Factors associated with under-five mortality in Bhutan: an analysis of the Bhutan National Health Survey 2012

Time to death and its determinants of under-five children in rural Ethiopia by using shared frailty

Under-five (U5M) is one of the most significant and sensitive measures of the community's health. Children who live in rural areas are more likely than those who live in urban areas to die before the age of five. Therefore, the study aimed to assess the Survival status of under-five mortality and its determinants in rural Ethiopia. The 2019 Ethiopia Mini Demographic and Health Survey was used in this study as a secondary source (EMDHS). A total of 4426 weighted under-five children were included in the study. To determine survival time and identify predictors of death among children under the age of five, the Cox's gamma shared frailty model and the Kaplan Meier model, respectively, were used. An adjusted Hazard Ratio (AHR) along with a 95% Confidence Interval (CI) were used to measure the size and direction of the association. The Study showed that in rural Ethiopia, 6.03% of children died before celebrating their first birthday. The median age of under-five mortality in rural Ethiopia was estimated to be 29 Months. The hazard of death among under-five children and those who had given birth to two children in the last five years was 4.99 times less likely to be at risk of dying than those who had given birth to one Child in the previous five years (AHR 4.99, 95% CI 2.97, 8.83). The Study Concluded that under-five mortality remained high in rural Ethiopia. In the final model, the Age of Mothers, Sex of Household, Breastfeeding, Types of Birth, Sex of Child, Educational Level of Mothers, Wealth Index, Child ever born, Marital Status, and Water Source were significant predictors of under-five mortality. Twins and children who are not breastfed should receive additional attention, along with improving water resources for households and mothers income.

Determinants of Neonatal Mortality in Bhutan: A Case-Control Study

More than half of Bhutan's under-five mortality is attributed to neonatal deaths. Despite this, there is a lack of local evidence on determinants of neonatal mortality. It is critical to generate new evidence to accelerate interventions to achieve sufficient reduction of neonatal mortality rate in line to sustainable development goal target 3.2. Thus, this study was aimed at exploring determinants of neonatal mortality in Bhutan. A case-control study was performed with reported neonatal deaths from hospitals and primary health centers between 2018 and 2019. A total of 181 neonatal deaths were included as cases along with three corresponding controls. Epidata and STATA were used for data management and analysis, respectively. A multivariable model was fitted to identify determinants of neonatal mortality. History of obstetric complications (odds ratio [OR] = 3.53; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.48-8.42), intrapartum complications (OR = 3.86; 95% CI = 1.71-8.74) gestational age (OR = 8.07; 95% CI = 2.89-22.52), and Apgar 1 minute (OR = 4.40; 95% CI =1.83-10.59) were associated with neonatal death. Therefore, quality of care during pregnancy and childbirth besides promoting supportive family environment is essential to reduce neonatal mortality.

A bibliometric analysis of sustainable development goals (SDGs): a review of progress, challenges, and opportunities

The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are a global appeal to protect the environment, combat climate change, eradicate poverty, and ensure access to a high quality of life and prosperity for all. The next decade is crucial for determining the planet's direction in ensuring that populations can adapt to climate change. This study aims to investigate the progress, challenges, opportunities, trends, and prospects of the SDGs through a bibliometric analysis from 2015 to 2022, providing insight into the evolution and maturity of scientific research in the field. The Web of Science core collection citation database was used for the bibliometric analysis, which was conducted using VOSviewer and RStudio. We analyzed 12,176 articles written in English to evaluate the present state of progress, as well as the challenges and opportunities surrounding the SDGs. This study utilized a variety of methods to identify research hotspots, including analysis of keywords, productive researchers, and journals. In addition, we conducted a comprehensive literature review by utilizing the Web of Science database. The results show that 31% of SDG-related research productivity originates from the USA, China, and the UK, with an average citation per article of 15.06. A total of 45,345 authors around the world have contributed to the field of SDGs, and collaboration among authors is also quite high. The core research topics include SDGs, climate change, Agenda 2030, the circular economy, poverty, global health, governance, food security, sub-Saharan Africa, the Millennium Development Goals, universal health coverage, indicators, gender, and inequality. The insights gained from this analysis will be valuable for young researchers, practitioners, policymakers, and public officials as they seek to identify patterns and high-quality articles related to SDGs. By advancing our understanding of the subject, this research has the potential to inform and guide future efforts to promote sustainable development. The findings indicate a concentration of research and development on SDGs in developed countries rather than in developing and underdeveloped countries.

Graphical abstract

Effects of household access to water, sanitation, and hygiene services on under-five mortality in Sub-Saharan Africa

Introduction

Sub-Saharan Africa has the highest under-five mortality rate and is among the regions where people have the least access to adequate Water, Sanitation, and Hygiene (WASH) services. The work aimed to investigate the effects of WASH conditions faced by children on under-five mortality in Sub-Saharan Africa.

Methods

We carried out secondary analyses using the Demographic and Health Survey datasets of 30 countries in Sub-Saharan Africa. The study population consisted of children born within 5 years preceding the selected surveys. The dependent variable was the child's status (1 = deceased versus 0 = alive) on the survey day. The individual WASH conditions in which children live were assessed in their immediate environment, i.e., at the level of their households of residence. The other explanatory variables were related to the child, mother, household, and environment. Following a description of the study variables, we identified the predictors of under-five mortality using a mixed logistic regression.

Results

The analyses involved 303,985 children. Overall, 6.36% (95% CI = 6.24-6.49) of children died before their fifth birthday. The percentage of children living in households with access to individual basic WASH services was 58.15% (95% CI = 57.51-58.78), 28.18% (95% CI = 27.74-28.63), and 17.06% (95% CI = 16.71-17.41), respectively. Children living in households using unimproved water facilities (aOR = 1.10; 95% CI = 1.04-1.16) or surface water (aOR = 1.11; 95% CI = 1.03-1.20) were more likely to die before five than those coming from households with basic water facilities. The risk of under-five mortality was 11% higher for children living in households with limited sanitation facilities (aOR = 1.11; 95% CI = 1.04-1.18) than for those with basic sanitation services. We found no evidence to support a relationship between household access to hygiene services and under-five mortality.

Conclusion

Interventions to reduce under-five mortality should focus on strengthening access to basic water and sanitation services. Further studies are needed to investigate the contribution of access to basic hygiene services on under-five mortality.

Analyzing the impact of access to electricity and biomass energy consumption on infant mortality rate: a global perspective

Conserving the lives of newborns has been a long-standing issue around the world, where 2.4 million babies die in the first month of the life. The literature indicates that the important challenges of social development goals around the globe include affordable and easy access to electricity, promotion of sustainable economic development, and provision of better social services and creation of job opportunities which help in reducing infant mortality rate. This calls for the need to probe into this matter minutely and brings up the ways for reducing the infant mortality rate. The present study is an attempt to analyze the impact of rural and urban electrification and biomass energy consumption on infant mortality rate for the period 1990-2020 using the Panel Quantile Regression (PQR) approach. The results of the study show that in both developed and developing countries, biomass energy consumption has positive impact on infant mortality rate, while rural and urban electrification has proposed the inverted U-shaped relationship with infant mortality in different quantile groups. It is also concluded that few developing countries are failed to achieve the maturity of the inverted U-shaped curve while all developed countries have achieved at the maturity stage. This study recommended that for reducing the infant mortality rate, the world should discourage the use of biomass energy and promote the affordable and easy access to electricity on priority basis.

Impact of Drinking Water Source and Sanitation Facility on Malnutrition Prevalence in Children under Three: A Gender-Disaggregated Analysis Using PDHS 2017-18

OBJECTIVES

The proposed research studied the determinants of male and female child malnutrition in Pakistan. More specifically, it observed the role of the sanitation facility and drinking water source as important determinants of malnutrition in a gender analysis.

METHODS

Novel data of 1010 children under three years of age from PDHS 2017-18 were used. A CIAF (Cumulative Index for Anthropometric Failure) was established to assess malnourishment in the children. Discrete-choice logistic methodology was applied in this empirical research to study the likelihood of malnourishment in children.

RESULTS

The logistic regression results depicted that factors such as a child belonging to a deprived area, the status of home wealth, and the education of the mother were common determinants of malnutrition in children. Factors such as a child having diarrhea (OR = 1.55, CI = 0.96-2.50) and the drinking water source (OR = 0.62, CI = 0.37-1.03) were separate prominent predictors of malnutrition in male children whereas the sanitation facility was the main determinant of malnutrition in female children (OR = 0.64, CI = 0.43-0.95).

CONCLUSION

This study concludes that important links exist between the drinking water source and male child malnutrition and between sanitation facilities and female child malnutrition.

Risk factors of mortality among children under age five in Awi Zone, northwest Ethiopia

BACKGROUND

Globally, under-five mortality rates have dropped, but in Ethiopia, the under-five mortality rate is still high. In Amhara region, the death of children under the age of five is still a public health problem. This study assessed the risk factors of mortality among children under age five in Awi Zone.

METHOD

A community-based cross-sectional study was conducted from December 1, 2020, up to April 30, 2021. Data entry and analysis were conducted using SPSS version 26 and Stata version 16, respectively. A zero-inflated Poisson regression model was fitted to identify the risk factors of under-five mortality.

RESULT

Out of the 1,340 mothers in the Awi zone, 11.9% of women lost at least one child. Single births (IRR = 0.598, 95% CI: 0.395, 0.906), fathers whose level of education is secondary or above(IRR = 0.223, 95% CI: 0.064, 0.782), mothers who completed their secondary and above education level(IRR = 0.116, 95% CI: 0.014, 0.971), mothers who have birth interval greater than 24 months (IRR = 0.619,95% CI: 0.417, 0.917), 8 and above family size the households (IRR = 0.543, 95% CI: 0.302, 0.976), 31 and above mother age groups (IRR = 0.296, 95% CI: 0.093, 0.943), medium households of mothers (IRR = 0.540, 95% CI: 0.316, 0.920), working mothers (IRR = 1.691, 95% CI: 1.040, 2.748) and mothers who had not antenatal visits during pregnancy (IRR = 2.060, 95% CI: 1.259, 3.371) were significant factors of under-five mortality.

CONCLUSION

Mother's age group, preceding birth interval, family size, wealth index, duration of pregnancy, antenatal visits during pregnancy, types of birth, mother's education level, husband's education level, and place of delivery were significant factors of under-five mortality in Awi zone. So, Awi zone public health institute, Awi zone children's and youth office, and other relevant bodies should work to reduce under-five mortality by focusing on child mortality issues.

Machine Learning Algorithms for understanding the determinants of under-five Mortality

Background

Under-five mortality is a matter of serious concern for child health as well as the social development of any country. The paper aimed to find the accuracy of machine learning models in predicting under-five mortality and identify the most significant factors associated with under-five mortality.

Method

The data was taken from the National Family Health Survey (NFHS-IV) of Uttar Pradesh. First, we used multivariate logistic regression due to its capability for predicting the important factors, then we used machine learning techniques such as decision tree, random forest, Naïve Bayes, K- nearest neighbor (KNN), logistic regression, support vector machine (SVM), neural network, and ridge classifier. Each model’s accuracy was checked by a confusion matrix, accuracy, precision, recall, F1 score, Cohen’s Kappa, and area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUROC). Information gain rank was used to find the important factors for under-five mortality. Data analysis was performed using, STATA-16.0, Python 3.3, and IBM SPSS Statistics for Windows, Version 27.0 software.

Result

By applying the machine learning models, results showed that the neural network model was the best predictive model for under-five mortality when compared with other predictive models, with model accuracy of (95.29% to 95.96%), recall (71.51% to 81.03%), precision (36.64% to 51.83%), F1 score (50.46% to 62.68%), Cohen’s Kappa value (0.48 to 0.60), AUROC range (93.51% to 96.22%) and precision-recall curve range (99.52% to 99.73%). The neural network was the most efficient model, but logistic regression also shows well for predicting under-five mortality with accuracy (94% to 95%)., AUROC range (93.4% to 94.8%), and precision-recall curve (99.5% to 99.6%). The number of living children, survival time, wealth index, child size at birth, birth in the last five years, the total number of children ever born, mother’s education level, and birth order were identified as important factors influencing under-five mortality.

Conclusion

The neural network model was a better predictive model compared to other machine learning models in predicting under-five mortality, but logistic regression analysis also shows good results. These models may be helpful for the analysis of high-dimensional data for health research.

Trends of under-five mortality and associated risk factors in Zambia: a multi survey analysis between 2007 and 2018

Background

Mortality at a young age is key to public health measures. This study aims to describe the burden, trend, and associated factors of under-five mortality rate (U5MR) in Zambia from 2007-to-2018.

Method

A sample of 29,274 children under-five were analyzed from the Zambia demographic and health survey (ZDHS). Univariate and bivariate analysis were used to identify factors influencing U5M.

Result

Pooled prevalence of U5MR in Zambia was 84.4/ 1000 live-births. Over 15 years, U5M has declined by 49% (from 118.7 to 60.5/1000 live-births). Compared to children of teenage (≤19 years) mothers the likelihood of U5M was lower by 24 to 37% among children of 20 to 34 years old mothers. The likelihood of U5M was lower by 23% (AOR, 0.77 95%CI, 0.58–1.04) for poorest, 27% (AOR, 0.73 95%CI, 0.55–0.98) for poorer, and 19% (AOR, 0.81 95%CI, 0.62–1.07) for middle as compared to the richest households. The likelihood of U5M was 21% (AOR, 0.79 95%CI, 0.67–0.93) lower among rural residents. Multiple-born children died 2.54 times (95%CI, 1.95–3.98) higher than the single-born. Male children (AOR, 1.28, 95% CI, 1.23–1.46), smaller than average birth size (AOR, 1.78; 95% CI, 1.52–2.09), and no ANC visit (AOR, 3.17, 95% CI, 2.74–3.67) were associated with U5M. The likelihoods of U5M were significantly higher in the Eastern, Luapula, and Muchinga regions than in the Central.

Conclusion

This study revealed that Zambia has made a gain on child survival. Further efforts targeting mothers, children, and provinces are needed to scale up the decline and achieve the SDG3.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12887-022-03362-7.

Trend and correlates of under-5 mortality in Ethiopia: A multilevel model comparison of 2000-2016 EDHS data

Objectives:

The main objectives of this article were to answer (1) what is the trend of under-5 mortality from 2000 to 2016 Ethiopian Demographic and Health Survey? (2) What are the correlates that contribute to under-5 mortality in Ethiopia?

Methods:

The data used in this study were obtained from 2000, 2005, 2011, and 2016 Ethiopian Demographic and Health Survey data. We used multivariable three-level logistic regression model to predict under-5 mortality, with sex of a child, preceding birth interval, birth order, place of delivery, weight of child at birth, and plurality as first-level variables; mother’s education level, wealth index, mother’s age at first birth, and sex of household head as second-level variables; and residence and survey time as third-level variables.

Results:

The under-5 mortality declined from 166 deaths per 1000 live birth in 2000 to 67 deaths per 1000 live births in 2016. The odds of under-5 mortality among children with rural residence were 2.81 times greater than among children with urban residence. Moreover, the odds of under-5 mortality were higher among mothers who gave birth with preceding birth intervals of less than 24 months. A child whose preceding birth interval was less than 24 months had a 0.235, 0.174, 0.143, and 0.107 predicted probability of dying in the years 2000, 2005, 2011, and 2016, respectively.

Conclusion:

Child mortality varied across time in Ethiopia. Understanding both the time-varying nature of the correlates and changes in the type of their associations can help to explain some of the decreases in child mortality rates. Direction and/or presence of a relationship between these correlates and child mortality significantly interacted with time. Therefore, to mitigate the burden of under-5 mortality, the concerned body should provide awareness to the community.

Association of maternal high-risk fertility behavior and under-five mortality in Ethiopia: Community-based survey

Background

High-risk fertility behavior is a major public health concern in low and middle-income countries including Ethiopia. Some studies show that the relationship between high-risk fertility behavior and child mortality has analyzed each fertility behavior individually. Yet, there are limited studies that have analyzed outcomes associated with the joint impact of high-risk fertility behaviors. Therefore, the objective of this study was to examine the individual and combined influence of high-risk fertility behavior on under-five mortalities in Ethiopia.

Methods

Data from the 2016 Ethiopian Demographic and Health Survey were used analyzed. A total of 10,773 mothers who gave live births were included in the final analysis. Both descriptive and bivariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed using STATA V.14.

Results

Overall, 62.1%, 24.0%, and 2.3% of women experienced at least one, two, and three high-risk fertility behaviors, respectively. In the multivariable analysis, under-five mortality was significantly associated with a combination of two or more maternal high-risk fertility behaviors. The odds of under-five mortality among children of women who were engaged in a combination of two high-risk fertility behaviors (AOR = 2.17, 95%CI: 1.52–3.08) and three high-risk fertility behaviors (AOR = 3.69, 95%CI:1.80, 7.55) was higher compared to children of women who have not engaged any high-risk fertility behaviors.

Conclusion

This study revealed that a single high-risk fertility behavior was not associated with under-five mortality, yet the presence of two or more maternal high-risk fertility behaviors was an important factor that increased the likelihood of under-five child death. Thus, special emphasis should be given to children of women who engage in a combination of high-risk fertility behaviors. Furthermore, more emphasis should be placed on increasing access to family planning services and raising awareness about high-risk reproductive behaviors among Ethiopian women.

Complex Survival System Modeling for Risk Assessment of Infant Mortality Using a Parametric Approach

Pakistan is still one of the five countries contributing to half of the child deaths worldwide and holds a low ratio of infant survival. A high rate of poverty, low level of education, limited health facilities, rural-urban inequalities, and political uncertainty are the main reasons for this condition. Survival models that evaluate the performance of models over simulated and real data set may serve as an effective technique to determine accurate complex systems. The present study proposed an efficient extension of the recent parametric technique for risk assessment of infant mortality to address complex survival systems in the presence of extreme observations. This extended method integrated four distributions with the basic algorithm using a real data set of infant survival without extreme observations. The proposed models are compared with the standard partial least squares-Cox regression (PLS-CoxR), and higher efficiency of these proposed algorithms is observed for handling complex survival time systems for risk assessment. The algorithm is also used to analyze simulated data set for further verification of results. The optimal model revealed that the mother's age, type of residence, wealth index, permission to go to a medical facility, distance to a health facility, and awareness about tuberculosis significantly affected the survival time of infants. The flexibility and continuity of extended parametric methods support the implementation of public health surveillance data effectively for data-oriented evaluation. The findings may support projecting targeted interventions, producing awareness, and implementing policies planned to reduce infant mortality.

Time to under-five mortality and its predictors in rural Ethiopia: Cox-gamma shared frailty model

Background

Under-five mortality (U5M) is one of the most important and sensitive indicators of the health status of the community. Despite there having been a substantial reduction in U5M since 1990, its rate is still high in Sub-Saharan African countries. Thus, this study aimed to assess time to under-five mortality and its predictors in rural Ethiopia.

Methods

This study utilized a secondary analysis of the 2016 Ethiopia Demographic and Health Survey (EDHS). A total of 9,807 weighted under-five children selected at different stages were included in the analysis. The Kaplan-Meier and Cox’s-gamma shared frailty models were used to estimate survival time and to identify predictors of under-five mortality, respectively. An adjusted Hazard Ratio (AHR) along with a 95% Confidence Interval (CI) was used to measure the effect size and direction of the association.

Results

The study indicated that 6.69% (95% CI: 6.13, 7.30) of children died before celebrating their fifth birthday in rural Ethiopia. Of all the deaths, the median time to death was 27 months. After controlling the effect of cluster and other confounding factors, female sex (AHR = 0.62, 95% CI: 0.52, 0.75), ever born greater than five children (AHR = 1.40, 95% CI: 1.07, 1.83), very large size at birth (AHR = 1.33, 95% CI: 1.03 1.71), very small size at birth (AHR = 1.41, 95% CI: 1.10, 1.82), twin pregnancy (AHR = 3.5, 95% CI: 2.47, 4.88), not ever breastfeeding (AHR = 11.29, 95% CI: 9.03, 14.12), unimproved latrine (AHR = 3.44, 95% CI: 1.91, 6.17), covered by health insurance (AHR = 0.29, 95% CI: 0.12, 0.70) were predictors of under-five mortality.

Conclusions

Still under-five mortality was high in rural Ethiopia as compared to the global under-five mortality rate. In the final model, sex of a child, the total number of children ever born, children’s size at birth, type of pregnancy, breastfeeding, type of toilet, and being covered by health insurance were significant predictors of under-five mortality. Further emphasis should be given to twin and not breastfeeding children, as well as households’ better encouraging membership of community health insurance and utilization of improved latrines.

Time to death and its determinants among under-five children in Sub-Saharan Africa using the recent (2010-2018) demographic and health survey data: country-based shared frailty analyses

Background

Substantial global progress has been made in reducing under-five mortality since 1990, yet progress is insufficient to meet the sustainable development goal of 2030 which calls for ending preventable child deaths. There are disproportional survivals among children in the world. Therefore, the study aimed to assess the Survival status of under-five mortality and determinants in Sub-Saharan African Countries using the recent DHS data.

Methods

The data was retrieved from the birth record file from the standard Demographic and Health Survey dataset of Sub-Saharan Africa countries. Countries that have at least one survey between 2010 and 2018 were retrieved. Parametric shared frailty survival analysis was employed.

Results

A total of 27,221 (7.35%) children were died before celebrating their fifth birthday. Children at an early age were at higher risk of dying and then decrease proportionally with increased age. The risk of death among rich and middle family were lowered by 18 and 8% (AHR =0.82, 95% CI: 0.77-0.87) and (AHR = 0.92, 95% CI: 0.87-0.97) respectively, the hazard of death were 11, 19, 17, 90 and 55% (AHR = 1.06, 95% CI: 1.00-1.12), (AHR = 1.11,95%CI:1.04-1.19), (AHR = 1.17, 95% CI:1.12-1.23), (AHR = 1.90, 95%CI: 1.78-2.04) and (AHR = 1.55, 95% CI:1.47-1.63) higher than among children in rural, use unimproved water, delivered at home, born less than 18 months and between 18 and 23 months birth intervals respectively. The hazard of death was 7% among females and low birth weights (AHR = 0.93, 95%CI: 0.90 – 0.97) and (AHR = 0.93 95%CI: 0.89-0.97) respectively. There was also a significant association between multiple births and birth orders (AHR = 2.11, 95%CI: 2.51 – 2.90), (AHR = 3.01, 95%CI: 2.85-3.19) respectively.

Conclusions

Death rate among under-five children was higher at an early age then decreases as age advanced. Wealth status, residence, water source, place of delivery, sex of the child, plurality, birth size, preceding birth interval, and birth order were the most predictor variables. The health care program should be designed to encourage a healthy family structure. The health care providers should intervene in the community to inspire maternal health services.

Under-5 mortality in sub-Saharan Africa: is maternal age at first childbirth below 20 years a risk factor?

OBJECTIVES

This study aimed at examining the association between young maternal age at first childbirth and under-5 mortality in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA).

DESIGN AND SETTING

This cross-sectional study pooled nationally-representative data from the most recent Demographic and Health Surveys conducted in 30 countries in SSA from 2010 to 2019.

PARTICIPANTS

116 379 mothers of children under 5.

RESULTS

The prevalence of adolescent childbirth and death in children under 5 in SSA were 57.36% (95% CI 53.73% to 60.99%) and 4.10% (95% CI 3.65% to 4.54%), respectively. Children born to mothers whose first childbirth occurred at <20 years were 11% more likely to die before the age of 5 compared with those whose mothers' first childbirth occurred at age ≥20 years (adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 1.11; 95% CI 1.05 to 1.18). In terms of the covariates, the likelihood of under-5 mortality was higher among children born to single (aOR 1.54; 95% CI 1.41 to 1.67) and cohabiting mothers (aOR 1.10; 95% CI 1.01 to 1.21) compared with married mothers. Children born to mothers who were obese were more likely to die before the age of 5 compared with those born to mothers with normal body weight (aOR 1.17; 95% CI 1.09 to 1.26). The odds of under-5 mortality were higher among children whose weight at birth was <2500 g compared with those whose weight was ≥2500 g at birth (aOR 1.83; 95% CI 1.64 to 2.03).

CONCLUSIONS

The findings call for the need to enhance policies aimed at reducing under-5 mortality in SSA by reducing adolescent pregnancy and childbirth through family planning, comprehensive sexuality education, and the elimination of child marriage. Again, Since under-5 mortality among adolescent mothers is linked with their poor socio-economic status, there is the need for government and non-governmental organisations in SSA to introduce poverty alleviation programmes and improve access to both formal and informal education as a way of enhancing the socioeconomic status of adolescent mothers. Public health education, through continuous advocacy programmes should be done to encourage adolescent mothers to access antenatal care and health facility deliveries as a way of enhancing the survival status of their children. These interventions should be implemented, taking into consideration other characteristics of mothers such marital status and BMI and child's characteristics such as child's weight, which were found to be associated with high under-5 mortality.

Count Models Analysis of Factors Associated with Under-Five Mortality in Ethiopia

Background. Under-five mortality has continued a key challenge to public health in Ethiopia, and other sub-Saharan Africa countries. The threat of under-five mortality is incessant and more studies are needed to generate new scientific evidence. This study aimed to model the number of under-five deaths a mother has experienced in her lifetime and factors associated with it in Ethiopia. Method. A retrospective cross-sectional study based on data obtained from the Ethiopian Demographic and Health Survey (DHS), 2016 was used. The response variable was the total number of under-five children died per mother in her lifetime. Variables such as maternal socioeconomic and demographic characteristics, health, and environmental factors were considered as risk factors of under-five mortality. Hurdle negative binomial (HNB) regression analysis was employed to determine the factors associated with under-five mortality. Results. The data showed that 27.2% (95%CI: 0263, 0.282) of women experienced under-five deaths. The study revealed the age of mother at first birth, the age of mother at the time of under-five mortality occurred, number of household members, household access to electricity, region, educational level of the mother, sex of household head, wealth index, mother residing with husband/partner at the time of under-five mortality occurred as factors associated with under-five mortality. Age of mother at first birth 18 to 24 (IRR = .663; 95%CI: 0.587, 0.749), 25 or higher years old (IRR = 0.424; 95%CI: 0.306, 0.588), access to electricity (IRR = 0.758; 95%CI: 0.588, 0.976), primary education level of the mother (IRR = 0.715; 95%CI: 0.584, 0.875) and the richer wealth index (IRR = 0.785; 95%CI: 0.624, 0.988) were associated with reduced incidence of under-five mortality controlling for other variables in the model. Whereas older age of mother 35 to 39 (IRR = 5.252; 95%CI: 2.992, 9.218), 40 to 44 (IRR = 7.429; 95%CI: 4.188, 13.177), 45 to 49 (IRR = 8.697; 95%CI: 4.853, 15.585), being a resident of the Benishangul-gumuz region (IRR = 1.781; 95%CI: 1.303, 2.434), female household head (IRR = 1.256; 95%CI: 1.034, 1.525) were associated with an increased incidence of under-five mortality. Conclusion. The findings suggested that early age of mothers’ at first birth and old ages of mothers’, female household head and being uneducated were found to increase the incidence of the under-five mortality, whereas access to electricity and living with husband was statistically associated with reduced incidence of under-five mortality. The implication of this study is that policymakers and stakeholders should provide health education for mothers not to give birth at an earlier age and improve living standards to achieve sustainable development goals.

Machine learning approach for predicting under-five mortality determinants in Ethiopia: evidence from the 2016 Ethiopian Demographic and Health Survey

There is a dearth of literature on the use of machine learning models to predict important under-five mortality risks in Ethiopia. In this study, we showed spatial variations of under-five mortality and used machine learning models to predict its important sociodemographic determinants in Ethiopia. The study data were drawn from the 2016 Ethiopian Demographic and Health Survey. We used three machine learning models such as random forests, logistic regression, and K-nearest neighbors as well as one traditional logistic regression model to predict under-five mortality determinants. For each machine learning model, measures of model accuracy and receiver operating characteristic curves were used to evaluate the predictive power of each model. The descriptive results show that there are considerable regional variations in under-five mortality rates in Ethiopia. The under-five mortality prediction ability was found to be between 46.3 and 67.2% for the models considered, with the random forest model (67.2%) showing the best performance. The best predictive model shows that household size, time to the source of water, breastfeeding status, number of births in the preceding 5 years, sex of a child, birth intervals, antenatal care, birth order, type of water source, and mother’s body mass index play an important role in under-five mortality levels in Ethiopia. The random forest machine learning model produces a better predictive power for estimating under-five mortality risk factors and may help to improve policy decision-making in this regard. Childhood survival chances can be improved considerably by using these important factors to inform relevant policies.

Rural-urban differentials in the determinants of under-five mortality in Bhutan

Purpose

The differences in the distribution of factors associated with under-five mortality (UFM) can help explain the rural-urban inequities in UFM. The determinants contributing to UFM in rural and urban areas have not been previously explored in Bhutan. This study examined the factors associated with UFM in rural and urban Bhutan and the role of the factors in explaining UFM disparity.

Design/methodology/approach

The dataset of 6,398 single births (4,999 in rural and 1,399 in urban areas) from the 2012 Bhutan National Health Survey was analyzed. Logistic regression analysis accounting for the complex survey design was performed to investigate the determinants.

Findings

The UFM rate was 2.75 times higher in rural than in urban Bhutan. In rural communities, children of younger mothers, born in households without safe sanitation and electricity, and central and eastern regions had increased UFM odds. Whereas, children born to working mothers and educated fathers, and born in households with non-working household heads had lower UFM odds in urban areas. A higher number of births and smaller household size was associated with an increased UFM odds irrespective of rural-urban residence. Environmental factors were attributable for the largest portion of rural UFM disadvantage.

Originality/value

This study helps to understand the rural-urban differences in the factors influencing UFM in Bhutan. The findings suggest that policies aimed to improve environmental and socioeconomic conditions, women empowerment, and those aimed to enhance health utilization can help reduce the rural-urban child survival disparity and accelerate the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goal target.

Proximate Determinants of Under-Five Mortality in Ethiopia: Using 2016 Nationwide Survey Data

INTRODUCTION

Although there has been a remarkable decline in under-five mortality through the decades, it is still highest in socio-economically disadvantaged countries, including Ethiopia. The benefits of reducing under-five mortality have been highly emphasized in the ambitious target of Sustainable Development Goals. The risk factors of under-five mortality have not been exhaustively researched in Ethiopia using recent nationwide survey data.

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to determine the risk factors of under-five mortality using the recent nationwide survey data.

METHOD

The data source for this study was the 2016 Ethiopian Demographic and Health Survey. Bivariate and multivariable logistic regression analysis was conducted and statistical significance was declared at p value < 0.05.

RESULTS

The data for a total of 10,641 under-five children were analyzed and the under-five mortality rate was 67 per 1000 live births in this study. In the final model, rural residence (AOR=2.0, [1.20, 3.30], P=0.008), mothers who gave birth with preceding birth intervals of shorter than 24 months (AOR=2.12, CI=[1.72, 2.61], P<0.000), multiple births (AOR=4.74, CI=[3.34, 6.69], P<0.000), very small size of child at birth (AOR=1.43, CI= [1.10, 1.85], P=0.007), and being male (AOR=1.30, CI=[1.07, 1.57], P<0.008) showed significant association with under-five mortality compared to their counterparts.

CONCLUSION

Under-five mortality was significantly associated with place of residence, preceding birth interval, plurality, size of child at birth, and sex of the child. Thus, special emphasis should be placed on children with rural residence, preceding birth interval of shorter than 24 months, very small size of the child at birth, and male children.