Are there any changes in burden and management of communicable diseases in areas affected by Cyclone Nargis?

Health impacts of climate change on smallholder farmers

The health of smallholder farmers is crucial for ensuring food and nutritional security for two billion people. However, their health is in jeopardy for several reasons including challenges from climate change impacts. Using a narrative literature review supported by field observations and informal interviews with key informants in India, Bangladesh and Malawi, this paper identifies and discusses the health impacts of climate change under four categories: (i) communicable diseases, (ii) non-communicable diseases, (iii) mental health, and (iv) occupational health, safety and other health issues. The health impacts of climate change on smallholder farmers will hamper the realization of many of the United Nations' Sustainable Development Goals, and a series of recommendations are made to regional and country governments to address the increasing health impacts of accelerating climate change among smallholder farmers.

Impact of climate change on dysentery: Scientific evidences, uncertainty, modeling and projections

Dysentery is water-borne and food-borne infectious disease and its incidence is sensitive to climate change. Although the impact of climate change on dysentery is being studied in specific areas, a systematic review is lacking. We searched the worldwide literature using three sets of keywords and six databases. We identified and selected 98 studies during 1866-2019 and reviewed the relevant findings. Climate change, including long-term variations in factors, such as temperature, precipitation, and humidity, and short-term variations in extreme weather events, such as floods and drought, mostly had a harmful impact on dysentery incidence. However, some uncertainty over the exact effects of climate factors exists, specifically in the different indexes for the same climate factor, various determinant indexes for different dysentery burdens, and divergent effects for different population groups. These complicate the accurate quantification of such impacts. We generalized two types of methods: sensitivity analysis, used to detect the sensitivity of dysentery to climate change, including Pearson's and Spearman's correlations; and mathematical models, which quantify the impact of climate on dysentery, and include models that examine the associations (including negative binomial regression models) and quantify correlations (including single generalized additive models and mixed models). Projection studies mostly predict disease risks, and some predict disease incidence based on climate models under RCP 4.5. Since some geographic heterogeneity exists in the climate-dysentery relationship, modeling and projection of dysentery incidence on a national or global scale remain challenging. The reviewed results have implications for the present and future. Current research should be extended to select appropriate and robust climate-dysentery models, reasonable disease burden measure, and appropriate climate models and scenarios. We recommend future studies focus on qualitative investigation of the mechanism involved in the impact of climate on dysentery, and accurate projection of dysentery incidence, aided by advancing accuracy of extreme weather forecasting.

Assessment of Epidemiological Implications Due to Serial Tropical Cyclones in India: Introspecting the Recent Sanitation Interventions

OBJECTIVES

The Indian subcontinent is prone to tropical cyclones that used to originate in the North Indian Ocean. Through this study, an inventory of disease outbreaks for the tropical cyclone-affected regions from 2010 to 2018 has been compiled. This inventory is used to assess the success of recent sanitation intervention, Swachh Bharat Mission, also known as the Clean India Mission.

METHODS

Meteorological parameters from the Indian satellites were used to demarcate the cyclone-affected area. Disease outbreaks and epidemics during the tropical cyclones were compiled from the Integrated Disease Surveillance Program and other relevant sources. The inventory has been used to track the effect of recent sanitation interventions on disease outbreaks.

RESULTS

Districts in the eastern coast of India are frequently affected due to tropical cyclones that have originated from the North Indian Ocean. Infectious diseases like the acute diarrheal diseases, vector-borne diseases, viral fevers, enteric fevers, and food poisoning have recursively occurred during the cyclonic events and persisted up to 2 weeks from the cyclonic episode. The effectiveness of the Clean India Mission is evident during the recent cyclones, Ockhi, Titli, and Gaja, where a significantly lower number of infectious disease outbreaks were recorded.

CONCLUSIONS

The Clean India Mission has exhibited positive results on the public health consequences associated with tropical cyclones.

Impacts of tropical cyclones and accompanying precipitation and wind velocity on childhood hand, foot and mouth disease in Guangdong Province, China

OBJECTIVE

Guangdong province is one of the provinces most frequently hit by tropical cyclones in China. Hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) continues to severely affect public health across the world. Our study aimed to evaluate the impacts of different grades of tropical cyclones and accompanying precipitation and wind velocity on HFMD among children younger than 6 years old in Guangdong province from 2009 to 2013.

METHODS

A time-stratified case-crossover design was used to examine the association between tropical cyclones and childhood HFMD. Principal component analysis (PCA) was first used to eliminate multicollinearity among meteorological variables. Conditional Poisson regression was then applied to calculate odds ratios (ORs) and the 95% confidence intervals (CIs).

RESULTS

Tropical storms increased the risk of HFMD among children below 6 years of age on lag 4 days (OR = 1.55, 95%CI: 1.28-1.88). Tropical storms were also a risk factor for boys below 3 years of age, boys between 3 and 6 and girls below 3 years of age with the largest OR = 1.52 (95%CI:1.15-2.00), OR = 1.81 (95%CI = 1.21-2.71) and OR = 1.51 (95%CI = 1.04-2.19), respectively. Precipitation during tropical cyclones had an adverse effect on childhood HFMD when reaching 25-49.9 mm or above 100 mm with OR = 1.20 (95%CI = 1.00-1.43) on lag 0 day and OR = 1.25 (95%CI = 1.04-1.49) on lag 7 days, respectively. For extreme wind velocity during tropical cyclones, the impact on childhood HFMD was largest on the day tropical cyclones landed (OR = 1.25, 95%CI: 1.06-1.48) with winds up to 13.9-24.4  m/s.

CONCLUSIONS

Tropical storms can increase the risk of HFMD among children younger than 3 years old, especially boys between 3 and 6 years old. Precipitation during tropical cyclones is a risk factor for childhood HFMD when it is between 25 and 49.9 mm or above 100 mm. As extreme wind velocity reaches 13.9-24.4  m/s, it has an adverse effect on children's health. Children below 3 years old and boys between 3 and 6 should be given more consideration during tropical storms.

Incidence of Typhoid and Paratyphoid Fevers Among Adolescents and Adults in Yangon, Myanmar

BACKGROUND

Accurate estimates of typhoid disease burden are needed to guide policy decisions, including on vaccine use. Data on the incidence of enteric fever in Myanmar are scarce. We estimated typhoid and paratyphoid fever incidence among adolescents and adults in Yangon, Myanmar, by combining sentinel hospital surveillance with a healthcare utilization survey.

METHODS

We conducted a population-based household health care utilization survey in the Yangon Region 12 March through 5 April 2018. Multipliers derived from this survey were then applied to hospital-based surveillance of Salmonella Typhi and Paratyphi A bloodstream infections from 5 October 2015 through 4 October 2016 at Yangon General Hospital (YGH) to estimate the incidence of typhoid and paratyphoid fevers among person ≥12 years of age.

RESULTS

A total of 336 households representing 1598 persons were enrolled in the health care utilization survey, and multipliers were derived based on responses to questions about healthcare seeking in the event of febrile illness. Of 671 Yangon residents enrolled over a 1-year period at YGH, we identified 33 (4.9%) with Salmonella Typhi and 9 (1.3%) with Salmonella Paratyphi A bloodstream infection. After applying multipliers, we estimated that the annual incidence of typhoid was 391 per 100 000 persons and paratyphoid was 107 per 100 000 persons.

CONCLUSIONS

Enteric fever incidence is high in Yangon, Myanmar, warranting increased attention on prevention and control, including consideration of typhoid conjugate vaccine use as well as nonvaccine control measures. Research on incidence among infants and children, as well as sources and modes of transmission is needed.

Parents' healthcare-seeking behavior for their children among the climate-related displaced population of rural Bangladesh

In Bangladesh climate change has contributed to a massive displacement of people. This study examines the effects of climate-related displacement, socioeconomic status, availability of healthcare providers and disease-related attributes on the healthcare-seeking behaviors of parents for their children. Using cross-sectional survey data from the parents of 1003 children aged under 15 who were ill in the four weeks prior to the interview, collected from 600 randomly-selected households in climate displacement-susceptible areas and 600 households in non-climate-displacement-susceptible areas in Bangladesh, we use multivariate logistic regression to identify the factors associated with parental healthcare-seeking behaviors. The results show that 15.5% of the children who had been ill receive either no care or curative care at home. Of those receiving care outside the home, only 22.1% are treated by trained providers. Climate-related displaced parents are significantly less likely to seek care or to use provider-prescribed care to manage children's illnesses. Areas lacking local healthcare providers, poorer households, females, child age and mild illness are also associated with a child being significantly less likely to be treated outside the home. The children of climate-related displaced parents are around half as likely as those of non-displaced parents to be treated by a trained provider. The local availability of medical doctors, cost of reaching a healthcare center, household income, type and severity of illness, child's age, and joint parental decision-making about care providers are also important predictors of the selection of trained healthcare providers for children. Thus, climate-related displacement affects the healthcare-seeking behaviors of parents for their children. Policy aimed at improving child health should address the socioeconomic disadvantage and access to healthcare of the displaced, the training of local untrained providers about Primary Health Care service provision, and the numbers of medical doctors in the displacement-prone areas.

Communicable Disease Surveillance Systems in Disasters: Application of the Input, Process, Product, and Outcome Framework for Performance Assessment

OBJECTIVE

One of the most important measures following disasters is setting up a communicable disease surveillance system (CDSS). This study aimed to develop indicators to assess the performance of CDSSs in disasters.

METHOD

In this 3-phase study, firstly a qualitative study was conducted through in-depth, semistructured interviews with experts on health in disasters and emergencies, health services managers, and communicable diseases center specialists. The interviews were analyzed, and CDSS performance assessment (PA) indicators were extracted. The appropriateness of these indicators was examined through a questionnaire administered to experts and heads of communicable diseases departments of medical sciences universities. Finally, the designed indicators were weighted using the analytic hierarchy process approach and Expert Choice software.

RESULTS

In this study, 51 indicators were designed, of which 10 were related to the input (19.61%), 17 to the process (33.33%), 13 to the product (25.49%), and 11 to the outcome (21.57%). In weighting, the maximum score was that of input (49.1), and the scores of the process, product, and outcome were 31.4, 12.7, and 6.8, respectively.

CONCLUSION

Through 3 different phases, PA indicators for 4 phases of a chain of results were developed. The authors believe that these PA indicators can assess the system's performance and its achievements in response to disasters. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2019;13:158-164).

No Calm After the Storm: A Systematic Review of Human Health Following Flood and Storm Disasters

Introduction How the burden of disease varies during different phases after floods and after storms is essential in order to guide a medical response, but it has not been well-described. The objective of this review was to elucidate the health problems following flood and storm disasters.

METHODS

A literature search of the databases Medline (US National Library of Medicine, National Institutes of Health; Bethesda, Maryland USA); Cinahl (EBSCO Information Services; Ipswich, Massachusetts USA); Global Health (EBSCO Information Services; Ipswich, Massachusetts USA); Web of Science Core Collection (Thomson Reuters; New York, New York USA); Embase (Elsevier; Amsterdam, Netherlands); and PubMed (National Center for Biotechnology Information, National Institutes of Health; Bethesda, Maryland USA) was conducted in June 2015 for English-language research articles on morbidity or mortality and flood or storm disasters. Articles on mental health, interventions, and rescue or health care workers were excluded. Data were extracted from articles that met the eligibility criteria and analyzed by narrative synthesis.

RESULTS

The review included 113 studies. Poisonings, wounds, gastrointestinal infections, and skin or soft tissue infections all increased after storms. Gastrointestinal infections were more frequent after floods. Leptospirosis and diabetes-related complications increased after both. The majority of changes occurred within four weeks of floods or storms.

CONCLUSION

Health changes differently after floods and after storms. There is a lack of data on the health effects of floods alone, long-term changes in health, and the strength of the association between disasters and health problems. This review highlights areas of consideration for medical response and the need for high-quality, systematic research in this area. Saulnier DD , Brolin Ribacke K , von Schreeb J . No calm after the storm: a systematic review of human health following flood and storm disasters. Prehosp Disaster Med. 2017;32(5):568-579.

Infectious Diseases and Tropical Cyclones in Southeast China

Southeast China is frequently hit by tropical cyclones (TCs) with significant economic and health burdens each year. However, there is a lack of understanding of what infectious diseases could be affected by tropical cyclones. This study aimed to examine the impacts of tropical cyclones on notifiable infectious diseases in southeast China. Disease data between 2005 and 2011 from four coastal provinces in southeast China, including Guangdong, Hainan, Zhejiang, and Fujian province, were collected. Numbers of cases of 14 infectious diseases were compared between risk periods and reference periods for each tropical cyclone. Risk ratios (RRs) were calculated to estimate the risks. TCs were more likely to increase the risk of bacillary dysentery, paratyphoid fever, dengue fever and acute hemorrhagic conjunctivitis (ps < 0.05) than to decrease the risk, more likely to decrease the risk of measles, mumps, varicella and vivax malaria (ps < 0.05) than to increase the risk. In conclusion, TCs have mixed effects on the risk of infectious diseases. TCs are more likely to increase the risk of intestinal and contact transmitted infectious diseases than to decrease the risk, and more likely to decrease the risk of respiratory infectious diseases than to increase the risk. Findings of this study would assist in developing public health strategies and interventions for the reduction of the adverse health impacts from tropical cyclones.

Impacts of different grades of tropical cyclones on infectious diarrhea in Guangdong, 2005-2011

Objective

Guangdong province is one of the most vulnerable provinces to tropical cyclones in China. Most prior studies concentrated on the relationship between tropical cyclones and injuries and mortality. This study aimed to explore the impacts of different grades of tropical cyclones on infectious diarrhea incidence in Guangdong province, from 2005 to 2011.

Methods

Mann-Whitney U test was firstly used to examine if infectious diarrhea were sensitive to tropical cyclone. Then unidirectional 1:1 case-crossover design was performed to quantitatively evaluate the relationship between daily number of infectious diarrhea and tropical cyclone from 2005 to 2011 in Guangdong, China. Principal component analysis (PCA) was applied to eliminate multicollinearity. Multivariate logistic regression model was used to estimate the hazard ratios (HRs) and the 95% confidence intervals (CI).

Results

There were no significant relationships between tropical cyclone and bacillary dysentery, amebic dysentery, typhoid, and paratyphoid cases. Infectious diarrhea other than cholera, dysentery, typhoid and paratyphoid significantly increased after tropical cyclones. The strongest effect were shown on lag 1 day (HRs = 1.95, 95%CI = 1.22, 3.12) and no lagged effect was detected for tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm and typhoon, with the largest HRs (95%CI) of 2.16 (95%CI = 1.69, 2.76), 2.43 (95%CI = 1.65, 3.58) and 2.21 (95%CI = 1.65, 2.69), respectively. Among children below 5 years old, the impacts of all grades of tropical cyclones were strongest at lag 0 day. And HRs were 2.67 (95%CI = 1.10, 6.48), 2.49 (95%CI = 1.80, 3.44), 4.89 (95%CI = 2.37, 7.37) and 3.18 (95%CI = 2.10, 4.81), respectively.

Conclusion

All grades of tropical cyclones could increase risk of other infectious diarrhea. Severe tropical storm has the strongest influence on other infectious diarrhea. The impacts of tropical cyclones on children under 5 years old were higher than total population.

Performance Assessment of a Communicable Disease Surveillance System in Response to the Twin Earthquakes of East Azerbaijan

OBJECTIVE

Following the twin earthquakes on August 11, 2012, in the East Azerbaijan province of Iran, the provincial health center set up a surveillance system to monitor communicable diseases. This study aimed to assess the performance of this surveillance system.

METHODS

In this quantitative-qualitative study, performance of the communicable diseases surveillance system was assessed by using the updated guidelines of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Qualitative data were collected through interviews with the surveillance system participants, and quantitative data were obtained from the surveillance system.

RESULTS

The surveillance system was useful, simple, representative, timely, and flexible. The data quality, acceptability, and stability of the surveillance system were 65.6%, 10.63%, and 100%, respectively. The sensitivity and positive predictive value were not calculated owing to the absence of a gold standard.

CONCLUSIONS

The surveillance system satisfactorily met the goals expected for its setup. The data obtained led to the control of communicable diseases in the affected areas. Required interventions based on the incidence of communicable disease were designed and implemented. The results also reassured health authorities and the public. However, data quality and acceptability should be taken into consideration and reviewed for implementation in future disasters.

Impacts of tropical cyclones and accompanying precipitation on infectious diarrhea in cyclone landing areas of Zhejiang Province, China

Background: Zhejiang Province, located in southeastern China, is frequently hit by tropical cyclones. This study quantified the associations between infectious diarrhea and the seven tropical cyclones that landed in Zhejiang from 2005–2011 to assess the impacts of the accompanying precipitation on the studied diseases. Method: A unidirectional case-crossover study design was used to evaluate the impacts of tropical storms and typhoons on infectious diarrhea. Principal component analysis (PCA) was applied to eliminate multicollinearity. A multivariate logistic regression model was used to estimate the odds ratios (ORs) and the 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Results: For all typhoons studied, the greatest impacts on bacillary dysentery and other infectious diarrhea were identified on lag 6 days (OR = 2.30, 95% CI: 1.81–2.93) and lag 5 days (OR = 3.56, 95% CI: 2.98–4.25), respectively. For all tropical storms, impacts on these diseases were highest on lag 2 days (OR = 2.47, 95% CI: 1.41–4.33) and lag 6 days (OR = 2.46, 95% CI: 1.69–3.56), respectively. The tropical cyclone precipitation was a risk factor for both bacillary dysentery and other infectious diarrhea when daily precipitation reached 25 mm and 50 mm with the largest OR = 3.25 (95% CI: 1.45–7.27) and OR = 3.05 (95% CI: 2.20–4.23), respectively. Conclusions: Both typhoons and tropical storms could contribute to an increase in risk of bacillary dysentery and other infectious diarrhea in Zhejiang. Tropical cyclone precipitation may also be a risk factor for these diseases when it reaches or is above 25 mm and 50 mm, respectively. Public health preventive and intervention measures should consider the adverse health impacts from tropical cyclones.

Communicable diseases surveillance system in East azerbaijan earthquake: strengths and weaknesses

Background: A Surveillance System was established for 19 diseases/syndromes in order to prevent and control communicable diseases after 2012 East Azerbaijan earthquakes. This study was conducted to investigate the strengths and weaknesses of the established SS. Methods: This study was carried out on an interview-based qualitative study using content analysis in 2012. Data was collected by semi-structured deep interviews and surveillance data. Fifteen interviews were conducted with experts and health system managers who were engaged in implementing the communicable disease surveillance system in the affected areas. The selection of participants was purposeful. Data saturation supported the sample size. The collected data was analyzed using the principles suggested by Strauss and Corbin. Results: Establishment of the disease surveillance system was rapid and inexpensive. It collected the required data fast. It also increased confidence in health authorities that the diseases would be under control in earthquake-stricken regions. Non estimated denominator for calculating the rates (incidence & prevalence), non-participation of the private sector and hospitals, rapid turnover of health staff and unfamiliarity with the definitions of the diseases were the weak points of the established disease SS. Conclusion: During the time when surveillance system was active, no significant outbreak of communicable diseases was reported. However, the surveillance system had some weaknesses. Thus, considering Iran’s susceptibility to various natural hazards, repeated exercises should be conducted in the preparedness phase to decrease the weaknesses. In addition, other types of surveillance system such as web-based or mobile-based systems should be piloted in disaster situations for future.

Mekong Basin Disease Surveillance (MBDS): a trust-based network

The Mekong Basin Disease Surveillance (MBDS) network was formally established in 2001 through a Memorandum of Understanding signed by six Ministers of Health of the countries in the Greater Mekong sub-region: Cambodia, China (Yunnan and Guangxi), Lao PDR, Myanmar, Thailand and Vietnam. The main areas of focus of the network are to: i) improve cross-border infectious disease outbreak investigation and response by sharing surveillance data and best practices in disease recognition and reporting, and by jointly responding to outbreaks; ii) develop expertise in epidemiological surveillance across the countries; and iii) enhance communication between the countries. Comprised of senior health officials, epidemiologists, health practitioners, and other professionals, the MBDS has grown and matured over the years into an entity based on mutual trust that can be sustained into the future. Other regions have started emulating the network's pioneering work. In this paper, we describe the development of MBDS, the way in which it operates today, and some of its achievements. We present key challenges the network has faced and lessons its members have learned about how to develop sufficient trust for health and other professionals to alert each other to disease threats across national borders and thereby more effectively combat these threats.

The Great East Japan Earthquake: a need to plan for post-disaster surveillance in developed countries

After a devastating earthquake and tsunami struck north-eastern Japan in March 2011, the public health system, including the infectious disease surveillance system, was severely compromised. While models for post-disaster surveillance exist, they focus predominantly on developing countries during the early recovery phase. Such models do not necessarily apply to developed countries, which differ considerably in their baseline surveillance systems. Furthermore, there is a need to consider the process by which a surveillance system recovers post-disaster. The event in Japan has highlighted a need to address these concerns surrounding post-disaster surveillance in developed countries. In May 2011, the World Health Organization convened a meeting where post-disaster surveillance was discussed by experts and public health practitioners. In this paper, we describe a post-disaster surveillance approach that was discussed at the meeting, based on what had actually occurred and what may have been, or would be, ideal. Briefly, we describe the evolution of a surveillance system as it returns to the pre-existing system, starting from an event-based approach during the emergency relief phase, a syndromic approach during the early recovery phase, an enhanced sentinel approach during the late recovery phase and a return to baseline during the development phase. Our aim is not to recommend a specific model but to encourage other developed countries to initiate their own discussions on post-disaster surveillance and develop plans according to their needs and capacities. As natural disasters will continue to occur, we hope that developing such plans during the "inter-disaster" period will help mitigate the surveillance challenges that will arise post-disaster.