Predictive P-score for treatment ranking in Bayesian network meta-analysis

Non-invasive treatments improve patient outcomes in chronic tinnitus: a systematic review and network meta-analysis

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the relative effectiveness of various Non-Invasive Treatment Techniques (NITs) in chronic tinnitus management.

METHODS

We searched PubMed, Embase and Cochrane Library databases from the time of data construction to December 31, 2022. According to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines, NITs were evaluated, including Aacceptance and commitment therapy (A), Cognitive behavioral therapy (C), Sound therapy (S), Transcranial magnetic stimulation (T), Electrical stimulation therapy (E), Virtual reality therapy (V), tinnitus Retraining therapy (R), general psychotherapy (D), and Placebo (P). The outcome indicators included the Tinnitus Handicap Inventory (THI), Tinnitus Questionnaire (TQ), Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale-anxiety-Depression (HADS-D), Insomnia Severity Index (ISI), Visual Analogue Scales-Loudness (VAS-L), and Visual Analogue Scales-Distress (VAS-D). Statistical analysis was performed using Stata 14.0 for NMA.

RESULTS

This systematic review and meta-analysis included 22 randomized controlled trials comprising 2,354 patients. The treatment effects varied on each scale. For THI, S (86.9%) was the most effective, whereas P (6.5%) was the worst. For TQ, C (89.5%) was the most effective, whereas D (25.4%) was the worst. For HADS-D, A (82.4%) was the most effective, whereas D (9.47%) was the worst. For ISI, A (83.2%) was the most effective, whereas R (20.6%) was the worst. For VAS-L, S (73.5%) was the most effective, whereas E (18.9%) was the worst. For VAS-D, C (84.7%) was the most effective, whereas P (18.1%) was the worst.

CONCLUSIONS

The combination of acoustics and cognitive behavioral therapy may be an effectively treat patients with chronic tinnitus.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE

How common is the problem? Level 2. Is this diagnostic or monitoring test accurate? (Diagnosis) Level 1. What will happen if we do not add a therapy? (Prognosis) Level 1. Does this intervention help? (Treatment Benefits) Level 1. What are the COMMON harms? (Treatment Harms) Level 1. What are the RARE harms? (Treatment Harms) Level 1. Is this (early detection) test worthwhile? (Screening) Level 1I.

De-escalation of dual antiplatelet therapy for patients with acute coronary syndrome after percutaneous coronary intervention: a systematic review and network meta-analysis

OBJECTIVES

To compare dual antiplatelet therapy (DAPT) de-escalation with five alternative DAPT strategies in patients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS) undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI).

DESIGN

We conducted a systematic review and network meta-analysis (NMA). Parallel-arm randomised controlled trials (RCTs) comparing DAPT strategies were included and arms of interest were compared via NMA. Partial ranking of each identified arm and for each investigated endpoint was also performed.

SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS

Adult patients with ACS (≥18 years) undergoing PCI with indications for DAPT.

SEARCH METHODS

A comprehensive search covered several databases (PubMed, Embase, Cochrane Central, MEDLINE, Conference Proceeding Citation Index-Science) from inception to 15 October 2023. Medical subject headings and keywords related to ACS, PCI and DAPT interventions were used. Reference lists of included studies were screened. Clinical trials registers were searched for ongoing or unpublished trials.

INTERVENTIONS

Six strategies were assessed: T1 arm: acetylsalicylic acid (ASA) and prasugrel for 12 months; T2 arm: ASA and low-dose prasugrel for 12 months; T3 arm: ASA and ticagrelor for 12 months; T4 arm: DAPT de-escalation (ASA+P2Y12 inhibitor for 1-3 months, then single antiplatelet therapy with potent P2Y12 inhibitor or DAPT with clopidogrel); T5 arm: ASA and clopidogrel for 12 months; T6 arm: ASA and clopidogrel for 3-6 months.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Primary outcome: Cardiovascular mortality.

SECONDARY OUTCOMES

bleeding events (all, major, minor), stent thrombosis (ST), stroke, myocardial infarction (MI), all-cause mortality, major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE).

RESULTS

23 RCTs (75 064 patients with ACS) were included. No differences in cardiovascular mortality, all-cause death, recurrent MI or MACE were found when the six strategies were compared, although with different levels of certainty of evidence. ASA and clopidogrel for 12 or 3-6 months may result in a large increase of ST risk versus ASA plus full-dose prasugrel (OR 2.00, 95% CI 1.14 to 3.12, and OR 3.42, 95% CI 1.33 to 7.26, respectively; low certainty evidence for both comparisons). DAPT de-escalation probably results in a reduced risk of all bleedings compared with ASA plus full-dose 12-month prasugrel (OR 0.49, 95% CI 0.26 to 0.81, moderate-certainty evidence) and ASA plus 12-month ticagrelor (OR 0.52, 95% CI 0.33 to 0.75), while it may not increase the risk of ST. ASA plus 12-month clopidogrel may reduce all bleedings versus ASA plus full-dose 12-month prasugrel (OR 0.66, 95% CI 0.42 to 0.94, low certainty) and ASA plus 12-month ticagrelor (OR 0.70, 95% CI 0.52 to 0.89).

CONCLUSIONS

DAPT de-escalation and ASA-clopidogrel regimens may reduce bleeding events compared with 12 months ASA and potent P2Y12 inhibitors. 3-6 months or 12-month aspirin-clopidogrel may increase ST risk compared with 12-month aspirin plus potent P2Y12 inhibitors, while DAPT de-escalation probably does not.

Comparative efficacy of seven nonpharmacological interventions on global cognition in older adults with and without mild cognitive impairment: a network meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials

To maintain current cognitive function and access greater cognitive reserves, nonpharmacological interventions may be a viable alternative for older adults with or without cognitive impairment. This study aimed to compare different nonpharmacological interventions for enhancing global cognition, including mind-body exercise, physical exercise, non-invasive brain stimulation, cognitive training intervention (CTI), acutherapy (ACU), meditation, and music therapy, by applying a network meta-analysis (NMA). Sixty-one randomized controlled trials evaluating the efficacy of interventions on global cognition in older adults with or without mild cognitive decline were selected. An NMA was conducted to compare the efficacy of different nonpharmacological interventions. The NMA revealed that mind-body exercise (standardized mean difference, 1.384; 95% confidence interval, 0.777-1.992); ACU (1.283; 0.478-2.088); meditation (0.910; 0.097-1.724); non-invasive brain stimulation (1.242; 0.254-2.230); CTI (1.269; 0.736-1.802); and physical exercise (0.977; 0.212-1.742), showed positive effects compared to passive controls. There were no significant differences between the efficacies of other interventions. Nonpharmacological interventions may potentially enhance and maintain global cognition through various pathways, such as memorizing movements and enhancing brain plasticity by reducing stress in the older adult population. Additional studies are needed to clarify the impact of other variables, including intervention methods or psychological variables.

Blood Purification for Adult Patients With Severe Infection or Sepsis/Septic Shock: A Network Meta-Analysis of Randomized Controlled Trials

OBJECTIVES

This study aimed to conduct a comprehensive and updated systematic review with network meta-analysis (NMA) to assess the outcome benefits of various blood purification modalities for adult patients with severe infection or sepsis.

DATA SOURCES

We conducted a search of PubMed, MEDLINE, clinical trial registries, Cochrane Library, and Embase databases with no language restrictions.

STUDY SELECTION

Only randomized controlled trials (RCTs) were selected.

DATA EXTRACTION

The primary outcome was overall mortality. The secondary outcomes were the length of mechanical ventilation (MV) days and ICU stay, incidence of acute kidney injury (AKI), and kidney replacement therapy requirement.

DATA SYNTHESIS

We included a total of 60 RCTs with 4,595 participants, comparing 16 blood purification modalities with 17 interventions. Polymyxin-B hemoperfusion (relative risk [RR]: 0.70; 95% CI, 0.57-0.86) and plasma exchange (RR: 0.61; 95% CI, 0.42-0.91) were associated with low mortality (very low and low certainty of evidence, respectively). Because of the presence of high clinical heterogeneity and intransitivity, the potential benefit of polymyxin-B hemoperfusion remained inconclusive. The analysis of secondary outcomes was limited by the scarcity of available studies. HA330 with high-volume continuous venovenous hemofiltration (CVVH), HA330, and standard-volume CVVH were associated with shorter ICU stay. HA330 with high-volume CVVH, HA330, and standard-volume CVVH were beneficial in reducing MV days. None of the interventions showed a significant reduction in the incidence of AKI or the need for kidney replacement therapy.

CONCLUSIONS

Our NMA suggests that plasma exchange and polymyxin-B hemoperfusion may provide potential benefits for adult patients with severe infection or sepsis/septic shock when compared with standard care alone, but most comparisons were based on low or very low certainty evidence. The therapeutic effect of polymyxin-B hemoperfusion remains uncertain. Further RCTs are required to identify the specific patient population that may benefit from extracorporeal blood purification.

Efficacy and safety of intranasal agents for the acute treatment of migraine: a systematic review and network meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Intranasal agents may be ideal for the treatment of migraine patients. Many new acute intranasal-specific therapies have been developed, but few of them have been directly compared. The aim of this network meta-analysis (NMA) was to compare the efficacy and safety of various intranasal agents for the treatment of acute migraine in adult patients.

METHODS

The Cochrane Register of Controlled Trials, Embase, and PubMed were searched from inception to 15 August 2023. Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) using intranasal agents (no restrictions on dose, formulation, dosing regimen or timing of the first dose) to treat adult patients with acute migraine were included. The primary efficacy endpoint was pain freedom at 2 h, and the primary safety endpoint was adverse events (AEs). The analysis process followed the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines.

RESULTS

Nineteen studies (21 RCTs, 9738 participants) were included. Compared to the placebo, 5 mg of zolmitriptan using a conventional liquid nasal spray device was the most effective for pain freedom at 2 h [odds ratio (OR): 4.67, 95% confidence interval (CI): 3.43 to 6.43] and 24 h (OR: 5.49, 95% CI: 3.58 to 8.42) among all the interventions. Butorphanol nasal spray 1 mg was the most effective (OR: 8.62, 95% CI: 1.11 to 66.92) for pain freedom at 1 h, but with low-quality evidence. DFN-02 presented the highest freedom from nausea (OR: 4.95, 95% CI: 1.29 to 19.01) and phonophobia (OR: 5.36, 95% CI: 1.67 to 17.22) at 2 h, albeit with lower odds of achieving complete pain freedom. ROX-828 showed the highest improvement in freedom from photophobia at 2 h (OR: 4.03, 95% CI: 1.66 to 9.81). Dihydroergotamine nasal spray was significantly associated with the highest risk of AEs (OR: 9.65, 95% CI: 4.39 to 21.22) and was not recommended for routine use. Zavegepant nasal spray demonstrated the lowest risk of AEs (OR: 2.04, 95% CI: 1.37 to 3.03). The results of sensitivity analyses for the primary endpoints (pain freedom at 2 h and AEs) were generally consistent with those of the base case model.

CONCLUSIONS

Compared with other new intranasal-specific therapies in treating migraine attacks, zolmitriptan nasal spray 5 mg was the most effective agent for pain freedom at 2 h. Zavegepant nasal spray 10 mg had the fewest adverse side effects.

PALM: PATIENT-CENTERED TREATMENT RANKING VIA LARGE-SCALE MULTIVARIATE NETWORK META-ANALYSIS

The growing number of available treatment options has led to urgent needs for reliable answers when choosing the best course of treatment for a patient. As it is often infeasible to compare a large number of treatments in a single randomized controlled trial, multivariate network meta-analyses (NMAs) are used to synthesize evidence from trials of a subset of the treatments, where both efficacy and safety related outcomes are considered simultaneously. However, these large-scale multiple-outcome NMAs have created challenges to existing methods due to the increasing complexity of the unknown correlations between outcomes and treatment comparisons. In this paper, we proposed a new framework for PAtient-centered treatment ranking via Large-scale Multivariate network meta-analysis, termed as PALM, which includes a parsimonious modeling approach, a fast algorithm for parameter estimation and inference, a novel visualization tool for presenting multivariate outcomes, termed as the origami plot, as well as personalized treatment ranking procedures taking into account the individual's considerations on multiple outcomes. In application to an NMA that compares 14 treatment options for labor induction, we provided a comprehensive illustration of the proposed framework and demonstrated its computational efficiency and practicality, and we obtained new insights and evidence to support patient-centered clinical decision making.

Network meta-analysis of the prognosis of curative treatment strategies for recurrent hepatocellular carcinoma after hepatectomy

BACKGROUND

Recurrent hepatocellular carcinoma (rHCC) is a common outcome after curative treatment. Retreatment for rHCC is recommended, but no guidelines exist.

AIM

To compare curative treatments such as repeated hepatectomy (RH), radiofrequency ablation (RFA), transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) and liver transplantation (LT) for patients with rHCC after primary hepatectomy by conducting a network meta-analysis (NMA).

METHODS

From 2011 to 2021, 30 articles involving patients with rHCC after primary liver resection were retrieved for this NMA. The Q test was used to assess heterogeneity among studies, and Egger’s test was used to assess publication bias. The efficacy of rHCC treatment was assessed using disease-free survival (DFS) and overall survival (OS).

RESULTS

From 30 articles, a total of 17, 11, 8, and 12 arms of RH, RFA, TACE, and LT subgroups were collected for analysis. Forest plot analysis revealed that the LT subgroup had a better cumulative DFS and 1-year OS than the RH subgroup, with an odds ratio (OR) of 0.96 (95%CI: 0.31-2.96). However, the RH subgroup had a better 3-year and 5-year OS compared to the LT, RFA, and TACE subgroups. Hierarchic step diagram of different subgroups measured by the Wald test yielded the same results as the forest plot analysis. LT had a better 1-year OS (OR: 1.04, 95%CI: 0.34-03.20), and LT was inferior to RH in 3-year OS (OR: 10.61, 95%CI: 0.21-1.73) and 5-year OS (OR: 0.95, 95%CI: 0.39-2.34). According to the predictive P score evaluation, the LT subgroup had a better DFS, and RH had the best OS. However, meta-regression analysis revealed that LT had a better DFS (P < 0.001) as well as 3-year OS (P = 0.881) and 5-year OS (P = 0.188). The differences in superiority between DFS and OS were due to the different testing methods used.

CONCLUSION

According to this NMA, RH and LT had better DFS and OS for rHCC than RFA and TACE. However, treatment strategies should be determined by the recurrent tumor characteristics, the patient’s general health status, and the care program at each institution.

Comparative efficacy of mepolizumab, benralizumab, and dupilumab in eosinophilic asthma: A Bayesian network meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

The comparative safety and efficacy of the biologics currently approved for asthma are unclear.

OBJECTIVE

We compared the safety and efficacy of mepolizumab, benralizumab, and dupilumab in individuals with severe eosinophilic asthma.

METHODS

We performed a systematic review of peer-reviewed literature published 2000 to 2021. We studied Bayesian network meta-analyses of exacerbation rates, prebronchodilator FEV1, the Asthma Control Questionnaire, and serious adverse events in individuals with eosinophilic asthma.

RESULTS

Eight randomized clinical trials (n = 6461) were identified. We found in individuals with eosinophils ≥300 cells/μL the following: in reducing exacerbation rates compared to placebo: dupilumab (risk ratio [RR], 0.32; 95% credible interval [CI], 0.23 to 0.45), mepolizumab (RR, 0.37; 95% CI, 0.30 to 0.45), and benralizumab (RR, 0.49; 95% CI, 0.43 to 0.55); in improving FEV1: dupilumab (mean difference in milliliters [MD] 230; 95% CI, 160 to 300), benralizumab (MD, 150; 95% CI, 100 to 200), and mepolizumab (MD, 150; 95% CI, 66 to 220); and in reducing Asthma Control Questionnaire scores: mepolizumab (MD, -0.63; 95% CI, -0.81 to -0.45), dupilumab (MD, -0.48; 95% CI, -0.83 to -0.14), and benralizumab (MD, -0.32; 95% CI, -0.43 to -0.21). In individuals with eosinophils 150-299 cells/μL, benralizumab (RR, 0.62; 95% CI, 0.52 to 0.73) and dupilumab (RR, 0.60; 95% CI, 0.38 to 0.95) were associated with lower exacerbation rates; and only benralizumab (MD, 81; 95% CI, 8 to 150) significantly improved FEV1. These differences were minimal compared to clinically important thresholds. For serious adverse events in the overall population, mepolizumab (odds ratio, 0.67; 95% CI, 0.48 to 0.92) and benralizumab (odds ratio, 0.74; 95% CI, 0.59 to 0.93) were associated with lower odds of a serious adverse event, while dupilumab was not different from placebo (odds ratio, 1.0; 95% CI, 0.74 to 1.4).

CONCLUSION

There are minimal differences in the efficacy and safety of mepolizumab, benralizumab, and dupilumab in eosinophilic asthma.

Clinical evidence construction of East Asian herbal medicine for inflammatory pain in rheumatoid arthritis based on integrative data mining approach

BACKGROUND

Rheumatoid arthritis (RA) is a chronic inflammatory disease that leads to a significant social burden. East Asian herbal medicine (EAHM) has long been used to treat RA. Therefore, a systematic study of how EAHM treatments can be developed into new drugs using specific materials is needed.

METHODS

Eleven databases containing literature in English, Korean, Chinese, and Japanese were searched for randomized controlled trials comparing EAHM with conventional medicine (CM). A meta-analysis was performed on the variable data to assess their effects on inflammatory pain. Subsequently, we searched for core materials and combinations of core material-based data mining methods.

RESULTS

A total of 186 trials involving 19,716 patients with RA met the inclusion criteria. According to the meta-analysis, EAHM had a significantly superior effect on continuous pain intensity, tender joint count, and response rate. Patients treated with EAHM had a significantly reduced incidence of adverse events compared with those treated with CM. Based on additional analysis of the EAHM formula data included in this meta-analysis, 21 core materials and five core herbal combinations were identified.

CONCLUSION

EAHM remedies for RA have the adequate potential for use as candidate materials for treating inflammatory pain in RA. The candidate core herbs evaluated in this study act on multiple pathways and are expected to provide pain relief, sustained inflammation suppression, immune regulation, and prevention of joint destruction. It seems worthwhile to conduct follow-up research on drug development using the core materials derived from this review.

Interpreting and assessing confidence in network meta-analysis results: an introduction for clinicians

Purpose

We aimed to provide clinicians with introductory guidance for interpreting and assessing confidence in on Network meta-analysis (NMA) results.

Methods

We reviewed current literature on NMA and summarized key points.

Results

Network meta-analysis (NMA) is a statistical method for comparing the efficacy of three or more interventions simultaneously in a single analysis by synthesizing both direct and indirect evidence across a network of randomized clinical trials. It has become increasingly popular in healthcare, since direct evidence (head-to-head randomized clinical trials) are not always available. NMA methods are categorized as either Bayesian or frequentist, and while the two mostly provide similar results, the two approaches are theoretically different and require different interpretations of the results.

Conclusions

We recommend a careful approach to interpreting NMA results and the validity of an NMA depends on its underlying statistical assumptions and the quality of the evidence used in the NMA.

Answering complex hierarchy questions in network meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Network meta-analysis estimates all relative effects between competing treatments and can produce a treatment hierarchy from the most to the least desirable option according to a health outcome. While about half of the published network meta-analyses present such a hierarchy, it is rarely the case that it is related to a clinically relevant decision question.

METHODS

We first define treatment hierarchy and treatment ranking in a network meta-analysis and suggest a simulation method to estimate the probability of each possible hierarchy to occur. We then propose a stepwise approach to express clinically relevant decision questions as hierarchy questions and quantify the uncertainty of the criteria that constitute them. The steps of the approach are summarized as follows: a) a question of clinical relevance is defined, b) the hierarchies that satisfy the defined question are collected and c) the frequencies of the respective hierarchies are added; the resulted sum expresses the certainty of the defined set of criteria to hold. We then show how the frequencies of all possible hierarchies relate to common ranking metrics.

RESULTS

We exemplify the method and its implementation using two networks. The first is a network of four treatments for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease where the most probable hierarchy has a frequency of 28%. The second is a network of 18 antidepressants, among which Vortioxetine, Bupropion and Escitalopram occupy the first three ranks with frequency 19%.

CONCLUSIONS

The developed method offers a generalised approach of producing treatment hierarchies in network meta-analysis, which moves towards attaching treatment ranking to a clear decision question, relevant to all or a subset of competing treatments.