Breast cancer screening: evidence of benefit depends on the method used

Evaluating mammography screening in observational cohort designs: the importance of avoiding lead time bias

AIMS

To investigate the potential lead time bias of the evaluation model (extended follow-up for women diagnosed with breast cancer) used to evaluate mammography screening in a recent Danish study. This model was compared with two traditional models.

METHODS

We retrieved data on women diagnosed with breast cancer in each county of Norway from 1986 to 2016. In a population-based open cohort study, the change in incidence-based mortality (IBM) was estimated by relative rate ratios comparing a screening period with a historical period for each of three age groups: women eligible for screening and younger and older ineligible women. We applied the evaluation model, and for comparison two traditional IBM models from a recent Norwegian study: one without extended follow-up and no possibility of lead time bias and one with extended follow-up irrespective of diagnosis, possibly diluting any screening effect.

RESULTS

The evaluation model estimated an extra 11% reduction in breast cancer mortality among the screening eligible relative to ineligible women. However, this result could largely be ascribed to lead time bias inflated by overdiagnosis and a decreasing mortality from other causes among eligible women. A reduction in breast cancer mortality was observed for both eligible and younger and older ineligible women across models, and relative rate ratios close to 1 were obtained using the two traditional IBM models, indicating no effect of screening on breast cancer mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

Two models without lead time bias found no reduction in breast cancer mortality, whereas the evaluation model estimated a reduction attributable to lead time bias.

The Benefits of Early Detection: Evidence From Modern International Mammography Service Screening Programs

Research from randomized controlled trials initiated up to 60 years ago consistently confirms that regular screening with mammography significantly reduces breast cancer mortality. Despite this success, there is ongoing debate regarding the efficacy of screening, which is confounded by technologic advances and concerns about cost, overdiagnosis, overtreatment, and equitable care of diverse patient populations. More recent screening research, designed to quell the debates, derives data from variable study designs, each with unique strengths and weaknesses. This article reviews observational population-based screening research that has followed the early initial long-term randomized controlled trials that are no longer practical or ethical to perform. The advantages and disadvantages of observational data and study design are outlined, including the three subtypes of population-based observational studies: cohort/case-control, trend, and incidence-based mortality/staging. The most recent research, typically performed in countries that administer screening mammography to women through centralized health service programs and directly track patient-specific outcomes and detection data, is summarized. These data are essential to understand and inform construction of effective new databases that facilitate continuous assessment of optimal screening techniques in the current era of rapidly developing medical technology, combined with a focus on health care that is both personal and equitable.

The potential of breast cancer screening in Europe

Currently, all European countries offer some form of breast cancer screening. Nevertheless, disparities exist in the status of implementation, attendance and the extent of opportunistic screening. As a result, breast cancer screening has not yet reached its full potential. We examined how many breast cancer deaths could be prevented if all European countries would biennially screen all women aged 50 to 69 for breast cancer. We calculated the number of breast cancer deaths already prevented due to screening as well as the number of breast cancer deaths which could be additionally prevented if the total examination coverage (organised plus opportunistic) would reach 100%. The calculations are based on total examination coverage in women aged 50 to 69, the annual number of breast cancer deaths for women aged 50 to 74 and the maximal possible mortality reduction from breast cancer, assuming similar effectiveness of organised and opportunistic screening. The total examination coverage ranged from 49% (East), 62% (West), 64% (North) to 69% (South). Yearly 21 680 breast cancer deaths have already been prevented due to mammography screening. If all countries would reach 100% examination coverage, 12 434 additional breast cancer deaths could be prevented annually, with the biggest potential in Eastern Europe. With maximum coverage, 23% of their breast cancer deaths could be additionally prevented, while in Western Europe it could be 21%, in Southern Europe 15% and in Northern Europe 9%. Our study illustrates that by further optimising screening coverage, the number of breast cancer deaths in Europe can be lowered substantially.

Evidence for reducing cancer-specific mortality due to screening for breast cancer in Europe: A systematic review

BACKGROUND

The aim of this study was to quantify the impact of organised mammography screening on breast cancer mortality across European regions. Therefore, a systematic review was performed including different types of studies from all European regions and stringently used clearly defined quality appraisal to summarise the best evidence.

METHODS

Six databases were searched including Embase, Medline and Web of Science from inception to March 2018. To identify all eligible studies which assessed the effect of organised screening on breast cancer mortality, two reviewers independently applied predefined inclusion and exclusion criteria. Original studies in English with a minimum follow-up of five years that were randomised controlled trials (RCTs) or observational studies were included. The Cochrane risk of bias instrument and the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale were used to assess the risk of bias.

RESULTS

Of the 5015 references initially retrieved, 60 were included in the final analysis. Those comprised 36 cohort studies, 17 case-control studies and 7 RCTs. None were from Eastern Europe. The quality of the included studies varied: Nineteen of these studies were of very good or good quality. Of those, the reduction in breast cancer mortality in attenders versus non-attenders ranged between 33% and 43% (Northern Europe), 43%-45% (Southern Europe) and 12%-58% (Western Europe). The estimates ranged between 4% and 31% in invited versus non-invited.

CONCLUSION

This systematic review provides evidence that organised screening reduces breast cancer mortality in all European regions where screening was implemented and monitored, while quantification is still lacking for Eastern Europe. The wide range of estimates indicates large differences in the evaluation designs between studies, rather than in the effectiveness of screening.

Trends in Breast Cancer Incidence and Stage Distribution Before and During the Introduction of the Mammography Screening Program in Lithuania

Background:

The aim of this study was to analyze the incidence trends of localized and advanced breast cancer (BC) before and during the implementation of the mammography screening program (MSP) in Lithuania.

Methods:

The study period was divided into 2 intervals: the prescreening period (1998-2005) and implementation period (2006-2012). Analysis was performed for 3 age-groups: 0 to 49 years, 50 to 69 (target population), and older than 70.

Results:

In all age-groups, the incidence of localized BC has shown a steady increase, while the incidence of advanced stage BC has decreased. In the target population, during the study period, the stage I BC incidence increased statistically significantly by 10.3% per year (from 3.3 per 100 000 in 1998 to 12.2 per 100 000 in 2012). The increase in localized BC was faster in the period before the implementation of the MSP than during the implementation in 2006 to 2012 (10.3% and 5.7%). A slightly statistically significant decrease was observed for advanced BC during the study period (−1.1% per year), while during the implementation of the MSP, significant changes were not seen.

Conclusions:

The results of our study indicate that the implementation of the MSP in Lithuania did not significantly influence trends of localized and advanced BC. Changes observed during the study period, including the prescreening and screening introduction periods, may reflect the general trends in the awareness of BC and improvements in diagnostics.

Differences in Breast Cancer Characteristics by Mammography Screening Participation or Non-Participation

BACKGROUND

The goal of the German Mammography Screening Program (MSP) is to enable the early detection and less intensive treatment of breast cancer. We compared tumor characteristics and prognostic markers in breast cancers that were detected by screening in the MSP, in the interval after a negative screening, or among non-participants in screening.

METHODS

This retrospective series includes all of the 1531 cases of invasive and in situ breast cancer (DCIS, ductal carcinoma in situ) that were newly diagnosed in two certified breast care centers in Münster in the period 2006-2012 among women in the MSP target population. Complete information on the tumor characteristics, tumor biology, and primary surgical treatment were available for all cases. The mode of cancer detection was determined from the state cancer registry of North Rhine-Westphalia. Due to the retrospective design of this case series, there was no randomized allocation.

RESULTS

The 874 cases of breast cancer among MSP participants (714 detected by screening, 160 in the interval after a negative screen) and the 657 cases among non-participants arose in women of similar age (mean, 60.2 versus 59.3 years). MSP participants with breast cancer had DCIS more commonly than non-participants did (23% versus 13%); invasive carcinomas were smaller (74% versus 55% in the T1 stage), less commonly node-positive (25% versus 31%), less commonly high-grade (19% versus 27%), and less commonly triple-negative (7% versus 12%); MSP participants received neoadjuvant treatment less frequently (2% versus 8%) and more frequently underwent breast-conserving surgery (75% versus 62%). They less commonly had a guideline-based indication for adjuvant chemotherapy (46% versus 52%).

CONCLUSION

MSP participants with invasive breast cancer can generally be treated with less intensive surgical and systemic therapy than non-participants, even if interval cancers are also taken into account. Future studies should also investigate quality of life after a diagnosis of invasive carcinoma in screening participants.

A cohort study of mammography screening finds that comorbidity measures are insufficient for controlling selection bias

OBJECTIVE

To examine the potential of claims-based comorbidity measures for controlling selection bias in observational studies of mammography screening.

STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING

Based on claims data of a large German Statutory Health Insurance fund, the single comorbidities considered by the Charlson, Elixhauser, Multipurpose Australian Comorbidity Scoring System, and M3 comorbidity measures were identified for mammography screening participants and nonparticipants. Total death rates within 4 years after screening invitation were compared. Cox proportional hazards regressions were performed unadjusted and adjusted for age, federal state of residence, and comorbidity.

RESULTS

Among 1,247,919 insured women aged 50-68 years (56.2% participants), 10,311 participants (death rate 375.8/100,000 person-years) and 18,113 nonparticipants (death rate 854.8/100,000 person-years) died from any cause during the follow-up. The unadjusted hazard ratio (HR) for death from any cause for participants vs. nonparticipants was 0.44 (99.9% confidence interval 0.42-0.46). Adjustments attenuated the HR to a maximum of 0.52 (0.50-0.54).

CONCLUSION

The lower short-term all-cause mortality among participants cannot be explained by mammography screening effects and should be interpreted as selection bias. Adjusting for comorbidities only slightly attenuated this bias. Future studies should examine whether claims data include further information that is beneficial to adequately control selection bias in observational studies of mammography screening.

The impact of screening on cancer incidence and mortality in Missouri, USA, 2004-2013

OBJECTIVES

Population-based evidence regarding impact of cancer screenings and cancer rates in Missouri is lacking. This study examined whether screenings of breast cancer, cervical cancer, and colorectal cancer impact early-stage cancer incidence and mortality in Missouri.

STUDY DESIGN

This is an ecological study based on county-specific estimates of selected cancer screening prevalence and early-stage cancer incidence and cancer mortality.

METHODS

County-specific prevalence of clinical breast examination, mammography, Pap test, sigmoidoscopy or colonoscopy, and fecal occult blood test (FOBT) were generated from Missouri County-Level Study (2003, 2007, and 2011). County-specific crude incidence and mortality were calculated (2004-2013). Pearson's correlation and Poisson regression were used to test association between cancer rate and screening prevalence. Covariates included county-level mean age, percentage of whites, percentage with low income, percentage with less than high school education high school, percentage with no insurance, and percentage having difficulties accessing care.

RESULTS

In the adjusted model, 'ever had Pap test' was significantly associated with an increase of 8% in early-stage cervical cancer incidence. Having clinical breast examination or Pap test in the past was also associated with decreases in mortality by 3% and 4%, respectively, although the association was not significant for Pap test. In addition, having mammography was statistically significantly associated with early-stage breast cancer incidence, and having FOBT or sigmoidoscopy or colonoscopy was associated with decreased colorectal cancer mortality; however, magnitude for these associations was only around 1%.

CONCLUSIONS

This study provides ecological evidence of the effectiveness of screening services in predicting early stage cancer incidence and in reducing mortality across Missouri counties. Further incentive to promote these screenings in Missouri is needed.

Assessing predicted age-specific breast cancer mortality rates in 27 European countries by 2020

BACKGROUND

We assessed differences in predicted breast cancer (BC) mortality rates, across Europe, by 2020, taking into account changes in the time trends of BC mortality rates during the period 2000-2010.

METHODS

BC mortality data, for 27 European Union (EU) countries, were extracted from the World Health Organization mortality database. First, we compared BC mortality data between time periods 2000-2004 and 2006-2010 through standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) and carrying out a graphical assessment of the age-specific rates. Second, making use of the base period 2006-2012, we predicted BC mortality rates by 2020. Finally, making use of the SMRs and the predicted data, we identified a clustering of countries, assessing differences in the time trends between the areas defined in this clustering.

RESULTS

The clustering approach identified two clusters of countries: the first cluster were countries where BC predicted mortality rates, in 2020, might slightly increase among women aged 69 and older compared with 2010 [Greece (SMR 1.01), Croatia (SMR 1.02), Latvia (SMR 1.15), Poland (SMR 1.14), Estonia (SMR 1.16), Bulgaria (SMR 1.13), Lithuania (SMR 1.03), Romania (SMR 1.13) and Slovakia (SMR 1.06)]. The second cluster was those countries where BC mortality rates level off or decrease in all age groups (remaining countries). However, BC mortality rates between these clusters might diminish and converge to similar figures by 2020.

CONCLUSIONS

For the year 2020, our predictions have shown a converging pattern of BC mortality rates between European regions. Reducing disparities, in access to screening and treatment, could have a substantial effect in countries where a non-decreasing trend in age-specific BC mortality rates has been predicted.

Methodological considerations for surveillance in GI practice

Surveillance is recommended for various GI cancers, and substantial resources are invested. However, little is known about the effect of surveillance, neither for good, nor for bad. Most evidence stems from observational studies, but observational studies of surveillance can be subject to various biases that may severely influence the results. In this chapter we discuss challenges related to various research questions, study designs, choice of endpoints, and how to deal with different forms of bias. We hope this chapter will be helpful for researchers when performing high-quality studies of surveillance, and to enable physicians and policy-makers to understand the possibilities and limitations of current evidence.

Trends in advanced breast cancer incidence rates after implementation of a mammography screening program in a German population

BACKGROUND

Mammography screening programs (MSPs) aim to detect early-stage breast cancers in order to decrease the incidence of advanced-stage breast cancers and to reduce breast cancer mortality. We analyzed the time trends of advanced-stage breast cancer incidence rates in the target population before and after implementation of the MSP in a region of northwestern Germany.

METHODS

The MSP in the Münster district started in October 2005. A total of 13,874 women with an incident invasive breast cancer (BC) was identified by the population-based epidemiological cancer registry between 2000 and 2013 in the target group 50-69 years. Multiple imputation methods were used to replace missing data on tumor stages (10.4%). The incidence rates for early-stage (UICC I) and advanced-stage (UICC II+) BC were determined, and Poisson regression analyses were performed to assess trends over time.

RESULTS

The incidence rates for UICC I breast cancers increased during the step-up introduction of the MSP and remained elevated thereafter. By contrast, after increasing from 2006 to 2008, the incidence rates of UICC II+ breast cancers decreased to levels below the pre-screening period. Significantly decreasing UICC II+ incidence rates were limited to the age group 55-69 years and reached levels that were significantly lower than incidence rates in the pre-screening period.

DISCUSSION

The incidence rates of advanced-stage breast cancers decreased in the age groups from 55 years to the upper age limit for screening eligibility, but not in the adjacent age groups. The findings are consistent with MSP lead time effects and seem to indicate that the MSP lowers advanced-stage breast cancer rates in the target population.

Effect of organised mammography screening on stage-specific incidence in Norway: population study

Background:

We aimed to estimate the effect of organised mammography screening on breast cancer stage distribution by comparing changes in women eligible for screening, based on birth cohort, to the concurrent changes in younger, ineligible women.

Methods:

In an open cohort study in Norway, which introduced national mammography screening county-by-county from 1995 to 2004, we identified women (n=49 883) diagnosed with in situ or invasive breast cancer (ICD10 codes: D05 or C50) during the period 1987–2011 and born between 1917 and 1980. We estimated relative incidence rate ratios (rIRRs) comparing the development in the screening vs historic group to the younger vs younger historic group.

Results:

Including the compensatory drop, eligible women experienced a 68% higher increase in localised cancers (rIRR=1.68, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.51–1.87) than younger women, while the increase in incidence of advanced cancers was similar (rIRR=1.11, 95% CI: 0.90–1.36). Excluding the prevalence round, eligible women experienced a 60% higher increase in localised cancers (rIRR=1.60, 95% CI: 1.42–1.79), while the increase in incidence of advanced cancers remained similar (rIRR=1.08, 95% CI: 0.86–1.35).

Conclusions:

Introduction of organised mammography screening was followed by a significant increase in localised and no change in advanced-stage cancers in women eligible for screening relative to younger, ineligible women.

National Breast Cancer Screening Programme, Singapore: evaluation of participation and performance indicators

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate participation rates and performance indicators in the National Breast Cancer Screening Programme, BreastScreen Singapore (BSS).

METHODS

Data on women aged 40-69 screened in the period 2002-2009 was obtained from BSS and from the Singapore Cancer Registry. Participation rates and performance indicators (including screen detection rates, small tumour detection rates, recall rates, accuracy and interval cancer rates) were examined.

RESULTS

BSS participation rate has remained above 10% since 2005. Based on health surveys, national mammography rates have increased from 29.7% before BSS to 39.6% in 2010 after BSS. Performance indicators, with the exception of recall rates, specificity, and interval cancer rate (for first screen), generally improved from 2002-2006 to 2007-2009 and are comparable with organized breast screening programmes in other developed countries.

CONCLUSION

BSS breast cancer screening coverage and rescreen rates in Singapore could be improved. Mechanisms to monitor recall rates are in place, and training opportunities are provided to aid the professional development of radiologists.

Effect of implementation of the mass breast cancer screening programme in older women in the Netherlands: population based study

OBJECTIVE

To assess the incidence of early stage and advanced stage breast cancer before and after the implementation of mass screening in women aged 70-75 years in the Netherlands in 1998.

DESIGN

Prospective nationwide population based study.

SETTING

National cancer registry, the Netherlands.

PARTICIPANTS

Patients aged 70-75 years with a diagnosis of invasive or ductal carcinoma in situ breast cancer between 1995 and 2011 (n=25,414). Incidence rates were calculated using population data from Statistics Netherlands.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE

Incidence rates of early stage (I, II, or ductal carcinoma in situ) and advanced stage (III and IV) breast cancer before and after implementation of screening. Hypotheses were formulated before data collection.

RESULTS

The incidence of early stage tumours significantly increased after the extension for implementation of screening (248.7 cases per 100,000 women before screening up to 362.9 cases per 100,000 women after implementation of screening, incidence rate ratio 1.46, 95% confidence interval 1.40 to 1.52, P<0.001). However, the incidence of advanced stage breast cancers decreased to a far lesser extent (58.6 cases per 100,000 women before screening to 51.8 cases per 100,000 women after implementation of screening, incidence rate ratio 0.88, 0.81 to 0.97, P<0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

The extension of the upper age limit to 75 years has only led to a small decrease in incidence of advanced stage breast cancer, while that of early stage tumours has strongly increased.

BMC Medicine: a decade of open access medical research

On 24 November 2003, BMC Medicine published its first article. Ten years and over 900 articles later we look back at some of the most notable milestones for the journal and discuss advances and innovations in medicine over the last decade. Our editorial board members, Leslie Biesecker, Thomas Powles, Chris Del Mar, Robert Snow and David Moher, also comment on the changes they expect to see in their fields over the coming years.

Mammographic screening debate on study design: a need to move the field forward

The mammographic screening debate has been running for decades. The temperature of this debate is unusually high, and all participants, regardless of viewpoint, seem to have a conflict of interest. Another unusual aspect of this debate is the focus on study design, and in particular on designs that some think exceeded their usefulness decades ago. What are the questions that remain to be answered in this debate? Are there methodological issues that have not been adequately addressed? Do we have the right tools to provide up-to-date answers to how women can best protect themselves against dying from breast cancer? This commentary discusses some of the current issues.See related Opinion articles http://www.biomedcentral.com/1741-7015/10/106 and http://www.biomedcentral.com/1741-7015/10/163.