Quantifying the contribution of changes in healthcare expenditures and smoking to the reversal of the trend in life expectancy in the Netherlands

The trade-off between equity and efficiency in population health gain: Making it real

Two fundamental goals of health systems are to maximise overall population health gain (referred to as efficiency) and to minimise unfair health inequalities (equity). Often there is a trade-off in maximising efficiency vis a vis equity and the relative weight given to one goal over the other is acknowledged to be essentially a value judgement. Health systems necessarily make those value judgements but in making them would benefit from relevant and accurate opportunity cost information. Unfortunately the development of practical tools to measure equity-efficiency trade-offs has lagged theoretical advances in this area. We address this gap by presenting a practical technique to reveal opportunity costs of equity (and efficiency) gains in decentralised population-based health systems, applying stochastic data envelopment analysis to ethnic-specific life expectancy (LE) changes for 20 New Zealand (NZ) District Health Boards for the inter-census period 2006-2013, thereby deriving a notional health frontier from 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Four different ways to increase health equity emerge. These show that a trade-off between equity and efficiency does not always exist. In particular, improving both productive efficiency and allocative efficiency (up to its maximum) can also yield gains in equity through reductions in LE inequalities. However, in NZ's case, the opportunity cost (in sacrificed European life-years) of achieving gains in equity beyond the point of maximum productive and allocative efficiency is relatively high, even for quite small reductions in the LE gap between Māori and European populations. This high opportunity cost may explain why, despite governments' strong rhetorical commitment to equity, NZ's health gains have not strayed far from the path of maximising allocative efficiency. Nevertheless, this opportunity cost could be reduced significantly by measures which shift the health frontier outward, highlighting the importance of technical and organisational innovation as potential drivers of greater equity in health outcomes.

Rectangularization of the survival curve reconsidered: The maximum inner rectangle approach

Rectangularization of the survival curve-a key analytical framework in mortality research-relies on assumptions that have become partially obsolete in high-income countries due to mortality reductions among the oldest old. We propose refining the concept to adjust for recent and potential future mortality changes. Our framework, the 'maximum inner rectangle approach' (MIRA) considers two types of rectangularization. Outer rectangularization captures progress in mean lifespan relative to progress in maximum lifespan. Inner rectangularization captures progress in lifespan equality relative to progress in mean lifespan. Empirical applications show that both processes have generally increased since 1850. However, inner rectangularization has displayed country-specific patterns since the onset of sustained old-age mortality declines. Results from separating premature and old-age mortality, using the MIRA, suggest there has been a switch from reducing premature deaths to extending the premature age range; a shift potentially signalling a looming limit to the share of premature deaths.

Does the Impact of the Tobacco Epidemic Explain Structural Changes in the Decline of Mortality?

Since 1950, most developed countries have exhibited structural changes in mortality decline. This complicates extrapolative forecasts, such as the commonly used Lee–Carter model, that require the presence of a steady long-term trend. This study tests whether the impact of the tobacco epidemic explains the structural changes in mortality decline, as it is presumed in earlier studies. For this purpose, the time index of the Lee-Carter model in males was investigated in 20 developed countries between 1950 and 2011 for possible structural changes. It was found that removing the impact of smoking from mortality trends took away more than half of the 12 detected trend breaks. For the remaining trend breaks, adjusting for smoking attenuated the degree of change in mortality decline. Taking the tobacco epidemic into account should become standard procedure in mortality forecasts to avoid a misleading extrapolation of trends. Nevertheless, more research is needed to identify additional factors, such as health-care policies and innovations in medical treatment, to explain the remaining structural changes.

Did the English strategy reduce inequalities in health? A difference-in-difference analysis comparing England with three other European countries

BACKGROUND

Between 1997 and 2010, the English government pursued an ambitious programme to reduce health inequalities, the explicit and sustained commitment of which was historically and internationally unique. Previous evaluations have produced mixed results. None of these evaluations have, however, compared the trends in health inequalities within England with those in other European countries. We carried out an innovative analysis to assess whether changes in trends in health inequalities observed in England after the implementation of its programme, have been more favourable than those in other countries without such a programme.

METHODS

Data were obtained from nationally representative surveys carried out in England, Finland, the Netherlands and Italy for years around 1990, 2000 and 2010. A modified difference-in-difference approach was used to assess whether trends in health inequalities in 2000-2010 were more favourable as compared to the period 1990-2000 in England, and the changes in trends in inequalities after 2000 in England were then compared to those in the three comparison countries. Health outcomes were self-assessed health, long-standing health problems, smoking status and obesity. Education was used as indicator of socioeconomic position.

RESULTS

After the implementation of the English strategy, more favourable trends in some health indicators were observed among low-educated people, but trends in health inequalities in 2000-2010 in England were not more favourable than those observed in the period 1990-2000. For most health indicators, changes in trends of health inequalities after 2000 in England were also not significantly different from those seen in the other countries.

CONCLUSIONS

In this rigorous analysis comparing trends in health inequalities in England both over time and between countries, we could not detect a favourable effect of the English strategy. Our analysis illustrates the usefulness of a modified difference-in-difference approach for assessing the impact of policies on population-level health inequalities.