The expression and evolution of virulence in multiple infections: the role of specificity, relative virulence and relative dose

The parasites of my rival are my friends

The competitive exclusion principle asserts that two species cannot stably coexist in the same habitat. However, the presence of a parasite can facilitate temporary coexistence between two host species occupying the same habitat. Studies of parasite-mediated interspecific competition typically use two host species that are both susceptible to a single parasite species, as it is rare to find a resistant host species that requires a parasite to enable coexistence with a competitively superior susceptible host. We therefore investigated how two host species characterized by different susceptibility profiles affect each other when they coexist in the same habitat, by conducting two long-term mesocosm experiments in the laboratory. We followed populations of Daphnia similis coexisting with Daphnia magna, in either the presence or absence of the microsporidium Hamiltosporidium tvaerminnensis and then the bacterium Pasteuria ramosa. We found that in the absence of parasites, D. magna competitively excluded D. similis within a short period of time. However, in the presence of either parasites, the competitive ability of D. magna decreased dramatically. Our results emphasize the importance of parasites in shaping community structure and composition, by allowing coexistence of a resistant host species that would otherwise become extinct.

Polystyrene nanoplastics differentially influence the outcome of infection by two microparasites of the host Daphnia magna

The accumulation of micro- and nanoplastic particles in freshwater bodies has given rise to much concern regarding their potential adverse effects on aquatic biota. Beyond their known effects on single species, recent experimental evidence suggests that host-parasite interactions can also be affected by environmental concentrations of micro- and nanoplastics. However, investigating the effects of contaminants in simplified infection settings (i.e. one host, one parasite) may understate their ecological relevance, considering that co-infections are common in nature. We exposed the cladoceran Daphnia magna to a fungal parasite of the haemolymph (Metschnikowia bicuspidata) and a gut microsporidium (Ordospora colligata), either in single or co-infection. In addition, Daphnia were raised individually in culture media containing 0, 5 or 50 mg l^-1 of polystyrene nanoplastic beads (100 nm). Only few infections were successful at the higher nanoplastic concentration, due to increased mortality of the host. While no significant effect of the low concentration was detected on the microsporidium, the proportion of hosts infected by the fungal parasite increased dramatically, leading to more frequent co-infections under nanoplastic exposure. These results indicate that nanoplastics can affect the performance of distinct pathogens in diverging ways, with the potential to favour parasite coexistence in a common zooplanktonic host. This article is part of the theme issue 'Infectious disease ecology and evolution in a changing world'.

Out of the 'host' box: extreme off-host conditions alter the infectivity and virulence of a parasitic bacterium

Disease agents play an important role in the ecology and life history of wild and cultivated populations and communities. While most studies focus on the adaptation of parasites to their hosts, the adaptation of free-living parasite stages to their external (off-host) environment may tell us a lot about the factors that shape the distribution of parasites. Pasteuria ramosa is an endoparasitic bacterium of the water flea Daphnia with a wide geographical distribution. Its transmission stages rest outside of the host and thus experience varying environmental regimes. We examined the life history of P. ramosa populations from four environmental conditions (i.e. groups of habitats): the factorial combinations of summer-dry water bodies or not, and winter-freeze water bodies or not. Our goal was to examine how the combination of winter temperature and summer dryness affects the parasite's ability to attach to its host and to infect it. We subjected samples of the four groups of habitats to temperatures of 20, 33, 46 and 60°C in dry and wet conditions, and exposed a susceptible clone of Daphnia magna to the treated spores. We found that spores which had undergone desiccation endured higher temperatures better than spores kept wet, both regarding attachment and subsequent infection. Furthermore, spores treated with heightened temperatures were much less infective and virulent. Even under high temperatures (60°C), exposed spores from all populations were able to attach to the host cuticle, albeit they were unable to establish infection. Our work highlights the sensitivity of a host-free resting stage of a bacterial parasite to the external environment. Long heatwaves and harsh summers, which are becoming more frequent owing to recent climate changes, may therefore pose a problem for parasite survival. This article is part of the theme issue 'Infectious disease ecology and evolution in a changing world'.

Daphnia as a versatile model system in ecology and evolution

Water fleas of the genus Daphnia have been a model system for hundreds of years and is among the best studied ecological model organisms to date. Daphnia are planktonic crustaceans with a cyclic parthenogenetic life-cycle. They have a nearly worldwide distribution, inhabiting standing fresh- and brackish water bodies, from small temporary pools to large lakes. Their predominantly asexual reproduction allows for the study of phenotypes excluding genetic variation, enabling us to separate genetic from non-genetic effects. Daphnia are often used in studies related to ecotoxicology, predator-induced defence, host–parasite interactions, phenotypic plasticity and, increasingly, in evolutionary genomics. The most commonly studied species are Daphnia magna and D. pulex, for which a rapidly increasing number of genetic and genomic tools are available. Here, I review current research topics, where the Daphnia model system plays a critical role.

Sequential infection of Daphnia magna by a gut microsporidium followed by a haemolymph yeast decreases transmission of both parasites

Over the course of seasonal epidemics, populations of susceptible hosts may encounter a wide variety of parasites. Parasite phenology affects the order in which these species encounter their hosts, leading to sequential infections, with potentially strong effects on within-host growth and host population dynamics. Here, the cladoceran Daphnia magna was exposed sequentially to a haemolymph-infecting yeast (Metschnikowia bicuspidata) and a gut microsporidium (Ordospora colligata), with experimental treatments reflecting two possible scenarios of parasite succession. The effects of single and co-exposure were compared on parasite infectivity, spore production and the overall virulence experienced by the host. We show that neither parasite benefited from coinfection; instead, when hosts encountered Ordospora, followed by Metschnikowia, higher levels of host mortality contributed to an overall decrease in the transmission of both parasites. These results showcase an example of sequential infections generating unilateral priority effects, in which antagonistic interactions between parasites can alleviate the intensity of infection and coincide with maladaptive levels of damage inflicted on the host.

Do entomopathogenic nematodes induce immune priming?

Although the study of immune priming in insects is a growing area of research, its occurrence in various biological models has not been evaluated, and its mechanisms are poorly understood. Whether entomopathogenic nematodes (EPNs) can induce immune priming and what role their virulence might play in it has not been assessed. Here, we tested for the first time: 1) whether a nematode is capable of eliciting immune priming, and 2) whether nematode virulence affects immune priming. Host larvae of Tenebrio molitor were first exposed to one of two EPN strains (low or high virulence). They were then exposed again to a challenge (high) dose of their respective strain, and their survival was recorded. Based on current literature, we expected that host larvae primed with a low-virulence strain would not show immune priming but that those exposed to a high-virulence strain would. Instead, we found that host larvae primed with either strain did not exhibit immune priming. Further, the survival of the hosts primed with the highly virulent strain was significantly reduced relative to the control group, and no measurable immune priming was found, as also indicated by resting metabolic rate (production of CO₂). Future research is needed to determine whether virulence-associated bacteria underlie this lowered survival and/or whether another factor, such as immune evasion strategies, is related to these results.

Local adaptation of a parasite to solar radiation impacts disease transmission potential, spore yield, and host fecundity

Environmentally transmitted parasites spend time in the abiotic environment, where they are subjected to a variety of stressors. Learning how they face this challenge is essential if we are to understand how host-parasite interactions may vary across environmental gradients. We used a zooplankton-bacteria host-parasite system where availability of sunlight (solar radiation) influences disease dynamics to look for evidence of parasite local adaptation to sunlight exposure. We also examined how variation in sunlight tolerance among parasite strains impacted host reproduction. Parasite strains collected from clearer lakes (with greater sunlight penetration) were most tolerant of the negative impacts of sunlight exposure, suggesting local adaptation to sunlight conditions. This adaptation came with both a cost and a benefit for parasites: parasite strains from clearer lakes produced relatively fewer transmission stages (spores) but these strains were more infective. After experimental sunlight exposure, the most sunlight-tolerant parasite strains reduced host fecundity just as much as spores that were never exposed to sunlight. Sunlight availability varies greatly among lakes around the world. Our results suggest that the selective pressure sunlight exposure exerts on parasites may impact both parasite and host fitness, potentially driving variation in disease epidemics and host population dynamics across sunlight availability gradients.

Disentangling non-specific and specific transgenerational immune priming components in host-parasite interactions

Exposure to a pathogen primes many organisms to respond faster or more efficiently to subsequent exposures. Such priming can be non-specific or specific, and has been found to extend across generations. Disentangling and quantifying specific and non-specific effects is essential for understanding the genetic epidemiology of a system. By combining a large infection experiment and mathematical modelling, we disentangle different transgenerational effects in the crustacean model Daphnia magna exposed to different strains of the bacterial parasite Pasteuria ramosa. In the experiment, we exposed hosts to a high dose of one of three parasite strains, and subsequently challenged their offspring with multiple doses of the same (homologous) or a different (heterologous) strain. We find that exposure of Daphnia to Pasteuria decreases the susceptibility of their offspring by approximately 50%. This transgenerational protection is not larger for homologous than for heterologous parasite challenges. Methodologically, our work represents an important contribution not only to the analysis of immune priming in ecological systems but also to the experimental assessment of vaccines. We present, for the first time, an inference framework to investigate specific and non-specific effects of immune priming on the susceptibility distribution of hosts—effects that are central to understanding immunity and the effect of vaccines.

Social immunity modulates competition between coinfecting pathogens

Coinfections with multiple pathogens can result in complex within-host dynamics affecting virulence and transmission. While multiple infections are intensively studied in solitary hosts, it is so far unresolved how social host interactions interfere with pathogen competition, and if this depends on coinfection diversity. We studied how the collective disease defences of ants - their social immunity - influence pathogen competition in coinfections of same or different fungal pathogen species. Social immunity reduced virulence for all pathogen combinations, but interfered with spore production only in different-species coinfections. Here, it decreased overall pathogen sporulation success while increasing co-sporulation on individual cadavers and maintaining a higher pathogen diversity at the community level. Mathematical modelling revealed that host sanitary care alone can modulate competitive outcomes between pathogens, giving advantage to fast-germinating, thus less grooming-sensitive ones. Host social interactions can hence modulate infection dynamics in coinfected group members, thereby altering pathogen communities at the host level and population level.

Genetic resistance and specificity in sister taxa of Daphnia: insights from the range of host susceptibilities

BACKGROUND

Host genetic diversity can affect various aspects of host-parasite interactions, including individual-level effects on parasite infectivity, production of transmission stages and virulence, as well as population-level effects that reduce disease spread and prevalence, and buffer against widespread epidemics. However, a key aspect of this diversity, the genetic variation in host susceptibility, has often been neglected in interpreting empirical data and in theoretical studies. Daphnia similis naturally coexists with its competitor Daphnia magna and is more resistant to the endoparasitic microsporidium Hamiltosporidium tvaerminnensis, as suggested by a previous survey of waterbodies, which detected this parasite in D. magna, but not in D. similis. However, under laboratory conditions D. similis was sometimes found to be susceptible. We therefore asked if there is genetic variation for disease trait expression, and if the genetic variation in disease traits in D. similis is different from that of D. magna.

METHODS

We exposed ten clones of D. similis and ten clones of D. magna to three isolates of H. tvaerminnensis, and measured infection rates, parasite-induced host mortality and parasite spore production.

RESULTS

The two Daphnia species differ in the range and variation of their susceptibilities. The parasite produced on average two-fold more spores when growing in D. magna clones than in D. similis clones.

CONCLUSIONS

We confirm that D. similis is indeed much more resistant than D. magna and suggest that this could create a dilution effect in habitats where both species coexist.

Assessment of parasite virulence in a natural population of a planktonic crustacean

Background

Understanding the impact of disease in natural populations requires an understanding of infection risk and the damage that parasites cause to their hosts (= virulence). However, because these disease traits are often studied and quantified under controlled laboratory conditions and with reference to healthy control hosts, we have little knowledge about how they play out in natural conditions. In the Daphnia–Pasteuria host–parasite system, field assessments often show very low estimates of virulence, while controlled laboratory experiments indicate extremely high virulence.

Results

To examine this discrepancy, we sampled Daphnia magna hosts from the field during a parasite epidemic and recorded disease traits over a subsequent 3-week period in the laboratory. As predicted for chronic disease where infections in older (larger) hosts are also, on average, older, we found that larger D. magna females were infected more often, had fewer offspring prior to the onset of castration and showed signs of infection sooner than smaller hosts. Also consistent with laboratory experiments, infected animals were found in both sexes and in all sizes of hosts. Infected females were castrated at capture or became castrated soon after. As most females in the field carried no eggs in their brood pouch at the time of sampling, virulence estimates of infected females relative to uninfected females were low. However, with improved feeding conditions in the laboratory, only uninfected females resumed reproduction, resulting in very high relative virulence estimates.

Conclusions

Overall, our study shows that the disease manifestation of P. ramosa, as expressed under natural conditions, is consistent with what we know from laboratory experiments. However, parasite induced fecundity reduction of infected, relative to uninfected hosts depended strongly on the environmental conditions. We argue that this effect is particularly strong for castrating parasites, because infected hosts have low fecundity under all conditions.

Large and finite sample properties of a maximum-likelihood estimator for multiplicity of infection

Reliable measures of transmission intensities can be incorporated into metrics for monitoring disease-control interventions. Genetic (molecular) measures like multiplicity of infection (MOI) have several advantages compared with traditional measures, e.g., R0. Here, we investigate the properties of a maximum-likelihood approach to estimate MOI and pathogen-lineage frequencies. By verifying regulatory conditions, we prove asymptotical unbiasedness, consistency and efficiency of the estimator. Finite sample properties concerning bias and variance are evaluated over a comprehensive parameter range by a systematic simulation study. Moreover, the estimator's sensitivity to model violations is studied. The estimator performs well for realistic sample sizes and parameter ranges. In particular, the lineage-frequency estimates are almost unbiased independently of sample size. The MOI estimate's bias vanishes with increasing sample size, but might be substantial if sample size is too small. The estimator's variance matrix agrees well with the Cramér-Rao lower bound, even for small sample size. The numerical and analytical results of this study can be used for study design. This is exemplified by a malaria data set from Venezuela. It is shown how the results can be used to determine the necessary sample size to achieve certain performance goals. An implementation of the likelihood method and a simulation algorithm for study design, implemented as an R script, is available as S1 File alongside a documentation (S2 File) and example data (S3 File).

The role of spore morphology in horizontal transmission of a microsporidium of Daphnia

The microsporidian parasite Hamiltosporidium tvaerminnensis can infect Daphnia magna both horizontally (through environmental spores) and vertically (through parthenogenetic and sexually produced eggs). The spores of H. tvaerminnensis come in three distinguishable morphologies, which are thought to have different roles in the transmission of the parasite. In this study, we examined the role of the two most common spore morphologies (i.e. oval-shaped spores and pear-shaped spores) in horizontal transmission of H. tvaerminnensis. To this end, we infected hosts with solutions consisting of either mostly oval- or mostly pear-shaped spores, and quantified infection rates, parasite-induced host mortality and mean number of parasite spores produced per host. We found that spore morphology by itself did not influence infection rates and parasite-induced host mortality. Instead, host clone and parasite isolate interacted with spore morphology in shaping infection outcome and mortality. Thus, there appear to be strong genotype-by-genotype (G × G) interactions in this system. While there is no dispute that H. tvaerminnensis can transmit both vertically and horizontally, our findings do not support theoretical predictions that different spore morphologies hold different roles in horizontal transmission of H. tvaerminnensis.

The virulence-transmission relationship in an obligate killer holds under diverse epidemiological and ecological conditions, but where is the tradeoff?

Parasite virulence is a leading theme in evolutionary biology. Modeling the course of virulence evolution holds the promise of providing practical insights into the management of infectious diseases and the implementation of vaccination strategies. A key element of virulence modeling is a tradeoff between parasite transmission rate and host lifespan. This assumption is crucial for predicting the level of optimal virulence. Here, I test this assumption using the water flea Daphnia magna and its castrating and obligate-killing bacterium Pasteuria ramosa. I found that the virulence-transmission relationship holds under diverse epidemiological and ecological conditions. In particular, parasite genotype, absolute and relative parasite dose, and within-host competition in multiple infections did not significantly affect the observed trend. Interestingly, the relationship between virulence and parasite transmission in this system is best explained by a model that includes a cubic term. Under this relationship, parasite transmission initially peaks and saturates at an intermediate level of virulence, but then it further increases as virulence decreases, surpassing the previous peak. My findings also highlight the problem of using parasite-induced host mortality as a "one-size-fits-all" measure of virulence for horizontally transmitted parasites, without considering the onset and duration of parasite transmission as well as other equally virulent effects of parasites (e.g., host castration). Therefore, mathematical models may be required to predict whether these particular characteristics of horizontally transmitted parasites can direct virulence evolution into directions not envisaged by existing models.

The impact of host sex on the outcome of co-infection

Males and females vary in many characteristics that typically underlie how well a host is able to fight infection, such as body-size, immune capacity, or energy availability. Although well studied in the context of sexual signalling, there is now growing recognition that these differences can influence aspects of pathogen evolution as well. Here we consider how co-infection between multiple pathogen strains is shaped by male-female differences. In natural populations, infections by more than one pathogen strain or species are believed to be a widespread occurrence. Using the water flea, Daphnia magna, we exposed genetically identical males and females to replicated bacterial co-infections. We found that pathogen transmission and virulence were much higher in females. However, males did not simply lower average pathogen fitness, but rather the influence of co-infection was more varied and less defined than in females. We discuss how pathogens may have more fitness benefits to gain, and consequently to lose, when infecting one sex over the other.

Coinfection outcome in an opportunistic pathogen depends on the inter-strain interactions

Background

In nature, organisms are commonly coinfected by two or more parasite strains, which has been shown to influence disease virulence. Yet, the effects of coinfections of environmental opportunistic pathogens on disease outcome are still poorly known, although as host-generalists they are highly likely to participate in coinfections. We asked whether coinfection with conspecific opportunistic strains leads to changes in virulence, and if these changes are associated with bacterial growth or interference competition. We infected zebra fish (Danio rerio) with three geographically and/or temporally distant environmental opportunist Flavobacterium columnare strains in single and in coinfection. Growth of the strains was studied in single and in co-cultures in liquid medium, and interference competition (growth-inhibiting ability) on agar.

Results

The individual strains differed in their virulence, growth and ability for interference competition. Number of coinfecting strains significantly influenced the virulence of infection, with three-strain coinfection differing from the two-strain and single infections. Differences in virulence seemed to associate with the identity of the coinfecting bacterial strains, and their pairwise interactions. This indicates that benefits of competitive ability (production of growth-inhibiting compounds) for virulence are highest when multiple strains co-occur, whereas the high virulence in coinfection may be independent from in vitro bacterial growth.

Conclusions

Intraspecific competition can lead to plastic increase in virulence, likely caused by faster utilization of host resources stimulated by the competitive interactions between the strains. However, disease outcome depends both on the characteristics of individual strains and their interactions. Our results highlight the importance of strain interactions in disease dynamics in environments where various pathogen genotypes co-occur.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12862-017-0922-2) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Trade-offs and mixed infections in an obligate-killing insect pathogen

Natural populations of pathogens are frequently composed of numerous interacting strains. Understanding what maintains this diversity remains a key focus of research in disease ecology. In addition, within-host pathogen dynamics can have a strong impact on both infection outcome and the evolution of pathogen virulence, and thus, understanding the impact of pathogen diversity is important for disease management. We compared eight genetically distinguishable variants from Spodoptera exempta nucleopolyhedrovirus (SpexNPV) isolated from the African armyworm, Spodoptera exempta. NPVs are obligate killers, and the vast majority of transmission stages are not released until after the host has died. The NPV variants differed significantly in their virulence and could be clustered into two groups based on their dose-response curves. They also differed in their speed of kill and productivity (transmission potential) for S. exempta. The mixed-genotype wild-type (WT) SpexNPV, from which each variant was isolated, was significantly more virulent than any individual variant and its mean mortality rate was within the fastest group of individual variants. However, the WT virus produced fewer new infectious stages than any single variant, which might reflect competition among the variants. A survival analysis, combining the mortality and speed of kill data, confirmed the superiority of the genetically mixed WT virus over any single variant. Spodoptera exempta larvae infected with WT SpexNPV were predicted to die 2·7 and 1·9 times faster than insects infected with isolates from either of the two clusters of genotypes. Theory suggests that there are likely to be trade-offs between pathogen fitness traits. Across all larvae, there was a negative linear relationship between virus yield and speed of kill, such that more rapid host death carried the cost of producing fewer transmission stages. We also found a near-significant relationship for the same trend at the intervariant level. However, there was no evidence for a significant relationship between the induced level of mortality and transmission potential (virus yield) or speed of kill.

Multiple-genotype infections and their complex effect on virulence

Multiple infections are common. Although in recent years our understanding of multiple infections has increased significantly, it has also become clear that a diversity of aspects has to be considered to understand the interplay between co-infecting parasite genotypes of the same species and its implications for virulence and epidemiology, resulting in high complexity. Here, we review different interaction mechanisms described for multiple infections ranging from competition to cooperation. We also list factors influencing the interaction between co-infecting parasite genotypes and their influence on virulence. Finally, we emphasise the importance of between-host effects and their evolution for understanding multiple infections and their implications.

Host age modulates within-host parasite competition

In many host populations, one of the most striking differences among hosts is their age. While parasite prevalence differences in relation to host age are well known, little is known on how host age impacts ecological and evolutionary dynamics of diseases. Using two clones of the water flea Daphnia magna and two clones of its bacterial parasite Pasteuria ramosa, we examined how host age at exposure influences within-host parasite competition and virulence. We found that multiply-exposed hosts were more susceptible to infection and suffered higher mortality than singly-exposed hosts. Hosts oldest at exposure were least often infected and vice versa. Furthermore, we found that in young multiply-exposed hosts competition was weak, allowing coexistence and transmission of both parasite clones, whereas in older multiply-exposed hosts competitive exclusion was observed. Thus, age-dependent parasite exposure and host demography (age structure) could together play an important role in mediating parasite evolution. At the individual level, our results demonstrate a previously unnoticed interaction of the host's immune system with host age, suggesting that the specificity of immune function changes as hosts mature. Therefore, evolutionary models of parasite virulence might benefit from incorporating age-dependent epidemiological parameters.

A Population Biology Perspective on the Stepwise Infection Process of the Bacterial Pathogen Pasteuria ramosa in Daphnia

The infection process of many diseases can be divided into series of steps, each one required to successfully complete the parasite's life and transmission cycle. This approach often reveals that the complex phenomenon of infection is composed of a series of more simple mechanisms. Here we demonstrate that a population biology approach, which takes into consideration the natural genetic and environmental variation at each step, can greatly aid our understanding of the evolutionary processes shaping disease traits. We focus in this review on the biology of the bacterial parasite Pasteuria ramosa and its aquatic crustacean host Daphnia, a model system for the evolutionary ecology of infectious disease. Our analysis reveals tremendous differences in the degree to which the environment, host genetics, parasite genetics and their interactions contribute to the expression of disease traits at each of seven different steps. This allows us to predict which steps may respond most readily to selection and which steps are evolutionarily constrained by an absence of variation. We show that the ability of Pasteuria to attach to the host's cuticle (attachment step) stands out as being strongly influenced by the interaction of host and parasite genotypes, but not by environmental factors, making it the prime candidate for coevolutionary interactions. Furthermore, the stepwise approach helps us understanding the evolution of resistance, virulence and host ranges. The population biological approach introduced here is a versatile tool that can be easily transferred to other systems of infectious disease.

The adaptive evolution of virulence: a review of theoretical predictions and empirical tests

Why is it that some parasites cause high levels of host damage (i.e. virulence) whereas others are relatively benign? There are now numerous reviews of virulence evolution in the literature but it is nevertheless still difficult to find a comprehensive treatment of the theory and data on the subject that is easily accessible to non-specialists. Here we attempt to do so by distilling the vast theoretical literature on the topic into a set of relatively few robust predictions. We then provide a comprehensive assessment of the available empirical literature that tests these predictions. Our results show that there have been some notable successes in integrating theory and data but also that theory and empiricism in this field do not ‘speak’ to each other very well. We offer a few suggestions for how the connection between the two might be improved.

Host age modulates parasite infectivity, virulence and reproduction

Host age is one of the most striking differences among hosts within most populations, but there is very little data on how age-dependent effects impact ecological and evolutionary dynamics of both the host and the parasite. Here, we examined the influence of host age (juveniles, young and old adults) at parasite exposure on host susceptibility, fecundity and survival as well as parasite transmission, using two clones of the water flea Daphnia magna and two clones of its bacterial parasite Pasteuria ramosa. Younger D. magna were more susceptible to infection than older ones, regardless of host or parasite clone. Also, younger-infected D. magna became castrated faster than older hosts, but host and parasite clone effects contributed to this trait as well. Furthermore, the early-infected D. magna produced considerably more parasite transmission stages than late-infected ones, while host age at exposure did not affect virulence as it is defined in models (host mortality). When virulence is defined more broadly as the negative effects of infection on host fitness, by integrating the parasitic effects on host fecundity and mortality, then host age at exposure seems to slide along a negative relationship between host and parasite fitness. Thus, the virulence-transmission trade-off differs strongly among age classes, which in turn affects predictions of optimal virulence. Age-dependent effects on host susceptibility, virulence and parasite transmission could pose an important challenge for experimental and theoretical studies of infectious disease dynamics and disease ecology. Our results present a call for a more explicit stage-structured theory for disease, which will incorporate age-dependent epidemiological parameters.

A likelihood approach to estimate the number of co-infections

The number of co-infections of a pathogen (multiplicity of infection or MOI) is a relevant parameter in epidemiology as it relates to transmission intensity. Notably, such quantities can be built into a metric in the context of disease control and prevention. Having applications to malaria in mind, we develop here a maximum-likelihood (ML) framework to estimate the quantities of interest at low computational and no additional costs to study designs or data collection. We show how the ML estimate for the quantities of interest and corresponding confidence-regions are obtained from multiple genetic loci. Assuming specifically that infections are rare and independent events, the number of infections per host follows a conditional Poisson distribution. Under this assumption, we show that a unique ML estimate for the parameter () describing MOI exists which is found by a simple recursion. Moreover, we provide explicit formulas for asymptotic confidence intervals, and show that profile-likelihood-based confidence intervals exist, which are found by a simple two-dimensional recursion. Based on the confidence intervals we provide alternative statistical tests for the MOI parameter. Finally, we illustrate the methods on three malaria data sets. The statistical framework however is not limited to malaria.