Challenges in measuring measles case fatality ratios in settings without vital registration

An Upsurge of Measles Cases in Mali-a Consequence of Pandemic-associated Disruption in Routine Immunization

Measles deaths highlight immunization program gaps. In the Child Health and Mortality Prevention Surveillance study in Mali, we observed a rise in under-5 measles-related deaths in 2022 that corresponded with increased measles cases at the same time and a decline in measles vaccine coverage in Mali in 2020.

Analysis and Factors Associated with Measles in Larut, Matang and Selama Districts, Perak, Malaysia

OBJECTIVES

To determine the incidence rate of measles and the factors associated with confirmed measles cases in Larut, Matang and Selama districts.

METHODS

Cross-sectional analysis was carried out looking at all suspected and laboratory-confirmed measles cases in Larut, Matang and Selama districts between 2015 and 2019. Multiple logistic regression analysis was used to determine the associated factors for laboratory-confirmed measles cases.

RESULTS

The incidence rate for suspected measles showed an increasing trend from 2015-2019. For laboratory-confirmed measles cases, the incidence rate showed more variation with an increase to 36.11 per million population in 2017 from 5.67 per million population in 2015. The incidence rate later decreased to 10.99 per million population in 2018 and increased again to 24.47 per million population in 2019. From multiple logistic regression analysis, cases that fulfilled the case definition of measles were more likely to be laboratory-confirmed measles. On the other hand, a prior history of measles immunisation was a protective factor.

CONCLUSION

Measles incidence is increasing in trend. Any suspected measles cases that fulfilled the clinical case definitions need to be further investigated. Immunisation should be promoted as they are effective in preventing and eliminating measles.

Descriptive epidemiology of measles surveillance data, Osun state, Nigeria, 2016-2018

Background

Globally, an estimate of 254,928 measles cases in 2015 and 89,780 deaths in 2016 occur annually. In Nigeria, measles is the fifth leading causes of under-five child mortality with 342 confirmed cases found in the first 9 epidemic weeks in some states including Osun State. We described the distribution, trend and make projection of measles cases in Osun State.

Methods

The Osun State surveillance weekly reporting data on measles cases from all its 30 Local Government Area (LGA) were reviewed, from January 2016 to December 2018 (n = 1205). Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics and a multiplicative time series model (MTSM). The MTSM was used to determine the trend, seasonality in the data and make projections for 2019 and 2020.

Results

Cases of measles were reported across the 30 LGAs of the state between January 2016 and December 2018. The rate of reported cases of measles was 20.2, 34.4 and 28.8 per 100,000 populations in 2016, 2017 and 2018 respectively in Ede south LGA where the highest rates were reported in the 3-year period. Out of the three studied years, year 2017, recorded the highest number of reported cases of measles in Osun State. The trend line for the 3-year period showed a positive correlation (r = + 0.4979, p = 0.056). The computed quarterly variation for the studied years was 1.094 for the 1st quarter, 1.162 for the 2nd quarter, 0.861 for the 3rd quarter and 0.888 for the 4th quarter. A quarterly projection for 2019 and 2020 showed an increasing trend with the second quarter of each year likely to have the highest reported cases of measles.

Conclusions

Ede south LGA has the highest proportion of reported measles cases in Osun State. Measles cases may increase in years ahead, but the second quarter of a year has the highest number. Government should strengthen the existing framework on measles reduction and more attention should be given to the second quarter of each year.

Risk factors for measles mortality and the importance of decentralized case management during an unusually large measles epidemic in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo in 2013

In 2013, a large measles epidemic occurred in the Aketi Health Zone of the Democratic Republic of Congo. We conducted a two-stage, retrospective cluster survey to estimate the attack rate, the case fatality rate, and the measles-specific mortality rate during the epidemic. 1424 households containing 7880 individuals were included. The estimated attack rate was 14.0%, (35.0% among children aged <5 years). The estimated case fatality rate was 4.2% (6.1% among children aged <5 years). Spatial analysis and linear regression showed that younger children, those who did not receive care, and those living farther away from Aketi Hospital early in the epidemic had a higher risk of measles related death. Vaccination coverage prior to the outbreak was low (76%), and a delayed reactive vaccination campaign contributed to the high attack rate. We provide evidences suggesting that a comprehensive case management approach reduced measles fatality during this epidemic in rural, inaccessible resource-poor setting.

Measles outbreak response among adolescent and adult Somali refugees displaced by famine in Kenya and Ethiopia, 2011

BACKGROUND

The refugee complexes of Dadaab, Kenya, and Dollo-Ado, Ethiopia, experienced measles outbreaks during June-November 2011, following a large influx of refugees from Somalia.

METHODS

Line-lists from health facilities were used to describe the outbreak in terms of age, sex, vaccination status, arrival date, attack rates (ARs), and case fatality ratios (CFRs) for each camp. Vaccination data and coverage surveys were reviewed.

RESULTS

In Dadaab, 1370 measles cases and 32 deaths (CFR, 2.3%) were reported. A total of 821 cases (60.1%) were aged ≥15 years, 906 (82.1%) arrived to the camps in 2011, and 1027 (79.6%) were unvaccinated. Camp-specific ARs ranged from 212 to 506 cases per 100 000 people. In Dollo-Ado, 407 cases and 23 deaths (CFR, 5.7%) were reported. Adults aged ≥15 years represented 178 cases (43.7%) and 6 deaths (26.0%). Camp-specific ARs ranged from 21 to 1100 cases per 100 000 people. Immunization activities that were part of the outbreak responses initially targeted children aged 6 months to 14 years and were later expanded to include individuals up to 30 years of age.

CONCLUSIONS

The target age group for outbreak response-associated immunization activities at the start of the outbreaks was inconsistent with the numbers of cases among unvaccinated adolescents and adults in the new population. In displacement of populations from areas affected by measles outbreaks, health authorities should consider vaccinating adults in routine and outbreak response activities.

Measles case fatality rate in Bihar, India, 2011-12

Background

Updated estimates of measles case fatality rates (CFR) are critical for monitoring progress towards measles elimination goals. India accounted for 36% of total measles deaths occurred globally in 2011. We conducted a retrospective cohort study to estimate measles CFR and identify the risk factors for measles death in Bihar–one of the north Indian states historically known for its low vaccination coverage.

Methods

We systematically selected 16 of the 31 laboratory-confirmed measles outbreaks occurring in Bihar during 1 October 2011 to 30 April 2012. All households of the villages/urban localities affected by these outbreaks were visited to identify measles cases and deaths. We calculated CFR and used multivariate analysis to identify risk factors for measles death.

Results

The survey found 3670 measles cases and 28 deaths (CFR: 0.78, 95% confidence interval: 0.47–1.30). CFR was higher among under-five children (1.22%) and children belonging to scheduled castes/tribes (SC/ST, 1.72%). On multivariate analysis, independent risk factors associated with measles death were age <5 years, SC/ST status and non-administration of vitamin A during illness. Outbreaks with longer interval between the occurrence of first case and notification of the outbreak also had a higher rate of deaths.

Conclusions

Measles CFR in Bihar was low. To further reduce case fatality, health authorities need to ensure that SC/ST are targeted by the immunization programme and that outbreak investigations target for vitamin A treatment of cases in high risk groups such as SC/ST and young children and ensure regular visits by health-workers in affected villages to administer vitamin A to new cases.

Community-based measles mortality surveillance in two districts of Katanga Province, Democratic Republic of Congo

Background

Mortality due to measles is often under-reported. Traditional methods of measuring mortality can be time and resource-intensive. We describe the implementation of a community-based method to monitor measles mortality.

Findings

Using standardized questionnaires in the midst of a measles outbreak, a community-based network of volunteers recorded a much larger number of deaths (376) than deaths recorded in health centres (27). Deaths were predominantly (93.5%) among children aged less than 5 years; 54.5% of measles deaths reported antecedent measles vaccination.

Conclusions

In this setting, the number of deaths due to measles reported in community-based surveillance was much higher than deaths reported in health centres. Lack of reliable population data and incomplete coverage of the surveillance system make it impossible to calculate overall attack rates and cause-specific mortality rates. Similar systems could be rapidly implemented in other difficult outbreak settings.

Antibiotics for preventing complications in children with measles

BACKGROUND

Measles is the leading killer among vaccine-preventable diseases; it is responsible for an estimated 44% of the 1.7 million vaccine-preventable deaths among children annually.

OBJECTIVES

To assess the effects of antibiotics given to children with measles to prevent complications and reduce pneumonia, other morbidities and mortality.

SEARCH METHODS

We searched CENTRAL 2013, Issue 4, MEDLINE (1966 to May week 4, 2013) and EMBASE (1980 to May 2013).

SELECTION CRITERIA

Randomised controlled trials (RCTs) and quasi-RCTs comparing antibiotics with placebo or no treatment, to prevent complications in children with measles.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

Two review authors independently extracted data and assessed trial quality.

MAIN RESULTS

Seven trials with 1263 children were included. The methodological quality of most studies was poor. Only two studies were randomized, double-blind trials. There was variation in antibiotics used, their doses, schedule and evaluation of outcome. Pooled study data showed that the incidence of pneumonia was lower in the treatment group compared to the control group. However, the difference was not statistically significant. Of the 654 children who received antibiotics, 27 (4.1%) developed pneumonia; while out of 609 children in the control group, 59 (9.6%) developed pneumonia (odds ratio (OR) 0.35; 95% confidence interval (0.12 to 1.01). The one trial that showed an increase in the rate of pneumonia with antibiotics was conducted in 1942 and compared oral sulfathiazole with symptomatic treatment. If the results of this trial are removed from the meta-analysis, there is a statistically significant reduction in the incidence of pneumonia in children receiving antibiotics (OR 0.26; 95% CI 0.12 to 0.60). The incidence of other complications was significantly lower in children receiving antibiotics: purulent otitis media (OR 0.34; 95% CI 0.16 to 0.73) and tonsillitis (OR 0.08; 95% CI 0.01 to 0.72). There was no difference in the incidence of conjunctivitis (OR 0.39; 95% CI 0.15 to 1.0), diarrhea (OR 0.53; 95% CI 0.23 to 1.22) or croup (OR 0.16; 95% CI 0.01 to 4.06). No major adverse effects attributable to antibiotics were reported.

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

The studies reviewed were of poor quality and used older antibiotics. This review suggests a beneficial effect of antibiotics in preventing complications such as pneumonia, purulent otitis media and tonsillitis in children with measles. On the basis of this review, it is not possible to recommend definitive guidelines on the type of antibiotic, duration or the day of initiation. There is a need for more evidence from high-quality RCTs to answer these questions.

Risk factors for measles mortality among hospitalized Somali refugees displaced by famine, Kenya, 2011

BACKGROUND

Measles among displaced, malnourished populations can result in a high case fatality ratio. In 2011, a large measles outbreak occurred in Dadaab, Kenya, among refugees fleeing famine and conflict in Somalia. The aim of this study was to identify predictors of measles deaths among hospitalized patients during the outbreak.

METHODS

A retrospective cohort study design was used to investigate measles mortality among hospitalized measles patients with a date of rash onset during 6 June-10 September 2011. Data were abstracted from medical records and a measles case was defined as an illness with fever, maculopapular rash, and either cough, coryza or conjunctivitis. Vaccination status was determined by patient or parental recall. Independent predictors of mortality were identified using logistic regression analysis.

RESULTS

Of 388 hospitalized measles patients, 188 (49%) were from hospital X, 70 (18%) from hospital Y, and 130 (34%) from hospital Z; median age was 22 years, 192 (50%) were 15-29 years of age, and 22 (6%) were vaccinated. The mean number of days from rash onset to hospitalization varied by hospital (hospital X = 5, hospital Y = 3, hospital Z = 6; P < .0001). Independent risk factors for measles mortality were neurological complications (odds ratio [OR], 12.8; 95% confidence interval [CI], 3.1-52.4), acute malnutrition (OR, 7.6; 95% CI, 1.3-44.3), and admission to hospital Z (OR, 4.2; 95% CI, 1.3-13.2).

CONCLUSIONS

Among Somali refugees, in addition to timely vaccination at border crossing points, early detection and treatment of acute malnutrition and proper management of measles cases may reduce measles mortality.

Progress in the elimination of measles and congenital rubella in Central Italy

Despite the launch of a WHO European Region strategic plan 2005-2010 for eliminating measles and rubella and preventing congenital rubella (CR) infection, measles and rubella are still circulating in Europe. Increased transmission and outbreaks of measles in Europe were still observed in 2011. In Italy, the objectives of the National Plan (2003-2007) for measles elimination have not yet been achieved. The goal of measles elimination and incidence reduction of CR cases has been postponed to 2015 by the Italian Ministry of Health through the implementation of the new National Plan 2010-2015 which will require (1) the achievement of more than 95% coverage with 1 dose and two doses of measles containing vaccine (MCV), respectively, within 24 mo and within 12 y of age; (2) supplementary vaccination activities aimed at susceptible populations including adolescents, young adults and those at risk (health care and educational workers, military, groups "hard to reach" like nomads); and in addition, (3) reduction to less than 5% in the proportion of susceptible women of childbearing age (especially immigrant women). Experiences at regional level, like in Tuscany, have shown promising results in order to create an integrated surveillance system between regional and local health authorities, university and laboratory and in the future, to validate elimination. Moreover, the evaluation of all preventive activities performed in Tuscany during the last decade, immunization coverage data, sero-epidemiological population profile and incidence of measles and rubella cases has highlighted critical points which should be improved and good practices already implemented which should be maintained in the future in order to reach the new goals.

Antibiotics for preventing complications in children with measles

BACKGROUND

Measles is the leading killer among vaccine-preventable diseases, responsible for an estimated 44% of the 1.7 million vaccine-preventable deaths among children annually.

OBJECTIVES

To assess the effects of antibiotics given to children with measles to prevent complications and reduce pneumonia, other morbidities and mortality.

SEARCH STRATEGY

In this 2008 update we searched the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (The Cochrane Library 2008, Issue 1) MEDLINE (1966 to January week 1, 2008), EMBASE (1980 to December 2007) and the National Research Register (Issue 3, 2007).

SELECTION CRITERIA

Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) and quasi-RCTs comparing antibiotics with placebo or no treatment to prevent complications in children with measles.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

Two review authors independently extracted data and assessed trial quality.

MAIN RESULTS

Seven trials with 1385 children were included. Pooled study data showed that the incidence of pneumonia was lower in the treatment group compared to the control group. However, the difference was not statistically significant. In children who received antibiotics, 1.9% developed pneumonia, while in the control group 6% developed pneumonia (OR 0.28; 95% CI 0.06 to 1.25). The one trial that showed an increase in the rate of pneumonia with antibiotics was conducted in 1942 and compared oral sulfathiazole with symptomatic treatment. If the results of this trial are removed from the meta-analysis, and the remaining six studies are combined, there is a statistically significant reduction in the incidence of pneumonia in children receiving antibiotics (OR 0.17; 95% CI 0.05 to 0.65). The number needed to treat to prevent one episode of pneumonia is 24 patients. The incidence of other complications was significantly lower in children receiving antibiotics: purulent otitis media (OR 0.34; 95% CI 0.16 to 0.73) and tonsillitis (OR 0.08; 95% CI 0.01 to 0.72). There was no difference in the incidence of conjunctivitis (OR 0.39; 95% CI 0.15 to 1.0), diarrhea (OR 0.53; 95% CI 0.23 to 1.22) or croup (OR 0.16; 95% CI 0.01 to 4.06).

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

This review suggests a beneficial effect of antibiotics in preventing complications such as pneumonia, purulent otitis media and tonsillitis in children with measles. On the basis of this review, it is not possible to give definitive guidelines on the type of antibiotic, duration, or the day of initiation. Use of penicillin or co-trimoxazole may be considered. There is a need to generate more evidence by well planned RCTs to answer these questions.