Aerosol influenza transmission risk contours: a study of humid tropics versus winter temperate zone

Effects of environmental conditions on COVID-19 morbidity as an example of multicausality: a multi-city case study in Italy

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), broke out in December 2019 in Wuhan city, in the Hubei province of China. Since then, it has spread practically all over the world, disrupting many human activities. In temperate climates overwhelming evidence indicates that its incidence increases significantly during the cold season. Italy was one of the first nations, in which COVID-19 reached epidemic proportions, already at the beginning of 2020. There is therefore enough data to perform a systematic investigation of the correlation between the spread of the virus and the environmental conditions. The objective of this study is the investigation of the relationship between the virus diffusion and the weather, including temperature, wind, humidity and air quality, before the rollout of any vaccine and including rapid variation of the pollutants (not only their long term effects as reported in the literature). Regarding them methodology, given the complexity of the problem and the sparse data, robust statistical tools based on ranking (Spearman and Kendall correlation coefficients) and innovative dynamical system analysis techniques (recurrence plots) have been deployed to disentangle the different influences. In terms of results, the evidence indicates that, even if temperature plays a fundamental role, the morbidity of COVID-19 depends also on other factors. At the aggregate level of major cities, air pollution and the environmental quantities affecting it, particularly the wind intensity, have no negligible effect. This evidence should motivate a rethinking of the public policies related to the containment of this type of airborne infectious diseases, particularly information gathering and traffic management.

Association of temperature and relative humidity with the growth rate of the coronavirus disease 2019 epidemic

The effects of temperature and relative humidity on the growth of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) remain unclear. Data on the COVID-19 epidemic that were analyzed in this study were obtained from the official websites of the National Health Commission of China and the Health Commissions of 31 provinces in China. From January 26 to February 25, 2020, the cumulative number of confirmed COVID-19 cases in each region was counted daily using data from our database. Curve fitting of daily scatter plots of the relationship between epidemic growth rate (GR) with average temperature (AT) and average relative humidity (ARH) was conducted using the loess method. The heterogeneity across days and provinces was calculated to assess the necessity of using a longitudinal model. Fixed-effect models with polynomial terms were developed to quantify the relationship between variations in the GR and AT or ARH. An increased AT markedly reduced the GR when the AT was lower than -5°C, the GR was moderately reduced when the AT ranged from -5°C to 15°C, and the GR increased when the AT exceeded 15°C. ARH increased the GR when it was less than 72% and reduced the GR when it exceeded 72%. The temperature and relative humidity curves were not linearly associated with the GR of COVID-19. The GR was moderately reduced when the AT ranged from -5°C to 15°C. When the AT was lower or higher than -5°C to 15°C, the GR of COVID-19 increased. An increased ARH increased the GR when the ARH was lower than 72% and reduced the GR when the ARH exceeded 72%.

Indoor Environmental Factors and Acute Respiratory Illness in a Prospective Cohort of Community-Dwelling Older Adults

BACKGROUND

Ambient environmental factors have been associated with respiratory infections in ecological studies, but few studies have explored the impact of indoor environmental factors in detail. The current study aimed to investigate the impact of indoor environment on the risk of acute respiratory illness (ARI) in a subtropical city.

METHOD

A prospective cohort study was conducted in 285 community-dwelling older adults from December 2016 through May 2019. Individual household indoor environment data and ARI incidence were continuously collected. A time-stratified case-crossover analysis was conducted to estimate the excess risk of ARI associated with per-unit increase of daily mean indoor temperature, relative humidity, and absolute humidity (AH).

RESULT

In total, 168 episodes of ARI were reported with an average risk of 36.8% per year. We observed a negative association of ARI with indoor AH up to 5 lag days in cool seasons, with a 6-day cumulative excess risk estimate of -9.0% (95% confidence interval, -15.9% to -1.5%). Negative associations between household temperature or relative humidity and ARI were less consistent across warm and cool seasons.

CONCLUSIONS

Lower indoor AH in household was associated with a higher risk of ARI in the community-dwelling older adults in Hong Kong during cold seasons.

Health, work performance, and risk of infection in office-like environments: The role of indoor temperature, air humidity, and ventilation

Epidemiological and experimental studies have revealed the effects of the room temperature, indoor air humidity, and ventilation on human health, work and cognitive performance, and risk of infection. In this overview, we integrate the influence of these important microclimatic parameters and assess their influence in offices based on literature searches. The dose-effect curves of the temperature describe a concave shape. Low temperature increases the risk of cardiovascular and respiratory diseases and elevated temperature increases the risk of acute non-specific symptoms, e.g., dry eyes, and respiratory symptoms. Cognitive and work performance is optimal between 22 °C and 24 °C for regions with temperate or cold climate, but both higher and lower temperatures may deteriorate the performances and learning efficiency. Low temperature may favor virus viability, however, depending on the status of the physiological tissue in the airways. Low indoor air humidity causes vulnerable eyes and airways from desiccation and less efficient mucociliary clearance. This causes elevation of the most common mucous membrane-related symptoms, like dry and tired eyes, which deteriorates the work performance. Epidemiological, experimental, and clinical studies support that intervention of dry indoor air conditions by humidification alleviates symptoms of dry eyes and airways, fatigue symptoms, less complaints about perceived dry air, and less compromised work performance. Intervention of dry air conditions by elevation of the indoor air humidity may be a non-pharmaceutical treatment of the risk of infection by reduced viability and transport of influenza virus. Relative humidity between 40 and 60% appears optimal for health, work performance, and lower risk of infection. Ventilation can reduce both acute and chronic health outcomes and improve work performance, because the exposure is reduced by the dilution of the indoor air pollutants (including pathogens, e.g., as virus droplets), and in addition to general emission source control strategies. Personal control of ventilation appears an important factor that influences the satisfaction of the thermal comfort due to its physical and positive psychological impact. However, natural ventilation or mechanical ventilation can become sources of air pollutants, allergens, and pathogens of outdoor or indoor origin and cause an increase in exposure. The "health-based ventilation rate" in a building should meet WHO's air quality guidelines and dilute human bio-effluent emissions to reach an acceptable perceived indoor air quality. Ventilation is a modifying factor that should be integrated with both the indoor air humidity and the room temperature in a strategic joint control to satisfy the perceived indoor air quality, health, working performance, and minimize the risk of infection.

Predicting SARS-CoV-2 Weather-Induced Seasonal Virulence from Atmospheric Air Enthalpy

Following the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, several studies have examined the possibility of correlating the virulence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), the virus that causes COVID-19, to the climatic conditions of the involved sites; however, inconclusive results have been generally obtained. Although neither air temperature nor humidity can be independently correlated with virus viability, a strong relationship between SARS-CoV-2 virulence and the specific enthalpy of moist air appears to exist, as confirmed by extensive data analysis. Given this framework, the present study involves a detailed investigation based on the first 20-30 days of the epidemic before public health interventions in 30 selected Italian provinces with rather different climates, here assumed as being representative of what happened in the country from North to South, of the relationship between COVID-19 distributions and the climatic conditions recorded at each site before the pandemic outbreak. Accordingly, a correlating equation between the incidence rate at the early stage of the epidemic and the foregoing average specific enthalpy of atmospheric air was developed, and an enthalpy-based seasonal virulence risk scale was proposed to predict the potential danger of COVID-19 outbreak due to the persistence of weather conditions favorable to SARS-CoV-2 viability. As an early detection tool, an unambiguous risk chart expressed in terms of coupled temperatures and relative humidity (RH) values was provided, showing that safer conditions occur in the case of higher RHs at the highest temperatures, and of lower RHs at the lowest temperatures. Despite the complex determinism and dynamics of the pandemic and the related caveats, the restriction of the study to its early stage allowed the proposed risk scale to result in agreement with the available infectivity data highlighted in the literature for a number of cities around the world.

Investigation of the Importance of Climatic Factors in COVID-19 Worldwide Intensity

The transmission of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) and the severity of the related disease (COVID-19) are influenced by a large number of factors. This study aimed to investigate the correlation of COVID-19 case and death rates with possible causal climatological and sociodemographic factors for the March to May 2020 (first wave) period in a worldwide scale by statistically processing data for over one hundred countries. The weather parameters considered herein were air temperature, relative humidity, cumulative precipitation, and cloud cover, while sociodemographic factors included population density, median age, and government measures in response to the pandemic. The results of this study indicate that there is a statistically significant correlation between average atmospheric temperature and the COVID-19 case and death rates, with chi-square test p-values in the 0.001-0.02 range. Regarding sociodemographic factors, there is an even stronger dependence of the case and death rates on the population median age (p = 0.0006-0.0012). Multivariate linear regression analysis using Lasso and the forward stepwise approach revealed that the median age ranks first in importance among the examined variables, followed by the temperature and the delays in taking first governmental measures or issuing stay-at-home orders.

Soft matter science and the COVID-19 pandemic

Much of the science underpinning the global response to the COVID-19 pandemic lies in the soft matter domain. Coronaviruses are composite particles with a core of nucleic acids complexed to proteins surrounded by a protein-studded lipid bilayer shell. A dominant route for transmission is via air-borne aerosols and droplets. Viral interaction with polymeric body fluids, particularly mucus, and cell membranes controls their infectivity, while their interaction with skin and artificial surfaces underpins cleaning and disinfection and the efficacy of masks and other personal protective equipment. The global response to COVID-19 has highlighted gaps in the soft matter knowledge base. We survey these gaps, especially as pertaining to the transmission of the disease, and suggest questions that can (and need to) be tackled, both in response to COVID-19 and to better prepare for future viral pandemics.

On the Optimal Indoor Air Conditions for SARS-CoV-2 Inactivation. An Enthalpy-Based Approach

In the CoViD-19 pandemic, the precautionary approach suggests that all possible measures should be established and implemented to avoid contagion, including through aerosols. For indoor spaces, the virulence of SARS-CoV-2 could be mitigated not only via air changes, but also by heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems maintaining thermodynamic conditions possibly adverse to the virus. However, data available in literature on virus survival were never treated aiming to this. In fact, based on comparisons in terms of specific enthalpy, a domain of indoor comfort conditions between 50 and 60 kJ/kg is found to comply with this objective, and an easy-to-use relationship for setting viable pairs of humidity and temperature using a proper HVAC plant is proposed. If confirmed via further investigations on this research path, these findings could open interesting scenarios on the use of indoor spaces during the pandemic.

Evaluating the impact of the weather conditions on the influenza propagation

Background

Predicting the details of how an epidemic evolves is highly valuable as health institutions need to better plan towards limiting the infection propagation effects and optimizing their prediction and response capabilities. Simulation is a cost- and time-effective way of predicting the evolution of the infection as the joint influence of many different factors: interaction patterns, personal characteristics, travel patterns, meteorological conditions, previous vaccination, etc. The work presented in this paper extends EpiGraph, our influenza epidemic simulator, by introducing a meteorological model as a modular component that interacts with the rest of EpiGraph’s modules to refine our previous simulation results. Our goal is to estimate the effects of changes in temperature and relative humidity on the patterns of epidemic influenza based on data provided by the Spanish Influenza Sentinel Surveillance System (SISSS) and the Spanish Meteorological Agency (AEMET).

Methods

Our meteorological model is based on the regression model developed by AB and JS, and it is tuned with influenza surveillance data obtained from SISSS. After pre-processing this data to clean it and reconstruct missing samples, we obtain new values for the reproduction number of each urban region in Spain, every 10 minutes during 2011. We simulate the propagation of the influenza by setting the date of the epidemic onset and the initial influenza-illness rates for each urban region.

Results

We show that the simulation results have the same propagation shape as the weekly influenza rates as recorded by SISSS. We perform experiments for a realistic scenario based on actual meteorological data from 2010-2011, and for synthetic values assumed under simplified predicted climate change conditions. Results show that a diminishing relative humidity of 10% produces an increment of about 1.6% in the final infection rate. The effect of temperature changes on the infection spread is also noticeable, with a decrease of 1.1% per extra degree.Conclusions: Using a tool like ours could help predict the shape of developing epidemics and its peaks, and would permit to quickly run scenarios to determine the evolution of the epidemic under different conditions. We make EpiGraph source code and epidemic data publicly available.

Precision public health to inhibit the contagion of disease and move toward a future in which microbes spread health

Antimicrobial resistance continues to outpace the development of new chemotherapeutics. Novel pathogens continue to evolve and emerge. Public health innovation has the potential to open a new front in the war of "our wits against their genes" (Joshua Lederberg). Dense sampling coupled to next generation sequencing can increase the spatial and temporal resolution of microbial characterization while sensor technologies precisely map physical parameters relevant to microbial survival and spread. Microbial, physical, and epidemiological big data could be combined to improve prospective risk identification. However, applied in the wrong way, these approaches may not realize their maximum potential benefits and could even do harm. Minimizing microbial-human interactions would be a mistake. There is evidence that microbes previously thought of at best "benign" may actually enhance human health. Benign and health-promoting microbiomes may, or may not, spread via mechanisms similar to pathogens. Infectious vaccines are approaching readiness to make enhanced contributions to herd immunity. The rigorously defined nature of infectious vaccines contrasts with indigenous "benign or health-promoting microbiomes" but they may converge. A "microbial Neolithic revolution" is a possible future in which human microbial-associations are understood and managed analogously to the macro-agriculture of plants and animals. Tradeoffs need to be framed in order to understand health-promoting potentials of benign, and/or health-promoting microbiomes and infectious vaccines while also discouraging pathogens. Super-spreaders are currently defined as individuals who play an outsized role in the contagion of infectious disease. A key unanswered question is whether the super-spreader concept may apply similarly to health-promoting microbes. The complex interactions of individual rights, community health, pathogen contagion, the spread of benign, and of health-promoting microbiomes including infectious vaccines require study. Advancing the detailed understanding of heterogeneity in microbial spread is very likely to yield important insights relevant to public health.

Mechanistic insights into the effect of humidity on airborne influenza virus survival, transmission and incidence

Influenza incidence and seasonality, along with virus survival and transmission, appear to depend at least partly on humidity, and recent studies have suggested that absolute humidity (AH) is more important than relative humidity (RH) in modulating observed patterns. In this perspective article, we re-evaluate studies of influenza virus survival in aerosols, transmission in animal models and influenza incidence to show that the combination of temperature and RH is equally valid as AH as a predictor. Collinearity must be considered, as higher levels of AH are only possible at higher temperatures, where it is well established that virus decay is more rapid. In studies of incidence that employ meteorological data, outdoor AH may be serving as a proxy for indoor RH in temperate regions during the wintertime heating season. Finally, we present a mechanistic explanation based on droplet evaporation and its impact on droplet physics and chemistry for why RH is more likely than AH to modulate virus survival and transmission.

Mechanistic insights into the effect of humidity on airborne influenza virus survival, transmission and incidence

Influenza incidence and seasonality, along with virus survival and transmission, appear to depend at least partly on humidity, and recent studies have suggested that absolute humidity (AH) is more important than relative humidity (RH) in modulating observed patterns. In this perspective article, we re-evaluate studies of influenza virus survival in aerosols, transmission in animal models and influenza incidence to show that the combination of temperature and RH is equally valid as AH as a predictor. Collinearity must be considered, as higher levels of AH are only possible at higher temperatures, where it is well established that virus decay is more rapid. In studies of incidence that employ meteorological data, outdoor AH may be serving as a proxy for indoor RH in temperate regions during the wintertime heating season. Finally, we present a mechanistic explanation based on droplet evaporation and its impact on droplet physics and chemistry for why RH is more likely than AH to modulate virus survival and transmission.

School sessions are correlated with seasonal outbreaks of medically attended respiratory infections: electronic health record time series analysis, Wisconsin 2004-2011

Increased social contact within school settings is thought to be an important factor in seasonal outbreaks of acute respiratory infection (ARI). To better understand the degree of impact, we analysed electronic health records and compared risks of respiratory infections within communities while schools were in session and out-of-session. A time series analysis of weekly respiratory infection diagnoses from 28 family medicine clinics in Wisconsin showed that people under the age of 65 experienced an increased risk of ARI when schools were in session. For children aged 5-17 years, the risk ratio for the first week of a school session was 1.12 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.93-1.34), the second week of a session was 1.39 (95% CI 1.15-1.68) and more than 2 weeks into a session was 1.43 (95% CI 1.20-1.71). Less significant increased risk ratios were also observed in young children (0-4 years) and adults (18-64 years). These results were obtained after modelling for baseline seasonal variations in disease prevalence and controlling for short-term changes in ambient temperature and relative humidity. Understanding the mechanisms of seasonality make it easier to predict outbreaks and launch timely public health interventions.

[Health Risk Factors for Housing Environment and Risk Management]

After the 1990s, many effective measures were taken to improve indoor air pollution in Japan. However, as a result of major changes in building materials, consumer products, and lifestyle, and new scientific findings on health effects associated with indoor environmental pollution, new issues have been indicated, such as chemical pollutants in indoor dusts or indoor pollutants caused by new chemicals that were substituted from chemicals that Indoor Air Quality Guideline was set. On the other hand, scientific evidence for the links between housing environment and health has accumulated substantially in recent decades. Therefore, the World Health Organization (WHO) is developing Housing and Health Guidelines to provide policymakers with recommendations on healthy housing conditions such as thermal comfort, indoor air pollution, crowding, and home injuries. In this paper, the basic principles of healthy housing, the current status of Japanese dwellings, and the recent approaches of WHO are summarized.

Influenza transmission during extreme indoor conditions in a low-resource tropical setting

Influenza transmission occurs throughout the planet across wide-ranging environmental conditions. However, our understanding of the environmental factors mediating transmission is evaluated using outdoor environmental measurements, which may not be representative of the indoor conditions where influenza is transmitted. In this study, we examined the relationship between indoor environment and influenza transmission in a low-resource tropical population. We used a case-based ascertainment design to enroll 34 households with a suspected influenza case and then monitored households for influenza, while recording indoor temperature and humidity data in each household. We show that the indoor environment is not commensurate with outdoor conditions and that the relationship between indoor and outdoor conditions varies significantly across homes. We also show evidence of influenza transmission in extreme indoor environments. Specifically, our data suggests that indoor environments averaged 29 °C, 18 g/kg specific humidity, and 68 % relative humidity across 15 transmission events observed. These indoor settings also exhibited significant temporal variability with temperatures as high as 39 °C and specific and relative humidity increasing to 22 g/kg and 85 %, respectively, during some transmission events. However, we were unable to detect differences in the transmission efficiency by indoor temperature or humidity conditions. Overall, these results indicate that laboratory studies investigating influenza transmission and virus survival should increase the range of environmental conditions that they assess and that observational studies investigating the relationship between environment and influenza activity should use caution using outdoor environmental measurements since they can be imprecise estimates of the conditions that mediate transmission indoors.

Respiratory viruses and torque teno virus in adults with acute respiratory infections

Objective

To define the molecular epidemiology of respiratory viral infections in adult patients.

Methods

Nasal and throat swabs were collected from all adult patients with influenza-like illness (ILI), acute respiratory infection (ARI), or severe ARI (SARI) admitted to a tertiary hospital in Surakarta, Indonesia, between March 2010 and April 2011 and analyzed for 19 respiratory viruses and for torque teno virus (TTV) and human gyrovirus (HGyV).

Results

Respiratory viruses were detected in 61.3% of the subjects, most of whom had ARI (90.8%, OR = 11.39), were hospitalized (96.9%, OR = 22.31), had asthma exacerbation (90.9%, OR = 8.67), and/or had pneumonia (80%, OR = 4.0). Human rhinovirus (HRV) A43 predominated. Influenza A H3N2, human metapneumovirus (HMPV) subtypes A1 and A2, the influenza B virus, human adenovirus B, and human coronavirus OC43 were also detected. All respiratory viruses were detected in the transition month between the rainy and dry seasons. No mixed respiratory virus infection was found. Coinfections of the influenza A H3N2 virus with TTV, HMPV with TTV, HRV with TTV, and human parainfluenza virus-3 with TTV were found in 4.7, 2.8, 19.8, and 0.9% of the samples, respectively.

Conclusions

This study highlights the need to perform routine detection of respiratory viruses in adults hospitalized with ARI, asthma exacerbation, and/or pneumonia.

Environmental Conditions Affect Exhalation of H3N2 Seasonal and Variant Influenza Viruses and Respiratory Droplet Transmission in Ferrets

The seasonality of influenza virus infections in temperate climates and the role of environmental conditions like temperature and humidity in the transmission of influenza virus through the air are not well understood. Using ferrets housed at four different environmental conditions, we evaluated the respiratory droplet transmission of two influenza viruses (a seasonal H3N2 virus and an H3N2 variant virus, the etiologic virus of a swine to human summertime infection) and concurrently characterized the aerosol shedding profiles of infected animals. Comparisons were made among the different temperature and humidity conditions and between the two viruses to determine if the H3N2 variant virus exhibited enhanced capabilities that may have contributed to the infections occurring in the summer. We report here that although increased levels of H3N2 variant virus were found in ferret nasal wash and exhaled aerosol samples compared to the seasonal H3N2 virus, enhanced respiratory droplet transmission was not observed under any of the environmental settings. However, overall environmental conditions were shown to modulate the frequency of influenza virus transmission through the air. Transmission occurred most frequently at 23°C/30%RH, while the levels of infectious virus in aerosols exhaled by infected ferrets agree with these results. Improving our understanding of how environmental conditions affect influenza virus infectivity and transmission may reveal ways to better protect the public against influenza virus infections.

Influenza Burden and Transmission in the Tropics

Each year, influenza causes substantial mortality and morbidity worldwide. It is important to understand influenza in the tropics because of the significant burden in the region and its relevance to global influenza circulation. In this review, influenza burden, transmission dynamics, and their determinants in the tropics are discussed. Environmental, cultural, and social conditions in the tropics are very diverse and often differ from those of temperate regions. Theories that account for and predict influenza dynamics in temperate regions do not fully explain influenza epidemic patterns observed in the tropics. Routine surveillance and household studies have been useful in understanding influenza dynamics in the tropics, but these studies have been limited to only some regions; there is still a lack of information regarding influenza burden and transmission dynamics in many tropical countries. Further studies in the tropics will provide useful insight on many questions that remain.

How should social mixing be measured: comparing web-based survey and sensor-based methods

Background

Contact surveys and diaries have conventionally been used to measure contact networks in different settings for elucidating infectious disease transmission dynamics of respiratory infections. More recently, technological advances have permitted the use of wireless sensor devices, which can be worn by individuals interacting in a particular social context to record high resolution mixing patterns. To date, a direct comparison of these two different methods for collecting contact data has not been performed.

Methods

We studied the contact network at a United States high school in the spring of 2012. All school members (i.e., students, teachers, and other staff) were invited to wear wireless sensor devices for a single school day, and asked to remember and report the name and duration of all of their close proximity conversational contacts for that day in an online contact survey. We compared the two methods in terms of the resulting network densities, nodal degrees, and degree distributions. We also assessed the correspondence between the methods at the dyadic and individual levels.

Results

We found limited congruence in recorded contact data between the online contact survey and wireless sensors. In particular, there was only negligible correlation between the two methods for nodal degree, and the degree distribution differed substantially between both methods. We found that survey underreporting was a significant source of the difference between the two methods, and that this difference could be improved by excluding individuals who reported only a few contact partners. Additionally, survey reporting was more accurate for contacts of longer duration, and very inaccurate for contacts of shorter duration. Finally, female participants tended to report more accurately than male participants.

Conclusions

Online contact surveys and wireless sensor devices collected incongruent network data from an identical setting. This finding suggests that these two methods cannot be used interchangeably for informing models of infectious disease dynamics.

High humidity leads to loss of infectious influenza virus from simulated coughs

Background

The role of relative humidity in the aerosol transmission of influenza was examined in a simulated examination room containing coughing and breathing manikins.

Methods

Nebulized influenza was coughed into the examination room and Bioaerosol samplers collected size-fractionated aerosols (<1 µM, 1–4 µM, and >4 µM aerodynamic diameters) adjacent to the breathing manikin’s mouth and also at other locations within the room. At constant temperature, the RH was varied from 7–73% and infectivity was assessed by the viral plaque assay.

Results

Total virus collected for 60 minutes retained 70.6–77.3% infectivity at relative humidity ≤23% but only 14.6–22.2% at relative humidity ≥43%. Analysis of the individual aerosol fractions showed a similar loss in infectivity among the fractions. Time interval analysis showed that most of the loss in infectivity within each aerosol fraction occurred 0–15 minutes after coughing. Thereafter, losses in infectivity continued up to 5 hours after coughing, however, the rate of decline at 45% relative humidity was not statistically different than that at 20% regardless of the aerosol fraction analyzed.

Conclusion

At low relative humidity, influenza retains maximal infectivity and inactivation of the virus at higher relative humidity occurs rapidly after coughing. Although virus carried on aerosol particles <4 µM have the potential for remaining suspended in air currents longer and traveling further distances than those on larger particles, their rapid inactivation at high humidity tempers this concern. Maintaining indoor relative humidity >40% will significantly reduce the infectivity of aerosolized virus.

Influence of extreme weather and meteorological anomalies on outbreaks of influenza A (H1N1)

Biological experiments and epidemiological evidence indicate that variations in environment have important effect on the occurrence and transmission of epidemic influenza. It is therefore important to understand the characteristic patterns of transmission for prevention of disease and reduction of disease burden. Based on case records, we analyzed the environmental characteristics including climate variables in Changsha, and then constructed a meteorological anomaly susceptive-infective-removal (SIR) model on the basis of the results of influenza A (H1N1) transmission. The results showed that the outbreak of influenza A (H1N1) in Changsha showed significant correlation with meteorological conditions; the spread of influenza was sensitive to meteorological anomalies, and that the outbreak of influenza A (H1N1) in Changsha was influenced by a combination of absolute humidity anomalous weather conditions, contact rates of the influenza patients and changes in population movements. These findings will provide helpful information regarding prevention strategies under different conditions, a fresh understanding of the emergence and re-emergence of influenza outbreaks, and a new perspective on the transmission dynamics of influenza.

A mouse model for the study of contact-dependent transmission of influenza A virus and the factors that govern transmissibility

Influenza A virus transmission by direct contact is not well characterized. Here, we describe a mouse model for investigation of factors regulating contact-dependent transmission. Strains within the H3N2 but not H1N1 subtype of influenza virus were transmissible, and reverse-engineered viruses representing hybrids of these subtypes showed that the viral hemagglutinin is a determinant of the transmissible phenotype. Transmission to contact mice occurred within the first 6 to 54 h after cohousing with directly infected index mice, and the proportion of contacts infected within this period was reduced if the index mice had been preinfected with a heterologous subtype virus. A threshold level of virus present in the saliva of the index mice was identified, above which the likelihood of transmission was greatly increased. There was no correlation with transmission and viral loads in the nose or lung. This model could be useful for preclinical evaluation of antiviral and vaccine efficacy in combating contact-dependent transmission of influenza.

Investigating the effect of high spring incidence of pandemic influenza A(H1N1) on early autumn incidence

A pandemic H1N1 infection wave in the USA occurred during spring 2009. Some hypothesized that for regions affected by the spring wave, an autumn outbreak would be less likely or delayed compared to unaffected regions because of herd immunity. We investigated this hypothesis using the Outpatient Influenza-like Illness (ILI) Network, a collaboration among the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, health departments, and care providers. We evaluated the likelihood of high early autumn incidence given high spring incidence in core-based statistical areas (CBSAs). Using a surrogate incidence measure based on influenza-related illness ratios, we calculated the odds of high early autumn incidence given high spring incidence. CBSAs with high spring ILI ratios proved more likely than unaffected CBSAs to have high early autumn ratios, suggesting that elevated spring illness did not protect against early autumn increases. These novel methods are applicable to planning and studies involving other infectious diseases.

Influenza transmission during a one-year period (2009-2010) in a Sahelian city: low temperature plays a major role

Please cite this paper as: Jusot J‐François et al. (2011) Influenza transmission during a one‐year period (2009–2010) in a Sahelian city: low temperature plays a major role. Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses DOI: 10.1111/j.1750‐2659.2011.00286.x.

This work aimed at studying the link between some climatic factors and the occurrence of influenza in Niamey, Niger. Patients with influenza like illness or severe acute respiratory illness were recruited through a sentinel network. A nasopharyngeal swab was sampled and tested for influenza viruses A and B by RT‐PCR. Time series of daily counts of influenza cases and climatic factors were linked using a generalized additive model. Among the 320 patients recruited, 76 were confirmed positive for influenza. Influenza cases increased significantly with minimal temperatures and high visibility. This work brings some valuable explanation to the impact of low temperatures on influenza transmission.

Sentinel surveillance of influenza-like-illness in two cities of the tropical country of Ecuador: 2006-2010

BACKGROUND

Tropical countries are thought to play an important role in the global behavior of respiratory infections such as influenza. The tropical country of Ecuador has almost no documentation of the causes of acute respiratory infections. The objectives of this study were to identify the viral agents associated with influenza like illness (ILI) in Ecuador, describe what strains of influenza were circulating in the region along with their epidemiologic characteristics, and perform molecular characterization of those strains.

METHODOLOGY/FINDINGS

This is a prospective surveillance study of the causes of ILI based on viral culture of oropharyngeal specimens and case report forms obtained in hospitals from two cities of Ecuador over 4 years. Out of 1,702 cases of ILI, nine viral agents were detected in 597 patients. During the time of the study, seven genetic variants of influenza circulated in Ecuador, causing six periods of increased activity. There appeared to be more heterogeneity in the cause of ILI in the tropical city of Guayaquil when compared with the Andean city of Quito.

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

This was the most extensive documentation of the viral causes of ILI in Ecuador to date. Influenza was a common cause of ILI in Ecuador, causing more than one outbreak per year. There was no well defined influenza season although there were periods of time when no influenza was detected alternating with epidemics of different variant strains.

Effect of prehydration on nasal mucociliary clearance in low relative humidity

OBJECTIVE

Nasal mucociliary clearance, which plays an important role in defending the respiratory system, tends to decrease under conditions of low relative humidity (RH). The purpose of this randomized cross-over study was to investigate the preventive effect of prehydration on nasal mucociliary clearance under low RH conditions.

METHODS

Fourteen young healthy subjects were assigned to three interventions: prehydration (6ml/kg body weight) using water (W), prehydration using a carbohydrate-electrolyte beverage (CE), and control conditions (Cont) with no prehydration. For each intervention trial, subjects sat for 4h in an environmental chamber (23°C, 10% RH). Nasal mucociliary clearance was measured by the saccharin transit time (ST). Furthermore, a dry sensation of the mucosa, urine volume, and body weight were measured at the baseline, 2h and 4h after entering the environmental chamber, respectively.

RESULTS

ST was prolonged under the Cont conditions after entering the environmental chamber. Prehydration with CE led to a significantly lower ST compared to the Cont pretreatment at 2h, whereas the W trial showed no significance difference in comparison to the Cont values.

CONCLUSION

These results suggest that prehydration with a carbohydrate-electrolyte beverage is therefore beneficial for maintaining better nasal mucociliary clearance at least for 2h under low RH conditions.