Municipal mortality due to thyroid cancer in Spain

A Systematic Review of Areal Units and Adjacency Used in Bayesian Spatial and Spatio-Temporal Conditional Autoregressive Models in Health Research

Advancements in Bayesian spatial and spatio-temporal modelling have been observed in recent years. Despite this, there are unresolved issues about the choice of appropriate spatial unit and adjacency matrix in disease mapping. There is limited systematic review evidence on this topic. This review aimed to address these problems. We searched seven databases to find published articles on this topic. A modified quality assessment tool was used to assess the quality of studies. A total of 52 studies were included, of which 26 (50.0%) were on infectious diseases, 10 (19.2%) on chronic diseases, 8 (15.5%) on maternal and child health, and 8 (15.5%) on other health-related outcomes. Only 6 studies reported the reasons for using the specified spatial unit, 8 (15.3%) studies conducted sensitivity analysis for prior selection, and 39 (75%) of the studies used Queen contiguity adjacency. This review highlights existing variation and limitations in the specification of Bayesian spatial and spatio-temporal models used in health research. We found that majority of the studies failed to report the rationale for the choice of spatial units, perform sensitivity analyses on the priors, or evaluate the choice of neighbourhood adjacency, all of which can potentially affect findings in their studies.

Industrial pollution and cancer in Spain: An important public health issue

Cancer can be caused by exposure to air pollution released by industrial facilities. The European Pollutant Release and Transfer Register (E-PRTR) has made it possible to study exposure to industrial pollution. This study seeks to describe the industrial emissions in the vicinity of Spanish towns and their temporal changes, and review our experience studying industrial pollution and cancer. Data on industrial pollutant sources (2007-2010) were obtained from the E-PRTR registries. Population exposure was estimated by the distance from towns to industrial facilities. We calculated the amount of carcinogens emitted into the air in the proximity (<5km) of towns and show them in municipal maps. We summarized the most relevant results and conclusions reported by ecological E-PRTR-based on studies of cancer mortality and industrial pollution in Spain and the limitations and result interpretations of these types of studies. There are high amounts of carcinogen emissions in the proximity of towns in the southwest, east and north of the country and the total amount of emitted carcinogens is considerable (e.g. 20Mt of arsenic, 63Mt of chromium and 9Mt of cadmium). Although the emissions of some carcinogens in the proximity of certain towns were reduced during the study period, emissions of benzene, dioxins+furans and polychlorinated biphenyls rose. Moreover, the average population of towns lying within a 5km radius from emission sources of carcinogens included in the International Agency for Research on Cancer list of carcinogens was 9 million persons. On the other hand, the results of the reviewed studies suggest that those Spanish regions exposed to the pollution released by certain types of industrial facilities have around 17% cancer excess mortality when compared with those unexposed. Moreover, excess mortality is focused on digestive and respiratory tract cancers, leukemias, prostate, breast and ovarian cancers. Despite their limitations, ecological studies are a useful tool in environmental epidemiology, not only for proposing etiological hypotheses about the risk of living close to industrial pollutant sources, but also for providing data to account for situations of higher mortality in specific areas. Nevertheless, the reduction of emissions should be a goal, with special relevance given to establishing limits for known carcinogens and other toxic substances in the environs of population centers, as well as industry-specific emission limits.

The geographical pattern of thyroid cancer mortality between 1980 and 2009 in Italy

BACKGROUND

Mortality for thyroid cancer (TC) is low and has been decreasing worldwide; yet few population studies based on mortality have been conducted. Several nonradiation risk factors have been associated with TC, including residence in goiter-endemic areas (as an indicator of iodine deficiency). We used mortality data to perform a spatial-temporal analysis regarding TC in Italy and investigated the association between mortality and socioeconomic status and geographical features (residing in a mountainous area is a proxy for iodine deficiency).

METHODS

We analyzed data from Italy's National Mortality Database (1980-2009). To evaluate temporal trends in mortality the age-standardized death rate (ASR) was used; to identify geographic areas with excess deaths due to TC standardized mortality rates (SMR) were calculated. We also calculated the rate ratios (RR) of the ASR and the 95% CI by sex. We performed a cluster analysis to identify municipalities with major departures from expected mortality, both in the entire study period and in two separate periods to evaluate the spatial-temporal variability. Finally, we evaluated the association between mortality and index of deprivation and altitude.

RESULTS

There were 16,473 deaths due to TC (10,690 females, 5783 males). The mean ASR was unsurprisingly low (0.58/100.000). There was a trend of decrease in mortality throughout Italy (-42% for 2007-2009 vs. 1980-1984), more pronounced among women. The decrease was greater in the north. Four geographic clusters were identified when considering the entire study period, two in the north and two in the south; however, the clusters in northern Italy refer to the earlier period (1980-1994) and those in southern Italy to the later period (1995-2009). Mortality was associated with residing in a mountainous area. A slight association with high socioeconomic status was found.

CONCLUSIONS

This study reveals space-time differences in TC mortality in Italy. It shows an association between mortality and residing in mountainous areas, which is a proxy of iodine deficiency. The observed temporal north-south shift cannot be explained by socioeconomic differences, whereas the efficient prophylaxis program implemented in the 1980s in some areas of northern Italy can help to explain the disappearance of the clusters in those areas in the period 1995-2009.

Evolution of thyroid cancer mortality in adults in Brazil

OBJECTIVE: To assess the trend of thyroid cancer mortality in Brazil between 1980 and 2010. MATERIALS AND METHODS: An ecological study of time series. Mortality rates for thyroid cancer adjusted by age according to gender were calculated between 1980 and 2010. Data were analyzed by three distinct strategies: polynomial regression, joinpoint analysis, and moving averages. RESULTS: Over 70% of deaths occur in the elderly, regardless of sex. Among young adults, the mortality rate is low, with no difference between men and women. Among mature adults and elderly, mortality is increasing, and significantly, for women. There is a trend of decreasing mortality in all female adults and overall population, and in males and 40-59 years and overall population, both excluding the elderly, with statistical significance. CONCLUSION: Knowledge about trends allows setting priorities and allocating resources toward positive changes in this scenario in the Brazilian population.

Proximity to mining industry and cancer mortality

Mining installations are releasing toxic substances into the environment which could pose a health problem to populations in their vicinity. We sought to investigate whether there might be excess cancer-related mortality in populations residing in towns lying in the vicinity of Spanish mining industries governed by the Integrated Pollution Prevention and Control Directive, and the European Pollutant Release and Transfer Register Regulation, according to the type of extraction method used. An ecologic study was designed to examine municipal mortality due to 32 types of cancer, across the period 1997 through 2006. Population exposure to pollution was estimated on the basis of distance from town of residence to pollution source. Poisson regression models, using the Bayesian conditional autoregressive model proposed by Besag, York and Molliè and Integrated Nested Laplace Approximations for Bayesian inference, were used: to analyze risk of dying from cancer in a 5-kilometer zone around mining installations; effect of type of industrial activity; and to conduct individual analyses within a 50-kilometer radius of each installation. Excess mortality (relative risk, 95% credible interval) of colorectal cancer (1.097, 1.041-1.157), lung cancer (1.066, 1.009-1.126) specifically related with proximity to opencast coal mining, bladder cancer (1.106, 1.016-1.203) and leukemia (1.093, 1.003-1.191) related with other opencast mining installations, was detected among the overall population in the vicinity of mining installations. Other tumors also associated in the stratified analysis by type of mine, were: thyroid, gallbladder and liver cancers (underground coal installations); brain cancer (opencast coal mining); stomach cancer (coal and other opencast mining installations); and myeloma (underground mining installations). The results suggested an association between risk of dying due to digestive, respiratory, hematologic and thyroid cancers and proximity to Spanish mining industries. These associations were dependent on the type of mine.

[A retrospective cohort study of patients diagnosed of thyroid cancer in the southwest Madrid area. Predictive factors in differentiated thyroid cancer]

OBJECTIVES

To analyze the clinical and histopathological features of patients with thyroid cancer in the southwest Madrid area and to identify poor prognostic factors in the subgroup with differentiated thyroid carcinoma (DTC) of the follicular epitelium.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

A retrospective cohort study of patients diagnosed with thyroid cancer at our hospital from 1998 to 2009. Significant clinical, surgical, and histopathological variables were included in Cox proportional hazard and logistic regression models to identify baseline factors predicting for death, recurrence, and persistent disease in DTC.

RESULTS

A total of 150 patients with a median age of 49 years and a median follow-up of 5.4 years were enrolled. Histological subtypes were: papillary carcinoma (86%), follicular carcinoma (6.6%), medullary carcinoma (4%), poorly differentiated carcinoma (2.7%), and anaplastic carcinoma (0.7%). At the end of the study, 68% of patients were cured, 3.3% had died (disease-specific mortality, 1.3%), 1.3% were lost to follow-up, 6.7% had persistent biochemical disease, and 2.7% persistent clinical disease, while 18% of patients were pending assessment. The best prognostic model for DTC recurrence was TNM staging (stage II-IV vs. I: HR 5.9, 95% CI 1.3-26.6), while the best model for persistent disease or death was ETA clinical staging (high risk vs. low or very low risk: OR 9.2, 95% CI 2.6-33.2).

CONCLUSIONS

In our study, disease-specific mortality and persistent clinical disease were low. Classification of DTC patients based on ETA staging after initial treatment was a good predictor of persistent disease or death.