Mapping risk of plague in Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, China

Himalayan Marmot (Marmota himalayana) Redistribution to High Latitudes under Climate Change

Climate warming and human activities impact the expansion and contraction of species distribution. The Himalayan marmot (Marmota himalayana) is a unique mammal and an ecosystem engineer in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP). This pest aggravates grassland degradation and is a carrier and transmitter of plagues. Therefore, exploring the future distribution of Himalayan marmots based on climate change and human activities is crucial for ecosystem management, biodiversity conservation, and public health safety. Here, a maximum entropy model was explored to forecast changes in the distribution and centroid migration of the Himalayan marmot in the 2050s and 2070s. The results implied that the human footprint index (72.80%) and altitude (16.40%) were the crucial environmental factors affecting the potential distribution of Himalayan marmots, with moderately covered grassland being the preferred habitat of the Himalayan marmot. Over the next 30-50 years, the area of suitable habitat for the Himalayan marmot will increase slightly and the distribution center will shift towards higher latitudes in the northeastern part of the plateau. These results demonstrate the influence of climate change on Himalayan marmots and provide a theoretical reference for ecological management and plague monitoring.

Serological investigation of plague and brucellosis infection in Marmota himalayana plague foci in the Altun Mountains on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

The Altun Mountains are among the most active regions of Marmota himalayana plague foci of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau where animal plague is prevalent, whereas only three human cases have been found since 1960. Animal husbandry is the main income for the local economy; brucellosis appears sometimes in animals and less often in humans. In this study, a retrospective investigation of plague and brucellosis seroprevalence among humans and animals was conducted to improve prevention and control measures for the two diseases. Animal and human sera were collected for routine surveillance from 2018 to 2021 and screened for plague and brucellosis. Yersinia pestis F1 antibody was preliminarily screened by the colloidal gold method at the monitoring site to identify previous infections with positive serology. Previous plague infection was found in 3.2% (14/432) of the studied human population having close contact with livestock, which indicates evidence of exposure to the Yersinia antigen (dead or live pathogenic materials) in the Altun Mountains. Seroprevalence of brucellosis was higher in camels (6.2%) and sheepdogs (1.8%) than in other livestock such as cattle and sheep, suggesting a possible transmission route from secondary host animals to humans.

Environmental suitability of Yersinia pestis and the spatial dynamics of plague in the Qinghai Lake region, China

Plague, a highly infectious disease caused by Yersinia pestis, has killed millions of people in history and is still active in the natural foci of the world nowadays. Understanding the spatiotemporal patterns of plague outbreaks in history is critically important, as it may help facilitate the prevention and control for potential future outbreaks. This study's objective was to estimate the effect of the topography, vegetation, climate, and other environmental factors on the Y. pestis ecological niche. A maximum entropy algorithm spatially modelled plague occurrence data from 2004-2018 and the environmental variables to evaluate the contribution of the variables to the distribution of Y. pestis. Our results found that the average minimum temperature in September (-8 °C to +5 °C) and the sheep population density (250 sheep per km2) were influential in characterising the niche. The rim of Qinghai Lake showed more favourable conditions for Y. pestis presence than other areas within the study area. Identifying various factors will assist any future modelling efforts. Our suitability map identifies hotspots and will help public health officials in resource allocation in their quest to abate future plague outbreaks.

Spatiotemporal Variations of Plague Risk in the Tibetan Plateau from 1954-2016

Plague persists in the plague natural foci today. Although previous studies have found climate drives plague dynamics, quantitative analysis on animal plague risk under climate change remains understudied. Here, we analyzed plague dynamics in the Tibetan Plateau (TP) which is a climate-sensitive area and one of the most severe animal plague areas in China to disentangle variations in marmot plague enzootic foci, diffusion patterns, and their possible links with climate and anthropogenic factors. Specifically, we developed a time-sharing ecological niche modelling framework to identify finer potential plague territories and their temporal epidemic trends. Models were conducted by assembling animal records and multi-source ecophysiological variables with actual ecological effects (both climatic predictors and landscape factors) and driven by matching plague strains to periods corresponding to meteorological datasets. The models identified abundant animal plague territories over the TP and suggested the spatial patterns varied spatiotemporal dimension across the years, undergoing repeated spreading and contractions. Plague risk increased in the 1980s and 2000s, with the risk area increasing by 17.7 and 55.5 thousand km², respectively. The 1990s and 2010s were decades of decreased risk, with reductions of 71.9 and 39.5 thousand km², respectively. Further factor analysis showed that intrinsic conditions (i.e., elevation, soil, and geochemical landscape) provided fundamental niches. In contrast, climatic conditions, especially precipitation, led to niche differentiation and resulted in varied spatial patterns. Additionally, while increased human interference may temporarily reduce plague risks, there is a strong possibility of recurrence. This study reshaped the plague distribution at multiple time scales in the TP and revealed multifactorial synergistic effects on the spreading and contraction of plague foci, confirming that TP plague is increasingly sensitive to climate change. These findings may facilitate groups to take measures to combat the plague threats and prevent potential future human plague from occurring.

Plague risk in the western United States over seven decades of environmental change

After several pandemics over the last two millennia, the wildlife reservoirs of plague (Yersinia pestis) now persist around the world, including in the western United States. Routine surveillance in this region has generated comprehensive records of human cases and animal seroprevalence, creating a unique opportunity to test how plague reservoirs are responding to environmental change. Here, we test whether animal and human data suggest that plague reservoirs and spillover risk have shifted since 1950. To do so, we develop a new method for detecting the impact of climate change on infectious disease distributions, capable of disentangling long-term trends (signal) and interannual variation in both weather and sampling (noise). We find that plague foci are associated with high-elevation rodent communities, and soil biochemistry may play a key role in the geography of long-term persistence. In addition, we find that human cases are concentrated only in a small subset of endemic areas, and that spillover events are driven by higher rodent species richness (the amplification hypothesis) and climatic anomalies (the trophic cascade hypothesis). Using our detection model, we find that due to the changing climate, rodent communities at high elevations have become more conducive to the establishment of plague reservoirs-with suitability increasing up to 40% in some places-and that spillover risk to humans at mid-elevations has increased as well, although more gradually. These results highlight opportunities for deeper investigation of plague ecology, the value of integrative surveillance for infectious disease geography, and the need for further research into ongoing climate change impacts.

Climate drivers of plague epidemiology in British India, 1898-1949

Plague, caused by Yersinia pestis infection, continues to threaten low- and middle-income countries throughout the world. The complex interactions between rodents and fleas with their respective environments challenge our understanding of human plague epidemiology. Historical long-term datasets of reported plague cases offer a unique opportunity to elucidate the effects of climate on plague outbreaks in detail. Here, we analyse monthly plague deaths and climate data from 25 provinces in British India from 1898 to 1949 to generate insights into the influence of temperature, rainfall and humidity on the occurrence, severity and timing of plague outbreaks. We find that moderate relative humidity levels of between 60% and 80% were strongly associated with outbreaks. Using wavelet analysis, we determine that the nationwide spread of plague was driven by changes in humidity, where, on average, a one-month delay in the onset of rising humidity translated into a one-month delay in the timing of plague outbreaks. This work can inform modern spatio-temporal predictive models for the disease and aid in the development of early-warning strategies for the deployment of prophylactic treatments and other control measures.

Genetic and molecular features for hepadnavirus and plague infections in the Himalayan marmot

The Himalayan marmot (Marmota himalayana), a natural host and transmitter of plague, is also susceptible to the hepadnavirus infection. To reveal the genetic basis of the hepadnavirus susceptibility and the immune response to plague, we systematically characterized the features of immune genes in Himalayan marmot with those of human and mouse. We found that the entire major histocompatibility complex region and the hepatitis B virus pathway genes of the Himalayan marmot were conserved with those of humans. A Trim (tripartite motif) gene cluster involved in immune response and antiviral activity displays dynamic evolution, which is reflected by the duplication of Trim5 and the absence of Trim22 and Trim34. Three key regions of Ntcp, which is critical for hepatitis B virus entry, had high identity among seven species of Marmota. Moreover, we observed a severe alveolar hemorrhage, inflammatory infiltrate in the infected lungs and livers from Himalayan marmots after infection of EV76, a live attenuated Yersinia pestis strain. Lots of immune genes were remarkably up-regulated, which several hub genes Il2rγ, Tra29, and Nlrp7 are placed at the center of the gene network. These findings suggest that Himalayan marmot is a potential animal model for study on the hepadnavirus and plague infection.

Review of Geospatial Technology for Infectious Disease Surveillance: Use Case on COVID-19

This paper discusses on the increasing relevancy of geospatial technologies such as geographic information system (GIS) in the public health domain, particularly for the infectious disease surveillance and modelling strategies. Traditionally, the disease mapping tasks have faced many challenges—(1) authors rarely documented the evidence that were used to create map, (2) before evolution of GIS, many errors aroused in mapping tasks which were expanded extremely at global scales, and (3) there were no fidelity assessment of maps which resulted in inaccurate precision. This study on infectious diseases geo-surveillance is divided into four broad sections with emphasis on handling geographical and temporal issues to help in public health decision-making and planning policies: (1) geospatial mapping of diseases using its spatial and temporal information to understand their behaviour across geography; (2) the citizen’s involvement as volunteers in giving health and disease data to assess the critical situation for disease’s spread and prevention in neighbourhood effect; (3) scientific analysis of health-related behaviour using mathematical epidemiological and geo-statistical approaches with (4) capacity building program. To illustrate each theme, recent case studies are cited and case studies are performed on COVID-19 to demonstrate selected models.

Genomic and molecular characterisation of Escherichia marmotae from wild rodents in Qinghai-Tibet plateau as a potential pathogen

Wildlife is a reservoir of emerging infectious diseases of humans and domestic animals. Marmota himalayana mainly resides 2800-4000 m above sea level in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, and is the primary animal reservoir of plague pathogen Yersinia pestis. Recently we isolated a new species, Escherichia marmotae from the faeces of M. himalayana. In this study we characterised E. marmotae by genomic analysis and in vitro virulence testing to determine its potential as a human pathogen. We sequenced the genomes of the seven E. marmotae strains and found that they contained a plasmid that carried a Shigella-like type III secretion system (T3SS) and their effectors, and shared the same O antigen gene cluster as Shigella dysenterae 8 and E. coli O38. We also showed that E. marmotae was invasive to HEp-2 cells although it was much less invasive than Shigella. Thus E. marmotae is likely to be an invasive pathogen. However, E. marmotae has a truncated IpaA invasin, and lacks the environmental response regulator VirF and the IcsA-actin based intracellular motility, rendering it far less invasive in comparison to Shigella. E. marmotae also carried a diverse set of virulence factors in addition to the T3SS, including an IS1414 encoded enterotoxin gene astA with 37 copies, E. coli virulence genes lifA/efa, cif, and epeA, and the sfp gene cluster, Yersinia T3SS effector yopJ, one Type II secretion system and two Type VI secretion systems. Therefore, E. marmotae is a potential invasive pathogen.

A new subtype of eastern tick-borne encephalitis virus discovered in Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, China

Tick-borne encephalitis virus (TBEV) has been classified into three subtypes, namely the European (Eu-TBEV), Far Eastern (FE-TBEV), and Siberian (Sib-TBEV). In this study, we discovered a new subtype of TBEV in wild rodent Marmota himalayana in Qinghai-Tibet Plateau in China, proposed as subtype Himalayan (Him-TBEV). Two complete genomes of TBEV were obtained from respiratory samples of 200 marmots. The phylogenetic analysis using the E protein and polyprotein demonstrated that the two strains of Him-TBEV formed an independent branch, separated from Eu-TBEV, Sib-TBEV, and FE-TBEV. The nomenclature of Him-TBEV as a new subtype was also supported by comparative analysis using nucleotide and amino acid sequences of E protein and polyprotein. For E protein, The Him-TBEV showed 82.6–84.6% nucleotide identities and 92.7–95.0% amino acid identities with other three subtypes. For polyprotein, the Him-TBEV showed 83.5–85.2% nucleotide identities and 92.6–94.2% amino acids identities with other three subtypes. Furthermore, of 69 amino acid substitutions profiles detected in complete polyprotein of 112 strains of TBEV, Him-TBEV subtype displayed unique amino acids in the 36 positions. Notably, for the subtype-specific amino acid position 206 of E protein, Him-TBEV shared the Val with Eu-TBEV, but differed from FE-TBEV and Sib-TBEV. The evolutionary analysis with BEAST suggested that Him-TBEV diverged from other subtypes of eastern TBEV group about 2469 years ago. It should be mentioned that Qinghai-Tibet Plateau in China is the plague endemic region where Marmota himalayana is the primary host. The public health significance of discovery of Him-TBEV in Marmota himalayana must be carefully evaluated.

Temporal and spatial distribution characteristics in the natural plague foci of Chinese Mongolian gerbils based on spatial autocorrelation

BACKGROUND

The nest flea index of Meriones unguiculatus is a critical indicator for the prevention and control of plague, which can be used not only to detect the spatial and temporal distributions of Meriones unguiculatus, but also to reveal its cluster rule. This research detected the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of the plague natural foci of Mongolian gerbils by body flea index from 2005 to 2014, in order to predict plague outbreaks.

METHODS

Global spatial autocorrelation was used to describe the entire spatial distribution pattern of the body flea index in the natural plague foci of typical Chinese Mongolian gerbils. Cluster and outlier analysis and hot spot analysis were also used to detect the intensity of clusters based on geographic information system methods. The quantity of M. unguiculatus nest fleas in the sentinel surveillance sites from 2005 to 2014 and host density data of the study area from 2005 to 2010 used in this study were provided by Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention.

RESULTS

The epidemic focus regions of the Mongolian gerbils remain the same as the hot spot regions relating to the body flea index. High clustering areas possess a similar pattern as the distribution pattern of the body flea index indicating that the transmission risk of plague is relatively high. In terms of time series, the area of the epidemic focus gradually increased from 2005 to 2007, declined rapidly in 2008 and 2009, and then decreased slowly and began trending towards stability from 2009 to 2014. For the spatial change, the epidemic focus regions began moving northward from the southwest epidemic focus of the Mongolian gerbils from 2005 to 2007, and then moved from north to south in 2007 and 2008.

CONCLUSIONS

The body flea index of Chinese gerbil foci reveals significant spatial and temporal aggregation characteristics through the employing of spatial autocorrelation. The diversity of temporary and spatial distribution is mainly affected by seasonal variation, the human activity and natural factors.

Mapping risk of leptospirosis in China using environmental and socioeconomic data

Background

Leptospirosis is a water-borne and widespread spirochetal zoonosis caused by pathogenic bacteria called leptospires. Human leptospirosis is an important zoonotic infectious disease with frequent outbreaks in recent years in China. Leptospirosis’s emergence has been linked to many environmental and ecological drivers of disease transmission. In this paper, we identified the environmental and socioeconomic factors associated with leptospirosis in China, and predict potential risk area of leptospirosis using predictive models.

Methods

Leptospirosis incidence data were derived from the database of China’s web-based infectious disease reporting system, a national surveillance network maintained by Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention. We built statistical relationship between occurrence of leptospirosis and nine environmental and socioeconomic risk factors using logistic regression model and Maxent model.

Results

Both logistic regression model and Maxent model have high performance in predicting the occurrence of leptospirosis, with AUC value of 0.95 and 0.96, respectively. Annual mean temperature (Bio1) and annual total precipitation (Bio12) are two most important variables governing the geographic distribution of leptospirosis in China. The geographic distributions of areas at risk of leptospirosis predicted from both models show high agreement. The risk areas are located mainly in seven provinces of China: Sichuan Province, Chongqing Municipality, Hunan Province, Jiangxi Province, Guangdong Province, Guangxi Province, and Hainan Province, where surveillance and control programs are urgently needed. Logistic regression model and Maxent model predicted that 403 and 464 counties are at very high risk of leptospirosis, respectively.

Conclusions

Our results highlight the importance of socioeconomic and environmental variables and predictive models in identifying risk areas for leptospirosis in China. The values of Geographic Information System and predictive models were demonstrated for investigating the geographic distribution, estimating socioeconomic and environmental risk factors, and enhancing our understanding of leptospirosis in China.

Niche modeling predictions of the potential distribution of Marmota himalayana, the host animal of plague in Yushu County of Qinghai

BACKGROUND

After the earthquake on 14, April 2010 at Yushu in China, a plague epidemic hosted by Himalayan marmot (Marmota himalayana) became a major public health concern during the reconstruction period. A rapid assessment of the distribution of Himalayan marmot in the area was urgent. The aims of this study were to analyze the relationship between environmental factors and the distribution of burrow systems of the marmot and to predict the distribution of marmots.

METHODS

Two types of marmot burrows (hibernation and temporary) in Yushu County were investigated from June to September in 2011. The location of every burrow was recorded with a global positioning system receiver. An ecological niche model was used to determine the relationship between the burrow occurrence data and environmental variables, such as land surface temperature (LST) in winter and summer, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) in winter and summer, elevation, and soil type. The predictive accuracies of the models were assessed by the area under the curve of the receiving operator curve.

RESULTS

The models for hibernation and temporary burrows both performed well. The contribution orders of the variables were LST in winter and soil type, NDVI in winter and elevation for the hibernation burrow model, and LST in summer, NDVI in summer, soil type and elevation in the temporary burrow model. There were non-linear relationships between the probability of burrow presence and LST, NDVI and elevation. LST of 14 and 23 °C, NDVI of 0.22 and 0.60, and 4100 m were inflection points. A substantially higher probability of burrow presence was observed in swamp soil and dark felty soil than in other soil types. The potential area for hibernation burrows was 5696 km(2) (37.7% of Yushu County), and the area for temporary burrows was 7711 km(2) (51.0% of Yushu County).

CONCLUSIONS

The results suggested that marmots preferred warm areas with relatively low altitudes and good vegetation conditions in Yushu County. Based on these results, the present research is useful in understanding the niche selection and distribution pattern of marmots in this region.

Plague in China 2014-All sporadic case report of pneumonic plague

Background

Yersinia pestis is the pathogen of the plague and caused three pandemics worldwide. Pneumonic plague is rarer than bubonic and septicemic plague. We report detailed clinical and pathogenic data for all the three sporadic cases of pneumonic plagues in China in 2014.

Case presentation

All the three patients are herders in Gansu province of China. They were all infected by Yersinia pestis and displayed in the form of pneumonic plague respectively without related. We tested patient specimens from the upper (nasopharyngeal swabs) or the lower (sputum) respiratory tract and whole blood, plasma, and serum specimens for Yersinia pestis. All patients had fever, cough and dyspnea, and for patient 2 and 3, unconscious. Respiratory symptoms were predominant with acute respiratory failure. The chest X-ray showed signs consistent with necrotizing inflammation with multiple lobar involvements. Despite emergency treatment, all patients died of refractory multiple organ failure within 24 h after admission to hospital. All the contacts were quarantined immediately and there were no secondary cases.

Conclusions

Nowadays, the plague is epidemic in animals and can infect people who contact with the infected animals which may cause an epidemic in human. We think dogs maybe an intermediate vector for plague and as a source of risk for humans who are exposed to pet animals or who work professionally with canines. If a patient has been exposed to a risk factor and has fever and dyspnea, plague should be considered. People who had contact with a confirmed case should be isolated and investigated for F1 antigen analysis and receive post-exposure preventive treatment. A vaccination strategy might be useful for individuals who are occupationally exposed in areas where endemically infected reservoirs of plague-infected small mammals co-exist.