Nationwide time trends in patients hospitalized for acute coronary syndrome: a worrying generational and social effect among women

AIMS

To estimate the time trends in the annual incidence of patients hospitalized for acute coronary syndrome (ACS) in France from 2009 to 2021 and to analyse the current sex and social differences in ACS, management, and prognosis.

METHODS AND RESULTS

All patients hospitalized for ACS in France were selected from the comprehensive National Health Insurance database. Age-standardized rates were computed overall and according to age group (over or under 65 years), sex, proxy of socioeconomic status, and ACS subtype [ST-segment elevation (STSE) and non-ST-segment elevation]. Patient characteristics and outcomes were described for patients hospitalized in 2019. Differences in management (coronarography, revascularization), and prognosis were analysed by sex, adjusting for cofonders. In 2019, 143,670 patients were hospitalized for ACS, including 53,227 STSE-ACS (mean age = 68.8 years; 32% women). Higher standardized incidence rates among the most socially deprived people were observed. Women were less likely to receive coronarography and revascularization but had a higher excess in-hospital mortality. In 2019, the age-standardized rate for hospitalized ACS patients reached 210 per 100 000 person-year. Between 2009 and 2019, these rates decreased by 11.4% (men: -11.2%; women: -14.0%). Differences in trends of age-standardized incidence rate have been observed according to sex, age, and social status. Middle aged women (45-64 years) showing more unfavourable trends than in other age classes or in men. In addition, among women the temporal trends were more unfavourable as social deprivation increased.

CONCLUSION

Despite encouraging overall trends in patients hospitalized for ACS rates, the increasing trends observed among middle-aged women, especially socially deprived women, is worrying. Targeted cardiovascular prevention and close surveillance of this population should be encouraged.

Sex-specific temporal trends in the incidence and prevalence of cardiovascular disease in young adults: a population-based study using UK primary care data

AIMS

There is concern that cardiovascular disease (CVD) in young adults is rising. However, current trends in the UK are unknown. We investigated sex-specific trends in the incidence and prevalence of CVD in young UK adults.

METHODS AND RESULTS

A series of annual (1998-2017) cohort and cross-sectional studies were conducted to estimate incidence rates and prevalence in men and women aged 16-50. Joinpoint regression models were fitted to evaluate changes in trends. From 1998 to 2017, incidence and prevalence had an overall downward trend for ischaemic heart disease (IHD) and angina, while coronary revascularization, stroke/transient ischaemic attack (TIA), and heart failure (HF) had an upward trend in both sexes. Myocardial infarction (MI) trends were stable in men and increased in women. For incidence, the average annual percentage change (AAPC) for men vs. women, respectively, was IHD -2.6% vs. -3.4%; angina -7.0% vs. -7.3%; MI 0.01% vs. 2.3%; revascularization 1.1% vs. 3.9%; stroke/TIA 1.9% vs. 0.6%; HF 5.6% vs. 5.0% (P for trend <0.05 for all except MI and revascularization in men and stroke/TIA in women). For prevalence, AAPCs for men vs. women, respectively, were IHD -2.8% vs. -4.9%; angina -7.2% vs. -7.8%; MI -0.2% vs. 2.0; revascularization 3.2% vs. 4.1%; stroke/TIA 3.1% vs. 3.6%; HF 5.0% vs. 3.0% (P for trend <0.05 for all except MI in men). In recent years, IHD and revascularization trends levelled off, while stroke/TIA and HF trends increased in both sexes.

CONCLUSION

Overall trends in incidence and prevalence of CVD are worsening in young adults. Factors behind unfavourable trends warrant investigation and public health intervention.

Coronary Artery Disease in Very Young Patients: Analysis of Risk Factors and Long-Term Follow-Up

Coronary artery disease (CAD) is a common chronic condition in the elderly. However, the earlier CAD begins, the stronger its impact on lifestyle and costs of health and social care. The present study analyzes clinical and angiographic features and the outcome of very young patients undergoing coronary angiography due to suspected CAD, including a nested case-control study of ≤40-year-old patients referred for coronary angiography. Patients were divided into two groups: cases with significant angiographic stenosis, and controls with non-significant stenosis. Of the 19,321 coronary angiographies performed in our center in a period of 10 years, 504 (2.6%) were in patients ≤40 years. The most common cardiovascular risk factors for significant CAD were smoking (OR 2.96; 95% CI 1.65–5.37), dyslipidemia (OR 2.18; 95% CI 1.27–3.82), and family history of CAD (OR 1.95; 95% CI 1.05–3.75). The incidence of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) at follow-up was significantly higher in the cases compared to controls (HR 2.71; 95% CI 1.44–5.11). Three conventional coronary risk factors were directly related to the early signs of CAD. MACE in the long-term follow-up is associated to dyslipidaemia and hypertriglyceridemia. Focusing efforts for the adequate control of CAD in young patients is a priority given the high socio-medical cost that this disease entails to society.

Using Machine Learning Techniques to Predict MACE in Very Young Acute Coronary Syndrome Patients

Coronary artery disease is a chronic disease with an increased expression in the elderly. However, different studies have shown an increased incidence in young subjects over the last decades. The prediction of major adverse cardiac events (MACE) in very young patients has a significant impact on medical decision-making following coronary angiography and the selection of treatment. Different approaches have been developed to identify patients at a higher risk of adverse outcomes after their coronary anatomy is known. This is a prognostic study of combined data from patients ≤40 years old undergoing coronary angiography (n = 492). We evaluated whether different machine learning (ML) approaches could predict MACE more effectively than traditional statistical methods using logistic regression (LR). Our most effective model for long-term follow-up (60 ± 27 months) was random forest (RF), obtaining an area under the curve (AUC) = 0.79 (95%CI 0.69-0.88), in contrast with LR, obtaining AUC = 0.66 (95%CI 0.53-0.78, p = 0.021). At 1-year follow-up, the RF test found AUC 0.80 (95%CI 0.71-0.89) vs. LR 0.50 (95%CI 0.33-0.66, p < 0.001). The results of our study support the hypothesis that ML methods can improve both the identification of MACE risk patients and the prediction vs. traditional statistical techniques even in a small sample size. The application of ML techniques to focus the efforts on the detection of MACE in very young patients after coronary angiography could help tailor upfront follow-up strategies in such young patients according to their risk of MACE and to be used for proper assignment of health resources.

Epidemiological trends in mortality, event rates and case fatality of acute myocardial infarction from 2004 to 2015: results from the KORA MI registry

AIM

This study examines epidemiological trends of acute myocardial infarction (AMI) in Germany from 2004-2015 across different age groups, using data of the population-based KORA myocardial infarction registry.

METHODS

Annual age-standardised, age-group- and sex-specific mortality and event rates (incident and recurrent) per 100,000 population as well as 28-day case fatality were calculated from all registered cases of AMI and coronary heart disease deaths in 25-74-year-olds from 2004-2015 and 75-84-year-olds from 2009-2015. Average annual percentage changes (AAPC) were calculated by joinpoint regression.

RESULTS

Mortality rates declined considerably among the elderly (75-84 years), in men by -6.0% annually, due to declines of case fatality by -3.0% and incidence rate by 3.4% and in women by -10.0%, driven by declines in incidence (-9.1%) and recurrence rate (-4.9%). Significant mortality declines also occurred in males, 65-74 years of age (AAPC -3.8%). Among the age groups 25-54 years and 55-64 years, there was no substantial decline in mortality, event rates or case fatality except for a decline of incidence rate in 55-64-year-old men (AAPC -1.8%).

CONCLUSION

Inhomogeneous AMI trends across age-groups indicate progress in prevention and treatment for the population >64 years, while among <55-year-olds, we found no significant trend in AMI morbidity and mortality.KEY MESSAGESAge standardised AMI mortality continued to decline from 2009 to 2015 in the study region.Declines in AMI mortality were driven by declines in event rates (both incidence and recurrence rates) and case fatality.AMI trends were inconsistent across different age groups with the strongest declines in mortality and event rates among the elderly population (75-84 years of age).

Recent trends in cardiovascular disease deaths: a state specific perspective

BACKGROUND

The rate of decline in cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality has lessened nationally. How these findings apply to specific states or causes of CVD deaths is not known. Examining these trends at the state level is important to plan local interventions.

METHODS

We analyzed CVD mortality trends in Minnesota (MN) using the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) Wide-ranging ONline Data for Epidemiologic Research (WONDER). Trends were analyzed by age, sex, type of CVD and location of death.

RESULTS

CVD mortality rates in MN declined in 2000-2009 and then leveled off in 2010-2018, paralleling national rates. Age- and sex-adjusted CVD mortality decreased by 3.7% per year in 2000-2009 (average annual percent changes [AAPC]: -3.7; 95% CI: - 4.8, - 2.6) with no change observed in 2010-2018. Those aged 65-84 years had the most rapid early decline in CVD mortality (AAPC: -5.9, 95% CI: - 6.2, - 5.7) and had less improvement in 2010-2018 (AAPC: -1.8, 95% CI: - 2.2, - 1.5), and the younger age group (25-64 years) now experiences the most adverse trends (AAPC: 1.2, 95% CI: 0.7-1.8). Coronary heart disease (CHD) and cerebrovascular disease had the largest relative decreases in mortality in 2000-2009 (CHD AAPC: -5.2; 95% CI: - 6.5,-3.9; cerebrovascular disease AAPC: -4.4, 95% CI: - 5.2, - 3.6) with no change 2010-2018. Heart failure (HF)/cardiomyopathy followed similar trends with a 2.5% decrease (AAPC 95% CI: - 3.5, - 1.5) per year in 2000-2009 and no change in 2010-2018. Deaths from other CVD also decreased in the early time period (AAPC: -1.6, 95% CI: - 2.7, - 0.5) but increased in 2010-2018 (AAPC: 1.9, 95% CI: 0.5, 3.3). In- and out-of-hospital death rates improved in 2000-2009 with a slowing in improvement for in-hospital death and no further improvement for out-of-hospital death in 2010-2018.

CONCLUSION

Concerning CVD mortality trends occurred in MN. In the most recent decade (2010-2018) mortality from all CVD subtypes plateaued or even increased. CVD mortality among the younger age groups increased as well. These data are congruent with adverse national trends supporting their generalizability. These adverse trends underscore the urgent need for CVD prevention and treatment, as well as continued surveillance to assess progress at the state and national level.

Trends in blood pressure, blood lipids, and smoking from 259 753 patients with hypertension in a Swedish primary care register: results from QregPV

AIMS

To describe 8-year trends in blood pressure (BP) control, blood lipid control, and smoking habits in patients with hypertension from QregPV, a primary care register in the Region of Västra Götaland, Sweden.

METHODS AND RESULTS

QregPV features clinical data on BP, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), and smoking habits in 392 277 patients with hypertension or coronary heart disease or diabetes mellitus or any combination of the three diagnoses. Data from routine clinical practice have been automatically reported on a monthly basis to QregPV from all primary care centres in Västra Götaland (population 1.67 million) since 2010. Additional data on diagnoses, dispensed drugs and socioeconomic factors were acquired through linkage to regional and national registers. We identified 259 753 patients with hypertension, but without coronary heart disease and diabetes mellitus, in QregPV. From 2010 to 2017, the proportion of patients with BP <140/90 mmHg increased from 38.9% to 49.1%, while the proportion of patients with LDL-C <2.6 mmol/L increased from 19.7% to 21.1% and smoking decreased from 15.7% to 12.3%. However, in 2017, only 10.0% of all patients with hypertension had attained target levels of BP <140/90 mmHg, LDL-C < 2.6 mmol/L while being also non-smokers. The remaining 90.0% were still exposed to at least one uncontrolled, modifiable risk factor for cardiovascular disease.

CONCLUSIONS

These regionwide data from eight consecutive years in 259 753 patients with hypertension demonstrate a large potential for risk factor improvement. An increased use of statins and antihypertensive drugs should, in addition to lifestyle modifications, decrease the risk of cardiovascular disease in these patients.

Global, regional, and national quality of care of ischaemic heart disease from 1990 to 2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

AIMS

By 2030, we seek to reduce premature deaths from non-communicable diseases, including ischaemic heart disease (IHD), by one-third to reach the sustainable development goal (SDG) target 3.4. We aimed to investigate the quality of care of IHD across countries, genders, age groups, and time using the Global Burden of Diseases Study (GBD) 2017 estimates.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We did a principal component analysis on IHD mortality to incidence ratio, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) to prevalence ratio, and years of life lost to years lived with disability ratio using the results of the GBD 2017. The first principal component was scaled from 0 to 100 and designated as the quality of care index (QCI). We evaluated gender inequity by the gender disparity ratio (GDR), defined as female to male QCI. From 1990 to 2017, the QCI and GDR increased from 71.2 to 76.4 and from 1.04 to 1.08, respectively, worldwide. In the study period, countries of Western Europe, Scandinavia, and Australasia had the highest QCIs and a GDR of 1 to 1.2; however, African and South Asian countries had the lowest QCIs and a GDR of 0.8 to 1. Moreover, the young population experienced more significant improvements in the QCI compared to the elderly in 2017.

CONCLUSION

From 1990 to 2017, the QCI of IHD has improved; nonetheless, there are remarkable disparities between countries, genders, and age groups that should be addressed. These findings may guide policymakers in monitoring and modifying our path to achieve SDGs.