Validation of serum progesterone <35nmol/L as a predictor of miscarriage among women with threatened miscarriage

Association between vaginal bleeding in pregnancy that resulted in delivery and risk of cancer: A Danish registry-based cohort study

BACKGROUND

Vaginal bleeding (VB) before 20 gestational weeks of a viable pregnancy is a manifestation of a threatened miscarriage. VB is associated with increased levels of pro-inflammatory cytokines such as interferon-gamma, tumour necrosis factor-alpha and interleukin-6. Increased levels of these cytokines and oxidative stress are risk factors for cancer. The risk of cancer following a VB-affected pregnancy that ended in childbirth is unknown.

OBJECTIVES

To investigate the associations between VB in pregnancy that resulted in delivery and risk of incident cancer.

METHODS

We conducted a cohort study (1995-2018) in Denmark using administrative and healthcare registries. We included 37,082 VB-affected deliveries, 1,363,614 VB-unaffected deliveries, 324,328 pregnancies ending in terminations, and 137,104 miscarriages. We computed the absolute risk of cancer and hazard ratios (HR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) adjusted for age, calendar year, morbidities, and socio-economic factors using Cox proportional hazards regression. Multiple pregnancies to the same woman were accounted for in the analysis.

RESULTS

The median (25th-75th percentile) follow-up in the study was 12.6 (6.9, 18.2) years. The prevalence of VB in the present study was 3%. At the end of the follow-up, there were 1320 cancer cases among the VB-affected delivery cohort, 40,420 among the VB-unaffected delivery cohort, 10,300 among the termination cohort and 4790 among the miscarriage cohort. HRs for any cancer among VB-affected deliveries were 1.03 (95% CI 0.97, 1.08) compared with VB-unaffected deliveries, 1.03 (95% CI 0.97, 1.09) compared with terminations and 0.90 (95% CI 0.84, 0.95) compared with miscarriages. There were no increased risks of premenopausal breast cancer, cervical cancer, ovary and fallopian tube cancer or uterine cancer following VB-affected deliveries vs. comparison cohorts.

CONCLUSIONS

We found no evidence of an association between vaginal bleeding in pregnancy and an increased risk of cancer.

Exploring Progesterone Deficiency in First-Trimester Miscarriage and the Impact of Hormone Therapy on Foetal Development: A Scoping Review

Background and Objectives: Progesterone deficiency during pregnancy may lead to various complications, including first-trimester miscarriage, which is the most common pregnancy complication. However, progesterone therapy may play a role in pregnancy maintenance and foetal development. The aim of this scoping review is to present evidence on the link between progesterone deficiency and first-trimester miscarriage among pregnant women and assess the impact of progesterone therapy on foetal development. Methods: A comprehensive global systematic search of mainly primary research studies was conducted using several databases. Peer-reviewed studies published between 2010 and 2023 were included. The scoping review was conducted using the framework outlined by the Joanna Briggs Institute (JBI) and reported using the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses-Extension for Scoping Reviews (PRISMA-ScR) statement. Results: Twenty-three articles (which included 35,862 participants) were included in the analysis. Most studies were conducted in mid- to high-income countries. All 23 articles reported a significant positive relationship between progesterone deficiency and first-trimester miscarriage. Furthermore, the majority of studies reported a higher risk of miscarriage when lower levels of progesterone are combined with other declined hormones. While most studies reported that progesterone therapy may reduce the rate of first-trimester miscarriage among pregnant women, no evidence of health-related harm to offspring development was reported. Conclusions: The findings from this systematic-scoping review indicate possible benefits of progesterone replacement therapy in maintaining a healthy pregnancy and foetal development. Rigorous studies that include large sample sizes and systematic reviews are required to confirm these findings further.

Can single progesterone concentration predict miscarriage in early pregnant women with threatened miscarriage: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

About 25% of pregnant women experience bleeding in the early stage, and half of them eventually progress to pregnancy loss. Progesterone serves as a useful biomarker to predict miscarriage in threatened miscarriage, yet its performance is still debated.

AIM

To evaluate the performance of single serum progesterone predicting miscarriage in early pregnant patients with threatened miscarriage.

METHOD

The online database was searched to yield the literature using the terms of 'Abortion', 'Miscarriage', and 'serum Progesterone', including PubMed, Scopus, Embase, Cochrane library, and China national knowledge infrastructure. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, likelihood ratio (LLR) and diagnostic odds ratio (DOR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) were computed. Publication bias was assessed by the deeks funnel plot asymmetry test. Subgroup analyses were conducted according to the progesterone level (< 12 ng/mL), recruited location and region, progesterone measurement method, exogenous progesterone supplement and follow up.

RESULTS

In total, 12 studies were eligible to be included in this study, with sample sizes ranging from 76 to 1087. The included patients' gestational age was between 4 and 12 weeks. No significant publication bias was detected from all included studies. The threshold of progesterone reported ranged from 8 to 30 ng/ml. The synthesized area under the ROC curve (0.85, 95% CI 0.81 to 0.88), positive LLR (6.2, 4.0 to 9.7) and DOR (18, 12 to 27) of single progesterone measurement distinguishing miscarriage were relatively good in early pregnant patients with threatened miscarriage. When the threshold of < 12 ng/mL was adapted, the progesterone provided a higher area under the ROC curve (0.90 vs. 0.78), positive LLR (8.3 vs. 3.8) and DOR (22 vs.12) than its counterpart (12 to 30 ng/mL).

CONCLUSION

Single progesterone measurement can act as a biomarker of miscarriage in early pregnant patients with threatened miscarriage, and it has a better performance when the concentration is <12 ng/mL.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

PROSPERO (CRD42021255382).

Association between pregnancy affected by vaginal bleeding and women's mortality: A cohort study

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the association between vaginal bleeding (VB) in pregnancy and women's mortality, using VB-unaffected pregnancies, terminations and miscarriages as comparators.

DESIGN

Observational cohort study.

SETTING

Nationwide registries of Denmark linked at an individual level.

POPULATION OR SAMPLE

1 354 181 women and their 3 162 317 pregnancies (1979-2017), including 70 835 VB-affected pregnancies and comparators: 2 236 359 VB-unaffected pregnancies ending in childbirth; 589 697 terminations; and 265 426 miscarriages.

METHODS

We followed pregnancies until the earliest date of woman's death, emigration or end of data.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

All-cause and cause-specific mortality rates per 10 000 person-years (PY) and hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) adjusted using Cox proportional hazards regression for age, calendar year, pre-existing chronic conditions and socio-economic factors.

RESULTS

There were 2320 deaths from any cause among women following VB-affected pregnancy (mortality rate 15.2, 95% CI 14.6-15.9 per 10 000 PY); 55 030 deaths following VB-unaffected pregnancy (mortality rate 12.7, 95% CI 12.6-12.8); 27 500 deaths following a termination (mortality rate 21.9, 95% CI 21.6-22.1), and 10 865 deaths following a miscarriage (mortality rate 19.2, 95% CI 18.8-19.6). For comparison of VB-affected versus VB-unaffected pregnancies, associations with all-cause (HR 1.14, 95% CI 1.09-1.19), natural causes (HR 1.15, 95% CI 1.09-1.22) and non-natural causes (HR 1.27, 95% CI 1.08-1.48) mortality were attenuated in a sensitivity analysis of pregnancies recorded in 1994-2017 (HR 1.00, 95% CI 0.90-1.12, HR 0.98, 95% CI 0.85-1.14 and HR 1.04, 95% CI 0.72-1.51, respectively). Contrasts with remaining comparators did not suggest increased risks of all-cause, natural or non-natural mortality causes.

CONCLUSION

We found no evidence of an increased risk of women's mortality following VB-affected versus VB-unaffected pregnancy, termination or miscarriage.

Usability, accuracy, and cost-effectiveness of a medical software for early pregnancies: a retrospective study

STUDY QUESTION

Can early pregnancies be accurately and cost-effectively diagnosed and managed using a new medical computerized tool?

SUMMARY ANSWER

Compared to the standard clinical approach, retrospective implementation of the new medical software in a gynaecological emergency unit was correlated with more accurate diagnosis and more cost-effective management.

WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY

Early pregnancy complications are responsible for a large percentage of consultations, mostly in emergency units, with guidelines becoming complex and poorly known/misunderstood by practitioners.

STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION

A total of 780 gynaecological emergency consultations (446 patients), recorded between November 2018 and June 2019 in a tertiary university hospital, were retrospectively encoded in a new medical computerized tool. The inclusion criteria were a positive hCG test result, ultrasonographical visualization of gestational sac, and/or embryo corresponding to a gestational age of 14 weeks or less. Diagnosis and management suggested by the new computerized tool are named eDiagnoses, while those provided by a gynaecologist member of the emergency department staff are called medDiagnoses.

PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS

Usability was the primary endpoint, with accuracy and cost reduction, respectively, as secondary and tertiary endpoints. Identical eDiagnoses/medDiagnoses were considered as accurate. During follow-up visits, if the updated eDiagnoses and medDiagnoses became both identical to a previously discrepant eDiagnosis or medDiagnosis, this previous eDiagnosis or medDiagnosis was also considered as correct. Four double-blinded experts reviewed persistent discrepancies, determining the accurate diagnoses. eDiagnoses/medDiagnoses accuracies were compared using McNemar's Chi square test, sensitivity, specificity, and predictive values.

MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE

Only 1 (0.1%) from 780 registered medical records lacked data for full encoding. Out of the 779 remaining consultations, 675 eDiagnoses were identical to the medDiagnoses (86.6%) and 104 were discrepant (13.4%). From these 104, 60 reached an agreement during follow-up consultations, with 59 medDiagnoses ultimately changing into the initial eDiagnoses (98%) and only one discrepant eDiagnosis turning later into the initial medDiagnosis (2%). Finally, 24 remained discrepant at all subsequent checks and 20 were not re-evaluated. Out of these 44, the majority of experts agreed on 38 eDiagnoses (86%) and 5 medDiagnoses (11%, including four twin pregnancies whose twinness was the only discrepancy). No majority was reached for one discrepant eDiagnosis/medDiagnosis (2%). In total, the accuracy of eDiagnoses was 99.1% (675 + 59 + 38 = 772 eDiagnoses out of 779), versus 87.4% (675 + 1 + 5 = 681) for medDiagnoses (P < 0.0001). Calculating all basic costs of extra consultations, extra-medications, extra-surgeries, and extra-hospitalizations induced by incorrect medDiagnoses versus eDiagnoses, the new medical computerized tool would have saved 3623.75 Euros per month. Retrospectively, the medical computerized tool was usable in almost all the recorded cases (99.9%), globally more accurate (99.1% versus 87.4%), and for all diagnoses except twinning reports, and it was more cost-effective than the standard clinical approach.

LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION

The retrospective study design is a limitation. Some observed improvements with the medical software could derive from the encoding by a rested and/or more experienced physician who had a better ultrasound interpretation. This software cannot replace clinical and ultrasonographical skills but may improve the compliance to published guidelines.

WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS

This medical computerized tool is improving. A new version considers diagnosis and management of multiple pregnancies with their specificities (potentially multiple locations, chorioamnionicity). Prospective evaluations will be required. Further developmental steps are planned, including software incorporation into ultrasound devices and integration of previously published predictive/prognostic factors (e.g. serum progesterone, corpus luteum scoring).

STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S)

No external funding was obtained for this study. F.B. and D.G. created the new medical software.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

NCT03993015.

Defects in protective cytokine profiles in spontaneous miscarriage in the first trimester

OBJECTIVE

To study differences in cytokine expression profiles between women with ongoing pregnancy and those experiencing spontaneous miscarriage, among women who presented with threatened miscarriage before week 16 of gestation.

DESIGN

Prospective cohort study.

SETTING

Academic hospital.

PATIENT(S)

In this prospective cohort study, 155 pregnant women, comprising normal pregnant women recruited from antenatal clinics (n = 97) and women with threatened miscarriage recruited from an emergency walk-in clinic (n = 58).

INTERVENTION(S)

None.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE(S)

Sixty-five serum cytokines quantified using multiplex immunoassay correlated with miscarriage outcomes.

RESULT(S)

Among women presenting with threatened miscarriage, those who eventually miscarried had significantly lower levels of interleukin (IL)-2, IL-12p70, IL-17A, B-cell-activating factor, B lymphocyte chemoattractant, basic nerve growth factor, interferon-γ, tumor necrosis factor-related apoptosis-inducing ligand, thymic stromal lymphopoietin, and tumor necrosis factor-α and higher levels of vascular endothelial growth factor A, IL-21, and stromal cell-derived factor 1α than those with ongoing pregnancy. Comparisons between normal pregnancies and women with threatened miscarriage who eventually miscarried revealed significant differences across 7 cytokines: B-cell-activating factor; B lymphocyte chemoattractant; basic nerve growth factor; IL-17A; fractalkine/CX3CL1; vascular endothelial growth factor A; and CCL22. Vascular endothelial growth factor A exhibited a negative correlation with the progesterone level (r = -0.270). The cluster of significant cytokines alludes to T cell proliferation, B-cell proliferation, natural killer cell-mediated cytotoxicity, and apoptosis as important pathways that determine pregnancy outcomes. Bioinformatic analysis further revealed alteration of the suppressor of cytokine signaling proteins family of Janus kinase-signal transducer and activator of transcription signaling axis by cytokines as a plausible key molecular mechanism in spontaneous miscarriage.

CONCLUSION(S)

This study demonstrates that the regulated balance between the proinflammatory and anti-inflammatory pathways is crucial to maintaining pregnancy. A better understanding of the cytokines associated with immunomodulatory effects may lead to novel targets for the prediction and treatment of spontaneous miscarriage.

Performance of single serum progesterone in the evaluation of symptomatic first-trimester pregnant patients: a systematic review and meta-analysis

OBJECTIVES

Pain and bleeding complicate 30% of pregnancies, raising concerns for viability. The objective is to evaluate the diagnostic characteristics of a single serum progesterone level in assessing pregnancy viability among symptomatic patients.

METHODS

We conducted a predefined literature search in MEDLINE, Embase (OVID), CINAHL and Cochrane databases for studies that enrolled patients in first trimester with miscarriage symptoms, measured progesterone and reported pregnancy viability, from inception to July 2020. We extracted data for 2 × 2 tables, progesterone threshold levels and viability. We obtained summary estimates of sensitivity, specificity, Diagnostic Odds Ratio (DOR), and predictive values at given prevalence rates.

RESULTS

We identified 54 publications. There was a total of 15,878 patients enrolled, of whom 7864 patients (49.5%) were confirmed to have a viable pregnancy and 8014 patients (50.5%) were confirmed to have a non-viable pregnancy. The cut-off value of progesterone ranged from 3.2 to 25 ng/mL (20.034-79.5 nmol/L). We evaluated the performance of the following progesterone cut-off categories: < 6.3, 6.3-12.6, 12.7-19.9, and 20-25 ng/mL. To detect non-viable pregnancy, progesterone with cut-off < 6.3 ng/mL had sensitivity 73.1%, specificity 99.2% and DOR 322.0 (PPV 0.91, 0.97 and 0.99 at prevalences 0.1, 0.25, 0.5, respectively, indicating higher likelihood of non-viable pregnancy), and cut-off category 20-25 ng/mL had sensitivity 91.3%, specificity 75% and DOR 31.4 (NPV 0.99, 0.96 and 0.89 at the prevalences above indicating higher likelihood of viable pregnancy).

CONCLUSION

A single progesterone level provides a clinically useful prognostic information on pregnancy viability. More than nine out of ten patients with a level < 6.3 ng/mL (< 20.034 nmol/L) will be diagnosed with a non-viable pregnancy, and more than 90% of patients with a level ≥ 20-25 ng/mL (63.6-79.5 nmol/L) will have a viable pregnancy confirmed.

Prediction of miscarriage in first trimester by serum estradiol, progesterone and β-human chorionic gonadotropin within 9 weeks of gestation

Purpose

To predict miscarriage outcome within 12 weeks of gestational age by evaluating values of serum estradiol, progesterone and β-human chorionic gonadotropin (β-HCG) within 9 weeks of gestation.

Methods

One hundred sixty-five women with singleton pregnancies were retrospectively studied. Estradiol, progesterone and β-HCG levels were measured at 5–6 weeks of gestation and the measurements were repeated at 7–9 weeks. According to pregnancy outcome at 12 weeks of gestation, 71 cases were categorized into miscarriage group, and 94 cases into group of normal pregnancy. Each group was further divided into 5–6 and 7–9 weeks of gestation sub-group. Predictive values of estradiol, progesterone and β- HCG levels at 5–6 weeks and 7–9 weeks of gestation were analyzed with receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and logistic regression.

Results

Serum levels of estradiol at 7–9 weeks identified miscarriage with an area under the ROC curve (AUC) of 0.866 (95% CI 0. 793 ~ 0.938, P = 0.000), diagnostic cutoff value of 576 pg/ml, sensitivity of 0.804, and specificity of 0.829 respectively at the optimal threshold, according to Youden index. Progesterone levels at 7–9 weeks were with AUC of 0.766 (95% CI 0. 672 ~ 0.861, P = 0.000), cutoff value of 15.27 ng/ml, sensitivity of 0.921, and specificity of 0.558, respectively; Estradiol at 5–6 weeks were with AUC of 0.709 (95% CI 0. 616 ~ 0.801, P < 0.001), the diagnostic cutoff value of 320 pg/ml, sensitivity of 0.800, and specificity of 0.574, respectively.

The performance of the dual markers of estradiol and progesterone analysis (AUC 0.871, CI 0.793–0.950), three-markers analysis (AUC 0.869, CI 0.759–0.980)were slightly better than the single marker at 7-9 weeks. β-HCG or progesterone provide additional utility of estradiol prediction at 5–6 weeks with AUC 0.770 (0.672–0.869) for β-HCG and estradiol, AUC0.768(CI 0.670–0.866) for β-HCG, estradiol and progesterone and AUC 0.739 (CI 0.651–0.827) for progesterone and estradiol.

Conclusions

Low serum levels such as dual of estradiol and progesterone or estradiol alone at 7–9 weeks, β-HCG or progesterone combing estradiol at 5–6 weeks of gestation can be used better to predict miscarriage in first trimester.

Effects of Different Progesterone Doses on the Concentrations of Proinflammatory and Anti-inflammatory Cytokines in Pregnant Women With Threatened Abortion

Background and objective

This study aimed to investigate how different doses of progesterone influence the concentrations of interleukin-6 (IL-6) and tumor necrotizing factor-alpha (TNF-α), which are proinflammatory cytokines, as well as that of IL-10, which is an anti-inflammatory cytokine, in pregnant women with threatened abortion.

Materials and methods

This is a prospective, single-center, randomized controlled trial conducted with 221 patients with a threatened abortion diagnosis. Group 1 consisted of IL-6, IL-10, and TNF-α values in pre-treatment blood samples from 221 patients diagnosed with imminent abortion. Group 2 included 81 patients who received natural oral 100 mg micronized progesterone MP twice a day for two weeks. Group 3 included 83 patients who were administered oral 200 mg of natural micronized progesterone MP twice a day for two weeks. Group 4 included 57 patients who received oral 200 mg of natural micronized progesterone MP twice a day for two weeks, and one depot progesterone was added to the treatment by administering it at a dosage of 500 mg/day intramuscularly.

Results

IL-6 values between groups were lower in group 4 compared to group 3 (p=0.007). When IL-10 values were compared between the groups, the IL-10 ratio was highest in group 4 and lowest in group 2 (p<0.001, p=0.003, p<0.001). When the TNF-α values between the groups were compared, the value in group 4 was decreased compared to groups 1 and 2 (p=0.031, p<0.001). In the logistic regression analysis, the IL-6 value above 12.01 increased the abortion imminens rate 1.01 times, and a TNF-α value above 11.04 increased the abortion imminens rate 1.21 times.

Conclusion

Progesterone used to treat imminent abortion reduces the levels of proinflammatory cytokines, such as IL-6 and TNF-α, while increasing those of anti-inflammatory cytokine IL-10 in proportion to the dose administered. Progesterone can prevent imminent abortion by generating an anti-inflammatory environment.

The Clinical Value of 3D Ultrasonic Measurement of the Ratio of Gestational Sac Volume to Embryo Volume in IoT-Based Prediction of Pregnancy Outcome

The objective of the research study is to investigate the use of three-dimensional ultrasonic measurement technology, to determine the size of gestational sac and embryo volume, and to use the ratio of gestational sac volume to embryo volume in IoT-based prediction of pregnancy outcome. The abnormal and normal pregnancy identifiers are there, which assists in prediction of pregnancy outcomes: whether the pregnancy is normal or may suffer pregnancy loss during first trimester. For the observational study, 500 singleton pregnant women who made an appointment for delivery in Qiqihar Hospital from January 2015 to June 2019 were considered. The 500 pregnant women received transvaginal ultrasound at 6+0 ∼ 8+0 weeks of gestational age to measure gestational sac volume (GSV), yolk sac volume (YSV), and germ volume (GV). According to pregnancy outcome, they were divided into fine group (n = 435) and abortion group (n = 65). Among the 500 cases, 435 had normal delivery and 65 had abortions. According to the results of gestational age (GA) analysis, the pregnancy success rates at 6 (n = 268), 7 (n = 184), and 8 weeks (n = 48) were 85.8%, 87.5%, and 91.7%, respectively. Comparison of pregnancy failure rate among the three groups shows statistically significant difference. The morphology of germ, yolk sac, and gestational sac cannot be used as a predictor of pregnancy outcome in various degrees. The results of multivariate Cox proportional regression analysis show the following: the ratio of germ volume (GV) to gestational sac volume (GSV) (P=0.008) has an impact on the prediction of spontaneous abortion prognosis, showing statistically significant difference; yolk sac volume (YSV), germ volume (GV), and gestational sac volume (GSV) have no effect on the prediction of spontaneous abortion prognosis (P > 0.05). The ratio of GSV to germ volume has a strong prognostic value for pregnancy results. To a certain extent, the ratio of gestational sac volume to germ volume can predict spontaneous pregnancy abortion at 6th week of gestation, providing a theoretical basis for clinical ultrasound pregnancy examination indicators.

Luteal phase deficiency during the early trimester in a case with secondary hypopituitarism following craniopharyngioma resection

A 31‐year‐old woman, who had been diagnosed with craniopharyngioma (CP) at the age of 13, suffered secondary hypopituitarism after two surgical resections of CP, receiving supplement of levothyroxine, cortisone, and sequential estrogen and progesterone because of primary amenorrhea. She managed to conceive after ovulation induction with human menopausal gonadotropin. Luteal phase deficiency (LPD) was found during the first trimester, as the progesterone stayed at a low level between 0.07 and 1.63 ng/ml within seven gestational weeks, followed by a gradual rise from 4.01 up to 34.70 ng/ml in the 11th week, which was mainly secreted by the placenta. Estrogen and progesterone were administered to the patient as luteal support until the 12th week, who succeeded in delivering a healthy baby at term. In conclusion, the patient with hypopituitarism who develops severe LPD during the early pregnancy may need luteal support until 12th week.

Long-term risk of epilepsy, cerebral palsy and attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder in children affected by a threatened abortion in utero

BACKGROUND

The birth of a child affected by a threatened abortion (TAB) in utero is associated with autism spectrum disorder; association with other neurological disorders is unknown.

METHODS

This nationwide registry-based cohort study included singletons live-born in Denmark (1979-2010), followed through 2016. The outcomes were epilepsy, cerebral palsy (CP) and attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD). We used Cox regression to compute hazard ratios (HRs), adjusted for birth year, birth order, parental age, morbidity, medication use and maternal socio-economic factors. To remove time-invariant family-shared confounding, we applied sibling analyses.

RESULTS

The study population included 1 864 221 singletons live-born in 1979-2010. Among the TAB-affected children (N = 59 134) vs TAB-unaffected children, at the end of follow-up, the cumulative incidence was 2.2% vs 1.6% for epilepsy, 0.4% vs 0.2% for CP and 5.5% vs 4.2% for ADHD (for children born in 1995-2010). The adjusted HRs were 1.25 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.16-1.34] for epilepsy, 1.42 (95% CI 1.20-1.68) for CP and 1.21 (95% CI 1.14-1.29) for ADHD. In the sibling design, the adjusted HRs were unity for epilepsy (full siblings: 0.96, 95% CI 0.82-1.12; maternal: 1.04, 95% CI 0.90-1.20; paternal: 1.08, 95% CI 0.93-1.25) and ADHD (full: 1.08, 95% CI 0.92-1.27; maternal: 1.04, 95% CI 0.90-1.20; paternal: 1.08, 95% CI 0.93-1.25). For CP, HRs shifted away from unity among sibling pairs (full: 2.92, 95% CI 1.33-6.39; maternal: 2.03, 95% CI 1.15-3.57; paternal: 3.28, 95% CI 1.36-7.91).

CONCLUSIONS

The birth of a child affected by TAB in utero was associated with a greater risk of CP, but not epilepsy or ADHD.

Early pregnancy loss

ABSTRACT

Previously called spontaneous abortion, early pregnancy loss (EPL) is the preferred term encompassing threatened abortion, incomplete abortion, complete abortion, and anembryonic pregnancy. EPL has many causes, including chromosomal abnormalities, immunologic and infectious causes, and underlying maternal risk factors. Because many patients present with first-trimester bleeding, clinicians must know the appropriate evaluation and management techniques.

Gestational age-specific normative values and determinants of serum progesterone through the first trimester of pregnancy

Progesterone is a steroid hormone that is critical for implantation and maintenance of pregnancy, and low levels are associated with higher miscarriage risk. However, little is known about its trajectory during early pregnancy. We sought to determine the gestational age-specific normative values of serum progesterone on a week-by-week basis, and its associated maternal and fetal factors, during the first trimester of a viable low-risk pregnancy. A cross-sectional study was conducted at KK Women's and Children's Hospital from 2013 to 2018. 590 women with a single viable intrauterine low-risk pregnancy, between gestational weeks 5 and 12, were recruited. Serum progesterone showed an increasing trend during the first trimester, with a transient decline between gestational weeks 6-8, corresponding to the luteal-placental shift. Lowest levels were seen at week 7. Maternal age, BMI, parity, gestational age and outcome of pregnancy at 16 weeks' gestation were found to be associated with progesterone levels. Normative values of serum progesterone for low-risk pregnancies would form the basis for future work on pathological levels of serum progesterone that may increase risk of miscarriage. Larger studies are required to validate these normative values, and personalize them to account for maternal age, BMI, parity and gestational age.

Corpus luteum score, a simple Doppler examination to prognose early pregnancies

OBJECTIVES

In early pregnancies, miscarriages and inconclusive ultrasound scans considering location and viability are very common. In several previous studies, serum progesterone levels predicted viability of pregnancy and, in recent ones, failed Pregnancies of Unknown Location (PUL), completion of miscarriage and complications. Corpus luteum, secreting progesterone in early pregnancy, was less studied. Some publications showed correlations between corpus luteum aspects and diagnosis of miscarriage but it was not evaluated for other outcomes in early pregnancy, such as failed PUL, completion of miscarriage or complications. We aimed to assess if Doppler examination of corpus luteum could also predict all these outcomes: failed PUL, diagnosis and completion of miscarriages and complications.

STUDY DESIGN

A single operator prospectively described and/or collected pictures of Doppler signal in the wall of the corpus luteum at most consultations in our early pregnancy unit and established a three-level score. All suspected or confirmed non-viable pregnancies with this score or/and serum progesterone levels were registered retrospectively. With logistic regressions, AIC/BIC, likelihood ratios, ROC curves, Mann-Whitney and Fisher exact tests, we evaluated the ability of the score, alone, to predict failed PUL, diagnosis and completion of miscarriages and the complications, and, combined, to improve previously published predictions.

RESULTS

From 277 included pregnancies, 186 (67.1 %) miscarried. Of these, 159/186 (85.5 %) fully evacuated without surgery: 114/186 (61.3 %) within 20 days after the first diagnosis and 45/186 (24.2 %) after more than 20 days. Twenty-seven patients (14.5 %) underwent surgical evacuation, including ten complications, five haemorrhages and five suspected infections. Logistic regression correlated strongly the corpus luteum score with failed PUL (p < 0.0001) and miscarriages (p < 0.0001). Moreover, rates of complications and swift non-surgical completions of miscarriage were respectively 0 % and 92 % with scores of 0, versus 6 % and 44 % with scores of 1, versus 16 % and 0 % with scores of 2. Combined with serum progesterone levels, this score improved most predictions. Adding parity or history of miscarriage in predictive models even increased these performances.

CONCLUSIONS

Corpus luteum score, alone, can predict failed PUL, diagnosis and completion of miscarriages and their complications. Combining this score with other factors (mainly serum progesterone levels) improves most predictions.

Novel approach using serum progesterone as a triage to guide management of patients with threatened miscarriage: a prospective cohort study

Threatened miscarriage is a common gynaecological emergency, with up to 25% of women eventually progressing to spontaneous miscarriage. The uncertainty of pregnancy outcomes results in significant anxiety. However, there is currently no acceptable framework for triaging patients presenting with threatened miscarriage. We aim to evaluate the efficacy and safety of a novel clinical protocol using a single serum progesterone level to prognosticate and guide management of patients with threatened miscarriage. 1087 women presenting with threatened miscarriage were enrolled in the study. The primary outcome was spontaneous miscarriage by 16 weeks’ gestation. Among the 77.9% (847/1087) of study participants with serum progesterone ≥ 35 nmol/L who were not treated with oral dydrogesterone, the miscarriage rate was 9.6% (81/847). This did not differ significantly from the 8.5% (31/364) miscarriage rate observed in our prior studies; p = 0.566. Among women with serum progesterone < 35 nmol/L who were treated with dydrogesterone, the miscarriage rate was 70.8% (170/240). Our novel clinical triage protocol using a single serum progesterone level allowed both effective risk stratification and a reduction in progestogen use with no significant adverse pregnancy outcomes. This protocol, based on a single serum progesterone cutoff, can be readily adapted for use in other healthcare institutions.

Baseline Levels of Serum Progesterone and the First Trimester Pregnancy Outcome in Women with Threatened Abortion: A Retrospective Cohort Study

Objective

The relationship between serum progesterone and the first trimester pregnancy outcome of threatened abortion is still controversial. Therefore, we aimed to further study the association between these two parameters.

Methods

The present study is an observational retrospective cohort study. A total of 726 participants who had threatened abortion from a hospital in Guangdong, China, were included in this study from 17th August 2011 to 30th October 2018. The exposure variable and the outcome variable were serum progesterone measured at baseline and early pregnancy outcome, respectively. Covariates involved in this study included patients' basic demographics, obstetric history, and clinical information.

Results

A negative association and a saturation effect were detected between serum progesterone and the first trimester pregnancy outcome. When progesterone <90.62 nmol/L, an increase in 1 nmol/L of serum progesterone was associated with 3% decrease of the risk of miscarriage (OR: 0.97, 95% CI: 0.95-0.98).

Conclusion

There was a greater risk of abortion when the serum progesterone level was less than 90.62 nmol/L. Our findings can better assist the clinician in understanding patients' conditions and making medical decisions.

Characterisation of serum progesterone and progesterone-induced blocking factor (PIBF) levels across trimesters in healthy pregnant women

Progesterone-induced blocking factor (PIBF), which plays an important role in maintaining healthy pregnancies, has shown great promise as a prognostic biomarker for threatened miscarriage. To better characterise the physiological trends of progesterone and PIBF, we analysed serum progesterone and PIBF concentrations in healthy non-pregnant and pregnant women across trimesters. We saw increasing concentrations of progesterone and PIBF in pregnant women with advancing trimesters. The serum progesterone and PIBF percentiles across gestational age in healthy pregnancies can be used as a guide for the formulation of reference ranges. We also demonstrated a significant positive correlation between progesterone and PIBF levels. This study demonstrates increasing progesterone and PIBF concentrations in later trimesters and underscores the importance of progesterone and PIBF in healthy pregnancies. Characterisation of progesterone and PIBF across gestational age in healthy pregnant women may help to prognosticate pregnancy viability and support further research into the importance of progesterone and PIBF in the maintenance of healthy pregnancies.

Multiplex Surface-Enhanced Raman Scattering Identification and Quantification of Urine Metabolites in Patient Samples within 30 min

Successful translation of laboratory-based surface-enhanced Raman scattering (SERS) platforms to clinical applications requires multiplex and ultratrace detection of small biomarker molecules from a complex biofluid. However, these biomarker molecules generally exhibit low Raman scattering cross sections and do not possess specific affinity to plasmonic nanoparticle surfaces, significantly increasing the challenge of detecting them at low concentrations. Herein, we demonstrate a "confine-and-capture" approach for multiplex detection of two families of urine metabolites correlated with miscarriage risks, 5β-pregnane-3α,20α-diol-3α-glucuronide and tetrahydrocortisone. To enhance SERS signals by 10¹²-fold, we use specific nanoscale surface chemistry for targeted metabolite capture from a complex urine matrix prior to confining them on a superhydrophobic SERS platform. We then apply chemometrics, including principal component analysis and partial least-squares regression, to convert molecular fingerprint information into quantifiable readouts. The whole screening procedure requires only 30 min, including urine pretreatment, sample drying on the SERS platform, SERS measurements, and chemometric analyses. These readouts correlate well with the pregnancy outcomes in a case-control study of 40 patients presenting threatened miscarriage symptoms.

Early pregnancy ultrasound measurements and prediction of first trimester pregnancy loss: A logistic model

Our objective was to prospectively validate the use of gestational sac (GS), yolk sac (YS) diameter, crown-rump length (CRL), and embryonal heart rate (HR) dimensions to identify early pregnancy loss. This was a prospective cohort study of first trimester pregnancies. GS and YS diameter, CRL, and HR measurements were serially obtained in singleton and twin pregnancies from 6 through 10 weeks' gestation. Non-parametric tests and logistic regression models were used for comparisons of distributions and testing of associations. A total of 252 patients were included, of which 199 were singleton pregnancies, 51 were twins, and 2 were triplets (304 total fetuses). Fifty-two patients had 61 losses. We built nomograms with the changes of the parameters evaluated in ongoing, as well as in pregnancy loss. In the pregnancies which failed, all the parameters showed significant changes, with different temporal onsets: GS and YS were the first to become abnormal, deviating from normality as early as 6 weeks' gestation (OR 0.01, 95% CI 0.0-0.09, and OR 3.36, 95% CI 1.53-7.34, respectively), followed by changes in HR, and CRL, which became evident at 7 and 8 weeks (OR 0.96, 95% CI 0.92-1.0, and OR 0.59, 95% CI 0.48-0.73, respectively). Our observations showed that, after 5 complete weeks' gestation, a small GS and a large YS reliably predicted pregnancy loss. The YS reliably identified the occurrence of a miscarriage at least 7 days prior its occurrence. CRL and HR became abnormal at a later time in pregnancy and closer to the event. These findings have important implications for patient counseling and care planning, as well as a potential bearing on cost effectiveness within early pregnancy care.

Predictive Value of Single Serum Progesterone Level for Viability in Threatened Miscarriage

BACKGROUND

Bleeding is commonly seen during early pregnancy, and predicting the outcome of pregnancy in such cases is a difficult task. The aim of our study was to evaluate the predictive value of single serum progesterone level for finding the viability in threatened miscarriage and to determine the cut-off value for a viable ongoing pregnancy.

METHODS

This was a prospective study in which patients attending the OPD with early pregnancy and bleeding were recruited. Inclusion criteria were period of amenorrhoea less than 12 weeks, complaints of bleeding per vaginum with or without lower abdominal pain and positive urine pregnancy test or serum beta HCG. Multiple pregnancies, inevitable miscarriage, ectopic pregnancy, molar pregnancy and pregnancy achieved by artificial reproductive techniques were excluded from this study. A detailed clinical examination was done, and routine investigations along with serum progesterone were done. Patients were followed up by serial ultrasound for viability, and their outcome was recorded.

RESULT

A total of 150 patients with early pregnancy threatened miscarriage were enrolled for this study. Of the patients studied, 105 (70%) had a viable pregnancy and 45 (30%) had non-viable pregnancies. The mean serum progesterone was higher in the viable pregnancy, 17.97 ± 7.75 ng/ml, compared to non-viable group, 6.21 ± 2.86 ng/ml. The area under curve was calculated, and a cut-off value of 10.08 ng/ml was obtained. 83.8% of viable pregnancies had serum progesterone more than or equal to 10.08 ng/ml which was statistically significant.

CONCLUSION

A single value of progesterone is useful in predicting the viability of the ongoing threatened pregnancy. Serum progesterone with a cut-off value of 10.8 ng/ml was found to have a positive predictive value of 95.7% and negative predictive value of 70.7% with an accuracy of 86%.

The Role of Blood Flow in Corpus Luteum Measured by Transvaginal Two-Dimensional and Three-Dimensional Ultrasound in the Prediction of Early Intrauterine Pregnancy Outcomes

Objective: The purpose of this study was to explore the application of transvaginal two-dimensional and three-dimensional power Doppler ultrasound in pregnancy corpus luteum to predict the final outcome of early intrauterine pregnancy.

Methods: This is a prospective observational cohort study. Six hundred early intrauterine pregnant women in Shanghai Changning Maternity and Infant Health Hospital were selected as the research objects from January 2015 to December 2015. According to the follow-up of 12 weeks, these pregnant women were divided into the normal pregnancy group (group A, n = 512) and the terminational pregnancy group (group B, n = 88). They all underwent both transvaginal two-dimensional ultrasound and three-dimensional power Doppler ultrasound to obtain relevant parameters of corpus luteum, namely, the average diameter of the corpus luteum (D), resistance index (RI), pulsatility index (PI), corpus luteum volume (V), vascularization index (VI), blood flow index (FI), and vascularized blood flow index (VFI). Among them, V, VI, FI, and VFI were calculated with the virtual organ computer-aided analysis method. Receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curves were drawn. The corresponding diagnostic cut-off, sensitivity, and specificity were calculated and compared.

Results: Compared with group A, the D, V, VI, FI, and VFI of corpus luteum in group B were statistically significant lower while RI and PI were statistically significant higher (P < 0.05). The diagnostic cut-off values in the prediction of early intrauterine pregnancy outcomes were D: 14.48, RI: 0.56, PI: 0.81, V: 3.89, VI: 21.48, FI: 38.99, and VFI: 10.21 respectively, and the sensitivity and specificity were D (99.2%, 67.0%), RI (98.9%, 65.0%), PI (78.4%, 89.1%), V (95.1%, 78.4%), VI (74.%, 90.9%), FI (91.8%, 90.9%), and VFI (93.9%, 87.5%) respectively. The area under the ROC curve of the combined index (RI + FI) was 0.963, which was not significantly higher compared with any single index, and both the sensitivity and specificity were 94.3%.

Conclusion: Both transvaginal two-dimensional and three-dimensional ultrasonography are of high diagnostic value in predicting the early intrauterine pregnancy outcomes.

Endogenous progesterone levels could predict reproductive outcome in frozen embryo replacement cycles supplemented with synthetic progestogens: A retrospective cohort study

PURPOSE

A retrospective, cohort study was conducted between 2009 and 2017 in a private infertility center to determine the predictive value of endogenous estrogen (E2) and progesterone (P4) levels in hormone-replacement frozen embryo replacement (FER) treatment cycles.

METHODS

A total of 120 consecutive, infertile patients who became pregnant after FER cycles were analyzed (age: 37.4 ± 4.4 years). Electively vitrified blastocysts were created during natural cycle IVF or mild ovarian stimulation treatments and subsequently transferred through delayed vitrified-thawed blastocyst transfer cycles supplemented with estrogens and a combination of synthetic progestogens. Serum E2 and progesterone P4 levels were intensively monitored every five days (from the day after embryo transfer until 9w1d of pregnancy) and compared among patients with a subsequent live birth (n = 76) or first-trimester pregnancy loss (n = 44).

RESULTS

Endogenous placental activity started as early as 5-6th pregnancy week differing significantly according to pregnancy outcome. For P4, the exponential rise from 6w2d onwards allowed distinguishing between failing and successful conceptions. For P4, lower quartiles of the live birth group did not intersect with upper quartiles of the miscarriage group.

CONCLUSIONS

Innovative FER protocols incorporating synthetic progestogens allow the correct measurement of endogenous placental activity and could help to monitor early first-trimester ART pregnancies.

Serum progesterone distribution in normal pregnancies compared to pregnancies complicated by threatened miscarriage from 5 to 13 weeks gestation: a prospective cohort study

Background

Progesterone is a critical hormone in early pregnancy. A low level of serum progesterone is associated with threatened miscarriage. We aim to establish the distribution of maternal serum progesterone in normal pregnancies compared to pregnancies complicated by threatened miscarriage from 5 to 13 weeks gestation.

Methods

This is a single centre, prospective cohort study of 929 patients. Women from the Normal Pregnancy [NP] cohort were recruited from antenatal clinics, and those in the Threatened Miscarriage [TM] cohort were recruited from emergency walk-in clinics. Women with multiple gestations, missed, incomplete or inevitable miscarriage were excluded from the study. Quantile regression was used to characterize serum progesterone levels in the NP and TM cohorts by estimating the 10th, 50th and 90th percentiles from 5 to 13 weeks gestation. Pregnancy outcome was determined at 16 weeks of gestation. Subgroup analysis within the TM group compared progesterone levels of women who subsequently miscarried with those who had ongoing pregnancies at 16 weeks of gestation.

Results

Median serum progesterone concentration demonstrated a linearly increasing trend from 57.5 nmol/L to 80.8 nmol/L from 5 to 13 weeks gestation in the NP cohort. In the TM cohort, median serum progesterone concentration increased from 41.7 nmol/L to 78.1 nmol/L. However, median progesterone levels were uniformly lower in the TM cohort by approximately 10 nmol/L at every gestation week. In the subgroup analysis, median serum progesterone concentration in women with ongoing pregnancy at 16 weeks gestation demonstrated a linearly increasing trend from 5 to 13 weeks gestation. There was a marginal and non-significant increase in serum progesterone from 19.0 to 30.3 nmol/L from 5 to 13 weeks gestation in women who eventually had a spontaneous miscarriage.

Conclusions

Serum progesterone concentration increased linearly with gestational age from 5 to 13 weeks in women with normal pregnancies. Women with spontaneous miscarriage showed a marginal and non-significant increase in serum progesterone. This study highlights the pivotal role of progesterone in supporting an early pregnancy, with lower serum progesterone associated with threatened miscarriage and a subsequent complete miscarriage at 16 weeks gestation.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12884-018-2002-z) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

The randomised controlled trial of micronised progesterone and dydrogesterone (TRoMaD) for threatened miscarriage

There has not been conclusive evidence in literature on the efficacy of progestogen in the treatment of threatened miscarriage, although some studies showed benefits. In our centre, threatened miscarriage is treated with either micronised progesterone (MP) or dydrogesterone (DYD).

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study is to compare clinical outcomes of miscarriage, extent of vaginal bleeding at follow-up and side effects between treatment groups.

STUDY DESIGN

This study was a prospective parallel-group, open-label, randomized controlled trial. 141 women presenting with threatened miscarriage were randomised to either MP or DYD of which 118 were included in the analysis. Baseline maternal demographics and serum progesterone levels were collected at presentation. Post-treatment bleeding pattern and self-reported side effects were recorded at the follow-up visit (on day 4-10 of treatment). The occurrence of spontaneous miscarriage was ascertained at week 16 of gestation.

RESULTS

The population with miscarriage and resolution of bleeding were not statistically different between MP and DYD groups. A significantly higher percentage of women treated with MP reported drowsiness (p = 0.003). After stratification into low and high serum progesterone levels, a significantly higher miscarriage rate was found in the low progesterone group, regardless of treatment type.

CONCLUSION

In conclusion, extent of bleeding at day 4-10 and subsequent miscarriage rates were comparable between MP and DYD groups. However, fewer patients treated with DYD reported drowsiness and giddiness. The finding of significantly higher miscarriage rates in women with low progesterone levels despite treatment is an important factor to consider in counselling and prognosticating pregnancy outcomes.

Spontaneous miscarriage in first trimester pregnancy is associated with altered urinary metabolite profile

Threatened miscarriage is the most common gynecological emergency, occurring in about 20% of pregnant women. Approximately one in four of these patients go on to have spontaneous miscarriage and the etiology of miscarriage still remains elusive. In a bid to identify possible biomarkers and novel treatment targets, many studies have been undertaken to elucidate the pathways that lead to a miscarriage. Luteal phase deficiency has been shown to contribute to miscarriages, and the measurement of serum progesterone as a prognostic marker and the prescription of progesterone supplementation has been proposed as possible diagnostic and treatment methods. However, luteal phase deficiency only accounts for 35% of miscarriages. In order to understand the other causes of spontaneous miscarriage and possible novel urine biomarkers for miscarriage, we looked at the changes in urinary metabolites in women with threatened miscarriage. To this end, we performed a case-control study of eighty patients who presented with threatened miscarriage between 6 and 10 weeks gestation. Urine metabolomics analyses of forty patients with spontaneous miscarriages and forty patients with ongoing pregnancies at 16 weeks gestation point to an impaired placental mitochondrial β-oxidation of fatty acids as the possible cause of spontaneous miscarriage. This study also highlighted the potential of urine metabolites as a non-invasive screening tool for the risk stratification of women presenting with threatened miscarriage.