Modelling the long-term benefits of tolvaptan therapy on renal function decline in autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease: an exploratory analysis using the ADPKD outcomes model

Effectiveness of tolvaptan on renal replacement therapy in patients with autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease: a retrospective cohort study from the TriNetX global collaborative network

BACKGROUND AND HYPOTHESIS

Autosomal Dominant Polycystic Kidney Disease (ADPKD) is a major genetic contributor to end-stage kidney disease (ESKD). Current evidence on tolvaptan primarily focuses on slowing estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) decline and kidney volume growth. However, direct confirmation of its effectiveness in reducing the need for hemodialysis in ESKD remains limited.

METHODS

We included ADPKD patients aged ≥18 years using TriNetx data from Sep 2, 2018, to Sep 3, 2023. Propensity score matching (PSM) ensured baseline comparability (standardized mean difference (SMD) <0.1). Hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) evaluated outcomes, and subgroup analyses were performed.

RESULTS

After 1:1 PSM, both groups comprised 673 patients. The average age was 45, with generally good health (3-5% diabetes, 2-3% ischemic heart disease). Baseline eGFR averaged ∼55 ml/min/1.732m2. Post-matching, all SMDs were <0.1, indicating successful matching. Tolvaptan users exhibited lower eGFR (51.45 ± 30.09 vs. 57.37 ± 33.65, p < 0.001) and higher risk of stage 4-CKD (HR: 2.436, 95% CI:1.649, 3.599) compared to non-users. However, tolvaptan users showed significantly reduced chances of initiating hemodialysis (HR:0.362, 95%CI:0.176, 0.745), experiencing urinary tract infections (HR:0.581, 95%CI:0.354, 0.956), and all-cause mortality (HR:0.355, 95% CI:0.180, 0.700). Kaplan-Meier curves for hemodialysis initiation indicated higher survival rates among tolvaptan users across age and number of medication refill subgroups.

CONCLUSIONS

This real-world study, employing precise matching, reveals tolvaptan's role in reducing hemodialysis initiation risk in ADPKD, despite initial hemodynamic-induced lower eGFR.

Urinary Biomarkers in Monitoring the Progression and Treatment of Autosomal Dominant Polycystic Kidney Disease-The Promised Land?

Autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease (ADPKD) is the most common genetic kidney disease, and it leads to end-stage renal disease (ESRD). The clinical manifestations of ADPKD are variable, with extreme differences observable in its progression, even among members of the same family with the same genetic mutation. In an age of new therapeutic options, it is important to identify patients with rapidly progressive evolution and the risk factors involved in the disease's poor prognosis. As the pathophysiological mechanisms of the formation and growth of renal cysts have been clarified, new treatment options have been proposed to slow the progression to end-stage renal disease. Furthermore, in addition to the conventional factors (PKD1 mutation, hypertension, proteinuria, total kidney volume), increasing numbers of studies have recently identified new serum and urinary biomarkers of the disease's progression, which are cheaper and more easily to dosing from the early stages of the disease. The present review discusses the utility of new biomarkers in the monitoring of the progress of ADPKD and their roles in new therapeutic approaches.

Clinical characteristics and risk factors for kidney failure in patients with autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease: A retrospective study

Autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease (ADPKD) is a hereditary and progressive renal disease. By the age of 65 years, 45% to 70% of patients with ADPKD reach end-stage renal disease (ESRD). Although there are various treatments for this condition, no standard therapy exists to delay the progression of ADPKD. Hence, understanding the factors that affect disease progression may be helpful for the treatment of ADPKD. The medical records of 288 patients with ADPKD at Keimyung University Dongsan Medical Center between January 1989 and August 2018 were analyzed retrospectively. Furthermore, we inspected the risk factors involved in the progression of ADPKD and the kidney survival rates of patients using the Cox proportional hazards model and Kaplan-Meier survival analysis. The mean age at the time of diagnosis was 43.1 ± 14.1 years, and there were 146 males (50.7%). In total, 197 patients (68.4%) had hypertension and 11 patients (3.8%) had cerebral aneurysm. Stroke occurred in 35 patients (12.1%), including 11 cases of cerebral hemorrhage and 24 cases of cerebral infarction. Twenty-eight patients (9.7%) died during the follow-up period (117.1 ± 102.1 months). Infection (42.9%) was the most common cause of mortality, followed by sudden cardiac death (25.0%). Overall, 132 patients (45.8%) progressed to ESRD and 104 patients (36.1%) required renal replacement therapy (RRT). The mean duration from diagnosis to RRT was 110.8 ± 93.9 months. Age at diagnosis after 30 years (odd's ratio [OR], 2.737; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.320-5.675; P = .007), baseline serum creatinine levels (OR, 1.326; 95% CI, 1.259-1.396; P < .001), and cyst infection (OR, 2.065; 95% CI, 1.242-3.433; P = .005) were the independent risk factors for kidney failure in multivariable analysis. To delay the advance of ADPKD to ESRD, early diagnosis and close observation for the onset of cyst infection are crucial.

A disease progression model estimating the benefit of tolvaptan on time to end-stage renal disease for patients with rapidly progressing autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease

Background

Tolvaptan was approved in the United States in 2018 for patients with autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease (ADPKD) at risk of rapid progression as assessed in a 3-year phase 3 clinical trial (TEMPO 3:4). An extension study (TEMPO 4:4) showed continued delay in progression at 2 years, and a trial in patients with later-stage disease (REPRISE) provided confirmatory evidence of efficacy. Given the relatively shorter-term duration of the clinical trials, estimating the longer-term benefit associated with tolvaptan via extrapolation of the treatment effect is an important undertaking.

Methods

A model was developed to simulate a cohort of patients with ADPKD at risk of rapid progression and predict their long-term outcomes using an algorithm organized around the Mayo Risk Classification system, which has five subclasses (1A through 1E) based on estimated kidney growth rates. The model base-case population represents 1280 patients enrolled in TEMPO 3:4 beginning in chronic kidney disease (CKD) stages G1, G2, and G3 across Mayo subclasses 1C, 1D, and 1E. The algorithm was used to predict longer-term natural history health outcomes. The estimated treatment effect of tolvaptan from TEMPO 3:4 was applied to the natural history to predict the longer-term treatment benefit of tolvaptan. For the cohort, analyzed once reflecting natural history and once assuming treatment with tolvaptan, the model estimated lifetime progression through CKD stages, end-stage renal disease (ESRD), and death.

Results

When treated with tolvaptan, the model cohort was predicted to experience a 3.1-year delay of ESRD (95% confidence interval: 1.8 to 4.4), approximately a 23% improvement over the estimated 13.7 years for patients not receiving tolvaptan. Patients beginning tolvaptan treatment in CKD stages G1, G2, and G3 were predicted to experience estimated delays of ESRD, compared with patients not receiving tolvaptan, of 3.8 years (21% improvement), 3.0 years (24% improvement), and 2.1 years (28% improvement), respectively.

Conclusions

The model estimated that patients treated with tolvaptan versus no treatment spent more time in earlier CKD stages and had later onset of ESRD. Findings highlight the potential long-term value of early intervention with tolvaptan in patients at risk of rapid ADPKD progression.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12882-022-02956-8.

Clinical Trial Considerations in Developing Treatments for Early Stages of Common, Chronic Kidney Diseases: A Scientific Workshop Cosponsored by the National Kidney Foundation and the US Food and Drug Administration

In the past decade, advances in the validation of surrogate end points for chronic kidney disease (CKD) progression have heightened interest in evaluating therapies in early CKD. In December 2020, the National Kidney Foundation sponsored a scientific workshop in collaboration with the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) to explore patient, provider, and payor perceptions of the value of treating early CKD. The workshop reviewed challenges for trials in early CKD, including trial designs, identification of high-risk populations, and cost-benefit and safety considerations. Over 90 people representing a range of stakeholders including experts in clinical trials, nephrology, cardiology and endocrinology, patient advocacy organizations, patients, payors, health economists, regulators and policy makers attended a virtual meeting. There was consensus among the attendees that there is value to preventing the development and treating the progression of early CKD in people who are at high risk for progression, and that surrogate end points should be used to establish efficacy. Attendees also concluded that cost analyses should be holistic and include aspects beyond direct savings for treatment of kidney failure; and that safety data should be collected outside/beyond the duration of a clinical trial. Successful drug development and implementation of effective therapies will require collaboration across sponsors, patients, patient advocacy organizations, medical community, regulators, and payors.

Potential effect of tolvaptan on polycystic liver disease for patients with ADPKD meeting the Japanese criteria of tolvaptan use

Polycystic liver disease (PLD) is a common extrarenal complication of autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease (ADPKD), which causes compression-related syndrome and ultimately leads to liver dysfunction. Tolvaptan, a V2 receptor antagonist, is widely used to protect kidney function in ADPKD but its effect on PLD remains unknown. An observational cohort study was conducted to evaluate tolvaptan’s effect on patients with PLD due to ADPKD. After screening 902 patients, we found the 107 ADPKD patients with PLD who met the criteria of tolvaptan use in Japan. Among them, tolvaptan was prescribed for 62 patients (tolvaptan group), while the other was defined as the non-tolvaptan group. Compared with the non-tolvaptan group, the tolvaptan group had larger height-adjusted total kidney volume (median 994(range 450–4152) mL/m, 513 (405–1928) mL/m, p = 0.01), lower albumin level (mean 3.9±SD 0.4 g/dL, 4.3±0.4g/dL, p<0.01), and higher serum creatinine level (1.2±0.4 mg/dL, 0.9±0.2 mg/dL, p<0.01). Although the median change in annual growth rate of total liver volume (TLV) was not statistically different between the tolvaptan group (-0.8 (-15.9, 16.7) %/year) and the non-tolvaptan group (1.7 (-15.6–18.7) %/year)(p = 0.52), 20 (43.5%) patients in the tolvaptan group experienced a decrease in the growth rate of TLV (responders). A multivariable logistic regression model adjusting for related variables showed that older age (odds ratio 1.15 [95% CI 1.01–1.32]) and a higher growth rate of TLV in the non-tolvaptan period (odds 1.45 95% CI 1.10–1.90) were significantly associated with responders. In conclusion, the change in annual growth rate of TLV in ADPKD patients taking tolvaptan was not statistically different compared with that in ADPKD patients without taking tolvaptan. However, tolvaptan may have the potential to suppress the growth rate of TLV in some PLD patients due to ADPKD, especially in older patients or those that are rapid progressors of PLD. Several limitations were included in this study, therefore well-designed prospective studies were required to confirm the effect of tolvaptan on PLD.

The wind of change in the management of autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease in childhood

Significant progress has been made in understanding the genetic basis of autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease (ADPKD), quantifying disease manifestations in children, exploring very-early onset ADPKD as well as pharmacological delay of disease progression in adults. At least 20% of children with ADPKD have relevant, yet mainly asymptomatic disease manifestations such as hypertension or proteinuria (in line with findings in adults with ADPKD, where hypertension and cardiovascular damage precede decline in kidney function). We propose an algorithm for work-up and management based on current recommendations that integrates the need to screen regularly for hypertension and proteinuria in offspring of affected parents with different options regarding diagnostic testing, which need to be discussed with the family with regard to ethical and practical aspects. Indications and scope of genetic testing are discussed. Pharmacological management includes renin-angiotensin system blockade as first-line therapy for hypertension and proteinuria. The vasopressin receptor antagonist tolvaptan is licensed for delaying disease progression in adults with ADPKD who are likely to experience kidney failure. A clinical trial in children is currently ongoing; however, valid prediction models to identify children likely to suffer kidney failure are lacking. Non-pharmacological interventions in this population also deserve further study.

Prostaglandins as potential targets for the treatment of polycystic kidney disease

Polycystic kidney disease (PKD) is characterized by the proliferation of fluid-filled kidney cysts that enlarge over time, causing damage to the surrounding kidney and ultimately resulting in kidney failure. Both increased cell proliferation and fluid secretion are stimulated by increased cyclic adenosine monophosphate (cAMP) in PKD kidneys, so many treatments for the disease target cAMP lowering. Prostaglandins (PG) levels are elevated in multiple animal models of PKD and mediate many of their effects by elevating cAMP levels. Inhibiting the production of PG with cyclooxygenase 2 (COX2) inhibitors reduces PG levels and reduces disease progression. However, COX inhibitors also block beneficial PG and can cause nephrotoxicity. In an orthologous model of the main form of PKD, PGD₂ and PGI₂ were the two PG highest in kidneys and most affected by a COX2 inhibitor. Future studies are needed to determine whether specific blockage of PGD₂ and/or PGI₂ activity would lead to more targeted and effective treatments with fewer undesirable side-effects.

Urinary exosome proteomic profiling defines stage-specific rapid progression of autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease and tolvaptan efficacy

ADPKD is the most common genetic disease of the kidney leading to end-stage renal disease necessitating renal replacement therapy at any time between the 1^st and 8^th decades of life due to widely variable rates of disease progression. This presents significant patient anxiety and a significant prognostic and therapeutic challenge. Tolvaptan is the only approved drug licensed to slow ADPKD progression by reducing renal cystic expansion but side-effects can limit its efficacy. To address the need to identify new biomarkers to monitor progression of ADPKD and to evaluate the therapeutic effects of Tolvaptan, proteomic analysis was conducted on defined (40-100nm) urinary exosomes isolated from ADPKD patients phenotyped and clinically monitored over a 10-year period. Comparative Gene Ontology analysis of Tandem Mass Tag labelled mass spectrometry-derived protein profiles from urinary exosomes from ADPKD patients with rapid (>10ml/min/5 years decline in estimated glomerular filtration rate) versus slow progression showed distinctive patterns of pathway up-regulation. Clear discrimination between rapid and slowly-progressive profiles were seen in all stages functional decline in ADPKD patients whether with mild (>70ml/min), moderate (50-69ml/min) or severe (<49ml/min) disease at onset. Discriminatory pathways and proteins included Notch-, integrin- and growth factor-signalling; microtubular kinase, vesicular proteins and epidermal growth factor substrates. Confocal microscopy of fluorescently-labelled normal versus ADPKD epithelial cell-derived exosomes in vitro also identified ADPKD-dependent abnormalities in intracellular vesicular trafficking and implicated changes in ADPKD-dependent exosome secretion and target cell uptake as factors underlying urinary exosome excretion biomarker properties. Comparative proteomic analysis of urinary exosomal proteins in individual patients before and after treatment with Tolvaptan for 4 years also identified distinct patterns of pathway modification dependent on the degree of effectiveness of the therapeutic response. Up-regulation of Wnt-pathway and vesicular proteins were characteristic of urinary exosomes from ADPKD patients with good responses to Tolvaptan while upregulation of angiogenesis pathways and additional molecular forms of vasopressin receptor AVPR2 were characteristic in urinary exosomes of ADPKD patients with poor responses. Taken together, these studies conclude that proteomic profiling of urinary exosome biomarkers provides a specific, sensitive and practical non-invasive method to identify and monitor the rate of disease progression and the effects of Tolvaptan therapy in individual ADPKD patients. This provides a means to identify those patients most likely to benefit maximally from therapy and to progress towards a personalization of ADPKD prognosis and management.