Geriatric scores can predict long-term survival rate after hip fracture surgery

Multidimensional Approach for Predicting 30-Day Mortality in Patients with a Hip Fracture: Development and External Validation of the Rotterdam Hip Fracture Mortality Prediction-30 Days (RHMP-30)

BACKGROUND

The aim of this study was to develop an accurate and clinically relevant prediction model for 30-day mortality following hip fracture surgery.

METHODS

A previous study protocol was utilized as a guideline for data collection and as the standard for the hip fracture treatment. Two prospective, detailed hip fracture databases of 2 different hospitals (hospital A, training cohort; hospital B, testing cohort) were utilized to obtain data. On the basis of the literature, the results of a univariable analysis, and expert opinion, 26 candidate predictors of 30-day mortality were selected. Subsequently, the training of the model, including variable selection, was performed on the training cohort (hospital A) with use of adaptive least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) logistic regression. External validation was performed on the testing cohort (hospital B).

RESULTS

A total of 3,523 patients were analyzed, of whom 302 (8.6%) died within 30 days after surgery. After the LASSO analysis, 7 of the 26 variables were included in the prediction model: age, gender, an American Society of Anesthesiologists score of 4, dementia, albumin level, Katz Index of Independence in Activities of Daily Living total score, and residence in a nursing home. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of the prediction model was 0.789 in the training cohort and 0.775 in the testing cohort. The calibration curve showed good consistency between observed and predicted 30-day mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

The Rotterdam Hip Fracture Mortality Prediction-30 Days (RHMP-30) was developed and externally validated, and showed adequate performance in predicting 30-day mortality following hip fracture surgery. The RHMP-30 will be helpful for shared decision-making with patients regarding hip fracture treatment.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE

Prognostic Level II. See Instructions for Authors for a complete description of levels of evidence.

Risk Factors for 30-Days Mortality After Proximal Femoral Fracture Surgery, a Cohort Study

Purpose

The primary objective of this study was to identify new risk factors and to confirm previously reported risk factors associated with 30-day mortality after hip fracture surgery.

Patients and methods

A prospective hip fracture database was used to obtain data. In total, 3523 patients who underwent hip fracture surgery between 2011 and 2021 were included. Univariable and multivariable logistic regression was used to screen and identify candidate risk factors. Twenty-seven baseline factors and 16 peri-operative factors were included in the univariable analysis and 28 of those factors were included in multivariable analysis.

Results

8.6% of the patients who underwent hip fracture surgery died within 30 days after surgery. Prognostic factors associated with 30-day mortality after hip fracture surgery were as follows: age 90-100 years (OR = 4.7, 95% CI: 1.07-19.98, p = 0.041) and above 100 years (OR = 11.3, 95% CI: 1.28-100.26, p = 0.029), male gender (OR = 2.6, 95% CI: 1.97-3.33, p < 0.001), American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) 3 and ASA 4 (OR = 2.1, 95% CI: 1.44-3.14, p < 0.001), medical history of dementia (OR = 1.7, 95% CI: 1.25-2.36, p = 0.001), decreased albumin level (OR = 0.94, 95% CI: 0.92-0.97, p < 0.001), decreased glomerular filtration rate (GFR) (OR = 0.98, 95% CI: 0.98-0.99, p < 0.001), residential status of nursing home (OR = 2.1, 95% CI: 1.44-2.87, p < 0.001), higher Katz Index of Independence in Activities of Daily Living (KATZ-ADL) score (OR = 1.1, 95% CI: 1.01-1.16, p=0.018) and postoperative pneumonia (OR = 2.4, 95% CI: 1.72-3.38, p < 0.001).

Conclusion

A high mortality rate in patients after acute hip fracture surgery is known. Factors that are associated with an increased mortality are age above 90 years, male gender, ASA 3 and ASA 4, medical history of dementia, decreased albumin, decreased GFR, residential status of nursing home, higher KATZ-ADL score and postoperative pneumonia.

Predictive factors of osteoporotic hip fracture in octogenarians

OBJECTIVE

This study aims to identify the risk factors associated with osteoporotic hip fractures in octogenarians and seeks to refine primary prevention strategies for these fractures.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

We conducted a case-control study involving individuals aged 79 years and older with hip fractures, comparing them to age- and sex-matched controls without a history of hip fractures. We collected epidemiological, clinical, anthropometric, and analytical factors. We evaluated the presence of osteoporosis using bone densitometry. We defined sarcopenia according the European Working Group on Sarcopenia in Older People criteria (EWGSOP2).

RESULTS

Ninety-five patients per group were analyzed, with a mean age of 82 years, of which 74% were women. The multivariate analysis included statistically significant factors found in the univariate analysis (p < 0.05). These factors included the Barthel Index, nutritional assessment using the CONUT tool, folic acid, vitamin D deficiency, presence of previous fractures, loss of visual acuity, bicipital circumference, sarcopenia, and osteoporosis (densitometry in the neck of the femur). The Nutritional state (OR: 0.08 [0.01-0.61]), the folic acid levels (OR 0.32 [0.1-1]), and a loss of visual acuity (OR 33.16 [2.91-377.87]) were the independent risk factors associated with hip fracture.

CONCLUSIONS

The assessment of nutritional status in elderly patients, coupled with a comprehensive geriatric assessment, represents easily reproducible and cost-effective tools. These tools can effectively aid in identifying individuals at risk of hip fractures, thereby contributing to more targeted and efficient preventive measures.

Geriatric nutritional risk index as the prognostic factor in older patients with fragility hip fractures

This study investigated the long-term survival and incidence of secondary fractures after fragility hip fractures. The 5-year survival rate was 62%, and the mortality risk was seen in patients with GNRI < 92. The 5-year incidence of secondary fracture was 22%, which was significantly higher in patients with a BMI < 20.

BACKGROUND

Malnutrition negatively influences the postoperative survival of patients with fragility hip fractures (FHFs); however, little is known about their association over the long term.

OBJECTIVE

This study evaluated the ability of the geriatric nutritional risk index (GNRI) as a risk factor for long-term mortality after FHFs.

METHODS

This study included 623 Japanese patients with FHFs over the age of 60 years. We prospectively collected data on admission and during hospitalization and assessed the patients' conditions after discharge through a questionnaire. We examined the long-term mortality and the incidence of secondary FHFs and assessed the prognostic factors.

RESULTS

The mean observation period was 4.0 years (range 0-7 years). The average age at the time of admission was 82 years (range 60-101 years). The overall survival after FHFs (1 year, 91%; 5 years, 62%) and the incidence of secondary FHFs were high (1 year, 4%; 5 years, 22%). The multivariate Cox proportional hazard analysis revealed the risk factors for mortality as older age (hazard ratio [HR] 1.04), male sex (HR 1.96), lower GNRI score (HR 0.96), comorbidities (malignancy, HR 2.51; ischemic heart disease, HR 2.24; revised Hasegawa dementia scale ≤ 20, HR 1.64), no use of active vitamin D3 on admission (HR 0.46), and a lower Barthel index (BI) (on admission, HR 1.00; at discharge, HR 0.99). The GNRI scores were divided into four risk categories: major risk (GNRI, < 82), moderate risk (82-91), low risk (92-98), and no risk (> 98). Patients at major and moderate risks of GNRI had a significantly lower overall survival rate (p < 0.001). Lower body mass index (BMI) was also identified as a prognostic factor for secondary FHFs (HR 0.88 [p = 0.004]).

CONCLUSIONS

We showed that older age, male sex, a lower GNRI score, comorbidities, and a lower BI are risk factors for mortality following FHFs. GNRI is a novel and simple predictor of long-term survival after FHFs.

The Definition of the Term "Orthogeriatric Infection" for Periprosthetic Joint Infections

Introduction

In the background of the aging population, an increase of geriatric patients with specific age-related co-morbidities has already been seen over the years for proximal femur fractures in orthopaedic surgery as well as other medical disciplines. However, the geriatric aspect has not been well recognized in periprosthetic joint infection (PJI) patients so far. Therefore, this paper seeks to provide an overview on the co-morbidities of PJI patients with respect to the definition of geriatric patients.

Material and methods

In this single-center retrospective study, patients treated between 2007 and 2020 for PJI were included (n = 255). Patients were defined as geriatric according to the consensus definition criteria of the Federal Working Group of Clinical Geriatric Facilities e.V., the German Society for Geriatrics e.V. and the German Society for Gerontology and Geriatrics e.V. based on age (≤70 years), geriatric multimorbidity and the Barthel index (≤30).

Results

Applying the criteria defined 184 of the 255 (72.2%) PJI patients as geriatric infection patients. Regarding geriatric comorbidity, incontinence was most prevalent (38.1%), followed by immobility (25.6%). Comparing the geriatric infection patients with those classified as non-geriatric (n = 71) revealed that geriatric patients had a longer hospital stay and spent more days in the intensive care unit (ICU). Also, the amputation rate and the 5-year mortality rate was significantly increased (n = 15, 8.2% vs n = 1, 1.4%, P = .007 and n = 24, 13.0% vs n = 5, 7.0%, P = .005). The Barthel index showed a significant correlation with mortality (r = -.22, P = .011).

Discussion

We propose to use the term orthogeriatric infection patients in those cases in order to focus treatment not only on the orthopaedic infections but also on the important geriatric aspects.

Conclusion

The inclusion of geriatric physicians into the multidisciplinary team approach for PJI patients might be beneficial.

Determinants of Higher Mortality at Six Months in Patients with Hip Fracture: A Retrospective Study

(1) Background: Hip fracture is a pathology with high mortality, but the lack of a universal adaptation of the factors associated with death makes it difficult to predict risk and implement prevention in this group. This study aimed to identify the factors that determine a higher mortality at six months following hip fracture. (2) Methods: A retrospective longitudinal study, whose study population consisted of patients over 65 years of age. The main variable was mortality at 6 months of fracture. Relevant data related to sociodemographic and clinical variables for subsequent bivariate (χ²) and multivariate analysis were obtained. (3) Results: In all, 665 people participated in the study, 128 of whom died within 6 months of the fracture. The multivariate adjusted analysis demonstrated significant relationships between the main variable and aspects such as institutionalization at discharge (Odds Ratio (OR) = 2.501), a worse overall functional capacity (OR = 2.453) and cognitive capacity (OR = 3.040) at admission, and complications such as heart failure (OR = 5.767) or respiratory infection (OR = 5.308), in addition to the taking of certain drugs and the presence of a greater number of comorbidities. (4) Conclusions: There are certain factors related to higher mortality at six months in patients with hip fracture who are aged 65 years or older.

Predicting life expectancy after geriatric hip fracture: A systematic review

Background

Displaced femoral neck fractures in geriatric patients are typically treated with either hemiarthroplasty or total hip arthroplasty. The choice between hemiarthroplasty and total hip arthroplasty requires a good estimate of the patient’s life expectancy, as the recent HEALTH trial suggests that the benefits of the two operations do not diverge, if at all, until the second year post-operatively. A systematic review was this performed to determine if there sufficient information in the medical literature to estimate a patient’s life expectancy beyond two years and to identify those patient variables affecting survival of that duration.

Methods

Pubmed, Embase, and Cochrane databases were queried for articles reporting survival data for at least two years post-operatively for at least 100 patients, age 65 or greater, treated surgically for an isolated hip fracture. A final set of 43 papers was created. The methods section of all selected papers was then reviewed to determine which variables were collected in the studies and the results section was reviewed to note whether an effect was reported for all collected variables.

Results

There were 43 eligible studies with 25 unique variables identified. Only age, gender, comorbidities, the presence of dementia and fracture type were collected in a majority of studies, and within that, only age and gender were reported in a majority of the results. Most (15/ 25) variables were reported in 5 or fewer of the studies.

Discussion

There are important deficiencies in the literature precluding the evidence-based estimation of 2 year life expectancy. Because the ostensible advantages of total hip arthroplasty are reaped only by those who survive two years or more, there is a need for additional data collection, analysis and reporting regarding survival after geriatric hip fracture.

Prognostic value of orthogeriatric assessment parameters on mortality: a 2-year follow-up

Introduction

Since the arise of orthogeriatric co-management patients’ outcome and survival has improved. There are several assessment parameters that screen the precondition of orthogeriatric patients including mobility, activities of daily living, comorbidities, place of residence and need for care just to name a few. In a 2-year follow-up on an orthogeriatric co-managed ward the fracture-independent predictive value of typical assessment parameters and comorbidities on the associated mortality was examined.

Methods

All patients treated on an orthogeriatric co-managed ward from February 2014 to January 2015 were included. No fracture entity was preferred. Emphasis was set on following parameters: age, gender, Parker-Mobility Score (PMS), Barthel Index (BI), Charlson-Comorbidity Index (CCI), dementia, depression, sarcopenia, frequent falling, length of stay (LOS), care level (CL) and place of residence (POR). In a 2-year follow-up the patients’ death rates were acquired. SPSS (IBM Corp., Armonk, New York, USA) and Cox regression was used to univariately analyze the expression of the mentioned parameters and mortality course over 2 years from discharge. In a multivariate analysis intercorrelations and independent relationships were examined.

Results

A follow-up rate of 79.6% by assessing 661 patients was achieved. In the univariate analysis linear inverse correlation between PMS and BI and mortality and a linear positive correlation between CCI and higher mortality were observed. There was also a significant relationship between lower survival and age, dementia, sarcopenia, frequent falling, higher institutionalized place of residence and higher CL. No univariate correlation between 2-year mortality and gender, depression and LOS was found. In the multivariate Cox regression, the only independent risk factors remaining were lower PMS (HR: 1.81; 95%CI: 1.373–2.397), lower BI (HR: 1.64; 95%CI: 1.180–2.290) and higher age per year (HR: 1.04; 95%CI: 1.004–1.067).

Conclusion

Age, PMS, BI, CCI, preexisting dementia, sarcopenia, frequent falling, POR and CL are univariate predictors of survival in the orthogeriatric context. An independency could only be found for PMS, BI and age in our multivariate model. This underlines the importance of preexisting mobility and capability of self-support for the patient’s outcome in terms of survival.

Functional Status Geriatric Scores: Single-Handed Tools for 30-Day Mortality Risk After Hip Fracture

Background

The 30-day mortality rate after hip fracture surgery has been considered as an indirect indicator of the quality of care. This work aims to appraise the Barthel Index, Katz Index, Lawton-Brody Index, and Physical Red Cross Scale registered in the Comprehensive Geriatric Assessment at admission on the of 30-day death probability after hip fracture surgery.

Methods

Prospective study including 899 hip fracture patients over 65. Bed-ridden, non-surgically treated patients, and high energy trauma or tumoral etiology fractures were excluded. Variables distribution were assessed by χ², U-Mann Whitney and we performed binary logistic regression and equal tailed Jeffreys 95% CI for risk assessment. P<0.05 was considered statistically significant.

Results

We noted a 30-day mortality rate of 5.9%. We related Barthel Index (OR=0.986 [0.975–0.996], p=0.010), Katz Index (OR=1.254 [1.089–1.444], p=0.002), Lawton-Brody Index (OR=0.885 [0.788–0.992], p=0.037), and Physical Red Cross Scale (OR=1.483 [1.094–2.011], p=0.011) with the 30-day mortality of patients after hip fracture surgery. We also validated the Barthel Index inflection point (0–55) (OR_BI(0–55)=2.428 [1.379–4.275], p=0.002) and Katz Index inflection point (A-B) (OR_KI(A-B)=0.493 [0.273–0.891], p=0.019) for the assessment of the highest risked patients.

Conclusion

The geriatric functional status scores would be useful multifunctional and standalone tools in the assessment of hip fracture patients as singly predictors of 30-day mortality.

Predictive validity of the functional capacity of the CUPAX questionnaire in older adults with hip fracture

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Osteoporotic hip fracture is a relevant pathology due to its prevalence and social and health impact. The aim of this study is to explore the predictive validity of the CUPAX questionnaire on mortality, place of residence and post-fracture functionality.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Prospective observational study. Two hundred and six patients older than 65 years were included, admitted after a hip fracture. The CUPAX questionnaire score was collected before fracture and one year later, and the place of residence and survival at hospital discharge, and after 6 and 12 months. The statistical analysis was carried out with the SAS® 9.4 and Stata® 13.1 programmes.

RESULTS

The median age of the sample was 87.0 years (80.1% women). The in-hospital and one-year mortality rate were 5.8% and 19.1%, respectively. Most of the patients were admitted from home (71.4%), and the most frequent discharge destination was a social health centre (48.2%). The percentage of retention of previous functional level in the total sample was 50%, being higher in the younger patients. The area under the curve ROC for mortality one year later was .697 (95% CI .626-.760) and .659 (95% CI .576-.741) for the discharge destination of patients admitted from home. Evaluation of functional retention one year after the fracture, identified three groups of patients based on the pre-fracture CUPAX value.

CONCLUSIONS

These findings support the clinical utility of the CUPAX questionnaire as a predictive functional tool in elderly patients with hip fracture.

Oldest old hip fracture patients: centenarians as the lowest complexity patients

BACKGROUND

Hip fracture leads to an increase in mortality and deterioration in the quality of life. The increase in life expectancy results in an increase in the number of oldest old patients.

AIMS

To analyze the characteristics of centenarian hip fracture patients and compare them with younger hip fracture patients.

METHODS

Retrospective study, including 176 patients (48 centenarians, 65 nonagenarians and 63 octogenarians) undergoing surgery after hip from 2009 to 2018 and followed for 1-year survival. Qualitative variables were compared by Chi-square test and quantitative variables, by Kruskal-Wallis test. Survival analysis was performed by Kaplan-Meier test and statistical differences were assessed by log-rank test. p value < 0.05 was considered statistically significant.

RESULTS

Centenarians showed the lowest Charlson index (p = 0.001), cognitive impairment (p < 0.001), and daily drug intake (p = 0.034). The in-hospital, 30-day and 1-year mortality rates did not show statistical significant differences. The 1-year survival analysis showed that patients died in order of age (p = 0.045). No differences were found regarding readmissions.

DISCUSSION

Hip fracture incidence in centenarians is increasing. Our study states the lowest complexity for centenarians. Hip fracture mortality rates have been linked to patients' age. In-hospital mortality rate has been reduced, and for the 30-day and 1-year mortality rates, we noted that mortality follows a pattern clearly related to age.

CONCLUSIONS

Centenarians showed the lowest comorbidity and complexity. Readmissions before 1 year, mortality rates at discharge, 30-day and 1-year follow-up were not significantly different, but 1-year survival analysis showed that patients are dying as they are ageing.

Preoperative simplified geriatric assessment in planned hip and knee arthroplasty

INTRODUCTION

Hip and knee arthroplasties are the most common planned orthopedic surgical procedures in older persons. It would be useful to identify frailties before surgery to improve the outcome of older patients.

PURPOSE

The objective of this work was to identify the criteria of a simplified comprehensive geriatric assessment (mini-CGA) that were associated with unplanned hospital readmission and postoperative complications within 3 months after the planned hip and/or knee arthroplasty in patients ≥ 65 years.

METHODS

This prospective study was carried out in the orthopedic department of Marseille University Hospital from January to May 2019. A mini-CGA was performed preoperatively.

RESULTS

One hundred four patients were included in the study. The rate of early readmission within 3 months after surgery was 12.5% and the rate of postoperative complications was 40.4%. In multivariate analysis, dependence in the activities of daily living (ADL ≤ 5) was the only factor associated with unplanned readmission (aOR = 9.9, 95% CI 1.9-50.8), and living alone was the only factor associated with postoperative complications (aOR = 3.2, 95% CI 1.2-8.8).

CONCLUSIONS

We found that the ADL score was associated with the risk of unplanned readmission in older patients undergoing planned arthroplasty, and that living alone was associated with postoperative complications. A preoperative mini-CGA appears essential to limit postoperative morbidity.