Understanding the relationship between costs and the modified Rankin Scale: A systematic review, multidisciplinary consensus and recommendations for future studies

Protocol for a feasibility registry-based randomised controlled trial investigating a tailored follow-up service for stroke (A-LISTS)

BACKGROUND

Stroke affects long-term physical and cognitive function; many survivors report unmet health needs, such as pain or depression. A hospital-led follow-up service designed to address ongoing health problems may avoid unplanned readmissions and improve quality of life.

METHODS

This paper outlines the protocol for a registry-based, randomised controlled trial with allocation concealment of participants and outcome assessors. Based on an intention-to-treat analysis, we will evaluate the feasibility, acceptability, potential effectiveness and cost implications of a new tailored, codesigned, hospital-led follow-up service for people within 6-12 months of stroke. Participants (n = 100) from the Australian Stroke Clinical Registry who report extreme health problems on the EuroQol EQ-5D-3L survey between 90 and 180 days after stroke will be randomly assigned (1:1) to intervention (follow-up service) or control (usual care) groups. All participants will be independently assessed at baseline and 12-14-week post-randomisation. Primary outcomes for feasibility are the proportion of participants completing the trial and for intervention participants the proportion that received follow-up services. Acceptability is satisfaction of clinicians and participants involved in the intervention. Secondary outcomes include effectiveness: change in extreme health problems (EQ-5D-3L), unmet needs (Longer-term Unmet Needs questionnaire), unplanned presentations and hospital readmission, functional independence (modified Rankin Scale) and cost implications estimated from self-reported health service utilisation and productivity (e.g. workforce participation). To inform future research or implementation, the design contains a process evaluation including clinical protocol fidelity and an economic evaluation.

DISCUSSION

The results of this study will provide improved knowledge of service design and implementation barriers and facilitators and associated costs and resource implications to inform a future fully powered effectiveness trial of the intervention.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ACTRN12622001015730pr.

TRIAL SPONSOR

Florey Institute of Neuroscience and Mental Health, 245 Burgundy Street, Heidelberg, VIC, 3084, PH: +61 3 9035 7032.

Endovascular thrombectomy in young patients with stroke

BACKGROUND

Endovascular treatment (ET) is standard of care in patients with acute ischemic stroke due to large vessel occlusion, but data on ET in young patients remain limited.

AIM

We aim to compare outcomes for young stroke patients undergoing ET in a matched cohort.

METHODS

We analyzed patients from an observational multicenter cohort with acute ischemic stroke and ET, the German Stroke Registry-Endovascular Treatment trial. Baseline characteristics, procedural parameters, and functional outcome at 90 days were compared between young (<50 years) and older (⩾50 years) patients with and without nearest-neighbor 1:1 propensity score matching.

RESULTS

Out of 6628 acute ischemic stroke patients treated with ET, 363 (5.5%) were young. Young patients differed with regard to prognostic outcome characteristics. Specifically, National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) at admission was lower (median 13, interquartile range (IQR) 8-17 vs. 15, IQR 9-19, p < 0.001), and prestroke dependence was less frequent (2.9% vs. 12.2%, p < 0.001) than in older patients. Compared to a matched cohort of older patients, ET was faster (time from groin puncture to flow restoration, 35 vs. 45 min, p < 0.001) and intracranial hemorrhage was less frequent in young patients (10.0% vs. 25.9%, p < 0.001). Good functional outcome (modified Rankin Scale (mRS) 0-2) at 3 months was achieved more frequently in young patients (71.6% vs. 44.1%, p < 0.001), and overall mortality was lower (6.7% vs. 25.4%, p < 0.001). Among previously employed young patients (n = 177), 37.9% returned to work at 3-month follow-up, while 74.1% of the remaining patients were still undergoing rehabilitation.

CONCLUSION

Young stroke patients undergoing ET have better outcomes compared to older patients, even when matched for prestroke condition, comorbidities, and stroke severity. Hence, more liberal guidelines to perform ET for younger patients may have to be established by future studies.

Repeated Measures of Modified Rankin Scale Scores to Assess Functional Recovery From Stroke: AFFINITY Study Findings

Background

Function after acute stroke using the modified Rankin Scale (mRS) is usually assessed at a point in time. The analytical implications of serial mRS measurements to evaluate functional recovery over time is not completely understood. We compare repeated‐measures and single‐measure analyses of the mRS from a randomized clinical trial.

Methods and Results

Serial mRS data from AFFINITY (Assessment of Fluoxetine in Stroke Recovery), a double‐blind placebo randomized clinical trial of fluoxetine following stroke (n=1280) were analyzed to identify demographic and clinical associations with functional recovery (reduction in mRS) over 12 months. Associations were identified using single‐measure (day 365) and repeated‐measures (days 28, 90, 180, and 365) partial proportional odds logistic regression. Ninety‐five percent of participants experienced a reduction in mRS after 12 months. Functional recovery was associated with age at stroke <70 years; no prestroke history of diabetes, coronary heart disease, or ischemic stroke; prestroke history of depression, a relationship partner, living with others, independence, or paid employment; no fluoxetine intervention; ischemic stroke (compared with hemorrhagic); stroke treatment in Vietnam (compared with Australia or New Zealand); longer time since current stroke; and lower baseline National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale & Patient Health Questionnaire‐9 scores. Direction of associations was largely concordant between single‐measure and repeated‐measures models. Association strength and variance was generally smaller in the repeated‐measures model compared with the single‐measure model.

Conclusions

Repeated‐measures may improve trial precision in identifying trial associations and effects. Further repeated‐measures stroke analyses are required to prove methodological value.

Registration

URL: http://www.anzctr.org.au; Unique identifier: ACTRN12611000774921.

From Three-Months to Five-Years: Sustaining Long-Term Benefits of Endovascular Therapy for Ischemic Stroke

Background and Purpose: During the months and years post-stroke, treatment benefits from endovascular therapy (EVT) may be magnified by disability-related differences in morbidity/mortality or may be eroded by recurrent strokes and non-stroke-related disability/mortality. Understanding the extent to which EVT benefits may be sustained at 5 years, and the factors influencing this outcome, may help us better promote the sustenance of EVT benefits until 5 years post-stroke and beyond.

Methods: In this review, undertaken 5 years after EVT became the standard of care, we searched PubMed and EMBASE to examine the current state of the literature on 5-year post-stroke outcomes, with particular attention to modifiable factors that influence outcomes between 3 months and 5 years post-EVT.

Results: Prospective cohorts and follow-up data from EVT trials indicate that 3-month EVT benefits will likely translate into lower 5-year disability, mortality, institutionalization, and care costs and higher quality of life. However, these group-level data by no means guarantee maintenance of 3-month benefits for individual patients. We identify factors and associated “action items” for stroke teams/systems at three specific levels (medical care, individual psychosocioeconomic, and larger societal/environmental levels) that influence the long-term EVT outcome of a patient. Medical action items include optimizing stroke rehabilitation, clinical follow-up, secondary stroke prevention, infection prevention/control, and post-stroke depression care. Psychosocioeconomic aspects include addressing access to primary care, specialist clinics, and rehabilitation; affordability of healthy lifestyle choices and preventative therapies; and optimization of family/social support and return-to-work options. High-level societal efforts include improving accessibility of public/private spaces and transportation, empowering/engaging persons with disability in society, and investing in treatments/technologies to mitigate consequences of post-stroke disability.

Conclusions: In the longtime horizon from 3 months to 5 years, several factors in the medical and societal spheres could negate EVT benefits. However, many factors can be leveraged to preserve or magnify treatment benefits, with opportunities to share responsibility with widening circles of care around the patient.

Mechanical thrombectomy is efficacious in patients with pre-stroke moderate disability

INTRODUCTION

Patients with ischaemic stroke due to large vessel occlusion (LVO) can be treated successfully with mechanical thrombectomy (MT) and/or intravenous thrombolysis. In the landmark trials, MT was only performed for those with no functional disability prior to stroke (mRS 0-2). There are limited data available regarding clinical outcomes for patients with pre-stroke moderate disability (mRS ≥ 3). The aims of this study were to analyse the clinical outcomes and financial implications in regard to accommodation costs of performing MT in patients with pre-stroke mRS = 3.

METHODS

An observational cohort study was performed of 802 patients with anterior circulation LVO ischaemic stroke who underwent MT between October 2016 and January 2020 at three tertiary hospitals. Patient demographics, premorbid mRS, stroke and interventional data, 90-day mRS and accommodation situation were recorded.

RESULTS

Eighty-two patients with anterior circulation LVO ischaemic stroke were pre-stroke mRS 3. 38% had a good clinical outcome, as defined by mRS 3 at 90 days. Mortality rate was 38%. The majority of patients presented from home (83%) and greater than one third of those returned home during the 90 days post treatment. 81% of patients had no increase in accommodation cost at 90 days.

CONCLUSION

Patients with pre-stroke moderate disability may benefit from MT if they are appropriately selected. This may result in fewer patients requiring nursing home placement and less financial burden on the public health system, indicating significant savings are possible.

Challenges of Outcome Prediction for Acute Stroke Treatment Decisions

Physicians often base their decisions to offer acute stroke therapies to patients around the question of whether the patient will benefit from treatment. This has led to a plethora of attempts at accurate outcome prediction for acute ischemic stroke treatment, which have evolved in complexity over the years. In theory, physicians could eventually use such models to make a prediction about the treatment outcome for a given patient by plugging in a combination of demographic, clinical, laboratory, and imaging variables. In this article, we highlight the importance of considering the limits and nuances of outcome prediction models and their applicability in the clinical setting. From the clinical perspective of decision-making about acute treatment, we argue that it is important to consider 4 main questions about a given prediction model: (1) what outcome is being predicted, (2) what patients contributed to the model, (3) what variables are in the model (considering their quantifiability, knowability at the time of decision-making, and modifiability), and (4) what is the intended purpose of the model? We discuss relevant aspects of these questions, accompanied by clinically relevant examples. By acknowledging the limits of outcome prediction for acute stroke therapies, we can incorporate them into our decision-making more meaningfully, critically examining their contents, outcomes, and intentions before heeding their predictions. By rigorously identifying and optimizing modifiable variables in such models, we can be empowered rather than paralyzed by them.

Toward a more inclusive paradigm: thrombectomy for stroke patients with pre-existing disabilities

BACKGROUND

Persons with pre-existing disabilities represent over one-third of acute stroke presentations, but account for a far smaller proportion of those receiving endovascular thrombectomy (EVT) and thrombolysis. This is despite existing ethical, economic, legal, and social directives to maximize equity for this vulnerable population. We sought to determine associations between baseline modified Rankin Scale (mRS) and outcomes after EVT.

METHODS

Individuals who underwent EVT were identified from a prospectively maintained database. Demographics, medical history, presentations, treatments, and outcomes were recorded. Baseline disability was defined as baseline mRS≥2. Accumulated disability was defined as the delta between baseline mRS and absolute 90-day mRS.

RESULTS

Of 381 individuals, 49 had baseline disability (five with mRS=4, 23 mRS=3, 21 mRS=2). Those with baseline disability were older (81 vs 68 years, P<0.0001), more likely female (65% vs 49%, P=0.032), had more coronary disease (39% vs 20%, P=0.006), stroke/TIA history (35% vs 15%, P=0.002), and higher NIH Stroke Scale (19 vs 16, P=0.001). Baseline mRS was associated with absolute 90-day mRS ≤2 (OR=0.509, 95%CI=0.370-0.700). However, baseline mRS bore no association with accumulated disability by delta mRS ≤0 (ie, return to baseline, OR=1.247, 95%CI=0.943-1.648), delta mRS ≤1 (OR=1.149, 95%CI=0.906-1.458), delta mRS ≤2 (OR 1.097, 95% CI 0.869-1.386), TICI 2b-3 reperfusion (OR=0.914, 95%CI=0.712-1.173), final infarct size (P=0.853, β=-0.014), or intracerebral hemorrhage (OR=0.521, 95%CI=0.244-1.112).

CONCLUSIONS

While baseline mRS was associated with absolute 90-day disability, there was no association with accumulated disability or other outcomes. Patients with baseline disability should not be routinely excluded from EVT based on baseline mRS alone.

Weights for ordinal analyses of the modified Rankin Scale in stroke trials: A population-based cohort study

BACKGROUND

Ordinal/shift analyses of ordered measures like the modified Rankin Scale(mRS) are underused as primary trial outcomes for neurological disorders - despite statistical advantages - potentially hindered by poor clinical interpretability versus dichotomies, and by valuing state-transitions equally (linear scale). Weighted ordinal analyses incorporating step-changes at key transitions might have greater statistical validity and clinical applicability.

METHODS

In a prospective population-based cohort of ischaemic stroke (Oxford Vascular Study, recruited 2002-2014), we stratified 5-year outcomes of death, dementia, and/or institutionalization, health/social-care costs, and EuroQol-derived quality-adjusted life-expectancy(QALE) by 3-month mRS. We compared root-mean-square errors(RMSEs) from linear regressions for these outcomes with the mRS coded as a linear scale versus incorporating a spline at transitions 1-2, 2-3, or 3-4. We derived 3-month mRS weights for probability of 5-year death/dementia/institutionalization using age/sex-adjusted logistic regressions, and cost and QALE weights from 1000-bootstraps. We applied these weights to analyse recent trials of thrombectomy for acute ischaemic stroke.

FINDINGS

Among 1,607 patients, a non-linear (S-shaped) relationship was observed between 3-month mRS and each 5-year outcome, with RMSEs 18-73% lower using a spline at mRS 2-3 versus a linear representation. Age/sex-adjusted probability weights for 5-year death/dementia/institutionalization were: mRS 0=0.19; 1=0.27; 2=0.41; 3=0.73; 4=0.77; 5=0.94 (mRS 6=1 by definition). Similar trends were seen with costs; estimated 5-year QALEs were: mRS 0=3.88; 1=3.49; 2=3.01; 3=1.87; 4=1.30; 5=0.06; 6=0. Results were similar stratifying by age/sex, and excluding pre-morbidly disabled patients. Using a weighted ordinal approach, estimates of thrombectomy impact were more favourable than estimates with dichotomous approaches, 5-year cost reductions being 29% higher than with 0-2/3-6, and over three-fold higher than with 0-1/2-6 dichotomy.

INTERPRETATION

Our findings favour weighting the mRS in ordinal analyses for stroke and other neurological disorders, as state-transitions differ in clinical prognosis, quality-of-life, and costs. These weights could also be used for prognostication and cost-effectiveness analyses.

FUNDING

Wellcome Trust, Wolfson Foundation, NIHR Oxford Biomedical Research Centre, Rhodes Trust.

Improving economic evaluations in stroke: A report from the ESO Health Economics Working Group

INTRODUCTION

Approaches to economic evaluations of stroke therapies are varied and inconsistently described. An objective of the European Stroke Organisation (ESO) Health Economics Working Group is to standardise and improve the economic evaluations of interventions for stroke.

METHODS

The ESO Health Economics Working Group and additional experts were contacted to develop a protocol and a guidance document for data collection for economic evaluations of stroke therapies. A modified Delphi approach, including a survey and consensus processes, was used to agree on content. We also asked the participants about resources that could be shared to improve economic evaluations of interventions for stroke.

RESULTS

Of 28 experts invited, 16 (57%) completed the initial survey, with representation from universities, government, and industry. More than half of the survey respondents endorsed 13 specific items to include in a standard resource use questionnaire. Preferred functional/quality of life outcome measures to use for economic evaluations were the modified Rankin Scale (14 respondents, 88%) and the EQ-5D instrument (11 respondents, 69%). Of the 12 respondents who had access to data used in economic evaluations, 10 (83%) indicated a willingness to share data. A protocol template and a guidance document for data collection were developed and are presented in this article.

CONCLUSION

The protocol template and guidance document for data collection will support a more standardised and transparent approach for economic evaluations of stroke care.

Three-month modified Rankin Scale as a determinant of 5-year cumulative costs after ischemic stroke

Objective

Stroke is a devastating and costly disease; however, there is a paucity of information on long-term costs and on how they differ according to 3-month modified Rankin scale (mRS) score, which is a primary outcome variable in acute stroke intervention trials.

Methods

We analyzed a prospective multicenter stroke registry (Clinical Research Collaboration for Stroke in Korea) database through linkage with claims data from the National Health Insurance Service with follow-up to December 2016. Healthcare expenditures were converted into daily cost individually, and annual and cumulative costs up to 5 years were estimated and compared according to the 3-month mRS score.

Results

Between January 2011 and November 2013, 11,136 patients were enrolled in the study. The mean age was 68 years, and 58% were men. The median follow-up period was 3.9 years (range 0–5 years). Mean cumulative cost over 5 years was $117,576 (US dollars [USD]); the cost in the first year after stroke was the highest ($38,152 USD), which increased markedly from the cost a year before stroke ($8,718 USD). The mean 5-year cumulative costs differed significantly according to the 3-month mRS score (p < 0.001); the costs for a 3-month mRS score of 0 or 5 were $53,578 and $257,486 USD, respectively. Three-month mRS score was an independent determinant of long-term costs after stroke.

Conclusions

We show that 3-month mRS score plays an important role in the prediction of long-term costs after stroke. Such estimates relating to 3-month mRS categories may be valuable when undertaking health economic evaluations related to stroke care.

Application of neuroendoscopic surgical techniques in the assessment and treatment of cerebral ventricular infection

Cerebral ventricular infection (CVI) is one of the most dangerous complications in neurosurgery because of its high mortality and disability rates. Few studies have examined the application of neuroendoscopic surgical techniques (NESTs) to assess and treat CVI. This multicenter, retrospective study was conducted using clinical data of 32 patients with CVI who were assessed and treated by NESTs in China. The patients included 20 men and 12 women with a mean age of 42.97 years. NESTs were used to obliterate intraventricular debris and pus, fenestrate or incise the intraventricular compartment and reconstruct cerebrospinal fluid circulation, and remove artificial material. Intraventricular irrigation with antibiotic saline was applied after neuroendoscopic surgery (NES). Secondary hydrocephalus was treated by endoscopic third ventriculostomy or a ventriculoperitoneal shunt. Neuroendoscopic findings of CVI were used to classify patients into Grade I (n = 3), Grade II (n = 13), Grade III (n = 10), and Grade IV (n = 6) CVI. The three patients with grade I CVI underwent one NES, the 23 patients with grade II/III CVI underwent two NESs, and patients with grade IV CVI underwent two (n = 3) or three (n = 3) NESs. The imaging features and grades of neuroendoscopy results were positively related to the number of neurosurgical endoscopic procedures. Two patients died of multiple organ failure and the other 30 patients fully recovered. Among the 26 patients with secondary hydrocephalus, 18 received ventriculoperitoneal shunt and 8 underwent endoscopic third ventriculostomy. There were no recurrences of CVI during the 6- to 76-month follow-up after NES. Application of NESTs is an innovative method to assess and treat CVI, and its neuroendoscopic classification provides an objective, comprehensive assessment of CVI. The study trial was approved by the Institutional Review Board of Beijing Shijitan Hospital, Capital Medical University, China.

National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale, modified Rankin Scale, and modified Thrombolysis in Cerebral Infarction as autonomy predictive tools for stroke patients

Whereas mortality from ischemic stroke is decreasing in all age groups, the prevalence of stroke continues to increase. Its increasing incidence in the younger population adds to the large number of survivors who will live many years with their disabilities related to stroke. Thus, the objectives of this study are to determine the National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS), the modified Rankin Scale (mRS), and the modified Thrombolysis in Cerebral Infarction (mTICI) as adequate prognostic functionality tools for stroke patients and to analyze the relation between stroke and rehabilitation. This study involved a systematic review. We obtained articles found on Google Scholar and MEDLINE and published from January 2008 to May 2018. The functionality of the patient after a stroke is associated with the likelihood of a hospital readmission, which should be taken into account during the diagnosis. Patients with poor functionality at discharge are also more likely to need long-term care and intensive rehabilitation plans. The severity of the initial stroke is a primary determinant of the clinical outcome. The NIHSS, mRS, and mTICI appear to be predictive tools of the functionality of the patient with ischemic stroke, especially in the acute phase. Rehabilitation demonstrates better results in reducing disability and greater participation of affected people.

Clinical Outcome after Thrombectomy in Patients with Stroke with Premorbid Modified Rankin Scale Scores of 3 and 4: A Cohort Study with 136 Patients

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

We aimed to analyze the clinical outcome after mechanical thrombectomy in patients with premorbid mRS 3 and 4 because there are currently no data on this patient group.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Between January 2009 and November 2017, all patients with premorbid mRS 3 or 4 undergoing mechanical thrombectomy due to anterior circulation stroke were selected. Good outcome was defined as a clinical recovery to the status before stroke onset (ie, equal premorbid mRS and mRS at 90 days). In addition, mortality at discharge and at 90 days was analyzed.

RESULTS

One hundred thirty-six patients were included, of whom 81.6% presented with premorbid mRS 3; and 18.4%, with premorbid mRS 4; 24.0% of patients with premorbid mRS 4 achieved clinical recovery compared with 20.7% of patients with premorbid mRS 3 (P = .788). However, the proportion of hospital mortality and mortality at 90 days was nonsignificant, but markedly higher in patients with premorbid mRS 4. Multivariate analysis identified low NIHSS scores (OR, 0.92; 95% CI, 0.85-0.99; P = .040), high ASPECTS (OR, 1.45; 95% CI, 1.02-2.16; P = .049), and TICI 2b-3 (OR, 7.11; 95% CI, 1.73-49.90; P = .017) as independent predictors of good outcome.

CONCLUSIONS

Good outcome in patients with premorbid mRS 3 and 4 is less frequent compared with premorbid mRS 0-2. Nevertheless, about 20% of the patients return to their premorbid mRS, which may justify endovascular treatment. The most important predictor of good outcome is successful recanalization.

Long-term health-related quality of life, survival and costs by different levels of functional outcome six months after stroke

INTRODUCTION

Information about the impact of functional outcome after stroke is currently missing on health-related quality of life, survival and costs. This information would be valuable for health economic evaluations and for allocation of resources in stroke health care.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Data on 297 Swedish patients included in the Third International Stroke Trial were analysed including functional outcome at six months (measured by Oxford Handicap Scale), health-related quality of life up to 18 months (EQ-5D-3L) and survival up to 36 months. We used record linkage to collect data on costs up to 36 months, using national patient registers.

RESULTS

Patients with a better functional outcome level at six months had a significantly better health-related quality of life at 18 months (p < 0.05), better long-term survival (p < 0.05) and lower costs (p < 0.001), for all time points up to 36 months. The difference in costs was mainly due to differences in days spent in hospital (p < 0.005).

DISCUSSION

This study showed an association between functional outcome at six months and health-related quality of life up to 18 months, and costs up to 36 months.

CONCLUSION

Functional outcome six months after stroke is an important determinant of health-related quality of life, survival and costs over 36 months. Effective interventions aimed at reducing short-term disability levels are therefore also expected to reduce the overall burden of stroke.

Statistical analysis plan for the 'Tranexamic acid for hyperacute primary IntraCerebral Haemorrhage' (TICH-2) trial

RATIONALE

Aside from blood pressure lowering, treatment options for intracerebral haemorrhage remain limited and a proportion of patients will undergo early haematoma expansion with resultant significant morbidity and mortality. Tranexamic acid (TXA), an anti-fibrinolytic drug, has been shown to significantly reduce mortality in patients, who are bleeding following trauma, when given rapidly. TICH-2 is testing whether TXA is effective at improving outcome in spontaneous intracerebral haemorrhage (SICH).

METHODS AND DESIGN

TICH-2 is a pragmatic, phase III, prospective, double-blind, randomised placebo-controlled trial. Two thousand adult (aged ≥ 18 years) patients with an acute SICH, within 8 h of stroke onset, will be randomised to receive TXA or the placebo control. The primary outcome is ordinal shift of modified Rankin Scale score at day 90. Analyses will be performed using intention-to-treat.

RESULTS

This paper and its attached appendices describe the statistical analysis plan (SAP) for the trial and were developed and published prior to database lock and unblinding to treatment allocation. The SAP includes details of analyses to be undertaken and unpopulated tables which will be reported in the primary and key secondary publications. The database will be locked in early 2018, ready for publication of the results later in the same year.

DISCUSSION

The SAP details the analyses that will be done to avoid bias arising from prior knowledge of the study findings. The trial will determine whether TXA can improve outcome after SICH, which currently has no definitive therapy.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ISRCTN registry, ID: ISRCTN93732214 . Registered on 17 January 2013.