Optimally timing primaquine treatment to reduce Plasmodium falciparum transmission in low endemicity Thai-Myanmar border populations

A Model for Assessing the Quantitative Effects of Heterogeneous Affinity in Malaria Transmission along with Ivermectin Mass Administration

Using an agent-based model of malaria, we present numerical evidence that in communities of individuals having an affinity varying within a broad range of values, disease transmission may increase up to 300%. Moreover, our findings provide new insight into how to combine different strategies for the prevention of malaria transmission. In particular, we uncover a relationship between the level of heterogeneity and the level of conventional and unconventional anti-malarial drug administration (ivermectin and gametocidal agents), which, when taken together, will define a control parameter, tuning between disease persistence and elimination. Finally, we also provide evidence that the entomological inoculation rate, as well as the product between parasite and sporozoite rates are both good indicators of malaria incidence in the presence of heterogeneity in disease transmission and may configure a possible improvement in that setting, upon classical standard measures such as the basic reproductive number.

Electrocardiographic safety evaluation of extended artemether-lumefantrine treatment in patients with uncomplicated Plasmodium falciparum malaria in Bagamoyo District, Tanzania

Background

Extended artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT) for treatment of uncomplicated Plasmodium falciparum malaria with already existing drug regimens, such as artemether-lumefantrine, might be effective in tackling the emerging ACT resistance. However, given the history of cardiotoxicity among anti-malarial drugs structurally similar to lumefantrine, the potential effect of extended artemether-lumefantrine treatment on the electrocardiographic (ECG) QTc interval is of high concern.

Methods

Male and non-pregnant females aged 1–65 years, diagnosed with uncomplicated P. falciparum malaria in Bagamoyo district, Tanzania, were randomized into two arms. The intervention arm received an extended, i.e. 6-day, course of artemether-lumefantrine and an additional single low-dose primaquine (0.25 mg/kg) administered together with the last artemether-lumefantrine dose. The control arm received the standard weight-based 3-day course. ECGs were performed at day 0 and 4–5 h after the last dose at day 5. QT intervals were read manually using the tangent method and automatically. Bazett’s (QTcB) and Fridericia’s (QTcF) formulae were used for correction for heart rate. Descriptive statistics were used to calculate baseline characteristics and the number of supra-thresholds QTc intervals (QTc prolongation > 500, change in QTc interval (ΔQTc) > 60 ms). The mean change in QTc interval in and between the two arms was compared using the paired t-test and independent samples t-test, respectively.

Results

A total of 195 patients were enrolled, 103 and 92 in the intervention and control arm, respectively. No patient experienced QTc intervals > 500 ms on day 5 by both formulae. Patients with ΔQTc > 60 ms, for QTcF were 6/103 (5.8%) vs 2/92 (2.2%) and for QTcB 2/103 (1.9%) vs 1/92 (1.1%) in the intervention and control arms, respectively. The mean difference in ΔQTc interval was statistically significant between the two arms with both correction formulae, 11.4 ms (95% CI 2.7–20.0, p = 0.010) and 13.4 ms (95% CI 5.3–21.5, p = 0.001), for QTcB and QTcF, respectively.

Conclusion

The extended 6-day course of artemether-lumefantrine did not reveal clinically relevant QTc prolonging effects. However, significant QTcF prolongation and presence of patients with supra-threshold QTc values observed in the intervention arm underscore the importance of further monitoring of QTc parameters in extended artemether-lumefantrine treatment.

Trial registration ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT03241901. Registered July 27, 2017. https://clinicaltrials.gov/show/NCT03241901

Parasite clearance, cure rate, post-treatment prophylaxis and safety of standard 3-day versus an extended 6-day treatment of artemether-lumefantrine and a single low-dose primaquine for uncomplicated Plasmodium falciparum malaria in Bagamoyo district, Tanzania: a randomized controlled trial

Background

Artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT) resistant Plasmodium falciparum represents an increasing threat to Africa. Extended ACT regimens from standard 3 to 6 days may represent a means to prevent its development and potential spread in Africa.

Methods

Standard 3-day treatment with artemether–lumefantrine (control) was compared to extended 6-day treatment and single low-dose primaquine (intervention); in a randomized controlled, parallel group, superiority clinical trial of patients aged 1–65 years with microscopy confirmed uncomplicated P. falciparum malaria, enrolled in Bagamoyo district, Tanzania. The study evaluated parasite clearance, including proportion of PCR detectable P. falciparum on days 5 and 7 (primary endpoint), cure rate, post-treatment prophylaxis, safety and tolerability. Clinical, and laboratory assessments, including ECG were conducted during 42 days of follow-up. Blood samples were collected for parasite detection (by microscopy and PCR), molecular genotyping and pharmacokinetic analyses. Kaplan–Meier survival analyses were done for both parasite clearance and recurrence.

Results

A total of 280 patients were enrolled, 141 and 139 in the control and intervention arm, respectively, of whom 121 completed 42 days follow-up in each arm. There was no difference in proportion of PCR positivity across the arms at day 5 (80/130 (61.5%) vs 89/134 (66.4%), p = 0.44), or day 7 (71/129 (55.0%) vs 70/134 (52.2%), p = 0.71). Day 42 microscopy determined cure rates (PCR adjusted) were 97.4% (100/103) and 98.3% (110/112), p = 0.65, in the control and intervention arm, respectively. Microscopy determined crude recurrent parasitaemia during follow-up was 21/121 (17.4%) in the control and 14/121 (11.6%) in the intervention arm, p = 0.20, and it took 34 days and 42 days in the respective arms for 90% of the patients to remain without recurrent parasitaemia. Lumefantrine exposure was significantly higher in intervention arm from D3 to D42, but cardiac, biochemical and haematological safety was high and similar in both arms.

Conclusion

Extended 6-day artemether–lumefantrine treatment and a single low-dose of primaquine was not superior to standard 3-day treatment for ACT sensitive P. falciparum infections but, importantly, equally efficacious and safe. Thus, extended artemether–lumefantrine treatment may be considered as a future treatment regimen for ACT resistant P. falciparum, to prolong the therapeutic lifespan of ACT in Africa.

Trial registration ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT03241901. Registered July 27, 2017 https://clinicaltrials.gov/show/NCT03241901

Modelling the benefits of long-acting or transmission-blocking drugs for reducing Plasmodium falciparum transmission by case management or by mass treatment

Background

Anti-malarial drugs are an important tool for malaria control and elimination. Alongside their direct benefit in the treatment of disease, drug use has a community-level effect, clearing the reservoir of infection and reducing onward transmission of the parasite. Different compounds potentially have different impacts on transmission—with some providing periods of prolonged chemoprophylaxis whilst others have greater transmission-blocking potential. The aim was to quantify the relative benefit of such properties for transmission reduction to inform target product profiles in the drug development process and choice of first-line anti-malarial treatment in different endemic settings.

Methods

A mathematical model of Plasmodium falciparum epidemiology was used to estimate the transmission reduction that can be achieved by using drugs of varying chemoprophylactic (protection for 3, 30 or 60 days) or transmission-blocking activity (blocking 79, 92 or 100% of total onward transmission). Simulations were conducted at low, medium or high transmission intensity (slide-prevalence in 2–10 year olds being 1, 10 or 40%, respectively), with drugs administered either via case management or mass drug administration (MDA).

Results

Transmission reductions depend strongly on deployment strategy, treatment coverage and endemicity level. Transmission-blocking was most effective at low endemicity, whereas chemoprophylaxis was most useful at high endemicity levels. Increasing the duration of protection as much as possible was beneficial. Increasing transmission-blocking activity from the level of ACT to a 100% transmission-blocking drug (close to the effect estimated for ACT combined with primaquine) produced moderate impact but was not as effective as increasing the duration of protection in medium-to-high transmission settings (slide prevalence 10–40%). Combining both good transmission-blocking activity (e.g. as achieved by ACT or ACT + primaquine) and a long duration of protection (30 days or more, such as provided by piperaquine or mefloquine) within a drug regimen can substantially increase impact compared with drug regimens with only one of these properties in medium to high transmission areas (slide-prevalence in 2–10 year olds ~10 to 40%). These results applied whether the anti-malarials were used for case management or for MDA.

Discussion

These results emphasise the importance of increasing access to treatment for routine case management, and the potential value of choosing first-line anti-malarial treatment policies according to local malaria epidemiology to maximise impact on transmission. There is no indication that the optimal drug choice should differ between delivery via case management or MDA.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12936-017-1988-4) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Optimal control of a malaria model with asymptomatic class and superinfection

In this paper, we introduce a malaria model with an asymptomatic class in human population and exposed classes in both human and vector populations. The model assumes that asymptomatic individuals can get re-infected and move to the symptomatic class. In the case of an incomplete treatment, symptomatic individuals move to the asymptomatic class. If successfully treated, the symptomatic individuals recover and move to the susceptible class. The basic reproduction number, R₀, is computed using the next generation approach. The system has a disease-free equilibrium (DFE) which is locally asymptomatically stable when R₀<1, and may have up to four endemic equilibria. The model exhibits backward bifurcation generated by two mechanisms; standard incidence and superinfection. If the model does not allow for superinfection or deaths due to the disease, then DFE is globally stable which suggests that backward bifurcation is no longer possible. Simulations suggest that total prevalence of malaria is the highest if all individuals show symptoms upon infection, but then undergoes an incomplete treatment and the lowest when all the individuals first move to the symptomatic class then treated successfully. Total prevalence is average if more individuals upon infection move to the asymptomatic class. We study optimal control strategies applied to bed-net use and treatment as main tools for reducing the total number of symptomatic and asymptomatic individuals. Simulations suggest that the optimal control strategies are very dynamic. Although they always lead to decrease in the symptomatic infectious individuals, they may lead to increase in the number of asymptomatic infectious individuals. This last scenario occurs if a large portion of newly infected individuals move to the symptomatic class but many of them do not complete treatment or if they all complete treatment but the superinfection rate of asymptomatic individuals is average.

Transmission-blocking strategies: the roadmap from laboratory bench to the community

Malaria remains one of the most prevalent tropical and infectious diseases in the world, with an estimated more than 200 million clinical cases every year. In recent years, the mosquito stages of the parasite life cycle have received renewed attention with some progress being made in the development of transmission-blocking strategies. From gametocytes to late ookinetes, some attractive antigenic targets have been found and tested in order to develop a transmission blocking vaccine, and drugs are being currently screened for gametocytocidal activity, and also some new and less conventional approaches are drawing increased attention, such as genetically modified and fungus-infected mosquitoes that become refractory to Plasmodium infection. In this review some of those strategies focusing on the progress made so far will be summarized, but also, the challenges that come from the translation of early promising benchwork resulting in successful applications in the field. To do this, the available literature will be screened and all the pieces of the puzzle must be combined: from molecular biology to epidemiologic and clinical data.

Leading indicators of mosquito-borne disease elimination

Mosquito-borne diseases contribute significantly to the global disease burden. High-profile elimination campaigns are currently underway for many parasites, e.g., Plasmodium spp., the causal agent of malaria. Sustaining momentum near the end of elimination programs is often difficult to achieve and consequently quantitative tools that enable monitoring the effectiveness of elimination activities after the initial reduction of cases has occurred are needed. Documenting progress in vector-borne disease elimination is a potentially important application for the theory of critical transitions. Non-parametric approaches that are independent of model-fitting would advance infectious disease forecasting significantly. In this paper, we consider compartmental Ross-McDonald models that are slowly forced through a critical transition through gradually deployed control measures. We derive expressions for the behavior of candidate indicators, including the autocorrelation coefficient, variance, and coefficient of variation in the number of human cases during the approach to elimination. We conducted a simulation study to test the performance of each summary statistic as an early warning system of mosquito-borne disease elimination. Variance and coefficient of variation were highly predictive of elimination but autocorrelation performed poorly as an indicator in some control contexts. Our results suggest that tipping points (bifurcations) in mosquito-borne infectious disease systems may be foreshadowed by characteristic temporal patterns of disease prevalence.

A Stochastic Model to Study Rift Valley Fever Persistence with Different Seasonal Patterns of Vector Abundance: New Insights on the Endemicity in the Tropical Island of Mayotte

Rift Valley fever (RVF) is a zoonotic vector-borne disease causing abortion storms in cattle and human epidemics in Africa. Our aim was to evaluate RVF persistence in a seasonal and isolated population and to apply it to Mayotte Island (Indian Ocean), where the virus was still silently circulating four years after its last known introduction in 2007. We proposed a stochastic model to estimate RVF persistence over several years and under four seasonal patterns of vector abundance. Firstly, the model predicted a wide range of virus spread patterns, from obligate persistence in a constant or tropical environment (without needing vertical transmission or reintroduction) to frequent extinctions in a drier climate. We then identified for each scenario of seasonality the parameters that most influenced prediction variations. Persistence was sensitive to vector lifespan and biting rate in a tropical climate, and to host viraemia duration and vector lifespan in a drier climate. The first epizootic peak was primarily sensitive to viraemia duration and thus likely to be controlled by vaccination, whereas subsequent peaks were sensitive to vector lifespan and biting rate in a tropical climate, and to host birth rate and viraemia duration in arid climates. Finally, we parameterized the model according to Mayotte known environment. Mosquito captures estimated the abundance of eight potential RVF vectors. Review of RVF competence studies on these species allowed adjusting transmission probabilities per bite. Ruminant serological data since 2004 and three new cross-sectional seroprevalence studies are presented. Transmission rates had to be divided by more than five to best fit observed data. Five years after introduction, RVF persisted in more than 10% of the simulations, even under this scenario of low transmission. Hence, active surveillance must be maintained to better understand the risk related to RVF persistence and to prevent new introductions.

The gametocytocidal efficacy of primaquine in malaria asymptomatic carriers treated with dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine in The Gambia (PRINOGAM): study protocol for a randomised controlled trial

BACKGROUND

Finding efficacious tools to decrease and interrupt malaria transmission is essential to sustain the gains in malaria control and contain the emergence of artemisinin resistance. Primaquine is effective against Plasmodium falciparum gametocytes and recommended for treatment campaigns in (pre-)elimination settings. Safety concerns preclude its use in endemic African countries with variable proportions of glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase (G6PD)-deficient individuals. The efficacy of the current recommended dose needs to be evaluated, particularly in individuals with an asymptomatic malaria infection.

METHODS/DESIGN

This is a four-arm, open label, randomized controlled trial that aims to determine and compare the effect of three different single doses of primaquine combined with dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine, an artemisinin-based combination therapy, on gametocyte carriage in asymptomatic, malaria infected, G6PD-normal individuals. Approximately 1,200 participants are enrolled and followed for 42 days, with the primary endpoint being the prevalence of Plasmodium falciparum gametocyte carriage at day 7 of follow-up determined by quantitative nucleic acid sequence based amplification assay. Direct membrane feeding experiments to determine infectiousness to mosquitoes are conducted as a biological secondary endpoint.

DISCUSSION

Sub-Saharan Africa, with a relatively high but poorly characterized G6PD prevalence, could potentially benefit from the use of primaquine to further reduce or interrupt malaria transmission. However, G6PD screening may not be feasible given the cost and difficulties in interpreting test results in terms of risk of haemolysis. Because the haemolytic effect of primaquine is dose-dependent, determining the minimal gametocytocidal and transmission-blocking dose of primaquine is extremely important to help address public health concerns over its safety and validate the efficacy of lower than recommended dosages. By including infectiousness to mosquitoes, the trial provides complementary evidence for the potential of the drug to interrupt transmission to mosquitoes.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT01838902 (12 April 2013).

Combination therapy--a way to forestall artemisinin resistance and optimize uncomplicated malaria treatment

Artemisinin resistance represents a global concern, which requires a concerted and coordinated effort at a global level. Lessons learned from the experience of drug combination therapies in HIV, TB, and HCV infections showed that combination therapies reduce the risk of drug resistance development. In order to maximize the effectiveness of artemisinin and its derivates and to protect it from the development of resistance, WHO recommended that they should be combined with other drugs that have different mechanisms of action and longer half-lives. Until the attainment of new pharmaceuticals, artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT) is the way to forestall artemisinin resistance and optimize uncomplicated malaria treatment.

Strategic use of antimalarial drugs that block falciparum malaria parasite transmission to mosquitoes to achieve local malaria elimination

The ultimate aim of malaria chemotherapy is not only to treat symptomatic infection but also to reduce transmission potential. With the absence of clinically proven vaccines, drug-mediated blocking of malaria transmission gains growing interest in the research agenda for malaria control and elimination. In addition to the limited arsenal of antimalarials available, the situation is further complicated by the fact that most commonly used antimalarials are being extensively resisted by the parasite and do not assist in blocking its transmission to vectors. Most antimalarials do not exhibit gametocytocidal and/ or sporontocidal activity against the sexual stages of Plasmodium falciparum but may even enhance gametocytogenesis and gametocyte transmissibility. Artemisinin derivatives and 8-aminoquinolines are useful transmission-blocking antimalarials whose optimal actions are on different stages of gametocytes. Transmission control interventions that include gametocytocides covering the spectrum of gametocyte development should be used to reduce and, if possible, stop transmission and infectivity of gametocytes to mosquitoes. Potent gametocytocidal drugs could also help deter the spread of antimalarial drug resistance. Novel proof-of-concept compounds with gametocytocidal activity, such as trioxaquines, synthetic endoperoxides, and spiroindolone, should be further tested for possible clinical utility before investigating the possibility of integrating them in transmission-reducing interventions. Strategic use of potent gametocytocides at appropriate timing with artemisinin-based combination therapies should be given attention, at least, in the short run. This review highlights the role that antimalarials could play in blocking gametocyte transmission and infectivity to mosquitoes and, hence, in reducing the potential of falciparum malaria transmissibility and drug resistance spread.

Recasting the theory of mosquito-borne pathogen transmission dynamics and control

Mosquito-borne diseases pose some of the greatest challenges in public health, especially in tropical and sub-tropical regions of the world. Efforts to control these diseases have been underpinned by a theoretical framework developed for malaria by Ross and Macdonald, including models, metrics for measuring transmission, and theory of control that identifies key vulnerabilities in the transmission cycle. That framework, especially Macdonald's formula for R₀ and its entomological derivative, vectorial capacity, are now used to study dynamics and design interventions for many mosquito-borne diseases. A systematic review of 388 models published between 1970 and 2010 found that the vast majority adopted the Ross–Macdonald assumption of homogeneous transmission in a well-mixed population. Studies comparing models and data question these assumptions and point to the capacity to model heterogeneous, focal transmission as the most important but relatively unexplored component in current theory. Fine-scale heterogeneity causes transmission dynamics to be nonlinear, and poses problems for modeling, epidemiology and measurement. Novel mathematical approaches show how heterogeneity arises from the biology and the landscape on which the processes of mosquito biting and pathogen transmission unfold. Emerging theory focuses attention on the ecological and social context for mosquito blood feeding, the movement of both hosts and mosquitoes, and the relevant spatial scales for measuring transmission and for modeling dynamics and control.

Modeling within-host effects of drugs on Plasmodium falciparum transmission and prospects for malaria elimination

Achieving a theoretical foundation for malaria elimination will require a detailed understanding of the quantitative relationships between patient treatment-seeking behavior, treatment coverage, and the effects of curative therapies that also block Plasmodium parasite transmission to mosquito vectors. Here, we report a mechanistic, within-host mathematical model that uses pharmacokinetic (PK) and pharmacodynamic (PD) data to simulate the effects of artemisinin-based combination therapies (ACTs) on Plasmodium falciparum transmission. To contextualize this model, we created a set of global maps of the fold reductions that would be necessary to reduce the malaria R C (i.e. its basic reproductive number under control) to below 1 and thus interrupt transmission. This modeling was applied to low-transmission settings, defined as having a R 0<10 based on 2010 data. Our modeling predicts that treating 93-98% of symptomatic infections with an ACT within five days of fever onset would interrupt malaria transmission for ∼91% of the at-risk population of Southeast Asia and ∼74% of the global at-risk population, and lead these populations towards malaria elimination. This level of treatment coverage corresponds to an estimated 81-85% of all infected individuals in these settings. At this coverage level with ACTs, the addition of the gametocytocidal agent primaquine affords no major gains in transmission reduction. Indeed, we estimate that it would require switching ∼180 people from ACTs to ACTs plus primaquine to achieve the same transmission reduction as switching a single individual from untreated to treated with ACTs. Our model thus predicts that the addition of gametocytocidal drugs to treatment regimens provides very small population-wide benefits and that the focus of control efforts in Southeast Asia should be on increasing prompt ACT coverage. Prospects for elimination in much of Sub-Saharan Africa appear far less favorable currently, due to high rates of infection and less frequent and less rapid treatment.

A sticky situation: the unexpected stability of malaria elimination

Malaria eradication involves eliminating malaria from every country where transmission occurs. Current theory suggests that the post-elimination challenges of remaining malaria-free by stopping transmission from imported malaria will have onerous operational and financial requirements. Although resurgent malaria has occurred in a majority of countries that tried but failed to eliminate malaria, a review of resurgence in countries that successfully eliminated finds only four such failures out of 50 successful programmes. Data documenting malaria importation and onwards transmission in these countries suggests malaria transmission potential has declined by more than 50-fold (i.e. more than 98%) since before elimination. These outcomes suggest that elimination is a surprisingly stable state. Elimination's ‘stickiness’ must be explained either by eliminating countries starting off qualitatively different from non-eliminating countries or becoming different once elimination was achieved. Countries that successfully eliminated were wealthier and had lower baseline endemicity than those that were unsuccessful, but our analysis shows that those same variables were at best incomplete predictors of the patterns of resurgence. Stability is reinforced by the loss of immunity to disease and by the health system's increasing capacity to control malaria transmission after elimination through routine treatment of cases with antimalarial drugs supplemented by malaria outbreak control. Human travel patterns reinforce these patterns; as malaria recedes, fewer people carry malaria from remote endemic areas to remote areas where transmission potential remains high. Establishment of an international resource with backup capacity to control large outbreaks can make elimination stickier, increase the incentives for countries to eliminate, and ensure steady progress towards global eradication. Although available evidence supports malaria elimination's stickiness at moderate-to-low transmission in areas with well-developed health systems, it is not yet clear if such patterns will hold in all areas. The sticky endpoint changes the projected costs of maintaining elimination and makes it substantially more attractive for countries acting alone, and it makes spatially progressive elimination a sensible strategy for a malaria eradication endgame.

Predicting mosquito infection from Plasmodium falciparum gametocyte density and estimating the reservoir of infection

Transmission reduction is a key component of global efforts to control and eliminate malaria; yet, it is unclear how the density of transmission stages (gametocytes) influences infection (proportion of mosquitoes infected). Human to mosquito transmission was assessed using 171 direct mosquito feeding assays conducted in Burkina Faso and Kenya. Plasmodiumfalciparum infects Anopheles gambiae efficiently at low densities (4% mosquitoes at 1/µl blood), although substantially more (>200/µl) are required to increase infection further. In a site in Burkina Faso, children harbour more gametocytes than adults though the non-linear relationship between gametocyte density and mosquito infection means that (per person) they only contribute slightly more to transmission. This method can be used to determine the reservoir of infection in different endemic settings. Interventions reducing gametocyte density need to be highly effective in order to halt human–mosquito transmission, although their use can be optimised by targeting those contributing the most to transmission.

DOI:http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.00626.001

Malaria is one of the world’s most deadly infectious diseases. The most severe form is caused by the parasite Plasmodium falciparum, which can reside within red blood cells and thus evade the human immune system.

Plasmodium is transmitted between humans by mosquitoes. When a mosquito takes a blood meal from an individual infected with the parasite, the insect ingests Plasmodium gametocytes (i.e., eggs and sperm), and these go on to reproduce in the gut of the mosquito. These parasites then move to the mosquito’s salivary glands, to be injected into the next person whom the mosquito bites.

Although malaria is both preventable and curable, the mortality rates in many African countries remain high, especially among children. Reducing the transmission of malaria to mosquitoes is one of the primary goals in the global effort to control and eliminate the disease. While a range of drugs and vaccines that specifically try to reduce transmission are in development, non-medical interventions such as mosquito nets and insecticide spraying can quickly and effectively reduce infection rates.

Here, Churcher et al. examine the dynamics of human to mosquito transmission of P. falciparum, and report that the ease with which mosquitoes become infected is not directly proportional to the density of parasite gametocytes in human blood. They found that the transmission occurs readily at very low gametocyte densities. Moreover, the transmission rate remains relatively stable as the density increases, before increasing significantly when the density reaches around 200 cells per microlitre.

Churcher et al. also challenge the assumption that children are mostly responsible for transmitting the malaria parasite by suggesting that, in certain locations, there is a more significant role for adults than previously assumed. By identifying the groups that contribute most to transmission, and targeting resources to reduce gametocyte density in those individuals, it could be possible to greatly reduce the number of infected mosquitoes and, therefore, the number of infected humans.

DOI:http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.00626.002

Malaria's missing number: calculating the human component of R0 by a within-host mechanistic model of Plasmodium falciparum infection and transmission

Human infection by malarial parasites of the genus Plasmodium begins with the bite of an infected Anopheles mosquito. Current estimates place malaria mortality at over 650,000 individuals each year, mostly in African children. Efforts to reduce disease burden can benefit from the development of mathematical models of disease transmission. To date, however, comprehensive modeling of the parameters defining human infectivity to mosquitoes has remained elusive. Here, we describe a mechanistic within-host model of Plasmodium falciparum infection in humans and pathogen transmission to the mosquito vector. Our model incorporates the entire parasite lifecycle, including the intra-erythrocytic asexual forms responsible for disease, the onset of symptoms, the development and maturation of intra-erythrocytic gametocytes that are transmissible to Anopheles mosquitoes, and human-to-mosquito infectivity. These model components were parameterized from malaria therapy data and other studies to simulate individual infections, and the ensemble of outputs was found to reproduce the full range of patient responses to infection. Using this model, we assessed human infectivity over the course of untreated infections and examined the effects in relation to transmission intensity, expressed by the basic reproduction number R₀ (defined as the number of secondary cases produced by a single typical infection in a completely susceptible population). Our studies predict that net human-to-mosquito infectivity from a single non-immune individual is on average equal to 32 fully infectious days. This estimate of mean infectivity is equivalent to calculating the human component of malarial R₀. We also predict that mean daily infectivity exceeds five percent for approximately 138 days. The mechanistic framework described herein, made available as stand-alone software, will enable investigators to conduct detailed studies into theories of malaria control, including the effects of drug treatment and drug resistance on transmission.

We report a new mathematical model of the progression, within a human host, of a malaria infection caused by the parasite Plasmodium falciparum. This model incorporates probability distributions for the key parameters of infection and transmission so that model outputs match the entire range of observed responses in patients, without the requirement for fitting individual data. Further, we simulate the daily densities of both the disease-causing and transmissible forms of the parasite within an individual, as well as the onset of fever and the probability of parasite transmission to mosquitoes. This model allows us to reproduce aspects of infection that are critical for malaria control modeling. As a first application, we calculate the net infectiousness of humans to mosquitoes and predict that net human infectivity from a single infection is on average equal to approximately 32 fully infectious days. This value has been used to help map the worldwide intensity of malaria transmission. We also predict that mean daily infectivity is greater than five percent for approximately 138 days. Our modeling framework, available as downloadable software, will allow researchers to probe the effects of treatment and drug resistance on malaria transmission in unprecedented detail, helping to improve malaria control efforts.

Nonrandomized controlled trial of artesunate plus sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine with or without primaquine for preventing posttreatment circulation of Plasmodium falciparum gametocytes

Artemisinin combination therapies eliminate immature Plasmodium falciparum gametocytes but not mature gametocytes, which may persist for up to 1 month posttreatment. A single dose of primaquine, which is inexpensive and effective against mature gametocytes, could be added to further reduce the potential for posttreatment parasite transmission. Currently, we have few data regarding the effectiveness or safety of doing so. We collected data from 21 therapeutic efficacy trials of the National Antimalarial Drug Resistance Monitoring System of India conducted during 2009 to 2010, wherein 9 sites used single-dose primaquine (0.75 mg/kg of body weight) administered on day 2 along with artesunate plus sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine (AS+SP) while 12 did not. We estimated the effect of primaquine on posttreatment gametocyte clearance and the total number of gametocyte-weeks as determined by microscopy. We compared the median area under the curve for gametocyte density and reported adverse events. One thousand three hundred thirty-five patients completed the antimalarial drug treatment. Adjusting for region, primaquine increased the rate of gametocyte clearance (hazard ratio, 1.9; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.1 to 3.3), prevented 45% (95% CI, 19 to 62) of posttreatment gametocyte-weeks, and decreased the area under the gametocyte density curve over the 28-day follow-up compared to AS+SP alone (P value = 0.01). The results were robust to other adjustment sets, and the estimated effect of primaquine increased during sensitivity analysis on the measurement of exposure time. No serious adverse events were detected. In conclusion, the addition of primaquine to AS+SP was effective in reducing the posttreatment presence of P. falciparum gametocytes. Primaquine was well tolerated and could be administered along with an artemisinin combination therapy as the first-line therapy.

Modeling the human infectious reservoir for malaria control: does heterogeneity matter?

The complex biological relationships underlying malaria transmission make it difficult to predict the impact of interventions. Mathematical models simplify these relationships and capture essential components of malaria transmission and epidemiology. Models designed to predict the impact of control programs generally infer a relationship between transmission intensity and human infectiousness to the mosquito, requiring assumptions about how infectiousness varies between individuals. A lack of understanding of human infectiousness precludes a standard approach to this inference, however, and field data reveal no obvious correlation between transmission intensity and human population infectiousness. We argue that model assumptions will have important consequences for predicting the impact of control programs.

Impact of enhanced malaria control on the competition between Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax in India

The primary focus of malaria research and control has been on Plasmodium falciparum, the most severe of the four Plasmodium species causing human disease. However, the presence of both P. falciparum and Plasmodium vivax occurs in several countries, including India. We developed a mathematical model describing the dynamics of P. vivax and P. falciparum in the human and mosquito populations and fit this model to Indian clinical case data to understand how enhanced control measures affect the competition between the two Plasmodium species. Around 1997, funding for malaria control in India increased dramatically. Our model predicts that if India had not improved its control strategy, the two species of Plasmodium would continue to coexist. To determine which control measures contributed the most to the decline in the number of cases after 1997, we compared the fit of seven models to the 1997-2010 clinical case data. From this, we determined that increased use of bednets contributed the most to case reduction. During the enhanced control period, the best model predicts that P. vivax is out-competing P. falciparum. However, the reproduction numbers are extremely close to the invasion boundaries. Consequently, we cannot be confident that this outcome is the true future of malaria in India. We address this uncertainty by performing a parametric bootstrapping procedure for each of the seven models. This procedure, applied to the enhanced control period, revealed that the best model predicts that P. vivax outcompeting P. falciparum is the most likely outcome, whereas the remaining candidate models predict the opposite. Moreover, the predictions of the top model are counter to what one expects based on the case data alone. Although the proportion of cases due to falciparum has been increasing, the best fitting model reveals that this observation is insufficient to draw conclusions about the longterm competitive outcome of the two species.

Transitioning from malaria control to elimination: the vital role of ACTs

Artemisinin-based combination therapies (ACTs) have been instrumental in reducing malaria burden. Many countries report geographical areas with reduced levels of endemic disease. As the transition is made from malaria control to elimination, new ways of using existing treatments are being considered. In this opinion paper, the requirements for the continued success of ACTs, their role in this transition, and possible new ways of using these drugs in an elimination setting are discussed. ACTs have an important role to play in maintaining the current success of control programs, and may also drive these successes forward into the widespread elimination of malaria.

The effect of primaquine on gametocyte development and clearance in the treatment of uncomplicated falciparum malaria with dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine in South sumatra, Western indonesia: an open-label, randomized, controlled trial

BACKGROUND

Artemisinin-based combination therapy is very effective in clearing asexual stages of malaria and reduces gametocytemia, but may not affect mature gametocytes. Primaquine is the only commercially available drug that eliminates mature gametocytes.

METHODS

We conducted a 2-arm, open-label, randomized, controlled trial to evaluate the efficacy of single-dose primaquine (0.75 mg/kg) following treatment with dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine (DHP) on Plasmodium falciparum gametocytemia, in Indonesia. Patients aged ≥5 years with uncomplicated falciparum malaria, normal glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase enzyme levels, and hemoglobin levels ≥8 g/dL were assigned by computerized-generating sequence to a standard 3-day course of DHP alone (n = 178) or DHP combined with a single dose of primaquine on day 3 (n = 171). Patients were seen on days 1, 2, 3, and 7 and then weekly for 42 days to assess the presence of gametocytes and asexual parasites by microscopy. Survival analysis was stratified by the presence of gametocytes on day 3.

RESULTS

DHP prevented development of gametocytes in 277 patients without gametocytes on day 3. In the gametocytemic patients (n = 72), primaquine was associated with faster gametocyte clearance (hazard ratio = 2.42 [95% confidence interval, 1.39-4.19], P = .002) and reduced gametocyte densities (P = .018). The day 42 cure rate of asexual stages in the DHP + primaquine and DHP-only arms were: polymerase chain reaction (PCR) unadjusted, 98.7% vs 99.4%, respectively; PCR adjusted, 100% for both. Primaquine was well tolerated.

CONCLUSIONS

Addition of single-dose 0.75 mg/kg primaquine shortens the infectivity period of DHP-treated patients and should be considered in low-transmission regions that aim to control and ultimately eliminate falciparum malaria. Clinical Trials Registration. NCT01392014.

Primaquine for reducing Plasmodium falciparum transmission

BACKGROUND

Mosquitoes become infected with malaria when they ingest gametocyte stages of the parasite from the blood of a human host. Plasmodium falciparum gametocytes are sensitive to the drug primaquine (PQ). The World Health Organization (WHO) recommends giving a single dose or short course of PQ alongside primary treatment for people ill with P. falciparum infection to reduce malaria transmission. Gametocytes themselves cause no symptoms, so this intervention does not directly benefit individuals. PQ causes haemolysis in some people with glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase (G6PD) deficiency so may not be safe.  

OBJECTIVES

To assess whether a single dose or short course of PQ added to treatments for malaria caused by P. falciparum infection reduces malaria transmission and is safe.

SEARCH METHODS

We searched the following databases up to 10 April 2012 for studies: the Cochrane Infectious Diseases Group Specialized Register; the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL), published in The Cochrane Library; MEDLINE; EMBASE; LILACS; metaRegister of Controlled Trials (mRCT) and the WHO trials search portal using 'malaria*', 'falciparum', and 'primaquine' as search terms. In addition, we searched conference proceedings and reference lists of included studies, and we contacted likely researchers and organizations for relevant trials.

SELECTION CRITERIA

Trials of mass treatment of whole populations (or actively detected fever or malaria cases within such populations) with antimalarial drugs, compared to treatment with the same drug plus PQ; or patients with clinical malaria being treated for malaria at health facilities randomized to short course/single dose PQ versus no PQ.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

Two authors (PMG and HG) independently screened all abstracts, applied inclusion criteria, and abstracted data. We sought data on the effect of PQ on malaria transmission intensity, participant infectiousness, the number of participants with gametocytes, and gametocyte density over time. We stratified results by primary treatment drug as this may modify any PQ effect. We calculated the area under the curve (AUC) for gametocyte density over time for comparisons for which data were available, and also sought data on haematologic and other adverse effects. We used GRADE guidelines to assess evidence quality, and this is reflected in the wording of the results: high quality ("PQ reduces ...."); moderate quality ("PQ probably reduces ..."); low quality ("PQ may reduce...."); and very low quality ("we don't know if PQ reduces....").

MAIN RESULTS

We included 11 individually randomized trials, with a total of 1776 individuals. The 11 trials included 20 comparisons with partner drugs, which included chloroquine (CQ), sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine (SP), mefloquine (MQ), quinine (QN), artesunate (AS), and a variety of artemisinin combination therapies (ACTs). For G6PD deficiency, studies either did not test (one study), tested and included all (one study), included only G6PD deficient (one study), excluded G6PD deficient (two studies), or made no comment (six studies).None of the trials we included assessed effects on malaria transmission (incidence, prevalence, or entomological inoculation rate (EIR)) in the trial area.With non-artemisinin drug regimens, PQ may reduce the infectiousness to mosquitoes of individuals treated, based on one small study with large effects (Risk Ratio (RR) 0.06 on day 8 after treatment, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0 to 0.89; low quality evidence). Participants who received PQ had fewer circulating gametocytes up to day 43 (log(10) AUC relative decrease from 24.3 to 27.1%, one study (two comparisons), moderate quality evidence); and there were 38% fewer people with gametocytes on day 8 (RR 0.62, 95% CI 0.51 to 0.76, four studies (five comparisons), moderate quality evidence). We did not identify any study that looked for effects of the drug on haemolytic anaemia.With artemisinin-based drug regimens, we do not know if PQ influences infectiousness to mosquitoes, as no study has examined this directly. PQ probably reduces infectiousness, based on reduction in log(10) AUC (relative decrease range from 26.1% to 87.5%, two studies (six comparisons), moderate quality evidence); and reduces by 88% the number of participants with gametocytes on day 8 (RR 0.12, 95% CI 0.08 to 0.20, four studies (eight comparisons), moderate quality evidence).When used with artemisinin-based regimens, we do not know if PQ results in haemolytic anaemia; one trial reported percent change in mean haemoglobin against baseline, and for the PQ group this indicated a significantly greater drop at day 8 in those given PQ (very low quality evidence). Overall, the safety of PQ used in single dose or short course was poorly evaluated. 

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

We do not know whether PQ added to treatment regimens for patients with P. falciparum infection reduces transmission of malaria. In individual patients, it reduces gametocyte prevalence and density. In practical terms, even if PQ results in large reductions in gametocytes in people being treated for malaria, there is no reliable evidence that this will reduce transmission in a malaria-endemic community, where many people are infected but have no symptoms and are unlikely to be treated. Since PQ is acting as a monotherapy against gametocytes, there is a risk of the parasite developing resistance to the drug. In terms of harms, there is insufficient evidence from trials to know whether the drug can be used safely in this way in populations where G6PD deficiency occurs.In light of these doubts about safety, and lack of evidence of any benefit in reducing transmission, countries should question whether to continue to use PQ routinely in primary treatment of malaria. Further synthesis of observational data on safety and new trials may help elucidate a role for PQ in malaria elimination, or in situations where most infected individuals are symptomatic and receive treatment.

Open-label trial with artemether-lumefantrine against uncomplicated Plasmodium falciparum malaria three years after its broad introduction in Jimma Zone, Ethiopia

BACKGROUND

In Jimma Zone, Ethiopia, the first-line treatment of uncomplicated falciparum malaria has been changed from sulphadoxine-pyrimethamine (SP) to artemether-lumefantrine (AL) in 2006. The objective of this study was to assess the effectiveness of AL in Jimma Zone two to three years after its broad introduction.

METHODS

An open-label, single-arm, 42-day study of AL against falciparum malaria was conducted in four areas with moderate transmission in Jimma Zone between November 2008 and January 2009 and between August and December 2009. Patients (one-81 years) with uncomplicated Plasmodium falciparum mono-infection were consecutively enrolled. Follow-up visits were at day 2, 3, 7, 28 and 42 or any other day if symptoms reoccurred. Primary and secondary endpoints were PCR-corrected and uncorrected cure rates (molecular differentiation between recrudescence and re-infection) on days 28 and 42. Other secondary endpoints were gametocytaemia at day 7 and day 28, parasitaemia at day 2 and 3, and re-infection rates at day 28 and day 42.

RESULTS

Of 348 enrolled patients, 313 and 301 completed follow-up at day 28 and at day 42, respectively. No early treatment failure occurred. For per protocol analysis, PCR-uncorrected cure rates at day 28 and 42 were 99.1% (95% CI 98.0-100.0) and 91.1% (95% CI 87.9-94.3), respectively. PCR-corrected cure rates at day 28 and 42 were 99.4% (95% CI 98.5-100.0) and 94.7% (95% CI 92.2-97.2), respectively. PCR-corrected cure rate at day 42 for children ≤ 5 years was 90.6% (95% CI 82.4-98.7) only. Adverse events were in general mild to moderate. Incidence of new infections was 3.4% during 42 days, no new infections with Plasmodium vivax were observed. Microscopically detected gametocytaemia was reduced by 80% between day 0 and day 7.

CONCLUSION

In general, AL was effective and well tolerated in Jimma Zone, Ethiopia. However, the PCR-corrected recrudescence rate per-protocol at day 42 for children ≤ 5 years was 9.4%. Therefore, further development should be monitored on a regular basis as recommended by WHO.

Efficacy of different primaquine-based antimalarial regimens against Plasmodium falciparum gametocytemia

This study compared the efficacy against Plasmodium falciparum gametocytes of four regimens: amodiaquine-sulfadoxine/pyrimethamine (AQ-SP) and mefloquine-artesunate (MQ-AS), with and without primaquine (PQ) administered with the second dose of the schizonticide (AQ-SP; AQ-SP-PQ; MQ-AS; MQ-AS-PQ). Efficacy was determined by thick smear on days 1, 4 and 8 after the beginning of treatment. A total of 82 patients (19-23/group) were recruited. After AQ-SP administration, gametocytemia steadily increased until day 8. With AQ-SP-PQ, a marked decline in gametocytemia was detected on days 4 and 8. MQ-AS treatment resulted in reduced gametocytemia on days 4 and 8, and with MQ-AS-PQ it was reduced even further. None of the treatments cleared gametocytemia by day 8. Currently, artemisinin-based combination therapies plus PQ are the recommended treatment option against falciparum malaria; however, further studies are required to optimize the use of PQ. Issues to be addressed include the optimal time of administration, treatment duration, optimal daily and total dose, and day of evaluation of the gametocytocidal effect. In falciparum malaria, the WHO recommends a maximum of 4days of treatment; consequently, an effective regimen must clear asexual parasites and symptoms within this time frame. The same criteria should be taken into account when evaluating the anti-gametocyte activity.

Primaquina, gametocitemia de Plasmodium falciparum y bloqueo de transmisión: ineficacia del actual régimen de dosificación

Antecedentes: Los esquizonticidas anti-Plasmodium falciparum reducen la gametocitemia, sin erradicarla; por ello, se adiciona primaquina (PQ). Esta se administra al terminar el esquizonticida: día 4; 0,75 mg/kg; dosis única (régimen estándar). Las artemisininas actúan sobre gametocitos inmaduros I-IV de P. falciparum; la PQ actúa sobre gametocitos maduros (estadio V). ¿Cuál es la eficacia antigametocitos de la combinación esquizonticida-PQ? Objetivo:Analizar la eficacia de PQ-régimen estándar contra gametocitos de P. falciparum, asociada al esquizonticida. Metodología: Revisión sistemática de los artículos hallados en Pubmed y Lilacs. Resultados y conclusiones: Ningún esquizonticida elimina totalmente los gametocitos en 6-7 días iniciales de tratamiento. La adición de PQ-régimen estándar tiene potente acción antigametocitos. Ninguna combinación esquizonticida-PQ tiene eficacia total en ese plazo. No conocemos cómo varía la eficacia antigametocitos de PQ dada los días 1 a 3, ni en dosis diferentes a la estándar, ni en múltiples dosis. [Carmona-Fonseca J, ,Arango EM. Primaquina,gametocitemia de Plasmodium falciparum y bloqueo de transmisión: ineficacia del actual régimen de dosificación. MedUNAB 2012;15:14-21].

G6PD deficiency prevalence and estimates of affected populations in malaria endemic countries: a geostatistical model-based map

BACKGROUND

Primaquine is a key drug for malaria elimination. In addition to being the only drug active against the dormant relapsing forms of Plasmodium vivax, primaquine is the sole effective treatment of infectious P. falciparum gametocytes, and may interrupt transmission and help contain the spread of artemisinin resistance. However, primaquine can trigger haemolysis in patients with a deficiency in glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase (G6PDd). Poor information is available about the distribution of individuals at risk of primaquine-induced haemolysis. We present a continuous evidence-based prevalence map of G6PDd and estimates of affected populations, together with a national index of relative haemolytic risk.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

Representative community surveys of phenotypic G6PDd prevalence were identified for 1,734 spatially unique sites. These surveys formed the evidence-base for a Bayesian geostatistical model adapted to the gene's X-linked inheritance, which predicted a G6PDd allele frequency map across malaria endemic countries (MECs) and generated population-weighted estimates of affected populations. Highest median prevalence (peaking at 32.5%) was predicted across sub-Saharan Africa and the Arabian Peninsula. Although G6PDd prevalence was generally lower across central and southeast Asia, rarely exceeding 20%, the majority of G6PDd individuals (67.5% median estimate) were from Asian countries. We estimated a G6PDd allele frequency of 8.0% (interquartile range: 7.4-8.8) across MECs, and 5.3% (4.4-6.7) within malaria-eliminating countries. The reliability of the map is contingent on the underlying data informing the model; population heterogeneity can only be represented by the available surveys, and important weaknesses exist in the map across data-sparse regions. Uncertainty metrics are used to quantify some aspects of these limitations in the map. Finally, we assembled a database of G6PDd variant occurrences to inform a national-level index of relative G6PDd haemolytic risk. Asian countries, where variants were most severe, had the highest relative risks from G6PDd.

CONCLUSIONS

G6PDd is widespread and spatially heterogeneous across most MECs where primaquine would be valuable for malaria control and elimination. The maps and population estimates presented here reflect potential risk of primaquine-associated harm. In the absence of non-toxic alternatives to primaquine, these results represent additional evidence to help inform safe use of this valuable, yet dangerous, component of the malaria-elimination toolkit. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.

Drug resistance associated genetic polymorphisms in Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax collected in Honduras, Central America

Background

In Honduras, chloroquine and primaquine are recommended and still appear to be effective for treatment of Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax malaria. The aim of this study was to determine the proportion of resistance associated genetic polymorphisms in P. falciparum and P. vivax collected in Honduras.

Methods

Blood samples were collected from patients seeking medical attention at the Hospital Escuela in Tegucigalpa from 2004 to 2006 as well as three regional hospitals, two health centres and one regional laboratory during 2009. Single nucleotide polymorphisms in P. falciparum chloroquine resistance transporter (pfcrt), multidrug resistance 1 (pfmdr1), dihydrofolate reductase (pfdhfr) and dihydropteroate synthase (pfdhps) genes and in P. vivax multidrug resistance 1 (pvmdr1) and dihydrofolate reductase (pvdhfr) genes were detected using PCR based methods.

Results

Thirty seven P. falciparum and 64 P. vivax samples were collected. All P. falciparum infections acquired in Honduras carried pfcrt, pfmdr1, pfdhps and pfdhfr alleles associated with chloroquine, amodiaquine and sulphadoxine-pyrimethamine sensitivity only. One patient with parasites acquired on a Pacific Island had pfcrt 76 T and pfmdr1 86Y alleles. That patient and a patient infected in West Africa had pfdhfr 51I, 59 R and 108 N alleles. Pvmdr1 976 F was found in 7/37 and two copies of pvmdr1 were found in 1/37 samples. Pvdhfr 57 L + 58 R was observed in 2/57 samples.

Conclusion

The results indicate that P. falciparum from Honduras remain sensitive to chloroquine and sulphadoxine-pyrimethamine. This suggests that chloroquine and sulphadoxine-pyrimethamine should be efficacious for treatment of uncomplicated P. falciparum malaria, supporting current national treatment guidelines. However, genetic polymorphisms associated with chloroquine and sulphadoxine-pyrimethamine tolerance were detected in local P. vivax and imported P. falciparum infections. Continuous monitoring of the prevalence of drug resistant/tolerant P. falciparum and P. vivax is therefore essential also in Honduras.

INDIA'S APPROACH TO ELIMINATING PLASMODIUM FALCIPARUM MALARIA: A MODELING PERSPECTIVE

Approximately one-third of the world's population that is at risk to malaria lives in India. Plasmodium falciparum, a deadly form of malaria, accounts for about 50% of the cases there. Since 1940s, India has used a number of programs to combat the disease with variable success. Since 1998, the total numbers of malaria cases, and in particular P. falciparum cases, have been steadily declining, making India one of the success stories among the countries supported by the Roll Back Malaria (RBM) Partnership. This article considers India's P. falciparum control methods from the perspective of a Ross-MacDonald type model. The model is fitted to the P. falciparum cases in India over the period 1983–2009. We focus on the disease reproduction number as being a measure of success of programs. Before the start of RBM measures, the disease reproduction number was [Formula: see text], meaning that the incidence of disease was increasing among the population. With the new control measures [Formula: see text], suggesting that P.falciparum cases may be declining to zero but extremely slowly. The model here projects 0.734 million cases of P. falciparum malaria for 2010, down from 1.14 million cases in 2000. This impressive 36% decrease falls somewhat short of the RBM's goal of 50% reduction. However, a sensitivity analysis of the disease reproduction number done here suggests that India's control programs do apply controls at the most critical points in the disease cycle; namely, mosquito biting rates, mosquito mortality, and treatment of infected humans. This suggests that as more resources become available, they should be applied to strengthen these controls. The novelty here is in fitting recent data on malaria from India to derive current values of the disease reproduction number.

Community screening and treatment of asymptomatic carriers of Plasmodium falciparum with artemether-lumefantrine to reduce malaria disease burden: a modelling and simulation analysis

BACKGROUND

Asymptomatic carriers of Plasmodium falciparum serve as a reservoir of parasites for malaria transmission. Identification and treatment of asymptomatic carriers within a region may reduce the parasite reservoir and influence malaria transmission in that area.

METHODS

Using computer simulation, this analysis explored the impact of community screening campaigns (CSC) followed by systematic treatment of P. falciparum asymptomatic carriers (AC) with artemether-lumefantrine (AL) on disease transmission. The model created by Okell et al (originally designed to explore the impact of the introduction of treatment with artemisinin-based combination therapy on malaria endemicity) was modified to represent CSC and treatment of AC with AL, with the addition of malaria vector seasonality. The age grouping, relative distribution of age in a region, and degree of heterogeneity in disease transmission were maintained. The number and frequency of CSC and their relative timing were explored in terms of their effect on malaria incidence. A sensitivity analysis was conducted to determine the factors with the greatest impact on the model predictions.

RESULTS

The simulation showed that the intervention that had the largest effect was performed in an area with high endemicity (entomological inoculation rate, EIR > 200); however, the rate of infection returned to its normal level in the subsequent year, unless the intervention was repeated. In areas with low disease burden (EIR < 10), the reduction was sustained for over three years after a single intervention. Three CSC scheduled in close succession (monthly intervals) at the start of the dry season had the greatest impact on the success of the intervention.

CONCLUSIONS

Community screening and treatment of asymptomatic carriers with AL may reduce malaria transmission significantly. The initial level of disease intensity has the greatest impact on the potential magnitude and duration of malaria reduction. When combined with other interventions (e.g. long-lasting insecticide-treated nets, rapid diagnostic tests, prompt diagnosis and treatment, and, where appropriate, indoor residual spraying) the effect of this intervention can be sustained for many years, and it could become a tool to accelerate the reduction in transmission intensity to pre-elimination levels. Repeated interventions at least every other year may help to prolong the effect. The use of an effective diagnostic tool and a highly effective ACT, such as AL, is also vital. The modelling supports the evaluation of this approach in a prospective clinical trial to reduce the pool of infective vectors for malaria transmission in an area with marked seasonality.

Epidemiology and infectivity of Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax gametocytes in relation to malaria control and elimination

Malaria remains a major cause of morbidity and mortality in the tropics, with Plasmodium falciparum responsible for the majority of the disease burden and P. vivax being the geographically most widely distributed cause of malaria. Gametocytes are the sexual-stage parasites that infect Anopheles mosquitoes and mediate the onward transmission of the disease. Gametocytes are poorly studied despite this crucial role, but with a recent resurgence of interest in malaria elimination, the study of gametocytes is in vogue. This review highlights the current state of knowledge with regard to the development and longevity of P. falciparum and P. vivax gametocytes in the human host and the factors influencing their distribution within endemic populations. The evidence for immune responses, antimalarial drugs, and drug resistance influencing infectiousness to mosquitoes is reviewed. We discuss how the application of molecular techniques has led to the identification of submicroscopic gametocyte carriage and to a reassessment of the human infectious reservoir. These components are drawn together to show how control measures that aim to reduce malaria transmission, such as mass drug administration and a transmission-blocking vaccine, might better be deployed.

A research agenda for malaria eradication: basic science and enabling technologies

Today's malaria control efforts are limited by our incomplete understanding of the biology of Plasmodium and of the complex relationships between human populations and the multiple species of mosquito and parasite. Research priorities include the development of in vitro culture systems for the complete life cycle of P. falciparum and P. vivax and the development of an appropriate liver culture system to study hepatic stages. In addition, genetic technologies for the manipulation of Plasmodium need to be improved, the entire parasite metabolome needs to be characterized to identify new druggable targets, and improved information systems for monitoring the changes in epidemiology, pathology, and host-parasite-vector interactions as a result of intensified control need to be established to bridge the gap between bench, preclinical, clinical, and population-based sciences.

Operational strategies to achieve and maintain malaria elimination

Present elimination strategies are based on recommendations derived during the Global Malaria Eradication Program of the 1960s. However, many countries considering elimination nowadays have high intrinsic transmission potential and, without the support of a regional campaign, have to deal with the constant threat of imported cases of the disease, emphasising the need to revisit the strategies on which contemporary elimination programmes are based. To eliminate malaria, programmes need to concentrate on identification and elimination of foci of infections through both passive and active methods of case detection. This approach needs appropriate treatment of both clinical cases and asymptomatic infections, combined with targeted vector control. Draining of infectious pools entirely will not be sufficient since they could be replenished by imported malaria. Elimination will thus additionally need identification and treatment of incoming infections before they lead to transmission, or, more realistically, embarking on regional initiatives to dry up importation at its source.

Ranking of elimination feasibility between malaria-endemic countries

Experience gained from the Global Malaria Eradication Program (1955-72) identified a set of shared technical and operational factors that enabled some countries to successfully eliminate malaria. Spatial data for these factors were assembled for all malaria-endemic countries and combined to provide an objective, relative ranking of countries by technical, operational, and combined elimination feasibility. The analysis was done separately for Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax, and the limitations of the approach were discussed. The relative rankings suggested that malaria elimination would be most feasible in countries in the Americas and Asia, and least feasible in countries in central and west Africa. The results differed when feasibility was measured by technical or operational factors, highlighting the different types of challenge faced by each country. The results are not intended to be prescriptive, predictive, or to provide absolute assessments of feasibility, but they do show that spatial information is available to facilitate evidence-based assessments of the relative feasibility of malaria elimination by country that can be rapidly updated.

Appropriate time for primaquine treatment to reduce Plasmodium falciparum transmission in hypoendemic areas

Artemesinin-combination therapies (ACT) for falciparum malaria reduce gametocyte carriage, and therefore reduce transmission. Artemisinin derivatives will act against only young gametocytes whereas primaquine acts on mature gametocytes which are present usually in the circulation at the time when the patient presents for treatment. Both artemisinin derivatives and primaquine have short half-lives, less than 1 hr and 7 hr, respectively. Therefore, asexual parasites or young gametocytes remain after completed ACT. A single dose of primaquine (0.50-0.75 mg base/kg) at the end of ACT can kill only mature gametocytes but cannot kill young gametocytes (if present). Remaining asexual forms after completion of ACT course, e.g., artesunate-mefloquine for 3 days, may develop to mature gametocytes 7-15 days later. Thus, an additional dose of primaquine (0.50-0.75 mg base/kg) given 2 weeks after ACT completion may be beneficial for killing remaining mature gametocytes and contribute to more interruption of Plasmodium falciparum transmission than giving only 1 single dose of primaquine just after completing ACT.

Revisiting the circulation time of Plasmodium falciparum gametocytes: molecular detection methods to estimate the duration of gametocyte carriage and the effect of gametocytocidal drugs

Background

There is renewed acknowledgement that targeting gametocytes is essential for malaria control and elimination efforts. Simple mathematical models were fitted to data from clinical trials in order to determine the mean gametocyte circulation time and duration of gametocyte carriage in treated malaria patients.

Methods

Data were used from clinical trials from East Africa. The first trial compared non-artemisinin combination therapy (non-ACT: sulphadoxine-pyrimethamine (SP) plus amodiaquine) and artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT: SP plus artesunate (AS) or artemether-lumefantrine). The second trial compared ACT (SP+AS) with ACT in combination with a single dose of primaquine (ACT-PQ: SP+AS+PQ). Mature gametocytes were quantified in peripheral blood samples by nucleic acid sequence based amplification. A simple deterministic compartmental model was fitted to gametocyte densities to estimate the circulation time per gametocyte; a similar model was fitted to gametocyte prevalences to estimate the duration of gametocyte carriage after efficacious treatment.

Results

The mean circulation time of gametocytes was 4.6-6.5 days. After non-ACT treatment, patients were estimated to carry gametocytes for an average of 55 days (95% CI 28.7 - 107.7). ACT reduced the duration of gametocyte carriage fourfold to 13.4 days (95% CI 10.2-17.5). Addition of PQ to ACT resulted in a further fourfold reduction of the duration of gametocyte carriage.

Conclusions

These findings confirm previous estimates of the circulation time of gametocytes, but indicate a much longer duration of (low density) gametocyte carriage after apparently successful clearance of asexual parasites. ACT shortened the period of gametocyte carriage considerably, and had the most pronounced effect on mature gametocytes when combined with PQ.

Chemoprophylaxis of Tropical Infectious Diseases

Travelers to tropical countries are at risk for a variety of infectious diseases. In some cases effective vaccinations are available, but for other infections chemoprophylaxis can be offered. Malaria prevention has become increasingly complex as Plasmodium species become resistant to available drugs. In certain high risk settings, antibiotics can be used to prevent leptospirosis, scrub typhus and other infections. Post-exposure prophylaxis is appropriate for selected virulent infections. In this article the evidence for chemoprophylaxis will be reviewed.

Artemisinin resistance: current status and scenarios for containment

Artemisinin combination therapies are the first-line treatments for uncomplicated Plasmodium falciparum malaria in most malaria-endemic countries. Recently, partial artemisinin-resistant P. falciparum malaria has emerged on the Cambodia-Thailand border. Exposure of the parasite population to artemisinin monotherapies in subtherapeutic doses for over 30 years, and the availability of substandard artemisinins, have probably been the main driving force in the selection of the resistant phenotype in the region. A multifaceted containment programme has recently been launched, including early diagnosis and appropriate treatment, decreasing drug pressure, optimising vector control, targeting the mobile population, strengthening management and surveillance systems, and operational research. Mathematical modelling can be a useful tool to evaluate possible strategies for containment.

In Tanzania, hemolysis after a single dose of primaquine coadministered with an artemisinin is not restricted to glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase-deficient (G6PD A-) individuals

The current interest in malaria elimination has led to a renewed interest in drugs that can be used for mass administration to minimize malaria transmission. Primaquine (PQ) is the only generally available drug with a strong activity against mature Plasmodium falciparum gametocytes, the parasite stage responsible for transmission. Despite concerns about PQ-induced hemolysis in glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase (G6PD)-deficient individuals, a single dose of PQ may be safe and efficacious in clearing gametocytes that persist after conventional treatment. As part of a mass drug intervention, we determined the hemolytic effect of sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine (SP) plus artesunate (AS) plus a single dose of primaquine (PQ; 0.75 mg/kg of body weight) in children aged 1 to 12 years. Children were randomized to receive SP+AS+PQ or placebo; those with a hemoglobin (Hb) level below 8 g/dl were excluded from receiving PQ and received SP+AS. The Hb concentration was significantly reduced 7 days after SP+AS+PQ treatment but not after placebo or SP+AS treatment. This reduction in Hb was most pronounced in G6PD-deficient (G6PD A-) individuals (-2.5 g/dl; 95% confidence interval [95% CI], -1.2 to -3.8 g/dl) but was also observed in heterozygotes (G6PD A) (-1.6 g/dl; 95% CI, -0.9 to -2.2 g/dl) and individuals with the wild-type genotype (G6PD B) (-0.5 g/dl; 95% CI, -0.4 to -0.6 g/dl). Moderate anemia (Hb level of <8 g/dl) was observed in 40% (6/15 individuals) of the G6PD A-, 11.1% (3/27 individuals) of the G6PD A, and 4.5% (18/399 individuals) of the G6PD B individuals; one case of severe anemia (Hb level of <5 g/dl) was observed. PQ may cause moderate anemia when coadministered with artemisinins, and excluding individuals based on G6PD status alone may not be sufficient to prevent PQ-induced hemolysis.