COVID-19 hospitalizations in five California hospitals: a retrospective cohort study

Technology-enabled virtual ward for COVID management of the elderly and immunocompromised in Singapore: a descriptive cohort

BACKGROUND

To address the hospital bed demand for Delta and Omicron surges in Singapore, the National University Health System (NUHS) developed a COVID Virtual Ward to relieve bed pressures on its three acute hospitals-National University Hospital, Ng Teng Fong General Hospital, Alexandra Hospital. To serve a multilingual population, the COVID Virtual Ward featuring protocolized teleconsultation of high-risk patients, use of a vital signs chatbot, supplemented by home visits where necessary. This study aims to evaluate the safety, outcomes and utilisation of the Virtual Ward as a scalable response to COVID-19 surges.

METHODS

This is a retrospective cohort study of all patients admitted to the COVID Virtual Ward between 23 September to 9 November 2021. Patients were defined as "early discharge" if they were referred from inpatient COVID-19 wards and "admission avoidance" if they were referred directly from primary care or emergency services. Patient demographics, utilisation measures and clinical outcomes were extracted from the electronic health record system. The primary outcomes were escalation to hospital and mortality. Use of the vital signs chatbot was evaluated by examining compliance levels, need for automated reminders and alerts triggered. Patient experience was evaluated using data extracted from a quality improvement feedback form.

RESULTS

238 patients were admitted to the COVID Virtual Ward from 23 September to 9 November, of whom 42% were male, 67.6% of Chinese ethnicity. 43.7% were over the age of 70, 20.5% were immunocompromised, and 36.6% were not fully vaccinated. 17.2% of patients were escalated to hospital and 2.1% of patients died. Patients who were escalated to hospital were more likely to be immunocompromised or to have a higher ISARIC 4C-Mortality Score. There were no missed deteriorations. All patients received teleconsults (median of 5 teleconsults per patient, IQR 3-7). 21.4% of patients received home visits. 77.7% of patients engaged with the vital signs chatbot, with a compliance rate of 84%. All patients would recommend the programme to others in their situation.

CONCLUSIONS

Virtual Wards are a scalable, safe and patient-centered strategy to care for high risk COVID-19 patients at home.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

NA.

Incidence, Risk Factors, and Outcomes of COVID-19 Infection in a Large Cohort of Solid Organ Transplant Recipients

BACKGROUND

Solid organ transplant recipients (SOTr) are at increased risk for severe disease from coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) compared with non-SOTr.

METHODS

We performed a retrospective cohort study between March 1, 2020, and March, 30, 2021, in an integrated healthcare system with 4.3 million members aged ≥18 y including 5126 SOTr. Comparisons in COVID-19 mortality, hospitalization, and incidence were made between SOTr and non-SOTr, and between different SOTr organs. Multivariate analysis was performed to identify risk factors for COVID-19 mortality and hospitalization.

RESULTS

There were 600 SOTr (kidney, liver, heart, and lung) with COVID-19. Per person-year incidence of COVID-19 among SOTr was 10.0% versus 7.6% among non-SOTr (P < 0.0001). Compared with uninfected SOTr, infected SOTr were older (57.1 ± 14.0 versus 45.7 ± 17.9 y, P < 0.001), predominantly Hispanic/Latino (58.8% versus 38.6%, P < 0.0001), hypertensive (77.0% versus 23.8%; P < 0.0001), and diabetic (49.6% versus 13.0%; P = 0.0009). Compared with non-SOTr, infected SOTr had higher hospitalization (39.5% versus 6.0%; P < 0.0001), intensive care unit admission (29.1% versus 15.5%; P < 0.0001), and mortality (14.7% versus 1.8%; P < 0.0001) from COVID-19. Older age (hazard ratio [HR], 1.07; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.05-1.10), male gender (HR, 1.79; 95% CI, 1.11-2.86), and higher body mass index (HR, 1.04; 95% CI, 1.00-1.09; P = 0.047) were associated with increased mortality from COVID-19, whereas race, diabetes, and number/type of immunosuppressive medications were not. Among the different SOTr, COVID-19 mortality risk was lowest in liver recipients (HR, 0.34; 95% CI, 0.16-0.73) and highest in lung recipients (HR, 1.74; 95% CI, 0.68-4.42).

CONCLUSIONS

SOTr have higher rates of hospitalization and mortality from COVID-19 compared with the general population. Among the SOTr, the incidence and outcomes were distinct among different transplantation types.

Lumpy Skin Disease Outbreaks in Africa, Europe, and Asia (2005-2022): Multiple Change Point Analysis and Time Series Forecast

LSD is an important transboundary disease affecting the cattle industry worldwide. The objectives of this study were to determine trends and significant change points, and to forecast the number of LSD outbreak reports in Africa, Europe, and Asia. LSD outbreak report data (January 2005 to January 2022) from the World Organization for Animal Health were analyzed. We determined statistically significant change points in the data using binary segmentation, and forecast the number of LSD reports using auto-regressive moving average (ARIMA) and neural network auto-regressive (NNAR) models. Four significant change points were identified for each continent. The year between the third and fourth change points (2016-2019) in the African data was the period with the highest mean of number of LSD reports. All change points of LSD outbreaks in Europe corresponded with massive outbreaks during 2015-2017. Asia had the highest number of LSD reports in 2019 after the third detected change point in 2018. For the next three years (2022-2024), both ARIMA and NNAR forecast a rise in the number of LSD reports in Africa and a steady number in Europe. However, ARIMA predicts a stable number of outbreaks in Asia, whereas NNAR predicts an increase in 2023-2024. This study provides information that contributes to a better understanding of the epidemiology of LSD.

Association between immigration enforcement encounters and COVID-19 testing and delays in care: a cross-sectional study of undocumented young adult immigrants in california

BACKGROUND

Undocumented immigrants are expected to face increased risks related to COVID-19 due to marginalizing restrictive immigration policies. However, few studies have assessed the prevalence of direct encounters with the immigration enforcement system among the undocumented and its impacts on their COVID-related health behaviors and outcomes. In this study, we quantify undocumented immigrants' lifetime exposure to various immigration enforcement tactics and their association with delays in COVID-19 testing and healthcare behaviors.

METHODS

This cross-sectional study included a non-random sample of 326 Asian and Latinx undocumented immigrants in California from September 2020 to February 2021. The primary exposure was immigration enforcement encounter scores ranging from 0-9, assessed through self-reports of direct experiences with the immigration system, immigration officials, and law enforcement. The main outcomes were positive test for COVID-19, had or suspected having COVID-19, and delayed or avoided testing and/or treatment for COVID-19 due to immigration status. We used multivariable logistic regression models to examine the association between the primary exposure and outcomes of interest.

RESULTS

Among 326 participants, 7% had received a positive COVID-19 test result, while 43% reported having or suspected having COVID-19. Almost 13% delayed or avoided COVID-19 testing and/or treatment because of their immigration status. Overall, an increase in immigration enforcement encounters was associated with higher odds of suspecting having had COVID-19 (aOR = 1.13; 95% CI: 1.01,1.26). Reporting an additional enforcement encounter was associated with higher odds of delaying or avoiding testing and/or treatment because of immigration status (aOR = 1.53, 95% CI: 1.26,1.86). Compared to their Latino counterparts, Asian respondents were more likely to report higher odds of delaying or avoiding testing and/or treatment (aOR = 3.13, 95% CI: 1.17,8.42). There were no significant associations between the enforcement score and testing positive for COVID-19. Additionally, while Latinxs were more likely to report immigration enforcement encounters than Asians, there were no differences in the effects of race on COVID-19 testing and healthcare behaviors in models with race as an interaction term (p < 0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

Immigration enforcement encounters compound barriers to COVID-19 testing and treatment for undocumented immigrants.

Predictors of COVID-19 severity and hospitalization: A survey-based study from Jordan

Objectives

To explore the possible predictors of severe illness and hospitalization due to COVID-19 among Jordanians.

Method

The study was cross-sectional, survey-based and was conducted from March to July of 2021. Individuals who had recovered from COVID-19 (n = 2148) were recruited in the study. Participants were categorized according to the severity of COVID-19 infection and hospitalization. The study sample was stratified according to age, gender, body mass index (BMI), comorbidities, family income, smoking status, and ABO blood groups. Risk factors were investigated using the Chi-square test and multivariate logistic regression analyses.

Results

Severe illness and hospitalization were associated with older age, males, individuals with comorbidities, higher BMI, and lower-income. No significant differences were found in the incidence of severe illness or hospitalization frequency between the ABO groups or between smokers and non-smokers. Multivariate logistic regression analyses predicted male gender, being older than 40, having a BMI of over 30, having 3 or more comorbidities, and low family income as risk factors for severe COVID-19 outcomes.

Conclusion

Age was the strongest predictor for severe COVID-19 outcome, followed by having 3 or more comorbidities and to a lesser extent male gender and obesity. These results could help target at-risk groups with infection prevention measures including prioritizing primary COVID-19 vaccines, as well as booster doses.

Testing and vaccination to reduce the impact of COVID-19 in nursing homes: an agent-based approach

BACKGROUND

Efforts to protect residents in nursing homes involve non-pharmaceutical interventions, testing, and vaccine. We sought to quantify the effect of testing and vaccine strategies on the attack rate, length of the epidemic, and hospitalization.

METHODS

We developed an agent-based model to simulate the dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 transmission among resident and staff agents in a nursing home. Interactions between 172 residents and 170 staff based on data from a nursing home in Los Angeles, CA. Scenarios were simulated assuming different levels of non-pharmaceutical interventions, testing frequencies, and vaccine efficacy to reduce transmission.

RESULTS

Under the hypothetical scenario of widespread SARS-CoV-2 in the community, 3-day testing frequency minimized the attack rate and the time to eradicate an outbreak. Prioritization of vaccine among staff or staff and residents minimized the cumulative number of infections and hospitalization, particularly in the scenario of high probability of an introduction. Reducing the probability of a viral introduction eased the demand on testing and vaccination rate to decrease infections and hospitalizations.

CONCLUSIONS

Improving frequency of testing from 7-days to 3-days minimized the number of infections and hospitalizations, despite widespread community transmission. Vaccine prioritization of staff provides the best protection strategy when the risk of viral introduction is high.

Infectious Diseases Society of America Guidelines on Infection Prevention for Healthcare Personnel Caring for Patients with Suspected or Known COVID-19

BACKGROUND

Since its emergence in late 2019, SARS-CoV-2 continues to pose a risk to healthcare personnel (HCP) and patients in healthcare settings. Although all clinical interactions likely carry some risk of transmission, human actions like coughing and care activities like aerosol-generating procedures likely have a higher risk of transmission. The rapid emergence and global spread of SARS-CoV-2 continues to create significant challenges in healthcare facilities, particularly with shortages of personal protective equipment (PPE) used by HCP. Evidence-based recommendations for what PPE to use in conventional, contingency, and crisis standards of care continue to be needed. Where evidence is lacking, the development of specific research questions can help direct funders and investigators.

OBJECTIVE

Develop evidence-based rapid guidelines intended to support HCP in their decisions about infection prevention when caring for patients with suspected or known COVID-19.

METHODS

IDSA formed a multidisciplinary guideline panel including frontline clinicians, infectious disease specialists, experts in infection control, and guideline methodologists with representation from the disciplines of public health, medical microbiology, pediatrics, critical care medicine and gastroenterology. The process followed a rapid recommendation checklist. The panel prioritized questions and outcomes. Then a systematic review of the peer-reviewed and grey literature was conducted. The Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE) approach was used to assess the certainty of evidence and make recommendations.

RESULTS

The IDSA guideline panel agreed on eight recommendations, including two updated recommendations and one new recommendation added since the first version of the guideline. Narrative summaries of other interventions undergoing evaluations are also included.

CONCLUSIONS

Using a combination of direct and indirect evidence, the panel was able to provide recommendations for eight specific questions on the use of PPE for HCP providing care for patients with suspected or known COVID-19. Where evidence was lacking, attempts were made to provide potential avenues for investigation. There remain significant gaps in the understanding of the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 and PPE recommendations may need to be modified in response to new evidence. These recommendations should serve as a minimum for PPE use in healthcare facilities and do not preclude decisions based on local risk assessments or requirements of local health jurisdictions or other regulatory bodies.

The MaD-CLINYC score: An easy tool for the prediction of the outcome of hospitalized COVID-19 patients

BACKGROUND

Most outcome-predictive models for COVID-19 patients use hospital admission data, offering a spontaneous mortality risk estimation. We aimed to elaborate on a tool that could be applied repeatedly, thus being more suitable for these patients' rapidly changing clinical course.

METHODS

In this prospective study, we evaluated 560 samples derived from 156 patients hospitalized for COVID-19 in a single center. Age >61 years, male sex, comorbidities >2, need for intensive care unit admission, lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) >408 U/L, Neutrophil/Lymphocyte Ratio (NLR) >17, C-reactive protein (CRP) >10 mg/dl, and D-dimers >3,200 ng/ml were incorporated in an eight-scale score (MaD-CLINYC) after optimal scaling, ridge regression, and bootstrapping, which was documented to correlate with outcome independently of one or more samples analyzed, day from admission at sampling, and need for delivery. Validation process was performed over 574 samples derived from three centers.

RESULTS

The developing and the validation cohort Area under Curve (AUC) was 0.90 (95 % Confidence Interval: 0.82-0.98) and 0.91 (0.88-0.94), respectively (p =0.822). A MaD-CLINYC score ≥4 had 75 % sensitivity and 81 % specificity to predict fatal outcome.

CONCLUSIONS

MaD-CLINYC score is a powerful, feasible, easy-to-use, dynamic tool to assess the risk of the outcome, thus assisting clinicians in close monitoring and timely decisions in COVID-19 hospitalized patients. HIPPOKRATIA 2021, 25 (3):119-125.