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Lintonen T, Karjalainen K, Rönkä S, Kotovirta E, Niemelä S. Delphi method applicability in drug foresight. Subst Abuse Treat Prev Policy 2024; 19:35. [PMID: 39068443 PMCID: PMC11282797 DOI: 10.1186/s13011-024-00617-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/24/2023] [Accepted: 07/01/2024] [Indexed: 07/30/2024] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND The aim of the current study was to assess the accuracy of expert predictions, which were derived using a Delphi panel foresight study between 2009 and 2011, on a variety of drug-related topics in Finland in 2020. METHODS The material used to evaluate the accuracy of the predictions consists of published reports on statistics, survey results, official register data, wastewater analyses and official documents. Whenever possible, we used multiple information sources to ascertain possible changes related to the predictions. RESULTS Between 2009 and 2011, the majority - but not all - of the experts accurately predicted an increase in drug use. Indeed, more people experimented with or used drugs, and more drug residues were found in wastewater monitoring. The experts also correctly predicted an increase in population-level approval of drug use, but this development has been rather slow. Contrary to predictions, there was no marked increase in the use of new synthetic drugs. However, the misuse of buprenorphine increased during the 2010s. In the drug market, unit prices were surprisingly stable over the ten-year period. There were no changes in legislation related to the legal status of drugs, as was foreseen by the experts. However, enforcement moved in the direction foreseen by the experts: more lenient measures have been taken against users. Drug care system reforms favored a combination of mental health and addiction care units between 2009 and 2011, and 2020, as foreseen by the experts. CONCLUSIONS It seems to have been easier for the experts to foresee the continuation of existing trends, e.g., increasing use of drugs or widening approval of drugs, than to predict possible changes in the popularity of distinct groups of drugs such as new psychoactive substances (NPS). Even armed with the prediction that drug imports and wholesale would increasingly fall into the domain of organized crime, this undesirable development could not be stopped. Expert disagreement can also be seen as a valuable indication of uncertainty regarding the future. Foresight related to drug-related issues can produce relatively accurate and realistic views of the future at least up to ten years ahead.
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Affiliation(s)
- Tomi Lintonen
- Finnish Foundation for Alcohol Studies, PO Box 30, Helsinki, FI-00271, Finland.
| | | | - Sanna Rönkä
- Finnish Institute for Health and Welfare (THL), Helsinki, Finland
| | | | - Solja Niemelä
- Department of Psychiatry, University of Turku, Turku, Finland
- Department of Psychiatry, Addiction Psychiatry Unit, Turku University Hospital, The Wellbeing Services County of Southwest Finland, Turku, Finland
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Falzon D, Carver H, Masterton W, Wallace B, Sumnall H, Measham F, Craik V, Gittins R, Aston EV, Watson K, Hunter C, Priyadarshi S, Parkes T. Planning and implementing community-based drug checking services in Scotland: a qualitative exploration using the consolidated framework for implementation research. Subst Abuse Treat Prev Policy 2024; 19:7. [PMID: 38233933 PMCID: PMC10795311 DOI: 10.1186/s13011-023-00590-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/27/2023] [Accepted: 12/31/2023] [Indexed: 01/19/2024] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Drug checking services (DCS) provide harm reduction support and advice to individuals based on chemical analysis of submitted substances of concern. Whilst there are currently no DCS in Scotland, community-based services are being planned in three cities. METHODS In this paper, we report qualitative findings based on interviews with 43 participants, focused on perceptions of DCS and their implementation. Participants were relevant professionals, those with experience of drug use, and family members of those with experience of drug use. The Consolidated Framework for Implementation Research (CFIR) was used to inform data collection and analysis. We report findings under nine constructs/themes across the five CFIR domains. RESULTS Participants noted the importance of DCS being implemented in low-threshold, trusted services with a harm reduction ethos, and outlined a range of further service design considerations such as speed of testing, and information provided through the analysis process. In relation to the 'inner setting', a key finding related to the potential value of leveraging existing resources in order to expand both reach and effectiveness of drug trend communication. The approach of local and national police to DCS, and the attitudes of the public and local community, were described as important external factors which could influence the success (or otherwise) of implementation. Bringing together a range of stakeholders in dialogue and developing tailored communication strategies were seen as ways to build support for DCS. Overall, we found high levels of support and perceived need for DCS amongst all stakeholder groups. CONCLUSIONS Our findings present initial implementation considerations for Scotland which could be further explored as DCS are operationalised. Further, our focus on implementation contexts is relevant to research on DCS more generally, given the minimal consideration of such issues in the literature.
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Affiliation(s)
- Danilo Falzon
- Faculty of Social Sciences, University of Stirling, FK9 4LA, Stirling, UK.
| | - Hannah Carver
- Faculty of Social Sciences, University of Stirling, FK9 4LA, Stirling, UK
| | - Wendy Masterton
- Faculty of Social Sciences, University of Stirling, FK9 4LA, Stirling, UK
| | - Bruce Wallace
- Canadian Institute for Substance Use Research, University of Victoria, BCV8P 5C2, Victoria, Canada
| | - Harry Sumnall
- School of Psychology, Faculty of Health, Liverpool John Moores University, L2 2QP, Liverpool, UK
| | - Fiona Measham
- Department of Sociology, Social Policy and Criminology, University of Liverpool, L69 7ZR, Liverpool, UK
- The Loop, Registered Charity, M13 9PL, Manchester, UK
| | | | | | - Elizabeth V Aston
- School of Applied Sciences, Edinburgh Napier University, EH11 4BN, Edinburgh, UK
| | - Kira Watson
- Scottish Ambulance Service, EH12 9EB, Edinburgh, UK
| | - Carole Hunter
- Alcohol and Drug Services, NHS Greater Glasgow and Clyde, G51 1DP, Glasgow, UK
| | - Saket Priyadarshi
- Alcohol and Drug Services, NHS Greater Glasgow and Clyde, G51 1DP, Glasgow, UK
| | - Tessa Parkes
- Faculty of Social Sciences, University of Stirling, FK9 4LA, Stirling, UK
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Unlu A, Hupli A. Twitter activity surrounding the Finnish green party's cannabis legalisation proposal: A mixed-methods analysis. NORDIC STUDIES ON ALCOHOL AND DRUGS 2023; 40:625-645. [PMID: 38045011 PMCID: PMC10688398 DOI: 10.1177/14550725231171022] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/20/2022] [Accepted: 04/05/2023] [Indexed: 12/05/2023] Open
Abstract
Background: In September 2021, a Finnish political party, the Greens, voted to include cannabis policy reform in their party programme, which would legalise the use, possession, manufacture and sale of cannabis. A rapid public discussion has emerged on different social media platforms, including Twitter. Methods: We downloaded 10 days of Twitter data and prepared it for further text analysis, including sentiment, topic modelling and thematic content analysis. Results: Before the proposal, the average daily number of tweets was approximately 140. However, during the week of the proposal, there was a significant increase in tweet volume, reaching a peak of 6,600 tweets on a single day, with a daily average of over 2,700 tweets. Sentiment analysis showed that during the public discussion, the sentiment scores of the tweets were more likely to be positive. Through topic modelling analysis, we obtained the weight of the topic for each tweet, which enabled us to identify the most representative tweets in our corpus. To narrow the sample size for content analysis, we selected tweets that had a topic percentage distribution of over 0.95 (N=188) for closer thematic content analysis. Several positive and negative themes emerged, which were then categorised under broader topics. Similar themes were identified in the most retweeted, liked and commented tweets, which came mainly from known public figures, including politicians, health experts and NGO leaders. Conclusion: Our results show that the discussion was not limited to cannabis legalisation, but instead covered a variety of topics related to drug policy.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ali Unlu
- Finnish Institute for Health and Welfare (THL), Alcohol, Drugs and Tobacco Unit, Mannerheimintie, Helsinki, Finland; and Department of Computer Science, Aalto University, Espoo, Finland
| | - Aleksi Hupli
- Emerging Technologies Lab, Faculty of Social Sciences, Tampere University, Aalto, Finland
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Effects of media representations of drug related deaths on public stigma and support for harm reduction. THE INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF DRUG POLICY 2023; 111:103909. [PMID: 36399962 DOI: 10.1016/j.drugpo.2022.103909] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 7.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/09/2022] [Revised: 10/21/2022] [Accepted: 11/04/2022] [Indexed: 11/17/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Drug related deaths (DRD) are at historically high levels in the United Kingdom (UK), but some approaches that have the potential to reduce risk of mortality remain controversial. Public support makes an important contribution to drug policy development but there are high levels of public stigma towards people who use drugs (PWUD), and this is partly shaped by media representations. We investigated whether depiction of the characteristics of decedents represented in news articles about DRD was associated with differences in stigmatising attitudes and support for harm reduction policy. METHODS We undertook a cross-sectional online study with a randomised design, conducted with a nationally representative sample (UK). Participants (N = 1280) were randomly presented with one of eight simulated news stories that reported on a DRD that differed with respect to drug (ecstasy or heroin), and the gender (male or female) and age (younger or older) of the decedent. Data were analysed using MANOVA. RESULTS Data were obtained for 1248 participants (51.0% female; mean age 45.7±15.4). Stigma was higher towards depictions of male, older, and heroin deaths (all p < .001). Harm reduction support was higher in those participants seeing older compared to younger subjects (p = .035), and the older ecstasy decedent compared to younger decedent (p = .029). CONCLUSION Presentation of some types of DRD are associated with higher public stigma towards the decedent than others. Those groups developing agenda-setting activities designed to reduce stigma or foster public support for harm reduction policies should consider the different ways in which audiences may respond to the depiction and framing of DRD in news media.
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Nicholls J, Livingston W, Perkins A, Cairns B, Foster R, Trayner KMA, Sumnall HR, Price T, Cairney P, Dumbrell J, Parkes T. Drug Consumption Rooms and Public Health Policy: Perspectives of Scottish Strategic Decision-Makers. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2022; 19:6575. [PMID: 35682161 PMCID: PMC9180147 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph19116575] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/02/2022] [Revised: 05/09/2022] [Accepted: 05/26/2022] [Indexed: 02/04/2023]
Abstract
There is widespread support for the introduction of Drug Consumption Rooms (DCRs) in Scotland as part of a policy response to record levels of drug-related harm. However, existing legal barriers are made more complex by the division of relevant powers between the UK and Scottish Governments. This paper reports on a national, qualitative study of key decision-makers in both local and national roles across Scotland. It explores views on the political barriers and enablers to the adoption of Drug Consumption Rooms and the potential role of these facilities in the wider treatment system. It also considers approaches to evidence, especially the types of evidence that are considered valuable in supporting decision-making in this area. The study found that Scottish decision-makers are strongly supportive of DCR adoption; however, they remain unclear as to the legal and political mechanisms that would make this possible. They view DCRs as part of a complex treatment and support system rather than a uniquely transformative intervention. They see the case for introduction as sufficient, on the basis of need and available evidence, thus adopting a pragmatic and iterative approach to evidence, in contrast to an appeal to traditional evidence hierarchies more commonly adopted by the UK Government.
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Affiliation(s)
- James Nicholls
- Faculty of Health Sciences and Sport, University of Stirling, Stirling FK9 4LA, UK
| | - Wulf Livingston
- Faculty of Social and Life Sciences, Glyndwr University, Wrexham LL11 2AW, UK;
| | - Andy Perkins
- Figure 8 Consultancy, Dundee DD4 0HU, UK; (A.P.); (B.C.)
| | - Beth Cairns
- Figure 8 Consultancy, Dundee DD4 0HU, UK; (A.P.); (B.C.)
| | - Rebecca Foster
- Faculty of Social Sciences, University of Stirling, Stirling FK9 4LA, UK; (R.F.); (T.P.); (J.D.); (T.P.)
| | - Kirsten M. A. Trayner
- School of Health and Life Sciences, Glasgow Caledonian University, Glasgow G4 0BA, UK;
| | - Harry R. Sumnall
- Faculty of Health, Liverpool John Moores University, Liverpool L2 2QB, UK;
| | - Tracey Price
- Faculty of Social Sciences, University of Stirling, Stirling FK9 4LA, UK; (R.F.); (T.P.); (J.D.); (T.P.)
| | - Paul Cairney
- Faculty of Arts and Humanities, University of Stirling, Stirling FK9 4LA, UK;
| | - Josh Dumbrell
- Faculty of Social Sciences, University of Stirling, Stirling FK9 4LA, UK; (R.F.); (T.P.); (J.D.); (T.P.)
| | - Tessa Parkes
- Faculty of Social Sciences, University of Stirling, Stirling FK9 4LA, UK; (R.F.); (T.P.); (J.D.); (T.P.)
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