Identifying Potential Factors Associated with High HIV viral load in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa using Multiple Correspondence Analysis and Random Forest Analysis

Predictors of Viral Suppression among Adults Living with HIV/AIDS in Nigeria: A Retrospective Chart Review

BACKGROUND INFORMATION

Over 1.6 million Nigerians have succumbed to the ravaging scourge of the acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) epidemic since its discovery. Viral suppression (VS) then becomes a critical cost-effective human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) prevention strategy. We assessed the prevalence and predictors of VS.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

This retrospective case file review was conducted among adults (aged ≥18 years) living with HIV/AIDS who accessed care at a tertiary health facility in Northwestern Nigeria between January and December 2021.

RESULTS

One thousand one hundred and twenty HIV/AIDS-eligible patients accessed care during the study. Their age ranged between 20 and 70 years with a mean of 43.83 ± 10.83 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 43.19-44.46). The patients were mostly female (728; 65.0), residing in urban areas (680; 60.7%), self-employed (440; 39.3%), married (712; 63.6%), receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART) for at most 14 years (916; 81.8%), on first-line ART regimen (812; 72.5%), in HIV clinical stage 1 (964; 86.1%), and with a baseline CD4 count of 199 cells/µl (453; 40.4%). The prevalence of VS of 64.3% (720/1120) was recorded in the study. The predictors of VS were disclosure of HIV status (odds ratio [OR] =2.4; 95% CI = 1.503-3.832), absence of opportunistic infections (OR = 2.6; 95% CI = 1.242-5.406), receiving ART for 15-29 years (OR = 2.1; 95% CI = 1.398-3.292), first-line ART regimen (OR = 3.7; 95% CI = 2.618-5.115), and adequate adherence (OR = 4.7; 95% CI = 3.324-6.766).

CONCLUSION

VS was suboptimal among the study cohort with adequate adherence being its strongest predictor.

The role of correspondence analysis in medical research

Correspondence analysis (CA) is a multivariate statistical and visualization technique. CA is extremely useful in analyzing either two- or multi-way contingency tables, representing some degree of correspondence between columns and rows. The CA results are visualized in easy-to-interpret "bi-plots," where the proximity of items (values of categorical variables) represents the degree of association between presented items. In other words, items positioned near each other are more associated than those located farther away. Each bi-plot has two dimensions, named during the analysis. The naming of dimensions adds a qualitative aspect to the analysis. Correspondence analysis may support medical professionals in finding answers to many important questions related to health, wellbeing, quality of life, and similar topics in a simpler but more informal way than by using more complex statistical or machine learning approaches. In that way, it can be used for dimension reduction and data simplification, clustering, classification, feature selection, knowledge extraction, visualization of adverse effects, or pattern detection.

Lightweight federated learning for STIs/HIV prediction

This paper presents a solution that prioritises high privacy protection and improves communication throughput for predicting the risk of sexually transmissible infections/human immunodeficiency virus (STIs/HIV). The approach utilised Federated Learning (FL) to construct a model from multiple clinics and key stakeholders. FL ensured that only models were shared between clinics, minimising the risk of personal information leakage. Additionally, an algorithm was explored on the FL manager side to construct a global model that aligns with the communication status of the system. Our proposed method introduced Random Forest Federated Learning for assessing the risk of STIs/HIV, incorporating a flexible aggregation process that can be adjusted to accommodate the capacious communication system. Experimental results demonstrated the significant potential of a solution for estimating STIs/HIV risk. In comparison with recent studies, our approach yielded superior results in terms of AUC (0.97) and accuracy ( 93 % ). Despite these promising findings, a limitation of the study lies in the experiment for man's data, due to the self-reported nature of the data and sensitive content. which may be subject to participant bias. Future research could check the performance of the proposed framework in partnership with high-risk populations (e.g., men who have sex with men) to provide a more comprehensive understanding of the proposed framework's impact and ultimately aim to improve health outcomes/health service optimisation.

Ethno-demographic disparities in humoral responses to the COVID-19 vaccine among healthcare workers

The COVID-19 pandemic had a profound impact on global health, but rapid vaccine administration resulted in a significant decline in morbidity and mortality rates worldwide. In this study, we sought to explore the temporal changes in the humoral immune response against SARS-CoV-2 healthcare workers (HCWs) in Augusta, GA, USA, and investigate any potential associations with ethno-demographic features. Specifically, we aimed to compare the naturally infected individuals with naïve individuals to understand the immune response dynamics after SARS-CoV-2 vaccination. A total of 290 HCWs were included and assessed prospectively in this study. COVID status was determined using a saliva-based COVID assay. Neutralizing antibody (NAb) levels were quantified using a chemiluminescent immunoassay system, and IgG levels were measured using an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay method. We examined the changes in antibody levels among participants using different statistical tests including logistic regression and multiple correspondence analysis. Our findings revealed a significant decline in NAb and IgG levels at 8-12 months postvaccination. Furthermore, a multivariable analysis indicated that this decline was more pronounced in White HCWs (odds ratio [OR] = 2.1, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.07-4.08, p = 0.02) and IgG (OR = 2.07, 95% CI = 1.04-4.11, p = 0.03) among the whole cohort. Booster doses significantly increased IgG and NAb levels, while a decline in antibody levels was observed in participants without booster doses at 12 months postvaccination. Our results highlight the importance of understanding the dynamics of immune response and the potential influence of demographic factors on waning immunity to SARS-CoV-2. In addition, our findings emphasize the value of booster doses to ensure durable immunity.

Artificial-Intelligence-Based Models Coupled with Correspondence Analysis Visualization on ART—Cases from Gombe State, Nigeria: A Comparative Study

Antiretroviral therapy (ART) is the common hope for HIV/AIDS-treated patients. Total commitments from individuals and the entire community are the major challenges faced during treatment. This study investigated the progress of ART in the Federal Teaching Hospital in Gombe state, Nigeria by using various records of patients receiving treatment in the ART hospital unit. We combined artificial intelligence (AI)-based models and correspondence analysis (CA) techniques to predict and visualize the progress of ART from the beginning to the end. The AI models employed are artificial neural networks (ANNs), adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference systems (ANFISs) and support-vector machines (SVMs) and a classical linear regression model of multiple linear regression (MLR). According to the outcome of this study, ANFIS in both training and testing outperformed the remaining models given the R2 (0.903 and 0.904) and MSE (7.961 and 3.751) values, revealing that any increase in the number of years of taking ART medication will provide HIV/AIDS-treated patients with safer and elongated lives. The contingency results for the CA and the chi-square test did an excellent job of capturing and visualizing the patients on medication, which gave similar results in return, revealing there is a significant association between ART drugs and the age group, while the association between ART drugs and marital status (93.7%) explained a higher percentage of variation compared with the remaining variables.

Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning Based Prediction of Viral Load and CD4 Status of People Living with HIV (PLWH) on Anti-Retroviral Treatment in Gedeo Zone Public Hospitals

Background

Despite the success made in scaling up HIV treatment activities, there remains a tremendous unmet demand for the monitoring of the disease progression and treatment success, which threatens HIV/AIDS treatment and control. This research presented the assessments of viral load and CD4 classification of adults enrolled in ART care using machine learning algorithms.

Methods

We trained, validated, and tested eight machine learning (ML) classifier algorithms with historical data, including demographics, clinical, and laboratory data. Data were extracted from the ART registry database of Yirgacheffe Primary Hospital and Dilla University Referral Hospital. ML classifiers were trained to predict virological failure (viral load >1000 copies/mL) and poor CD4 (CD4 cell count <200 cells/mL). The model predictive performances were evaluated using accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, precision, f1-score, F-beta scores, and AUC.

Results

The mean age of the sample participants was 41.6 years (SD = 10.9). The experimental results showed that XGB classifier ranked as the best algorithm for viral load prediction in terms of sensitivity (97%), f1-score (96%), AUC (0.99), accuracy (96%), followed by RF. The GB classifier exhibited a better predictive capability in predicting participants with a CD4 cell count <200 cells/mL.

Conclusion

In this study, the XGB and RF models had the highest accuracy and outperformed on various evaluation metrics among the models examined for viral load classification. In the prediction of participants CD4, GB model had the highest accuracy.

Longitudinal Study of Therapeutic Adherence in a Cystic Fibrosis Unit: Identifying Potential Factors Associated with Medication Possession Ratio

Cystic fibrosis (CF) is a genetic and multisystemic disease that requires a high therapeutic demand for its control. The aim of this study was to assess therapeutic adherence (TA) to different treatments to study possible clinical consequences and clinical factors influencing adherence. This is an ambispective observational study of 57 patients aged over 18 years with a diagnosis of CF. The assessment of TA was calculated using the Medication Possession Ratio (MPR) index. These data were related to exacerbations and the rate of decline in FEV1 percentage. Compliance was good for all CFTR modulators, azithromycin, aztreonam, and tobramycin in solution for inhalation. The patients with the best compliance were older; they had exacerbations and the greatest deterioration in lung function during this period. The three variables with the highest importance for the compliance of the generated Random Forest (RF) models were age, FEV1%, and use of Ivacaftor/Tezacaftor. This is one of the few studies to assess adherence to CFTR modulators and symptomatic treatment longitudinally. CF patient therapy is expensive, and the assessment of variables with the highest importance for a high MPR, helped by new Machine learning tools, can contribute to defining new efficient TA strategies with higher benefits.

Spatiotemporal Variation and Predictors of Unsuppressed Viral Load among HIV-Positive Men and Women in Rural and Peri-Urban KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa

Unsuppressed HIV viral load is an important marker of sustained HIV transmission. We investigated the prevalence, predictors, and high-risk areas of unsuppressed HIV viral load among HIV-positive men and women. Unsuppressed HIV viral load was defined as viral load of ≥400 copies/mL. Data from the HIV Incidence District Surveillance System (HIPSS), a longitudinal study undertaken between June 2014 to June 2016 among men and women aged 15−49 years in rural and peri-urban KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, were analysed. A Bayesian geoadditive regression model which includes a spatial effect for a small enumeration area was applied using an integrated nested Laplace approximation (INLA) function while accounting for unobserved factors, non-linear effects of selected continuous variables, and spatial autocorrelation. The prevalence of unsuppressed HIV viral load was 46.1% [95% CI: 44.3−47.8]. Predictors of unsuppressed HIV viral load were incomplete high school education, being away from home for more than a month, alcohol consumption, no prior knowledge of HIV status, not ever tested for HIV, not on antiretroviral therapy (ART), on tuberculosis (TB) medication, having two or more sexual partners in the last 12 months, and having a CD4 cell count of <350 cells/μL. A positive non-linear effect of age, household size, and the number of lifetime HIV tests was identified. The higher-risk pattern of unsuppressed HIV viral load occurred in the northwest and northeast of the study area. Identifying predictors of unsuppressed viral load in a localized geographic area and information from spatial risk maps are important for targeted prevention and treatment programs to reduce the transmission of HIV.

Kharsany A, Zewotir T, North D. Spatial Variation and Factors Associated with Unsuppressed HIV Viral Load among Women in an HIV Hyperendemic Area of KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa

New HIV infections among young women remains exceptionally high and to prevent onward transmission, UNAIDS set ambitious treatment targets. This study aimed to determine the prevalence, spatial variation and factors associated with unsuppressed HIV viral load at ≥400 copies per mL. This study analysed data from women aged 15–49 years from the HIV Incidence Provincial Surveillance System (HIPSS) enrolled in two sequential cross-sectional studies undertaken in 2014 and 2015 in rural and peri-urban KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. Bayesian geoadditive model with spatial effect for a small enumeration area was adopted using Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation (INLA) function to analyze the findings. The overall prevalence of unsuppressed HIV viral load was 45.2% in 2014 and 38.1% in 2015. Factors associated with unsuppressed viral load were no prior knowledge of HIV status, had a moderate-to-low perception of acquiring HIV, not on antiretroviral therapy (ART), and having a low CD4 cell count. In 2014, women who ever consumed alcohol and in 2015, ever ran out of money, had two or more lifetime sexual partners, ever tested for tuberculosis, and ever diagnosed with sexually transmitted infection were at higher risk of being virally unsuppressed. The nonlinear effect showed that women aged 15 to 29 years, from smaller households and had fewer number of lifetime HIV tests, were more likely to be virally unsuppressed. High viral load risk areas were the north-east and south-west in 2014, with north and west in 2015. The findings provide guidance on identifying key populations and areas for targeted interventions.