Exposure to green spaces, cardiovascular risk biomarkers and incident cardiovascular disease in older adults: The Seniors-Enrica II cohort

INTRODUCTION

The impact of residential green spaces on cardiovascular health in older adults remains uncertain.

METHODS

Cohort study involving 2114 adults aged ≥ 65 years without cardiovascular disease (CVD), residing in five dense municipalities (Prince et al., 2015) of the Madrid region and with detailed characterization of their socioeconomic background, health behaviors, CVD biological risk factors, and mental, physical, and cognitive health. Greenness exposure was measured using the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) at varying distances from participants' homes. Traffic exposure, neighborhood environment, neighborhood walkability, and socioeconomic deprivation at the census level were also assessed. Serum N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-ProBNP), high-sensitivity troponin T (hs-TnT), interleukin 6 (IL-6), and Growth Differentiation Factor 15 (GDF-15) were measured at baseline, and incident CVD events identified through electronic medical records (International Classification of Primary Care-2 codes K74, K75, K77, K90, and K92).

RESULTS

After adjusting for sex, age, educational attainment, financial hardship and socioeconomic deprivation at the census level, an interquartile range (IQR) increase in NDVI at 250, 500, 750, and 1000 m around participants' homes was associated with mean differences in ProBNP of -5.56 % (95 %CI: -9.77; -1.35), -5.05 % (-9.58; -0.53), -4.24 % (-8.19, -0.19), and -4.16 % (-7.59; -0.74), respectively; and mean differences in hs-TnT among diabetic participants of -8.03 % (95 %CI: -13.30; -2.77), -9.52 % (-16.08; -2.96), -8.05 % (-13.94, -2.16) and -5.56 % (-10.75; -0.54), respectively. Of similar magnitude, although only statistically significant at 250 and 500 m, were the observed lower IL-6 levels with increasing greenness. GDF-15 levels were independent of NDVI. In prospective analyses (median follow-up 6.29 years), an IQR increase in residential greenness at 500, 750, and 1000 m was associated with a lower risk of incident CVD. The variables that contributed most to the apparent beneficial effects of greenness on CVD were lower exposure to traffic, improved cardiovascular risk factors, and enhanced physical performance. Additionally, neighborhood walkability and increased physical activity were notable contributors among individuals with diabetes.

CONCLUSION

Increased exposure to residential green space was associated with a moderate reduction in CVD risk in older adults residing in densely populated areas.

Exposure to residential traffic and trajectories of unhealthy ageing: results from a nationally-representative cohort of older adults

BACKGROUND

Traffic exposure has been associated with biomarkers of increased biological ageing, age-related chronic morbidities, and increased respiratory, cardiovascular, and all-cause mortality. Whether it is associated with functional impairments and unhealthy ageing trajectories is unknown.

METHODS

Nationally representative population-based cohort with 3,126 community-dwelling individuals aged ≥60 years who contributed 8,291 biannual visits over a 10 year period. Unhealthy ageing was estimated with a deficit accumulation index (DAI) based on the number and severity of 52 health deficits, including 22 objectively-measured impairments in physical and cognitive functioning. Differences in DAI at each follow-up across quintiles of residential traffic density (RTD) at 50 and 100 meters, and closest distance to a petrol station, were estimated using flexible marginal structural models with inverse probability of censoring weights. Models were adjusted for sociodemographic and time-varying lifestyle factors, social deprivation index at the census tract and residential exposure to natural spaces.

RESULTS

At baseline, the mean (SD) age and DAI score of the participants were 69.0 (6.6) years and 17.02 (11.0) %, and 54.0% were women. The median (IQR) RTD at 50 and 100 meters were 77 (31-467) and 509 (182-1802) vehicles/day, and the mean (SD) distance to the nearest petrol station of 962 (1317) meters. The average increase in DAI (95%CI) for participants in quintiles Q2-Q5 (vs Q1) of RTD at 50 meters was of 1.51 (0.50, 2.53), 0.98 (-0.05, 2.01), 2.20 (1.18, 3.21) and 1.98 (0.90, 3.05), respectively. Consistent findings were observed at 100 meters. By domains, most of the deficits accumulated with increased RTD were of a functional nature, although RTD at 50 meters was also associated with worse self-reported health, increased vitality problems and higher incidence of chronic morbidities. Living closer to a petrol station was associated with a higher incidence of functional impairments and chronic morbidities.

CONCLUSIONS

Exposure to nearby residential traffic is associated with accelerated trajectories of unhealthy ageing. Diminishing traffic pollution should become a priority intervention for adding healthy years to life in the old age.

The JAK3Q988P mutation reveals oncogenic potential and resistance to ruxolitinib

T-cell acute lymphoblastic leukemia (T-ALL) arises from the malignant transformation of T-cell progenitors at various differentiation stages. Given that patients who relapse have a dismal prognosis, there is an urgent need to identify the molecular alterations that are present in such patients and promote leukemogenesis to implement personalized therapies with higher efficacy and fewer adverse effects. In the present manuscript, we identified the JAK3Q988P mutation in a T-ALL patient who did not achieve a durable response after the conventional treatment and whose tumor cells at relapse presented constitutive activation of the JAK/STAT pathway. Although JAK3Q988P has been previously identified in T-ALL patients from different studies, the functional consequences exerted by this mutation remain unexplored. Through the combination of different hematopoietic cellular models, we functionally characterize JAK3Q988P as an oncogenic mutation that contributes to leukemogenesis. Notably, JAK3Q988P not only promotes constitutive activation of the JAK/STAT pathway in the absence of cytokines and growth factors, as is the case for other JAK3 mutations that have been functionally characterized as oncogenic, but also functions independently of JAK1 and IL2RG, resulting in high oncogenic potential as well as resistance to ruxolitinib. Our results indicate that ruxolitinib may not be efficient for future patients bearing the JAK3Q988P mutation who instead may obtain greater benefits from treatments involving other pharmacological inhibitors such as tofacitinib.

Blood Selenium Concentrations Are Inversely Associated with the Risk of Undernutrition in Older Adults

BACKGROUND

Selenium is an essential trace element with an antioxidant and anti-inflammatory capacity that has been associated in experimental studies with beneficial effects on appetite control, the regulation of the gut microbiota, and control of the anabolic-catabolic balance. The main aim of the present study was to evaluate the association between circulating selenium concentrations and the risk of developing undernutrition in older adults.

METHODS

This was a cohort study with 1398 well-nourished community-dwelling individuals aged ≥ 65 years residing in Spain in 2017, who were followed for a mean of 2.3 years. Whole blood selenium was measured at baseline using inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometry. Undernutrition was assessed at baseline and at follow-up, and defined as having at least one of the three GLIM phenotypic criteria (involuntary weight loss, a low body mass index, and a reduced muscle mass) and at least one of the two etiologic criteria (reduced food consumption or nutrient assimilation and inflammation/disease burden).

RESULTS

During the follow-up, 142 participants (11%) developed moderate undernutrition and 113 (8.8%) severe undernutrition. The standardized relative risks of moderate and severe undernutrition at the 75th percentile of Se levels versus the 25th were 0.90 and 0.70, respectively. In dose-response analyses, the risk of severe undernutrition decreased linearly with increasing selenium concentrations. This association was independent of protein intake or diet quality and was stronger among participants with a diagnosis of a musculoskeletal disorder.

CONCLUSIONS

The results suggest that an adequate dietary selenium status is needed to prevent undernutrition in older adults. Also, this may open the door for clinical trials with selenium supplementation, at doses considered as safe, to prevent undernutrition.

Socio-economic inequalities in lung cancer mortality in Spain: a nation-wide study using area-based deprivation

BACKGROUND

Lung cancer is the main cause of cancer mortality worldwide and in Spain. Several previous studies have documented socio-economic inequalities in lung cancer mortality but these have focused on specific provinces or cities. The goal of this study was to describe lung cancer mortality in Spain by sex as a function of socio-economic deprivation.

METHODS

We analysed all registered deaths from lung cancer during the period 2011-2017 in Spain. Mortality data was obtained from the National Institute of Statistics, and socio-economic level was measured with the small-area deprivation index developed by the Spanish Society of Epidemiology, with the census tract of residence at the time of death as the unit of analysis. We computed crude and age-standardized rates per 100,000 inhabitants by sex, deprivation quintile, and type of municipality (rural, semi-rural, urban) considering the 2013 European standard population (ASR-E). We further calculated ASR-E ratios between the most deprived (Q5) and the least deprived (Q1) areas and mapped census tract smoothed standardized lung cancer mortality ratios by sex.

RESULTS

We observed 148,425 lung cancer deaths (80.7% in men), with 73.5 deaths per 100,000 men and 17.1 deaths per 100,000 women. Deaths from lung cancer in men were five times more frequent than in women (ASR-E ratio = 5.3). Women residing in the least deprived areas had higher mortality from lung cancer (ASR-E = 22.2), compared to women residing in the most deprived areas (ASR-E = 13.2), with a clear gradient among the quintiles of deprivation. For men, this pattern was reversed, with the highest mortality occurring in areas of lower socio-economic level (ASR-E = 99.0 in Q5 vs. ASR-E = 86.6 in Q1). These socio-economic inequalities remained fairly stable over time and across urban and rural areas.

CONCLUSIONS

Socio-economic status is strongly related to lung cancer mortality, showing opposite patterns in men and women, such that mortality is highest in women residing in the least deprived areas and men residing in the most deprived areas. Systematic surveillance of lung cancer mortality by socio-economic status may facilitate the assessment of public health interventions aimed at mitigating cancer inequalities in Spain.

Identification of NRF2 Activation as a Prognostic Biomarker in T-Cell Acute Lymphoblastic Leukaemia

The standard-of-care treatment of T-cell acute lymphoblastic leukaemia (T-ALL) with chemotherapy usually achieves reasonable rates of initial complete response. However, patients who relapse or do not respond to conventional therapy show dismal outcomes, with cure rates below 10% and limited therapeutic options. To ameliorate the clinical management of these patients, it is urgent to identify biomarkers able to predict their outcomes. In this work, we investigate whether NRF2 activation constitutes a biomarker with prognostic value in T-ALL. Using transcriptomic, genomic, and clinical data, we found that T-ALL patients with high NFE2L2 levels had shorter overall survival. Our results demonstrate that the PI3K-AKT-mTOR pathway is involved in the oncogenic signalling induced by NRF2 in T-ALL. Furthermore, T-ALL patients with high NFE2L2 levels displayed genetic programs of drug resistance that may be provided by NRF2-induced biosynthesis of glutathione. Altogether, our results indicate that high levels of NFE2L2 may be a predictive biomarker of poor treatment response in T-ALL patients, which would explain the poor prognosis associated with these patients. This enhanced understanding of NRF2 biology in T-ALL may allow a more refined stratification of patients and the proposal of targeted therapies, with the ultimate goal of improving the outcome of relapsed/refractory T-ALL patients.

SARS-CoV-2 Infection During the First and Second Pandemic Waves in Spain: the ENE-COVID Study

Objectives. To describe participant characteristics associated with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 infection in Spain's first 2 COVID-19 waves per the Spanish National Seroepidemiological Survey of SARS-CoV-2 Infection (ENE-COVID). Methods. A representative cohort of the noninstitutionalized Spanish population, selected through stratified 2-stage sampling, answered a questionnaire and received point-of-care testing April to June 2020 (first wave: n = 68 287); previously seronegative participants repeated the questionnaire and test November 2020 (second wave: n = 44 451). We estimated seropositivity by wave and participant characteristics, accounting for sampling weights, nonresponse, and design effects. Results. We found that 6.0% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 5.7%, 6.4%) of Spain's population was infected by June and 3.8% (95% CI = 3.5%, 4.1%) more by November 2020. Both genders were equally affected. Seroprevalence decreased with age in adults 20 years and older in the second wave; socioeconomic differences increased. Health care workers were affected at 11.1% (95% CI = 9.0%, 13.6%) and 6.1% (95% CI = 4.4%, 8.5%) in the first and second waves, respectively. Living with an infected person increased infection risk to 22.1% (95% CI = 18.9%, 25.6%) in the first and 35.0% (95% CI = 30.8%, 39.4%) in the second wave. Conclusions. ENE-COVID characterized the first 2 pandemic waves, when information from surveillance systems was incomplete. (Am J Public Health. 2023;113(5):533-544. https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2023.307233).

SOCS3 deregulation contributes to aberrant activation of the JAK/STAT pathway in precursor T-cell neoplasms

Despite the Janus kinase/signal transducers and activators of transcription (JAK/STAT) pathway being frequently altered in T-ALL/LBL, no specific therapy has been approved for T-ALL/LBL patients with constitutive signalling by JAK/STAT, so there is an urgent need to identify pathway members that may be potential therapeutic targets. In the present study, we searched for JAK/STAT pathway members potentially modulated through aberrant methylation and identified SOCS3 hypermethylation as a recurrent event in T-ALL/LBL. Additionally, we explored the implications of SOCS3 deregulation in T-ALL/LBL and demonstrated that SOCS3 counteracts the constitutive activation of the JAK/STAT pathway through different molecular mechanisms. Therefore, SOCS3 emerges as a potential therapeutic target in T-ALL/LBL.

Toenail zinc as a biomarker: Relationship with sources of environmental exposure and with genetic variability in MCC-Spain study

BACKGROUND

Toenails are commonly used as biomarkers of exposure to zinc (Zn), but there is scarce information about their relationship with sources of exposure to Zn.

OBJECTIVES

To investigate the main determinants of toenail Zn, including selected sources of environmental exposure to Zn and individual genetic variability in Zn metabolism.

METHODS

We determined toenail Zn by inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry in 3,448 general population controls from the MultiCase-Control study MCC-Spain. We assessed dietary and supplement Zn intake using food frequency questionnaires, residential proximity to Zn-emitting industries and residential topsoil Zn levels through interpolation methods. We constructed a polygenic score of genetic variability based on 81 single nucleotide polymorphisms in genes involved in Zn metabolism. Geometric mean ratios of toenail Zn across categories of each determinant were estimated from multivariate linear regression models on log-transformed toenail Zn.

RESULTS

Geometric mean toenail Zn was 104.1 µg/g in men and 100.3 µg/g in women. Geometric mean toenail Zn levels were 7 % lower (95 % confidence interval 1-13 %) in men older than 69 years and those in the upper tertile of fibre intake, and 9 % higher (3-16 %) in smoking men. Women residing within 3 km from Zn-emitting industries had 4 % higher geometric mean toenail Zn levels (0-9 %). Dietary Zn intake and polygenic score were unrelated to toenail Zn. Overall, the available determinants only explained 9.3 % of toenail Zn variability in men and 4.8 % in women.

DISCUSSION

Sociodemographic factors, lifestyle, diet, and environmental exposure explained little of the individual variability of toenail Zn in the study population. The available genetic variants related to Zn metabolism were not associated with toenail Zn.

Rural-urban gradients and all-cause, cardiovascular and cancer mortality in Spain using individual data

•

The literature reporting on rural-urban health status disparities remains inconclusive.

•

We analyzed data from a longitudinal population-based study using individual observations.

•

Our results show that the risks of all-cause and cancer mortality are greater in large cities than in other municipalities, with no clear urban-rural gradient.

•

Not differences were found among territories in cardiovascular mortality.

Metal and metalloid levels in topsoil and municipal cardiovascular mortality in Spain

The role of metals and metalloids beyond arsenic, copper, lead and cadmium in cardiovascular disease is not entirely clear. The aim of this study was to assess the association between 18 metal or metalloid levels in topsoil (upper soil horizon) with all-cause and specific cardiovascular mortality endpoints in Spain. We designed an ecological spatial study, to assess cardiovascular mortality in 7941 Spanish mainland towns from 2010 to 2014. The estimation of metals and metalloids concentration in topsoil came from the Geochemical Atlas of Spain from 13,317 soil samples. We also summarized the joint variability of the metals using principal components analysis (PCA). These components (PCs) were included in a Besag, York, and Mollié model to assess their association with cardiovascular mortality from all causes, coronary heart disease, cerebrovascular, hypertension, and conduction disorders. Our results showed, both in men and women, that at the lowest component scores range, PC2 (mainly reflecting Al, Be, Tl and U) was positively associated with coronary heart disease and cerebrovascular mortality. At medium/highest scores range, PC4 (mainly reflecting Hg) was positively associated with cerebrovascular mortality. For PC3 (reflecting Se), the association with coronary heart disease mortality was positive only in men at the highest PC scores range. For PC1 (partly reflecting metals such as Pb, As, Cu or Cd), we observed a strongly suggestive positive association with all-cause cardiovascular diseases mortality. Our ecological results are consistent with the available evidence supporting a cardiovascular role of excessive exposure to Se, Hg, Pb, As, Cu and Cd, but also identify Al, Be, Tl and U as potentially novel cardiovascular factors. Additional research is needed to confirm the biological relevance of our findings.

Near real-time surveillance of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic with incomplete data

When responding to infectious disease outbreaks, rapid and accurate estimation of the epidemic trajectory is critical. However, two common data collection problems affect the reliability of the epidemiological data in real time: missing information on the time of first symptoms, and retrospective revision of historical information, including right censoring. Here, we propose an approach to construct epidemic curves in near real time that addresses these two challenges by 1) imputation of dates of symptom onset for reported cases using a dynamically-estimated "backward" reporting delay conditional distribution, and 2) adjustment for right censoring using the NobBS software package to nowcast cases by date of symptom onset. This process allows us to obtain an approximation of the time-varying reproduction number (Rt) in real time. We apply this approach to characterize the early SARS-CoV-2 outbreak in two Spanish regions between March and April 2020. We evaluate how these real-time estimates compare with more complete epidemiological data that became available later. We explore the impact of the different assumptions on the estimates, and compare our estimates with those obtained from commonly used surveillance approaches. Our framework can help improve accuracy, quantify uncertainty, and evaluate frequently unstated assumptions when recovering the epidemic curves from limited data obtained from public health systems in other locations.

Socio-Economic Inequalities in Lung Cancer Outcomes: An Overview of Systematic Reviews

In the past decade, evidence has accumulated about socio-economic inequalities in very diverse lung cancer outcomes. To better understand the global effects of socio-economic factors in lung cancer, we conducted an overview of systematic reviews. Four databases were searched for systematic reviews reporting on the relationship between measures of socio-economic status (SES) (individual or area-based) and diverse lung cancer outcomes, including epidemiological indicators and diagnosis- and treatment-related variables. AMSTAR-2 was used to assess the quality of the selected systematic reviews. Eight systematic reviews based on 220 original studies and 8 different indicators were identified. Compared to people with a high SES, people with a lower SES appear to be more likely to develop and die from lung cancer. People with lower SES also have lower cancer survival, most likely due to the lower likelihood of receiving both traditional and next-generation treatments, higher rates of comorbidities, and the higher likelihood of being admitted as emergency. People with a lower SES are generally not diagnosed at later stages, but this may change after broader implementation of lung cancer screening, as early evidence suggests that there may be socio-economic inequalities in its use.

Long-term impact of the 2008 economic crisis in Spain on road traffic collisions mortality by socioeconomic position

We aimed to assess the effect of the 2008 crisis on road traffic collision (RTC) mortality in Spain, by socioeconomic position (SEP) and type of road use. This prospective, country-wide study covered all adults living in Spain and aged ≥30 years in November 2001. The long-term effect of the crisis was assessed by measuring the monthly percentage change (MPC) in RTC mortality between the pre-crisis (2002-2007) and crisis period (2008-2011). During the recession, RTC mortality fell more in people with low compared to high SEP, so MPCs difference between periods were of a higher magnitude in the low compared to high SEP groups, especially among men motorcyclists. RTC mortality trends were favorable following the 2008 crisis, particularly among low-SEP groups. In men motorcyclists, the upward trend of the pre-crisis period reversed course.

ENE-COVID nationwide serosurvey served to characterize asymptomatic infections and to develop a symptom-based risk score to predict COVID-19

Objectives

To characterize asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infections and develop a symptom-based risk score useful in primary healthcare.

Study design and setting

Sixty-one thousand ninty-two community-dwelling participants in a nationwide population-based serosurvey completed a questionnaire on COVID-19 symptoms and received an immunoassay for SARS-CoV-2 IgG antibodies between April 27 and June 22, 2020. Standardized prevalence ratios for asymptomatic infection were estimated across participant characteristics. We constructed a symptom-based risk score and evaluated its ability to predict SARS-CoV-2 infection.

Results

Of all, 28.7% of infections were asymptomatic (95% CI 26.1–31.4%). Standardized asymptomatic prevalence ratios were 1.19 (1.02–1.40) for men vs. women, 1.82 (1.33–2.50) and 1.45 (0.96–2.18) for individuals <20 and ≥80 years vs. those aged 40–59, 1.27 (1.03–1.55) for smokers vs. nonsmokers, and 1.91 (1.59–2.29) for individuals without vs. with case contact. In symptomatic population, a symptom-based score (weights: severe tiredness = 1; absence of sore throat = 1; fever = 2; anosmia/ageusia = 5) reached standardized seroprevalence ratio of 8.71 (7.37–10.3), discrimination index of 0.79 (0.77–0.81), and sensitivity and specificity of 71.4% (68.1–74.4%) and 74.2% (73.1–75.2%) for a score ≥3.

Conclusion

The presence of anosmia/ageusia, fever with severe tiredness, or fever without sore throat should serve to suspect COVID-19 in areas with active viral circulation. The proportion of asymptomatics in children and adolescents challenges infection control.

Cancer incidence estimation from mortality data: a validation study within a population-based cancer registry

Background

Population-based cancer registries are required to calculate cancer incidence in a geographical area, and several methods have been developed to obtain estimations of cancer incidence in areas not covered by a cancer registry. However, an extended analysis of those methods in order to confirm their validity is still needed.

Methods

We assessed the validity of one of the most frequently used methods to estimate cancer incidence, on the basis of cancer mortality data and the incidence-to-mortality ratio (IMR), the IMR method. Using the previous 15-year cancer mortality time series, we derived the expected yearly number of cancer cases in the period 2004–2013 for six cancer sites for each sex. Generalized linear mixed models, including a polynomial function for the year of death and smoothing splines for age, were adjusted. Models were fitted under a Bayesian framework based on Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. The IMR method was applied to five scenarios reflecting different assumptions regarding the behavior of the IMR. We compared incident cases estimated with the IMR method to observed cases diagnosed in 2004–2013 in Granada. A goodness-of-fit (GOF) indicator was formulated to determine the best estimation scenario.

Results

A total of 39,848 cancer incidence cases and 43,884 deaths due to cancer were included. The relative differences between the observed and predicted numbers of cancer cases were less than 10% for most cancer sites. The constant assumption for the IMR trend provided the best GOF for colon, rectal, lung, bladder, and stomach cancers in men and colon, rectum, breast, and corpus uteri in women. The linear assumption was better for lung and ovarian cancers in women and prostate cancer in men. In the best scenario, the mean absolute percentage error was 6% in men and 4% in women for overall cancer. Female breast cancer and prostate cancer obtained the worst GOF results in all scenarios.

Conclusion

A comparison with a historical time series of real data in a population-based cancer registry indicated that the IMR method is a valid tool for the estimation of cancer incidence. The goodness-of-fit indicator proposed can help select the best assumption for the IMR based on a statistical argument.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12963-021-00248-1.

Near real-time surveillance of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic with incomplete data

Designing public health responses to outbreaks requires close monitoring of population-level health indicators in real-time. Thus, an accurate estimation of the epidemic curve is critical. We propose an approach to reconstruct epidemic curves in near real time. We apply this approach to characterize the early SARS-CoV-2 outbreak in two Spanish regions between March and April 2020. We address two data collection problems that affected the reliability of the available real-time epidemiological data, namely, the frequent missing information documenting when a patient first experienced symptoms, and the frequent retrospective revision of historical information (including right censoring). This is done by using a novel back-calculating procedure based on imputing patients' dates of symptom onset from reported cases, according to a dynamically-estimated "backward" reporting delay conditional distribution, and adjusting for right censoring using an existing package, NobBS , to estimate in real time (nowcast) cases by date of symptom onset. This process allows us to obtain an approximation of the time-varying reproduction number ( R t ) in real-time. At each step, we evaluate how different assumptions affect the recovered epidemiological events and compare the proposed approach to the alternative procedure of merely using curves of case counts, by report day, to characterize the time-evolution of the outbreak. Finally, we assess how these real-time estimates compare with subsequently documented epidemiological information that is considered more reliable and complete that became available later in time. Our approach may help improve accuracy, quantify uncertainty, and evaluate frequently unstated assumptions when recovering the epidemic curves from limited data obtained from public health surveillance systems in other locations.

Approximate Bayesian inference for multivariate point pattern analysis in disease mapping

We present a novel approach for analysing multivariate case-control georeferenced data in a Bayesian disease mapping context using stochastic partial differential equations (SPDEs) and the integrated nested Laplace approximation (INLA) for model fitting. In particular, we propose smooth terms based on SPDE models to estimate the underlying spatial variation as well as risk associated to pollution sources. Log-Gaussian Cox processes are used to estimate the intensity of the cases and controls, to account for risk factors and include a term to measure spatial residual variation. Each intensity is modelled on a baseline spatial effect (estimated from both controls and cases), a disease-specific spatial term and the effects of some covariates. By fitting these models, the residual spatial terms can be easily compared to detect high-risk areas not explained by the covariates. Three different types of effects to model exposure to pollution sources are considered on the distance to the source: a fixed effect, a smooth term to model non-linear effects by means of a discrete random walk of order one and a Gaussian process in one dimension with a Matérn covariance function. Spatial terms are modelled using a Gaussian process in two dimensions with a Matérn covariance function and are approximated using an approach based on solving an SPDE through INLA. Finally, this new framework is applied to a dataset of three different types of cancer and a set of controls from Alcalá de Henares (Madrid, Spain). Covariates available include the distance to several polluting industries and socioeconomic indicators. Our findings point to a possible risk increase due to the proximity to some of these industries.

Infection fatality risk for SARS-CoV-2 in community dwelling population of Spain: nationwide seroepidemiological study

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the infection fatality risk for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), based on deaths with confirmed coronavirus disease 2019 (covid-19) and excess deaths from all causes.

DESIGN

Nationwide seroepidemiological study.

SETTING

First wave of covid-19 pandemic in Spain.

PARTICIPANTS

Community dwelling individuals of all ages.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

The main outcome measure was overall, and age and sex specific, infection fatality risk for SARS-CoV-2 (the number of covid-19 deaths and excess deaths divided by the estimated number of SARS-CoV-2 infections) in the community dwelling Spanish population. Deaths with laboratory confirmed covid-19 were obtained from the National Epidemiological Surveillance Network (RENAVE) and excess all cause deaths from the Monitoring Mortality System (MoMo), up to 15 July 2020. SARS-CoV-2 infections in Spain were derived from the estimated seroprevalence by a chemiluminescent microparticle immunoassay for IgG antibodies in 61 098 participants in the ENE-COVID nationwide seroepidemiological survey between 27 April and 22 June 2020.

RESULTS

The overall infection fatality risk was 0.8% (19 228 of 2.3 million infected individuals, 95% confidence interval 0.8% to 0.9%) for confirmed covid-19 deaths and 1.1% (24 778 of 2.3 million infected individuals, 1.0% to 1.2%) for excess deaths. The infection fatality risk was 1.1% (95% confidence interval 1.0% to 1.2%) to 1.4% (1.3% to 1.5%) in men and 0.6% (0.5% to 0.6%) to 0.8% (0.7% to 0.8%) in women. The infection fatality risk increased sharply after age 50, ranging from 11.6% (8.1% to 16.5%) to 16.4% (11.4% to 23.2%) in men aged 80 or more and from 4.6% (3.4% to 6.3%) to 6.5% (4.7% to 8.8%) in women aged 80 or more.

CONCLUSION

The increase in SARS-CoV-2 infection fatality risk after age 50 appeared to be more noticeable in men than in women. Based on the results of this study, fatality from covid-19 was greater than that reported for other common respiratory diseases, such as seasonal influenza.

Hospital admissions/mortality ratio: a composite health indicator for monitoring NCD

Background

Our aim was to test the usefulness of a new tool to monitor NCD. We evaluated a composite indicator, the ratio of hospitalizations vs mortality rates (HMR), by assessing its capacity of identifying additional variability among regions. In this communication, we present the analysis corresponding to ischemic heart disease as an example.

Methods

We used the Hospital Morbidity Survey and the Death Statistics for Spain in 2016, both provided by the National Institute of Statistics, to calculate age-adjusted hospitalisation and mortality rates for ischemic heart disease for men and women in all 52 provinces of Spain. Subsequently, we computed HMR, the ratio of the age-adjusted of hospital morbidity and mortality rates. The correlation and linear adjustment between provincial mortality and morbidity rates, as well as mortality and HMR, were also estimated by sex.

Results

The rate of hospital admissions for ischemic heart disease in Spain was 407 per 100,000 in men and 129.4 in women. The mortality rate was 93.1 per 100,000 in men and 40.3 in women. In both sexes, the highest morbidity and mortality rates were observed in the south of Spain. Pearson correlation between morbidity and mortality rates were 0.53 (p &lt; 0.01) in men and 0.75 (p &lt; 0.05) in women. HMR showed a different spatial pattern with important variability. In men the average ratio was 4.3, with a range of 2.8 (Tenerife) to 7.1 (Melilla); in women the average was 3.2 with a range between1.7 (Zamora and Tenerife) and 4.7 (Barcelona), and in both sexes very high ratios were found in Catalonia's provinces. Association between mortality rate and HMR showed a negative correlation in both men (-0.39; p &lt; 0.01) and women (-0.24; p &lt; 0.05).

Conclusions

HMR is a composite indicator that provides complementary information regarding the individual analysis of hospital morbidity and mortality rates. HMR of ischemic heart disease shows an important geographical variability and an inverse association with mortality.

Towards an EU sustainable health information infrastructure. Integrating technical and political views and interest

Background

Health information systems (HIS) play a key role in providing information for decision-making. Europe lacks of an integrated HIS on non-communicable diseases (NCD) and Health Systems Performance (HSP) able to compare health problems across countries. NCDs are the main contributor to the EU-burden of disease, including the highest mortality rates. There is a general agreement among public health policy makers and researchers on the need of an integrated EU health information (HI) infrastructure to monitor risk factors, NCD and HSP. Such infrastructure would provide common inputs for public health and research to prioritize health policies. However, there is no EU-EEA consensus on how to go forward with this initiative.

Methods

The Information for Action (InfAct) project is aimed at establishing a sustainable HI infrastructure on HIS and HSP by cataloging resources, experience, research capacities and expertise into a 'one-stop shop'. Significant political will is needed to support and systematically feed a functional and permanent governance structure. InfAct provides a ground for Member States to discuss and generate consensus through two main boards: 1) Technical Dialogues (TD), composed by national experts, to discuss scientific aspects, feasibility and added value; and 2) Assembly of Members (AoM) where political representatives from Ministries of Health and Research provide the framework of political acceptance and guarantee of implementation and future development.

Results

Both boards reveal different interests and concerns. The AoM rather focused on resources and necessary political decisions based on expected returns. The TD focused on feasibility aspects and new adaptations required from current systems. The feedback provided by both boards is key to develop a sustainable EU-HIS infrastructure.

Conclusions

The TD and the AoM are key forums to provide feedback, guidance and advocacy to build a sustainable EU-HIS infrastructure

Use of non-health EU databases for health surveillance. En-risk application

Background

To combine health information and environmental health determinants is key, for epidemiological monitoring and health risk studies but its integration represents a challenge that requires specific expertise. An example of a potentially useful source of significant environmental data relevant for health is the European Pollutant Release and Transfer Register (E-PRTR), which allows estimating exposure to industrial pollution. Our aim was to develop an easy-to-use tool that allows to perform a screening suggesting the presence/absence of excess risk of a disease linked to residential proximity to industrial pollution.

Methods

En-risk: java interactive tool was developed to merge E-PRTR information and municipal mortality/morbidity data, to perform an exploratory spatial analysis of association between them by type of industrial facility using distance as proxy of exposure. The application needs cartography of the country and a database of the annual observed deaths (mortality) or cases (morbidity) and population broken down by age groups and sex per municipality. With this it calculates the expected number of deaths, the distance from the municipal centroids to the industrial location (classifying municipalities as exposed or not exposed), and perform the statistical analyses. Municipal lung cancer deaths (2005-2009) in Spain provided by the National Institute of Statistics were analyzed with this application as an example.

Results

En-risk gives a table of Relative Risk of mortality/morbidity due to exposure to industrial pollution by industrial sector and sex. The analysis in lung cancer deaths showed an excess of mortality associated to proximity to several industrial sectors.

Conclusions

En-risk facilitates the study of the relationship between industrial pollution and health around Europe. It can be used by public health services to identify health problems.

Deprivation gap in colorectal cancer survival attributable to stage at diagnosis: A population-based study in Spain

OBJECTIVE

Socioeconomic inequalities in colorectal cancer (CRC) survival are a major concern of the Spanish public health system. If these inequalities were mainly due to differences in stage at diagnosis, population-based screening programs might reduce them substantially. We aimed to determine to what extent adverse stage distribution contributed to survival inequalities in a Spanish region before the implementation of a CRC screening program.

METHODS

We analyzed data from a population-based cohort study that included all patients living in a region of southern Spain with CRC diagnosed between 2004 and 2013. The European Deprivation Index was used to assign each patient a socioeconomic level based on their area of residence. The role of tumor stage in survival disparities between socioeconomic groups was assessed using a causal mediation analysis.

RESULTS

A total of 2802 men and 1957 women were included in the study. For men, the adjusted difference in deaths between the most deprived and the most affluent areas was 131 deaths per 1000 person-years by the first year after diagnosis. Of these deaths, 42 (per 1000 person-years) were attributable to differences in stage at diagnosis. No socioeconomic disparities in survival were detected among female patients.

CONCLUSIONS

In this study, we mainly detected socioeconomic disparities in short term survival of male patients. More than two thirds of these inequalities could not be attributed to differences in stage at diagnosis. Our results suggest that in addition to a screening program, other public health interventions are necessary to reduce the deprivation gap in survival.

Association between proximity to industrial chemical installations and cancer mortality in Spain

It is likely that pollution from chemical facilities will affect the health of any exposed population; however, the majority of scientific evidence available has focused on occupational exposure rather than environmental. Consequently, this study assessed whether there could have been an excess of cancer-related mortality associated with environmental exposure to pollution from chemical installations - for populations residing in municipalities in the vicinity of chemical industries. To this end, we designed an ecological study which assessed municipal mortality due to 32 types of cancer in the period from 1999 to 2008. The exposure to pollution was estimated using distance from the facilities to the centroid of the municipality as a proxy for exposure. In order to assess any increased cancer mortality risk in municipalities potentially exposed to chemical facilities pollution (situated at a distance of ≤5 km from a chemical installation), we employed Bayesian Hierarchical Poisson Regression Models. This included two Bayesian inference methods: Integrated Nested Laplace Approximations (INLA) and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC, for validation). The reference category consisted of municipalities beyond the 5 km limit. We found higher mortality risk (relative risk, RR; estimated by INLA, 95% credible interval, 95%CrI) for both sexes for colorectal (RR, 1.09; 95%CrI, 1.05-1.15), gallbladder (1.14; 1.03-1.27), and ovarian cancers (1.10; 1.02-1.20) associated with organic chemical installations. Notably, pleural cancer (2.27; 1.49-3.41) in both sexes was related to fertilizer facilities. Associations were found for women, specifically for ovarian (1.11; 1.01-1.22) and breast cancers (1.06; 1.00-1.13) in the proximity of explosives/pyrotechnics installations; increased breast cancer mortality risk (1.10; 1.03-1.18) was associated with proximity to inorganic chemical installations. The results suggest that environmental exposure to pollutants from some types of chemical facilities may be associated with increased mortality from several different types of cancer.

Author Correction: Validating a breast cancer score in Spanish women. The MCC-Spain study

An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via a link at the top of the paper.

Different spatial pattern of municipal prostate cancer mortality in younger men in Spain

Background

Prostate cancer (PC) primarily affects elderly men. However, the specific features of cases diagnosed at younger ages (<65 years) suggest that they may represent a different clinical subtype. Our aim was to assess this suggestion by contrasting the geographical PC mortality and hospital admissions patterns in Spain for all ages to those in younger men.

Methods

The Spanish National Institute of Statistics supplied data on PC mortality, hospital admission, and population data. We estimated the expected town-specific number of deaths and calculated the standardized mortality ratios. Spatial autoregressive models of Besag-York-Mollié provided smoother municipal estimators of PC mortality risk (all ages; <65 years). We computed the provincial age-standardized rate ratios of PC hospital admissions (all men; <60 years) using Spanish rates as the reference.

Results

A total of 29,566 PC deaths (6% among those <65 years) were registered between 2010–2014, with three high-mortality risk zones: Northwest Spain; Southwest Andalusia & Granada; and a broad band extending from the Pyrenees Mountains to the north of Valencia. In younger men, the spatial patterns shared the high risk of mortality in the Northwest but not the central band. The PC hospital discharge rates confirmed a North-South gradient but also low mortality/high admission rates in Madrid and Barcelona and the opposite in Southwest Andalusia.

Conclusion

The consistent high PC mortality/morbidity risk in the Northwest of Spain indicates an area with a real excess of risk. The different spatial pattern in younger men suggests that some factors associated with geographical risk might have differential effects by age. Finally, the regional divergences in mortality and morbidity hint at clinical variability as a source of inequity within Spain.

Dietary Zinc and Risk of Prostate Cancer in Spain: MCC-Spain Study

Zinc is a key trace element in normal prostate cell metabolism, and is decreased in neoplastic cells. However, the association between dietary zinc and prostate cancer (PC) in epidemiologic studies is a conflicting one. Our aim was to explore this association in an MCC-Spain case-control study, considering tumor aggressiveness and extension, as well as genetic susceptibility to PC. 733 incident cases and 1228 population-based controls were included for this study. Dietary zinc was assessed using a food frequency questionnaire, and genetic susceptibility was assessed with a single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNP)-based polygenic risk score (PRS). The association between zinc intake and PC was evaluated with mixed logistic and multinomial regression models. They showed an increased risk of PC in those with higher intake of zinc (Odds Ratio (OR) tertile 3vs1: 1.39; 95% Confidence interval (CI):1.00–1.95). This association was mainly observed in low grade PC (Gleason = 6 RRR tertile 3vs1: 1.76; 95% CI:1.18–2.63) as well as in localized tumors (cT1-cT2a RRR tertile 3vs1: 1.40; 95% CI:1.00–1.95) and among those with higher PRS (OR tertile 3vs1: 1.50; 95% CI:0.89–2.53). In conclusion, a higher dietary zinc intake could increase the risk of low grade and localized tumors. Men with higher genetic susceptibility might also have a higher risk of PC associated with this nutrient intake.

Pigmentation phototype and prostate and breast cancer in a select Spanish population-A Mendelian randomization analysis in the MCC-Spain study

INTRODUCTION

Phototype has been associated with an increased risk of prostate cancer, and it is yet unknown if it is related to other hormone-dependent cancers, such as breast cancer or whether this association could be considered causal.

METHODS

We examined the association between the phototype and breast and prostate cancers using a Mendelian randomization analysis. We studied 1,738 incident cases of breast cancer and another 817 cases of prostate cancer. To perform a Mendelian randomization analysis on the phototype-cancer relationship, a genetic pigmentation score was required that met the following criteria: (1) the genetic pigmentation score was associated with phototype in controls; (2) the genetic pigmentation score was not associated with confounders in the relationship between phototype and cancer, and (3) the genetic pigmentation score was associated with cancer only through its association with phototype. Once this genetic score is available, the association between genetic pigmentation score and cancer can be identified as the association between phototype and cancer.

RESULTS

The association between the genetic pigmentation score and phototype in controls showed that a higher genetic pigmentation score was associated with fair skin, blond hair, blue eyes and the presence of freckles. Applying the Mendelian randomization analysis, we verified that there was no association between the genetic pigmentation score and cancers of the breast and prostate.

CONCLUSIONS

Phototype is not associated with breast or prostate cancer.

Reconceptualization innovative moments as a predictor of symptomatology improvement in treatment for depression

OBJECTIVES

In previous studies, reconceptualization innovative moments were associated with successful psychotherapy. Reconceptualization has two components-(a) a positive temporal contrast between the past self and the present self (contrasting self [CS]) and (b) a description of how and/or why this change has occurred (change process [CP])-from the perspective of the client. The aim of this study is to analyse if CS and CP have the same association with outcomes as reconceptualization.

METHOD

Sixteen cases of clients with major depression (305 sessions) were analysed. Longitudinal regression models were used to explore if proportions of CS, CP, and reconceptualization predicted outcome measures and if outcome measures predicted CS, CP, and reconceptualization.

RESULTS

Reconceptualization is less frequent than CS and CP taken separately, but reconceptualization was a better predictor of treatment outcomes than were its separate components. Moreover, symptom improvement did not predict reconceptualization.

CONCLUSION

The construction of new meanings is important in improving depressive symptomatology. Psychotherapists can elicit these new meanings in their regular practice by posing questions that may help clients to conceptualize what is changing in themselves (CS) and questions of how this change is occurring (CP). The construction of an integrative account of these new meanings is associated with psychotherapeutic gains, and thus, reconceptualizing change could improve symptoms of depression.

Detection of spatial aggregation of cases of cancer from data on patients and health centres contained in the Minimum Basic Data Set

The feasibility of the Minimum Basic Data Set (MBDS) as a tool in cancer research was explored monitoring its incidence through the detection of spatial clusters. Case-control studies based on MBDS and marked point process were carried out with the focus on the residence of patients from the Prince of Asturias University Hospital in Alcalá de Henares (Madrid, Spain). Patients older than 39 years with diagnoses of stomach, colorectal, lung, breast, prostate, bladder and kidney cancer, melanoma and haematological tumours were selected. Geocoding of the residence address of the cases was done by locating them in the continuous population roll provided by the Madrid Statistical Institute and extracting the coordinates. The geocoded control group was a random sample of 10 controls per case matched by frequency of age and sex. To assess case clusters, differences in Ripley K functions between cases and controls were calculated. The spatial location of clusters was explored by investigating spatial intensity and its ratio between cases and controls. Results suggest the existence of an aggregation of cancers with a common risk factor such as tobacco smoking (lung, bladder and kidney cancers). These clusters were located in an urban area with high socioeconomic deprivation. The feasibility of designing and carrying out case-control studies from the MBDS is shown and we conclude that MBDS can be a useful epidemiological tool for cancer surveillance and identification of risk factors through case-control spatial point process studies.

RNA-Seq reveals the existence of a CDKN1C-E2F1-TP53 axis that is altered in human T-cell lymphoblastic lymphomas

Background

Precursor T-cell lymphoblastic lymphomas (T-LBL) are rare aggressive hematological malignancies that mainly develop in children. As in other cancers, the loss of cell cycle control plays a prominent role in the pathogenesis in these malignancies that is primarily attributed to loss of CDKN2A (encoding protein p16INK4A). However, the impact of the deregulation of other genes such as CDKN1C, E2F1, and TP53 remains to be clarified. Interestingly, experiments in mouse models have proven that conditional T-cell specific deletion of Cdkn1c gene may induce a differentiation block at the DN3 to DN4 transition, and that the loss of this gene in the absence of Tp53 led to aggressive thymic lymphomas.

Results

In this manuscript, we demonstrated that the simultaneous deregulation of CDKN1C, E2F1, and TP53 genes by epigenetic mechanisms and/or the deregulation of specific microRNAs, together with additional impairing of TP53 function by the expression of dominant-negative isoforms are common features in primary human T-LBLs.

Conclusions

Previous experimental work in mice revealed that T-cell specific deletion of Cdkn1c accelerates lymphomagenesis in the absence of Tp53. If, as expected, the consequences of the deregulation of the CDKN1C-E2F1-TP53 axis were the same as those experimentally demonstrated in mouse models, the disruption of this axis might be useful to predict tumor aggressiveness, and to provide the basis towards the development of potential therapeutic strategiesin human T-LBL.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12885-018-4304-y) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Compositional analysis of topsoil metals and its associations with cancer mortality using spatial misaligned data

The presence of toxic metals in soil per se, and in soil impacted by mining, industry, agriculture and urbanisation in particular, is a major concern for both human health and ecotoxicology. The dual aim of this study was: to ascertain whether topsoil composition could influence the spatial distribution of mortality due to different types of cancer and to identify possible errors committed by epidemiological studies which analyse soil composition data as a closed number system. We conducted an ecological cancer mortality study, covering 861,440 cancer deaths (27 cancer sites) in 7917 Spanish mainland towns, from 1999 to 2008. Topsoil levels of Al, As, Cd, Cr, Cu, Fe, Mn, Ni, Pb and Zn were determined by ICP-MS at 13,317 sampling points. We transformed the topsoil data in two ways, i.e. log transformation and centred logratio transformation. Principal factor analysis was performed to obtain independent latent factors for the transformed variables. To estimate the effect on mortality of topsoil factor loadings, we fitted Besag, York and Mollié models embedded in geostatistical-spatial models. This model included soil sample locations and town centroids (non-aligned data), fitted using the integrated nested Laplace approximation (INLA) as a tool for Bayesian inference and stochastic partial differential equations (SPDE). All results were adjusted for socio-demographic variables. The results indicated that soil composition could have an influence on the spatial distribution and mortality patterns of cancer. The analysis adjusted for socio-demographic variables showed excess male mortality due to digestive system tumours in areas with soils containing higher Cd, Pb, Zn, Mn and Cu concentrations, bladder cancer in areas with soils containing higher Cd concentrations, and brain cancer in areas with soils containing As. In both sexes, cancer of oesophagus was associated with soils containing a higher lead content, while lung cancer was associated with soils containing a higher copper content. Stress should be laid on the importance of taking into account the compositional nature of the data in this type of analysis.

Residential radon and cancer mortality in Galicia, Spain

Residential radon exposure is a serious public health concern, and as such appears in the recommendations of European Code Against Cancer. The objective of this study was to assess the association between residential radon levels and mortality due to different types of cancer, using misaligned data analysis techniques. Mortality data (observed cases) for each of the 313 Galician municipalities were drawn from the records of the National Statistics Institute for the study period (1999-2008). Expected cases were computed using Galician mortality rates for 14 types of malignant tumors as reference, with a total of 56,385 deaths due to the tumors analyzed. The effect estimates of indoor radon (3371 sampling points) were adjusted for sociodemographic variables, altitude, and arsenic topsoil levels (1069 sampling points), using spatial/geostatistical models fitted with stochastic partial differential equations and integrated nested Laplace approximations. These models are capable of processing misaligned data. The results showed a statistical association between indoor radon and lung, stomach and brain cancer in women in Galicia. Apart from lung cancer (relative risk (RR)=1.09), in which a twofold increase in radon exposure led to a 9% rise in mortality, the association was particularly relevant in stomach (RR=1.17) and brain cancer (RR=1.28). Further analytical epidemiologic studies are needed to confirm these results, and an assessment should be made of the advisability of implementing interventions targeting such exposure in higher-risk areas.

Industrial pollution and cancer in Spain: An important public health issue

Cancer can be caused by exposure to air pollution released by industrial facilities. The European Pollutant Release and Transfer Register (E-PRTR) has made it possible to study exposure to industrial pollution. This study seeks to describe the industrial emissions in the vicinity of Spanish towns and their temporal changes, and review our experience studying industrial pollution and cancer. Data on industrial pollutant sources (2007-2010) were obtained from the E-PRTR registries. Population exposure was estimated by the distance from towns to industrial facilities. We calculated the amount of carcinogens emitted into the air in the proximity (<5km) of towns and show them in municipal maps. We summarized the most relevant results and conclusions reported by ecological E-PRTR-based on studies of cancer mortality and industrial pollution in Spain and the limitations and result interpretations of these types of studies. There are high amounts of carcinogen emissions in the proximity of towns in the southwest, east and north of the country and the total amount of emitted carcinogens is considerable (e.g. 20Mt of arsenic, 63Mt of chromium and 9Mt of cadmium). Although the emissions of some carcinogens in the proximity of certain towns were reduced during the study period, emissions of benzene, dioxins+furans and polychlorinated biphenyls rose. Moreover, the average population of towns lying within a 5km radius from emission sources of carcinogens included in the International Agency for Research on Cancer list of carcinogens was 9 million persons. On the other hand, the results of the reviewed studies suggest that those Spanish regions exposed to the pollution released by certain types of industrial facilities have around 17% cancer excess mortality when compared with those unexposed. Moreover, excess mortality is focused on digestive and respiratory tract cancers, leukemias, prostate, breast and ovarian cancers. Despite their limitations, ecological studies are a useful tool in environmental epidemiology, not only for proposing etiological hypotheses about the risk of living close to industrial pollutant sources, but also for providing data to account for situations of higher mortality in specific areas. Nevertheless, the reduction of emissions should be a goal, with special relevance given to establishing limits for known carcinogens and other toxic substances in the environs of population centers, as well as industry-specific emission limits.

Relational schemas as mediators of innovative moments in symptom improvement in major depression

OBJECTIVES

Innovative moments (IMs) are exceptions to the maladaptive framework of meaning that typically motivates clients to seek psychotherapy, and previous studies have shown that IMs are associated with psychotherapy outcomes. While IMs are exceptions that occur at the level of the therapeutic conversation, relational schemas are more stable patterns, and their increased flexibility may facilitate change during psychotherapy. With this in mind, we tested the hypothesis that IMs contribute to outcomes by improving the flexibility of relational schemas.

METHOD

The Core Conflictual Relationship Theme (CCRT) was used to assess relational schemas. IMs were evaluated using the Innovative Moments Coding System. The sample included 22 clients diagnosed with major depressive disorder. The flexibility of the three components of the CCRT (Wishes, responses of the self (RS), and responses of others (RO)) were tested as mediators between IMs and outcomes.

RESULTS

The flexibility of the RS was a mediator between IMs and outcomes, but Wishes and RO were not.

CONCLUSION

These findings align with previous research showing that RS is the component most open to change, whereas the other components seem less sensitive to change during brief therapy. Clinical or methodological significance of this article: This study shows the mediation role of relational schemas in the association between in-session events (innovative moments (IMs)) and the symptoms improvement. It contributes to the literature that emphasizes the importance of relational schemas in psychotherapy by using a mediation model, which has rarely been tested.

User profiles of an electronic mental health tool for ecological momentary assessment: MEmind

Ecological momentary assessment (EMA) is gaining importance in psychiatry. This article assesses the characteristics of patients who used a new electronic EMA tool: the MEmind Wellness Tracker. Over one year, 13811 adult outpatients in our Psychiatry Department were asked to use MEmind. We collected information about socio-demographic data, psychiatric diagnoses, illness severity, stressful life events and suicidal thoughts/behavior. We compared active users (N = 2838) and non-active users (N = 10,973) of MEmind and performed a Random Forest analysis to assess which variables could predict its use. Univariate analyses revealed that MEmind-users were younger (42.2 ± 13.5 years versus 48.5 ± 16.3 years; χ²  = 18.85; P < 0.001) and more frequently diagnosed with anxiety related disorders (57.9% versus 46.7%; χ²  = 105.92; P = 0.000) than non-active users. They were more likely to report thoughts about death and suicide (up to 24% of active users expressed wish for death) and had experienced more stressful life events than non-active users (57% versus 48.5%; χ²  = 64.65; P < 0.001). In the Random Forest analysis, 31 variables showed mean decrease accuracy values higher than zero with a 95% confidence interval (CI), including sex, age, suicidal thoughts, life threatening events and several diagnoses. In the light of these results, strategies to improve EMA and e-Mental Health adherence are discussed.

Association between heavy metal and metalloid levels in topsoil and cancer mortality in Spain

Spatio-temporal cancer mortality studies in Spain have revealed patterns for some tumours which display a distribution that is similar across the sexes and persists over time. Such characteristics would be common to tumours that shared risk factors, including the geochemical composition of the soil. The aim of this study was to assess the possible association between heavy metal and metalloid levels in topsoil (upper soil horizon) and cancer mortality in mainland Spain. Ecological cancer mortality study at a municipal level, covering 861,440 cancer deaths (27 different tumour locations) in 7917 Spanish mainland towns, from 1999 to 2008. The elements included in this analysis were Al, As, Cd, Cr, Cu, Fe, Mn, Ni, Pb and Zn. Topsoil levels (partial extraction) were determined by ICP-MS at 13,317 sampling points. For the analysis, the data on the topsoil composition have been transformed by the centred logratio (clr-transformation). Principal factor analysis was performed to obtain independent latent factors for the transformed variables. To estimate the effect of heavy metal levels in topsoil composition on mortality, we fitted Besag, York and Mollié models, which included each town's factor scores as the explanatory variable. Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation (INLA) was used as a tool for Bayesian inference. All results were adjusted for sociodemographic variables. The results showed an association between trace contents of heavy metals and metalloids in topsoil and mortality due to tumours of the digestive system in mainland Spain. This association was observed in both sexes, something that would support the hypothesis that the incorporation of heavy metals into the trophic chain might be playing a role in the aetiology of some types of cancer. Topsoil composition and the presence of potentially toxic elements in trace concentrations might be an additional component in the aetiology of some types of cancer, and go some way to determine the ensuing geographic differences in mortality in Spain. The results support the interest of inclusion of heavy metal levels in topsoil as a hypothesis in analytical epidemiological studies using biological markers of exposure to heavy metals and metalloids.

Risk Model for Colorectal Cancer in Spanish Population Using Environmental and Genetic Factors: Results from the MCC-Spain study

Colorectal cancer (CRC) screening of the average risk population is only indicated according to age. We aim to elaborate a model to stratify the risk of CRC by incorporating environmental data and single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNP). The MCC-Spain case-control study included 1336 CRC cases and 2744 controls. Subjects were interviewed on lifestyle factors, family and medical history. Twenty-one CRC susceptibility SNPs were genotyped. The environmental risk model, which included alcohol consumption, obesity, physical activity, red meat and vegetable consumption, and nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drug use, contributed to CRC with an average per factor OR of 1.36 (95% CI 1.27 to 1.45). Family history of CRC contributed an OR of 2.25 (95% CI 1.87 to 2.72), and each additional SNP contributed an OR of 1.07 (95% CI 1.04 to 1.10). The risk of subjects with more than 25 risk alleles (5^th quintile) was 82% higher (OR 1.82, 95% CI 1.11 to 2.98) than subjects with less than 19 alleles (1^st quintile). This risk model, with an AUROC curve of 0.63 (95% CI 0.60 to 0.66), could be useful to stratify individuals. Environmental factors had more weight than the genetic score, which should be considered to encourage patients to achieve a healthier lifestyle.

Chemical quality of tap water in Madrid: multicase control cancer study in Spain (MCC-Spain)

Chronic consumption of water, which contains contaminants, may give rise to adverse health effects. The Madrid region, covered by the population-based multicase-control (MCC-Spain) study, includes two drinking water supply areas. The different sources of the water, coupled together with the possible differences in water management, mean that there may be differences in drinking water quality. In the context of the MCC study, our aims were to describe contaminant concentrations in tap water drawn from various sampling points distributed around the region, assess these concentrations by reference to guideline values and study possible differences between the two supply areas. Tap water samples were collected from 34 sampling points in 7 towns in the Madrid region (19-29 April 2010), and 23 contaminants (metals, nitrates, disinfection by-product and Mutagen X levels) were quantified. We undertook a descriptive analysis of the contaminant concentrations in the water and compared them between the two water supply areas (Wilcoxon test). We created maps representing the distribution of the concentrations observed at water sampling points and assessed the correlations (Spearman's coefficient) between the different parameters measured. The concentrations of the contaminants were below guideline values. There were differences between the two supply areas in concentration of nitrates (p value = 0.0051) and certain disinfection by-products. While there were positive correlations (rho >0.70) among some disinfection by-products, no correlations were found in metals or nitrates. The differences in nitrate levels could be linked to differences in farming/industrial activities in the catchment areas and in disinfection by-products might be related to the existence of different treatment systems or bromine content in source waters.

Three narrative-based coding systems: Innovative moments, ambivalence and ambivalence resolution

Narrative and dialogical perspectives suggest that personal meaning systems' flexibility is an important resource for change in psychotherapy. Drawn from these theoretical backgrounds, a research program focused on the identification of Innovative Moments (IMs)-exceptions to the inflexible meaning systems present in psychopathological suffering-has been carried out. For this purpose, three process-oriented coding systems were developed: The IMs Coding System, the Ambivalence Coding System, and the Ambivalence Resolution Coding System. They allow, respectively, for the study of change, ambivalence, and ambivalence resolution in therapy. This paper presents these coding systems, the main findings that resulted from their application to different samples and therapeutic models, the main current and future lines of research, as well as the clinical applications of this research program.