UK prevalence of underlying conditions which increase the risk of severe COVID-19 disease: a point prevalence study using electronic health records

Use Cases Requiring Privacy-Preserving Record Linkage in Paediatric Oncology

Large datasets in paediatric oncology are inherently rare. Therefore, it is paramount to fully exploit all available data, which are distributed over several resources, including biomaterials, images, clinical trials, and registries. With privacy-preserving record linkage (PPRL), personalised or pseudonymised datasets can be merged, without disclosing the patients' identities. Although PPRL is implemented in various settings, use case descriptions are currently fragmented and incomplete. The present paper provides a comprehensive overview of current and future use cases for PPRL in paediatric oncology. We analysed the literature, projects, and trial protocols, identified use cases along a hypothetical patient journey, and discussed use cases with paediatric oncology experts. To structure PPRL use cases, we defined six key dimensions: distributed personalised records, pseudonymisation, distributed pseudonymised records, record linkage, linked data, and data analysis. Selected use cases were described (a) per dimension and (b) on a multi-dimensional level. While focusing on paediatric oncology, most aspects are also applicable to other (particularly rare) diseases. We conclude that PPRL is a key concept in paediatric oncology. Therefore, PPRL strategies should already be considered when starting research projects, to avoid distributed data silos, to maximise the knowledge derived from collected data, and, ultimately, to improve outcomes for children with cancer.

Long-term health conditions and UK labour market outcomes during the COVID-19 pandemic

BACKGROUND

Long-term health conditions can affect labour market outcomes. COVID-19 may have increased labour market inequalities, e.g. due to restricted opportunities for clinically vulnerable people. Evaluating COVID-19's impact could help target support.

AIM

To quantify the effect of several long-term conditions on UK labour market outcomes during the COVID-19 pandemic and compare them to pre-pandemic outcomes.

METHODS

The Understanding Society COVID-19 survey collected responses from around 20,000 UK residents in nine waves from April 2020-September 2021. Participants employed in January/February 2020 with a variety of long-term conditions were matched with people without the condition but with similar baseline characteristics. Models estimated probability of employment, hours worked and earnings. We compared these results with results from a two-year pre-pandemic period. We also modelled probability of furlough and home-working frequency during COVID-19.

RESULTS

Most conditions (asthma, arthritis, emotional/nervous/psychiatric problems, vascular/pulmonary/liver conditions, epilepsy) were associated with reduced employment probability and/or hours worked during COVID-19, but not pre-pandemic. Furlough was more likely for people with pulmonary conditions. People with arthritis and cancer were slower to return to in-person working. Few effects were seen for earnings.

CONCLUSION

COVID-19 had a disproportionate impact on people with long-term conditions' labour market outcomes.

Modelling COVID-19 Vaccination in the UK: Impact of the Autumn 2022 and Spring 2023 Booster Campaigns

INTRODUCTION

The delivery of COVID-19 vaccines was successful in reducing hospitalizations and mortality. However, emergence of the Omicron variant resulted in increased virus transmissibility. Consequently, booster vaccination programs were initiated to decrease the risk of severe disease and death among vulnerable members of the population. This study aimed to estimate the effects of the booster program and alternative vaccination strategies on morbidity and mortality due to COVID-19 in the UK.

METHOD

A Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) model was used to assess the impact of several vaccination strategies on severe outcomes associated with COVID-19, including hospitalizations, mortality, National Health Service (NHS) capacity quantified by hospital general ward and intensive care unit (ICU) bed days, and patient productivity. The model accounted for age-, risk- and immunity-based stratification of the UK population. Outcomes were evaluated over a 48-week time horizon from September 2022 to August 2023 considering the actual UK autumn 2022/spring 2023 booster campaigns and six counterfactual strategies.

RESULTS

The model estimated that the autumn 2022/spring 2023 booster campaign resulted in a reduction of 18,921 hospitalizations and 1463 deaths, compared with a no booster scenario. Utilization of hospital bed days due to COVID-19 decreased after the autumn 2022/spring 2023 booster campaign. Expanding the booster eligibility criteria and improving uptake improved all outcomes, including averting twice as many ICU admissions, preventing more than 20% additional deaths, and a sevenfold reduction in long COVID, compared with the autumn 2022/spring 2023 booster campaign. The number of productive days lost was reduced by fivefold indicating that vaccinating a wider population has a beneficial impact on the morbidities associated with COVID-19.

CONCLUSION

Our modelling demonstrates that the autumn 2022/spring 2023 booster campaign reduced COVID-19-associated morbidity and mortality. Booster campaigns with alternative eligibility criteria warrant consideration in the UK, given their potential to further reduce morbidity and mortality as future variants emerge.

Vaccination against COVID-19 - risks and benefits in children

Countries in Europe and around the world have taken varying approaches to their policies on COVID-19 vaccination for children. The low risk of severe illness from COVID-19 means that even small risks from vaccination warrant careful consideration. Vaccination appears to result in a decreased risk of severe illness including the paediatric multi-system inflammatory syndrome known to be associated with COVID-19. These risks have already decreased significantly with the emergence of the Omicron variant and its subvariants, and due to widespread population immunity through previous infection. There is a relatively high risk of myocarditis following second doses of mRNA vaccines in adolescent males, although the general course of this condition appears mild.   Conclusion: COVID-19 vaccination only provides a transient reduction in transmission. Currently, insufficient evidence exists to determine the impact of vaccination on post-acute COVID syndromes in children, which are uncommon. What is Known: • Vaccines against COVID-19 have significantly reduced morbidity and mortality around the world. • Whilst countries have universally recommended vaccines for adults and continue to recommend them for vulnerable populations, there has been more variability in recommendations for children. What is New: • In the setting of near universal existing immunity from infection, the majority of the initial benefit in protecting against severe illness has been eroded. • The risks of myocarditis following mRNA vaccination for children is low, but an important consideration given the modest benefits.

Modeling long COVID dynamics: Impact of underlying health conditions

We propose a new mathematical model to investigate the population dynamics of long COVID, with a focus on the impact of chronic health conditions. Our model connects long COVID with the transmission of COVID-19 so as to accurately predict the prevalence of long COVID from the progression of the infection in the host population. The model additionally incorporates the effects of COVID-19 vaccination. We implement the model with data from both the US and the UK to demonstrate the real-world applications of this modeling framework.

Prevalence of nocturnal enuresis among children of Aseer region in Saudi Arabia

Introduction

Nocturnal enuresis (NE) in children is a very common problem managed in pediatric urology. In this study, we present the prevalence of NE in children in Aseer region in Saudi Arabia.

Methodology

This study was conducted as a descriptive cross-sectional survey to estimate the prevalence of NE among 555 Saudi children aged 5-15 years in Aseer region in Saudi Arabia. Data collection was done through a questionnaire, which included questions on sociodemographic data, personal knowledge, enuresis-related characteristics, risk factors, and management modalities.

Results

This study identified a prevalence of enuresis of 24% of the study population, most of whom were boys. The majority of the parents had a high educational level. Clinical characteristics of the study population showed: 9% have a family history of NE, 2.2% have a history of neurological disorder, 10.0% have a history of urinary tract infections, 66.8% have associated daytime urgency, 67% have urine-holding behavior, and 19.5% have associated daytime enuresis of the study population.

Conclusion

Our study found that 24% of children in the Aseer region in Saudi Arabia have NE. Our study finding helps us to understand the prevalence of NE in Aseer region in Saudi Arabia, and this can be applied to other regions in the kingdom. Furthermore, this finding helps us to understand the need to raise awareness in the community about NE and the need to educate the nonpediatric urologist health-care provider about the best management practice for NE.

Modeling the potential public health and economic impact of different COVID-19 booster dose vaccination strategies with an adapted vaccine in the United Kingdom

BACKGROUND

Updating vaccines is essential for combatting emerging coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) variants. This study assessed the public health and economic impact of a booster dose of an adapted vaccine in the United Kingdom (UK).

METHODS

A Markov-decision tree model estimated the outcomes of vaccination strategies targeting various age and risk groups in the UK. Age-specific data derived from published sources were used. The model estimated case numbers, deaths, hospitalizations, medical costs, and societal costs. Scenario analyses were conducted to explore uncertainty.

RESULTS

Vaccination targeting individuals aged ≥ 65 years and the high-risk population aged 12-64 years was estimated to avert 701,549 symptomatic cases, 5,599 deaths, 18,086 hospitalizations, 56,326 post-COVID condition cases, and 38,263 lost quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), translating into direct and societal cost savings of £112,174,054 and £542,758,682, respectively. The estimated economically justifiable price at willingness-to-pay thresholds of £20,000 and £30,000 per QALY was £43 and £61, respectively, from the payer perspective and £64 and £82, respectively, from the societal perspective. Expanding to additional age groups improved the public health impact.

CONCLUSIONS

Targeting individuals aged ≥ 65 years and those aged 12-64 years at high risk yields public health gains, but expansion to additional age groups provides additional gains.

Healthcare resource utilisation and costs of hospitalisation and primary care among adults with COVID-19 in England: a population-based cohort study

OBJECTIVES

To quantify direct costs and healthcare resource utilisation (HCRU) associated with acute COVID-19 in adults in England.

DESIGN

Population-based retrospective cohort study using Clinical Practice Research Datalink Aurum primary care electronic medical records linked to Hospital Episode Statistics secondary care administrative data.

SETTING

Patients registered to primary care practices in England.

POPULATION

1 706 368 adults with a positive SARS-CoV-2 PCR or antigen test from August 2020 to January 2022 were included; 13 105 within the hospitalised cohort indexed between August 2020 and March 2021, and 1 693 263 within the primary care cohort indexed between August 2020 and January 2022. Patients with a COVID-19-related hospitalisation within 84 days of a positive test were included in the hospitalised cohort.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Primary and secondary care HCRU and associated costs ≤4 weeks following positive COVID-19 test, stratified by age group, risk of severe COVID-19 and immunocompromised status.

RESULTS

Among the hospitalised cohort, average length of stay, including critical care stays, was longer in older adults. Median healthcare cost per hospitalisation was higher in those aged 75-84 (£8942) and ≥85 years (£8835) than in those aged <50 years (£7703). While few (6.0%) patients in critical care required mechanical ventilation, its use was higher in older adults (50-74 years: 8.3%; <50 years: 4.3%). HCRU and associated costs were often greater in those at higher risk of severe COVID-19 than in the overall cohort, although minimal differences in HCRU were found across the three different high-risk definitions. Among the primary care cohort, general practitioner or nurse consultations were more frequent among older adults and the immunocompromised.

CONCLUSIONS

COVID-19-related hospitalisations in older adults, particularly critical care stays, were the primary drivers of high COVID-19 resource use in England. These findings may inform health policy decisions and resource allocation in the prevention and management of COVID-19.

COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness against hospitalisation and death of people in clinical risk groups during the Delta variant period: English primary care network cohort study

BACKGROUND

COVID-19 vaccines have been shown to be highly effective against hospitalisation and death following COVID-19 infection. COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness estimates against severe endpoints among individuals with clinical conditions that place them at increased risk of critical disease are limited.

METHODS

We used English primary care medical record data from the Oxford-Royal College of General Practitioners Research and Surveillance Centre sentinel network (N > 18 million). Data were linked to the National Immunisation Management Service database, Second Generation Surveillance System for virology test data, Hospital Episode Statistics, and death registry data. We estimated adjusted vaccine effectiveness (aVE) against COVID-19 infection followed by hospitalisation and death among individuals in specific clinical risk groups using a cohort design during the delta-dominant period. We also report mortality statistics and results from our antibody surveillance in this population.

FINDINGS

aVE against severe endpoints was high, 14-69d following a third dose aVE was 96.4% (95.1%-97.4%) and 97.9% (97.2%-98.4%) for clinically vulnerable people given a Vaxzevria and Comirnaty primary course respectively. Lower aVE was observed in the immunosuppressed group: 88.6% (79.1%-93.8%) and 91.9% (85.9%-95.4%) for Vaxzevria and Comirnaty respectively. Antibody levels were significantly lower among the immunosuppressed group than those not in this risk group across all vaccination types and doses. The standardised case fatality rate within 28 days of a positive test was 3.9/1000 in people not in risk groups, compared to 12.8/1000 in clinical risk groups. Waning aVE with time since 2nd dose was also demonstrated, for example, Comirnaty aVE against hospitalisation reduced from 96.0% (95.1-96.7%) 14-69days post-dose 2-82.9% (81.4-84.2%) 182days+ post-dose 2.

INTERPRETATION

In all clinical risk groups high levels of vaccine effectiveness against severe endpoints were seen. Reduced vaccine effectiveness was noted among the immunosuppressed group.

Comparison of Humoral Antibody Responses and Seroconversion Rates between Two Homologous ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 and mRNA-1273 Vaccination in Patients Undergoing Maintenance Hemodialysis

BACKGROUND

Hemodialysis patients are at an increased risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection and are excluded from preauthorization COVID-19 vaccine trials; therefore, their immunogenicity is uncertain.

METHODS

To compare the antibody responses to homologous ChAdOx1 and mRNA-1273 SARS-CoV-2 vaccination in hemodialysis patients, 103 age- and sex-matched hemodialysis patients with two homologous prime-boost vaccinations were recruited to detect anti-receptor-binding domain (RBD) IgG levels and seroconversion rates (SCRs) 14 days after a prime dose (PD14), before and 28 days after a boost dose (pre-BD0 and BD28).

RESULTS

Both mRNA-1273 and ChAdOx1 vaccinations elicited immunogenicity in study subjects, and the former induced higher anti-RBD IgG levels than the latter. The SCRs of both groups increased over time and varied widely from 1.82% to 97.92%, and were significantly different at PD14 and pre-BD0 regardless of different thresholds. At BD28, the SCRs of the ChAdOx1 group and the mRNA-1273 group were comparable using a threshold ≥ 7.1 BAU/mL (93.96% vs. 97.92%) and a threshold ≥ 17 BAU/mL (92.73% vs. 97.92%), respectively, but they were significantly different using a threshold ≥ 20.2% of convalescent serum anti-RBD levels (52.73% vs. 95.83%). The seroconversion (≥20.2% of convalescent level) at BD28 was associated with mRNA-1273 vaccination after being adjusted for age, sex, body mass index, and the presence of solicited reactogenicity after a prime vaccination.

CONCLUSION

Our prospective, observational cohort indicates that a full prime-boost mRNA-1273 vaccination is likely to provide higher immune protection in hemodialysis patients compared to ChAdOx1, and this population with a prime-boost ChAdOx1 vaccination should be prioritized for a third dose.

Comorbid asthma decreased the risk for COVID-19 mortality in the United Kingdom: Evidence based on a meta-analysis

The study aimed to investigate the influence of comorbid asthma on the risk for mortality among patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in the United Kingdom (UK) by utilizing a quantitative meta-analysis. The pooled odds ratio (OR) with 95% confidence interval (CI) was estimated by conducting a random-effects model. Sensitivity analysis, I² statistic, meta-regression, subgroup analysis, Begg's analysis and Egger's analysis were all implemented. Our results presented that comorbid asthma was significantly related to a decreased risk for COVID-19 mortality in the UK based on 24 eligible studies with 1,209,675 COVID-19 patients (pooled OR = 0.81, 95% CI: 0.71-0.93; I² = 89.2%, P < 0.01). Coming through further meta-regression to seek the possible cause of heterogeneity, none of elements might be responsible for heterogeneity. A sensitivity analysis proved the stability and reliability of the overall results. Both Begg's analysis (P = 1.000) and Egger's analysis (P = 0.271) manifested that publication bias did not exist. In conclusion, our data demonstrated that COVID-19 patients with comorbid asthma might bear a lower risk for mortality in the UK. Furthermore, routine intervention and treatment of asthma patients with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 infection should be continued in the UK.

Usefulness of linked data for infectious disease events: a systematic review

Surveillance is a key public health function to enable early detection of infectious disease events and inform public health action. Data linkage may improve the depth of data for response to infectious disease events. This study aimed to describe the uses of linked data for infectious disease events. A systematic review was conducted using Pubmed, CINAHL and Web of Science. Studies were included if they used data linkage for an acute infectious disease event (e.g. outbreak of disease). We summarised the event, study aims and designs; data sets; linkage methods; outcomes reported; and benefits and limitations. Fifty-four studies were included. Uses of linkage for infectious disease events included assessment of severity of disease and risk factors; improved case finding and contact tracing; and vaccine uptake, safety and effectiveness. The ability to conduct larger scale population level studies was identified as a benefit, in particular for rarer exposures, risk factors or outcomes. Limitations included timeliness, data quality and inability to collect additional variables. This review demonstrated multiple uses of data linkage for infectious disease events. As infectious disease events occur without warning, there is a need to establish pre-approved protocols and the infrastructure for data-linkage to enhance information available during an event.

The association of severe COVID anxiety with poor social functioning, quality of life, and protective behaviours among adults in United Kingdom: a cross-sectional study

BACKGROUND

Anxiety about COVID-19 is common. For most people this is an appropriate response to the loss of livelihoods and loved-ones, disruptions to social networks, and uncertainty about the future. However, for others these anxieties relate to contracting the virus itself, a phenomenon termed COVID anxiety. Little is known about the characteristics of people with severe COVID anxiety or the impact it has on their daily lives.

METHODS

We conducted a two-phase cross-sectional survey of people aged 18 or over who were living in United Kingdom, self-identified as anxious about COVID-19, and had a score of ≥9 on the Coronavirus Anxiety Scale. We recruited participants nationally through online adverts and locally via primary care services in London. Data on demographic and clinical factors were used in multiple regression modelling to examine the greatest contributors to functional impairment, poor health-related quality of life and protective behaviours in this sample of individuals with severe COVID anxiety.

RESULTS

We recruited 306 people with severe COVID anxiety between January and September 2021. Most were female (n = 246, 81.2%); they had a median age of 41 (range = 18-83). The majority of participants also had generalised anxiety (n = 270, 91.5%), depression (n = 247, 85.5%), and a quarter (n = 79, 26.3%) reported a physical health condition which put them at increased risk of hospitalisation with COVID-19. Half had severe social dysfunction (n = 151, 52.4%). One in ten reported never leaving their home, one in three washed all items brought into their house, one in five washed their hands constantly, and one in five of those with children reported not sending them to school because of fears of COVID-19. Increasing co-morbid depressive symptoms best explained functional impairment and poor quality of life after controlling for other factors.

CONCLUSIONS

This study highlights the high degree of co-occuring mental health problems, and the extent of functional impairment and poor health-related quality of life among people with severe COVID anxiety. Further research is needed to establish the course of severe COVID anxiety as the pandemic progresses, and steps that can be taken to support people who experience this distress.

Public health impact of UK COVID-19 booster vaccination programs during Omicron predominance

BACKGROUND

We aimed to estimate the public health impact of booster vaccination against COVID-19 in the UK during an Omicron-predominant period.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

A dynamic transmission model was developed to compare public health outcomes for actual and alternative UK booster vaccination programs. Input sources were publicly available data and targeted literature reviews. Base case analyses estimated outcomes from the UK's Autumn-Winter 2021-2022 booster program during January-March 2022, an Omicron-predominant period. Scenario analyses projected outcomes from Spring and in Autumn 2022 booster programs over an extended time horizon from April 2022-April 2023, assuming continued Omicron predominance, and explored hypothetical program alternatives with modified eligibility criteria and/or increased uptake.

RESULTS

Estimates predicted that the Autumn-Winter 2021-2022 booster program averted approximately 12.8 million cases, 1.1 million hospitalizations, and 290,000 deaths. Scenario analyses suggested that Spring and Autumn 2022 programs would avert approximately 6.2 million cases, 716,000 hospitalizations, and 125,000 deaths; alternatives extending eligibility or targeting risk groups would improve these benefits, and increasing uptake would further strengthen impact.

CONCLUSIONS

Boosters were estimated to provide substantial benefit to UK public health during Omicron predominance. Benefits of booster vaccination could be maximized by extending eligibility and increasing uptake.

Methods to refine and extend a Pregnancy Register in the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink primary care databases

PURPOSE

Real-world data represents a valuable tool for pregnancy research. However, an algorithmic approach is needed to ascertain pregnancy timings from this complex data. The Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) GOLD Pregnancy Register, based on UK Primary care data, has therefore proven to be a valuable research tool. The same algorithmic approach was applied to the CPRD Aurum data to generate an equivalent register in the larger database.

METHODS

Records of female patients registered with a CPRD Aurum contributing practice between the 1st of January 1987 and the 30th of April 2021 were searched for evidence of pregnancy. The algorithm used to generate the CPRD GOLD Pregnancy Register was redeveloped and applied first to CPRD GOLD and then to CPRD Aurum. The resulting CPRD Aurum Pregnancy Register was validated against the CPRD GOLD register, linked Hospital Episode Statistics (HES) and the Office of National Statistics (ONS) live birth data.

RESULTS

There are 16 833 427 pregnancy episodes in the CPRD Aurum Pregnancy Register from 6 724 615 women, more than double the number in CPRD GOLD. The distribution of pregnancy outcome types was comparable between the registers. Across the whole register, there was good concordance between pregnancy episodes found in CPRD Aurum and linked HES. However, both CPRD registers saw a declining number of pregnancy episodes from 2007 onwards, steeper than in HES or the ONS birth data.

CONCLUSIONS

A pregnancy register has been created in CPRD Aurum. Changes in antenatal care policies in the UK have led to declining numbers of pregnancies in EHR primary care data. However, the creation of this pregnancy register has tripled the number of patients in the CPRD Pregnancy Registers and will increase the capacity to study pregnancy in CPRD data, particularly rare or emerging exposures, and outcomes.

Prediction of mortality in hospitalized Egyptian patients with Coronavirus disease-2019: A multicenter retrospective study

We aimed to assess the epidemiological, clinical, and laboratory characteristics associated with mortality among hospitalized Egyptian patients with COVID-19. A multicenter, retrospective study was conducted on all polymerase chain reaction (PCR)-confirmed COVID-19 cases admitted through the period from April to July 2020. A generalized linear model was reconstructed with covariates based on predictor’s statistical significance and clinically relevance. The odds ratio (OR) was calculated by using stepwise logistic regression modeling. A total of 3712 hospitalized patients were included; of them, 900 deaths were recorded (24.2%). Compared to survived patients, non-survived patients were more likely to be older than 60 years (65.7%), males (53.6%) diabetic (37.6%), hypertensive (37.2%), and had chronic renal insufficiency (9%). Non-survived patients were less likely to receive azithromycin (p <0.001), anticoagulants (p <0.001), and steroids (p <0.001). We found that age ≥ 60 years old (OR = 2.82, 95% CI 2.05–3.86; p <0.0001), diabetes mellitus (OR = 1.58, 95% CI 1.14–2.19; p = 0.006), hypertension (OR = 1.69, 95% CI 1.22–2.36; p = 0.002), chronic renal insufficiency (OR = 3.15, 95% CI 1.84–5.38; p <0.0001), tachycardia (OR = 1.65, 95% CI 1.22–2.23; p <0.001), hypoxemia (OR = 5.69, 95% CI 4.05–7.98; p <0.0001), GCS <13 (OR 515.2, 95% CI 148.5–1786.9; p <0.0001), the use of therapeutic dose of anticoagulation (OR = 0.4, 95% CI 0.22–0.74, p = 0.003) and azithromycin (OR = 0.16, 95% CI 0.09–0.26; p <0.0001) were independent negative predictors of mortality. In conclusion, age >60 years, comorbidities, tachycardia, hypoxemia, and altered consciousness level are independent predictors of mortality among Egyptian hospitalized patients with COVID-19. On the other hand, the use of anticoagulants and azithromycin is associated with reduced mortality.

Public health impact of booster vaccination against COVID-19 in the UK during Delta variant dominance in autumn 2021

AIM

To evaluate the public health impact of the UK COVID-19 booster vaccination program in autumn 2021, during a period of SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant predominance.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A compartmental Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered model was used to compare age-stratified health outcomes for adult booster vaccination versus no booster vaccination in the UK over a time horizon of September-December 2021, when boosters were introduced in the UK and the SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant was predominant. Model input data were sourced from targeted literature reviews and publicly available data. Outcomes were predicted COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, post-acute sequelae of COVID-19 (PASC) cases, deaths, and productivity losses averted, and predicted healthcare resources saved. Scenario analyses varied booster coverage, virus infectivity and severity, and time horizon parameters.

RESULTS

Booster vaccination was estimated to have averted approximately 547,000 COVID-19 cases, 36,000 hospitalizations, 147,000 PASC cases, and 4,200 deaths in the UK between September and December 2021. It saved over 316,000 hospital bed-days and prevented the loss of approximately 16.5 million paid and unpaid patient work days. In a scenario of accelerated uptake, the booster rollout would have averted approximately 3,400 additional deaths and 25,500 additional hospitalizations versus the base case. A scenario analysis assuming four-fold greater virus infectivity and lower severity estimated that booster vaccination would have averted over 105,000 deaths and over 41,000 hospitalizations versus the base case. A scenario analysis assuming pediatric primary series vaccination prior to adult booster vaccination estimated that expanding vaccination to children aged ≥5 years would have averted approximately 51,000 additional hospitalizations and 5,400 additional deaths relative to adult booster vaccination only.

LIMITATIONS

The model did not include the wider economic burden of COVID-19, hospital capacity constraints, booster implementation costs, or non-pharmaceutical interventions.

CONCLUSIONS

Booster vaccination during Delta variant predominance reduced the health burden of SARS-CoV-2 in the UK, releasing substantial NHS capacity.

The Interplay between Housing Environmental Attributes and Design Exposures and Psychoneuroimmunology Profile-An Exploratory Review and Analysis Paper in the Cancer Survivors' Mental Health Morbidity Context

Adult cancer survivors have an increased prevalence of mental health comorbidities and other adverse late-effects interdependent with mental illness outcomes compared with the general population. Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) heralds an era of renewed call for actions to identify sustainable modalities to facilitate the constructs of cancer survivorship care and health care delivery through physiological supportive domestic spaces. Building on the concept of therapeutic architecture, psychoneuroimmunology (PNI) indicators-with the central role in low-grade systemic inflammation-are associated with major psychiatric disorders and late effects of post-cancer treatment. Immune disturbances might mediate the effects of environmental determinants on behaviour and mental disorders. Whilst attention is paid to the non-objective measurements for examining the home environmental domains and mental health outcomes, little is gathered about the multidimensional effects on physiological responses. This exploratory review presents a first analysis of how addressing the PNI outcomes serves as a catalyst for therapeutic housing research. We argue the crucial component of housing in supporting the sustainable primary care and public health-based cancer survivorship care model, particularly in the psychopathology context. Ultimately, we illustrate a series of interventions aiming at how housing environmental attributes can trigger PNI profile changes and discuss the potential implications in the non-pharmacological treatment of cancer survivors and patients with mental morbidities.

Characterization of epidemiological distribution and outcome of COVID-19 in patients with hereditary hemorrhagic telangiectasia: a nationwide retrospective multi-centre study during first wave in Italy

Background

Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) continues to have a devastating impact across the world. A number of pre-existing common clinical conditions were reported to represent risk factors for more severe COVID-19 outcomes. Hereditary Hemorrhagic Telangiectasia (HHT) is a rare vascular heritable disorders, characterized by complications secondary to visceral Arterio-Venous Malformations. The impact of HHT, as well as for many Rare Diseases (RDs) on infection susceptibility profile and clinical adverse outcome risk is an unresolved issue.

Objectives

The main objectives were: to assess the clinical features and outcomes of HHT patients infected with COVID-19; to compare the relative infection risk in these patients with the Italian general population throughout the first pandemic wave; to investigate the factors potentially associated with severe COVID-19 outcome in HHT patients, and the possible impact of COVID-19 infection on HHT-related symptoms/complications. Finally, we aimed to estimate how the lockdown-associated wearing of personal protective equipment/individual protection devices could affect HHT-related telangiectasia bleeding frequency.

Methods

The study is a nation-wide questionnaire-based survey, with a multi-Center retrospective cross-sectional design, addressed to the whole Italian HHT population. COVID-19 cases, occurring throughout the first pandemic wave, were collected by a questionnaire-based semi-structured interview. Only the cases ascertained by laboratory confirmation (molecular/serological) were included for epidemiological estimates. Information concerning eventual SarS-Cov-2 infection, as well as regarding HHT-related manifestations and HHT-unrelated co-morbidities were collected by the questionnaire. Prevalence data were compared to Italian general population in the same period.

Results

The survey disclosed 9/296 (3.04%) COVID-19 cases, 8/9 of them being resident in Lombardy, the main epidemic epicenter. Pneumonia was reported by 4/9 patients, which prompted hospital admission and intensive care management in 2 cases. No fatal outcome was recorded. After careful refinement of epidemiological analysis, the survey evidenced overlapping infection risk in HHT compared to general population.

Conclusions

COVID-19 infection profile parallels geographical distribution of epidemic foci. COVID-19 in HHT patients can lead to highly variable clinical profile, likely overlapping with that of general population. The HHT disease does not seem to involve a different approach in terms of hospital admission and access to intensive care with respect to general population.

Risks of covid-19 hospital admission and death for people with learning disability: population based cohort study using the OpenSAFELY platform

OBJECTIVE

To assess the association between learning disability and risk of hospital admission and death from covid-19 in England among adults and children.

DESIGN

Population based cohort study on behalf of NHS England using the OpenSAFELY platform.

SETTING

Patient level data were obtained for more than 17 million people registered with a general practice in England that uses TPP software. Electronic health records were linked with death data from the Office for National Statistics and hospital admission data from NHS Secondary Uses Service.

PARTICIPANTS

Adults (aged 16-105 years) and children (<16 years) from two cohorts: wave 1 (registered with a TPP practice as of 1 March 2020 and followed until 31 August 2020); and wave 2 (registered 1 September 2020 and followed until 8 February 2021). The main exposure group consisted of people on a general practice learning disability register; a subgroup was defined as those having profound or severe learning disability. People with Down's syndrome and cerebral palsy were identified (whether or not they were on the learning disability register).

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE

Covid-19 related hospital admission and covid-19 related death. Non-covid-19 deaths were also explored.

RESULTS

For wave 1, 14 312 023 adults aged ≥16 years were included, and 90 307 (0.63%) were on the learning disability register. Among adults on the register, 538 (0.6%) had a covid-19 related hospital admission; there were 222 (0.25%) covid-19 related deaths and 602 (0.7%) non-covid deaths. Among adults not on the register, 29 781 (0.2%) had a covid-19 related hospital admission; there were 13 737 (0.1%) covid-19 related deaths and 69 837 (0.5%) non-covid deaths. Wave 1 hazard ratios for adults on the learning disability register (adjusted for age, sex, ethnicity, and geographical location) were 5.3 (95% confidence interval 4.9 to 5.8) for covid-19 related hospital admission and 8.2 (7.2 to 9.4) for covid-19 related death. Wave 2 produced similar estimates. Associations were stronger among those classified as having severe to profound learning disability, and among those in residential care. For both waves, Down's syndrome and cerebral palsy were associated with increased hazards for both events; Down's syndrome to a greater extent. Hazard ratios for non-covid deaths followed similar patterns with weaker associations. Similar patterns of increased relative risk were seen for children, but covid-19 related deaths and hospital admissions were rare, reflecting low event rates among children.

CONCLUSIONS

People with learning disability have markedly increased risks of hospital admission and death from covid-19, over and above the risks observed for non-covid causes of death. Prompt access to covid-19 testing and healthcare is warranted for this vulnerable group, and prioritisation for covid-19 vaccination and other targeted preventive measures should be considered.

Social determinants of pertussis and influenza vaccine uptake in pregnancy: a national cohort study in England using electronic health records

OBJECTIVE

To examine the social determinants of influenza and pertussis vaccine uptake among pregnant women in England.

DESIGN

Nationwide population-based cohort study.

SETTING

The study used anonymised primary care data from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink and linked Hospital Episode Statistics secondary care data.

PARTICIPANTS

Pregnant women eligible for pertussis (2012-2015, n=68 090) or influenza (2010/2011-2015/2016, n=152 132) vaccination in England.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Influenza and pertussis vaccine uptake.

RESULTS

Vaccine uptake was 67.3% for pertussis and 39.1% for influenza. Uptake of both vaccines varied by region, with the lowest uptakes in London and the North East. Lower vaccine uptake was associated with greater deprivation: almost 10% lower in the most deprived quintiles compared with the least deprived for influenza (34.5% vs 44.0%), and almost 20% lower for pertussis (57.7% vs 76.0%). Lower uptake for both vaccines was also associated with non-white ethnicity (lowest among women of black ethnicity), maternal age under 20 years and a greater number of children in the household. The associations between all social factors and vaccine uptake were broadly unchanged in fully adjusted models, suggesting the social determinants of uptake were largely independent of one another. Among 3111 women vaccinated against pertussis in their first eligible pregnancy and pregnant again, 1234 (40%) were not vaccinated in their second eligible pregnancy.

CONCLUSIONS

Targeting promotional campaigns to pregnant women who are younger, of non-white ethnicity, with more children, living in areas of greater deprivation or the London or North East regions, has potential to reduce vaccine-preventable disease among infants and pregnant women, and to reduce health inequalities. Vaccination promotion needs to be sustained across successive pregnancies. Further research is needed into whether the effectiveness of vaccine promotion strategies may vary according to social factors.

Case fatality risk of the SARS-CoV-2 variant of concern B.1.1.7 in England, 16 November to 5 February

The SARS-CoV-2 B.1.1.7 variant of concern (VOC) is increasing in prevalence across Europe. Accurate estimation of disease severity associated with this VOC is critical for pandemic planning. We found increased risk of death for VOC compared with non-VOC cases in England (hazard ratio: 1.67; 95% confidence interval: 1.34-2.09; p < 0.0001). Absolute risk of death by 28 days increased with age and comorbidities. This VOC has potential to spread faster with higher mortality than the pandemic to date.