed Model was used to identify independent factors associated with denture use among older adults in rural and urban China respectively.

RESULTS

There were significant urban-rural differences in tooth loss, denture use and health service utilization among Chinese older adults. Urban participants' denture use was associated with oral health knowledge (OR = 1.29, 95%CI = 1.07-1.56). Rural participants' denture use was associated with oral health knowledge (OR = 1.23, 95%CI = 1.02-1.47), dental checkup in the last six months (OR = 1.19, 95%CI = 1.00-1.40), and social support (OR = 1.22, 95%CI = 1.03-1.44).

CONCLUSIONS

Greater efforts should be made to enhance oral health education and emphasize the importance of regular dental checkups among older population. Targeted focus on different aspects of oral health based on the characteristics of different populations is suggested. Policymakers should be aware of the urban-rural disparity in distribution and utilization of oral health services.

System Dynamics Modeling of Caries Severity States in Long-Term Care

Dental caries among long-term care (LTC) residents is a persistent and complex problem driven by social and structural factors. Systems thinking may be useful in considering novel approaches to reducing disease. This study aimed to develop a system dynamics model to simulate the progression of dentate older adults in LTC through caries severity states and estimate the effects of 3 intervention scenarios on the progression of caries: preventive topical fluoride (TF), arrest of caries with silver diamine fluoride (SDF), and a combination of TF and SDF. Dentate older adults in LTC were categorized into 4 caries severity states by their number of untreated carious lesions. The model assumed that changes in severity states were consistent with incidence rates reported in the literature and available billing data for dental care and that individuals move in and out of the system by entering and exiting the facility or experiencing edentulism. For all scenarios, the proportion of dentate older adults in LTC with 1 or more untreated lesions stays stable, the distribution of disease shifts from a high severity state, and the system approaches equilibrium after 4 y. The TF intervention predicts minimal impacts on decreasing the proportion of dentate older adults with 1 or more untreated lesions (2.5% decrease), while the SDF intervention and the combination interventions were most disruptive. There was a 29.6% and 33.6% decrease, respectively. Given the specific population dynamics in LTC, these findings suggest that long-term (greater than 4 y) interventions should be designed to address both the management of existing lesions and their incidence. This system dynamics model allows researchers to render institution-specific data points from LTCs to estimate the effects of proposed interventions at the respective site.

Projecting the burden of dental caries and periodontal diseases among the adult population in the United Kingdom using a multi-state population model

Objectives

With the aging United Kingdom population, oral diseases are expected to increase. Exploring credible projections is fundamental to understanding the likely impact of emerging population-level interventions on oral disease burden. This study aims at providing a credible, evidence-based projection of the adult population in the United Kingdom with dental caries and periodontal diseases.

Methods

We developed a multi-state population model using system dynamics that disaggregates the adult population in the United Kingdom into different oral health states. The caries population was divided into three states: no caries, treated caries, and untreated caries. The periodontal disease population was disaggregated into no periodontal disease, pocketing between 4 and < 6 mm, 6 and < 9 mm, and 9 mm or more. Data from the 2009 dental health survey in the United Kingdom was used to estimate age and gender-specific prevalence rates as input to the multi-state population model.

Results

Of the population 16 years and older, the number with carious teeth is projected to decrease from 15.742 million in the year 2020 to 15.504 million by the year 2050, representing a decrease of 1.5%. For individuals with carious teeth, the older adult population is estimated to constitute 62.06% by 2050 and is projected to increase 89.4% from 5.079 million in 2020 to 9.623 million by 2050. The adult population with periodontal pocketing is estimated to increase from 25.751 million in 2020 to 27.980 million by 2050, while those with periodontal loss of attachment are projected to increase from 18.667 million in 2020 to 20.898 million by 2050. The burden of carious teeth and periodontal diseases is anticipated to shift from the adult population (16-59 years) to the older adult population. The older adult population with carious teeth is estimated to rise from 32.26% in 2020 to 62.06% by 2050, while that for periodontal disease is expected to increase from 42.44% in 2020 to 54.57% by 2050.

Conclusion

This model provides evidence-based plausible future demand for oral health conditions, allowing policymakers to plan for oral health capacity to address growing needs. Because of the significant delay involved in educating and training oral health personnel, such projections offer policymakers the opportunity to be proactive in planning for future capacity needs instead of being reactive.

Methods to madness: The utility of complex systems science in a mad, mad world

Existing methods in social [oral] epidemiology primarily utilize statistical models that assume static characteristics of individuals and environments. While useful, an over reliance on these methods in the social and behavioural sciences can unnecessarily limit perspective and progress as even the most advanced statistical methods cannot capture complex behaviour over time given that systems evolve, environments respond, and behaviours and beliefs crystalize or deteriorate based on a variety of social, environmental and access variables. The recent consensus statement on Future Directions for the Behavioral and Social Sciences in Oral Health acknowledges that dental, oral and craniofacial health emerge from the complex interplay of multiple factors at multiple levels over time and highlights the need for the incorporation of new and underutilized methodologies. Complex Systems Science offers a suite of tools and methodologies that are responsive to the generative mechanisms and processes that underlie population distributions of oral health and disease. Specifically, they assume intricate, dynamic interactions between individuals and groups, they facilitate the study and synthesis of interconnections between people (e.g. patients, healthcare providers and policy makers), how these change over time, any differences across settings, and provide an opportunity to guide future longitudinal data collection and intervention science more effectively. This paper aims to provide an introduction to foundational principles of complex systems, complex systems thinking, and methods found in complex systems science, including social network analysis, system dynamics models and agent-based models, and offers perspectives on the challenges faced and opportunities afforded in the incorporation of these methods into the population oral health sciences.

Neighbourhoods and oral health: Agent-based modelling of tooth decay

This research used proof of concept agent-based models to test various theoretical mechanisms by which neighbourhoods may influence tooth decay in adults. Theoretical pathways were constructed using existing literature and tested in two study areas in Sheffield, UK. The models found a pathway between shops and sugar consumption had the most influence on adult tooth decay scores, revealing that similar mechanisms influence this outcome in different populations. This highlighted the importance of the interactions between neighbourhood features and individual level variables in influencing outcomes in tooth decay. Further work is required to improve the accuracy and reliability of the models.

Self-rated oral health and frailty index among older Americans

OBJECTIVE

To assess the association between self-rated oral health and frailty index among older American adults aged 60 years and over.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Data from the National Health and Nutrition and Examination Survey from 2011 to 2014 were used. Self-rated oral health was assessed based on a single question "rate the health of your teeth and gum". A frailty index of 49-items covering multiple systems was created. Age, gender, ethnicity, poverty-income ratio, education, poor nutritional intake and smoking were used as covariates. Weighted negative binomial regression was used to test the association between self-rated oral health and frailty index adjusting for the covariates.

RESULTS

A dose response relationship was observed between self-rated oral health and frailty index. The rate ratios (RR) of frailty index were 1.03 (95% CI 0.95-1.13), 1.15 (95% CI 1.05-1.25), 1.30 (95% CI 1.17-1.45) and 1.41(95% CI 1.28-1.54) for participants who rated their oral health very good, good, fair or poor, respectively, compared with those who rated their oral health excellent after adjusting for covariates.

CONCLUSION

Poorer self-rated oral health is associated with higher rates of frailty index. This highlights the importance of oral health as a predictor of frailty and the adequacy of using self-rated oral health in health surveys and clinical practices when conducting a comprehensive clinical oral examination is not feasible.

A System Dynamics Simulation Applied to Healthcare: A Systematic Review

In recent years, there has been significant interest in developing system dynamics simulation models to analyze complex healthcare problems. However, there is a lack of studies seeking to summarize the available papers in healthcare and present evidence on the effectiveness of system dynamics simulation in this area. The present paper draws on a systematic selection of published literature from 2000 to 2019, in order to form a comprehensive view of current applications of system dynamics methodology that address complex healthcare issues. The results indicate that the application of system dynamics has attracted significant attention from healthcare researchers since 2013. To date, articles on system dynamics have focused on a variety of healthcare topics. The most popular research areas among the reviewed papers included the topics of patient flow, obesity, workforce demand, and HIV/AIDS. Finally, the quality of the included papers was assessed based on a proposed ranking system, and ways to improve the system dynamics models' quality were discussed.

A comprehensive assessment for community-based, person-centered care for older adults

Background

Many health and social needs can be assessed and met in community settings, where lower-cost, person-centered, preventative and proactive services predominate. This study reports on the development and implementation of a person-centered care model integrating dental, social, and health services for low-income older adults at a community dental clinic co-located within a senior wellness center.

Methods

A digital comprehensive geriatric assessment (CGA) and referral system linking medical, dental, and psychosocial needs by real-time CGA-derived metrics for 996 older adults (age ≥ 60) was implemented in 2016–2018 as part of a continuous quality improvement project. This study aims to describe: 1) the development and content of a new CGA; 2) CGA implementation, workflows, triage, referrals; 3) correlations between CGA domains, and adjusted regression models, assessing associations with self-reported recent hospitalizations, emergency department (ED) visits, and clinically-assessed dental urgency.

Results

The multidisciplinary team from the senior wellness and dental centers planned and implemented a CGA that included standard medical history along with validated instruments for functional status, mental health and social determinants, and added oral health. Care navigators employed the CGA with 996 older adults, and made 1139 referrals (dental = 797, care coordination = 163, social work = 90, mental health = 32). CGA dimensions correlated between oral health, medical status, depressive symptoms, isolation, and reduced quality of life (QoL). Pain, medical symptoms, isolation and depressive symptoms were associated with poorer self-reported health, while general health was most strongly correlated with lower depressive symptoms, and higher functional status and QoL. Isolation was the strongest correlate of lower QoL.

Adjusted odds ratios identified social and medical factors associated with recent hospitalization and ED visits. General and oral health were associated with dental urgency. Dental urgency was most strongly associated with general health (AOR = 1.78,95%CI [1.31, 2.43]), dental symptoms (AOR = 2.39,95%CI [1.78, 3.20]), dental pain (AOR = 2.06,95%CI [1.55–2.74]), and difficulty chewing (AOR = 2.80, 95%CI [2.09–3.76]). Dental symptoms were associated with recent ED visits (AOR = 1.61, 95%CI [1.12–2.30]) or hospitalizations (AOR = 1.47, 95%CI [1.04–2.10]).

Conclusion

Community-based inter-professional care is feasible with CGAs that include medical, dental, and social factors. A person-centered care model requires coordination supported by new workflows. Real-time metrics-based triage process provided efficient means for client review and a robust process to surface needs in complex cases.

Impact of sugar-sweetened beverage tax on dental caries: a simulation analysis

Background

The tiered sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) tax was implemented in Thailand to encourage industries to reduce sugar content in beverages, and consequently reduce sugar consumption in the population. The aim of the study is to explore the expected impact of the new SSB tax policy in Thailand, a middle-income country in Asia, and other alternative policies on oral health outcomes as measured by the prevalence and severity of dental caries among the Thai population.

Methods

A qualitative system dynamics model that captures the complex interrelationships among SSB tax, sugar consumption and dental caries, was elicited through participatory stakeholder engagement. Based on the qualitative model, a quantitative system dynamics model was developed to simulate the SSB tax policy and other alternative scenarios in order to evaluate their impact on dental caries among Thai adults from 2010 to 2040.

Results

Under the base-case scenario, the dental caries prevalence among the Thai population 15 years and older, is projected to increase from 61.3% in 2010 to 74.9% by 2040. Implementation of SSB tax policy is expected to decrease the prevalence of dental caries by only 1% by 2040, whereas the aggressive policy is projected to decrease prevalence of dental caries by 21% by 2040.

Conclusions

In countries where a majority of the sugar consumed is from non-tax sugary food and beverages, especially Asian countries where street food culture is ubiquitous and contributes disproportionately to sugar intake, SSB tax alone is unlikely to have meaningful impact on oral health unless it is accompanied with a comprehensive public health policy that aims to reduce total sugar intake from non-SSB sources.

Modeling the Influence of Social Ties and Transportation Choice on Access to Oral Healthcare for Older Adults

The current U.S. demographic shift toward an older population and the importance of intervening before conditions become severe warrant a concerted effort to ease the burden of access to healthcare for older adults. With regard to oral healthcare, more integrated services for older adults are needed to effectively serve their complex medical and dental needs. Using an agent-based simulation model, this paper examines the influence of social ties and transportation mode choices on opportunities for older adults to participate in community-based preventive screening events and access needed oral healthcare. This approach accounts for the heterogeneity of behavior that arises for a population exhibiting diversity in terms of social factors, including socioeconomic means and social support. In the context of older adults living in urban environments, the availability of different transportation modes ought to be taken into consideration. To explore alternative scenarios for the accessibility of preventive screening events offered at senior centers in northern Manhattan, an agent-based model (ABM) was created with a geographic information system (GIS) to simulate the influence of social ties and transportation choices on older adults seeking preventive screening services and oral healthcare. Results of simulation experiments indicate preferences for public transportation and inequities in accessibility that may be mitigated with social support. This simulation model offers a way to explore social support as an important factor in making transportation mode choices that mediate oral healthcare accessibility and thus oral health outcomes for older adults.

Using focus groups to design systems science models that promote oral health equity

BACKGROUND

While the US population overall has experienced improvements in oral health over the past 60 years, oral diseases remain among the most common chronic conditions across the life course. Further, lack of access to oral health care contributes to profound and enduring oral health inequities worldwide. Vulnerable and underserved populations who commonly lack access to oral health care include racial/ethnic minority older adults living in urban environments. The aim of this study was to use a systematic approach to explicate cause and effect relationships in creating a causal map, a type of concept map in which the links between nodes represent causality or influence.

METHODS

To improve our mental models of the real world and devise strategies to promote oral health equity, methods including system dynamics, agent-based modeling, geographic information science, and social network simulation have been leveraged by the research team. The practice of systems science modeling is situated amidst an ongoing modeling process of observing the real world, formulating mental models of how it works, setting decision rules to guide behavior, and from these heuristics, making decisions that in turn affect the state of the real world. Qualitative data were obtained from focus groups conducted with community-dwelling older adults who self-identify as African American, Dominican, or Puerto Rican to elicit their lived experiences in accessing oral health care in their northern Manhattan neighborhoods.

RESULTS

The findings of this study support the multi-dimensional and multi-level perspective of access to oral health care and affirm a theorized discrepancy in fit between available dental providers and patients. The lack of information about oral health at the community level may be compromising the use and quality of oral health care among racial/ethnic minority older adults.

CONCLUSIONS

Well-informed community members may fill critical roles in oral health promotion, as they are viewed as highly credible sources of information and recommendations for dental providers. The next phase of this research will involve incorporating the knowledge gained from this study into simulation models that will be used to explore alternative paths toward improving oral health and health care for racial/ethnic minority older adults.

Modeling Accessibility of Screening and Treatment Facilities for Older Adults using Transportation Networks

Increased lifespans and population growth have resulted in an older U.S. society that must reckon with the complex oral health needs that arise as adults age. Understanding accessibility to screening and treatment facilities for older adults is necessary in order to provide them with preventive and restorative services. This study uses an agent-based model to examine the accessibility of screening and treatment facilities via transportation networks for older adults living in the neighborhoods of northern Manhattan, New York City. Older adults are simulated as socioeconomically distinct agents who move along a GIS-based transportation network using transportation modes that mediate their access to screening and treatment facilities. This simulation model includes four types of mobile agents as a simplifying assumption: walk, by car, by bus, or by van (i.e., a form of transportation assistance for older adults). These mobile agents follow particular routes: older adults who travel by car, bus, and van follow street roads, whereas pedestrians follow walkways. The model enables the user to focus on one neighborhood at a time for analysis. The spatial dimension of an older adult's accessibility to screening and treatment facilities is simulated through the travel costs (indicated by travel time or distance) incurred in the GIS-based model environment, where lower travel costs to screening and treatment facilities imply better access. This model provides a framework for representing health-seeking behavior that is contextualized by a transportation network in a GIS environment.

A Protocol for a Feasibility and Acceptability Study of a Participatory, Multi-Level, Dynamic Intervention in Urban Outreach Centers to Improve the Oral Health of Low-Income Chinese Americans

INTRODUCTION

While the US health care system has the capability to provide amazing treatment of a wide array of conditions, this care is not uniformly available to all population groups. Oral health care is one of the dimensions of the US health care delivery system in which striking disparities exist. More than half of the population does not visit a dentist each year. Improving access to oral health care is a critical and necessary first step to improving oral health outcomes and reducing disparities. Fluoride has contributed profoundly to the improved dental health of populations worldwide and is needed regularly throughout the life course to protect teeth against dental caries. To ensure additional gains in oral health, fluoride toothpaste should be used routinely at all ages. Evidence-based guidelines for annual dental visits and brushing teeth with fluoride toothpaste form the basis of this implementation science project that is intended to bridge the care gap for underserved Asian American populations by improving access to quality oral health care and enhancing effective oral health promotion strategies. The ultimate goal of this study is to provide information for the design and implementation of a randomized controlled trial of a participatory, multi-level, partnered (i.e., with community stakeholders) intervention to improve the oral and general health of low-income Chinese American adults.

METHODS

This study will evaluate the feasibility and acceptability of implementing a partnered intervention using remote data entry into an electronic health record (EHR) to improve access to oral health care and promote oral health. The research staff will survey a sample of Chinese American patients (planned n = 90) screened at three outreach centers about their satisfaction with the partnered intervention. Providers (dentists and community health workers), research staff, administrators, site directors, and community advisory board members will participate in structured interviews about the partnered intervention. The remote EHR evaluation will include group adaptation sessions and workflow analyses via multiple recorded sessions with research staff, administrators, outreach site directors, and providers. The study will also model knowledge held by non-patient participants to evaluate and enhance the partnered intervention for use in future implementations.

Agent-Based Modeling in Public Health: Current Applications and Future Directions

Agent-based modeling is a computational approach in which agents with a specified set of characteristics interact with each other and with their environment according to predefined rules. We review key areas in public health where agent-based modeling has been adopted, including both communicable and noncommunicable disease, health behaviors, and social epidemiology. We also describe the main strengths and limitations of this approach for questions with public health relevance. Finally, we describe both methodologic and substantive future directions that we believe will enhance the value of agent-based modeling for public health. In particular, advances in model validation, comparisons with other causal modeling procedures, and the expansion of the models to consider comorbidity and joint influences more systematically will improve the utility of this approach to inform public health research, practice, and policy.

Estimating peer density effects on oral health for community-based older adults

BACKGROUND

As part of a long-standing line of research regarding how peer density affects health, researchers have sought to understand the multifaceted ways that the density of contemporaries living and interacting in proximity to one another influence social networks and knowledge diffusion, and subsequently health and well-being. This study examined peer density effects on oral health for racial/ethnic minority older adults living in northern Manhattan and the Bronx, New York, NY.

METHODS

Peer age-group density was estimated by smoothing US Census data with 4 kernel bandwidths ranging from 0.25 to 1.50 mile. Logistic regression models were developed using these spatial measures and data from the ElderSmile oral and general health screening program that serves predominantly racial/ethnic minority older adults at community centers in northern Manhattan and the Bronx. The oral health outcomes modeled as dependent variables were ordinal dentition status and binary self-rated oral health. After construction of kernel density surfaces and multiple imputation of missing data, logistic regression analyses were performed to estimate the effects of peer density and other sociodemographic characteristics on the oral health outcomes of dentition status and self-rated oral health.

RESULTS

Overall, higher peer density was associated with better oral health for older adults when estimated using smaller bandwidths (0.25 and 0.50 mile). That is, statistically significant relationships (p < 0.01) between peer density and improved dentition status were found when peer density was measured assuming a more local social network. As with dentition status, a positive significant association was found between peer density and fair or better self-rated oral health when peer density was measured assuming a more local social network.

CONCLUSIONS

This study provides novel evidence that the oral health of community-based older adults is affected by peer density in an urban environment. To the extent that peer density signifies the potential for social interaction and support, the positive significant effects of peer density on improved oral health point to the importance of place in promoting social interaction as a component of healthy aging. Proximity to peers and their knowledge of local resources may facilitate utilization of community-based oral health care.

Dynamic modeling approaches to characterize the functioning of health systems: A systematic review of the literature

Universal Health Coverage (UHC) is one of the targets for the United Nations Sustainable Development Goal 3. The impetus for UHC has led to an increased demand for time-sensitive tools to enhance our knowledge of how health systems function and to evaluate impact of system interventions. We define the field of "health system modeling" (HSM) as an area of research where dynamic mathematical models can be designed in order to describe, predict, and quantitatively capture the functioning of health systems. HSM can be used to explore the dynamic relationships among different system components, including organizational design, financing and other resources (such as investments in resources and supply chain management systems) - what we call "inputs" - on access, coverage, and quality of care - what we call "outputs", toward improved health system "outcomes", namely increased levels and fairer distributions of population health and financial risk protection. We undertook a systematic review to identify the existing approaches used in HSM. We identified "systems thinking" - a conceptual and qualitative description of the critical interactions within a health system - as an important underlying precursor to HSM, and collated a critical collection of such articles. We then reviewed and categorized articles from two schools of thoughts: "system dynamics" (SD)" and "susceptible-infected-recovered-plus" (SIR+). SD emphasizes the notion of accumulations of stocks in the system, inflows and outflows, and causal feedback structure to predict intended and unintended consequences of policy interventions. The SIR + models link a typical disease transmission model with another that captures certain aspects of the system that impact the outcomes of the main model. These existing methods provide critical insights in informing the design of HSM, and provide a departure point to extend this research agenda. We highlight the opportunity to advance modeling methods to further understand the dynamics between health system inputs and outputs.

Friendship Network and Dental Brushing Behavior among Middle School Students: An Agent Based Modeling Approach

By using a standard questionnaire, the level of dental brushing frequency was assessed among 201 adolescent female middle school students in Tehran. The initial assessment was repeated after 5 months, in order to observe the dynamics in dental health behavior level. Logistic Regression model was used to evaluate the correlation among individuals' dental health behavior in their social network. A significant correlation on dental brushing habits was detected among groups of friends. This correlation was further spread over the network within the 5 months period. Moreover, it was identified that the average brushing level was improved within the 5 months period. Given that there was a significant correlation between social network's nodes' in-degree value, and brushing level, it was suggested that the observed improvement was partially due to more popularity of individuals with better tooth brushing habit. Agent Based Modeling (ABM) was used to demonstrate the dynamics of dental brushing frequency within a sample of friendship network. Two models with static and dynamic assumptions for the network structure were proposed. The model with dynamic network structure successfully described the dynamics of dental health behavior. Based on this model, on average, every 43 weeks a student changes her brushing habit due to learning from her friends. Finally, three training scenarios were tested by these models in order to evaluate their effectiveness. When training more popular students, considerable improvement in total students' brushing frequency was demonstrated by simulation results.

Enhancing implementation science by applying best principles of systems science

Background

Implementation science holds promise for better ensuring that research is translated into evidence-based policy and practice, but interventions often fail or even worsen the problems they are intended to solve due to a lack of understanding of real world structures and dynamic complexity. While systems science alone cannot possibly solve the major challenges in public health, systems-based approaches may contribute to changing the language and methods for conceptualising and acting within complex systems. The overarching goal of this paper is to improve the modelling used in dissemination and implementation research by applying best principles of systems science.

Discussion

Best principles, as distinct from the more customary term ‘best practices’, are used to underscore the need to extract the core issues from the context in which they are embedded in order to better ensure that they are transferable across settings. Toward meaningfully grappling with the complex and challenging problems faced in adopting and integrating evidence-based health interventions and changing practice patterns within specific settings, we propose and illustrate four best principles derived from our systems science experience: (1) model the problem, not the system; (2) pay attention to what is important, not just what is quantifiable; (3) leverage the utility of models as boundary objects; and (4) adopt a portfolio approach to model building. To improve our mental models of the real world, system scientists have created methodologies such as system dynamics, agent-based modelling, geographic information science and social network simulation. To understand dynamic complexity, we need the ability to simulate. Otherwise, our understanding will be limited. The practice of dynamic systems modelling, as discussed herein, is the art and science of linking system structure to behaviour for the purpose of changing structure to improve behaviour. A useful computer model creates a knowledge repository and a virtual library for internally consistent exploration of alternative assumptions.

Conclusion

Among the benefits of systems modelling are iterative practice, participatory potential and possibility thinking. We trust that the best principles proposed here will resonate with implementation scientists; applying them to the modelling process may abet the translation of research into effective policy and practice.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12961-016-0146-8) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Modeling Social Capital as Dynamic Networks to Promote Access to Oral Healthcare

Social capital, as comprised of human connections in social networks and their associated benefits, is closely related to the health of individuals, communities, and societies at large. For disadvantaged population groups such as older adults and racial/ethnic minorities, social capital may play a particularly critical role in mitigating the negative effects and reinforcing the positive effects on health. In this project, we model social capital as both cause and effect by simulating dynamic networks. Informed in part by a community-based health promotion program, an agent-based model is contextualized in a GIS environment to explore the complexity of social disparities in oral and general health as experienced at the individual, interpersonal, and community scales. This study provides the foundation for future work investigating how health and healthcare accessibility may be influenced by social networks.

Systems science and systems thinking for public health: a systematic review of the field

OBJECTIVES

This paper reports on findings from a systematic review designed to investigate the state of systems science research in public health. The objectives were to: (1) explore how systems methodologies are being applied within public health and (2) identify fruitful areas of activity.

DESIGN

A systematic review was conducted from existing literature that draws on or uses systems science (in its various forms) and relates to key public health areas of action and concern, including tobacco, alcohol, obesity and the social determinants of health.

DATA ANALYSIS

117 articles were included in the review. An inductive qualitative content analysis was used for data extraction. The following were systematically extracted from the articles: approach, methodology, transparency, strengths and weaknesses. These were then organised according to theme (ie, commonalities between studies within each category), in order to provide an overview of the state of the field as a whole. The assessment of data quality was intrinsic to the goals of the review itself, and therefore, was carried out as part of the analysis.

RESULTS

4 categories of research were identified from the review, ranging from editorial and commentary pieces to complex system dynamic modelling. Our analysis of each of these categories of research highlighted areas of potential for systems science to strengthen public health efforts, while also revealing a number of limitations in the dynamic systems modelling being carried out in public health.

CONCLUSIONS

There is a great deal of interest in how the application of systems concepts and approach might aid public health. Our analysis suggests that soft systems modelling techniques are likely to be the most useful addition to public health, and align well with current debate around knowledge transfer and policy. However, the full range of systems methodologies is yet to be engaged with by public health researchers.

Scaling-up impact in perinatology through systems science: Bridging the collaboration and translational divides in cross-disciplinary research and public policy

Despite progress over the past decade in reducing the global burden of newborn deaths, gaps in the knowledge base persist, and means of translating empirical findings into effective policies and programs that deliver life-saving interventions remain poorly understood. Articles in this issue highlight the relevance of transdisciplinary research in perinatology and calls for increased efforts to translate research into public policy and to integrate interventions into existing primary care delivery systems. Given the complexity and multi-causality of many of the remaining challenges in newborn health, and the effects that social and economic factors have over many newborn conditions, it has further been proposed that integrated, multi-sector public policies are also required. In this article, we discuss the application of systems science methods to advance transdisciplinary research and public policy-making in perinatology. Such approaches to research and public policy have been used to address various global challenges but have rarely been implemented in developing country settings. We propose that they hold great promise to improve not only our understanding of complex perinatology problems but can also help translate research-based insights into effective, multi-pronged solutions that deliver positive, intended effects. Examples of successful transdisciplinary science exist, but successes and failures are context specific, and there are no universal blueprints or formulae to reproduce what works in a specific context into different social system settings. Group model building is a tool, based in the field of System Dynamics, that we have used to facilitate transdisciplinary research and, to a lesser extent, policy formulation in a systematic and replicable way. In this article, we describe how group model building can be used and argue for scaling its use to further the translation of empirical evidence and insights into policy and action that increase maternal and neonatal survival and well-being.

The ElderSmile TimeMap: Benefits of Connecting Statistics With Time and Place

Community-based programs are critical for locally targeted public health education and accessible service delivery. Deriving useful information from such programs is important for their own evaluation and improvement and may facilitate research collaboration with partners and experts. Here we present an interactive Web-based application designed for a community-based oral health outreach program called ElderSmile to demonstrate how data can be summarized, filtered, compared, and visualized by time and place to inform program planning, evaluation, and research. The ElderSmile TimeMap ( http://www.acsu.buffalo.edu/∼smetcalf/resources/timemap.html ) is an emergent product of a US National Institutes of Health-funded collaboration of knowledge sharing among multidisciplinary team members at the University at Buffalo, Columbia University, and New York University.

The Impact of Medicaid Expansion on Oral Health Equity for Older Adults: A Systems Perspective

This paper uses a collaborative, interdisciplinary systems science inquiry to explore implications of Medicaid expansion on achieving oral health equity for older adults. Through an iterative modeling process oriented toward the experiences of both patients and oral health care providers, complex feedback mechanisms for promoting oral health equity are articulated that acknowledge the potential for stigma as well as disparities in oral health care accessibility. Multiple factors mediate the impact of Medicaid expansion on oral health equity.

Complexity and dynamism from an urban health perspective: a rationale for a system dynamics approach

In a variety of urban health frameworks, cities are conceptualized as complex and dynamic yet commonly used epidemiological methods have failed to address this complexity and dynamism head on due to their narrow problem definitions and linear analytical representations. Scholars from a variety of disciplines have also long conceptualized cities as systems, but few have modeled urban health issues as problems within a system. Systems thinking in general and system dynamics in particular are relatively new approaches in public health, but ones that hold immense promise as methodologies to model and analyze the complexity underlying urban processes to effectively inform policy actions in dynamic environments. This conceptual essay reviews the utility of applying the concepts, principles, and methods of systems thinking to the study of complex urban health phenomena as a complementary approach to standard epidemiological methods using specific examples and provides recommendations on how to better incorporate systems thinking methods in urban health research and practice.

Strategic directions for agent-based modeling: avoiding the YAAWN syndrome

In this short communication, we examine how agent-based modeling has become common in land change science and is increasingly used to develop case studies for particular times and places. There is a danger that the research community is missing a prime opportunity to learn broader lessons from the use of agent-based modeling (ABM), or at the very least not sharing these lessons more widely. How do we find an appropriate balance between empirically rich, realistic models and simpler theoretically grounded models? What are appropriate and effective approaches to model evaluation in light of uncertainties not only in model parameters but also in model structure? How can we best explore hybrid model structures that enable us to better understand the dynamics of the systems under study, recognizing that no single approach is best suited to this task? Under what circumstances - in terms of model complexity, model evaluation, and model structure - can ABMs be used most effectively to lead to new insight for stakeholders? We explore these questions in the hope of helping the growing community of land change scientists using models in their research to move from 'yet another model' to doing better science with models.