Neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio and scoring system for predicting coronary artery lesions of Kawasaki disease

[Predictive indicators and risk model construction for coronary artery lesions in Kawasaki disease children over 5 years old]

OBJECTIVES

To study predictive indicators for coronary artery lesions (CAL) and construct a risk prediction model for CAL in Kawasaki disease (KD) children over 5 years old.

METHODS

A retrospective analysis of KD children over 5 years old at Wuhan Children's Hospital of Tongji Medical College of Huazhong University of Science and Technology from January 2018 to January 2023 was conducted. Among them, 47 cases were complicated with CAL, and 178 cases were not. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to explore predictive indicators for CAL in KD children over 5 years old and construct a risk prediction model. The receiver operating characteristic curve was used to evaluate the effectiveness of the prediction model. Finally, the Framingham risk scoring method was used to quantify the predictive indicators, calculate the contribution of each indicator to the prediction of CAL in KD children over 5 years old, and construct a risk prediction scoring model.

RESULTS

The multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that the duration of fever before the initial intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIG) treatment (OR=1.374, 95%CI: 1.117-1.689), levels of hypersensitive C-reactive protein (hs-CRP; OR=1.008, 95%CI: 1.001-1.015), and serum ferritin levels (OR=1.002, 95%CI: 1.001-1.003) were predictive indicators for CAL in KD children over 5 years old. The optimal cutoff values for predicting CAL were: duration of fever before initial IVIG treatment of 6.5 days (AUC=0.654, 95%CI: 0.565-0.744), hs-CRP of 110.50 mg/L (AUC=0.686, 95%CI: 0.597-0.774), and ferritin of 313.62 mg/L (AUC=0.724, 95%CI: 0.642-0.805). According to the Framingham risk scoring method, the low, medium, and high-risk states of CAL occurrence were defined as probabilities of <10%, 10%-20%, and >20%, respectively, with corresponding scores of 0-4 points, 5-6 points, and ≥7 points.

CONCLUSIONS

In KD children over 5 years old, those with a longer duration of fever before initial IVIG treatment, higher levels of hs-CRP, or elevated serum ferritin levels are more likely to develop CAL.

A prediction model for coronary artery abnormalities in children with Kawasaki disease older than 5 years

OBJECTIVE

Reliably prediction models for coronary artery abnormalities (CAA) in children aged >5 years with Kawasaki disease (KD) are still lacking. This study aimed to develop a nomogram model for predicting CAA at 4 to 8 weeks of illness in children with KD older than 5 years.

METHODS

A total of 644 eligible children were randomly assigned to a training cohort (n = 450) and a validation cohort (n = 194). The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) analysis was used for optimal predictors selection, and multivariate logistic regression was used to develop a nomogram model based on the selected predictors. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), calibration curves, Hosmer-Lemeshow test, Brier score, and decision curve analysis (DCA) were used to assess model performance.

RESULTS

Neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio, intravenous immunoglobulin resistance, and maximum baseline z-score ≥ 2.5 were identified by LASSO as significant predictors. The model incorporating these variables showed good discrimination and calibration capacities in both training and validation cohorts. The AUC of the training cohort and validation cohort were 0.854 and 0.850, respectively. The DCA confirmed the clinical usefulness of the nomogram model.

CONCLUSIONS

A novel nomogram model was established to accurately assess the risk of CAA at 4-8 weeks of onset among KD children older than 5 years, which may aid clinical decision-making.

Exploring systemic inflammation in children with chronic kidney disease: correlates of interleukin 6

BACKGROUND

Systemic inflammation (SI) is linked to chronic kidney disease (CKD) progression and multiple complications. Data regarding SI biomarkers in pediatric patients are scarce. This case-control and cross-sectional study investigates the correlation of neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), platelet-lymphocyte ratio (PLR), total iron binding capacity (TIBC) and serum albumin to serum interleukin-6 (IL-6).

METHODS

NLR and PLR were measured in 53 patients (median age: 12.9 years), including 17 on dialysis and 36 with a median glomerular filtration rate of 39 ml/min/1.73m2, and in 25 age and sex-matched healthy controls. Iron profile, serum albumin and IL-6 were measured in the patient group. IL-6 levels > 3rd quartile were classified as high.

RESULTS

Patients presented higher NLR and PLR and particularly those on dialysis (p < 0.001 and p = 0.001). We observed a significant correlation between natural logarithm (ln) of IL-6 (lnIL-6) and NLR (rs = 0.344, p = 0.014), serum albumin (rs = -0.350, p = 0.011) and TIBC (rs = -0.345, p = 0.012) after adjustment for CKD stage, while the correlation between lnIL-6 and PLR was not significant (rs = 0.206, p = 0.151). Combination of NLR, serum albumin and TIBC predicted high IL-6 (13 patients) with an AUC of 0.771 (95% CI 0.608-0.943). Pairing of NLR ≥ 1.7 and TIBC ≤ 300 μg/dL exhibited the highest sensitivity (76.9%), while incorporating serum albumin ≤ 3.8 g/dL along with them achieved the highest specificity (95%) for detecting high IL-6 levels.

CONCLUSION

Both NLR and PLR levels increase in CKD, especially in patients on chronic dialysis. NLR, rather than PLR, along with TIBC and serum albumin, are associated with IL-6 in pediatric CKD.

Prediction of coronary artery lesions in children with Kawasaki syndrome based on machine learning

OBJECTIVE

Kawasaki syndrome (KS) is an acute vasculitis that affects children < 5 years of age and leads to coronary artery lesions (CAL) in about 20-25% of untreated cases. Machine learning (ML) is a branch of artificial intelligence (AI) that integrates complex data sets on a large scale and uses huge data to predict future events. The purpose of the present study was to use ML to present the model for early risk assessment of CAL in children with KS by different algorithms.

METHODS

A total of 158 children were enrolled from Women and Children's Hospital, Qingdao University, and divided into 70-30% as the training sets and the test sets for modeling and validation studies. There are several classifiers are constructed for models including the random forest (RF), the logistic regression (LR), and the eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost). Data preprocessing is analyzed before applying the classifiers to modeling. To avoid the problem of overfitting, the 5-fold cross validation method was used throughout all the data.

RESULTS

The area under the curve (AUC) of the RF model was 0.925 according to the validation of the test set. The average accuracy was 0.930 (95% CI, 0.905 to 0.956). The AUC of the LG model was 0.888 and the average accuracy was 0.893 (95% CI, 0,837 to 0.950). The AUC of the XGBoost model was 0.879 and the average accuracy was 0.935 (95% CI, 0.891 to 0.980).

CONCLUSION

The RF algorithm was used in the present study to construct a prediction model for CAL effectively, with an accuracy of 0.930 and AUC of 0.925. The novel model established by ML may help guide clinicians in the initial decision to make a more aggressive initial anti-inflammatory therapy. Due to the limitations of external validation and regional population characteristics, additional research is required to initiate a further application in the clinic.

Using nomogram scores to predict the early regression of coronary artery aneurysms of Kawasaki disease

BACKGROUND

Coronary artery aneurysms have been considered the most serious complication of Kawasaki disease. However, some coronary artery aneurysms do regress. Therefore, the ability to predict the expected time of coronary artery aneurysm regression is critical. Herein, we have created a nomogram prediction system to determine the early regression (<1 month) among patients with small to medium coronary artery aneurysms.

METHODS

Seventy-six Kawasaki disease patients identified with coronary artery aneurysms during the acute or subacute phase were included. All the patients who met inclusion criteria demonstrated regression of coronary artery aneurysms within the first-year post Kawasaki disease diagnosis. The clinical and laboratory parameters were compared between the groups of coronary artery aneurysms regression duration within and beyond 1 month. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to identify the independent parameters for early regression based on the results from the univariable analysis. Then nomogram prediction systems were established with associated receiver operating characteristic curves.

RESULTS

Among the 76 included patients, 40 cases recovered within 1 month. Haemoglobin, globulin, activated partial thromboplastin time, the number of lesions, location of the aneurysm, and coronary artery aneurysm size were identified as independent factors for early regression of coronary artery aneurysms in Kawasaki disease patients. The predictive nomogram models revealed a high efficacy in predicting early regression of coronary artery aneurysms.

CONCLUSION

The size of coronary artery aneurysms, the number of lesions, and the location of aneurysms presented better predictive value for predicting coronary artery aneurysms regression. The nomogram system created from the identified risk factors successfully predicted early coronary artery aneurysm regression.

Nomogram for predicting coronary artery lesions in patients with Kawasaki disease

BACKGROUND

Coronary artery lesions are the most important complications of Kawasaki disease. Approximately 25-30% of untreated patients develop coronary artery disease, which can lead to long-term cardiovascular sequelae.

AIM

The aim of this study is to evaluate the risk factors for coronary artery lesions in Kawasaki disease and to construct a nomogram for predicting the likelihood of developing such lesions.

METHODS

Data from 599 patients between January 2012 and June 2020 were reviewed retrospectively. Patients were randomly assigned to the training set (n = 450) and the validation set (n = 149). A comparison of clinical features and laboratory data was performed, followed by multivariate logistic regression analysis to identify independent risk factors and develop the nomogram. The predictive efficiency of the nomogram was evaluated using the calibration curve, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), C-index, and decision curve analysis (DCA).

RESULTS

Intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIG) resistance, delayed IVIG treatment, C-reactive protein, and neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio were identified as independent risk factors for the development of coronary artery lesions. The nomogram was constructed based on these four variables. The calibration curve of the nomogram showed a high degree of agreement between the predicted probability and the actual probability. The AUC of the nomogram in the training and validation set was 0.790 and 0.711, respectively. In addition, DCA revealed that the nomogram provided a significant net benefit, further supporting its clinical utility.

CONCLUSIONS

The constructed nomogram demonstrates a strong and reliable performance in predicting coronary artery lesions, which enables clinicians to make timely and tailored clinical decisions.

Monocyte anisocytosis corresponds with increasing severity of COVID-19 in children

Introduction

Although SARS-CoV-2 infection can lead to severe COVID-19 in children, the role of biomarkers for assessing the risk of progression to severe disease is not well established in the pediatric population. Given the differences in monocyte signatures associated with worsening COVID-19 in adults, we aimed to determine whether monocyte anisocytosis early in the infectious course would correspond with increasing severity of COVID-19 in children.

Methods

We performed a multicenter retrospective study of 215 children with SARS-CoV-2 infection, Multisystem Inflammatory Syndrome in Children (MIS-C), convalescent COVID-19, and healthy age-matched controls to determine whether monocyte anisocytosis, quantified by monocyte distribution width (MDW) on complete blood count, was associated with increasing severity of COVID-19. We performed exploratory analyses to identify other hematologic parameters in the inflammatory signature of pediatric SARS-CoV-2 infection and determine the most effective combination of markers for assessing COVID-19 severity in children.

Results

Monocyte anisocytosis increases with COVID-19 severity and need for hospitalization. Although other inflammatory markers such as lymphocyte count, neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio, C-reactive protein, and cytokines correlate with disease severity, these parameters were not as sensitive as MDW for identifying severe disease in children. An MDW threshold of 23 offers a sensitive marker for severe pediatric COVID-19, with improved accuracy when assessed in combination with other hematologic parameters.

Conclusion

Monocyte anisocytosis corresponds with shifting hematologic profiles and inflammatory markers in children with COVID-19, and MDW serves as a clinically accessible biomarker for severe COVID-19 in children.

Evaluation of Formosa score and diagnostic sensitivity and specificity of four Asian risk scores for predicting intravenous immunoglobulin resistance in Kawasaki disease: a bivariate meta-analysis

Background

In 2016, Lin et al. developed a prediction score of non-responsiveness to intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIG) in patients with Kawasaki disease (KD) (Lin et al., 2016). Various studies have attempted to validate the Formosa score, but inconsistent results have given us new opportunities and challenges. The aim of this meta-analysis is to explore the role of the Formosa score as a risk score in detecting IVIG-resistant KD patients and then compare the pooled sensitivity and specificity of four Asian risk scores, Egami, Formosa, Kobayashi, and Sano risk scores.

Methods

A comprehensive search of Cochrane, Embase, and PubMed was conducted through 20 December 2021, using key terms relevant to the research question "What are the sensitivities and specificities of the four Asian predicting scores, Egami, Formosa, Kobayashi, and Sano, in Kawasaki disease patients with IVIG resistance?" The reference lists of the included studies were manually reviewed to identify pertinent references. A random-effects bivariate model was used to estimate the summary of sensitivity and specificity of the tools.

Results

We found 41 relevant studies of the four Asian risk scores that were eligible to analyze for pooled accuracy. Eleven studies involving 5,169 KD patients reported the diagnostic performance of the Formosa score for the risk of IVIG resistance. The overall performance of the Formosa score was as follows: pooled sensitivity, 0.60 [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.48-0.70]; pooled specificity, 0.59 (95% CI, 0.50-0.68); and area under the hierarchical summary receiver operating characteristic curve, 0.62. The Formosa score exhibited the highest sensitivity 0.76 (95% CI, 0.70-0.82) for detecting IVIG-resistant KD patients among the 21,389 children included in the 41 studies. In terms of specificity estimates, Formosa had the lowest specificity of 0.46 (95% CI, 0.41-0.51).

Conclusion

Patients at high risk for IVIG resistance may receive adjunctive treatment to reduce coronary lesions and thus also cardiovascular morbidity. Among all of the included studies, we found Formosa score to have the best sensitivity (0.76) but unsatisfactory specificity (0.46) for predicting IVIG resistance in Kawasaki disease. In the future, network meta-analysis should also incorporate the accuracy of the new scores after they have undergone a certain degree of validation around the world.

Systematic Review Registration

https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/PROSPERO/, PROSPERO CRD42022341410.

Risk Factors for Coronary Artery Aneurysm in a Chinese Pediatric Population with Kawasaki Disease at Low Risk of Intravenous Immunoglobulin Resistance: A Retrospective Cohort Study

INTRODUCTION

Multiple scoring systems for predicting intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIG) resistance have been developed. Although low-scoring patients with Kawasaki disease (KD) have a favorable prognosis, many develop coronary artery aneurysms (CAAs). Herein, we determined the risk factors for CAA development among patients with KD with low risk of IVIG resistance.

METHODS

We compared 14 scoring systems for predicting IVIG resistance among patients with KD hospitalized from 2003 to 2022. Patients were risk stratified using an optimal scoring system. Association between baseline characteristics and CAA development was assessed within the low-risk group.

RESULTS

Overall, 664 pediatric patients with KD were included; 108 (16.3%) had IVIG resistance, and the Liping scoring system had the highest area under the curve (0.714). According to this system, 444 (66.9%) patients with KD were classified as having low risk of developing IVIG resistance (<5 points). CAA development was significantly associated with male sex (odds ratio [OR], 1.946; 95% CI: 1.015-3.730), age <6 months at fever onset (OR, 3.142; 95% CI: 1.028-9.608), and a baseline maximum Z score of ≥2.72 (OR, 3.451; 95% CI: 2.582-4.612). CAA incidence increased with the number of risk factors, and comparisons with a Kobayashi score of <5 points among patients with KD revealed similar results.

CONCLUSIONS

Predicting the response to IVIG might help further reduce CAA development in patients with KD.

Identifying Kawasaki Disease With a Low Coronary Artery Aneurysm Risk

INTRODUCTION

Kawasaki disease (KD) patients with a high risk of coronary artery aneurysm (CAA) development are well characterized and targeted for intensified primary intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIG) treatment. However, the characteristics of KD patients with a low CAA risk are less well-known.

METHODS

The present study was a secondary analysis of Prospective Observational study on STRAtified treatment with Immunoglobulin plus Steroid Efficacy for Kawasaki disease (Post RAISE), a multicenter, prospective cohort study of KD patients in Japan. The target of the analysis was patients with a Kobayashi score <5 who were predicted to respond to IVIG. The incidence of CAA during the acute phase, the primary outcome, was assessed based on all echocardiographic evaluations performed between week 1 (days 5-9) and month 1 (days 20-50) after the start of primary treatment. Multivariable logistic regression was used to identify the independent risk factors of CAA during the acute phase, based on which a decision tree was created to identify a subpopulation of patients with KD with a low CAA risk.

RESULTS

Multivariate analysis found that a baseline maximum Z score >2.5, age <12 months at fever onset, nonresponsiveness to IVIG, low neutrophils, high platelets and high C-reactive protein were independent predictors of CAA during the acute phase. The decision tree created by using these risk factors identified 679 KD patients who had a low incidence of CAA during the acute phase (4.1%) and no medium or large CAA.

CONCLUSIONS

The present study identified a KD subpopulation with a low CAA risk comprising around a quarter of the entire Post RAISE cohort.

Exploring the diagnostic value of eosinophil-to-lymphocyte ratio to differentiate Kawasaki disease from other febrile diseases based on clinical prediction model

Kawasaki disease (KD) is a febrile disease that affects children under 5 years of age and leads to serious cardiovascular complications such as coronary artery disease. The development of markers that can predict early is important to reduce the under- and misdiagnosis of KD. The aim of this research was to develop a diagnostic predictive model to differentiate Kawasaki disease (KD) from other febrile diseases using eosinophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (ELR) and other biomarkers. We recruited a total of 190 children with KD and 1604 children with other febrile diseases. We retrospectively collected clinical information from the children, which included laboratory data on the day of admission, such as white blood cells (WBC), hemoglobin (HGB), calcitoninogen (PCT), hypersensitive c-reactive protein (CRP), snake prognostic nutritional index (PNI), peripheral blood neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), platelet-lymphocyte ratio (PLR), and ELR. We performed analyses using univariate analysis, multivariate logistic regression, and column line plots, and evaluated the diagnostic parameters of the predictive models. ELR was significantly increased in patients with KD. After multivariate logistic regression, WBC, HGB, CRP, NLR, ELR and PNI were finally included as indicators for constructing the prediction model. The ROC curve analysis suggested that the C-index of the diagnostic prediction model was 0.921. The calibration curve showed good diagnostic performance of the columnar graph model. The cut-off value of ELR alone for KD was 0.04, the area under the ROC curve was 0.809. Kids with KD show highly expressive level of ELR compared to children with febrile disease, which can be used to diagnose KD, and column line graphs constructed together with other indicators can help pediatricians to identify KD more effectively from febrile children.

Development of a nomogram prediction model for early identification of persistent coronary artery aneurysms in kawasaki disease

BACKGROUND

Coronary artery aneurysms (CAA) persistence prediction is critical in evaluating Kawasaki disease (KD). This study established a nomogram prediction system based on potential risk factors for assessing the risk of CAA persistence in a contemporary cohort of patients with KD.

METHODS

This cohort comprised 105 patients with KD who had been diagnosed with CAA during the acute or subacute phase by echocardiography. The follow-up duration was at least 1 year. The clinical and laboratory parameters were compared between the CAA regression and persistence groups. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was used to identify the independent risk factors for CAA persistence, which were subsequently used to build the nomogram predictive model. Decision curve analysis was used to assess the net benefits of different nomogram scores.

RESULTS

Of these patients with CAA, 27.6% of patients presented with persistent lesions. The incidences of CAA persistence were 14.1%, 81.3%, and 100.0% in patients with small, medium, and large aneurysms, respectively. The ratio of neutrophils to lymphocytes, γ-GT, and CAA size at diagnosis were considered as the independent risk factors for CAA persistence in patients with KD. The nomogram predictive models yielded a high capability in predicting CAA persistence, based on either univariable or multivariable analyses-identified parameters, compared with using CAA size as a single predictor.

CONCLUSION

The initial ratio of neutrophils to lymphocytes, γ-GT, and CAA size were the independent risk factors for CAA persistence in patients with KD. Nomogram scores could help elevate predictive efficacy in detecting CAA persistence.

Prognostic nutritional index value in the prognosis of Kawasaki disease with coronary artery lesions

Objectives

The prognostic nutritional index (PNI) is a purported predictor of intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIG) resistance and coronary artery aneurysm (CAA) development in patients with Kawasaki disease (KD). However, limited data exist on CAA regression. This study aimed to confirm whether the PNI is a predictor for CAA persistency in patients with KD.

Methods

This retrospective study grouped 341 patients with KD based on the coronary artery status and time of aneurysm persistence. The clinical and laboratory parameters were compared, and multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed to identify the independent risk factors for persistent CAA. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was further used to assess the predictive values of the PNI in persistent CAA.

Results

Among the study patients, 80 (23.5%) presented with CAA, including CAA persisting for 2 years in 17 patients (5.0%). Patients with CAA were more frequently treated with corticosteroids (p < 0.016). No statistically significant differences were found in the nutritional status and PNI among patients with or without coronary artery lesions, regardless of injury severity. Patients in the persistent CAA group presented with higher rates of overnutrition and showed lower PNI values and a higher incidence of thrombosis than those in the normal group (p < 0.05). The PNI and the maximum Z-score at 1 month of onset were significantly associated with CAA persisting for 2 years and may be used as predictors of persistent CAA. The area under the ROC curve was 0.708 (95% confidence interval, 0.569-0.847), and a 40.2 PNI cutoff yielded a sensitivity and specificity of 41 and 92%, respectively, for predicting CAA persisting for 2 years. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis revealed that the estimated median time of aneurysm persistence was significantly higher in patients with PNI values of ≤40 than in those with PNI values of >40 (hazard ratio, 2.958; 95% confidence interval, 1.601-5.464; p = 0.007). After sampling-time stratification, the PNI differed significantly between patients with and without persistent CAA when sampled on the second (p = 0.040), third (p = 0.028), and fourth days (p = 0.041) following disease onset.

Conclusion

A lower PNI value is an independent risk factor for CAA persisting for 2 years in patients with KD, besides the maximum Z-score at 1 month after onset. Furthermore, the PNI obtained within 4 days from fever onset may possess greater predictive power for patients with persistent CAA.

The relationship between the monocyte-to-lymphocyte ratio and osteoporosis in postmenopausal females with T2DM: A retrospective study in Chinese population

INTRODUCTION

The risk of fragility fractures is increased in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). Many reports indicate that inflammatory and immune responses are associated with osteoporosis and osteopenia. The monocyte-to-lymphocyte ratio (MLR) is a novel potential marker of inflammatory and immune responses. The present study evaluated the associations between the MLR and osteoporosis in postmenopausal females with T2DM.

METHODS

Data were obtained from 281 T2MD postmenopausal females, and divided into three groups: Osteoporosis group, osteopenia group and normal BMD group.

RESULT

Data analyses revealed that the MLR was significantly lower in T2MD postmenopausal females with osteoporosis than in those with osteopenia and normal BMD. Logistic regression showed that the MLR was an independent protective factor for osteoporosis in postmenopausal females with T2DM (odds ratio [OR]: 0.015, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.000-0.772). Based on the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, the MLR for diagnosing osteoporosis in postmenopausal females with T2DM was projected to be 0.1019, an area under the curve of 0.761 (95% CI: 0.685-0.838), a sensitivity of 74.8% and a specificity of 25.9%.

CONCLUSIONS

The MLR have a high efficacy in diagnosis for osteoporosis in postmenopausal females with T2DM. MLR have the potential to be used as diagnosis marker for osteoporosis in postmenopausal females with T2DM.

Kawasaki disease coronary artery lesions prediction with monocyte-to-high-density lipoprotein ratio

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study was to evaluate the predictive value of the monocyte-to-high-density lipoprotein ratio (MHR) in Kawasaki disease (KD) complicated with coronary artery lesions (CALs) and to construct a nomogram prediction model.

METHODS

The medical records of KD inpatients diagnosed in the Department of Pediatrics of Lanzhou University Second Hospital from May 2015 to September 2021 were retrospectively analyzed. ROC curves were applied to evaluate the predictive value of MHR in KD complicated with CALs, and logistic regression analysis was used to screen independent risk factors. We constructed a nomogram model and performed internal validation.

RESULTS

A total of 568 KD patients were enrolled in the study. MHR was significantly higher in KD patients complicated with CALs and was identified as an independent risk factor for CALs (OR: 1.604, 95% CI: 1.292-1.990). The area under the ROC curve for MHR in predicting CALs was 0.661. The C-index of the nomogram model constructed by incorporating MHR was 0.725 (95% CI: 0.682-0.768), and the calibration curve revealed good agreement between the predicted and actual probabilities.

CONCLUSIONS

MHR may not be suitable as a single biomarker to predict the occurrence of CALs, but the nomogram model constructed in combination with other independent risk factors had acceptable predictive performance.

IMPACT

The inflammatory response plays an important role in the pathogenesis of Kawasaki disease. The monocyte-to-high-density lipoprotein ratio is a novel systemic inflammation marker. The monocyte-to-high-density lipoprotein ratio is an independent risk factor for Kawasaki disease complicated with coronary artery lesions. The nomogram established by incorporating the monocyte-to-high-density lipoprotein ratio has satisfactory predictive performance for coronary artery lesion formation.

The neutrophil: A key resourceful agent in immune‐mediated vasculitis

The term "vasculitis" refers to a group of rare immune-mediated diseases characterized by the dysregulated immune system attacking blood vessels located in any organ of the body, including the skin, lungs, and kidneys. Vasculitides are classified according to the size of the vessel that is affected. Although this observation is not specific to small-, medium-, or large-vessel vasculitides, patients show a high circulating neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio, suggesting the direct or indirect involvement of neutrophils in these diseases. As first responders to infection or inflammation, neutrophils release cytotoxic mediators, including reactive oxygen species, proteases, and neutrophil extracellular traps. If not controlled, this dangerous arsenal can injure the vascular system, which acts as the main transport route for neutrophils, thereby amplifying the initial inflammatory stimulus and the recruitment of immune cells. This review highlights the ability of neutrophils to "set the tone" for immune cells and other cells in the vessel wall. Considering both their long-established and newly described roles, we extend their functions far beyond their direct host-damaging potential. We also review the roles of neutrophils in various types of primary vasculitis, including immune complex vasculitis, anti-neutrophil cytoplasmic antibody-associated vasculitis, polyarteritis nodosa, Kawasaki disease, giant cell arteritis, Takayasu arteritis, and Behçet's disease.

Prediction Model Risk-of-Bias Assessment Tool for coronary artery lesions in Kawasaki disease

Objective

To review and critically appraise articles on prediction models for coronary artery lesions (CALs) in Kawasaki disease included in PubMed, Embase, and Web of Science databases from January 1, 1980, to December 23, 2021.

Materials and methods

Study screening, data extraction, and quality assessment were performed by two independent reviewers, with a statistics expert resolving discrepancies. Articles that developed or validated a prediction model for CALs in Kawasaki disease were included. The Critical Appraisal and Data Extraction for Systematic Reviews of Prediction Modeling Studies checklist was used to extract data from different articles, and Prediction Model Risk-of-Bias Assessment Tool (PROBAST) was used to assess the bias risk in different prediction models. We screened 19 studies from a pool of 881 articles.

Results

The studies included 73-5,151 patients. In most studies, univariable logistic regression was used to develop prediction models. In two studies, external data were used to validate the developing model. The most commonly included predictors were C-reactive protein (CRP) level, male sex, and fever duration. All studies had a high bias risk, mostly because of small sample size, improper handling of missing data, and inappropriate descriptions of model performance and the evaluation model.

Conclusion

The prediction models were suitable for the subjects included in the studies, but were poorly effective in other populations. The phenomenon may partly be due to the bias risk in prediction models. Future models should address these problems and PROBAST should be used to guide study design.

Neutrophil to Lymphocyte Ratio as a Biomarker for Predicting the Coronary Artery Abnormality in Kawasaki Disease: A Meta-Analysis

We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis on the relationship between the neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio (NLR) and coronary artery abnormalities (CAA) in patients with Kawasaki disease (KD), according to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) statements. We searched PubMed, Scopus, Web of Science, Embase, TRIP, Google Scholar, and ProQuest up to the 8th of August 2022. This was done to retrieve eligible studies. No date or language limitations were considered in this study. Methodology quality assessment was conducted according to the Newcastle–Ottawa scale (NOS). Standard mean difference (SMD) and its 95% confidence interval (CI) were used to depict the pooled continuous variables. Finally, 17 articles with 6334 KD patients, of whom 1328 developed CAA, were enrolled in this meta-analysis. NLR level was significantly higher in KD patients with CAA compared to those without CAA (SMD =0.81; 95% CI =0.05–1.57, P = 0.03). In addition, NLR level was significantly higher in patients with coronary artery aneurysms than those without coronary artery aneurysms (SMD =2.29; 95% CI =0.18–4.41, P = 0.03). However, no significant association between NLR and coronary artery dilation was observed in this meta-analysis (SMD =0.56; 95% CI = -0.86–1.99). There was no publication bias for the pooled SMD of NLR for coronary artery abnormality in KD (Egger's test P = 0.82; Begg's test P = 0.32). The NLR may be useful in monitoring CAA development in these patients and may further imply a mechanistic role in potential inflammation that mediates this process.

Immunophenotyping of peripheral blood cells allows to discriminate MIS-C and Kawasaki disease

BACKGROUND

The pathogenesis of the novel described multisystem inflammatory syndrome in children (MIS-C) and Kawasaki disease (KD) is still debated as it is not clear if they are the same or different nosological entities. However, for both the diseases a rapid and unequivocal diagnosis is mandatory to start the therapy before the onset of severe complications. In this study, we aimed to evaluate the white cell populations in MIS-C and KD as potential markers to discriminate between the two diseases.

METHODS

We studied white cell populations by flow cytometry in 46 MIS-C and 28 KD patients in comparison to 70 age-matched healthy children.

RESULTS

MIS-C patients had a significant lymphopenia that involved both B and T populations while KD patients showed a significant neutrophilia and thrombocythemia. Granulocyte/lymphocyte ratio helped to diagnose both MIS-C and KD with a high diagnostic sensitivity, while a multivariate analysis of granulocyte and T lymphocyte number contributed to discriminate between the two diseases.

CONCLUSIONS

The relevant lymphopenia observed in MIS-C patients suggests that the disease would be a post-infectious sequel of COVID-19 immunologically amplified by a massive cytokine release, while the significant neutrophilia and thrombocythemia observed in KD confirmed that the disorder has the genesis of a systemic vasculitis. The analysis of a panel of circulating cells may help to early diagnose and to discriminate between the two diseases.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s41231-022-00128-2.

Kawasaki Disease and Coronary Artery Involvement: A Narrative Review

Kawasaki disease is a systemic vasculitis with a risk of developing coronary artery lesions if left untreated. Kawasaki disease can be diagnosed clinically with classical symptoms (conjunctivitis, rash, lymphadenopathy, mucositis, edema of hands and feet), but predicting the risk of developing coronary artery aneurysm remains challenging. The coronary sequelae of Kawasaki disease have significant morbidity and mortality and are the second most common cause of acquired cardiac disease in children. Several genetic and immune factors are involved in the inflammation of coronary artery lesions in Kawasaki disease. Inositol trisphosphate 3-Kinase (ITPKC), Foxp3+, circular RNAs, mannose-binding lectin 2 (MBL2), complement factor H (CFH), kininogen 1 (KNG1), serpin family C member 1 (SERPINC1) and fibronectin 1 (FN1) are the essential genes identified in the pathogenesis of coronary artery lesions in Kawasaki disease. The addition of methylprednisolone to a combination of aspirin and intravenous immunoglobulins and biological agents like anakinra, etanercept, infliximab, and immunosuppressants like cyclosporine prevents the occurrence of coronary artery aneurysms in Kawasaki disease. Since the coronary artery lesions form the second most common cause of acquired cardiac disease in children and the incidence of myocardial infarction is a late complication, the risk stratification for coronary artery aneurysms and follow-up protocols for the prevention of cardiac thrombosis were proposed by the American Heart Association in 2017.

Allergen Tests of Fruit Sensitization Involving Children with Allergic Diseases

Fruit is a kind of plant food which is rich in nutrients and immune-regulating ingredients. A meta-analysis has demonstrated that fruits have a protective effects against asthma. On the other hand, clinical syndromes of allergic reactions to fruits manifest as an oral allergy syndrome. We aimed to investigate the patterns and associated factors of fruit allergen-specific IgE (sIgE) sensitization among patients with suspected clinical symptoms. Data were extracted from the Chang Gung Research Database. Fruit sensitization in Taiwan was evaluated using the presence of IgE antibodies against specific fruits. The overall prevalence of positive sIgE responses to fruit allergens in Taiwan, in order of decreasing importance, was pineapple, kiwi, banana, and papaya. Children aged 0–18 had a higher positive rate of allergic responses to pineapple, kiwi, banana, and papaya than adults over the age of 18. Positive specific IgE for kiwi, banana, or papaya was more frequent in younger than in older children and children with a higher total IgE of both logarithmic (log) and arithmetic values. The analysis of log IgE for pineapple positive vs. negative children determined an optimal cutoff value, log IgE 2.2, with both sensitivity (0.9) and specificity (0.5). Dermatitis was significantly more prevalent in children with positive IgE for pineapple, kiwi, banana, and papaya than negative specific IgE. The highest positive rate of sIgE against fruits was pineapple among children. Even in older children, the positive rate of pineapple allergens was high. IgE discriminates with and without sIgE for pineapple, with an optimal cutoff of 158.5 U/mL.

Prognostic Role of the Neutrophil-to-Lymphocyte Ratio in Intracerebral Hemorrhage: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

The neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) plays an important role in the progression of intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH). An increasing number of studies have reported that a high NLR is correlated with poor clinical outcomes among patients with ICH. Here, we conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to evaluate the prognostic value of NLR in the setting of ICH. We performed a comprehensive search of electronic literature databases to identify all relevant studies evaluating the prognostic role of NLR in patients with ICH. Two researchers independently screened the studies and extracted relevant data. We extracted, pooled, and weighted odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) values using a generic inverse-variance method, and then evaluated the heterogeneity among studies using Q test and I² statistic. Finally, we selected a total of 26 studies including 7,317 patients for the current study. Overall, our results indicated that a high NLR was significantly associated with a poor outcome (OR, 1.32; 95% CI, 1.19–1.46; P < 0.00001), mortality (OR, 1.05; 95% CI, 1.01–1.09; P = 0.02), and neurological deterioration (OR, 1.65; 95% CI, 1.08–2.52; P = 0.02). We did not observe a significant association between NLR and hematoma expansion (OR, 1.04; 95% CI, 0.99–1.08; P = 0.09). Our study indicated that a high NLR is significantly associated with poor clinical outcomes in patients with ICH. As NLR is a simple and easily available biomarker, future studies should focus on exploring its application in the prognostic evaluation of patients with ICH.

Increased Risk of Asthma and Allergic Rhinitis in Patients With a Past History of Kawasaki Disease: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analyses

Background: Allergic diseases are frequently observed in children with Kawasaki disease (KD). However, the evidence supporting the association between KD and allergies has been conflicting. The objective of the current study is to examine the association between KD and allergic diseases. Methods: We conducted an electronic search using PubMed, Embase, and the Cochrane through 24 July 2021. The inclusion criteria consisted of studies that examined the prevalence of allergic diseases in children with a previous diagnosis of KD and in a comparison group. We pooled studies by using a random effects model. The effects of KD on the subsequent risk of allergic diseases were expressed as odds ratio (OR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI). Results: We included a total of four studies that assessed the effect of KD on asthma, allergic rhinitis, and atopic dermatitis vs. non-KD children (KD individuals for asthma, four studies, n = 8,474; allergic rhinitis, four studies, n = 8,474; atopic dermatitis, three studies, n = 8,330). The overall prevalence of asthma, allergic rhinitis, and atopic dermatitis was 9.12, 27.63, and 6.55% among patients with previous KD. The meta-analysis showed a significantly increased risk of asthma (OR:1.437, CI: 1.067-1.937) and allergic rhinitis (OR: 1.726, CI: 1.291-2.307) in patients with KD, compared with the control groups. However, patients with KD did not have a significantly different level of risk of atopic dermatitis (OR: 1.243, 95% CI: 0.857-1.802). Conclusion: This meta-analysis supports that individuals with KD are more likely to have asthma and allergic rhinitis compared to controls.

Treatment of Kawasaki Disease: A Network Meta-Analysis of Four Dosage Regimens of Aspirin Combined With Recommended Intravenous Immunoglobulin

Aspirin was once believed to reduce the mortality of Kawasaki disease (KD) due to its effect on the thrombotic occlusion of coronary arteries. However, conflicting evidence has been found regarding aspirin treatment and its benefit in patients with acute KD. We compared the efficacy of different aspirin doses in acute KD. A literature search of PubMed, EMBASE, and Cochrane databases was conducted to identify studies comparing different doses of aspirin for acute KD. The primary outcome of interest was coronary artery lesions (CAL). We used random-effects network meta-analysis. Six retrospective studies, including 1944 patients receiving aspirin in doses of 0, 3-5, 30-50, or 80-100 mg/kg/day, were selected. The risks of CAL were not significantly different for the various doses of aspirin compared to the placebo: odds ratio (OR) was 1.10 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.70-1.71] for patients with aspirin 3-5 mg/kg/day; OR = 1.23 (95% CI: 0.67-2.26) for aspirin 30-50 mg/kg/day, and OR = 1.59 (95% CI: 0.74, 3.421) for 80-100 mg/kg/day. The P-score ranged from 0.76 for placebo to 0.19 for aspirin 80-100 mg/kg/day. The different doses of aspirin exhibited no significant difference with regard to the efficacy of CAL or with the secondary outcomes of intravenous immunoglobulin resistance or hospital stays for acute KD. Therefore, we found that treatment without any aspirin is not inferior to other doses of aspirin and can also slightly reduce the risk of CAL.

Long-Term Hypermethylation of FcγR2B in Leukocytes of Patients with Kawasaki Disease

The Fc gamma receptor family contains several activating receptors and the only inhibitory receptor, FcγR2B. In this study, we investigated the dynamic methylation change of FcγR2B in different stages of Kawasaki disease (KD). We enrolled a total of 116 participants, which included patients with febrile diseases as controls and KD patients. Whole blood cells of KD patients were collected prior to intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIG) treatment (KD1), three to seven days after IVIG (KD2), three weeks after IVIG treatment (KD3), six months after IVIG (KD4), and one year after IVIG treatment (KD5). In total, 76 KD patients provided samples in every stage. Leukocytes of controls were also recruited. We performed DNA extraction and pyrosequencing. FcγR2B methylation levels were higher in KD3 compared to both the controls and KD1. A significantly higher methylation of FcγR2B was found in KD5 when compared with KD1. FcγR2B methylation levels in the IVIG-resistant group were lower than those in the IVIG-responsive group at KD1-3 (p = 0.004, 0.004, 0.005 respectively). This study is the first to report the dynamic change of FcγR2B methylation and to demonstrate long-term hypermethylation one year after disease onset. Hypomethylation of FcγR2B is associated with IVIG resistance.

Neutropenia Is Not Associated With the Outcomes in Patients With Kawasaki Disease

Objective: To investigate the outcomes of coronary artery lesions (CALs) and intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIG) resistance in patients with and without neutropenia during the disease course and to explore the relationships between Δ absolute neutrophils count (ΔANC) and the outcomes. Methods: We retrospectively reviewed the medical records of patients hospitalized in Children's Hospital of Soochow University with a main diagnosis of KD during January 2019 and December 2019. 1:4 propensity score matching was carried out to adjust the baseline characteristics. Smoothed plots and threshold effect analyses were performed to reveal the relationships between ΔANC and the outcomes. Results: Of the 438 patients enrolled, 75 (17.1%) were neutropenia cases and 363 (82.9%) were non-neutropenia cases. Patients with neutropenia were younger, had lower levels of initial ANC, white blood cell (WBC) count and C-reactive protein (CRP). Propensity score matching included 75 neutropenia and 247 non-neutropenia patients. No significant difference was found between neutropenia and non-neutropenia groups regarding CALs, coronary artery aneurysms, irregular coronary lumen, IVIG resistance and days of fever duration. There was a non-linear relationship between ΔANC and IVIG resistance. However, threshold effect analysis showed the incidence of IVIG resistance decreased with increasing ΔANC before the turning point (ΔANC = 1.6) (OR = 0.65, 95% CI = 0.50-0.8.4 P = 0.001). On the other hand, there was a linear relationship between ΔANC and CALs, even after adjusting the confounders (OR = 1.06, 95% CI = 1.02-1.11, P = 0.008). Conclusions: Neutropenia after IVIG was not exactly associated with the outcomes. However, ΔANC was in relation to CALs and IVIG resistance.

Utilizing Network Pharmacology to Explore the Possible Mechanism of Coptidis Rhizoma in Kawasaki Disease

Background: The purpose of the research is to identify the main active ingredients in Coptidis Rhizoma (CR) and explore the possible molecular mechanisms in the treatment of Kawasaki disease (KD). Materials and Methods: A total of 58 children with KD were randomly divided into a control group and a Berberine treatment group. The therapeutic indicators of the two groups before and after treatment were compared. Then, compounds and drug targets of CR from the TCMSP, SWISS, SEA, and the STITCH were collected, and targeted KD genes were retrieved from the DisGeNET, DrugBank, and GeneCards databases. The network pharmacology approach involved network construction, target prediction, and module analysis. GO and KEGG enrichment analysis were performed to investigate the possible pathways related to CR for KD treatments. Finally, protein expression was determined to verify the core targets using Western blotting in the cell experiment. Results: In total, nine compounds, 369 relative drug targets, and 624 KD target genes were collected in the above database. The network analysis revealed that 41 targets might be the therapeutic targets of CR on KD. GO and KEGG enrichment analysis revealed that the biological processes, namely, response to hormone, response to inorganic substance, and enzyme-linked receptor protein signaling pathway, and Pathways in cancer, Toll-like receptor signaling pathway, and Pancreatic cancer are the most significant. Protein expression of CASP3, PTGS2, and SRC was upregulated and AKT1 and ERK were downregulated. Conclusion: We provided useful resources to understand the molecular mechanism and the potential targets for novel therapy of KD.

The Expression of Glycoprotein Genes in the Inflammatory Process of Kawasaki Disease

Background: Kawasaki disease (KD) is the most common form of febrile coronary vasculitis disease to occur in children. Early diagnosis and proper therapy can prevent the complication of coronary artery lesions (CAL). The main pathogenesis of KD is an inflammatory process related to the host's genetic characteristics. In innate human immunity, the interaction of leukocytes and glycoprotein plays an important role against microbes. The purpose of our study was to understand the role of leukocytes' glycoprotein genes during the acute phase of KD. Materials and Methods: We enrolled a total of 97 subjects from a medical center. Of those, 24 subjects were healthy controls, and 24 subjects were fever controls; the other 49 subjects were KD patients who had had blood samples taken both before and after IVIG treatment. We collected the total RNA from leukocytes and performed a quantitative polymerase chain reaction for the HP, GRP84, and CLEC4D genes in real time. Results: Compared with both the healthy and fever controls, the upregulation of HP, GRP84, and CLEC4D genes was significant in peripheral leukocytes during acute-phase KD. The transcriptional level of these respective genes not only demonstrated a positive correlation with each other, but were also effective predictors for KD (all auROC >0.87) according to the ROC curve analysis. The hyper-expression of these three genes was significantly associated with IVIG resistance, but not CAL formation. Conclusions: Our study demonstrates that the expression of HP, GRP84, and CLEC4D genes of leukocytes play an important role in the pathogenesis and primary IVIG response during the acute inflammatory process of KD.