Divergent fifteen-year trends in traditional and cardiometabolic risk factors of cardiovascular diseases in the Seychelles

Green tea consumption and incidence of cardiovascular disease in type 2 diabetic patients with overweight/obesity: a community-based cohort study

BACKGROUND

Green tea has been reported to be potentially protective against the development of cardiovascular disease (CVD). This study aimed to investigate the association between green tea consumption and incident CVD in type 2 diabetes (T2D) patients with overweight/obesity.

METHODS

A total of 4756 Chinese overweight/obese T2D patients were recruited and followed up for 6.27 years. Information on green tea consumption was collected at baseline using interviewer-administered questionnaires. Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for incident CVD according to green tea consumption were estimated using the Cox proportional hazards model.

RESULTS

Compared with non-habitual consumers, participants who consumed > 5 g/day of green tea leaves reduced the risk of CVD by 29% (95%CI: 0.55-0.92), stroke by 30% (95%CI: 0.51-0.95) and coronary heart disease (CHD) by 40% (95%CI: 0.40-0.89). Similarly, participants who consumed green tea for ≥ 40 years reduced the risk of CVD by 31% (95%CI: 0.54-0.88), stroke by 33% (95%CI: 0.50-0.90) and CHD by 39% (95%CI: 0.42-0.88). Among participants with < 5-year history of T2D, > 5 g/day of tea leaves and > 40 years of tea consumption were associated with 59% (95%CI: 0.23-0.72) and 57% (95%CI: 0.26-0.74) reduced risk of stroke, respectively. However, among participants with ≥ 5-year history of T2D, > 5 g/day of tea leaves and > 40 years of tea consumption were associated with a 50% (95%CI: 0.30-0.82) and 46% (95%CI: 0.35-0.85) reduced risk of CHD, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Green tea consumption is associated with reduced risk of CVD, stroke, and CHD in overweight/obese T2D patients.

Prevalence of the metabolic syndrome in African populations: A systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

The metabolic syndrome (MS) is a leading cause of death worldwide. Several studies have found MS to be prevalent in various African regions. However, no specific estimates of MS prevalence in African populations exist. The aim of this study was to estimate the overall prevalence of MS in the African populations.

METHODS

A systematic review was conducted in PubMed, Web of Science, Africa Index Medicus, and African Journal Online Scopus to find studies published up to the 15th of August 2022. Pooled prevalence was calculated based on six diagnostic methods. The pooled prevalence of MS was estimated using a random-effects model. Our risk of bias analysis was based on the Hoy et al. tool. A Heterogeneity (I2) assessment was performed, as well as an Egger test for publication bias. PROSPERO number CRD42021275176 was assigned to this study.

RESULTS

In total, 297 studies corresponding to 345 prevalence data from 29 African countries and involving 156 464 participants were included. The overall prevalence of MS in Africa was 32.4% (95% CI: 30.2-34.7) with significant heterogeneity (I2 = 98.9%; P<0.001). We obtained prevalence rates of 44.8% (95% CI: 24.8-65.7), 39.7% (95% CI: 31.7-48.1), 33.1% (95% CI: 28.5-37.8), 31.6% (95% CI: 27.8-35.6) and 29.3% (95% CI: 25.7-33) using the WHO, revised NCEP-ATP III, JIS, NCEP/ATP III and IDF definition criteria, respectively. The prevalence of MS was significantly higher in adults >18 years with 33.1% (95%CI: 30.8-35.5) compared to children <18 years with 13.3% (95%CI: 7.3-20.6) (P<0.001). MS prevalence was significantly higher in females with 36.9% (95%CI: 33.2-40.7) compared to males with 26.7% (95%CI: 23.1-30.5) (P<0.001). The prevalence of MS was highest among Type 2 diabetes patients with 66.9% (95%CI: 60.3-73.1), followed by patients with coronary artery disease with 55.2% (95%CI: 50.8-59.6) and cardiovascular diseases with 48.3% (95%CI: 33.5-63.3) (P<0.001). With 33.6% (95% CI: 28.3-39.1), the southern African region was the most affected, followed by upper-middle income economies with 35% (95% CI: 29.5-40.6).

CONCLUSION

This study, regardless of the definition used, reveals a high prevalence of MS in Africa, confirming the ongoing epidemiological transition in African countries. Early prevention and treatment strategies are urgently needed to reverse this trend.

Wealth and obesity in pre-adolescents and their guardians: A first step in explaining non-communicable disease-related behaviour in two areas of Nairobi City County

The prevalence of non-communicable diseases is increasing in lower-middle-income countries as these countries transition to unhealthy lifestyles. The transition is mostly predominant in urban areas. We assessed the association between wealth and obesity in two sub-counties in Nairobi City County, Kenya, in the context of family and poverty. This cross-sectional study was conducted among of 9-14 years old pre-adolescents and their guardians living in low- (Embakasi) and middle-income (Langata) sub-counties. The sociodemographic characteristics were collected using a validated questionnaire. Weight, height, mid-upper arm circumference, and waist circumference were measured using standard approved protocols. Socioeconomic characteristics of the residential sites were accessed using Wealth Index, created by using Principal Component Analysis. Statistical analyses were done by analysis of variance (continuous variables, comparison of areas) and with logistic and linear regression models.A total of 149 households, response rate of 93%, participated, 72 from Embakasi and 77 from Langata. Most of the participants residing in Embakasi belonged to the lower income and education groups whereas participants residing in Langata belonged to the higher income and education groups. About 30% of the pre-adolescent participants in Langata were overweight, compared to 6% in Embakasi (p<0.001). In contrast, the prevalence of adults (mostly mothers) with overweight and obesity was high (65%) in both study areas. Wealth (β = 0.01; SE 0.0; p = 0.003) and income (β = 0.29; SE 0.11; p = 0.009) predicted higher BMI z-score in pre-adolescents. In, pre-adolescent overweight was already highly prevalent in the middle-income area, while the proportion of women with overweight/obesity was high in the low-income area. These results suggest that a lifestyle promoting obesity is high regardless of socioeconomic status and wealth in Kenya. This provides a strong justification for promoting healthy lifestyles across all socio-economic classes.

Prevalence, awareness and control of hypertension in Ghana: A systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Hypertension is a major health problem in Ghana, being a leading cause of admissions and deaths in the country. In the context of a changing food and health policy environment, we undertook a systematic review (PROSPERO registration number: CRD42020177174) and a meta-analysis of the prevalence of adult hypertension, and its awareness and control in Ghana.

METHODS

We searched major databases including PubMed, Embase as well as Google Scholar and online digital collections of public universities of Ghana to locate relevant published and unpublished community-based articles up till April 2020.

FINDINGS

Eighty-five articles involving 82,045 apparently-healthy subjects aged 15-100 years were analyzed. In individual studies, the prevalence of hypertension, defined in most cases as blood pressure ≥ 140/90 mmHg, ranged from 2.8% to 67.5%. The pooled prevalence from the meta-analysis was 27.0% (95% CI 24.0%-30.0%), being twice as high in the coastal (28%, 95% CI: 24.0%-31.0%) and middle geo-ecological belts (29%, 95% CI: 25.0%-33.0%) as in the northern belt (13%, 95% CI: 7.0%-21.0%). The prevalence was similar by sex, urban-rural residence or peer-review status of the included studies. It did not appear to vary over the study year period 1976-2019. Of the subjects with hypertension, only 35% (95% CI: 29.0%-41.0%) were aware of it, 22% (95% CI: 16.0%-29.0%) were on treatment and 6.0% (95% CI: 3.0%-10.0%) had their blood pressure controlled. Sensitivity analyses corroborated the robust estimates. There was, however, high heterogeneity (I2 = 98.7%) across the studies which was partly explained by prevalent obesity in the subjects.

CONCLUSION

More than one in four adults in Ghana have hypertension. This high prevalence has persisted for decades and is similar in rural and urban populations. With the low awareness and poor control of hypertension, greater investments in cardiovascular health are required if Ghana is to meet the global target for hypertension.

The Challenges in the Development of Diabetes Prevention and Care Models in Low-Income Settings

In low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), the burden of non-communicable diseases such as diabetes is rapidly rising, overpassing the existing burden of communicable diseases. Patients with diabetes living in low-income communities face unique challenges related to lack of awareness, difficulty in accessing health care systems and medications, and consequently failure in achieving optimal diabetes management and preventing complications. Effective diabetes prevention and care models could help reduce the rising burden by standardizing guidelines for prevention and management, improving access to care, engaging community and peers, improving the training of professionals and patients and using the newest technology in the management of the disease. In this article, we review the latest research and evidence on effective models of diabetes prevention and diabetes care delivery in low- income settings. We also provide existing evidence relating to the effectiveness of these models in low-resource contexts, with the aim to highlight characteristics and strengths that make their implementation successful and long-lasting.

Repositioning of the global epicentre of non-optimal cholesterol

High blood cholesterol is typically considered a feature of wealthy western countries1,2. However, dietary and behavioural determinants of blood cholesterol are changing rapidly throughout the world3 and countries are using lipid-lowering medications at varying rates. These changes can have distinct effects on the levels of high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol and non-HDL cholesterol, which have different effects on human health4,5. However, the trends of HDL and non-HDL cholesterol levels over time have not been previously reported in a global analysis. Here we pooled 1,127 population-based studies that measured blood lipids in 102.6 million individuals aged 18 years and older to estimate trends from 1980 to 2018 in mean total, non-HDL and HDL cholesterol levels for 200 countries. Globally, there was little change in total or non-HDL cholesterol from 1980 to 2018. This was a net effect of increases in low- and middle-income countries, especially in east and southeast Asia, and decreases in high-income western countries, especially those in northwestern Europe, and in central and eastern Europe. As a result, countries with the highest level of non-HDL cholesterol-which is a marker of cardiovascular risk-changed from those in western Europe such as Belgium, Finland, Greenland, Iceland, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland and Malta in 1980 to those in Asia and the Pacific, such as Tokelau, Malaysia, The Philippines and Thailand. In 2017, high non-HDL cholesterol was responsible for an estimated 3.9 million (95% credible interval 3.7 million-4.2 million) worldwide deaths, half of which occurred in east, southeast and south Asia. The global repositioning of lipid-related risk, with non-optimal cholesterol shifting from a distinct feature of high-income countries in northwestern Europe, north America and Australasia to one that affects countries in east and southeast Asia and Oceania should motivate the use of population-based policies and personal interventions to improve nutrition and enhance access to treatment throughout the world.

Hypertension in older adults in Africa: A systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Hypertension is the leading driver of cardiovascular disease deaths in Africa. Its prevalence is highest in older populations. Yet, this group has received little attention in many African countries. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis (PROSPERO registration: CRD42017056474) to estimate the prevalence of hypertension in older adults living in Africa.

METHODS

We searched grey literature and major electronic databases including PubMed and Embase for population-based studies and published between 1 January 1980 to 28 May 2018 reporting the prevalence of hypertension for adults aged ≥50 years living in Africa. We employed a random effects model to estimate the pooled prevalence across included studies.

FINDINGS

We screened 10,719 articles and retrieved 103 full-text articles to evaluate for inclusion in the review. Thirty-four unique studies providing 37 data points on 43,025 individuals in 15 African countries were analyzed. The prevalence of hypertension ranged from 22.3% to 90.0% from the individual studies while the overall pooled prevalence was 57.0% (95% CI 52%-61%). The prevalence was not statistically significantly different by sex, residence, or African sub-region. In individual studies, older age and overweight/obesity were independently associated with hypertension. Twenty-nine (78%) data points were deemed to be of low- or moderate-risk of bias. Eliminating high-risk bias studies made little difference to the pooled estimate of hypertension. Sensitivity analyses, omitting one study at a time, identified three studies with significant but relatively small impact on the pooled estimate. We observed substantial heterogeneity (I2 = 98.9%) across the studies which was further explored by meta-regression analyses. Overall, the GRADE assessment suggested moderate quality evidence in the results.

CONCLUSION

The persistent high prevalence of hypertension among older adults in Africa, even in rural populations warrants more attention to the cardiovascular health of this group by public health authorities.

Health system performance for people with diabetes in 28 low- and middle-income countries: A cross-sectional study of nationally representative surveys

BACKGROUND

The prevalence of diabetes is increasing rapidly in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), urgently requiring detailed evidence to guide the response of health systems to this epidemic. In an effort to understand at what step in the diabetes care continuum individuals are lost to care, and how this varies between countries and population groups, this study examined health system performance for diabetes among adults in 28 LMICs using a cascade of care approach.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We pooled individual participant data from nationally representative surveys done between 2008 and 2016 in 28 LMICs. Diabetes was defined as fasting plasma glucose ≥ 7.0 mmol/l (126 mg/dl), random plasma glucose ≥ 11.1 mmol/l (200 mg/dl), HbA1c ≥ 6.5%, or reporting to be taking medication for diabetes. Stages of the care cascade were as follows: tested, diagnosed, lifestyle advice and/or medication given ("treated"), and controlled (HbA1c < 8.0% or equivalent). We stratified cascades of care by country, geographic region, World Bank income group, and individual-level characteristics (age, sex, educational attainment, household wealth quintile, and body mass index [BMI]). We then used logistic regression models with country-level fixed effects to evaluate predictors of (1) testing, (2) treatment, and (3) control. The final sample included 847,413 adults in 28 LMICs (8 low income, 9 lower-middle income, 11 upper-middle income). Survey sample size ranged from 824 in Guyana to 750,451 in India. The prevalence of diabetes was 8.8% (95% CI: 8.2%-9.5%), and the prevalence of undiagnosed diabetes was 4.8% (95% CI: 4.5%-5.2%). Health system performance for management of diabetes showed large losses to care at the stage of being tested, and low rates of diabetes control. Total unmet need for diabetes care (defined as the sum of those not tested, tested but undiagnosed, diagnosed but untreated, and treated but with diabetes not controlled) was 77.0% (95% CI: 74.9%-78.9%). Performance along the care cascade was significantly better in upper-middle income countries, but across all World Bank income groups, only half of participants with diabetes who were tested achieved diabetes control. Greater age, educational attainment, and BMI were associated with higher odds of being tested, being treated, and achieving control. The limitations of this study included the use of a single glucose measurement to assess diabetes, differences in the approach to wealth measurement across surveys, and variation in the date of the surveys.

CONCLUSIONS

The study uncovered poor management of diabetes along the care cascade, indicating large unmet need for diabetes care across 28 LMICs. Performance across the care cascade varied by World Bank income group and individual-level characteristics, particularly age, educational attainment, and BMI. This policy-relevant analysis can inform country-specific interventions and offers a baseline by which future progress can be measured.

Associations between psychological stress and smoking, drinking, obesity, and high blood pressure in an upper middle-income country in the African region

The direction and magnitude of the associations between cardiovascular risk factors (CVRFs) and psychological stress continue to be debated, and no data are available from surveys in the African region. In this study, we examine the associations between CVRFs and psychological stress in the Seychelles, a rapidly developing small island state in the African region. A survey was conducted in 1,240 adults aged 25-64 years representative of the Seychelles. Participants were asked to rank psychological stress that they had experienced during the past 12 months in four domains: work, social life, financial situation, and environment around home. CVRFs (high blood pressure, tobacco use, alcohol drinking, and obesity) were assessed using standard procedures. Psychological stress was associated with age, sex, and socioeconomic status. Overall, there were only few consistent associations between psychological stress and CVRFs, adjusting for age, sex, and socioeconomic status. Social stress was associated with smoking, drinking, and obesity, and there were marginal associations between stress at work and drinking, and between financial stress, and smoking and drinking. Psychological stress was not associated with high blood pressure. These findings suggest that psychological stress should be considered in cardiovascular disease prevention and control strategies.

Burden of hypertension in The Gambia: evidence from a national World Health Organization (WHO) STEP survey

BACKGROUND

Non-communicable diseases are increasing in sub-Saharan Africa and are estimated to account for 32% of adult deaths in The Gambia. Worldwide, prevalence of hypertension is highest in the African region (46%) and a very high proportion is undiagnosed. This study examined diagnosed and undiagnosed hypertension in The Gambian adult population.

METHODS

Data were collected in 2010 from a nationally representative random sample of 4111 adults aged 25-64 years, using the World Health Organization STEPwise cross-sectional survey methods. Analyses were restricted to non-pregnant participants with three valid blood pressure measurements (n = 3573). We conducted gender-stratified univariate and multivariate regression analyses to identify the strongest sociodemographic, behavioural and biological risk factors associated with hypertension.

RESULTS

Almost one-third of adults were hypertensive; a high proportion were undiagnosed, particularly among men (86% of men vs 71% of women with hypertension, P < 0.001). Rural and semi-urban residents and overweight/obese persons had increased odds of hypertension. Compared with urban residents, participants from one of the most rural regions had higher odds of hypertension among both men [adjusted odds ratio (AOR) 3.2; 95% CI: 1.6-6.4] and women (AOR 2.5; 95% CI: 1.3-4.6). Other factors strongly associated with hypertension in multivariate analyses were age, smoking, physical inactivity and ethnicity.

CONCLUSIONS

Rural and semi-urban residence were strongly associated with hypertension, contrary to what has been found in similar studies in sub-Saharan Africa. Intervention to reduce the burden of hypertension in The Gambia could be further targeted towards rural areas.

Dietary determinants of serum total cholesterol among middle-aged and older adults: a population-based cross-sectional study in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania

OBJECTIVE

To assess the dietary determinants of serum total cholesterol.

DESIGN

Cross-sectional population-based study.

SETTING

Peri-urban region of Dar es Salaam, Tanzania.

PARTICIPANTS

347 adults aged 40 years and older from the Dar es Salaam Urban Cohort Hypertension Study.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE

Serum total cholesterol measured using a point-of-care device.

RESULTS

Mean serum total cholesterol level was 204 mg/dL (IQR 169-236 mg/dL) in women and 185 mg/dL (IQR 152-216 mg/dL) in men. After adjusting for demographic, socioeconomic, lifestyle and dietary factors, participants who reported using palm oil as the major cooking oil had serum total cholesterol higher by 15 mg/dL (95% CI 1 to 29 mg/dL) compared with those who reported using sunflower oil. Consumption of one or more servings of meat per day (p for trend=0.017) and less than five servings of fruits and vegetables per day (p for trend=0.024) were also associated with higher serum total cholesterol. A combination of using palm oil for cooking, eating more than one serving of meat per day and fewer than five servings of fruits and vegetables per day, was associated with 46 mg/dL (95% CI 16 to 76 mg/dL) higher serum total cholesterol.

CONCLUSIONS

Using palm oil for cooking was associated with higher serum total cholesterol levels in this peri-urban population in Dar es Salaam. Reduction of saturated fat content of edible oil may be considered as a population-based strategy for primary prevention of cardiovascular diseases.

Socioeconomic Differences in Dietary Patterns in an East African Country: Evidence from the Republic of Seychelles

BACKGROUND

In high income countries, low socioeconomic status (SES) is related to unhealthier dietary patterns, while evidence on the social patterning of diet in low and middle income countries is scarce.

OBJECTIVE

In this study, we assess dietary patterns in the general population of a middle income country in the African region, the Republic of Seychelles, and examine their distribution according to educational level and income.

METHODS

Data was drawn from two independent national surveys conducted in the Seychelles among adults aged 25-64 years in 2004 (n = 1236) and 2013 (n = 1240). Dietary patterns were assessed by principal component analysis (PCA). Educational level and income were used as SES indicators. Data from both surveys were combined as no interaction was found between SES and year.

RESULTS

Three dietary patterns were identified: "snacks and drinks", "fruit and vegetables" and "fish and rice". No significant associations were found between SES and the "snacks and drinks" pattern. Low vs. high SES individuals had lower adherence to the "fruit and vegetables" pattern [prevalence ratio (95% CI) 0.71 (0.60-0.83)] but a higher adherence to the traditional "fish and rice" pattern [1.58 (1.32-1.88)]. Income modified the association between education and the "fish and rice" pattern (p = 0.02), whereby low income individuals had a higher adherence to this pattern in both educational groups.

CONCLUSION

Low SES individuals have a lower consumption of fruit and vegetables, but a higher consumption of traditional foods like fish and rice. The Seychelles may be at a degenerative diseases stage of the nutrition transition.

Prevalence, treatment and control of hypertension in La Réunion: the RÉDIA population-based cohort study

A better knowledge of prevalence, management and determinants of hypertension is needed in regions in epidemiological transition to adapt the strategies of public health screening and prevention, and to reduce the burden of cardiovascular diseases. We conducted a prospective cohort study including 4610 participants aged between 18 and 69 years and representative of the general population of La Réunion, a French overseas island located in the western Indian Ocean. The median time between inclusion and follow-up was 7.4 years. Blood pressure data at baseline and follow-up of 3087 participants were analyzed. We found a high prevalence of hypertension, especially in women (36.7% [34.5-39.0]) and in men (40.3% [37.6-43.0]) and in the under 30s (17.1% [14.0-20.5]), with an increase of 10% at follow-up. Treatment rates were very low in men (19.5% versus 39.1% in women) as was awareness of their condition (25.7% versus 44.6%). Blood pressure control rates were similar (18% at baseline and 34% at follow-up for both sexes). Diagnosis of hypertension at follow-up among subjects normotensive at baseline was independently associated with obesity at baseline (relative risk (RR) = 1.40 [1.12-1.75] for BMI between 27 and 30 kg/m² and 1.72 [1.33-2.25] for BMI ≥30 kg/m² as compared with BMI <27 kg/m²) and HbA1C (RR =1.12 [1.05-1.19] per %), suggesting a prominent role of insulin resistance in our population. Our study provides original data that cannot be assimilated to any existing model and should guide the implementation of original community-based programs in such countries.

Comparison between capillary glucose measured with a Contour glucometer and plasma glucose in a population survey

Capillary glucose (CG) measured with point-of-care glucometers can provide useful approximation of plasma glucose (PG) in selected circumstances but the validity of measurements has been adequately assessed only for a few glucometers.

We assessed the difference between CG measured with a glucometer (Contour Ascensia, Bayer) and PG measured with a standard laboratory method in participants to a population-based cardiovascular survey in the Seychelles (sample size 1227).

CG correlated well with PG (r=0.94; p<0.001). The overall difference between PG and CG was –0.55 mmol/L for PG <4.0 mmol/L (n=19; 95% CI –0.92; –0.18); 0.14 mmol/L for PG 4.0–4.9 (n=344; 95% CI 0.08–0.20) and increased according to PG up to 1.64 mmol/L for PG >9.0 mmol/L (n=68; 95% CI 1.36; 1.91). The prevalence of diabetes in the study sample was 29% lower with CG than with PG (8.6% vs. 12.1%) but this bias could be corrected by analytical re-calibration.

CG underestimated PG, although the bias was small among persons with low glycemia. This systematic difference may bear little significance when the purpose is to simply monitor blood glucose but has large impact on prevalence estimates at the population level if CG values are not adequately calibrated.

Sudden unexpected death from natural diseases: Fifteen years' experience with 484 cases in Seychelles

The aim of this study is to identify and subclassify sudden natural death (sudden death from natural diseases) cases in Seychelles. A total of 484 sudden natural death cases with autopsy at the Clinical Pathology Laboratory, Victoria Hospital, Seychelles between 1997 through 2012 were retrospectively reviewed. Among them, 363 cases (75%) were male and 121 (25%) were female. The most frequent sudden deaths were attributed to cardiovascular diseases (78.5%), and then followed by infectious diseases (9.9%), and gastrointestinal diseases (9.1%). This is the largest population-based study on sudden natural deaths in Seychelles.

A comparison of indices of glucose metabolism in five black populations: data from modeling the epidemiologic transition study (METS)

Background

Globally, Africans and African Americans experience a disproportionate burden of type 2 diabetes, compared to other race and ethnic groups. The aim of the study was to examine the association of plasma glucose with indices of glucose metabolism in young adults of African origin from 5 different countries.

Methods

We identified participants from the Modeling the Epidemiologic Transition Study, an international study of weight change and cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk in five populations of African origin: USA (US), Jamaica, Ghana, South Africa, and Seychelles. For the current study, we included 667 participants (34.8 ± 6.3 years), with measures of plasma glucose, insulin, leptin, and adiponectin, as well as moderate and vigorous physical activity (MVPA, minutes/day [min/day]), daily sedentary time (min/day), anthropometrics, and body composition.

Results

Among the 282 men, body mass index (BMI) ranged from 22.1 to 29.6 kg/m² in men and from 25.8 to 34.8 kg/m² in 385 women. MVPA ranged from 26.2 to 47.1 min/day in men, and from 14.3 to 27.3 min/day in women and correlated with adiposity (BMI, waist size, and % body fat) only among US males after controlling for age. Plasma glucose ranged from 4.6 ± 0.8 mmol/L in the South African men to 5.8 mmol/L US men, while the overall prevalence for diabetes was very low, except in the US men and women (6.7 and 12 %, respectively). Using multivariate linear regression, glucose was associated with BMI, age, sex, smoking hypertension, daily sedentary time but not daily MVPA.

Conclusion

Obesity, metabolic risk, and other potential determinants vary significantly between populations at differing stages of the epidemiologic transition, requiring tailored public health policies to address local population characteristics.

Contributions of risk factors and medical care to cardiovascular mortality trends

Ischaemic heart disease, stroke, and other cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) lead to 17.5 million deaths worldwide per year. Taking into account population ageing, CVD death rates are decreasing steadily both in regions with reliable trend data and globally. The declines in high-income countries and some Latin American countries have been ongoing for decades without slowing. These positive trends have broadly coincided with, and benefited from, declines in smoking and physiological risk factors, such as blood pressure and serum cholesterol levels. These declines have also coincided with, and benefited from, improvements in medical care, including primary prevention, diagnosis, and treatment of acute CVDs, as well as post-hospital care, especially in the past 40 years. These variables, however, explain neither why the decline began when it did, nor the similarities and differences in the start time and rate of the decline between countries and sexes. In Russia and some other former Soviet countries, changes in volume and patterns of alcohol consumption have caused sharp rises in CVD mortality since the early 1990s. An important challenge in reaching firm conclusions about the drivers of these remarkable international trends is the paucity of time-trend data on CVD incidence, risk factors throughout the life-course, and clinical care.

Association of socioeconomic status with overall and cause specific mortality in the Republic of Seychelles: results from a cohort study in the African region

BACKGROUND

Low socioeconomic status (SES) is consistently associated with higher mortality in high income countries. Only few studies have assessed this association in low and middle income countries, mainly because of sparse reliable mortality data. This study explores SES differences in overall and cause-specific mortality in the Seychelles, a rapidly developing small island state in the African region.

METHODS

All deaths have been medically certified over more than two decades. SES and other lifestyle-related risk factors were assessed in a total of 3246 participants from three independent population-based surveys conducted in 1989, 1994 and 2004. Vital status was ascertained using linkage with vital statistics. Occupational position was the indicator of SES used in this study and was assessed with the same questions in the three surveys.

RESULTS

During a mean follow-up of 15.0 years (range 0-23 years), 523 participants died (overall mortality rate 10.8 per 1000 person-years). The main causes of death were cardiovascular disease (CVD) (219 deaths) and cancer (142 deaths). Participants in the low SES group had a higher mortality risk for overall (HR = 1.80; 95% CI: 1.24-2.62), CVD (HR = 1.95; 1.04-3.65) and non-cancer/non-CVD (HR = 2.14; 1.10-4.16) mortality compared to participants in the high SES group. Cancer mortality also tended to be patterned by SES (HR = 1.44; 0.76-2.75). Major lifestyle-related risk factors (smoking, heavy drinking, obesity, diabetes, hypertension, hypercholesterolemia) explained a small proportion of the associations between low SES and all-cause, CVD, and non-cancer/non-CVD mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

In this population-based study assessing social inequalities in mortality in a country of the African region, low SES (as measured by occupational position) was strongly associated with overall, CVD and non-cancer/non-CVD mortality. Our findings support the view that the burden of non-communicable diseases may disproportionally affect people with low SES in low and middle income countries.

Low prevalence of abdominal aortic aneurysm in the Seychelles population aged 50 to 65 years

Abstract

The prevalence of abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) and its risk factors are well known in Western countries but few data are available from low- and middle-income countries. We are not aware of systematically collected population-based data on AAA in the African region. We evaluated the prevalence of AAA in a population-based cardiovascular survey conducted in the Republic of Seychelles in 2004 (Indian Ocean, African region). Among the 353 participants aged 50 to 64 years and screened with ultrasound, the prevalence of AAA was 0.3% (95% CI: 0–0.9) and the prevalence of ectatic dilatations of the abdominal aorta was 1.5% (95% CI: 0.2–2.8). The prevalence of AAA in the general population seemed lower in Seychelles than in Western countries, despite a high prevalence in Seychelles of risk factors of AAA, such as smoking (in men), high blood pressure and hypercholesterolaemia.

Measures of health and disease in Africa: are current methods giving us useful information about trends in cardiovascular diseases?

An enormous burst of interest in the public health burden from chronic disease in Africa has emerged as a consequence of efforts to estimate global population health. Detailed estimates are now published for Africa as a whole and each country on the continent. These data have formed the basis for warnings about sharp increases in cardiovascular disease (CVD) in the coming decades. In this essay we briefly examine the trajectory of social development on the continent and its consequences for the epidemiology of CVD and potential control strategies. Since full vital registration has only been implemented in segments of South Africa and the island nations of Seychelles and Mauritius - formally part of WHO-AFRO - mortality data are extremely limited. Numerous sample surveys have been conducted but they often lack standardization or objective measures of health status. Trend data are even less informative. However, using the best quality data available, age-standardized trends in CVD are downward, and in the case of stroke, sharply so. While acknowledging that the extremely limited available data cannot be used as the basis for inference to the continent, we raise the concern that general estimates based on imputation to fill in the missing mortality tables may be even more misleading. No immediate remedies to this problem can be identified, however bilateral collaborative efforts to strength local educational institutions and governmental agencies rank as the highest priority for near term development.

Multiple cardiovascular risk factors in Kenya: evidence from a health and demographic surveillance system using the WHO STEPwise approach to chronic disease risk factor surveillance

OBJECTIVE

To describe the distribution of cardiovascular risk factors in western Kenya using a Health and Demographic Surveillance System (HDSS).

DESIGN

Population based survey of residents in an HDSS.

SETTING

Webuye Division in Bungoma East District, Western Province of Kenya.

PATIENTS

4037 adults ≥ 18 years of age.

INTERVENTIONS

Home based survey using the WHO STEPwise approach to chronic disease risk factor surveillance.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Self-report of high blood pressure, high blood sugar, tobacco use, alcohol use, physical activity, and fruit/vegetable intake.

RESULTS

The median age of the population was 35 years (IQR 26-50). Less than 6% of the population reported high blood pressure or blood sugar. Tobacco and alcohol use were reported in 7% and 16% of the population, respectively. The majority of the population (93%) was physically active. The average number of days per week that participants reported intake of fruits (3.1 ± 0.1) or vegetables (1.6 ± 0.1) was low. In multiple logistic regression analyses, women were more likely to report a history of high blood pressure (OR 2.72, 95% CI 1.9 to 3.9), less likely to report using tobacco (OR 0.08, 95% CI 0.06 to 0.11), less likely to report alcohol use (OR 0.18, 95% CI 0.15 to 0.21) or eat ≥ 5 servings per day of fruits or vegetables (OR 0.87, 95% CI 0.76 to 0.99) compared to men.

CONCLUSIONS

The most common cardiovascular risk factors in peri-urban western Kenya are tobacco use, alcohol use, and inadequate intake of fruits and vegetables. Our data reveal locally relevant subgroup differences that could inform future prevention efforts.

The global cardiovascular risk transition: associations of four metabolic risk factors with national income, urbanization, and Western diet in 1980 and 2008

BACKGROUND

It is commonly assumed that cardiovascular disease risk factors are associated with affluence and Westernization. We investigated the associations of body mass index (BMI), fasting plasma glucose, systolic blood pressure, and serum total cholesterol with national income, Western diet, and, for BMI, urbanization in 1980 and 2008.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Country-level risk factor estimates for 199 countries between 1980 and 2008 were from a previous systematic analysis of population-based data. We analyzed the associations between risk factors and per capita national income, a measure of Western diet, and, for BMI, the percentage of the population living in urban areas. In 1980, there was a positive association between national income and population mean BMI, systolic blood pressure, and total cholesterol. By 2008, the slope of the association between national income and systolic blood pressure became negative for women and zero for men. Total cholesterol was associated with national income and Western diet in both 1980 and 2008. In 1980, BMI rose with national income and then flattened at ≈Int$7000; by 2008, the relationship resembled an inverted U for women, peaking at middle-income levels. BMI had a positive relationship with the percentage of urban population in both 1980 and 2008. Fasting plasma glucose had weaker associations with these country macro characteristics, but it was positively associated with BMI.

CONCLUSIONS

The changing associations of metabolic risk factors with macroeconomic variables indicate that there will be a global pandemic of hyperglycemia and diabetes mellitus, together with high blood pressure in low-income countries, unless effective lifestyle and pharmacological interventions are implemented.

Association of blood lipids, creatinine, albumin, and CRP with socioeconomic status in Malawi

BACKGROUND

The objective of these analyses is to document the relationship between biomarker-based indicators of health and socioeconomic status (SES) in a low-income African population where the cumulative effects of exposure to multiple stressors on physiological functions and health in general are expected to be highly detrimental for the well-being of individuals.

METHODS

Biomarkers were collected subsequent to the 2008 round of the Malawi Longitudinal Study of Families and Health (MLSFH), a population-based study in rural Malawi, including blood lipids (total cholesterol, LDL, HDL, ratio of total cholesterol to HDL), biomarkers of renal and liver organ function (albumin and creatinine) and wide-range C-reactive protein (CRP) as a non-specific biomarker for inflammation. These biomarkers represent widely used indicators of health that are individually or cumulatively recognized as risk factors for age-related diseases among prime-aged and elderly individuals. Quantile regressions are used to estimate the age-gradient and the within-day variation of each biomarker distribution. Differences in biomarker levels by socioeconomic status are investigated using descriptive and multivariate statistics.

RESULTS

Overall, the number of significant associations between the biomarkers and socioeconomic measures is very modest. None of the biomarkers significantly varies with schooling. Except for CRP where being married is weakly associated with lower risk of having an elevated CRP level, marriage is not associated with the biomarkers measured in the MLSFH. Similarly, being Muslim is associated with a lower risk of having elevated CRP but otherwise religion does not predict being in the high-risk quartiles of any of the MLSFH biomarkers. Wealth does not predict being in the high-risk quartile of any of the MLSFH biomarkers, with the exception of a weak effect on creatinine. Being overweight or obese is associated with increased likelihood of being in the high-risk quartile for cholesterol, Chol/HDL ratio, and LDL.

CONCLUSIONS

The results provide only weak evidence for variation of the biomarkers by socioeconomic indicators in a poor Malawian context. Our findings underscore the need for further research to understand the determinants of health outcomes in a poor low-income context such as rural Malawi.

Nutrition transition in a middle-income country: 22-year trends in the Seychelles

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES

There is little objective information regarding nutrition transition in African countries. We assessed trends in nutrition patterns in the Seychelles between 1989 and 2011.

SUBJECTS/METHODS

Population-based samples were obtained in 1989, 1994 and 2011 and participants aged 25-44 are considered in this study (n=493, 599 and 471, respectively). Similar, although not identical, food frequency questionnaires (FFQs) were used in each survey and the variables were collapsed into homogenous categories for the purpose of this study.

RESULTS

Between 1989 and 2011, consumption frequency of fish (5+/week) decreased from 93 to 74%, whereas the following increased: meat (5+/week) 25 to 51%, fruits (1+/week) 48 to 94%, salty snacks (1+/week) 22 to 64% and sweet snacks (1+/week) 38 to 67% (P<0.001 for all). Consumption frequency decreased for home-brewed alcoholic drinks (1+/week) 16 to 1%, but increased for wine (1+/week) 5 to 33% (both P<0.001). Between 2004 and 2011, consumption frequency decreased for rice (2/day) 62 to 57% and tea (1+/day) 72 to 68%, increased for poultry (1+/week) 86 to 96% (all P<0.01), and did not change for vegetables (70.3 to 69.8%, P=0.65).

CONCLUSIONS

Seychelles is experiencing nutrition transition characterized by a decreased consumption frequency of traditional staple foods (fish, polished rice), beverages (tea) and of inexpensive home brews, and increased consumption frequency of meat, poultry and snacks. Food patterns also became more varied along with a broader availability of products in the 22-year interval. The health impact of these changes should be further studied.

The social transition of risk factors for cardiovascular disease in the African region: evidence from three cross-sectional surveys in the Seychelles

OBJECTIVES

To examine the association between socioeconomic status (SES) and several cardiovascular disease risk factors (CVRFs) and to assess whether this association has changed over a 15-year observation period.

METHODS

Three independent population-based surveys of CVRFs were conducted in representative samples of all adults aged 25-64 years in the Seychelles, a small island state located east to Kenya, in 1989 (N=1081), 1994 (N=1067) and 2004 (N=1255).

RESULTS

Among men, current smoking and heavy drinking were more prevalent in the low versus the high SES group, and obesity was less prevalent. The socioeconomic gradient in diabetes reversed over the study period from lower prevalence in the low versus the high SES group to higher prevalence in the low SES group. Hypercholesterolemia was less prevalent in the low versus the high SES group in 1989 but the prevalence was similar in the two groups in 2004. Hypertension showed no consistent socioeconomic pattern. Among women, the SES gradient in smoking tended to reverse over time from lower prevalence in the low SES group to lower prevalence in the high SES group. Obesity and diabetes were more common in the low versus the high SES group over the study period. Heavy drinking, hypertension and hypercholesterolemia were not socially patterned among women.

CONCLUSION

The prevalence of several CVRFs was higher in low versus high SES groups in a rapidly developing country in the African region, and an increase of the burden of these CVRFs in the most disadvantaged groups of the population was observed over the 15 years study period.

Association between obesity indices and cardiovascular risk factors in late adolescence in the Seychelles

Background

The ability of different obesity indices to predict cardiovascular risk is still debated in youth and few data are available in sub Saharan Africa. We compared the associations between several indices of obesity and cardiovascular risk factors (CVRFs) in late adolescence in the Seychelles.

Methods

We measured body mass index (BMI), waist circumference, waist/hip ratio (WHiR), waist/height ratio (WHtR) and percent fat mass (by bioimpedance) and 6 CVRFs (blood pressure, LDL-cholesterol, HDL-cholesterol, triglycerides, fasting blood glucose and uric acid) in 423 youths aged 19–20 years from the general population.

Results

The prevalence of overweight/obesity and several CVRFs was high, with substantial sex differences. Except for glucose in males and LDL-cholesterol in females, all obesity indices were associated with CVRFs. BMI consistently predicted CVRFs at least as well as the other indices. Linear regression on BMI had standardized regression coefficients of 0.25-0.36 for most CVRFs (p<0.01) and ROC analysis had an AUC between 60%-75% for most CVRFs. BMI also predicted well various combinations of CVRFs: 36% of male and 16% of female lean subjects (BMI <P50) had ≥2 CVRFs compared to 74% of male and 46% of female overweight subjects (BMI >P90).

Conclusion

There was an elevated prevalence of obesity and of several CVRFs in youths in Seychelles. BMI predicted single or combined CVRFs at least as well as other simple obesity indices.

Association between conventional risk factors and different ultrasound-based markers of atherosclerosis at carotid and femoral levels in a middle-aged population

Ultrasound detection of sub-clinical atherosclerosis (ATS) may help identify individuals at high cardiovascular risk. Most studies evaluated intima-media thickness (IMT) at carotid level. We compared the relationships between main cardiovascular risk factors (CVRF) and five indicators of ATS (IMT, mean and maximal plaque thickness, mean and maximal plaque area) at both carotid and femoral levels. Ultrasound was performed on 496 participants aged 45-64 years randomly selected from the general population of the Republic of Seychelles. 73.4 % participants had ≥ 1 plaque (IMT thickening ≥ 1.2 mm) at carotid level and 67.5 % at femoral level. Variance (adjusted R2) contributed by age, sex and CVRF (smoking, LDL-cholesterol, HDL-cholesterol, blood pressure, diabetes) in predicting any of the ATS markers was larger at femoral than carotid level. At both carotid and femoral levels, the association between CVRF and ATS was stronger based on plaque-based markers than IMT. Our findings show that the associations between CVRF and ATS markers were stronger at femoral than carotid level, and with plaque-based markers rather than IMT. Pending comparison of these markers using harder cardiovascular endpoints, our findings suggest that markers based on plaque morphology assessed at femoral artery level might be useful cardiovascular risk predictors.

1999-2009 Trends in prevalence, unawareness, treatment and control of hypertension in Geneva, Switzerland

Background

There are no time trends in prevalence, unawareness, treatment, and control of hypertension in Switzerland. The objective of this study was to analyze these trends and to determine the associated factors.

Methods/Findings

Population-based study conducted in the Canton of Geneva, Switzerland, between 1999 and 2009. Blood pressure was measured thrice using a standard protocol. Hypertension was defined as mean systolic or diastolic blood pressure ≥140/90 mmHg or self-reported hypertension or anti-hypertensive medication. Unawareness, untreated and uncontrolled hypertension was determined by questionnaires/blood pressure measurements. Yearly age-standardized prevalences and adjusted associations for the 1999–2003 and 2004–2009 survey periods were reported. The 10-year survey included 9,215 participants aged 35 to 74 years. Hypertension remained stable (34.4%). Hypertension unawareness decreased from 35.9% to 17.7% (P<0.001). The decrease in hypertension unawareness was not paralleled by a concomitant absolute increase in hypertension treatment, which remained low (38.2%). A larger proportion of all hypertensive participants were aware but not treated in 2004–2009 (43.7%) compared to 1999–2003 (33.1%). Uncontrolled hypertension improved from 62.2% to 40.6% between 1999 and 2009 (P = 0.02). In 1999–2003 period, factors associated with hypertension unawareness were current smoking (OR = 1.27, 95%CI, 1.02–1.59), male gender (OR = 1.56, 1.27–1.92), hypercholesterolemia (OR = 1.31, 1.20–1.44), and older age (OR 65–74yrs vs 35–49yrs  = 1.56, 1.21–2.02). In 1999–2003 and 2004–2009, obesity and diabetes were negatively associated with hypertension unawareness, high education was associated with untreated hypertension (OR = 1.45, 1.12–1.88 and 1.42, 1.02–1.99, respectively), and male gender with uncontrolled hypertension (OR = 1.49, 1.03–2.17 and 1.65, 1.08–2.50, respectively). Sedentarity was associated with higher risk of hypertension and uncontrolled hypertension in 1999–2003.

Conclusions

Hypertension prevalence remained stable since 1999 in the canton of Geneva. Although hypertension unawareness substantially decreased, more than half of hypertensive subjects still remained untreated or uncontrolled in 2004–2009. This study identified determinants that should guide interventions aimed at improving hypertension treatment and control.

Declining stroke and myocardial infarction mortality between 1989 and 2010 in a country of the african region

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

In low- and middle-income countries, the total burden of cardiovascular diseases is expected to increase due to demographic and epidemiological transitions. However, data on cause-specific mortality are lacking in sub-Saharan Africa. Seychelles is one of the few countries in the region where all deaths are registered and medically certified. In this study, we examine trends in mortality for stroke and myocardial infarction (MI) between 1989 and 2010.

METHODS

Based on vital statistics, we ascertained stroke and MI as the cause of death if appearing in any of the 4 fields for immediate, intermediate, underlying, and contributory causes in death certificates.

RESULTS

Mortality rates (per 100 000, age-standardized to World Health Organization standard population) decreased from 1669/710 (men/women) in 1989 to 1991 to 1113/535 in 2008-10 for all causes, from 250/140 to 141/86 for stroke, and from 117/51 to 59/24 for MI, corresponding to proportionate decreases of 33%/25% for all-cause mortality, 44%/39% for stroke, and 50%/53% for MI over 22 years. The absolute number of stroke and MI deaths did not increase over time. In 2008 to 2010, the median age of death was 65/78 years (men/women) for all causes, 68/78 for stroke, and 66/73 for MI.

CONCLUSIONS

Between 1989 and 2010, age-standardized stroke and MI mortality decreased markedly and more rapidly than all-cause mortality. The absolute number of cardiovascular disease deaths did not increase over time because the impact of population aging was fully compensated by the decline in cardiovascular disease mortality. Stroke mortality remained high, emphasizing the need to strengthen cardiovascular disease prevention and control.

Birth weight, weight change, and blood pressure during childhood and adolescence: a school-based multiple cohort study

OBJECTIVE

We assessed the association between birth weight, weight change, and current blood pressure (BP) across the entire age-span of childhood and adolescence in large school-based cohorts in the Seychelles, an island state in the African region.

METHODS

Three cohorts were analyzed: 1004 children examined at age 5.5 and 9.1 years, 1886 children at 9.1 and 12.5, and 1575 children at 12.5 and 15.5, respectively. Birth and 1-year anthropometric data were gathered from medical files. The outcome was BP at age 5.5, 9.1, 12.5 or 15.5 years, respectively. Conditional linear regression analysis was used to estimate the relative contribution of changes in weight (expressed in z-score) during different age periods on BP. All analyses were adjusted for height.

RESULTS

At all ages, current BP was strongly associated with current weight. Birth weight was not significantly associated with current BP. Upon adjustment for current weight, the association between birth weight and current BP tended to become negative. Conditional linear regression analyses indicated that changes in weight during successive age periods since birth contributed substantially to current BP at all ages. The strength of the association between weight change and current BP increased throughout successive age periods.

CONCLUSION

Weight changes during any age period since birth have substantial impact on BP during childhood and adolescence, with BP being more responsive to recent than earlier weight changes.

Relation between high-sensitivity C-reactive protein and cardiovascular and renal markers in a middle-income country in the African region

BACKGROUND

High-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP) is associated with several cardiovascular risk factors (CVRF) and with renal function markers. However, these associations have not been examined in populations in the African region. We analyzed the distribution of hs-CRP and the relationship with a broad set of CVRF, renal markers and carotid intima-media thickness (IMT), in the Seychelles (African region).

METHODS

We conducted a survey in the population aged 25-64 years (n=1255, participation rate: 80.2%). Analyses were restricted to persons of predominantly African descent (n=1011).

RESULTS

Mean and median hs-CRP serum concentrations (mg/l) were 3.1 (SD 7.6) and 1.4 (IQR 0.7-2.9) in men and 4.5 (SD 6.7) and 2.2 (IQR 1.0-5.4) in women (p<0.001 for difference between men and women). hs-CRP was significantly associated with several conventional CVRF, and particularly strongly with markers of adiposity. With regards to renal markers, hs-CRP was strongly associated with cystatin C and with microalbuminuria but not with creatinine. hs-CRP was not associated with IMT.

CONCLUSIONS

Serum concentration of hs-CRP was significantly associated with sex, several CVRF and selected renal function markers, which extends similar findings in Europe and in North America to a population in the African region. These findings can contribute to guide recommendations for the use of hs-CRP in clinical practice in the region.

Stability of the factorial structure of metabolic syndrome from childhood to adolescence: a 6-year follow-up study

Background

Metabolic syndrome (MS) is a clustering of cardiometabolic risk factors that is considered a predictor of cardiovascular disease, type 2 diabetes and mortality. There is no consistent evidence on whether the MS construct works in the same way in different populations and at different stages in life.

Methods

We used confirmatory factor analysis to examine if a single-factor-model including waist circumference, triglycerides/HDL-c, insulin and mean arterial pressure underlies metabolic syndrome from the childhood to adolescence in a 6-years follow-up study in 174 Swedish and 460 Estonian children aged 9 years at baseline. Indeed, we analyze the tracking of a previously validated MS index over this 6-years period.

Results

The estimates of goodness-of-fit for the single-factor-model underlying MS were acceptable both in children and adolescents. The construct stability of a new model including the differences from baseline to the end of the follow-up in the components of the proposed model displayed good fit indexes for the change, supporting the hypothesis of a single factor underlying MS component trends.

Conclusions

A single-factor-model underlying MS is stable across the puberty in both Estonian and Swedish young people. The MS index tracks acceptably from childhood to adolescence.

National, regional, and global trends in fasting plasma glucose and diabetes prevalence since 1980: systematic analysis of health examination surveys and epidemiological studies with 370 country-years and 2·7 million participants

BACKGROUND

Data for trends in glycaemia and diabetes prevalence are needed to understand the effects of diet and lifestyle within populations, assess the performance of interventions, and plan health services. No consistent and comparable global analysis of trends has been done. We estimated trends and their uncertainties in mean fasting plasma glucose (FPG) and diabetes prevalence for adults aged 25 years and older in 199 countries and territories.

METHODS

We obtained data from health examination surveys and epidemiological studies (370 country-years and 2·7 million participants). We converted systematically between different glycaemic metrics. For each sex, we used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate mean FPG and its uncertainty by age, country, and year, accounting for whether a study was nationally, subnationally, or community representative.

FINDINGS

In 2008, global age-standardised mean FPG was 5·50 mmol/L (95% uncertainty interval 5·37-5·63) for men and 5·42 mmol/L (5·29-5·54) for women, having risen by 0·07 mmol/L and 0·09 mmol/L per decade, respectively. Age-standardised adult diabetes prevalence was 9·8% (8·6-11·2) in men and 9·2% (8·0-10·5) in women in 2008, up from 8·3% (6·5-10·4) and 7·5% (5·8-9·6) in 1980. The number of people with diabetes increased from 153 (127-182) million in 1980, to 347 (314-382) million in 2008. We recorded almost no change in mean FPG in east and southeast Asia and central and eastern Europe. Oceania had the largest rise, and the highest mean FPG (6·09 mmol/L, 5·73-6·49 for men; 6·08 mmol/L, 5·72-6·46 for women) and diabetes prevalence (15·5%, 11·6-20·1 for men; and 15·9%, 12·1-20·5 for women) in 2008. Mean FPG and diabetes prevalence in 2008 were also high in south Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean, and central Asia, north Africa, and the Middle East. Mean FPG in 2008 was lowest in sub-Saharan Africa, east and southeast Asia, and high-income Asia-Pacific. In high-income subregions, western Europe had the smallest rise, 0·07 mmol/L per decade for men and 0·03 mmol/L per decade for women; North America had the largest rise, 0·18 mmol/L per decade for men and 0·14 mmol/L per decade for women.

INTERPRETATION

Glycaemia and diabetes are rising globally, driven both by population growth and ageing and by increasing age-specific prevalences. Effective preventive interventions are needed, and health systems should prepare to detect and manage diabetes and its sequelae.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and WHO.

National, regional, and global trends in systolic blood pressure since 1980: systematic analysis of health examination surveys and epidemiological studies with 786 country-years and 5·4 million participants

BACKGROUND

Data for trends in blood pressure are needed to understand the effects of its dietary, lifestyle, and pharmacological determinants; set intervention priorities; and evaluate national programmes. However, few worldwide analyses of trends in blood pressure have been done. We estimated worldwide trends in population mean systolic blood pressure (SBP).

METHODS

We estimated trends and their uncertainties in mean SBP for adults 25 years and older in 199 countries and territories. We obtained data from published and unpublished health examination surveys and epidemiological studies (786 country-years and 5·4 million participants). For each sex, we used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate mean SBP by age, country, and year, accounting for whether a study was nationally representative.

FINDINGS

In 2008, age-standardised mean SBP worldwide was 128·1 mm Hg (95% uncertainty interval 126·7-129·4) in men and 124·4 mm Hg (123·0-125·9) in women. Globally, between 1980 and 2008, SBP decreased by 0·8 mm Hg per decade (-0·4 to 2·2, posterior probability of being a true decline=0·90) in men and 1·0 mm Hg per decade (-0·3 to 2·3, posterior probability=0·93) in women. Female SBP decreased by 3·5 mm Hg or more per decade in western Europe and Australasia (posterior probabilities ≥0·999). Male SBP fell most in high-income North America, by 2·8 mm Hg per decade (1·3-4·5, posterior probability >0·999), followed by Australasia and western Europe where it decreased by more than 2·0 mm Hg per decade (posterior probabilities >0·98). SBP rose in Oceania, east Africa, and south and southeast Asia for both sexes, and in west Africa for women, with the increases ranging 0·8-1·6 mm Hg per decade in men (posterior probabilities 0·72-0·91) and 1·0-2·7 mm Hg per decade for women (posterior probabilities 0·75-0·98). Female SBP was highest in some east and west African countries, with means of 135 mm Hg or greater. Male SBP was highest in Baltic and east and west African countries, where mean SBP reached 138 mm Hg or more. Men and women in western Europe had the highest SBP in high-income regions.

INTERPRETATION

On average, global population SBP decreased slightly since 1980, but trends varied significantly across regions and countries. SBP is currently highest in low-income and middle-income countries. Effective population-based and personal interventions should be targeted towards low-income and middle-income countries.

FUNDING

Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and WHO.

National, regional, and global trends in serum total cholesterol since 1980: systematic analysis of health examination surveys and epidemiological studies with 321 country-years and 3·0 million participants

BACKGROUND

Data for trends in serum cholesterol are needed to understand the effects of its dietary, lifestyle, and pharmacological determinants; set intervention priorities; and evaluate national programmes. Previous analyses of trends in serum cholesterol were limited to a few countries, with no consistent and comparable global analysis. We estimated worldwide trends in population mean serum total cholesterol.

METHODS

We estimated trends and their uncertainties in mean serum total cholesterol for adults 25 years and older in 199 countries and territories. We obtained data from published and unpublished health examination surveys and epidemiological studies (321 country-years and 3·0 million participants). For each sex, we used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate mean total cholesterol by age, country, and year, accounting for whether a study was nationally representative.

FINDINGS

In 2008, age-standardised mean total cholesterol worldwide was 4·64 mmol/L (95% uncertainty interval 4·51-4·76) for men and 4·76 mmol/L (4·62-4·91) for women. Globally, mean total cholesterol changed little between 1980 and 2008, falling by less than 0·1 mmol/L per decade in men and women. Total cholesterol fell in the high-income region consisting of Australasia, North America, and western Europe, and in central and eastern Europe; the regional declines were about 0·2 mmol/L per decade for both sexes, with posterior probabilities of these being true declines 0·99 or greater. Mean total cholesterol increased in east and southeast Asia and Pacific by 0·08 mmol/L per decade (-0·06 to 0·22, posterior probability=0·86) in men and 0·09 mmol/L per decade (-0·07 to 0·26, posterior probability=0·86) in women. Despite converging trends, serum total cholesterol in 2008 was highest in the high-income region consisting of Australasia, North America, and western Europe; the regional mean was 5·24 mmol/L (5·08-5·39) for men and 5·23 mmol/L (5·03-5·43) for women. It was lowest in sub-Saharan Africa at 4·08 mmol/L (3·82-4·34) for men and 4·27 mmol/L (3·99-4·56) for women.

INTERPRETATION

Nutritional policies and pharmacological interventions should be used to accelerate improvements in total cholesterol in regions with decline and to curb or prevent the rise in Asian populations and elsewhere. Population-based surveillance of cholesterol needs to be improved in low-income and middle-income countries.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and WHO.

Challenges and opportunities for cardiovascular disease prevention

Cardiovascular diseases are highly preventable, yet they remain the most common cause of death in the world. The epidemic is receding in industrialized countries; however, many low-income and middle-income countries have experienced an increase in cardiovascular diseases and 80% of all cardiovascular diseases deaths occur there. In the last 20 years, the epidemiology and surveillance of cardiovascular diseases have laid the foundations for public health interventions that may reduce the burden of disease. Relevant population-specific local data are therefore needed to describe the trends and pattern of risk for atherosclerotic diseases. Once the basis for surveillance and epidemiological research has been laid, cardiovascular disease prevention will require approaches adapted for each individual and population. The existence of effective preventive interventions justifies the assertion that coronary heart disease and stroke could be virtually prevented and controlled. Our goal in this review is to summarize the current challenges and opportunities for cardiovascular medicine, focusing on the need for high-quality local surveillance systems that provide the appropriate data needed to develop sound national cardiovascular disease preventive policies.

Addressing non-communicable diseases in the Seychelles: towards a comprehensive plan of action

This article reviews the different steps taken during the past 20 years for the prevention and control of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) in the Seychelles. National surveys revealed high levels of several cardiovascular risk factors and prompted an organized response, starting with the creation of an NCD unit in the Ministry of Health. Information campaigns and nationwide activities raised awareness and rallied increasingly broad and high-level support. Significant policy was developed including comprehensive tobacco legislation and a School Nutrition Policy that bans soft drinks in schools. NCD guidelines were developed and specialized 'NCD nurses' were trained to complement doctors in district health centers. Decreasing smoking prevalence is evidence of success, but the raising so-called diabesity epidemic calls for an integrated multi-sector policy to mould an environment conducive to healthy behaviors. Essential components of these efforts include: effective surveillance mechanisms supplemented by focused research; generating broad interest and consensus; mobilizing leadership and commitment at all levels; involving local and international expertise; building on existing efforts; and seeking integrated, multi-disciplinary and multi-sector approaches.