Prediction of miscarriage in first trimester by serum estradiol, progesterone and β-human chorionic gonadotropin within 9 weeks of gestation

The predictive value of ultrasound markers for pregnancy outcomes in recurrent pregnancy loss: a retrospective study

Establishing prediction models of pregnancy outcomes for recurrent pregnancy loss women at specific gestational weeks will provide patients and physicians with more precise information, ultimately leading to time and cost savings associated with unnecessary revisits. Therefore, our aim was to develop a prediction model for first trimester pregnancy loss in RPL patients. We used ultrasound indices during the first trimester of pregnancy in combination with demographic characteristics and commonly used serum markers. The independent risk factors for each week were as follows: age and P in the fifth week; age, mGSD and CRL in the sixth week; age, hCG and CRL in the seventh week; CRL in the eighth week; mGSD and CRL in ninth week. The corresponding AUC was 0.671, 0.796, 0.872, 0.871, 0.813, respectively. There is a linear relationship between age and first trimester pregnancy loss. hCG < 69,636.6 mIU/ml was associated with a higher risk of pregnancy loss in the seventh gestation week. An mGSD < 18.3 mm, adjusted for age, BMI, and previous pregnancy loss in the sixth week, was linked to an increased risk of first trimester pregnancy loss. A small CRL measurement (less than 2.4 mm, 9.9 mm, 16.9 mm, and 18.6 mm) in the sixth, seventh, eighth and ninth week was closely correlated with higher risk of first trimester pregnancy loss. Furthermore, an mGSD < 33.3 mm and > 48.3 mm in ninth gestational week was associated with a higher risk of pregnancy loss. These models and thresholds may help physicians and patients make more informed decisions together. Further studies are needed to confirm the results.

HCV Antiviral Drugs Have the Potential to Adversely Perturb the Fetal-Maternal Communication Axis through Inhibition of CYP3A7 DHEA-S Oxidation

The hepatitis C virus (HCV) poses a great risk to pregnant people and their developing fetus, yet no HCV antiviral treatment guidelines have been established. While there has been a substantial increase in the development of HCV antivirals, the effect they have on the developing fetus remains poorly defined. Many of these drugs are metabolized through the cytochrome P450 CYP3A pathway, which is mediated by cytochrome P450 3A7 (CYP3A7) in the fetus and developing infant. In this study, we sought to investigate the effect HCV antivirals have on CYP3A7 metabolism, as this CYP enzyme plays a vital role in proper fetal and neonatal development. Of the 13 HCV antivirals we investigated, 8 (∼62%) inhibited CYP3A7 metabolic activity by 50% or more at a concentration of 20 µM. Furthermore, paritaprevir, asunaprevir, simeprevir, danoprevir, and glecaprevir all had observed half-maximal inhibitory concentrations between the range of 10 and 20 µM, which is physiologically relevant in comparison with the Km of dehydroepiandrosterone-sulfate (DHEA-S) oxidation (reported to be between 5 and 20 µM). We also discovered that paritaprevir is a time-dependent inhibitor of CYP3A7, which shifts the IC50 ∼twofold from 11 µM to 5 µM. Upon further characterization, paritaprevir inactivates DHEA-S metabolism by CYP3A7, with KI and Kinact values of 4.66 µM and 0.00954 minute-1, respectively. Depending on treatment plan and off-label drug use, HCV treatment could adversely affect the fetal-maternal communication axis by blocking fetal CYP3A7 metabolism of important endogenous hormones. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT: The prevalence of HCV in pregnant people is estimated at between 1% and 8% of the global population, yet little to no information exists about the risk antiviral treatment poses to the developing fetus. There is a potential risk of drugs adversely affecting mother-fetal communication by inhibiting fetal hepatic CYP3A7, an integral enzyme for estriol production. We discovered that five HCV antivirals inhibited DHEA-S metabolism by CYP3A7, and paritaprevir inactivated the enzyme. Our studies demonstrate the potential threat these drugs pose to proper fetal development.

The Relationship Between the Average Decreased Times of Estradiol and Early Miscarriage: An Observational Study

Decreased estradiol (E2) levels are associated with early miscarriage (EM), but the relationship between decreased times of E2 and EM has not been reported. We aimed to investigate the relationship between the average decreased times of E2 (ADTE) and EM. Women with a history of miscarriage were retrospectively recruited from the Reproductive Center of Lanzhou University Second Hospital (Lanzhou, China) between September 2019 and February 2022. Based on pregnancy outcome, they were divided into ongoing pregnancy group (n = 359) and EM group (n = 104). In addition, subgroup analyses were performed for the number of previous miscarriages and whether E2 levels decreased continuously. The exposure and outcome variables were ADTE and miscarriage before 12 weeks of gestation, respectively. Totally, 1171 patients were recruited and 463 patients were finally analyzed. ADTE was associated with EM (odds ratio [OR] = 1.346, 95% confidence interval [CI]1.154-1.571, P < 0.001). When ADTE ≥ 2.5, the EM risk increased 1.17-fold compared to patients with 0-1.249 times (OR = 2.170, 95% CI 1.144-4.117, P = 0.018). Moreover, a threshold effect existed in the ADTE and the risk of EM with a value of 4.9 times. When exceeding 4.9 times, the EM risk increased 4.713-fold for each increased unit (OR = 5.713, 95% CI 1.255-23.170, P = 0.024). Subgroup analysis showed that ADTE had a greater effect on the occurrence of EM in women with a history of 1-2 miscarriages than in women with 3 miscarriages. Decreased E2 was a risk factor for EM regardless of whether it dropped continuously or not. In conclusion, our study identifies a potential link between ADTE and early miscarriage risk in women with prior miscarriages, yet cautious interpretation is necessary due to inherent design limitations. Further research with prospective designs and large population samples is essential to validate ADTE's utility as a predictive indicator for early miscarriage in clinical settings.

Environmental copper exposure, placental cuproptosis, and miscarriage

Copper pollution has become global environmental concern. Widespread Cu pollution results in excessive Cu exposure in human. Epidemiological studies and animal experiments revealed that Cu exposure might have reproductive toxicity. Cuproptosis is a newly reported Cu-dependent and programmed cell death formTsvetkov et al., 2022. However, whether copper exposure at real environmental exposure dose might cause placental cuproptosis and induce miscarriage was completely unexplored. In this study, we found that Cu exposure during pregnancy induced miscarriage or complete pregnancy loss by inducing placenta cuproptosis in CuCl2-exposed pregnant mice. Notably, Cu exposure at 1.3 mg/kg/d (a real environmental exposure dose) was enough to cause placenta cuproptosis. CuCl2 exposure disrupts the TCA cycle, causes proteotoxic stress, increases Cu2+ ion import/decreases Cu2+ export, and results in the loss of Fe-S cluster proteins in mouse placenta, which induces placenta cuproptosis. Moreover, we also identified that Cu exposure down-regulates the expression levels of mmu-miR-3473b, which interacts with Dlst or Rtel1 mRNA and simultaneously positively regulates Dlst or Rtel1 expression, thereby disrupting the TCA cycle and resulting in the loss of Fe-S cluster proteins, and thus epigenetically regulates placental cuproptosis. Treatment with TTM (a cuproptosis inhibitor) suppressed placental cuproptosis and alleviated miscarriage in CuCl2-exposed mice. This work provides novel reproductive toxicity of Cu exposure in miscarriage or complete pregnancy loss by causing placental cuproptosis. This study also provides new ways for further studies on other toxicological effects of Cu and proposes a new approach for protection against Cu-induced reproductive diseases.

Exploring Progesterone Deficiency in First-Trimester Miscarriage and the Impact of Hormone Therapy on Foetal Development: A Scoping Review

Background and Objectives: Progesterone deficiency during pregnancy may lead to various complications, including first-trimester miscarriage, which is the most common pregnancy complication. However, progesterone therapy may play a role in pregnancy maintenance and foetal development. The aim of this scoping review is to present evidence on the link between progesterone deficiency and first-trimester miscarriage among pregnant women and assess the impact of progesterone therapy on foetal development. Methods: A comprehensive global systematic search of mainly primary research studies was conducted using several databases. Peer-reviewed studies published between 2010 and 2023 were included. The scoping review was conducted using the framework outlined by the Joanna Briggs Institute (JBI) and reported using the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses-Extension for Scoping Reviews (PRISMA-ScR) statement. Results: Twenty-three articles (which included 35,862 participants) were included in the analysis. Most studies were conducted in mid- to high-income countries. All 23 articles reported a significant positive relationship between progesterone deficiency and first-trimester miscarriage. Furthermore, the majority of studies reported a higher risk of miscarriage when lower levels of progesterone are combined with other declined hormones. While most studies reported that progesterone therapy may reduce the rate of first-trimester miscarriage among pregnant women, no evidence of health-related harm to offspring development was reported. Conclusions: The findings from this systematic-scoping review indicate possible benefits of progesterone replacement therapy in maintaining a healthy pregnancy and foetal development. Rigorous studies that include large sample sizes and systematic reviews are required to confirm these findings further.

Successful pregnancy using oral DHEA treatment for hypoandrogenemia in a 30-year-old female with 5 recurrent miscarriages, including fetal demise at 24 weeks: a case report

Hypoandrogenemia is not usually considered as a potential cause of recurrent miscarriage. We present the case of a 30-year-old female with 6 previous pregnancies resulting in one live birth and 5 pregnancy losses, including fetal demise at 24 weeks gestation. She had standard investigations after her 4th loss, at a specialized miscarriage clinic. Lupus anticoagulant, anticardiolipin antibodies, thyroid function, parental karyotypes were all normal. Fetal products confirmed triploidy for her 4th miscarriage at 16 weeks gestation. She was reassured and advised to conceive again but had fetal demise after 24 weeks gestation. This was her 5th pregnancy loss with no explanation. She attended our Restorative Reproductive Medicine (RRM) clinic in January 2022. In addition to poor follicle function, we found hypoandrogenemia for the first time. Treatment included follicle stimulation with clomiphene and DHEA 25 mg twice daily pre-conception with DHEA 20 mg once daily maintained throughout pregnancy. She delivered a healthy baby boy by cesarean section at 36 weeks gestation in November 2023. Hypoandrogenemia should be considered as a contributory factor for women with recurrent miscarriage or late pregnancy loss. Restoration of androgens to normal levels with oral DHEA is safe and can improve pregnancy outcome.

Risks and outcomes of pregnancy in neuromyelitis optica spectrum disorder: A comprehensive review

Neuromyelitis optica spectrum disorder (NMOSD) is a rare central nervous system autoimmune disease. Aquaporin-4 antibody (AQP4-IgG) is present in over 75% of cases and criteria also exist for the diagnosis of seronegative NMOSD. AQP4-IgG NMOSD has a strong female predominance (9:1 ratio), with a median onset age of 40 years. Pregnancy in those with NMOSD is therefore an important topic. Fecundity in NMOSD is likely impaired, and for females who conceive, obstetric complications including miscarriages and pre-eclampsia are significantly higher in NMOSD compared to the general population and in related conditions such as multiple sclerosis (MS). In contrast to MS, NMOSD disease activity does not subside during pregnancy. Also, relapse risk substantially rises above pre-pregnancy rates in the early postpartum period. In view of the evolving landscape of NMOSD, we provide a contemporary update of the impacts of pregnancy in NMOSD.

Restoration of serum estradiol and reduced incidence of miscarriage in patients with low serum estradiol during pregnancy: a retrospective cohort study using a multifactorial protocol including DHEA

Background

Low serum estradiol in early pregnancy is associated with an elevated risk of miscarriage. We sought to determine whether efforts to restore low blood estradiol via estradiol or dehydroepiandrosterone (DHEA) supplementation would reduce the risk of miscarriage as part of a multifactorial symptom-based treatment protocol.

Methods

This retrospective cohort study included women with low serum estradiol levels in early pregnancy, defined as ≤50% of reference levels by gestational age. Estradiol or DHEA were administered orally, and the primary outcome measure was serum estradiol level, in reference to gestational age. The secondary outcome measures included miscarriage, birth weight, and gestational age at birth.

Results

We found no significant effect of estradiol supplementation on serum estradiol levels referenced to gestational age, while DHEA supplementation strongly increased estradiol levels. For pregnancies with low estradiol, the miscarriage rate in the non-supplemented group was 45.5%, while miscarriage rate in the estradiol and DHEA supplemented groups were 21.2% (p = 0.067) and 17.5% (p = 0.038), respectively. Birth weight, size, gestational age, and preterm deliveries were not significantly different. No sexual abnormalities were reported in children (n = 29) of DHEA-supplemented patients after 5-7 years follow-up.

Conclusions

In conclusion, DHEA supplementation restored serum estradiol levels, and when included in the treatment protocol, there was a statistically significant reduction in miscarriage.

Molecular Determinants of Uterine Receptivity: Comparison of Successful Implantation, Recurrent Miscarriage, and Recurrent Implantation Failure

Embryo implantation is one of the most remarkable phenomena in human reproduction and is not yet fully understood. Proper endometrial function as well as a dynamic interaction between the endometrium itself and the blastocyst-the so-called embryo-maternal dialog-are necessary for successful implantation. Several physiological and molecular processes are involved in the success of implantation. This review describes estrogen, progesterone and their receptors, as well as the role of the cytokines interleukin (IL)-6, IL-8, leukemia inhibitory factor (LIF), IL-11, IL-1, and the glycoprotein glycodelin in successful implantation, in cases of recurrent implantation failure (RIF) and in cases of recurrent pregnancy loss (RPL). Are there differences at the molecular level underlying RIF or RPL? Since implantation has already taken place in the case of RPL, it is conceivable that different molecular biological baseline situations underlie the respective problems.

Progesterone-mediated immunoregulation of cytokine signaling by miRNA-133a and 101-3p in Chlamydia trachomatis-associated recurrent spontaneous abortion

miRNAs regulate the expression of various genes involved in cellular and metabolic pathways in pregnancy related complications including recurrent spontaneous abortion (RSA). Modulation of progesterone and associated pro-inflammatory cytokines by miRNAs in Chlamydia trachomatis-associated RSA is still under investigation. Present study aimed to evaluate the expression/correlation of serum-circulating miRNAs-133a, 101-3p, 320b, 146b-5p, 24, 559, progesterone and few cytokines in C. trachomatis-positive spontaneous aborters. Non-heparinized blood and urine was collected from 120 patients with history of RSA (Group I) and 120 patients with ≥ 2 successful deliveries (Group II) attending Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Safdarjung hospital, New Delhi, India. C. trachomatis detection was performed by PCR and chlamydial load by real time PCR. Progesterone concentration was estimated by ELISA. miRNAs and cytokine expression was studied by quantitative real-time PCR and correlated with progesterone expression. Twenty six patients were found to be positive for C. trachomatis. miRNAs- 133a, 101-3p showed maximum upregulation in infected versus control patients. miRNA expression showed positive correlation with chlamydial load. Progesterone concentration showed significant decrease while cytokines (IL-6, IFN-γ, TNF-α) were significantly upregulated in C. trachomatis-positive patients. Positive correlation was observed between expression of miRNAs-133a and 101-3p and cytokines while negative correlation was observed with progesterone in infected RSA patients. Correlation between progesterone and cytokines was found to be significantly negative in infected RSA patients. Although further validation is required, the study concludes that miR-133a and 101-3p are of clinical importance and have a role in immunoregulation of progesterone and cytokines in infection associated RSA.

A Novel Approach to Predicting Early Pregnancy Outcomes Dynamically in a Prospective Cohort Using Repeated Ultrasound and Serum Biomarkers

This study aimed to develop a dynamic model for predicting outcome during the first trimester of pregnancy using baseline demographic data and serially collected blood samples and transvaginal sonographies. A prospective cohort of 203 unselected women with an assumed healthy pregnancy of < 8 weeks' gestation was followed fortnightly from 4-14 weeks' gestation until either miscarriage or confirmed first trimester viability. The main outcome was development of a model to predict outcome from gestational age-dependent hazard ratios using both baseline and updated serial data from each visit. Secondary outcomes were descriptions of risk factors for miscarriage. The results showed that 18% of the women experienced miscarriages. A fetal heart rate detected before 8 weeks' gestation indicated a 90% (95% CI 85-95%) chance of subsequent delivery. Maternal age (≥ 35 years), insufficient crown-rump-length (CRL) and mean gestational sac diameter (MSD) development, and presence of bleeding increased the risk of miscarriage. Serum biomarkers, including hCG, progesterone, and estradiol, were found to impact the risk of miscarriage with estradiol as the most important. The best model to predict miscarriage was a combination of maternal age, vaginal bleeding, CRL, and hCG. The second-best model was the sonography-absent model of maternal age, bleeding, hCG, and estradiol. This study suggests that combining maternal age, and evolving data from hCG, estradiol, CRL, and bleeding could be used to predict fetal outcome during the first trimester of pregnancy.Trial registration ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT02761772.

The pathophysiological role of estrogens in the initial stages of pregnancy: molecular mechanisms and clinical implications for pregnancy outcome from the periconceptional period to end of the first trimester

BACKGROUND

Estrogens regulate disparate female physiological processes, thus ensuring reproduction. Altered estrogen levels and signaling have been associated with increased risks of pregnancy failure and complications, including hypertensive disorders and low birthweight babies. However, the role of estrogens in the periconceptional period and early pregnancy is still understudied.

OBJECTIVE AND RATIONALE

This review aims to summarize the current evidence on the role of maternal estrogens during the periconceptional period and the first trimester of pregnancies conceived naturally and following ART. Detailed molecular mechanisms and related clinical impacts are extensively described.

SEARCH METHODS

Data for this narrative review were independently identified by seven researchers on Pubmed and Embase databases. The following keywords were selected: 'estrogens' OR 'estrogen level(s)' OR 'serum estradiol' OR 'estradiol/estrogen concentration', AND 'early pregnancy' OR 'first trimester of pregnancy' OR 'preconceptional period' OR 'ART' OR 'In Vitro Fertilization (IVF)' OR 'Embryo Transfer' OR 'Frozen Embryo Transfer' OR 'oocyte donation' OR 'egg donation' OR 'miscarriage' OR 'pregnancy outcome' OR 'endometrium'.

OUTCOMES

During the periconceptional period (defined here as the critical time window starting 1 month before conception), estrogens play a crucial role in endometrial receptivity, through the activation of paracrine/autocrine signaling. A derailed estrogenic milieu within this period seems to be detrimental both in natural and ART-conceived pregnancies. Low estrogen levels are associated with non-conception cycles in natural pregnancies. On the other hand, excessive supraphysiologic estrogen concentrations at time of the LH peak correlate with lower live birth rates and higher risks of pregnancy complications. In early pregnancy, estrogen plays a massive role in placentation mainly by modulating angiogenic factor expression-and in the development of an immune-tolerant uterine micro-environment by remodeling the function of uterine natural killer and T-helper cells. Lower estrogen levels are thought to trigger abnormal placentation in naturally conceived pregnancies, whereas an estrogen excess seems to worsen pregnancy development and outcomes.

WIDER IMPLICATIONS

Most current evidence available endorses a relation between periconceptional and first trimester estrogen levels and pregnancy outcomes, further depicting an optimal concentration range to optimize pregnancy success. However, how estrogens co-operate with other factors in order to maintain a fine balance between local tolerance towards the developing fetus and immune responses to pathogens remains elusive. Further studies are highly warranted, also aiming to identify the determinants of estrogen response and biomarkers for personalized estrogen administration regimens in ART.

Effect of short-term ambient air pollution exposure on early miscarriage and pregnancy hormones with critical window identification

BACKGROUND

Pregnancy hormones are particularly important in early miscarriage, and some evidence suggests that exposure to air pollution is associated with pregnancy hormones and miscarriage. However, the effects of air pollution on pregnancy hormone-mediated miscarriages have not yet been investigated.

METHODS

We collected air pollution exposure measurements and pregnancy hormone tests from the participants. Logistic regression models were used to investigate the association between air pollution and early miscarriages. A distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) was used to investigate non-linear and delayed associations and identify the crucial window. We performed mediation analysis to estimate the potential association that may exist between pregnancy hormone levels and early miscarriage.

RESULTS

Short-term exposure to CO and SO2 was associated with early miscarriage. Lag 22-28 days of exposure to both CO and SO2 and lag 15-21 days of exposure to CO were significantly positively associated with early miscarriage, with an obvious exposure dose response. Serum progesterone concentration explained 36.79 % of the association between lag 15-28 days of CO exposure and early miscarriage.

CONCLUSION

This study provides evidence for the association between short-term exposure to air pollution and early miscarriage, and provides clues for further exploration of biological mechanisms.

The effect of maternal obesity and lipid profile on first-trimester serum progesterone levels

BACKGROUND

Prepregnancy overweight increases the risk of adverse perinatal outcomes. Maternal lipid profile plays a key role in the production of pregnancy hormones. The influence that obesity has on the specific mechanisms that may be involved and the potential associations with abnormal conditions in pregnancy are still poorly understood.

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to evaluate the effect of maternal body mass index and lipid profile on first-trimester serum progesterone levels.

STUDY DESIGN

This was a prospective cohort study including 734 pregnant people. First-trimester maternal serum progesterone, cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and triglycerides were measured between 9 and 11 weeks' gestation. Free β-hCG, PAPP-A, age, body mass index, smoking status, gestational age at delivery, fetal sex, and birthweight were also recorded. Pregnant people were classified according to their body mass index into underweight (n=21), normal weight (n=395), overweight (n=221), obesity class I (n=64), and obesity class II/III (n=33) groups.

RESULTS

Gestational age at sampling was 10.0 4±1.12 weeks. Serum progesterone levels decreased as maternal body mass index increased (35.84±12.00 ng/mL, 33.08±11.27 ng/mL, 28.04±8.91 ng/mL, 24.37±8.56 ng/mL, and 19.87±11.00 mL for underweight, normal weight, overweight, obesity class I, and obesity class II/III groups, respectively; P<.000001). There were statistically significant negative correlations between maternal progesterone and body mass index, triglycerides, and cholesterol/high-density lipoprotein cholesterol ratio, and positive correlations with gestational age at sampling, maternal age, cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, crown-rump length, free β-hCG, and PAPP-A. Linear regression showed that the only independent predictor variables for progesterone levels were body mass index (P<.0001), PAPP-A (P<.0001), high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (P<.0001), and free β-hCG (P<.0001) (R2=0.33; P<.0000001).

CONCLUSION

First-trimester serum progesterone levels were lower in overweight pregnant people and markedly decreased in those with obesity, especially obesity class II/III. Maternal high-density lipoprotein cholesterol was independently related to progesterone levels as a protective factor. Benefits of progesterone supplementation in pregnant people with obesity need further evaluation.

First-Trimester Screening for Miscarriage or Stillbirth-Prediction Model Based on MicroRNA Biomarkers

We evaluated the potential of cardiovascular-disease-associated microRNAs to predict in the early stages of gestation (from 10 to 13 gestational weeks) the occurrence of a miscarriage or stillbirth. The gene expressions of 29 microRNAs were studied retrospectively in peripheral venous blood samples derived from singleton Caucasian pregnancies diagnosed with miscarriage (n = 77 cases; early onset, n = 43 cases; late onset, n = 34 cases) or stillbirth (n = 24 cases; early onset, n = 13 cases; late onset, n = 8 cases; term onset, n = 3 cases) and 80 selected gestational-age-matched controls (normal term pregnancies) using real-time RT-PCR. Altered expressions of nine microRNAs (upregulation of miR-1-3p, miR-16-5p, miR-17-5p, miR-26a-5p, miR-146a-5p, and miR-181a-5p and downregulation of miR-130b-3p, miR-342-3p, and miR-574-3p) were observed in pregnancies with the occurrence of a miscarriage or stillbirth. The screening based on the combination of these nine microRNA biomarkers revealed 99.01% cases at a 10.0% false positive rate (FPR). The predictive model for miscarriage only was based on the altered gene expressions of eight microRNA biomarkers (upregulation of miR-1-3p, miR-16-5p, miR-17-5p, miR-26a-5p, miR-146a-5p, and miR-181a-5p and downregulation of miR-130b-3p and miR-195-5p). It was able to identify 80.52% cases at a 10.0% FPR. Highly efficient early identification of later occurrences of stillbirth was achieved via the combination of eleven microRNA biomarkers (upregulation of miR-1-3p, miR-16-5p, miR-17-5p, miR-20a-5p, miR-146a-5p, and miR-181a-5p and downregulation of miR-130b-3p, miR-145-5p, miR-210-3p, miR-342-3p, and miR-574-3p) or, alternatively, by the combination of just two upregulated microRNA biomarkers (miR-1-3p and miR-181a-5p). The predictive power achieved 95.83% cases at a 10.0% FPR and, alternatively, 91.67% cases at a 10.0% FPR. The models based on the combination of selected cardiovascular-disease-associated microRNAs had very high predictive potential for miscarriages or stillbirths and may be implemented in routine first-trimester screening programs.

The addition of dydrogesterone improves the outcomes of pregnant women with low progesterone levels when receiving vaginal progesterone alone as luteal support in HRT‐FET cycles

Purpose

Vaginal progesterone (VP) alone has been used as luteal support (LS) in HRT‐FET cycles without measuring serum progesterone concentrations (SPC) because it can achieve adequate intrauterine progesterone levels. However, several reports showed that the co‐administration of progestin produced better outcomes than VP alone. We tried to address this discrepancy, focusing on SPC.

Methods

VP was given to 180 women undergoing HRT‐FET. We measured SPC when pregnancy was diagnosed on day 14 of LS. We compared assisted reproductive technology outcomes between VP alone versus VP + dydrogesterone (D).

Results

When using VP alone, average SPC in the miscarriage cases (9.6 ng/mL) were significantly lower compared with the ongoing pregnancy (OP) cases (14.7 ng/mL). The cut‐off value for progesterone, 10.7 ng/mL, was a good predictor for the subsequent course of the pregnancy. Of 76 women receiving D ± VP from the start of LS and achieving a pregnancy, the numbers of OP were 44 (84.6%) in SPC ≥ 10.7 ng/mL and 20 (83.3%) in SPC ≤ 10.7 ng/mL with no significant difference.

Conclusion

VP alone resulted in lower SPC in some pregnant women in HRT‐FET cycles and exhibited a lower OP rate. The co‐administration of D improved an OP rate of low progesterone cases to the level comparable with non‐low progesterone cases.

A mathematical model to predict the probability of a successful pregnancy

AIM

To develop a scoring system for the prediction of a successful pregnancy.

METHODS

Data were collected prospectively from women diagnosed with pregnancy from January 1, 2015, to December 31, 2018. Pregnant days, hormone levels, and gestational sac diameters were recorded. Relationships among the pregnancy days, hormones, and gestational sac were analyzed by Spearman correlation analysis. A scoring system was established and stratified by the 5th, 50th, and 95th percentile of hormone levels and gestational sac diameters on different pregnancy days. Pregnancy outcomes were predicted by the scores using quadratic polynomial regression analyses. A portable desktop analyzer was developed and the performance was evaluated by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve.

RESULTS

In 273 successful pregnancy cases, the length of gestational days was significantly correlated to beta-human chorionic gonadotropin (β-hCG) (r = 0.74, p < 0.001) and E₂ (r = 0.79, p < 0.001) levels, and the size of the gestational sac (r = 0.88, p < 0.001). Meanwhile, the size of gestational sac was positively correlated with β-hCG (r = 0.93, p < 0.001) and E₂ (r = 0.55, p < 0.001). For 273 delivery and 103 miscarriage cases included in this study, our scoring-based prediction model rendered an area under the ROC curve (AUC) of 0.86 with the sensitivity of 78.31% and the specificity of 80.83%.

CONCLUSIONS

We successfully developed a scoring-based analyzer to evaluate the viability of embryos at different gestation stages and to predict the probability of a successful delivery, which would provide a reference for clinicians in postpregnancy management.