Agreement Between Administrative Database and Medical Chart Review for the Prediction of Chronic Kidney Disease G category

Long-term outcomes of patients with toxic shock syndrome: A matched cohort study

OBJECTIVES

We examined long-term outcomes of toxic shock syndrome.

METHODS

We conducted a matched cohort study of 630 patients with toxic shock syndrome and 5009 healthy controls between 2006 and 2021 in Quebec, Canada. Outcomes included hospitalization for renal, cardiovascular, hepatic, and other morbidity during 15 years of follow-up. We estimated adjusted hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for the risk of these outcomes over time, comparing patients with toxic shock syndrome relative to matched controls.

RESULTS

Compared with healthy controls, rehospitalization rates at 15 years were higher for men with toxic shock syndrome (52.0 vs 30.0 per 100) but not for women (38.7 vs 45.6 per 100). In men, toxic shock syndrome was associated with an elevated risk of renal (HR 17.43, 95% CI 6.35-47.82), cardiovascular (HR 2.57; 95% CI 1.52-4.34), and hepatic hospitalization (HR 19.83, 95% CI 4.72-83.34). In women, toxic shock syndrome was associated with renal hospitalization (HR 4.71, 95% CI 1.94-11.45). Streptococcal toxic shock was associated with a greater risk of rehospitalization than staphylococcal toxic shock.

CONCLUSIONS

Toxic shock syndrome is associated with rehospitalization up to 15 years later, especially in men. These patients may benefit from continued follow-up to prevent long-term morbidity.

Loneliness, social isolation and incident chronic kidney disease among patients with diabetes

Background

Individuals with diabetes have a significantly higher risk of developing chronic kidney disease (CKD) and higher levels of social isolation and loneliness compared with those without diabetes. Recently, the American Heart Association highlighted the importance of considering social determinants of health (SDOH) in conjunction with traditional risk factors in patients with diabetes.

Aims

To investigate the associations of loneliness and social isolation with incident CKD risk in patients with diabetes in the UK Biobank.

Methods

A total of 18 972 patients with diabetes were included in this prospective study. Loneliness and Social Isolation Scales were created based on self-reported factors. An adjusted Cox proportional hazard model was used to investigate the associations of loneliness and social isolation with CKD risk among patients with diabetes. The relative importance in predicting CKD was also calculated alongside traditional risk factors.

Results

During a median follow-up of 10.8 years, 1127 incident CKD cases were reported. A higher loneliness scale, but not social isolation, was significantly associated with a 25% higher risk of CKD, independent of traditional risk factors, among patients with diabetes. Among the individual loneliness factors, the sense of feeling lonely emerged as the primary contributing factor to the elevated risk of CKD. Compared with individuals not experiencing feelings of loneliness, those who felt lonely exhibited a 22% increased likelihood of developing CKD. In addition, feeling lonely demonstrated greater relative importance of predicting CKD compared with traditional risk factors such as body mass index, smoking, physical activity and diet.

Conclusions

This study indicates the significant relationship between loneliness and CKD risk among patients with diabetes, highlighting the need to address SDOH in preventing CKD in this population.

Diagnostic Validity of Chronic Kidney Disease in Health Claims Data Over Time: Results from a Cohort of Community-Dwelling Older Adults in Germany

Purpose

The validity of ICD-10 diagnostic codes for chronic kidney disease (CKD) in health claims data has not been sufficiently studied in the general population and over time.

Patients and Methods

We used data from the Berlin Initiative Study (BIS), a prospective longitudinal cohort of community-dwelling individuals aged ≥70 years in Berlin, Germany. With estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) as reference, we assessed the diagnostic validity (sensitivity, specificity, positive [PPV], and negative predictive values [NPV]) of different claims-based ICD-10 codes for CKD stages G3-5 (eGFR <60mL/min/1.73m²: ICD-10 N18.x-N19), G3 (eGFR 30-<60mL/min/1.73m²: N18.3), and G4-5 (eGFR <30mL/min/1.73m²: N18.4-5). We analysed trends over five study visits (2009-2019).

Results

We included data of 2068 participants at baseline (2009-2011) and 870 at follow-up 4 (2018-2019), of whom 784 (38.9%) and 440 (50.6%) had CKD G3-5, respectively. At baseline, sensitivity for CKD in claims data ranged from 0.25 (95%-confidence interval [CI] 0.22-0.28) to 0.51 (95%-CI 0.48-0.55) for G3-5, depending on the included ICD-10 codes, 0.20 (95%-CI 0.18-0.24) for G3, and 0.36 (95%-CI 0.25-0.49) for G4-5. Over the course of 10 years, sensitivity increased by 0.17 to 0.29 in all groups. Specificity, PPVs, and NPVs remained mostly stable over time and ranged from 0.82-0.99, 0.47-0.89, and 0.66-0.98 across all study visits, respectively.

Conclusion

German claims data showed overall agreeable performance in identifying older adults with CKD, while differentiation between stages was limited. Our results suggest increasing sensitivity over time possibly attributable to improved CKD diagnosis and awareness.

Antipsychotics and Risks of Cardiovascular and Cerebrovascular Diseases and Mortality in Dwelling Community Older Adults

This study aims to investigate the effect of antipsychotic agents on cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases (CVD/CEV) and mortality risks in the older population living in a community. A cohort of 42,650 new users of antipsychotic agents was built using Quebec healthcare databases (1998-2011). The outcomes were CVD/CEV and mortality incidence in 5 years of follow-up in the total cohort, sub-cohort of patients with no schizophrenia/dementia, sub-cohort with schizophrenia, and sub-cohort with dementia. Comparisons were made between the new users who continued the treatment (adherent level ≥ 60%) vs. those ceasing treatment (adherence level < 60%) using inverse probability of treatment weighting and Cox models. Comparing high adherence vs. low levels, CVD/CEV risk was increased by 36% in the sub-cohort with schizophrenia for atypical antipsychotic users and by 25% in the sub-cohort with dementia for typical antipsychotic users. An increasing mortality risk of 2- to 3-fold was linked with the typical antipsychotic use in all cohorts except the sub-cohort with schizophrenia; in addition, mortality risk is linked with the use of high vs. low doses. Antipsychotics were not linked with CVD/CEV risk, except for atypical antipsychotics in patients with schizophrenia and typical antipsychotics in patients with dementia. The mortality risk was linked with the use of typical antipsychotics and the dose used.

Effectiveness and safety of apixaban and rivaroxaban vs warfarin in patients with atrial fibrillation and chronic kidney disease

BACKGROUND

Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) of direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs) included a low proportion of atrial fibrillation (AF) patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD), and suggested that DOACs are safe and effective in patients with mild-to-moderate CKD. In a metanalysis of RCTs and observational studies, DOACs were associated with better efficacy (vs warfarin) in early CKD and had similar efficacy and safety profiles in patients with stages IV-V CKD. But few studies have provided data on the safety and effectiveness of each DOAC vs warfarin in patients with stage III CKD. The effectiveness and safety of DOACs in those patients are still subject to debate.

AIM

To assess and compare the effectiveness and safety of apixaban and rivaroxaban vs warfarin in this patient population.

METHODS

A cohort of patients with an inpatient or outpatient code for AF and stage III CKD who were newly prescribed apixaban and rivaroxaban was created using the administrative databases from the Quebec province of Canada between 2013 and 2017. The primary effectiveness outcome was a composite of ischemic stroke, systemic embolism, and death, whereas the primary safety outcome was a composite of major bleeding within a year of DOAC vs warfarin initiation. Treatment groups were compared in an under-treatment analysis using inverse probability of treatment weighting and Cox proportional hazards.

RESULTS

A total of 8899 included patients filled out a new oral anticoagulation therapy claim; 3335 for warfarin and 5564 for DOACs. Compared with warfarin, 15 mg and 20 mg rivaroxaban presented a similar effectiveness and safety composite risk. Apixaban 5.0 mg was associated with a lower effectiveness composite risk [Hazard ratio (HR) 0.76; 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.65-0.88] and a similar safety risk (HR 0.94; 95%CI: 0.66-1.35). Apixaban 2.5 mg was associated with a similar effectiveness composite (HR 1.00; 95%CI: 0.79-1.26) and a lower safety risk (HR 0.65; 95%CI: 0.43-0.99. Although, apixaban 5.0 mg was associated with a better effectiveness (HR 0.76; 95%CI: 0.65-0.88), but a similar safety risk profile (HR 0.94; 95%CI: 0.66-1.35). The observed improvement in the effectiveness composite for apixaban 5.0 mg was driven by a reduction in mortality (HR 0.61; 95%CI: 0.43-0.88).

CONCLUSION

In comparison with warfarin, rivaroxaban and apixaban appear to be effective and safe in AF patients with stage III CKD.

Adherence to Life's Essential 8 and incident chronic kidney disease: a prospective study of 147,988 UK Biobank participants

BACKGROUND

The American Heart Association recently updated Life's Essential 8 (LE8) score. This amalgamation of health factors, recognized for their individual associations with chronic kidney disease (CKD) risk, provides a robust tool to assess overall cardiovascular health (CVH), which could potentially be extrapolated to predict CKD risk.

OBJECTIVES

This study aimed to investigate the association between levels of CVH, as measured by the LE8 score, and risk of CKD in the UK Biobank.

METHODS

A total of 147,988 participants free of CKD and cardiovascular disease from the UK Biobank were included in this prospective study. CVH levels were categorized as low (0-49), moderate (50-79), and high (80-100) using LE8 score. An adjusted Cox proportional hazard model was used to investigate the association between LE8 and CKD. The population attributable-risk (PAR) was also calculated.

RESULTS

During a median follow-up of 10 y, 1936 CKD cases were documented. A higher LE8 score was associated with a significant lower risk of CKD (P < 0.001), and a linear dose-response relationship was observed. Similar patterns were also found in the associations of the LE8 behavior and biological subscale scores with CKD. Compared with participants with a low CVH category, participants with a moderate CVH were associated with a 39% lower risk of developing CKD (hazard ratio [HR]: 0.61; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.52, 0.72); and those with a high CVH had a 57% lower risk of CKD incidence (HR: 0.43; 95% CI: 0.35, 0.53) after adjustment for covariates. Among 8 distinct metrics of LE8 score, the BMI metric had the highest PAR (24.6%; 95% CI: 18.8, 30.2). Of the total CKD risk, 3.2% (95% CI: 1.4, 5.0) was attributable to inadequate or excessive sleep duration.

CONCLUSIONS

High CVH, defined by LE8, is significantly associated with a lower risk of CKD. These results suggest that promoting optimal cardiovascular health may lower the burden of CKD.

Defining measures of kidney function in observational studies using routine health care data: methodological and reporting considerations

The availability of electronic health records and access to a large number of routine measurements of serum creatinine and urinary albumin enhance the possibilities for epidemiologic research in kidney disease. However, the frequency of health care use and laboratory testing is determined by health status and indication, imposing certain challenges when identifying patients with kidney injury or disease, when using markers of kidney function as covariates, or when evaluating kidney outcomes. Depending on the specific research question, this may influence the interpretation, generalizability, and/or validity of study results. This review illustrates the heterogeneity of working definitions of kidney disease in the scientific literature and discusses advantages and limitations of the most commonly used approaches using 3 examples. We summarize ways to identify and overcome possible biases and conclude by proposing a framework for reporting definitions of exposures and outcomes in studies of kidney disease using routinely collected health care data.

Effectiveness and safety of low-dose versus standard-dose rivaroxaban and apixaban in patients with atrial fibrillation

BACKGROUND

Low-dose direct oral anticoagulant (DOAC) use is quite prevalent in clinical practice, but evidence of its effectiveness and safety compared with high-dose DOAC in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) remains limited. We aimed to assess the effectiveness and safety of low-dose and high-dose DOACs in patients with AF with similar baseline characteristics.

METHODS

We used a cohort of hospitalized patients with a primary or secondary diagnosis of AF after discharge to the community, whose data were stored in the Quebec administrative databases, from 2011 to 2017. Older adults with AF newly prescribed with rivaroxaban (15 or 20 mg) or apixaban (2.5 mg or 5 mg) were classified as under treatment (UT) and intent to treat (ITT). We used an inverse probability treatment weighting study of new users of rivaroxaban and apixaban to address confounding by indication. The primary effectiveness outcome was ischemic stroke/systemic embolism (SE), while the primary safety outcome was major bleeding (MB). We used Cox proportional models to estimate the marginal hazard ratios (HRs).

FINDINGS

A total of 1,722 and 4,639 patients used low-dose and standard-dose rivaroxaban, respectively, while 3,833 and 6,773 patients used low-dose and standard-dose apixaban, respectively. No significant difference was observed in the incidence of comparative stroke/SE and MB between low-dose and standard-dose rivaroxaban, except for the risk of acute myocardial infarction (AMI), which was increased with the low dose in the UT analysis. For apixaban, no difference was found in the bleeding rates, but the risk of stroke/SE (HR: 1.95; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.38-2.76) and death (HR: 1.99; 95% CI: 1.46-2.70) were greater in the low-dose group than in the standard-dose group in the UT analysis. Similar results were observed for the ITT analysis.

CONCLUSION

No significant differences were observed in the effectiveness or safety outcome between low-dose and standard-dose rivaroxaban, except for AMI. However, low-dose apixaban was associated with a greater risk of stroke/SE and death without a reduction in the bleeding rates.

Trends of use and factors that determine the choice of oral anticoagulants in women and men with atrial fibrillation

The aim was to identify sex-specific factors linked with oral anticoagulant initiation in a cohort of patients with atrial fibrillation using administrative data from Quebec (Canada) between 2014 and 2017. Cohort entry defined as new users, that is, no claims in last 12 months, a cohort of 32 050 patients was stratified in two groups, that is, women and men. Multivariable regression models were used to identify factors of initiations for low- and standard-dose direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs) versus warfarin, and low- versus standard-dose DOACs. In both sexes, warfarin initiation decreased and DOAC initiation increased, with year of initiation as major factors of DOACs use. In 2017, the increase was of 2- to 4-fold and 3- to 8-fold for low- and standard-dose DOACs (vs. warfarin), respectively. The proportion of patients starting on a low-dose DOAC was higher in women than men. Older age for both sexes and CHADS2 score ≥2 (only women) were major factors of low-dose dabigatran and rivaroxaban versus warfarin use. The only significant factor of standard-dose DOAC versus warfarin use was age of 65-79 for women or men treated with apixaban by 1.8- and 1.4-fold, respectively. Factors that made women and men less likely to receive a standard-dose DOAC versus warfarin were higher CHADS2 (for dabigatran and rivaroxaban), HAS-BLED and frailty scores, prior coronary disease, major bleeding, and chronic kidney disease (CKD) status. The choice of a low- versus standard-dose DOAC was mainly driven by age and CKD, and higher CHADS2 score (for dabigatran and apixaban) for both sexes.

Evolution of and Evidence-Practice Gaps in Antithrombotic Management of Atrial Fibrillation Patients After Percutaneous Coronary Intervention

Background

The management of atrial fibrillation and flutter (AF) patients undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) has evolved rapidly in the past decade. We determine whether the publication of the 2016 Canadian Cardiovascular Society AF guidelines were associated with a shift in practice patterns.

Methods

Using Quebec provincial administrative database information for the period from 2010-2017, a retrospective cohort of patients with inpatient or outpatient coding for AF, who subsequently underwent PCI with placement of a coronary stent, was created and analyzed for the antithrombotic regimen received in the following year. Prescribing behavior was compared among 3 time periods (2010-2011, 2012-2015, 2016-2017), and use of antithrombotics was compared to guideline-predicted therapy using the χ² test. Predictors of oral anticoagulation (OAC) prescription were identified using adjusted logistic regression.

Results

A total of 3740 AF patients undergoing PCI were included. The proportion of OAC prescription increased over time (2010-2011 = 51.4%; 2012-2015 = 54.3%; 2016-2017 = 56.6%; P = 0.13), with a significant increase in direct OAC prescription (P < 0.01). A substantial treatment gap in OAC prescription persisted after publication of the 2016 guidelines (56.6% observed vs 89.7% predicted; P < 0.01). Previous stroke, CHADS₂ score, Charlson Comorbidity Index ≥ 4, and prior use of direct OAC or warfarin were predictors of being exposed to OAC claims; previous major bleeding, and low-dose acetylsalicylic acid or P2Y12 inhibitor use were predictors of not being exposed to OACs.

Conclusion

Expert guidance contributed to an increase in OAC prescription following PCI, but up to 2017, substantial further changes in practice patterns would have been required to achieve the recommended rates of OAC prescription.

Association of Chronic Kidney Disease With Risk of Intracerebral Hemorrhage

Importance

The evidence linking chronic kidney disease (CKD) to spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) is inconclusive owing to possible confounding by comorbidities that frequently coexist in patients with these 2 diseases.

Objective

To determine whether there is an association between CKD and ICH risk.

Design, Setting, and Participants

A 3-stage study that combined observational and genetic analyses was conducted. First, the association between CKD and ICH risk was tested in the Ethnic/Racial Variations of Intracerebral Hemorrhage (ERICH) study, a multicenter case-control study in the US. All participants with available data on CKD from ERICH were included. Second, this analysis was replicated in the UK Biobank (UKB), an ongoing population study in the UK. All participants in the UKB were included in this study. Third, mendelian randomization analyses were implemented in the UKB using 27 CKD-related genetic variants to test for genetic associations. ERICH was conducted from August 1, 2010, to August 1, 2017, and observed participants for 1 year. The UKB enrolled participants between 2006 and 2010 and will continue to observe them for 30 years. Data analysis was performed from November 11, 2019, to May 10, 2022.

Exposures

CKD stages 1 to 5.

Main Outcomes and Measures

The outcome of interest was ICH, ascertained in ERICH via expert review of neuroimages and in the UKB via a combination of self-reported data and International Statistical Classification of Diseases, Tenth Revision, codes.

Results

In the ERICH study, a total of 2914 participants with ICH and 2954 controls who had available data on CKD were evaluated (mean [SD] age, 61.6 [14.0] years; 2433 female participants [41.5%]; 3435 male participants [58.5%]); CKD was found to be independently associated with higher risk of ICH (odds ratio [OR], 1.95; 95% CI, 1.35-2.89; P < .001). This association was not modified by race and ethnicity. Replication in the UKB with 1341 participants with ICH and 501 195 controls (mean [SD] age, 56.5 [8.1] years; 273 402 female participants [54.4%]; 229 134 male participants [45.6%]) confirmed this association (OR, 1.28; 95% CI, 1.01-1.62; P = .04). Mendelian randomization analyses indicated that genetically determined CKD was associated with ICH risk (OR, 1.56; 95% CI, 1.13-2.16; P = .007).

Conclusions and Relevance

In this 3-stage study that combined observational and genetic analyses among study participants enrolled in 2 large observational studies with different characteristics and study designs, CKD was consistently associated with higher risk of ICH. Mendelian randomization analyses suggest that this association was causal. Further studies are needed to identify the specific biological pathways that mediate this association.

Validation of a Classification Algorithm for Chronic Kidney Disease Based on Health Information Systems

Background: Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a common condition, characterized by high burden of comorbidities, mortality and costs. There is a need for developing and validating algorithm for the diagnosis of CKD based on administrative data. Methods: We validated our previously developed algorithm that used administrative data of the Lazio Region (central Italy) to define the presence of CKD on the basis of serum creatinine measurements performed between 2012 and 2015 at the Policlinico Gemelli Hospital. CKD and advanced CKD were defined according to eGFR (<60 and <30 mL/min/1.73 m2, respectively). Sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values (PPV/NPV) were computed. Results: During the time span of the study, 30,493 adult participants residing in the Lazio Region had undergone at least 2 serum creatinine measurements separated by at least 3 months. CKD and advanced CKD were present in 11.1% and 2.0% of the study population, respectively. The performance of the algorithm in the identification of CKD was high, with a sensitivity of 51.0%, specificity of 96.5%, PPV of 64.5% and NPV of 94.0%. Using advanced CKD, sensitivity was 62.9% (95% CI 59.0, 66.8), specificity 98.1%, PPV 40.4% and NPV 99.3%. Conclusion: The algorithm based on administrative data has high specificity and adequate performance for more advanced CKD; it can be used to obtain estimates of prevalence of CKD and to perform epidemiological research.

Comparative Effectiveness and Safety of Low-Dose Oral Anticoagulants in Patients With Atrial Fibrillation

Aims: Observational studies of various dose levels of direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs) for patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) found that a high proportion of patients received a dose lower than the target dose tested in randomized controlled trials. There is a need to compare low-dose DOACs with warfarin or other DOACs on effectiveness and safety. Methods: Using administrative data from Quebec province, Canada, we built a cohort of new warfarin or DOAC users discharged from hospital between 2011 and 2017. We determined CHA₂DS₂-VASc and HAS-BLED scores, and comorbidities for 3-year prior cohort entry. The primary effectiveness endpoint was a composite of ischemic stroke/systemic embolism (SE), and secondary outcomes included a safety composite of major bleeding (MB) events and effectiveness composite (stroke/SE, death) at 1-year follow-up. We contrasted each low-dose DOAC with warfarin or other DOACs as references using inverse probability of treatment weighting to estimate marginal Cox hazard ratios (HRs). Results: The cohort comprised 22,969 patients (mean age: 80-86). We did not find a significant risk reduction for the stroke/SE primary effectiveness endpoint for DOACs vs. warfarin; however, we observed a significantly lower risk for low-dose dabigatran vs. warfarin (HR [95%CI]: 0.59 [0.42-0.81]) for effectiveness composite, mainly due to a lower death rate. The differences in effectiveness and safety composites between low-dose rivaroxaban vs. warfarin were not significant. However, low-dose apixaban had a better safety composite (HR: 0.68 [0.53-0.88]) vs. warfarin. Comparisons of dabigatran vs. apixaban showed a lower risk of stroke/SE (HR: 0.53 [0.30-0.93]) and a 2-fold higher risk of MB. The MB risk was higher for rivaroxaban than for apixaban (HR: 1.58 [1.09-2.29]). Conclusions: The results of this population-based study suggest that low-dose dabigatran has a better effective composite than warfarin. Compared with apixaban, low-dose dabigatran had a better effectiveness composite but a worse safety profile. Low-dose apixaban had a better safety composite than warfarin and other low-dose DOACs. Given that the comparative effectiveness and safety seem to vary from one DOAC to another, pharmacokinetic data for specific populations are now warranted.

Comparative Effectiveness and Safety of DOAC Versus Warfarin among Obese Patients with Atrial Fibrillation

Background

Obese patients are underrepresented in clinical trials assessing the comparative effectiveness and safety of use of direct oral anticoagulants vs use in atrial fibrillation (AF) patients.

Methods

Using data from Quebec provincial administrative databases, for the years2010-2017, we created a retrospective cohort of patients with inpatient or outpatient coding for AF and obesity who were newly prescribed an oral anticoagulant. The primary safety outcome was a composite of intracranial, gastrointestinal, and major bleeding from other sites, and the primary effectiveness outcome was a composite of ischemic stroke, systemic embolism, acute myocardial infarction, and death in the first year after oral anticoagulant initiation. Treatment groups were compared using inverse-probability-of-treatment-weighting Cox proportional-hazards models.

Results

A total of 2263 patients were included, of whom 1253, 403, and 539 filled a warfarin, standard-dose rivaroxaban, and standard-dose apixaban prescription, respectively. Standard-dose rivaroxaban was associated with a similar composite safety (hazard ratio [HR] 0.91; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.44-1.91) and composite effectiveness risk (HR 1.42; 95% CI 0.99-2.04) compared to warfarin, whereas standard-dose apixaban was associated with a lower composite safety (HR 0.40; 95% CI 0.16-0.98) and similar composite effectiveness risk (HR 0.96; 95% CI 0.67-1.39).

Conclusion

Use of direct oral anticoagulants in obese AF patients was associated with a similar effectiveness and safety profile to that of warfarin use.

Predicting major bleeding among hospitalized patients using oral anticoagulants for atrial fibrillation after discharge

Aim

Real-world predictors of major bleeding (MB) have been well-studied among warfarin users, but not among all direct oral anticoagulant (DOAC) users diagnosed with atrial fibrillation (AF). Thus, our goal was to build a predictive model of MB for new users of all oral anticoagulants (OAC) with AF.

Methods

We identified patients hospitalized for any cause and discharged alive in the community from 2011 to 2017 with a primary or secondary diagnosis of AF in Quebec’s RAMQ and Med-Echo administrative databases. Cohort entry occurred at the first OAC claim. Patients were categorized according to OAC type. Outcomes were incident MB, gastrointestinal bleeding (GIB), non-GI extracranial bleeding (NGIB) and intracranial bleeding within 1 year of follow-up. Covariates included age, sex, co-morbidities (within 3 years before cohort entry) and medication use (within 2 weeks before cohort entry). We used logistic-LASSO and adaptive logistic-LASSO regressions to identify MB predictors among OAC users. Discrimination and calibration were assessed for each model and a global model was selected. Subgroup analyses were performed for MB subtypes and OAC types.

Results

Our cohort consisted of 14,741 warfarin, 3,722 dabigatran, 6,722 rivaroxaban and 11,196 apixaban users aged 70–86 years old. The important MB predictors were age, prior MB and liver disease with ORs ranging from 1.37–1.64. The final model had a c-statistic of 0.63 (95% CI 0.60–0.65) with adequate calibration. The GIB and NGIB models had similar c-statistics of 0.65 (95% CI 0.63–0.66) and 0.67 (95% CI 0.64–0.70), respectively.

Conclusions

MB and MB subtype predictors were similar among DOAC and warfarin users. The predictors selected by our models and their discriminative potential are concordant with published data. Thus, these models can be useful tools for future pharmacoepidemiologic studies involving older oral anticoagulant users with AF.

Comparative effectiveness and safety of high-dose rivaroxaban and apixaban for atrial fibrillation: A propensity score-matched cohort study

STUDY OBJECTIVE

Observational studies assessing direct oral anticoagulant (DOACs) dosage in atrial fibrillation (AF) reported that a lower proportion of patients received high-dose DOACs compared to those in randomized controlled trials (RCTs). Effectiveness and safety of high-dose DOACs relative to apixaban in a real-world AF population need to be addressed. The aim is to assess comparative effectiveness and safety of high-dose rivaroxaban relative to apixaban.

DESIGN

We conducted a cohort study. Setting We built a cohort of patients hospitalized and discharged in community with a primary or secondary AF diagnosis from 2011-2017 using Quebec administrative databases (Med-Echo and RAMQ). Patients Cohort entry was defined as the first OAC claim in new users of high-dose rivaroxaban and apixaban, with no OAC claims in the prior year. Intervention To compare effectiveness and safety of high-dose rivaroxaban to apixaban. Measurement We ascertained patient demographics, comorbidities, CHA2DS2-VASc and HASBLED scores and Charlson score within 3 years prior to cohort entry. Primary effectiveness and safety were a composite of ischemic stroke/systemic thrombosis, death, myocardial infarction, and of intracranial bleeding (ICH), extracranial major bleeding, in the first year following drug initiation. We conducted propensity score matching and estimated hazard ratios (HRs) for outcomes using Cox proportional hazard models. All the analyses were conducted to account for competing risks. Main results The cohort consisted of 4,632 and 6,771 patients received high-dose rivaroxaban and apixaban, respectively. High-dose rivaroxaban users were younger with a mean age of 73.2 years, presented less associated comorbidities and had lower CHA2DS2-VASc scores compared to apixaban. High-dose rivaroxaban at the intention to treat was associated with a higher risk of stroke/SE/death (HR 1.21, 95% CI 1.04-1.40) and worse composite effectiveness (HR 1.21: 1.05-1.40); under treatment exposure, those values were at HR (1.66: 1.21-2.29) and HR (1.58:1.19-2.10), respectively. And, rivaroxaban presented a less favorable safety profile relative to apixaban. Conclusion In this study, composite effectiveness and safety varied between rivaroxaban and apixaban. High-dose apixaban was observed to have a better effectiveness and safety.