Efficacy of the quick sequential organ failure assessment for predicting clinical outcomes among community-acquired pneumonia patients presenting in the emergency department

Performance of point-of-care severity scores to predict prognosis in patients admitted through the emergency department with COVID-19

BACKGROUND

Identifying COVID-19 patients at the highest risk of poor outcomes is critical in emergency department (ED) presentation. Sepsis risk stratification scores can be calculated quickly for COVID-19 patients but have not been evaluated in a large cohort.

OBJECTIVE

To determine whether well-known risk scores can predict poor outcomes among hospitalized COVID-19 patients.

DESIGNS, SETTINGS, AND PARTICIPANTS

A retrospective cohort study of adults presenting with COVID-19 to 156 Hospital Corporation of America (HCA) Healthcare EDs, March 2, 2020, to February 11, 2021.

INTERVENTION

Quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (qSOFA), Shock Index, National Early Warning System-2 (NEWS2), and quick COVID-19 Severity Index (qCSI) at presentation.

MAIN OUTCOME AND MEASURES

The primary outcome was in-hospital mortality. Secondary outcomes included intensive care unit (ICU) admission, mechanical ventilation, and vasopressors receipt. Patients scored positive with qSOFA ≥ 2, Shock Index > 0.7, NEWS2 ≥ 5, and qCSI ≥ 4. Test characteristics and area under the receiver operating characteristics curves (AUROCs) were calculated.

RESULTS

We identified 90,376 patients with community-acquired COVID-19 (mean age 64.3 years, 46.8% female). 17.2% of patients died in-hospital, 28.6% went to the ICU, 13.7% received mechanical ventilation, and 13.6% received vasopressors. There were 3.8% qSOFA-positive, 45.1% Shock Index-positive, 49.8% NEWS2-positive, and 37.6% qCSI-positive at ED-triage. NEWS2 exhibited the highest AUROC for in-hospital mortality (0.593, confidence interval [CI]: 0.588-0.597), ICU admission (0.602, CI: 0.599-0.606), mechanical ventilation (0.614, CI: 0.610-0.619), and vasopressor receipt (0.600, CI: 0.595-0.604).

CONCLUSIONS

Sepsis severity scores at presentation have low discriminative power to predict outcomes in COVID-19 patients and are not reliable for clinical use. Severity scores should be developed using features that accurately predict poor outcomes among COVID-19 patients to develop more effective risk-based triage.

Development and validation of a survival prediction model in elder patients with community-acquired pneumonia: a MIMIC-population-based study

BACKGROUND

To develop a prediction model predicting in-hospital mortality of elder patients with community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU).

METHODS

In this cohort study, data of 619 patients with CAP aged ≥ 65 years were obtained from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care III (MIMIC III) 2001-2012 database. To establish the robustness of predictor variables, the sample dataset was randomly partitioned into a training set group and a testing set group (ratio: 6.5:3.5). The predictive factors were evaluated using multivariable logistic regression, and then a prediction model was constructed. The prediction model was compared with the widely used assessments: Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA), Pneumonia Severity Index (PSI), systolic blood pressure, oxygenation, age and respiratory rate (SOAR), CURB-65 scores using positive predictive value (PPV), negative predictive value (NPV), accuracy (ACC), area under the curve (AUC) and 95% confidence interval (CI). The decision curve analysis (DCA) was used to assess the net benefit of the prediction model. Subgroup analysis based on the pathogen was developed.

RESULTS

Among 402 patients in the training set, 90 (24.63%) elderly CAP patients suffered from 30-day in-hospital mortality, with the median follow-up being 8 days. Hemoglobin/platelets ratio, age, respiratory rate, international normalized ratio, ventilation use, vasopressor use, red cell distribution width/blood urea nitrogen ratio, and Glasgow coma scales were identified as the predictive factors that affect the 30-day in-hospital mortality. The AUC values of the prediction model, the SOFA, SOAR, PSI and CURB-65 scores, were 0.751 (95% CI 0.749-0.752), 0.672 (95% CI 0.670-0.674), 0.607 (95% CI 0.605-0.609), 0.538 (95% CI 0.536-0.540), and 0.645 (95% CI 0.643-0.646), respectively. DCA result demonstrated that the prediction model could provide greater clinical net benefits to CAP patients admitted to the ICU. Concerning the pathogen, the prediction model also reported better predictive performance.

CONCLUSION

Our prediction model could predict the 30-day hospital mortality in elder patients with CAP and guide clinicians to identify the high-risk population.

The Impact of Risk Factors on Treatment Outcomes of Nosocomial Pneumonia Due to Gram-Negative Bacteria in the Intensive Care Unit

Introduction

Nosocomial pneumonia is a common infection associated with high mortality in hospitalized patients. Nosocomial pneumonia, caused by gram-negative bacteria, often occurs in the elderly and patients with co-morbid diseases.

Methods

Original research using a prospective cross-sectional design was conducted on 281 patients in an intensive care unit setting with nosocomial pneumonia between July 2015 and July 2019. For each nosocomial pneumonia case, data regarding comorbidities, risk factors, patient characteristics, Charlson comorbidity index (CCI), Systemic Inflammatory Response Syndrome (SIRS), and quick Sepsis-Related Organ Failure Assessment (qSOFA) points and treatment outcomes were collected. Data were analyzed by SPSS 22.0.

Results

Nosocomial pneumonia due to gram-negative bacteria occurred in patients with neurological disorders (34.87%), heart diseases (16.37%), chronic renal failure (7.12%), and post-surgery (10.68%). Worse outcomes attributed to nosocomial pneumonia were high at 75.8%. Mechanical ventilation, change of antibiotics, and CCI ≥ 3 and qSOFA ≥ 2 were significantly negative prognostic factors (p < 0.05) on outcomes of nosocomial pneumonia. There was no difference in treatment effects between gender, age, time of onset pneumonia, SIRS score (p > 0.05). The pathogens were significant factors that influence treatment effects, but they weren't independent risk factors for poor outcomes (p = 0.823).

Conclusions

Patients with nosocomial pneumonia hospitalized in intensive care units are usually associated with many underlying diseases, including neurological diseases. Mechanical ventilation, a change in antibiotics, CCI ≥ 3, and qSOFA ≥ 2 are also associated with a worse prognosis of nosocomial pneumonia. CCI and qSOFA might be used in predicting the outcome of nosocomial pneumonia.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s41030-021-00175-4.

Severity Scores in COVID-19 Pneumonia: a Multicenter, Retrospective, Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

Identification of patients on admission to hospital with coronavirus infectious disease 2019 (COVID-19) pneumonia who can develop poor outcomes has not yet been comprehensively assessed.

OBJECTIVE

To compare severity scores used for community-acquired pneumonia to identify high-risk patients with COVID-19 pneumonia.

DESIGN

PSI, CURB-65, qSOFA, and MuLBSTA, a new score for viral pneumonia, were calculated on admission to hospital to identify high-risk patients for in-hospital mortality, admission to an intensive care unit (ICU), or use of mechanical ventilation. Area under receiver operating characteristics curve (AUROC), sensitivity, and specificity for each score were determined and AUROC was compared among them.

PARTICIPANTS

Patients with COVID-19 pneumonia included in the SEMI-COVID-19 Network.

KEY RESULTS

We examined 10,238 patients with COVID-19. Mean age of patients was 66.6 years and 57.9% were males. The most common comorbidities were as follows: hypertension (49.2%), diabetes (18.8%), and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (12.8%). Acute respiratory distress syndrome (34.7%) and acute kidney injury (13.9%) were the most common complications. In-hospital mortality was 20.9%. PSI and CURB-65 showed the highest AUROC (0.835 and 0.825, respectively). qSOFA and MuLBSTA had a lower AUROC (0.728 and 0.715, respectively). qSOFA was the most specific score (specificity 95.7%) albeit its sensitivity was only 26.2%. PSI had the highest sensitivity (84.1%) and a specificity of 72.2%.

CONCLUSIONS

PSI and CURB-65, specific severity scores for pneumonia, were better than qSOFA and MuLBSTA at predicting mortality in patients with COVID-19 pneumonia. Additionally, qSOFA, the simplest score to perform, was the most specific albeit the least sensitive.

Triage protocol for allocation of critical health resources during Covid-19 pandemic and public health emergencies. A narrative review

Background and aim of the work.

Triage during the Covid-19 pandemic can impose difficult allocation decisions when demand for mechanical ventilation or intensive care beds greatly exceeds available resources. Triage criteria should be objective, ethical, transparent, applied equitably and publically disclosed. The aim of this review is to describe the triage tools and process for critical care resources in a pandemic health emergency.

Methods.

A narrative review was conducted of the literature on five electronic databases, namely PubMed, CINHAL, Web of Science, Cochrane and Embase, searching for studies published from January 2006 to July 2020.

Results.

The results describe different triage tools. A gold standard of triage does not exist for the adult or paediatric population. Using probability of short-term survival as the sole allocation principle is problematic. In general, each triage protocol should be applied with a specific ethical justification, including transparency, duty to care, duty to steward resources, duty to plan, and distributive justice.

Conclusions.

Clinical triage decisions based on clinical judgment alone are prone to inconsistent application by triage officers in a pandemic. An ethical framework can inform decision-making and improve accountability. It remains difficult to connect clinical criteria and ethical criteria, because of the models on offer for health services. (www.actabiomedica.it)

Updates on community acquired pneumonia management in the ICU

While the world is grappling with the consequences of a global pandemic related to SARS-CoV-2 causing severe pneumonia, available evidence points to bacterial infection with Streptococcus pneumoniae as the most common cause of severe community acquired pneumonia (SCAP). Rapid diagnostics and molecular testing have improved the identification of co-existent pathogens. However, mortality in patients admitted to ICU remains staggeringly high.

The American Thoracic Society and Infectious Diseases Society of America have updated CAP guidelines to help streamline disease management. The common theme is use of timely, appropriate and adequate antibiotic coverage to decrease mortality and avoid drug resistance. Novel antibiotics have been studied for CAP and extend the choice of therapy, particularly for those who are intolerant of, or not responding to standard treatment, including those who harbor drug resistant pathogens. In this review, we focus on the risk factors, microbiology, site of care decisions and treatment of patients with SCAP.