Mass campaigns combining antimalarial drugs and anti-infective vaccines as seasonal interventions for malaria control, elimination and prevention of resurgence: a modelling study

Malaria vaccines: a new era of prevention and control

Malaria killed over 600,000 people in 2022, a death toll that has not improved since 2015. Additionally, parasites and mosquitoes resistant to existing interventions are spreading across Africa and other regions. Vaccines offer hope to reduce the mortality burden: the first licensed malaria vaccines, RTS,S and R21, will be widely deployed in 2024 and should substantially reduce childhood deaths. In this Review, we provide an overview of the malaria problem and the Plasmodium parasite, then describe the RTS,S and R21 vaccines (the first vaccines for any human parasitic disease), summarizing their benefits and limitations. We explore next-generation vaccines designed using new knowledge of malaria pathogenesis and protective immunity, which incorporate antigens and platforms to elicit effective immune responses against different parasite stages in human or mosquito hosts. We describe a decision-making process that prioritizes malaria vaccine candidates for development in a resource-constrained environment. Future vaccines might improve upon the protective efficacy of RTS,S or R21 for children, or address the wider malaria scourge by preventing pregnancy malaria, reducing the burden of Plasmodium vivax or accelerating malaria elimination.

Modeling pediatric antibiotic use in an area of declining malaria prevalence

In malaria-endemic areas of Sub-Saharan Africa, overlap of clinical symptoms between malarial and non-malarial febrile illnesses can lead to empiric use of antibiotics among children. Our study aimed to illustrate the potential impact of decreasing malaria prevalence from malaria control efforts on antibiotic use. We constructed a probabilistic decision tree model representing antibiotic prescription in febrile children < 5 years. This model was used to predict change in absolute antibiotic use compared to baseline under levels of decreasing malaria prevalence. Model parameters were based on data from a hospital study in Ghana and validated via literature review. The baseline prevalence of malaria diagnoses was 52% among all hospitalized children. For our main results, we reported outcomes for a scenario representing a 50% decrease in malaria prevalence. Compared to baseline, absolute antibiotic prescription decreased from a baseline of 639 doses (95% CI 574-694) to 575 (95% CI 502-638). This reflected a 10% (95% CI 7%-13%) decrease in absolute antibiotic use. Our findings demonstrate that effective malaria control can reduce pediatric antibiotic use. However, until substantial progress is made in developing accurate diagnostics for non-malarial febrile illnesses, further reductions in antibiotic use will remain a challenge.

Seasonal malaria chemoprevention in Africa and China's upgraded role as a contributor: a scoping review

BACKGROUND

Children under five are the vulnerable population most at risk of being infected with Plasmodium parasites, especially in the Sahel region. Seasonal malaria chemoprevention (SMC) recommended by World Health Organization (WHO), has proven to be a highly effective intervention to prevent malaria. Given more deaths reported during the COVID-19 pandemic than in previous years due to the disruptions to essential medical services, it is, therefore, necessary to seek a more coordinated and integrated approach to increasing the pace, coverage and resilience of SMC. Towards this end, fully leverage the resources of major players in the global fight against malaria, such as China could accelerate the SMC process in Africa.

METHODS

We searched PubMed, MEDLINE, Web of Science, and Embase for research articles and the Institutional Repository for Information Sharing of WHO for reports on SMC. We used gap analysis to investigate the challenges and gaps of SMC since COVID-19. Through the above methods to explore China's prospective contribution to SMC.

RESULTS

A total of 68 research articles and reports were found. Through gap analysis, we found that despite the delays in the SMC campaign, 11.8 million children received SMC in 2020. However, there remained some challenges: (1) a shortage of fully covered monthly courses; (2) lack of adherence to the second and third doses of amodiaquine; (3) four courses of SMC are not sufficient to cover the entire malaria transmission season in areas where the peak transmission lasts longer; (4) additional interventions are needed to consolidate SMC efforts. China was certified malaria-free by WHO in 2021, and its experience and expertise in malaria elimination can be shared with high-burden countries. With the potential to join the multilateral cooperation in SMC, including the supply of quality-assured health commodities, know-how transfer and experience sharing, China is expected to contribute to the ongoing scale-up of SMC.

CONCLUSIONS

A combination of necessary preventive and curative activities may prove beneficial both for targeted populations and for health system strengthening in the long run. More actions are entailed to promote the partnership and China can be one of the main contributors with various roles.

Malaria therapeutics: are we close enough?

Malaria is a vector-borne parasitic disease caused by the apicomplexan protozoan parasite Plasmodium. Malaria is a significant health problem and the leading cause of socioeconomic losses in developing countries. WHO approved several antimalarials in the last 2 decades, but the growing resistance against the available drugs has worsened the scenario. Drug resistance and diversity among Plasmodium strains hinder the path of eradicating malaria leading to the use of new technologies and strategies to develop effective vaccines and drugs. A timely and accurate diagnosis is crucial for any disease, including malaria. The available diagnostic methods for malaria include microscopy, RDT, PCR, and non-invasive diagnosis. Recently, there have been several developments in detecting malaria, with improvements leading to achieving an accurate, quick, cost-effective, and non-invasive diagnostic tool for malaria. Several vaccine candidates with new methods and antigens are under investigation and moving forward to be considered for clinical trials. This article concisely reviews basic malaria biology, the parasite's life cycle, approved drugs, vaccine candidates, and available diagnostic approaches. It emphasizes new avenues of therapeutics for malaria.

Seasonal use case for the RTS,S/AS01 malaria vaccine: a mathematical modelling study

BACKGROUND

A 2021 clinical trial of seasonal RTS,S/AS01_E (RTS,S) vaccination showed that vaccination was non-inferior to seasonal malaria chemoprevention (SMC) in preventing clinical malaria. The combination of these two interventions provided significant additional protection against clinical and severe malaria outcomes. Projections of the effect of this novel approach to RTS,S vaccination in seasonal transmission settings for extended timeframes and across a range of epidemiological settings are needed to inform policy recommendations.

METHODS

We used a mathematical, individual-based model of malaria transmission that was fitted to data on the relationship between entomological inoculation rate and parasite prevalence, clinical disease, severe disease, and deaths from multiple sites across Africa. The model was validated with results from a phase 3b trial assessing the effect of SV-RTS,S in Mali and Burkina Faso. We developed three intervention efficacy models with varying degrees and durations of protection for our population-level modelling analysis to assess the potential effect of an RTS,S vaccination schedule based on age (doses were delivered to children aged 6 months, 7·5 months, and 9 months for the first three doses, and at 27 months of age for the fourth dose) or season (children aged 5-17 months at the time of first vaccination received the first three doses in the 3 months preceding the transmission season, with any subsequent doses up to five doses delivered annually) in seasonal transmission settings both in the absence and presence of SMC with sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine plus amodiaquine. This is modelled as a full therapeutic course delivered every month for four or five months of the peak in transmission season. Estimates of cases and deaths averted in a population of 100 000 children aged 0-5 years were calculated over a 15-year time period for a range of levels of malaria transmission intensity (Plasmodium falciparum parasite prevalence in children aged 2-10 years between 10% and 65%) and over two west Africa seasonality archetypes.

FINDINGS

Seasonally targeting RTS,S resulted in greater absolute reductions in malaria cases and deaths compared with an age-based strategy, averting an additional 14 000-47 000 cases per 100 000 children aged 5 years and younger over 15 years, dependent on seasonality and transmission intensity. We predicted that adding seasonally targeted RTS,S to SMC would reduce clinical incidence by up to an additional 42 000-67 000 cases per 100 000 children aged 5 years and younger over 15 years compared with SMC alone. Transmission season duration was a key determinant of intervention effect, with the advantage of adding RTS,S to SMC predicted to be smaller with shorter transmission seasons.

INTERPRETATION

RTS,S vaccination in seasonal settings could be a valuable additional tool to existing interventions, with seasonal delivery maximising the effect relative to an age-based approach. Decisions surrounding deployment strategies of RTS,S in such settings will need to consider the local and regional variations in seasonality, current rates of other interventions, and potential achievable RTS,S coverage.

FUNDING

UK Medical Research Council, UK Foreign Commonwealth & Development Office, The Wellcome Trust, and The Royal society.

Plasmodium falciparum resistance to artemisinin-based combination therapies

Multidrug-resistant Plasmodium falciparum parasites are a major threat to public health in intertropical regions. Understanding the mechanistic basis, origins, and spread of resistance can inform strategies to mitigate its impact and reduce the global burden of malaria. The recent emergence in Africa of partial resistance to artemisinins, the core component of first-line combination therapies, is particularly concerning. Here, we review recent advances in elucidating the mechanistic basis of artemisinin resistance, driven primarily by point mutations in P. falciparum Kelch13, a key regulator of hemoglobin endocytosis and parasite response to artemisinin-induced stress. We also review resistance to partner drugs, including piperaquine and mefloquine, highlighting a key role for plasmepsins 2/3 and the drug and solute transporters P. falciparum chloroquine-resistance transporter and P. falciparum multidrug-resistance protein-1.

Sub-national tailoring of malaria interventions in Mainland Tanzania: simulation of the impact of strata-specific intervention combinations using modelling

Background

To accelerate progress against malaria in high burden countries, a strategic reorientation of resources at the sub-national level is needed. This paper describes how mathematical modelling was used in mainland Tanzania to support the strategic revision that followed the mid-term review of the 2015–2020 national malaria strategic plan (NMSP) and the epidemiological risk stratification at the council level in 2018.

Methods

Intervention mixes, selected by the National Malaria Control Programme, were simulated for each malaria risk strata per council. Intervention mixes included combinations of insecticide-treated bed nets (ITN), indoor residual spraying, larval source management, and intermittent preventive therapies for school children (IPTsc). Effective case management was either based on estimates from the malaria indicator survey in 2016 or set to a hypothetical target of 85%. A previously calibrated mathematical model in OpenMalaria was used to compare intervention impact predictions for prevalence and incidence between 2016 and 2020, or 2022.

Results

For each malaria risk stratum four to ten intervention mixes were explored. In the low-risk and urban strata, the scenario without a ITN mass campaign in 2019, predicted high increase in prevalence by 2020 and 2022, while in the very-low strata the target prevalence of less than 1% was maintained at low pre-intervention transmission intensity and high case management. In the moderate and high strata, IPTsc in addition to existing vector control was predicted to reduce the incidence by an additional 15% and prevalence by 22%. In the high-risk strata, all interventions together reached a maximum reduction of 76%, with around 70% of that reduction attributable to high case management and ITNs. Overall, the simulated revised NMSP was predicted to achieve a slightly lower prevalence in 2020 compared to the 2015–2020 NMSP (5.3% vs 6.3%).

Conclusion

Modelling supported the choice of intervention per malaria risk strata by providing impact comparisons of various alternative intervention mixes to address specific questions relevant to the country. The use of a council-calibrated model, that reproduces local malaria trends, represents a useful tool for compiling available evidence into a single analytical platform, that complement other evidence, to aid national programmes with decision-making processes.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12936-022-04099-5.

Insights from modelling malaria vaccines for policy decisions: the focus on RTS,S

Mathematical models are increasingly used to inform decisions throughout product development pathways from pre-clinical studies to country implementation of novel health interventions. This review illustrates the utility of simulation approaches by reviewing the literature on malaria vaccine modelling, with a focus on its link to the development of policy guidance for the first licensed product, RTS,S/AS01. The main contributions of modelling studies have been in inferring the mechanism of action and efficacy profile of RTS,S; to predicting the public health impact; and economic modelling mainly comprising cost-effectiveness analysis. The value of both product-specific and generic modelling of vaccines is highlighted.

Circumsporozoite Surface Protein-based malaria vaccines: a review

Malaria represents a serious public health problem, presenting with high rates of incidence, morbidity and mortality in tropical and subtropical regions of the world. According to the World Health Organization, in 2018 there were 228 million cases and 405 thousand deaths caused by this disease in the world, affecting mainly children and pregnant women in Africa. Despite the programs carried out to control this disease, drug resistance and invertebrate vector resistance to insecticides have generated difficulties. An efficient vaccine against malaria would be a strategy with a high impact on the eradication and control of this disease. Researches aimed at developing vaccines have focused on antigens of high importance for the survival of the parasite such as the Circumsporozoite Surface Protein, involved in the pre-erythrocytic cycle during parasites invasion in hepatocytes. Currently, RTS’S is the most promising vaccine for malaria and was constructed using CSP; its performance was evaluated using two types of adjuvants: AS01 and AS02. The purpose of this review was to provide a bibliographic survey of historical researches that led to the development of RTS’S and its performance analysis over the decade. The search for new adjuvants to be associated with this antigen seems to be a way to obtain higher percentages of protection for a future malaria vaccine.