A comparison of parametric models for the investigation of the shape of cognitive change in the older population

A Subtype Perspective on Cognitive Trajectories in Healthy Aging

Cognitive aging is a complex and dynamic process characterized by changes due to genetics and environmental factors, including lifestyle choices and environmental exposure, which contribute to the heterogeneity observed in cognitive outcomes. This heterogeneity is particularly pronounced among older adults, with some individuals maintaining stable cognitive function while others experience complex, non-linear changes, making it difficult to identify meaningful decline accurately. Current research methods range from population-level modeling to individual-specific assessments. In this work, we review these methodologies and propose that population subtyping should be considered as a viable alternative. This approach relies on early individual-specific detection methods that can lead to an improved understanding of changes in individual cognitive trajectories. The improved understanding of cognitive trajectories through population subtyping can lead to the identification of meaningful changes and the determination of timely, effective interventions. This approach can aid in informing policy decisions and in developing targeted interventions that promote cognitive health, ultimately contributing to a more personalized understanding of the aging process within society and reducing the burden on healthcare systems.

Longitudinal trajectories of memory among middle-aged and older people with hearing loss: the influence of cochlear implant use on cognitive functioning

Introduction

Cochlear implants (CI) are the gold standard intervention for severe to profound hearing loss, a known modifiable risk factor for dementia. However, it remains unknown whether CI use might prevent the age-related cognitive decline. Recent studies are encouraging but are limited, mainly by short follow-up periods and, for ethical reasons, lack of appropriate control groups. Further, as age-related cognitive decline is multifaceted and not linear, other statistical approaches have to be evaluated.

Materials and methods

Immediate and delayed recall as measures of cognitive function were assessed in 75 newly implanted CI users (mean age 65.41 years ± 9.19) for up to 5 years (mean 4.5 ± 0.5) of CI use and compared to 8,077 subjects of the same age range from two longitudinal cohort studies, the Health and Retirement Study (HRS) and the English Longitudinal Study of Aging (ELSA). Linear and quadratic changes in cognitive trajectories were analyzed in detail using mixed growth models, considering possible confounders.

Results

For CI users, the linear time slope showed a significant improvement in the specific domains (recall and delayed recall) over time. The quadratic time slope clearly indicated that the predicted change after CI provision followed an inverted U-shape with a predicted decline 2 years after CI provision. In the hearing-impaired group, a significant decline over time was found, with steeper declines early on and the tendency to flatten out in the follow-up.

Conclusion

Cochlear implant use seems to boost cognitive trajectories in the first years after implantation. However, long-term prevention of dementia seems to need far more than restoration of hearing loss.

Population-Based Studies in Dementia and Ageing Research: A Local and National Experience in Cambridgeshire and the UK

Dementia has been recognised as a key challenge in many ageing societies across the world. Several population-based studies have been developed to investigate dementia and cognitive ageing from perspectives of biology, health, psychology and social sciences. However, there is a need to provide a better understanding of 'contexts', the circumstance where these ageing populations existed, and heterogeneity within and across the populations in different time and places. In this article, we summarise some examples of earlier population-based studies undertaken by our research groups in England and Wales and their contribution to the epidemiology of dementia, neuropathology, cognitive and mental health in older age. We also describe how these studies illustrated variation among ageing populations and changes in their health conditions across time and place. These findings highlight the contribution that population-based studies can make, along with the vital to incorporate contexts in ageing research. A lifecourse approach within social context is needed to integrate life experiences, social circumstances, and multiple dimensions of cognition, functioning, physical health and wellbeing over the ageing process. We also discuss how evidence from population-based studies can support various international initiatives on dementia, healthy ageing and Sustainable Development Goals and facilitate tailored approaches for diverse populations across global societies.

Do I lose cognitive function as fast as my twin partner? Analyses based on classes of MMSE trajectories of twins aged 80 and older

BACKGROUND

Aging is associated with an increasing risk of decline in cognitive abilities. The decline is, however, not a homogeneous process. There are substantial differences across individuals although previous investigations have identified individuals with distinct cognitive trajectories. Evidence is accumulating that lifestyle contributes significantly to the classification of individuals into various clusters. How and whether genetically related individuals, like twins, change in a more similar manner is yet not fully understood.

METHODS

In this study, we fitted growth mixture models to Mini Mental State Exam (MMSE) scores from participants of the Swedish OCTO twin study of oldest-old monozygotic and same-sex dizygotic twins with the purpose of investigating whether twin pairs can be assigned to the same class of cognitive change.

RESULTS

We identified four distinct groups (latent classes) whose MMSE trajectories followed different patterns of change over time: two classes of high performing individuals who remained stable and declined slowly, respectively, a group of mildly impaired individuals with a fast decline and a small group of impaired individuals who declined more rapidly. Notably, our analyses show no association between zygosity and class assignment.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study provides evidence for a more substantial impact of environmental, rather than genetic, influences on cognitive change trajectories in later life.

Longitudinal analysis of the impact of loneliness on cognitive function over a 20-year follow-up

Background: Loneliness and cognitive impairment are both commonly experienced by older old people, but evidence for the association between these has been inconsistent. Moreover, most evidence has been cross-sectional in nature and largely based on studies with relatively young later life age groups rather than 'the oldest old'. We aimed to test the potential impact of loneliness amongst older old people on their cognitive function over a 20-year period.Method: Data were drawn from wave 3 to wave 10 of the Cambridge City over-75s Cohort (CC75C) study. The impact of loneliness on transition between normal and impaired cognitive states was examined by multi-state modelling. The associations between loneliness changes and cognitive function decline were tested by using generalized estimating equation (GEE) with an independent working correlation structure. Missing data were imputed by using multiple imputation chained equations.Results: At wave 3, 713 participants were interviewed, of whom 657 (92%) had Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) assessments. Of individuals who had an MMSE score, approximately one quarter reported feeling lonely, and another 16% felt slightly lonely. The prevalence of feeling lonely or slightly lonely varied between waves. Results from multi-state modelling indicated that loneliness was not related to cognitive function transitions, and results from the GEE model showed that loneliness was not significantly associated with cognitive function decline after adjusting for cohort effects, follow-up time, sex, education, and interaction terms for sex, education and time.Conclusions: Loneliness did not exert long-term harmful effects on cognitive function in the oldest old.

Impact of missing data mechanism on the estimate of change: a case study on cognitive function and polypharmacy among older persons

Longitudinal studies typically suffer from incompleteness of data. Attrition is a major problem in studies of older persons since participants may die during the study or are too frail to participate in follow-up examinations. Attrition is typically related to an individual’s health; therefore, ignoring it may lead to too optimistic inferences, for example, about cognitive decline or changes in polypharmacy. The objective of this study is to compare the estimates of level and slope of change in 1) cognitive function and 2) number of drugs in use between the assumptions of ignorable and non-ignorable missingness. This study demonstrates the usefulness of latent variable modeling framework. The results suggest that when the missing data mechanism is not known, it is preferable to conduct analyses both under ignorable and non-ignorable missing data assumptions.

Cognitive effects of statin medications

The demonstrated benefits of 3-hydroxy-3-methylglutaryl coenzyme A (HMG-CoA) reductase inhibitors (statins) for cardiovascular and cerebrovascular disease are well established in the medical literature, and this class of medications is among those most commonly prescribed in the USA. In 2012, the US Food and Drug Administration issued updated recommendations regarding statin medications, and the panel's comments regarding memory impairment fostered clinical confusion (in part because of the lay media's amplification). Cognitive data from several large epidemiological studies have not reliably demonstrated a robust association between incident cognitive impairment and statin use, with some studies reporting a protective effect, some reporting an increased risk and others finding no association. Although several interventional studies have evaluated statins as a possible adjunctive treatment for Alzheimer's disease, none have clearly demonstrated a benefit. A small number of case series have reported infrequent memory difficulties associated with statin use. In these series, the patients' cognitive symptoms resolved after statin discontinuation. The existing medical literature does not suggest that cognitive considerations should play a major role in medical decision making to prescribe statins for the large majority of patients. As with any medication prescribed for older adults, careful clinical monitoring for side effects should be exercised. If a patient is suspected of having idiosyncratic memory impairment associated with use of a statin medication, the drug can be discontinued. The patient should then be followed with careful clinical observation for 1-3 months for resolution of the cognitive symptoms.

[Factors Associated with Cognitive Decline in a Population Less than 65 Years Old. A Systematic Review]

INTRODUCTION

Cognitive decline could begin 20 years before the diagnosis of dementia. Besides age, several factors related to medical, socioeconomic, and behavioral and genetic condition may be associated with cognitive decline. The aim of this systematic review was to summarize evidence on the risk and protective factors for cognitive decline in people under 65 years old.

METHODS

A systematic review was conducted using a search strategy in MEDLINE and Embase, including longitudinal studies to analyze the effect of protective or risk factors on cognitive decline in a population under 65 years old.

RESULTS

A total of 22 studies were included in this review. Factors such as diabetes, hyperinsulinemia, overweight or obesity, metabolic syndrome, education, physical activity, cognitive stimulation, marital status and diet, could be related to cognitive decline before 65 years of age.

CONCLUSIONS

Cardiovascular risk factors and lifestyle conditions may be associated with cognitive decline before 65 years of age. However, the quality of the evidence was low.

Estimating the temporal evolution of Alzheimer's disease pathology with autopsy data

The temporal growth of Alzheimer's disease (AD) neuropathology cannot be easily determined because autopsy data are available only after death. We combined autopsy data from 471 participants in the Honolulu-Asia Aging Study (HAAS) into latent factor measures of neurofibrillary tangle and neuritic plaque counts. These were associated with intercept and slope parameters from a latent growth curve (LGC) model of 9-year change in cognitive test performance in 3244 autopsied and non-autopsied HAAS participants. Change in cognition fully mediated the association between baseline cognitive performance and AD lesions counts. The mediation effect of cognitive change on both AD lesion models effectively dates them within the period of cognitive surveillance. Additional analyses could lead to an improved understanding of lesion propagation in AD.

Analysing cognitive test data: Distributions and non-parametric random effects

An important assumption in many linear mixed models is that the conditional distribution of the response variable is normal. This assumption is violated when the models are fitted to an outcome variable that counts the number of correctly answered questions in a questionnaire. Examples include investigations of cognitive decline where models are fitted to Mini Mental State Examination scores, the most widely used test to measure global cognition. Mini Mental State Examination scores take integer values in the 0–30 range, and its distribution has strong ceiling and floor effects. This article explores alternative distributions for the outcome variable in mixed models fitted to mini mental state examination scores from a longitudinal study of ageing. Model fit improved when a beta-binomial distribution was chosen as the distribution for the response variable.

Delirium is a strong risk factor for dementia in the oldest-old: a population-based cohort study

Recent studies suggest that delirium is associated with risk of dementia and also acceleration of decline in existing dementia. However, previous studies may have been confounded by incomplete ascertainment of cognitive status at baseline. Herein, we used a true population sample to determine if delirium is a risk factor for incident dementia and cognitive decline. We also examined the effect of delirium at the pathological level by determining associations between dementia and neuropathological markers of dementia in patients with and without a history of delirium. The Vantaa 85+ study examined 553 individuals (92% of those eligible) aged ≥85 years at baseline, 3, 5, 8 and 10 years. Brain autopsy was performed in 52%. Fixed and random-effects regression models were used to assess associations between (i) delirium and incident dementia and (ii) decline in Mini-Mental State Examination scores in the whole group. The relationship between dementia and common neuropathological markers (Alzheimer-type, infarcts and Lewy-body) was modelled, stratified by history of delirium. Delirium increased the risk of incident dementia (odds ratio 8.7, 95% confidence interval 2.1-35). Delirium was also associated with worsening dementia severity (odds ratio 3.1, 95% confidence interval 1.5-6.3) as well as deterioration in global function score (odds ratio 2.8, 95% confidence interval 1.4-5.5). In the whole study population, delirium was associated with loss of 1.0 more Mini-Mental State Examination points per year (95% confidence interval 0.11-1.89) than those with no history of delirium. In individuals with dementia and no history of delirium (n = 232), all pathologies were significantly associated with dementia. However, in individuals with delirium and dementia (n = 58), no relationship between dementia and these markers was found. For example, higher Braak stage was associated with dementia when no history of delirium (odds ratio 2.0, 95% confidence interval 1.1-3.5, P = 0.02), but in those with a history of delirium, there was no significant relationship (odds ratio 1.2, 95% confidence interval 0.2-6.7, P = 0.85). This trend for odds ratios to be closer to unity in the delirium and dementia group was observed for neuritic amyloid, apolipoprotein ε status, presence of infarcts, α-synucleinopathy and neuronal loss in substantia nigra. These findings are the first to demonstrate in a true population study that delirium is a strong risk factor for incident dementia and cognitive decline in the oldest-old. However, in this study, the relationship did not appear to be mediated by classical neuropathologies associated with dementia.

Leukocyte CCR2 expression is associated with mini-mental state examination score in older adults

INTRODUCTION

Circulating inflammatory markers may play an important role in cognitive impairment at older ages. Mice deficient for the chemokine (C-C motif) receptor 2 (CCR2) develop an accelerated Alzheimer-like pathology. CCR2 is also important in neurogenesis. To identify human gene transcripts most closely associated with Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) scores, we undertook a genome-wide and inflammation specific transcriptome screen in circulating leukocytes from a population-based sample.

METHODS

We measured in vivo transcript levels by microarray analysis in 691 subjects (mean age 72.6 years) in the InCHIANTI study (Invecchiare in Chianti, aging in the Chianti area). We assessed expression associations with MMSE performance at RNA collection and prior 9-year change in MMSE score in linear regression models.

RESULTS

In genome-wide analysis, raised CCR2 expression was cross-sectionally the most strongly associated transcript with lower MMSE score (beta=-0.16, p=5.1×10(-6), false discovery rate (FDR; q=0.077). Amongst inflammatory transcripts, only CCR2 expression was associated with both MMSE score and accelerated decline in score over the preceding 9 years (beta=-0.16, p=5.1×10(-6), q=0.003; and beta=-0.13, p=5.5×10(-5), q=0.03, respectively). CCR2 expression was also positively associated with apolipoprotein E (ApoE) e4 Alzheimer disease risk haplotype.

CONCLUSIONS

We show for the first time that CCR2 expression is associated with lower MMSE scores in an older human population. Laboratory models of Ccr2-mediated β-amyloid removal and regulation of neurogenesis affecting cognitive function may be applicable in humans. CCR2-mediated pathways may provide a possible focus for intervention to potentiate protective reactions to Alzheimer pathology in older people, including for people with an adverse ApoE haplotype.

Physical activity and Alzheimer disease course

OBJECTIVES

To examine the association between physical activity (PA) and Alzheimer disease (AD) course.

BACKGROUND

PA has been related to lower risk for AD. Whether PA is associated with subsequent AD course has not been investigated.

METHODS

In a population-based study of individuals aged 65 years and older in New York who were prospectively followed up with standard neurologic and neuropsychological evaluations (every ~1.5 years), 357 participants i) were nondemented at baseline and ii) were diagnosed with AD during follow-up (incident AD). PA (sum of participation in a variety of physical activities, weighted by the type of activity [light, moderate, and severe]) obtained 2.4 (standard deviation [SD], 1.9) years before incidence was the main predictor of mortality in Cox models and of cognitive decline in generalized estimating equation models that were adjusted for age, gender, ethnicity, education, comorbidities, and duration between PA evaluation and dementia onset.

RESULTS

One hundred fifty incident AD cases (54%) died during the course of 5.2 (SD, 4.4) years of follow-up. When compared with incident AD cases who were physically inactive, those with some PA had lower mortality risk, whereas incident AD participants with much PA had an even lower risk. Additional adjustments for apolipoprotein genotype, smoking, comorbidity index, and cognitive performance did not change the associations. PA did not affect rates of cognitive or functional decline.

CONCLUSION

Exercise may affect not only risk for AD but also subsequent disease duration: more PA is associated with prolonged survival in AD.

A European perspective on population studies of dementia

The change in the world's age demographics and the predicted rise in the incidence of age-related diseases, including dementia, is a source of major public health concern. Major research effort in both the United States and Europe has been targeted toward understanding the pathogenesis and epidemiology of dementia. This article presents a general overview of the history of dementia research in Europe and how it compares with that in the United States. The review highlights the common issues which both U.S. and European researchers have identified and attempted to tackle. To maximize information gained from studies across the world, better harmonization of methodology is needed, as informed from current research practice.

The impact of attrition on the representativeness of cohort studies of older people

Background

There are well-established risk factors, such as lower education, for attrition of study participants. Consequently, the representativeness of the cohort in a longitudinal study may deteriorate over time. Death is a common form of attrition in cohort studies of older people. The aim of this paper is to examine the effects of death and other forms of attrition on risk factor prevalence in the study cohort and the target population over time.

Methods

Differential associations between a risk factor and death and non-death attrition are considered under various hypothetical conditions. Empirical data from the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health (ALSWH) for participants born in 1921-26 are used to identify associations which occur in practice, and national cross-sectional data from Australian Censuses and National Health Surveys are used to illustrate the evolution of bias over approximately ten years.

Results

The hypothetical situations illustrate how death and other attrition can theoretically affect changes in bias over time. Between 1996 and 2008, 28.4% of ALSWH participants died, 16.5% withdrew and 10.4% were lost to follow up. There were differential associations with various risk factors, for example, non-English speaking country of birth was associated with non-death attrition but not death whereas being underweight (body mass index < 18.5) was associated with death but not other forms of attrition. Compared to national data, underrepresentation of women with non-English speaking country of birth increased from 3.9% to 7.2% and over-representation of current and ex-smoking increased from 2.6% to 5.8%.

Conclusions

Deaths occur in both the target population and study cohort, while other forms of attrition occur only in the study cohort. Therefore non-death attrition may cause greater bias than death in longitudinal studies. However although more than a quarter of the oldest participants in the ALSWH died in the 12 years following recruitment, differences from the national population changed only slightly.

The influence of multiple lifestyle behaviors on cognitive function in older persons living in the community

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to examine the influence of multiple lifestyle behaviors on cognitive function in older persons living in an urban community.

METHOD

A representative sample of 977 persons aged 65 and older in Suwon, Korea were interviewed in 2001, with follow-up interviews completed on 645 (2002) and 537 (2003). Lifestyle behaviors included physical activity, non-smoking, vegetable consumption, and social activity. Individual, as well as, the number and combination of health behavioral profiles were considered. Cognitive function was assessed by the Korean version of the Mini-Mental State Examination. Linear regression with generalized estimating equations was used in the analysis, controlling for sociodemographics and chronic conditions.

RESULTS

All lifestyle behaviors showed independent association with cognitive ability, even after adjusting for the covariates. An incremental benefit of multiple lifestyle behaviors was evident, with those engaging in more positive behaviors exhibiting a tendency to have a higher cognitive score. A two- or three-factor combination of non-smoking, vegetable consumption, and social activity showed the strongest association with cognitive function.

CONCLUSION

Participation in healthy lifestyles may contribute to the maintenance of cognitive function in later life. It underlines the potential benefit of multiple behaviors in promoting cognitive health of older persons.