The association of COVID-19 nexus on China's economy: A financial crisis or a health crisis?

This paper analyses the interaction between the novel coronavirus pandemic (COVID-19), unemployment rate, stock market, consumer confidence index (CCI), and economic policy uncertainty (EPU) index in China within a time-frequency framework. We compare the changes in economic indicators during the global financial crisis (GFC) and study the different impacts of the two events on China's economy. An unprecedented impact of COVID-19 shocks on the unemployment rate, CCI, EPU index, and stock market volatility over the low frequency bands is uncovered by applying the coherence wavelet method to China monthly data. The COVID-19 effect on the stock market volatility and the EPU index is substantially higher than on the unemployment rate and the CCI. On the contrary, the GFC's impact on the unemployment rate is much greater than that on the EPU index and CCI. Additionally, the impact of the GFC on the economy is more cyclical in the long-term, while the COVID-19 pandemic is a short-term shock with a relatively short oscillation cycle. This study concludes that the economic impact of COVID-19 will not spread into a financial crisis for China and believe that the COVID-19 pandemic is more of a health event than an economic crisis for Chinese economy.

Employment status, unemployment duration, and health-related metrics among US adults of prime working age: Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System, 2018-2019

BACKGROUND

While unemployment has been associated with poor health, few recent studies in the United States have comprehensively assessed associations between employment status (including duration unemployed) and healthcare access, health-related behaviors, and specific health outcomes.

METHODS

We assessed health-related metrics by employment status in 2018-2019 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System respondents ages 25-54. We calculated the unadjusted prevalence and adjusted prevalence ratios to compare employed workers to respondents who were self-employed, short-term (<12 months) unemployed, long-term unemployed, and unable to work.

RESULTS

Adverse health outcomes increased with unemployment duration and were highest for those unable to work. Non-Hispanic Blacks were most likely to be unemployed or unable to work. Short-term unemployment and self-employment were associated with poor healthcare access. Health behaviors and outcomes declined with increasing duration of unemployment and were worst for those unable to work.

CONCLUSIONS

In the United States, access to affordable healthcare is problematic for both the self-employed and the short-term unemployed. Short-term unemployment is a particularly important locus for intervention and provision of resources to prevent health declines that may hinder re-employment.

Trends of amenable deaths due to healthcare within the European Union countries. Exploring the association with the economic crisis and education

The study of premature deaths from causes that are generally preventable given the current availability of healthcare - called amenable deaths due to healthcare - provides information on the quality of services. However, they are not only impacted by healthcare characteristics: other factors are also likely to influence. Therefore, identifying the association between amenable deaths due to healthcare and health determinants, such as education, might be the key to preventing these deaths in the future. Still unclear however, is how this works and how amenable deaths due to healthcare are distributed and evolve within the European Union (EU) below the national level. We therefore studied the geographical and temporal patterns of amenable deaths due to healthcare in the 259 EU regions from 1999 to 2016, including the 2007-2008 financial crisis and the post-2008 economic downturn, and identified whether any association with education exists. A cross-sectional ecological study was carried out. Using a hierarchical Bayesian model, we estimated the average smoothed Standardized Mortality Ratios (sSMR). A regression model was also applied to measure the relative risks (RR) at 95% credible intervals for cause-specific mortality association with education. Results show that amenable deaths due to healthcare decreased globally. Nevertheless, the decrease is not the same across all regions, and inequalities within countries do persist, with lower mortality ratios seen in regions from Central European countries and higher mortality ratios in regions from Eastern European countries. Also, the evolution trend reveals that after the financial crisis, the number of these deaths increased in regions across almost all EU countries. Moreover, educational disparities in mortality emerged, and a statistical association was found between amenable deaths due to healthcare and early exit from education and training. These results confirm that identifying and understanding the background of regional differences may lead to a better understanding of the amenable deaths due to healthcare and allow for the application of more effective policies.

Socioeconomic inequalities in self-assessed health and mental health in Barcelona, 2001-2016

OBJECTIVE

Previous research has found persistent socioeconomic inequalities in health outcomes at the national level, with different patterns after the economic crisis. However, inequalities in urban areas are also important. This study analyses socioeconomic inequalities in self-assessed health and mental health in the city of Barcelona.

METHOD

Repeated cross-sectional design using quinquennial data from the Barcelona Health Surveys carried out in 2001, 2006, 2011 and 2016 for the population older than 22 years. Robust Poisson regressions models were used to compute socioeconomic gradients and relative (RII) and slope indexes of inequality (SII) by occupational social class, with stratification by sex. RII and SII were also obtained with further adjustment by employment situation.

RESULTS

A consistent socioeconomic gradient was found for all years except for 2011. Relative and absolute inequalities followed a V-shape, showing a drop during the economic crisis but widening thereafter to recover pre-crisis figures for self-assessed health and widening for mental health, in both relative and absolute terms in 2016. Adjustment for employment situation reduces inequalities but a large part of these inequalities remains, with variability across years.

CONCLUSIONS

The lasting effects of the 2008 economic crisis and the austerity programmes imposed since then may have contributed to the persistence of socioeconomic inequalities in self-assessed health and the widening of those for mental health.

Studying the impact of the Eurozone's Great Recession on health: Methodological choices and challenges

Europe's Great Recession provides an opportunity to study the impact of increased financial insecurity on health. A number of studies explored the impact of the Recession on health, but they often reached different conclusions. To understand the root of this debate, we undertook a systematic literature review. Articles were analysed thematically based on: geography, data type, operationalisations of wealth and health, and study design. A critical appraisal was also undertaken. Forty-two studies, published from January 2010 to October 2018, were included in our review. Twenty-six of the forty-two studies found that the Great Recession worsened physical health indicators in the Eurozone. In terms of geography, a large concentration of studies focussed on Spain and Greece, indicating that there may be a gap in understanding the health consequences for EU countries with less severe experiences of the Recession. Regarding data type, nearly all studies used secondary datasets, possibly meaning that studies were constrained by the data available. In terms of operationalisations of wealth and health, a majority of studies used single/simple measures of both, so that these multi-faceted concepts were not fully reflected. Further, fewer than half included studies used panel data, with the remaining studies unable to undertake more causal analyses. The results of the critical appraisal showed that lower-quality studies tended to not find a negative impact of the Recession on health, whereas higher quality studies generally did. In future, we recommend conducting cross-country comparisons, using (inter)nationally-representative panel data conducted over a minimum of a ten-year time horizon, and employing multi-faceted operationalisations of wealth and health. This could provide more common ground across studies, and a clearer indication of whether the Recession impacted health.

How Did Employment and Financial Strain Affect the Self-rated Health of Lone Mothers Around the Time of the Economic Crisis? A Cross-sectional Comparison of the United Kingdom and Sweden

Lone mothers face higher risk of poor self-rated health (SRH) than coupled mothers, partly explained by financial strain, non-employment, and welfare context. Comparing the United Kingdom and Sweden, we sought to determine how the economic crisis of 2008 affected the inequality in lone and coupled mothers SRH and what socioeconomic factors impacted this. Survey data was divided into periods corresponding to before, during, and after the economic crisis. Logistic regression was used to evaluate the impact of socioeconomic factors. Financial strain explained 70%–80% of the excess risk for poor health among Swedish lone mothers and 40% of those in the United Kingdom. Controlling for background and socioeconomic factors eliminated the health inequality among Swedish mothers. In the United Kingdom this inequality remained and may reflect the impact of social mechanisms such as stigma. Converse to what was expected, we did not observe significant variation over time in factors affecting SRH, nor did we find conclusive evidence of the impact of the economic crisis on the SRH of lone mothers. Factors that may account for these counterintuitive results, including retrenchment of the Swedish welfare state, economic lag, and reduction in overall inequality in health, are discussed.

Single transitions and persistence of unemployment are associated with poor health outcomes

Background

Although job loss has been associated with decline in health, the effect of long term unemployment is less clear and under-researched. Furthermore, the impact of an economic recession on this relationship is unclear. We investigated the associations of single transitions and persistence of unemployment with health. We subsequently examined whether these associations are affected by the latest recession, which began in 2008.

Methods

In total, 57,911 participants from the Dutch Health Interview Survey who belonged to the labour force between 2004 and 2014 were included. Based on longitudinal tax registration data, single employment transitions between time point 1 (t1) and time point 2 (t2) and persistent unemployment (i.e. number of years individuals were unemployed) between t1 and time point 5 (t5) were defined. General and mental health, smoking and obesity were assessed at respectively time point 3 (t3) and time point 6 (t6). Logistic regression models were performed and interactions with recession indicators (year, annual gross domestic product estimates and regional unemployment rates) were tested.

Results

Compared with individuals who stayed employed at t1 and t2, the likelihood of poor mental health at the subsequent year was significantly higher in those who became unemployed at t2. Persistent unemployment was associated with poor mental health, especially for those who were persistently unemployed for 5 years. Similar patterns, although less pronounced for smoking, were found for general health and obesity. Indicators of the economic recession did not modify these associations.

Conclusions

Single transitions into unemployment and persistent unemployment are associated with poor mental and general health, obesity, and to a lesser extend smoking. Our study suggests that re-employment might be an important strategy to improve health of unemployed individuals. The relatively extensive Dutch social security system may explain that the economic recession did not modify these associations.

Impact of the great recession on self-perceived health in Spain: a longitudinal study with individual data

OBJECTIVES

Our objective in this study is to evaluate the impact the Great Recession (2008-2014) had on self-perceived health in Spain.

DESIGN

We use a longitudinal database (four waves of the Bank of Spain's Survey of Household Finances (2005, 2008, 2011 and 2014)) with repeated observations of the same individuals before and after the Great Recession.

INTERVENTIONS

We consider the Great Recession in a natural experiment and we introduce it as an explanatory variable in a mixed logistic regression model in which we explain the probability of a subject declaring poor health (fair, bad and very bad). In the model we control for both observed and unobserved confounders at both individual and family level.

RESULTS

We find an average downward trend in self-perceived health during the most severe period of the Great Recession (2009-2011). However, the fact that the adjusted measures are less volatile than the crude ones shows that variation in health status can be captured by either demographic or socioeconomic controls. In fact, there are significant differences in the impact the economic crisis had on health in terms of gender and age group. In particular, the (adjusted) risk of declaring poor health increases after the crisis began but only in those families in which the reference person is a woman younger than 45 years of age or a man aged 75 years or older.

CONCLUSIONS

Given our results, we discuss the link between financial wealth and self-rated health and how policy-makers could address the health inequalities that arise from adverse economic and financial shocks.

Widening health inequalities between the employed and the unemployed: A decomposition of trends in Canada (2000-2014)

Recent developments in the social epidemiological literature indicate that health inequalities between the employed and the unemployed are widening in many advanced capitalist countries. At present, we know relatively little about why these inequalities are worsening. Drawing on nationally-representative data from the largest health survey in Canada, we explored this question by analyzing changes in self-rated health inequalities between employed and unemployed Canadians from 2000 to 2014. Using a regression-based method that decomposes a given inequality into its component sources, we investigated the extent to which risk factors that account for unemployment-related health inequalities at a single point in time can also explain the extent and direction of change in these unemployment-related health inequalities over time. Our results indicate that relative and absolute health inequalities between employed and unemployed Canadians widened over the study period. Between 2000 and 2014, the prevalence of poor self-rated health among unemployed Canadians increased from 10.8% to 14.6%, while rates among employed Canadians were stable at around 6%. Our findings suggest that the demographic, socioeconomic, and proximal risk factors that are routinely used to explain unemployment-related health inequalities may not be as powerful for explaining how and why these inequalities change over time. In the case of unemployment-related health inequalities in Canada, these risk factors explain neither the increasing prevalence of poor self-rated health among the unemployed nor the growing gap between the unemployed and their employed counterparts. We provide several possible explanations for these puzzling findings. We conclude by suggesting that widening health inequalities may be driven by macrosocial trends (e.g. widening income inequality and declining social safety nets) which have changed the meaning and context of unemployment, as well as its associated risk factors, in ways that are not easy to capture using routinely available survey data.

Contrasted trends in health-related quality of life across gender, age categories and work status in France, 1995–2016: repeated population-based cross-sectional surveys using the SF-36

Background

Interest in monitoring health-related quality of life (HRQoL) in general populations has increased in the past 20 years, reinforced by population ageing and repeated economic crises. This study aims to identify temporal trends in HRQoL in France between 1995 and 2016 and to assess disparities according to demographic and socioeconomic characteristics.

Methods

Data from repeated population-based cross-sectional surveys conducted in 1995, 2003 and 2016 were used. HRQoL was measured using the Medical Outcomes Study 36-item Short Form (SF-36) questionnaire.

Results

A substantial decrease in score was observed between 1995 and 2016 for both genders in almost all subscales of the SF-36, with the largest decrease being in the mental health dimension for men. However, the age group 18–54 years were the most affected with persistent negative or even worsening trends in HRQoL. The largest decreases were among men aged 45–54 years and women aged 35–44 years in most dimensions, and among the age group 18–24 years in vitality. Conversely, an overall improvement was noted among the age group 65–84 years. People in employment were more affected than the unemployed by the decline in several HRQoL dimensions.

Conclusion

A general decline in HRQoL was found between 1995 and 2016 in the French population, but with wide disparities in trends between age groups. Young and especially middle-aged, employed people exhibited persistent negative and worsening trends. Consistent with evidence from traditional mental health morbidity and mortality indicators, our findings raise questions about the potential influence of macro-socioeconomic factors, especially the 2008 crisis; these observations deserve special attention from health policy-makers.

Cause-specific sickness absence trends by occupational class and industrial sector in the context of recent labour market changes: a Finnish panel data study

OBJECTIVES

We aimed to provide previously unestablished information on population-based differences in cause-specific sickness absence trends between occupational classes and further between four large industrial sectors within the different occupational classes while controlling for other socioeconomic factors and employment patterns. We focused on the period 2005-2013, during which the labour market underwent large economic and structural changes in many countries.

DESIGN

Register-based panel data study.

SETTING

Large representative datasets on Finnish wage earners aged 25-59 years.

OUTCOME MEASURE

Annual risk of sickness absence (>10 working days) based on repeated logistic regression.

RESULTS

Between 2005 and 2013, the proportion of employees with sickness absence decreased. Occupational class differences in sickness absence trends varied by disease group. Overall, the decrease in absences was smallest among lower non-manual employees. Sickness absence levels were highest in the health and social work sector and in the manufacturing sector within the non-manual and manual classes, respectively. Absences due to musculoskeletal diseases decreased temporarily during the peak of the economic recession in 2009, particularly in the manufacturing sector within the manual class. The decrease in absences due to musculoskeletal diseases was smallest in the trade sector within the lower occupational classes. Overall, education, income and employment patterns partly explained the differences in the absence levels, but not in the trends.

CONCLUSIONS

We found a complex interplay between the associations of occupational class and industrial sector with sickness absence trends. During the economic recession, absences due to musculoskeletal diseases decreased temporarily in a segment of wage earners who were known to have been hit hard by the recession. However, the trend differences were not explained by the measured structural changes in the characteristics of the study population. Both occupational class and industrial sector should be taken into account when tackling problems of work disability.