Frailty index of deficit accumulation and falls: data from the Global Longitudinal Study of Osteoporosis in Women (GLOW) Hamilton cohort

Incorporating frailty to address the key challenges to geriatric economic evaluation

BACKGROUND

The multidimensional and dynamically complex process of ageing presents key challenges to economic evaluation of geriatric interventions, including: (1) accounting for indirect, long-term effects of a geriatric shock such as a fall; (2) incorporating a wide range of societal, non-health outcomes such as informal caregiver burden; and (3) accounting for heterogeneity within the demographic group. Measures of frailty aim to capture the multidimensional and syndromic nature of geriatric health. Using a case study of community-based falls prevention, this article explores how incorporating a multivariate frailty index in a decision model can help address the above key challenges.

METHODS

A conceptual structure of the relationship between geriatric shocks and frailty was developed. This included three key associations involving frailty: (A) the shock-frailty feedback loop; (B) the secondary effects of shock via frailty; and (C) association between frailty and intervention access. A case study of economic modelling of community-based falls prevention for older persons aged 60 + was used to show how parameterising these associations contributed to addressing the above three challenges. The English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA) was the main data source for parameterisation. A new 52-item multivariate frailty index was generated from ELSA. The main statistical methods were multivariate logistic and linear regressions. Estimated regression coefficients were inputted into a discrete individual simulation with annual cycles to calculate the continuous variable value or probability of binary event given individuals' characteristics.

RESULTS

All three conceptual associations, in their parameterised forms, contributed to addressing challenge (1). Specifically, by worsening the frailty progression, falls incidence in the model increased the risk of falling in subsequent cycles and indirectly impacted the trajectories and levels of EQ-5D-3 L, mortality risk, and comorbidity care costs. Intervention access was positively associated with frailty such that the greater access to falls prevention by frailer individuals dampened the falls-frailty feedback loop. Association (B) concerning the secondary effects of falls via frailty was central to addressing challenge (2). Using this association, the model was able to estimate how falls prevention generated via its impact on frailty paid and unpaid productivity gains, out-of-pocket care expenditure reduction, and informal caregiving cost reduction. For challenge (3), frailty captured the variations within demographic groups of key model outcomes including EQ-5D-3 L, QALY, and all-cause care costs. Frailty itself was shown to have a social gradient such that it mediated socially inequitable distributions of frailty-associated outcomes.

CONCLUSION

The frailty-based conceptual structure and parameterisation methods significantly improved upon the methods previously employed by falls prevention models to address the key challenges for geriatric economic evaluation. The conceptual structure is applicable to other geriatric and non-geriatric intervention areas and should inform the data selection and statistical methods to parameterise structurally valid economic models of geriatric interventions.

Exploring participant attrition in a longitudinal follow-up of older adults: the Global Longitudinal Study of Osteoporosis in Women (GLOW) Hamilton cohort

OBJECTIVE

We explored the magnitude of attrition, its pattern and risk factors for different forms of attrition in the cohort from the Global Longitudinal Study of Osteoporosis in Women.

DESIGN

Prospective cohort study.

SETTING

Participants were recruited from physician practices in Hamilton, Ontario.

PARTICIPANTS

Postmenopausal women aged ≥55 years who had consulted their primary care physician within the last 2 years.

OUTCOME MEASURES

Time to all-cause, non-death, death, preventable and non-preventable attrition.

RESULTS

All 3985 women enrolled in the study were included in the analyses. The mean age of the cohort was 69.4 (SD: 8.9) years. At the end of the follow-up, 30.2% (1206/3985) of the study participants had either died or were lost to follow-up. The pattern of attrition was monotone with most participants failing to return after a missed survey. The different types of attrition examined shared common risk factors including age, smoking and being frail but differed on factors such as educational level, race, hospitalisation, quality of life and being prefrail.

CONCLUSION

Attrition in this ageing cohort was selective to some participant characteristics. Minimising potential bias associated with such non-random attrition would require targeted measures to achieve maximum possible follow-rates among the high-risk groups identified and dealing with specific reasons for attrition in the study design and analysis.

Economic model of community-based falls prevention: seeking methodological solutions in evaluating the efficiency and equity of UK guideline recommendations

Background

Falls significantly harm geriatric health and impose substantial costs on care systems and wider society. Decision modelling can inform the commissioning of falls prevention but face methodological challenges, including: (1) capturing non-health outcomes and societal intervention costs; (2) considering heterogeneity and dynamic complexity; (3) considering theories of human behaviour and implementation; and (4) considering issues of equity. This study seeks methodological solutions in developing a credible economic model of community-based falls prevention for older persons (aged 60 +) to inform local falls prevention commissioning as recommended by UK guidelines.

Methods

A framework for conceptualising public health economic models was followed. Conceptualisation was conducted in Sheffield as a representative local health economy. Model parameterisation used publicly available data including English Longitudinal Study of Ageing and UK-based falls prevention trials. Key methodological developments in operationalising a discrete individual simulation model included: (1) incorporating societal outcomes including productivity, informal caregiving cost, and private care expenditure; (2) parameterising dynamic falls-frailty feedback loop whereby falls influence long-term outcomes via frailty progression; (3) incorporating three parallel prevention pathways with unique eligibility and implementation conditions; and (4) assessing equity impacts through distributional cost-effectiveness analysis (DCEA) and individual-level lifetime outcomes (e.g., number reaching ‘fair innings’). Guideline-recommended strategy (RC) was compared against usual care (UC). Probabilistic sensitivity, subgroup, and scenario analyses were conducted.

Results

RC had 93.4% probability of being cost-effective versus UC at cost-effectiveness threshold of £20,000 per QALY gained under 40-year societal cost-utility analysis. It increased productivity and reduced private expenditure and informal caregiving cost, but productivity gain and private expenditure reduction were outstripped by increases in intervention time opportunity costs and co-payments, respectively. RC reduced inequality delineated by socioeconomic status quartile. Gains in individual-level lifetime outcomes were small. Younger geriatric age groups can cross-subsidise their older peers for whom RC is cost-ineffective. Removing the falls-frailty feedback made RC no longer efficient or equitable versus UC.

Conclusion

Methodological advances addressed several key challenges associated with falls prevention modelling. RC appears cost-effective and equitable versus UC. However, further analyses should confirm whether RC is optimal versus other potential strategies and investigate feasibility issues including capacity implications.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12877-023-03916-z.

Systematic review and critical methodological appraisal of community-based falls prevention economic models

BACKGROUND

Falls impose significant health and economic burdens on community-dwelling older persons. Decision modelling can inform commissioning of alternative falls prevention strategies. Several methodological challenges arise when modelling public health interventions including community-based falls prevention. This study aims to conduct a systematic review (SR) to: systematically identify community-based falls prevention economic models; synthesise and critically appraise how the models handled key methodological challenges associated with public health modelling; and suggest areas for further methodological research.

METHODS

The SR followed the 2021 PRISMA reporting guideline and covered the period 2003-2020 and 12 academic databases and grey literature. The extracted methodological features of included models were synthesised by their relevance to the following challenges: (1) capturing non-health outcomes and societal intervention costs; (2) considering heterogeneity and dynamic complexity; (3) considering theories of human behaviour and implementation; and (4) considering equity issues. The critical appraisal assessed the prevalence of each feature across models, then appraised the methods used to incorporate the feature. The methodological strengths and limitations stated by the modellers were used as indicators of desirable modelling practice and scope for improvement, respectively. The methods were also compared against those suggested in the broader empirical and methodological literature. Areas of further methodological research were suggested based on appraisal results.

RESULTS

46 models were identified. Comprehensive incorporation of non-health outcomes and societal intervention costs was infrequent. The assessments of heterogeneity and dynamic complexity were limited; subgroup delineation was confined primarily to demographics and binary disease/physical status. Few models incorporated heterogeneity in intervention implementation level, efficacy and cost. Few dynamic variables other than age and falls history were incorporated to characterise the trajectories of falls risk and general health/frailty. Intervention sustainability was frequently based on assumptions; few models estimated the economic/health returns from improved implementation. Seven models incorporated ethnicity- and severity-based subgroups but did not estimate the equity-efficiency trade-offs. Sixteen methodological research suggestions were made.

CONCLUSION

Existing community-based falls prevention models contain methodological limitations spanning four challenge areas relevant for public health modelling. There is scope for further methodological research to inform the development of falls prevention and other public health models.

Risk Factors of Frailty in Patients with Distal Radius Fractures

Aim

The aim of this study was to determine risk factors for the incidence of frailty in patients with distal radius fractures (DRFs).

Methods

In total, 116 patients (mean age, 66.3 ± 7.7 years) with DRFs were recruited. The participants were categorized into two groups, “frail” and “non-frail,” according to the presence or absence of frailty, respectively. The areal bone mineral densities (aBMDs) of the total hip, femoral neck, and lumbar spine were measured using dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry. The participants’ levels of resilience, depression, anxiety, nutritional intake, oral health-related quality of life, and social support were evaluated by self-reported questionnaires. The participants’ grip strength, gait speed, number of teeth present in their oral cavities, circumference of their upper arms and calves, and serum levels of vitamin D were also assessed.

Results

The participants in the “frail” group seemed to have lower aBMDs and muscle function and mass than those in the “non-frail” group. There were significant differences in grip strength, calf circumference, gait speed, and aBMD of the total hip, femoral neck, and lumbar spine between the groups. There were also significant differences in the levels of resilience and depression between the groups. A multivariate logistic regression analyses demonstrated that levels of sarcopenia, malnutritional status, and aBMDs of the total hip and femoral neck had significant relationships with the development of frailty in patients with DRFs.

Conclusions

An interdisciplinary approach involving the management of osteoporosis, sarcopenia, oral health, social relationships, and psychological support would be required for the proper management of DRF patients in preventing frailty.

Economic models of community-based falls prevention: a systematic review with subsequent commissioning and methodological recommendations

Background

Falls impose significant health and economic burdens among older populations, making their prevention a priority. Health economic models can inform whether the falls prevention intervention represents a cost-effective use of resources and/or meet additional objectives such as reducing social inequities of health. This study aims to conduct a systematic review (SR) of community-based falls prevention economic models to: (i) systematically identify such models; (ii) synthesise and critically appraise modelling methods/results; and (iii) formulate methodological and commissioning recommendations.

Methods

The SR followed PRISMA 2021 guideline, covering the period 2003–2020, 12 academic databases and grey literature. A study was included if it: targeted community-dwelling persons aged 60 and over and/or aged 50–59 at high falls risk; evaluated intervention(s) designed to reduce falls or fall-related injuries; against any comparator(s); reported outcomes of economic evaluation; used decision modelling; and had English full text. Extracted data fields were grouped by: (A) model and evaluation overview; (B) falls epidemiology features; (C) falls prevention intervention features; and (D) evaluation methods and outcomes. A checklist for falls prevention economic evaluations was used to assess reporting/methodological quality. Extracted fields were narratively synthesised and critically appraised to inform methodological and commissioning recommendations. The SR protocol is registered in the Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews (CRD42021232147).

Results

Forty-six models were identified. The most prevalent issue according to the checklist was non-incorporation of all-cause care costs. Based on general population, lifetime models conducting cost-utility analyses, seven interventions produced favourable ICERs relative to no intervention under the cost-effectiveness threshold of US$41,900 (£30,000) per QALY gained; of these, results for (1) combined multifactorial and environmental intervention, (2) physical activity promotion for women, and (3) targeted vitamin D supplementation were from validated models. Decision-makers should explore the transferability and reaches of interventions in their local settings. There was some evidence that exercise and home modification exacerbate existing social inequities of health. Sixteen methodological recommendations were formulated.

Conclusion

There is significant methodological heterogeneity across falls prevention models. This SR’s appraisals of modelling methods should facilitate the conceptualisation of future falls prevention models. Its synthesis of evaluation outcomes, though limited to published evidence, could inform commissioning.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12913-022-07647-6.

Associations between Food Group Intake and Physical Frailty in Irish Community-Dwelling Older Adults

Background

Certain nutrients have shown protective effects against frailty, but less is known about the influence of individual food groups. Thus, this study aimed to investigate the relationship between the intake of different food groups and physical frailty in a cohort of community-dwelling older adults in Cork, Ireland.

Methods

One hundred and forty-two (n = 81 females, n = 61 males, age 74.1 ± 6.80 years) Irish community-dwelling volunteers aged ⩾65 years participated in this cross-sectional study. Dietary intake was assessed using a validated food frequency questionnaire (FFQ). Frailty was identified as having 3 or more of the following criteria: weight loss, exhaustion, weakness, slow walking speed and low physical activity. Relationships between intakes of food groups and frailty score were determined using Spearman's rank (and partial rank) correlations and ordinal logistic regression analysis.

Results

Negative Spearman's rank correlations were observed between frailty score and fish and fish products, fruit and vegetables and nuts and seeds, while positive correlations were found between frailty score and potatoes, fats and oils and sugars, preserves and snacks (P < .05). After adjustment for confounders, partial rank correlations remained statistically significant (P < .05) for all of the above dietary variables, with the exception of nuts and seeds (P > .05). Following ordinal logistic regression, the odds ratios (ORs) (95%CI) for frailty incidence for those in the lowest tertile of food group intake compared to the highest were; 3.04 (1.09-8.85) for fish and fish products, 4.34 (1.54-13.13) for fruit and vegetables, 1.52 (0.58-4.15) for nuts and seeds, 0.54 (0.19-1.51) for potatoes, 0.58 (0.17-1.95) for fats and oils and 0.49 (0.16-1.47) for sugars, preserves and snacks.

Conclusion

This study suggests that intakes of selected food groups are independently associated with frailty. These findings may hold significant relevance for the development of future frailty prevention strategies.

Closing the Osteoporosis Care Gap

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

This review outlines the scope of the problem in osteoporosis care and secondary fracture prevention and describes fracture prevention strategies, with a focus on the frail elderly.

RECENT FINDINGS

Despite heightened awareness among patients and clinicians alike and the availability of efficacious anti-osteoporosis medications, osteoporosis is still underdiagnosed and undertreated. However, the introduction of systematic risk assessment and secondary fracture prevention programmes has gained momentum, and evidence of success is accumulating. We possess today the knowledge required to close the osteoporosis care gap. The basic components in a secondary prevention model are similar in all health care settings, number one being a dedicated fracture coordinator, with anti-osteoporosis medications and multifaceted falls prevention as cornerstones, particularly in the frailest, both in the near and long-term. Initiation of structured care pathways including the key elements - identification, investigation, intervention and follow-up of adherence - demonstrably reduces re-fracture rates and is cost-effective.

Association of Frailty Status with Risk of Fall among Middle-Aged and Older Adults in China: A Nationally Representative Cohort Study

OBJECTIVES

To investigate the association between frailty status and risk of fall among middle-aged and older Chinese people.

DESIGN

A nationally representative prospective cohort study.

SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS

The study included 13,877 community-dwelling participants aged 45 years and above from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study.

METHODS

Frailty status was identified by the frailty index of health deficit accumulation. 34 variables at baseline were selected to calculate the frailty index. We excluded participants with incomplete information in construction of the frailty index at baseline. Falls were measured based on the respondents' self-report. We used a logistic regression model to estimate the associations between the frailty status and risk of fall, and subgroup analyses and sensitivity analyses were further conducted.

RESULTS

Of 13,877 participants, 2310 (16.6%) had falls during the observation period. 9027 (65.0%) participants were classified as robust, 4019 (29.0%) participants were classified as pre-frail, and 831 (6.0%) participants were classified as frail. Our results indicated per 0.01 increment in the frailty index was significantly associated with an increased risk of fall among middle-aged and older participants (OR: 1.52, 95%CI: 1.45-1.60). Such association was stronger when frailty was presented as a categorical variable, with an OR of 1.75 (95%CI: 1.59-1.93) for pre-frail and 3.04 (95%CI: 2.60-3.56) for frail. The area under the curve of the logistic model was 0.612 (95%CI: 0.600-0.625). Each 0.01 increment of the frailty index was association with a higher risk of fall among middle-aged (45-59years) participants (OR: 1.44, 95%CI: 1.29-1.60) than among older (≥60 years) participants (OR: 1.28, 95%CI: 1.16-1.41) at baseline (p=0.015 for interaction).

CONCLUSION

Frailty was significantly associated with an increased risk of fall among community-dwelling middle-aged and older people in China. It is necessary to screen and recognize frailty status to prevent falls among middle-aged and older adults.

Relationship Between Obesity and Risk of Major Osteoporotic Fracture in Postmenopausal Women: Taking Frailty Into Consideration

The role of obesity in fracture risk remains uncertain and inconclusive in postmenopausal women. Our study aimed to assess the relationship between obesity and risk of major osteoporotic fracture (MOF; ie, a clinical fracture of upper arm or shoulder, hip, spine, or wrist) in postmenopausal women, after taking frailty into consideration. We used the data from the Global Longitudinal Study of Osteoporosis in Women (GLOW) 5-year Hamilton cohort for this study. Frailty was measured by a frailty index (FI) of deficit accumulation at baseline. We incorporated an interaction term (obesity × FI) in the Cox proportional hazards regression model. We included 3985 women (mean age 69.4 years) for analyses, among which 29% were obese (n = 1118). There were 200 (5.02%) MOF events documented during follow-up: 48 (4.29%) in obese women and 152 (5.65%) in the nonobese group. Significant relationships between obesity, frailty, and MOF risk were found: hazard ratio (HR) = 0.72 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.67-0.78) for those with an FI of zero regarding MOF risk among obese women, and HR = 1.34 (95% CI 1.11-1.62) per SD increase in the FI among nonobese women. The interaction term was also significant: HR = 1.16 (95% CI 1.02-1.34) per SD increase in the FI among obese women. Increased HRs were found with higher FIs regarding the relationship between obesity and MOF risk, indicating increasing frailty attenuated the protective effect of obesity. For example, although the HR for obesity and MOF risk among those who were not frail (FI = 0) was 0.72 (95% CI 0.67-0.78), among those who were very frail (FI = 0.70), the HR was 0.91 (95% CI 0.85-0.98). To conclude, after taking frailty into consideration, obesity was significantly associated with decreased risk of MOF in postmenopausal women among those who were not frail; however, increasing frailty attenuated this protective effect of obesity. Evaluating frailty status may aid in understanding of the complex relationship between obesity and fracture risk. © 2020 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research (ASBMR).

Frailty and prediction of recurrent falls over 10 years in a community cohort of 75-year-old women

Background

Frailty captures the age-related declines in health leading to increased vulnerability, including falls which are commonplace in older women. The relationship between frailty and falls is complex, with one leading to the other in a vicious cycle.

Aims

This study addresses the gap in understanding how patterns of frailty and falls propensity interact, particularly in those who have not yet entered the falls-frailty cycle.

Methods

The Osteoporosis Risk Assessment cohort consists of 1044 community-dwelling women aged 75, with 10 years of follow-up. Investigations were performed and a frailty index constructed at baseline, 5 and 10 years. Falls were self-reported for each previous 12 months. Analysis was two-directional, firstly based on frailty status and second, based on falls status. Recurrent falls was the primary outcome.

Results

Baseline frailty was a significant predictor of recurrent falls after 5 and 10 years [(OR 2.55 (1.62–3.99); 3.04 (1.63–5.67)]. Among women who had no history of falls at age 75, frailty was a stronger predictor of falls at 5 years [OR 3.06 (1.59–5.89)] than among women who had previously fallen.

Discussion

Frailty is significantly associated with recurrent falls and most pronounced in those who are frail but have not yet fallen.

Conclusions

This suggests that frailty should be an integral part of falls-risk assessment to improve identification of those at risk of becoming fallers.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1007/s40520-019-01467-1) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Association between frailty and risk of fall among diabetic patients

BACKGROUND

Several epidemiological studies have demonstrated the risk factors for fall, while few studies investigated the association between frailty and risk of fall in diabetic patients aged ≥45 years.

METHODS

In this multicity observational study, participants with type 2 diabetes aged ≥45 years were enrolled. Frailty status was measured by a frailty index (FI) of deficit accumulation. We used multivariable regression models to examine the relationship between frailty and fall in diabetic patients, and further investigated the associations between frailty and fall in varied subgroups.

RESULTS

A total of 2049 participants with type 2 diabetes were identified in our study. Our results showed a per-s.d. and a per-0.01 increment of FI were associated with an increased risk of fall, with a fully adjusted OR of 1.89 (95% CI: 1.50, 2.38), 1.06 (95% CI: 1.04, 1.09), respectively. The effects were magnified when frailty was considered as dichotomous, with an OR of 3.08 (95% CI: 2.18, 4.34). In further subgroup analyses, we found that the females, the older, rural residents, individuals with no sitting toilet, people with poor balance performance and those in poor health status were susceptible to fall. Especially, for the risk of fall in the older, a per-s.d. increase of FI corresponded to an OR of 2.46 (95% CI: 1.68, 3.62). When frailty was regarded as a binary variable, the effect increased to 4.62 (95% CI: 2.54, 8.38) in the older subgroup.

CONCLUSION

Frailty was associated with a higher risk of fall in people with type 2 diabetes, and the effects were higher in vulnerable groups. This evidence suggested that more attention should be paid to vulnerable groups for fall prevention.

Development of Korean Frailty Index for Primary Care (KFI-PC) and Its Criterion Validity

BACKGROUND

The objective of this study was to develop and validate the Korean Frailty Index for Primary Care (KFI-PC) based on a comprehensive geriatric assessment.

METHODS

We developed a 54-item KFI-PC comprising 10 standard domains: cognitive status including delirium or dementia; mood; communication including vision, hearing, and speech; mobility; balance; bowel function; bladder function; ability to carry out activities of daily living; nutrition; and social resources. To test its validity, we applied KFI-PC to participants of the Korean Frailty Aging and Cohort Study (KFACS). We analyzed 1,242 participants (mean age, 77.9±3.9 years; 47.2% men) from the KFACS who visited 10 study centers in 2018, after excluding 32 participants with missing data required to assess Fried's physical frailty phenotype.

RESULTS

The mean KFI-PC score was 0.17±0.08, ranging from 0.02 to 0.52. The median KFI-PC score was higher in women than in men, and there was a trend toward higher values in older age groups. The prevalence of frailty when applying a generally used frailty index cutoff point of >0.25 was 17.5% in the whole study sample. As a construct validation of KFI-PC, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for Fried's physical frailty was 0.921, and the optimal cutoff value to predict frailty phenotype was 0.23. The KFI-PC score also correlated well with physical, cognitive, and psychological functions; nutritional status; disability in activities of daily living; and instrumental activities of daily living. The Cronbach's alpha coefficient of the 54 total items was 0.737.

CONCLUSION

We developed KFI-PC with 53 deficits, including comprehensive geriatric assessment components, and demonstrated the acceptable construct validity and internal consistency of KFI-PC.

Depression but not frailty contributed to a higher risk for all-cause hospitalizations in male older veterans

INTRODUCTION

Frailty is a state of vulnerability to stressors resulting in higher morbidity, mortality, and utilization in older adults. Depression and frailty often coexist, suggesting a bidirectional relationship that may increase the effects of each individual condition on clinical outcomes and health-care utilization in older adults.

OBJECTIVE

To determine the effects of concurrent frailty and depression on all-cause hospitalizations.

METHODS/DESIGN

Prospective cohort study, conducted at a Veterans Affairs (VA) Medical Center. The participants were male, community-dwelling veterans 65 years and older. From 4 January through 30 December 2016, a 46-item frailty index was generated from data obtained from the VA electronic health record. Trained staff conducted in-depth reviews of electronic health records ascertaining depression status. Patients were followed through 31 December 2017 for all-cause hospitalizations following the initial assessment of frailty. After adjusting for covariates, the association of frailty and depression with all-cause hospitalizations was determined with the Andersen-Gill model, accounting for repeated hospitalizations.

RESULTS

Five hundred fifty-three male patients were part of the study, mean age 76.3 (SD = 8.2) years. One hundred eighty-one patients (32.7%) had depression diagnoses. During a median follow-up period of 530 days (interquartile range [IQR] = 245), 123 patients (22.2%) had 240 hospitalizations. Frailty status was not associated with future hospitalizations (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] = 1.61; 95% CI, 95-2.74; P > .05). Depression was associated with higher all-cause hospitalizations (adjusted HR = 1.57; 95% CI, 1.09-2.26); P = .0157).

CONCLUSIONS

Depression but not frailty was significantly associated with higher rates of all-cause hospitalization. Implementing interventions that target older adults with both frailty and depression may reduce the burden of both conditions and reduce hospitalizations.

The accumulation of deficits approach to describe frailty

The advancing age of the participants of the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC)-Potsdam study was the incentive to investigate frailty as a major parameter of ageing. The aim of this study was to develop a multidimensional tool to measure frailty in an ageing, free-living study population. The "accumulation of deficits approach" was used to develop a frailty index (FI) to characterize a sub-sample (N = 815) of the EPIC-Potsdam (EPIC-P) study population regarding the aging phenomenon. The EPIC-P frailty index (EPIC-P-FI) included 32 variables from the following domains: health, physical ability, psychosocial and physiological aspects. P-values were calculated for the linear trend between sociodemographic and life style variables and the EPIC-P-FI was calculated using regression analysis adjusted for age. The relationship between the EPIC-P-FI and age was investigated using fractional polynomials. Some characteristics such as age, education, time spent watching TV, cycling and a biomarker of inflammation (C-reactive protein) were associated with frailty in men and women. Interestingly, living alone, having no partner and smoking status were only associated with frailty in men, and alcohol use and physical fitness (VO2max) only in women. The generated, multidimensional FI, adapted to the EPIC-P study, showed that this cohort is a valuable source for further exploration of factors that promote healthy ageing.

The Co-Occurrence Of Frailty (Accumulation Of Functional Deficits) And Depressive Symptoms, And Its Effect On Mortality In Older Adults: A Longitudinal Study

Purpose

The co-occurrence of frailty and depression in late life, the possibility for symptom reversal, their reciprocal relationship, and the effects on mortality have rarely been investigated. We aimed to examine the co-occurrence of frailty and depressive symptoms in late life, the possibility for symptom reversal, their reciprocal relationship, and the effects on mortality using all the information from a longitudinal study.

Patients and methods

We used the Taiwan Longitudinal Study of Aging (TLSA) for this study. TLSA was initiated in 1989 and followed periodically. We included participants from 1989 to 2007, who had data on frailty and depressive symptoms. Frailty was assessed by accumulation of functional deficits in 6 dimensions including disease status, sensory dysfunction, balance, functional limitations, health risk behaviors, and life satisfaction. Depressive symptoms were measured with the Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale (CES-D). A multistate model with interval censoring was used to examine the transition between states of frailty with or without depressive symptoms, and finally to death. A mixed model was used to examine the relationships between frailty and depressive symptoms.

Results

The coexistence of frailty and depressive symptoms was associated with higher mortality. Individuals with depressive symptom had a lower probability of reversal to a better state. Previous depression score predicted current frailty, but the coefficient was smaller than that of previous frailty. Previous frailty predicted current depression score, and the coefficient was stronger than that of previous depression.

Conclusion

Depressive symptoms increased the mortality and decreased the probability of reversal in the frail older adults.

The Clinical Potential of Frailty Indicators on Identifying Recurrent Fallers in the Community: The Mr. Os and Ms. OS Cohort Study in Hong Kong

OBJECTIVES

To compare the clinical value of 3 frailty indicators in a screening pathway for identifying older men and women who are at risk of falls.

DESIGN

A prospective cohort study.

SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS

Four thousand Chinese adults (2000 men) aged ≥65 years were recruited from the community in Hong Kong.

METHODS

The Cardiovascular Health Study Criteria, the FRAIL scale, and the Study for Osteoporosis and Fracture Criteria (SOF) were included for evaluation. Fall history was used as a comparative predictor. Recurrent falls during the second year after baseline was the primary outcome. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was used to evaluate the ability of the frailty indicators and fall history to predict recurrent falls. Independent predictors identified in logistic regression were put in the Classification and Regression Tree (CART) analysis to evaluate their performance in screening high-risk fallers.

RESULTS

Fall history predicts recurrent falls in both men and women (AUC: men = 0.681; women = 0.645) better than all frailty indicators (AUC ≤ 0.641). After adjusting for fall history, only FRAIL (AUC = 0.676) and SOF (AUC = 0.673) remained as significant predictors for women whereas no frailty indicator remained significant in men. FRAIL could classify older women into 2 groups with distinct chances of being a recurrent faller in people with no fall history (3.8% vs 7.5%), a single fall history (9.5% vs 37.5%), and history of recurrent falls (16.0% vs 30.8%). SOF has limited ability in identifying recurrent fallers in the group of older adults with a single fall history (no fall history: 3.9% vs 8.6%; single fall history: 10.2% vs 10.9%; history of recurrent falls: 16.5% vs 20.6%).

CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS

SOF and FRAIL could provide some additional prediction value to fall history in older women but not men. FRAIL could be clinically useful in identifying older women at risk of recurrent falls, especially in those with a single fall history.

Progression of frailty and prevalence of osteoporosis in a community cohort of older women-a 10-year longitudinal study

In community dwelling, 75-year-old women followed 10 years, a frailty index was created at each of three visits. Frailty score increased by ~ 6-7% annually. A higher frailty score was equivalent to being 5-10 years chronologically older. Frailty was associated with low bone density and higher risk of dying.

INTRODUCTION

To understand the distribution of frailty among a population-based sample of older community-dwelling women, progression over 10 years, and association with mortality and osteoporosis.

METHODS

The study is performed in a cohort designed to investigate osteoporosis. The OPRA cohort consists of 75-year-old women, n = 1044 at baseline, and follow-up at age 80 and 85. A frailty index (scored from 0.0-1.0) based on deficits in health across multiple domains was created at all time-points; outcomes were mortality up to 15 years and femoral neck bone density.

RESULTS

At baseline, the proportion least frail, i.e., most robust (FI 0.0-0.1) constituted 48%, dropping to 25 and 14% at age 80 and 85. On average, over 10 years, the annual linear frailty score progression was approximately 6-7%. Among the least frail, 11% remained robust over 10 years. A higher frailty score was equivalent to being 5 to 10 years older. Mortality was substantially higher in the highest quartile compared to the lowest based on baseline frailty score; after 10 years, 48.7% had died vs 17.2% (p = 1.7 × 10^-14). Mortality risk over the first 5 years was highest in the frailest (Q4 vs Q1; HR_unadj 3.26 [1.86-5.73]; p < 0.001) and continued to be elevated at 10 years (HR_unadj 3.58 [2.55-5.03]; p < 0.001). Frailty was associated with BMD after adjusting for BMI (overall p = 0.006; Q1 vs Q4 p = 0.003).

CONCLUSIONS

The frailty index was highly predictive of mortality showing a threefold increased risk of death in the frailest both in a shorter and longer perspective. Only one in ten older women escaped progression after 10 years. Frailty and osteoporosis were associated.

Relationship between the FRAX index and physical and cognitive functioning in older people

OBJECTIVE

To assess the relationship between the FRAX index and the Barthel index/MiniMental State Examination in older people.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Observational descriptive study. Demographic data, comorbidity, dependency and cognitive state, and risk of osteoporotic fracture were collected.

RESULTS

A total of 375 patients were included (60% female) Patients with a low-risk FRAX for hip fractures had a higher Mini-mental (25, 95% CI = 24-27 vs. 22, 95% = 21 to 23, p = .0001), a higher Barthel index (88, 95% CI = 84-93 vs 72, 69 to 76, p = .0001) without differences in the Charlson index. Bivariate analysis showed an inverse association between FRAX and scales but logistic regression showed only female sex (OR 4.4, 95% CI = 2.6-7.6) and the non-dependent Barthel index (OR = 0.104, 95% CI = 0.014-0.792) remained significant and. Barthel index/Mini-mental constructed a significant model capable of predicting a risk of hip fracture of >3% measured by the FRAX index, with an area under the curve of 0.76 (95% CI = 0.7-0.81).

CONCLUSIONS

The FRAX index is related to other markers of geriatric assessment and the association between these variables can predict a risk of hip fracture of >3% measured by the FRAX index. Key messages Geriatric assessment indexes may be as important as the FRAX index, which is based on clinical risk factors, in predicting the fracture risk in older patient.

Is frailty a stable predictor of mortality across time? Evidence from the Cognitive Function and Ageing Studies

Background

age-specific mortality reduction has been accompanied by a decrease in the prevalence of some diseases and an increase in others. Whether populations are becoming ‘healthier’ depends on which aspect of health is being considered. Frailty has been proposed as an integrative measure to quantify health status.

Objective

to investigate changes in the near-term lethality of frailty before and after a 20-year interval using the frailty index (FI), a summary of age-related health deficit accumulation.

Design

baseline data from the Cognitive Function and Ageing Studies (CFAS) in 1991 (n = 7,635) and 2011 (n = 7,762).

Setting

three geographically distinct UK centres (Newcastle, Cambridgeshire and Nottingham).

Subjects

individuals aged 65 and over (both institutionalised and community-living).

Methods

a 30-item frailty score was used, which includes morbidities, risk factors and subjective measures of disability. Missing items were imputed using multiple imputations by chained equations. Binomial regression was used to investigate the relationship between frailty, age, sex and cohort. Two-year mortality was modelled using logistic regression.

Results

mean frailty was slightly higher in CFAS II (0.19, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.19–0.20) than CFAS I (0.18, 95% CI: 0.17–0.18). Two-year mortality in CFAS I was higher than in CFAS II (odds ratio (OR) = 1.16, 95% CI: 1.03–1.30). The association between frailty and 2-year mortality was non-linear with an OR of ~1.6 for each 0.10 increment in the FI.

Conclusions

the relationship between frailty and mortality did not significantly differ across the studies. Severe frailty as an indicator of mortality is shown to be a stable construct.

Enhancing research publications and advancing scientific writing in health research collaborations: sharing lessons learnt from the trenches

BACKGROUND

Disseminating research protocols, processes, methods or findings via peer-reviewed publications has substantive merits and benefits to various stakeholders.

PURPOSE

In this article, we share strategies to enhance research publication contents (ie, what to write about) and to facilitate scientific writing (ie, how to write) in health research collaborations.

METHODS

Empirical experience sharing.

RESULTS

To enhance research publication contents, we encourage identifying appropriate opportunities for publications, publishing protocols ahead of results papers, seeking publications related to methodological issues, considering justified secondary analyses, and sharing academic process or experience. To advance writing, we suggest setting up scientific writing as a goal, seeking an appropriate mentorship, making full use of scientific meetings and presentations, taking some necessary formal training in areas such as effective communication and time and stress management, and embracing the iterative process of writing.

CONCLUSION

All the strategies we share are dependent upon each other; and they advocate gradual academic accomplishments through study and training in a "success-breeds-success" way. It is expected that the foregoing shared strategies in this paper, together with other previous guidance articles, can assist one with enhancing research publications, and eventually one's academic success in health research collaborations.

Derivation of a frailty index from the resident assessment instrument - home care adapted for Switzerland: a study based on retrospective data analysis

BACKGROUND

The screening of frail individuals at risk for functional health decline and adverse health outcomes lies in the evolving agenda of home care providers. Such a screening can be based on a frailty index (FI) derived from data collected with interRAI instruments used in clinical routines to define care plans. The objective of this study was to assess the feasibility of deriving an FI from the Resident Assessment Instrument - Home Care adapted for Switzerland (Swiss RAI-HC).

METHODS

Data were collected by the Geneva Institution for Homecare and Assistance in clinical routines. The sample consisted of 3714 individuals aged 65 or older (67.7% females) who had each received a Swiss RAI-HC upon admission in the year of 2015. The FI was derived from 52 variables identified and scored according to published guidelines. Adverse health outcomes were either assessed during follow-up assessments (falls, hospitalizations) or documented from administrative records (mortality).

RESULTS

The results showed that the FI was distributed normally, with a mean of 0.24 (± 0.13), an interquartile range of 0.16, and values of 0.04 at percentile 1 and 0.63 at percentile 99. The effect of Age was significant (R² = 0.011) with a slope of β = 0.002, 95% CI = [0.001-0.002]. Sex as well as the Age × Sex interaction were not significant. The FI predicted deaths (OR = 9.99, 95% CI = [3.20-29.99]), hospitalizations (OR = 3.40, 95% CI = [1.78-6.32]), and falls (OR = 5.00, 95% CI = [2.68-9.38]).

CONCLUSIONS

The results support the feasibility of an FI derivation from the Swiss RAI-HC, hence replicating previous demonstrations based on interRAI instruments. The results also replicated findings showing that the FI is a good predictor of adverse health outcomes. Yet, the results suggest that home care recipients demonstrate a frailty pattern different from the one reported in community dwellers but comparable to clinical samples. Further work is needed to assess the characteristics of the proposed index in community-dwelling, non-clinical samples for comparability with the existing literature and external validation TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT03139162 . Retrospectively registered May 2, 2017.

A multidisciplinary approach to improve the quality of care for patients with fragility fractures

BACKGROUND

Fragility fractures have become a worldwide epidemic associated with significant morbidity and mortality. As the world population ages, the number of patients that experience these fractures is also expected to rise. A multidisciplinary team was assembled that was coordinated by the Acute Inpatient Medical Service and included orthopedic surgeons, geriatricians, anesthesiologists, cardiologists, nurses, trauma surgeons, emergency medicine physicians, physiatrists, and physical therapists. This team was formed with the expectation that geriatric fragility fracture complications, specifically hip fractures, could be reduced by identifying and implementing best practices using guidelines from the American Academy of Orthopedic Surgery and those from the International Geriatric Fracture Society.

METHODS

We implemented a clinical pathway with a standardized approach with reduction in care variation and followed that by instituting performance improvement measures. The difference in outcome measurements as reported by TQIP for the year prior to implementation and the year following creation of the fragility fracture program was evaluated.

RESULTS

Benchmarking data demonstrated improved outcomes for patients with fragility fractures. Length of stay was significantly below national average, mortality remained below national average, and complication rates for UTIs and pressure ulcers were both reduced from 2014 to 2015 and below the national average.

CONCLUSION

The clinical pathway we adopted for the care of patients with fragility fractures has resulted in reduced lengths of stay, below average mortality, and improved discharge disposition.

A Comparison of Peripheral Imaging Technologies for Bone and Muscle Quantification: a Mixed Methods Clinical Review

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Bone and muscle peripheral imaging technologies are reviewed for their association with fractures and frailty. A narrative systematized review was conducted for bone and muscle parameters from each imaging technique. In addition, meta-analyses were performed across all bone quality parameters.

RECENT FINDINGS

The current body of evidence for bone quality's association with fractures is strong for (high-resolution) peripheral quantitative computed tomography (pQCT), with trabecular separation (Tb.Sp) and integral volumetric bone mineral density (vBMD) reporting consistently large associations with various fracture types across studies. Muscle has recently been linked to fractures and frailty, but the quality of evidence remains weaker from studies of small sample sizes. It is increasingly apparent that musculoskeletal tissues have a complex relationship with interrelated clinical endpoints such as fractures and frailty. Future studies must concurrently address these relationships in order to decipher the relative importance of one causal pathway from another.

Mobility, balance and frailty in community-dwelling older adults: What is the best 1-year predictor of falls?

AIM

The present study aimed, first, to compare the ability to predict falls over 12 months for three measures - mobility, balance and frailty. Second, among the three domains of frailty - physical, psychological and social - we investigated what is the strongest predictor of falls.

METHODS

A total of 192 community-dwelling older adults (age 73.0 ± 6.2 years; 62% women) were involved in this longitudinal study. The Timed Up and Go (TUG) test, One Leg Standing (OLS) test and the Tilburg Frailty Indicator (TFI) were respectively used to measure mobility, balance and frailty. The TFI is a questionnaire based on a multidimensional conceptualization of frailty consisting of 15 items in three domains (physical, psychological and social). Falls were self-reported during the 12-month follow up. Logistic regression models, adjusted for interesting variables, were carried out to predict the risk of falls.

RESULTS

History of falls and chronic conditions were the indicators more strongly related with falls over 12 months. The TFI resulted as a stronger predictor of falls when compared with the TUG and OLS tests. The explained variance of the three models was 31.2%, 22.4% and 22.2%, respectively. The TFI was significantly associated with falls (P < 0.001), whereas the TUG and the OLS were not (P > 0.05). Among the three frailty domains, physical (P < 0.001) and psychological (P = 0.041) domains were significant predictors of falls.

CONCLUSIONS

The findings showed that the TFI might be an effective tool for predicting falls at 12 months in aged populations, probably because it is able to capture the multifactorial facets that can lead to falls. Geriatr Gerontol Int 2017; 17: 1463-1469.

Framing moving and handling as a complex healthcare intervention within the acute care of older people with osteoporosis: a qualitative study

AIMS AND OBJECTIVES

To investigate healthcare staff's views and experiences of caring for older hospitalised adults (aged 60+) with osteoporosis focusing on moving and handling. Specific objectives were to explore the composition of manual handling risk assessments and interventions in osteoporosis.

BACKGROUND

Osteoporosis is a skeletal disease that reduces bone density and causes increased fracture risk. Incidence rises with age and osteoporotic fractures cause increased morbidity and mortality. It is a major global health problem. In the UK older hospitalised adults are normally screened for falls risk but not necessarily for osteoporosis. As presentation of osteoporosis is normally silent until fractures are evident, it is frequently undiagnosed. Healthcare staff's knowledge of osteoporosis is often suboptimal and specific manual handling implications are under-researched.

DESIGN

An exploratory qualitative content analysis research design informed by critical realism.

METHODS

The purposive sample comprised 26 nursing and allied health professionals. Semi-structured interviews addressed topics including knowledge of osteoporosis, implications for acute care, moving and handling and clinical guidelines. Qualitative content data analysis was used.

RESULTS

Awareness of osteoporosis prevalence in older populations varies and implications for nursing are indistinct to nonspecialists. In-hospital fractures potentially linked to suboptimal moving and handling seemed rare, but prospective studies are needed. Categories of 'Understanding moving and handling as routine care or as a healthcare intervention', with further categories 'healthcare practitioners' capacities and capabilities for dealing with people with osteoporosis' and 'the structural and organisational context for moving and handling' are reported alongside safety, frailty and dependency dimensions.

CONCLUSIONS

This study informs moving and handling in higher risk groups such as osteoporosis. Clinical knowledge/expertise is required when adapting generic manual handling guidelines to specific patients/contexts. Patients' experiences of moving and handling have received limited attention.

RELEVANCE TO CLINICAL PRACTICE

Increased focus on musculoskeletal conditions and moving and handling implications is required.

Association of CRP gene polymorphisms with CRP levels, frailty and co-morbidity in an elderly Chinese population: results from RuLAS

OBJECTIVES

to examine the associations of two common CRP gene polymorphisms with CRP levels, frailty and co-morbidity in an elderly Chinese population.

DESIGN

a population-based cohort study.

SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS

we obtained data on 1,723 elderly participants aged 70-84 from the ageing arm of the Rugao Longevity and Ageing study (RuLAS), a population-based observational cohort study conducted in Rugao, Jiangsu province, China.

MEASUREMENTS

the genotyping of two common CRP gene polymorphisms (rs1205 and rs3093059) was performed. Items concerning the frailty index and co-morbidity were collected.

RESULTS

the mean age of the study population was 75.3 ± 3.9 years, and 53.5% (n = 922) were women. The minor allele frequencies of rs1205 and rs3093059 were 42.4% (C allele) and 16.9% (C allele), respectively. The polymorphisms rs1205 and rs3093059 were significantly associated with CRP levels (β = 0.113 and 0.222, all P < 0.001). Non-significant association between rs1205 and rs3093059 and frailty, as well as between rs3093059 and co-morbidity was observed. However, SNP rs1205 CC genotype had an increased odds of co-morbidity compared with the TT genotype (odds ratio (OR):1.53; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.16-2.02). Each additional copy of the C allele of SNP rs1205 was associated with 1.23 times (95% CI: 1.07-1.41) odds of co-morbidity. The significance remained after controlling for covariates such as education level, etc.

CONCLUSIONS

among elderly Chinese individuals, two CRP gene polymorphisms were significantly associated with CRP levels. However, none of them was associated with frailty. The preliminary findings warrant further validations.

Frailty Change and Major Osteoporotic Fracture in the Elderly: Data from the Global Longitudinal Study of Osteoporosis in Women 3-Year Hamilton Cohort

Investigating the cumulative rate of deficits and the change of a frailty index (FI) chronologically is helpful in clinical and research settings in the elderly. However, limited evidence for the change of frailty before and after some nonfatal adverse health event such as a major osteoporotic fracture (MOF) is available. Data from the Global Longitudinal Study of Osteoporosis in Women 3-Year Hamilton cohort were used in this study. The changes of FI before and after onset of MOF were compared between the women with and without incident MOF. We also evaluated the relationship between risk of MOF, falls, and death and the change of FI and the absolute FI measures. There were 3985 women included in this study (mean age 69.4 years). The change of FI was significantly larger in the women with MOF than those without MOF at year 1 (0.085 versus 0.067, p = 0.036) and year 2 (0.080 versus 0.052, p = 0.042) post-baseline. The FI change was not significantly related with risk of MOF independently of age. However, the absolute FI measures were significantly associated with increased risk of MOF, falls, and death independently of age. In summary, the increase of the FI is significantly larger in the elderly women experiencing a MOF than their peer controls, indicating their worsening frailty and greater deficit accumulation after a MOF. Measures of the FI change may aid in the understanding of cumulative aging nature in the elderly and serve as an instrument for intervention planning and assessment.

Frailty as a predictor of hospitalisation among community-dwelling older people: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Owing to detrimental hazards and substantial healthcare burden and costs, hospitalisation of older people has become a major focus. Frailty has increasingly been recognised as an important predictor of hospitalisation. This study aims to identify studies on physical frailty as a predictor of hospitalisation risks and to pool the risk estimates among community-dwelling older people.

METHODS

A systematic literature search was performed in August 2015 using five databases: EMBASE, MEDLINE, CINAHL, PsycINFO and the Cochrane Library for prospective studies examining physical frailty as a predictor of hospitalisation published in 2000 or later. OR and HR were combined to synthesise pooled effect measures using fixed-effects models. The included studies were assessed for heterogeneity, methodological quality and publication bias. Subgroup analysis and meta-regression analysis were conducted to examine study characteristics in relation to the hospitalisation risks.

RESULTS

Of the 4620 studies identified by the systematic review, 13 studies with average follow-up period of 3.1 years were selected. Frailty and prefrailty were significantly associated with higher hospitalisation risks among 10 studies with OR (pooled OR=1.90, 95% CI 1.74-2.07, p<0.00001; pooled OR=1.26, 95% CI 1.18-1.33, p<0.00001, respectively) and 3 studies with HR (pooled HR=1.30, 95% CI 1.12-1.52, p=0.0007; pooled HR=1.13, 95% CI 1.04-1.24, p=0.005, respectively). Heterogeneity was low to moderate. No publication bias was detected. The studies with older populations and unadjusted outcome measures were associated with higher hospitalisation risks in the subgroup analysis.

CONCLUSIONS

This systematic review and meta-analysis demonstrated physical frailty is a significant predictor of hospitalisation among community-dwelling older people. Hospitalisation can potentially be reduced by treating or preventing frailty.

Frailty Index and Its Relation to Falls and Overnight Hospitalizations in Elderly Chinese People: A Population-based Study

OBJECTIVES

To investigate current status of frailty index (FI) defined as deficit accumulation and its relations to falls and overnight hospitalizations in an elderly Chinese population.

DESIGN

A cross-sectional cohort study.

SETTING

All of the 31 valiages in Jiang'an township, a typical medium-sized township in Rugao city, China.

PARTICIPANTS

Overall 1773 participants aged 70-84 years were randomly recruited.

MEASUREMENTS

A FI including symptoms, activities of daily living, co-morbidities, cognitive and psychological function was constructed using 45 health deficits.

RESULTS

The mean of FI was 0.14 in men and 0.19 in women. According to a usual FI cut-point of 0.25, 8.2% of men and 23.2% of women were classified as frail. Literate participants had lower levels of FI than their illiterate counterpart. In men, the FI was positively related to age (r = 0.186, p<.001), with a mean rate of deficit accumulation of 0.032 (on a log scale) per year. Each increment of 0.01 on the FI was associated with significantly increased risks of falls and overnight hospitalizations, with odds ratios of 1.05 (95% CI: 1.03, 1.07) and 1.05 (95% CI: 1.03, 1.08). Similarly, the aforementioned associations were observed in women. Education level moderated the associations of FI with falls in men and women.

CONCLUSION

Elderly Chinese women were more frail than men. The FI significantly increased with chronological age and was significantly associated with falls and overnight hospitalizations, and education level may play an important role. This study provides preliminary but crucial evidences for future researches on frailty in China.

Frailty predicts short-term incidence of future falls among British community-dwelling older people: a prospective cohort study nested within a randomised controlled trial

Background

Although population-based studies have shown frailty predicted future falls, their follow-up periods were one year or longer and short-term fall risks associated with frailty are unknown.

Methods

A prospective cohort study nested within a randomised controlled trial was conducted to examine associations between frailty and short-term incident future falls among community-dwelling older people. Two hundred forty eight community-dwelling people > =65 years without history of > =three falls and allocated to a usual care arm of exercise intervention trial were prospectively monitored for falls over 24 weeks. Frailty index (FI) was constructed from 40 deficits at baseline. The future fall risks according to frailty status was examined using logistic regression models.

Results

Of 248 participants, 46 were classified as frail and 57 had one or more falls during follow-up. Both each 0.01 increase in FI and frailty defined as FI > =0.25 were significantly associated with higher risks of future falls in multivariate logistic regression models adjusted for age, gender and history of two falls in the previous year (odds ratio (OR) = 1.05, 95 % confidence interval (95 % CI) = 1.02–1.07, p < 0.001; OR = 3.04, 95 % CI = 1.53–6.02, p = 0.001, respectively). Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis showed FI predicted future falls with fair accuracy with area under ROC curve of 0.62 (95 % CI = 0.53–0.71, p < 0.01).

Conclusions

Frailty was a significant and independent predictor of short-term future falls among community-dwelling older people who had volunteered for a physical activity study. It is important for healthcare practitioners to recognise frailty as a risk factor of imminent future falling even in older people who appear to be ageing well.

Comparison between frailty index of deficit accumulation and fracture risk assessment tool (FRAX) in prediction of risk of fractures

A frailty index (FI) of deficit accumulation could quantify and predict the risk of fractures based on the degree of frailty in the elderly. We aimed to compare the predictive powers between the FI and the fracture risk assessment tool (FRAX) in predicting risk of major osteoporotic fracture (hip, upper arm or shoulder, spine, or wrist) and hip fracture, using the data from the Global Longitudinal Study of Osteoporosis in Women (GLOW) 3-year Hamilton cohort. There were 3985 women included in the study, with the mean age of 69.4 years (standard deviation [SD] = 8.89). During the follow-up, there were 149 (3.98%) incident major osteoporotic fractures and 18 (0.48%) hip fractures reported. The FRAX and FI were significantly related to each other. Both FRAX and FI significantly predicted risk of major osteoporotic fracture, with a hazard ratio (HR) of 1.03 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.02-1.05) and 1.02 (95% CI: 1.01-1.04) for per-0.01 increment for the FRAX and FI respectively. The HRs were 1.37 (95% CI: 1.19-1.58) and 1.26 (95% CI: 1.12-1.42) for an increase of per-0.10 (approximately one SD) in the FRAX and FI respectively. Similar discriminative ability of the models was found: c-index = 0.62 for the FRAX and c-index = 0.61 for the FI. When cut-points were chosen to trichotomize participants into low-risk, medium-risk and high-risk groups, a significant increase in fracture risk was found in the high-risk group (HR = 2.04, 95% CI: 1.36-3.07) but not in the medium-risk group (HR = 1.23, 95% CI: 0.82-1.84) compared with the low-risk women for the FI, while for FRAX the medium-risk (HR = 2.00, 95% CI: 1.09-3.68) and high-risk groups (HR = 2.61, 95% CI: 1.48-4.58) predicted risk of major osteoporotic fracture significantly only when survival time exceeded 18months (550 days). Similar findings were observed for hip fracture and in sensitivity analyses. In conclusion, the FI is comparable with FRAX in the prediction of risk of future fractures, indicating that measures of frailty status may aid in fracture risk assessment and fracture prevention in the elderly. Further evidence from randomized controlled trials of osteoporosis medication interventions is needed to support the FI and FRAX as validated measures of fracture risk.

Frail Elders in an Urban District Setting in Malaysia: Multidimensional Frailty and Its Correlates

In the past decade, the population in Malaysia has been rapidly ageing. This poses new challenges and issues that threaten the ability of the elderly to independently age in place. A multistage cross-sectional study on 789 community-dwelling elderly individuals aged 60 years and above was conducted in an urban district in Malaysia to assess the geriatric syndrome of frailty. Using a multidimensional frailty index, we detected 67.7% prefrail and 5.7% frail elders. Cognitive status was a significant correlate for frailty status among the respondents as well as those who perceived their health status as very poor or quite poor; but self-rated health was no longer significant when controlled for sociodemographic variables. Lower-body weakness and history of falls were associated with increasing frailty levels, and this association persisted in the multivariate model. This study offers support that physical disability, falls, and cognition are important determinants for frailty. This initial work on frailty among urban elders in Malaysia provides important correlations and identifies potential risk factors that can form the basis of information for targeted preventive measures for this vulnerable group in their prefrail state.

Comparison between frailty index of deficit accumulation and phenotypic model to predict risk of falls: data from the global longitudinal study of osteoporosis in women (GLOW) Hamilton cohort

OBJECTIVES

To compare the predictive accuracy of the frailty index (FI) of deficit accumulation and the phenotypic frailty (PF) model in predicting risks of future falls, fractures and death in women aged ≥55 years.

METHODS

Based on the data from the Global Longitudinal Study of Osteoporosis in Women (GLOW) 3-year Hamilton cohort (n = 3,985), we compared the predictive accuracy of the FI and PF in risks of falls, fractures and death using three strategies: (1) investigated the relationship with adverse health outcomes by increasing per one-fifth (i.e., 20%) of the FI and PF; (2) trichotomized the FI based on the overlap in the density distribution of the FI by the three groups (robust, pre-frail and frail) which were defined by the PF; (3) categorized the women according to a predicted probability function of falls during the third year of follow-up predicted by the FI. Logistic regression models were used for falls and death, while survival analyses were conducted for fractures.

RESULTS

The FI and PF agreed with each other at a good level of consensus (correlation coefficients ≥ 0.56) in all the three strategies. Both the FI and PF approaches predicted adverse health outcomes significantly. The FI quantified the risks of future falls, fractures and death more precisely than the PF. Both the FI and PF discriminated risks of adverse outcomes in multivariable models with acceptable and comparable area under the curve (AUCs) for falls (AUCs ≥ 0.68) and death (AUCs ≥ 0.79), and c-indices for fractures (c-indices ≥ 0.69) respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The FI is comparable with the PF in predicting risks of adverse health outcomes. These findings may indicate the flexibility in the choice of frailty model for the elderly in the population-based settings.